Elaine Spencer
EF3
Today I was poking around on the internet reading some blog posts and articles about the 1974 Super Outbreak (42 years ago today) and also the 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak. The material that I read today enabled me to see, for the first time, exactly how the forecasts issued by SELS/NSSFC prior to each of these outbreaks was worded.
Here is the service assessment done by NOAA after the 1965 outbreak, which contains the text of every severe weather statement issued by SELS and by local Weather Bureau offices during the outbreak:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/palmsunday65.pdf
And here is a blog post with the text of NSSFC's morning outlook on 4/3/74:
http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=100979
What really struck me about these forecasts is how low-key the wording was compared to what one would see today in advance of a major tornado outbreak. For example, the 4/3/74 outlook said that "scattered severe thunderstorms" were expected in all or parts of about 16 states, "with activity spreading eastward during the (forecast) period." That was it -- no mention of the word "tornado". Even that, however, was apparently enough to alert experienced mets that something big was brewing, although to me it doesn't sound all that scary.
Or take the tornado forecasts (they weren't called "watches" yet) issued on 4/11/65: "A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and one or two tornadoes are expected..." One or two tornadoes? I presume that if similar conditions happened today SPC would have MDT and HIGH risk flags flying well ahead of time, openly mentioning the possibility of violent or long tracked tornadoes, and every storm chaser, and Facebook or Twitter user would be screaming "There's a huge tornado outbreak coming!!" days in advance.
My question is: was the low-key wording in "vintage" TOR forecasts/outlooks due to the forecasters not wanting to freak out the public, or was it more because they really didn't have the tools available yet to forecast just how severe a tornado outbreak was going to be? Or was it less difficult to capture the public's attention back in the days before 24-hour saturation news/weather coverage and social media? It's a topic I find intriguing.
Here is the service assessment done by NOAA after the 1965 outbreak, which contains the text of every severe weather statement issued by SELS and by local Weather Bureau offices during the outbreak:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/palmsunday65.pdf
And here is a blog post with the text of NSSFC's morning outlook on 4/3/74:
http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=100979
What really struck me about these forecasts is how low-key the wording was compared to what one would see today in advance of a major tornado outbreak. For example, the 4/3/74 outlook said that "scattered severe thunderstorms" were expected in all or parts of about 16 states, "with activity spreading eastward during the (forecast) period." That was it -- no mention of the word "tornado". Even that, however, was apparently enough to alert experienced mets that something big was brewing, although to me it doesn't sound all that scary.
Or take the tornado forecasts (they weren't called "watches" yet) issued on 4/11/65: "A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and one or two tornadoes are expected..." One or two tornadoes? I presume that if similar conditions happened today SPC would have MDT and HIGH risk flags flying well ahead of time, openly mentioning the possibility of violent or long tracked tornadoes, and every storm chaser, and Facebook or Twitter user would be screaming "There's a huge tornado outbreak coming!!" days in advance.
My question is: was the low-key wording in "vintage" TOR forecasts/outlooks due to the forecasters not wanting to freak out the public, or was it more because they really didn't have the tools available yet to forecast just how severe a tornado outbreak was going to be? Or was it less difficult to capture the public's attention back in the days before 24-hour saturation news/weather coverage and social media? It's a topic I find intriguing.