State of the Chase Season 2024

[Dan Robinson]

GEFS ensemble members are starting to cluster on WSW flow between May 20-24 with signals for precip in the Plains (breakable cap). The operational GFS concurs. There is still considerable spread thereafter. Euro is moving a shortwave in a little to far south for my liking, but there is moisture, CAPE and lightning density activity showing up from the Plains through the Midwest during that time.

 

[Jason N]

I'll decide next Monday if I am heading out or postponing until mid-June, (my next available Window from work). I saw kind of the same thing as you Dan, and it looks like if that holds the 5 wave and 85 moisture may be in a bad phase for the 24 to 1 June timeframe I am looking at.

 

[John Homenuk]

I am a bit flummoxed as to the overall sentiment regarding the season so far both here and on social media. The 16-day stretch we just saw in late April and early May was one of the most active such periods on record and included several photogenic tornadoes in multiple states from multiple storm systems. There were opportunities for everyone who was willing or able to get out there. In fact, I can't remember such a favorable period during the start of peak season in the Plains or Midwest since 2019 - and before that you're probably going back much further to find a comparison. The dilution of such an impressive stretch across the storm chasing community is confusing to me and makes me wonder if folks are simply just judging the season based on their own ability (or inability) to chase these events. Anyway...

The hemispheric pattern coming up in late May is quite favorable once again and has been strongly signaled by subseasonal forecasts since February. Analog data and long-range guidance has done a great job this year as we proceed through a Terminating El Niño regime. Historical data strongly points to the heightened potential for tornado outbreaks during this regimes particularly when La Niña conditions have not yet developed in ENSO 3.4 by June 1 (this year). We're also getting additional help from periodic MJO propagations. This upcoming stretch in late May will be no different. A prolonged -AAM regime has also helped to contribute to a favorably oriented Pacific Jet and oscillating N Pacific ridging.



It's still TBD how this will play out in terms of details or specifics (mesoscale forecasting be damned at this range), but the global ensemble solutions depicting several days of southwest or westerly flow juxtaposed with ample instability and moisture are not a coincidence. This period should offer the opportunity for a favorable synoptic weather pattern across the Plains in late May for the first time in several years. Thereafter, the pattern tends to begin to look less favorable to me by mid-June with a more standing-wave look and lots of subsidence being signaled from the Indian Ocean towards the dateline and convection over the Americas. My opinion is to get out there starting 5/20 and chase what ensues.

Enjoy the chasing and the upcoming peak season, y'all.

Hope to see you out there.

J

 

[John Farley]

Regarding the season thus far, I would have to agree with Brett more than John in the posts above. Yes, it definitely has been above average in terms of numbers of tornadoes and numbers of promising setups. But aside from April 26th, and a few back-to-back days in central TX that I get the sense not a lot of chasers went after (though some smart ones did), most of the tornadoes were after dark, hard to see due to low clouds and rain, and/or in poor terrain. So despite the large number of tornadoes, I think it has been somewhat disappointing in terms of chasing, except probably for people who chased the aforementioned events. But like Brett said, there were many promising-looking setups in prime chase territory that just did not work out.

All that said, we are just now getting into peak chase season, there are signs of the current pattern changing, and there will be lots of opportunities, including a lot of time in late May and June that is still now beyond the reach of reliable forecasting. So no reason to lose hope at this point, unless you are tied into one particular period that does not work out.

 

[Jason N]

yeah, I think the "numbers" have been great this year, hard to argue that up to this point. That aside, it might be the "quality/location/timing" of chases that have occurred, i.e. More nocturnal, or heavily wrapped HP's Vs. say something more classic, Vs. a locally moistening LP with no hoard (you hit the motherload).. that might have some folks less enthusiastic, but the nocturnal stuff that John mentioned above, maybe with the exception of that 4-day short run we had in more traditional areas of chaseable territory at more traditional times of day could be where some of the "sighs" are coming from.

in terms of geography, since we have had a spread of Tornado days recently across the MS river into the TN Valley.... well, for me, I personally think chasing East of I35 and south of I-66/70 West of Columbus Ohio, becomes too much of a terrain/forested environment. Honestly, I have always preferred to stay west of Omaha/KC because of the additional elements of less towns and people in general.

 

[John Homenuk]

Regarding the season thus far, I would have to agree with Brett more than John in the posts above. Yes, it definitely has been above average in terms of numbers of tornadoes and numbers of promising setups. But aside from April 26th, and a few back-to-back days in central TX that I get the sense not a lot of chasers went after (though some smart ones did), most of the tornadoes were after dark, hard to see due to low clouds and rain, and/or in poor terrain. So despite the large number of tornadoes, I think it has been somewhat disappointing in terms of chasing, except probably for people who chased the aforementioned events. But like Brett said, there were many promising-looking setups in prime chase territory that just did not work out.

All that said, we are just now getting into peak chase season, there are signs of the current pattern changing, and there will be lots of opportunities, including a lot of time in late May and June that is still now beyond the reach of reliable forecasting. So no reason to lose hope at this point, unless you are tied into one particular period that does not work out.

First, I totally respect your opinion so I don't want this to come across as argumentative or brash. But isn't this highlighted part kind of the point? To have an outbreak of photogenic tornadoes in late April followed by three straight days of visible/photogenic tornadoes in Texas all before May 5th is a bit of a feat in itself when it comes to any storm chasing season. How can we actually sit here and call that disappointing if it's not just a personal bias at play? You specifically said it has been disappointing "except for people who chased the aforementioned events". Which reads to me as - it hasn't been disappointing from a chasing perspective, I just wasn't there to see it.

Just my opinion, and at the end of the day we each rank our chasing seasons differently. Here's hoping we all have nothing to disagree about in about 3 weeks time after this stretch is over

 

[Brett Roberts]

I am a bit flummoxed as to the overall sentiment regarding the season so far both here and on social media. The 16-day stretch we just saw in late April and early May was one of the most active such periods on record and included several photogenic tornadoes in multiple states from multiple storm systems. There were opportunities for everyone who was willing or able to get out there. In fact, I can't remember such a favorable period during the start of peak season in the Plains or Midwest since 2019 - and before that you're probably going back much further to find a comparison. The dilution of such an impressive stretch across the storm chasing community is confusing to me and makes me wonder if folks are simply just judging the season based on their own ability (or inability) to chase these events. Anyway...

IMO it partly depends on whether you're measuring on an absolute or relative scale. The early season was fairly impressive for the early season by any reasonable metric, no doubt. There are plenty of years where virtually nothing memorable happens before mid-May, and this year wasn't like that at all. Still, the early season is the less desirable and less prolific part of chase season for various reasons, so it's not like even an 80th percentile March-April period is sufficient to make the entire season amazing. I think we should appreciate what we got, but hypothetically if the rest of the season turned out to be a dud (and there's always that fear when the early season pattern is so consistently active, plus there's almost unanimous agreement already that June is all but cancelled), I don't think 2024 would stack up as a banner year in the final analysis.

Then there's the other factor I mentioned already: wasted potential. I will admit this has a strong component of geographic bias. The southern Plains were teased relentlessly the past six weeks with a parade of negative-tilt troughs we could only dream of most recent years. Every well-advertised event in this region crumbled before our eyes from a chasing perspective, and there were probably 4-5 of those, more than any other early season I can remember. Anyone in this region trying to be selective and shake off other commitments to chase only on higher-confidence days probably got burned badly, as frankly has been the case for many consecutive years now.

To reiterate, none of this changes the fact that April 26 was an historic, top-end chase day. Outside that, we had several good overperformer setups that were not obvious even the morning of, a.k.a. the lifeblood of the modern chasing era. Also to clarify, I was able to see tornadoes on April 26 and May 2, so I'm not even complaining from the perspective of my own season. The gap in fortunes between hardcore chasers vs. casual or constrained folks trying to cobble together 3-5 days a year when they can escape commitments only continues widening ad infinitum since the early 2010s.

How can we actually sit here and call that disappointing if it's not just a personal bias at play? You specifically said it has been disappointing "except for people who chased the aforementioned events". Which reads to me as - it hasn't been disappointing from a chasing perspective, I just wasn't there to see it.

In the same spirit of trying to walk the line of being overly argumentative: this reads to me as "I'm from Minneapolis, and most of the setups that looked good within 400 miles of here have performed as well or better than advertised." I don't mean this negatively at all; I think it's just hard to appreciate how brutally the OK/N TX contingent has been whiplashed through through a series of 10% hatched or better outlook days that ended in zero visible daytime tornadoes or even structure, but sometimes destructive nighttime tornadoes (in other words, the worst of all worlds).

 

[Kem Poyner]

I am not being disrespectful, but for several years contributors seem to only view the season through when they will be out there. This thread should discuss the entire season as a whole and not just when you will be on your chase vacation. I have heard several posts that actually say " I won't be out there then so I don't care".

 

[James Wilson]

I see both views here.

I saw the tornadoes on 4/26 in NE/IA and had a few others like Stillwater and Stinnett in that time frame BUT I also was out on the high risk day in OK that was after dark. The Stillwater tornado was the only real tornado during light on that day as well. Timing has been off on some days and other days were just too late to see much. That all started for me on the Alta Vista day were we saw the tornado RIGHT at dark. I think most views will be impacted on if you have seen much or missed 4/26. For me this has already been a great year as I was on those days in NE/IN/OK/TX but also a pain to be out on badly timed days. It looks like the season will ramp up again for the end of May and I expect to make the most of it by being out regardless.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

Boiling it down to its most simplest form, when the thread is the "State of the Chase Season", it should probably be viewed through the most current lens. Right now, the state is not great because it's pretty quiet at the heart of the season (although SPC has a couple of slights in the coming days). A few weeks back, it was tremendous. Who knows what the next 30 days brings.

I think seasons need to be evaluated through several different lenses, starting broadly and honing in from there. How much opportunity did we have? This year so far, the atmosphere has offered ample opportunities, which hasn't been the case for many years, especially on the southern plains. Have those opportunities yielded tornadoes? Maybe not as many as expected on a regular basis, but definitely has delivered on multiple days. Were those tornadoes/storms quality? Many were, but just as many weren't. Was I there to catch them? Some of them, but not all.

Personally, I've seen more tornadoes at this point in the season than any other time in my career. Will it continue? Who knows. I can only catch what's served up and hopefully the atmosphere will give us a few more opportunities so the ball can be in my court to make the season what it is.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Season quality’s always been relative and depends on each individual’s schedule constraints and whether you picked the right targets on the days you were out. This year so far is like 2012. If you made it out for April 14 that year, you had a great season because of that one day. If you were like most that has to schedule a fixed trip in advance for late May, 2012 wasn’t that great (unless you got the Rago day). 2003 was a legendary spring, but a bad one for me as I busted on every big day.

I’d consider this to be a good year for those with the ability to chase when the atmosphere says it’s time to go. That’s because like 2012, the best synoptically-evident day made itself known in advance enough to make arrangements to be there. You can’t ask the Plains for much more than that most years.

The ones who can chase everything always have better perceptions of a season than most. They get the northern Plains and Colorado gems on the one out of 20 2-percent days that goes crazy. For them, that makes a year stellar when for the rest of us it was “meh”.

In my attempt to rank season/event quality objectively a few years ago, I gave points for late May events that had easy forecasts, as those were factors that maximized the number of chasers who would be there to witness it. Dodge City is the gold standard not just for its innate quality, but that it happened in a way and time for most of us to be there to see it.

 

[Jeff House]

Let's get this derailed thread back on track.

Next week looks significantly better than it did just 36 hours ago. Operational models have followed the AI versions into southwest flow aloft. Of course, it's too early to nail down days or even regions; so, don't expect 15% outlooks just yet. Maybe Thursday or Friday 4-8 Day for next week?

For example the Euro Op favors Tuesday over Monday; but, that could change, because everything else is still on Monday. Then the rest of the week will depend on that wave, boundaries, and all kinds of other variables. Another wave or two is likely. It's a get out there and ask questions later type of forecast. That's not a gamble in late May.

I expect 3-4 chase days next week, but the exact days cannot be placed attm. If there is a down day, we don't know that either. Then there is always a possible bonus day early or late that we can't see now. Mesoscale accident.

This does not mean we are going out there. I try to forecast each sequence for whoever may be going or is out there. Maybe we'll end up joining; maybe not. I believe posts should include a forecast. I don't care isn't a valid post.

Hopefully tomorrow I see most of the trash on page 8 is removed by Mods. This isn't Target Area, but we can do better.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Once we get through this week I’m more optimistic than a was a couple of days ago. Three of my chase partners have to fly in when there’s going to be at least a few days with a “chance” of producing. It looks like that will be happening starting next week. A quick looks shows there will be plenty of moisture and shear to make things interesting. The details are far from being worked out. My biggest oh-oh coming up is my worry that the better moisture seems like it might struggle to get far enough West to get in a better chase area. Beggars can’t be choosers and everything is far enough out where it’ll change five times. It looks promising though.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Sure, the "wasted" potential of some of the recent setups was disappointing from a chaser standpoint, especially as has been pointed out, patterns like that don't come around in late April-early May every year (or even every several years, lately). The time to fret about details for individual days will come, but the SCP maps are lighting up like a Christmas tree for the foreseeable future starting next Monday, which sure beats the alternative.

 

[Matt Hunt]

I feel like every year this thread is full of doom & gloom! From my perspective, as someone who has yet to chase this season, I feel it's been a more active season than usual. It seems most years we're worried nothing is going to kick off, and once we get to May that concern grows even stronger. But this period of downtime hasn't been that long, and it looks like next week should be very active. Lucky for me, my chasecation covers all of next week. It actually starts Thursday, but Monday (mayyyybe Sunday) will likely be my first day chasing. I'm too far away to get to Texas on Thursday, and I have no desire to chase in Dixie Alley.

GFS has been very consistent with SW flow over the plains next week, over the last several model runs. CFS and GEFS are in general agreement. No guarantees that any of these days will be a slam dunk from a chasing standpoint, but there should at least be storms each day.