STORM TRACK: March 31, 1984 (Volume 7 Issue 3)

Once again, the cycle turns -- returns. Old winter settles down into cracks, and ancient mold sends up new grass ... untried against a fitful southern wind ... as fleecy cirrus banners bring challenges to northern caves -- foretell the ancient enmity of fire and ice ... when thunder strides the plains and Vortex reigns supreme!

That time is upon us - Chase 1984. Already, ST's correspondents have reported early severe activity. (Item)... "heavy thunderstorms, some with golfball sized hail, drenched eastern Oklahoma ... A tornado watch ... for 40 counties in central and eastern Oklahoma.' -on February ll! - from Byron Long. (Item) Storm chasers are already on the road, according to Tim Marshall's February 11 report ("earliest chase ever") of a dryline that developed a "beautiful Cb" with back-sheared anvil over Fort Worth ("Spring is here and I can stop counting the days."). Spring comes earlier, of course, to "Big D" (Dallas), but Tim is ready. Although recently moved from Lubbock with his wife Kay, the chaser's homing instincts have quickly adapted to the new apartment in Carrollton, "... two miles east of I-35E, exactly 3 hours, 15 minutes from my door to NSSL, 2 hours to Wichita Falls and 3 hours, 15 minutes to Seymour" (Storm buffs will recognise, respectively, Mecca, "totally awesome," and "awesome"). (Item) March 15 "... a tornado, Thursday, tore the roof from a church in Tahlequah, Oklahoma, and large hail ... up to softball-size broke car windshields in Choteau." Other tornadoes were reported near Afton and Stilwell as well as killer twisters in Arkansas (Fisher, etc.) -- from Randy Zipser

A small straw poll of local meteorologists in Texas and Oklahoma on the tornado outlook this spring ranges from a mild spring, to cautious/hopeful, to excited/enthusiastic, The Editor believes it will be a much more active spring than last year, based on the general jet stream pattern since October. Kansas could be getting most of the activity by the last half of May. Randy Zipser generally agrees and notes that "winter came early, as well as spring." He believes April will be very active through the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, with a late May thermal ridge possible. My guess is that the normal late May annual peak of activity may come a little early this year. Anyway, since the "experts" were more wrong than right last spring, it's time for an amateur to step forward ... so there it is!

The Editor expects to join the rest of you on the range for this year's round-up on May 7th, for two or three weeks. Good hunting to you and a safe journey.

P.S. To an earlier newsletter note: An article on storm chasing and about the Editor' may appear in the May issue of Science Digest and could include complimentary references about his system of forecasting tornadoes. It should be noted, however, that any comments made by the writer about this technique are based on just a one week chase with the editor and on general comparisons he has made with the forecast record of the National Weather Service (NSSFC). It does not reflect a rigorous analysis nor does it allow for variables unique to the National Severe Storm's Forecast, Center, such as (1) the public responsibility to foreeeast for all possible affected areas and (2) the natural tendency toward later, verifiable watches based on radar and satellite confirmation, versus earlier higher-risk forecasts based solely on atmospheric dynamics (temperature, dew point, pressure, etc.). It is in the latter range in which the Editor operates.