STORM TRACK: March 31, 1985 (Volume 8 Issue 3)
On November 9, 1984, Al and I were flying back from the Philippines, after chasing Typhoon Agnes (Undang). The stewardess began handing out newspapers from Manila and Guam. I was pleasantly surprised to see a satellite picture of the West Pacific area for a change (Usually, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC, only provides U.S. mainland photos to the media). It seemed too good to be true, when I saw there was another tropical storm east of Guam. The thought of a third chase in three weeks was fantastic.
After arriving back on Guam and unpacking from the last chase, I rushed over to the Naval Air Station weather service office to see what was going on. I thought I was in heaven, when I found Guam to be under storm warnings for the third time in three weeks! Tropical Storm Bill had formed November 8, approximately 600 miles ENE of Guam. On November 11, 00Z, it was upgraded to typhoon status with sustained winds of 70 knots. The advisory was moving the typhoon west at 5 knots, while the satellite picture showed Bill to be expanding in size with very concentrated convection. The radius of 50 knot winds were 80 miles to the north of the center, but only 35 miles to the south.
With the typhoon being positioned ENE of Guam and a straight westward movement forecast, Rota Island was the closest point of approach (CPA). With Rota only 40 miles north of Guam and Saipan 120 miles NNE of Guam, I had to decide which location would receive the most impact from the storm. At the same time, the JTWC was forecasting Bill to pass just north of Rota, with a straight westward movement through the Mariana Islands. Bill could just as easily veer slightly south of due west and pass over the northern tip of Guam. The most likely possibility seemed to be a drift to the north of west, with Bill passing between Rota and Saipan. Tropical cyclones are notorious for fighting to turn northward. But a high pressure ridge to the north of the storm was strengthening rapidly, and Bill was forecast to increase its forward speed to 16 knots -- while passing through the islands. I had to make the crucial decision on whether to go to Saipan, Rota or remain on Guam. One rule of typhoon chasing is 'never position yourself on the south side. That is the weakest, with the radius of typhoon/gale force winds usually only 1/2 to 1/3 that on the north side; also, Guam has only been approached once since 1948 by a storm from north of due east.
There were three flights a day from Guam to Saipan and only one flight to Rota. Continental Air Micronesia flew to and from Saipan three times daily, but only twice weekly to Rota. If I had flown to Rota, I would have been stranded for three days. The schedule to and from Saipan was tolerable. I knew if I delayed much longer, I'd be pushing for gales. The radius of gale force winds was expanding as Bill intensified. On November 12, I bypassed the 6:30 AM flight to Rota and decided to take the 7:00 AM flight to Saipan. If I'd waited until the 2:30 PM flight, I'd be asking cancellation due to gale force winds. We arrived on Saipan at 7:25 AM and set up at the Surf Hotel (all of the hotels were located on the leeward side of Saipan, so there was no threat from storm surge. At 8:00 AM, the storm advisory placed Bill 300 miles ESE of Saipan, moving west at 8 knots, and forecast to pass 65 miles north of Guam by 6:00 AM, Tuesday, November l3. -- - Having slept only two hours the previous night, we decided to get a couple hours sleep before the gales arrived. Awakening at 1:00 PM, I became very concerned when I found the need to put on my sunglasses! The 9:00 AM advisory indicated 'An Eyewall Relocation!!!' For some reason, eye relocations always seem to be for the worse instead of for the better. Bill was relocated about 25 miles south of the last position, but no change was shown in longitude or forward movement.
At 2:00 PM, the new advisory was issued. I almost fell on the floor when I heard that Bill had changed course and was heading west southwest at 10 knots! Although the advisory said the typhoon could change course again, by then I knew it wouldn't. We threw everything to- gether and rushed to the airport, missing the last flight out by 10 minutes! All other flights leaving Saipan for Guam were cancelled due to the issuance of 'Condition One' on Guam. We tried every avenue to get a flight of some type to Guam but to no avail.
It was obvious we were stranded on Saipan, while Bill was bearing down on Guam. It continued moving WSW, passing 12 miles south of Guam (!) at its CPA, with sustained winds of 75 knots, gusting to 95. Winds at the Naval Air Station were recorded gusting to 61 knots, or just under typhoon force. Cocos Island and southern Guam were in the eye wall, and winds were estimated to have been sustained at 70 knots. -- - We arrived back on Guam at 4:00 PM, November 13 and did a thorough damage survey. The southern end of Guam received the most damage, with the banana crops totally flattened. Several of the poorly constructed houses (wood with corrugated tin roofs) were destroyed. There was flooding from mountain runoff but very little flooding visible from storm tides. Damage was very minimal.
Barbara ended her cover letter to me with a little homespun philosophy that every chaser will appreciate. Although that letter was regrettably mislaid, I recall the substance as follows: - -- While this chase was frustrating, chasers should understand that they can't always, or even often, be successful. This is also part of storm chasing and must be understood, so when success comes it is all the more appreciated. (Thanks Barbara!)
