Where will the first EF-5 occur?

[Marc Austin]

Now that the new EF scale has been implemented, and everyone is in anticipation of tornado season 2007, I thought it would be interesting to see where everyone thought the first official EF-5 would strike, not that there's any real merrit to anyone's answer, but I thought it might be another nonsense thread to pass the time until we'll be gearing up and hitting the road.

So... here are my predictions... I couldn't pinpoint an exact location so I've decided on a few hot spots:

Moore, Oklahoma (I know... the most predictable)
Norton, KS (Not so predictable)
Lela/Shamrock/Wheeler TX area (more general)

So... what do you think?

Mods, if there is already a post on this topic, go ahead and delete this, but I was pretty sure I didn't see one.

[Bart_Comstock]

Bixby, Oklahoma. Call it a gut feeling, but for some odd reason something is telling me that Bixby will get it.

[Danny Neal]

Branson, MO
El Paso, IL
Moore, OK
or
Covington, KY

I have no idea why I pick these places, but I do, I am fairly confident 2 or 3 of these places will get hit by a tornado in 07 with the EF-5 being in MO.

[Marko Korosec]

A bit SW of Altus in Jackson county, OK on the May 14th, late afternoon. We will have a good chase day in TX Panhandle a day before and will have a sleep in a motel in Childress, TX. This will be an excelent day with not many miles driven to see a first official EF-5.

Pics will be added later.

[Paul Austin]

Madison, SD...in 2009.....?

[mrobinett]

A bit SW of Altus in Jackson county, OK on the May 14th, late afternoon. We will have a good chase day in TX Panhandle a day before and will have a sleep in a motel in Childress, TX. This will be an excelent day with not many miles driven to see a first official EF-5.

Pics will be added later.

Wow, Marko, you really have that scenario worked out.

BTW its only spelled Amerika in a bad made-for-TV movie back in the 80s!:D

[Andrea Griffa]

A bit SW of Altus in Jackson county, OK on the May 14th, late afternoon. We will have a good chase day in TX Panhandle a day before and will have a sleep in a motel in Childress, TX. This will be an excelent day with not many miles driven to see a first official EF-5.

Pics will be added later.


I like your target man, but I like more Isabel,Swest of Wichita;)I've got a crazy memory of that place.

[scott r currens]

Dallas, TX, Ardmore, OK, and Waco, TX on May 1, 2008.

[Jason Boggs]

Eastern Arkansas near Pine Bluff on March 11, 2007

[afischer]

McPherson, KS... March 26, 2008.

Sylvia Browne told me so.

[Brian Stertz]

I am going to pick the Huntsville-Birmingham AL area April 5th 2007.

[Robert Dewey]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we won't see an EF5 for at least a few more years as people try to adjust to the new scale.

[Mike Smith]

Agree with Mr. Dewey.

[Angie Norris]

Moore, OK on 5-9-07 at 5:30pm (Physics 2 final starts at 4:30)

[Marko Korosec]

BTW its only spelled Amerika in a bad made-for-TV movie back in the 80s!
Hehe I know, but it sounds so funny!:D And in my language we write America with "k" as well.

Rdewey has a good point there even I don't like it much. I would really like to see such EF-5 monster, hopefully without any deaths of course.

[samuel stone]

Long Tracker from Woodward, OK - Medicine Lodge, KS. In 2008

[Jeff Miller]

La Salle, IL, June 7, 2008
35 mile track
Motion: ESE 35 MPH
Storm Mode: HP
Dazed Cows: 6
Defeathered Chickens: 34
Chances of this actually occuring: 0.00004%

[Alex Lamers]

Interesting question. We've been in quite an F5 drought, surprisingly the last one was that devastating Moore, OK tornado of May 3rd 1999. So one would think that with the law of averages we'd see one soon.

I'm not so sure. It seems like under the new system unless we see definitive proof of >200 mph type damage, we cannot rate it an F5, which makes more sense to me now than it did a year ago. And there doesn't appear to be many damage indicators that would be able to be rated as F5 damage. Many of these are also large, tall and very sturdy buildings that don't crop up all over the country, much less the Plains states. I am pleased that the EF-scale team decided to allow the complete destruction of a well-built house with debris swept clean to be rated an F5. That was something that I had hoped they would do, it keeps the new system jiving more with the traditional Fujita Scale. I think we'll keep fine tuning a few more details but I am liking the way this new scale is shaping up.

The problem, at least in achieving an F5 rating, is that the strong tornadoes never seem to hit houses that are "well constructed". There always seems to be some flaw in the design that would allow for weaker wind speeds than expected to cause similar damage. I'm not knocking the surveys, as it seems the construction of buildings is being more meticulously examined nowadays, so they are probably more accurate, but rather saying that karma seems to be playing a role in keeping us in the F5 drought.

So long story short, I think it will be later rather than sooner that we see an F5 rating. However, if my gut turns out to be right about this tornado season (I think it will be an active one), this might be the year. Not that it would be a bad thing to stay in an F5-drought...seeing very sturdy structures completely obliterated is impressive but heart-wrenching in many cases, so I can't say I'm hoping for an F5! :cool:

As for where...Oklahoma, where else? :-p

AJL

[Danny Neal]

La Salle, IL, June 7, 2008
35 mile track
Motion: ESE 35 MPH
Storm Mode: HP
Dazed Cows: 6
Defeathered Chickens: 34
Chances of this actually occuring: 0.00004%

I like your thinking! Except for the HP part haha no good. Kind of reminds me of July 13, 2004. Except for the tornado part....that was a little further south, and still leaves a bad taste in my mouth!

[mike scantlin]

Bixby, Oklahoma. Call it a gut feeling, but for some odd reason something is telling me that Bixby will get it.


lol. half my friends live in bixby.




im gonna say north central oklahoma.

[Brett Adair]

I am going to pick the Huntsville-Birmingham AL area April 5th 2007.

I agree with that...