2/2/07 DISC: FL

[Alexandre Aguiar]

Fox News is reporting now that severe storms caused an unknown number of fatalities in Central Florida. AP just reported the same:

An unknown number of people were killed early Friday as severe thunderstorms struck central Florida, damaging homes and causing power outages, officials said. A dispatcher at the Lake County Sheriff's Office confirmed that there had been fatalities. The woman, who would not give her name, said that damage had included "every kind of damage you can think of."

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/16606634.htm

From the Orlando Sentinel:

A severe line of thunderstorms and tornados overnight across Volusia and Lake counties has shut down I-4 in both directions, caused severe accidents and shut down power to thousands of Central Florida residents.

Florida Highway Patrol spokeswoman Kim Miller said tornadoes and severe weather caused wrecks on Interstate 4 near State Road 44 in DeLand involving five tractor trailers and two vehicles. Three people were taken to the hospital , but none of their injuries are believed to be life-threatening.

EVAC Ambulance spokesman Mark O'Keefe said paramedics currently are working 50 trauma, medical and injury calls in that area.

All westbound lanes of I-4 remain closed, but one lane of eastbound has reopened. Miller said trees have snapped and fallen on the roadway and some of the semis are overturned on the highway.

"We want to get these trucks off the road as soon as possible," she said. FHP crews hope to have the roadway open by 7 a.m. Debris on State Road 44 near the interstate also caused another semi-truck to wreck, Volusia County Sheriff's spokesman Brandon Haught said. FHP also reports there is debris in the roadway on U.S. Highway 17-92 near Spring Garden Avenue and that a tree has fallen onto Interstate 95 in the southbound lanes near mile marker 251 in New Smyrna Beach.

Three Seminole County Fire/Rescue transport-capable rescue units were dispatched to Lake County at 4:45 a.m. for a "mass casualty incident," according to officials.

Deputies from the Lake County Sheriff's Office had set up a command post at the Villages, the massive retirement community that encompasses parts of Lake, Marion and Sumter counties, where a tornado hit earlier this morning, said department spokeswoman Christie Mysinger.

"We have several unconfirmed fatalities and many injuries, structural damage to homes, trees and power lines down in roads," Mysinger said. "We are asking residents to stay in their homes if they don?t have to be on the roads. If they must be on the roads, please use main roads and not back roads due to the debris."

Mysinger added that deputies were also checking reports of a possible tornado in the eastern corner of Lake, where it meets with Volusia and Seminole counties. That east Eustis-Deland area hadn't been inspected yet.

More than 20,000 customers were without power in the swath between Marion and Volusia counties, including the cities of Leesburg and DeLand, said Progress Energy spokesperson Cherie Jacobs.

Crews were on scene overnight trying to restore electricity but could not work in the high winds. No timetable was set for when power could be back on. Volusia 911 dispatchers have received several calls reporting multiple tornadoes in the DeLand area with serious debris and many power outages, officials said. There is also a report of damage in Lady Lake. The National Weather Service earlier reported that a tornado touched down at Lake Ashby.

Schools in Volusia County will remain open, officials said.

"There may be some delays with buses," spokeswoman Nancy Wait said. "We just ask that parents use their judgment as far as safety in the area."

Reports of serious wind damage in Orange City. Power lines are snapped over the highway at 17-92, billboards have been knocked down and vehicles have been damaged. Officials report no storm-related calls currently in the Deltona area, but rescue workers there are assisting in the DeLand area at mobile home parks, searching for occupants and injuries. In Seminole County, authorities are checking for wind damage and trying to determine if a tornado indicated on radar touched down just before 6 a.m., north of downtown Oviedo and continuing northeast over Geneva.

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms moving east from Lake to Volusia with some brief heavy rains and gusty winds through 7 a.m. Flooding on roadways is possible.

[Alexandre Aguiar]

From WESH-TV:

WATCH IT LIVE: Officials Report Mass Casualties In Lake Co. (http://www.wesh.com/video/9329788/index.html)

[B Ozanne]

When did these storms strike? Was it just after midnight or was it closer to sunrise this morning?

[Francesco]

They saying in the middle of the night on CNN

[B Ozanne]

They saying in the middle of the night on CNN

Typical. At this time of year the middle of the night is midnight to me. For the average person its 15 minutes after sunset to 15 minutes before sunrise. So that doesn't really help.

[Francesco]

exactly :P

[Andrea Griffa]

Tornadic damage at 99.9%

http://www.tbo.com/video/xml/MGBDNZCNOXE.html

[Danny Neal]

345-400 AM is when the warnings went out, I woke up and checked my weather and noticed a tornado watch for Florida and i clicked and saw warnings go out. First warning for Lake County was about 330 AM EST. And more to follow. CNN, FOX NEWS, and others are following it along with the link posted above

[Chris Hayes]

Preliminary report of 7 fatalities.

[Paul Austin]

One persistent cell ahead of the line had warnings from about 3:30 am EST until it left the east coast around 4:45 am. The remaining line included embedded cell that continued to receive warnings through at least 5:00am. I was surprised to see a local broadcast met for Fox 35 display SRM radial velocity radar scans on air. This is a rarity for Florida mets in my experience. As it turns out, he was from the OK/TX area. The couplets were impressive for Florida...in January. I'll try to post a captured gif or two when I can get to it. Not to complain, but doesn't this post belong as a DISC thread in Reports as a recent event?

[Chris Hayes]

Now reports are coming in that as many as 14 people have been killed.

[Kevin Bowman]

i think states should make it law to have NOAA weather radios in each and every house/school (probably already there anyways) ect.

Sirens arent meant to warn people already in their houses. someone should tell the news channels that

[B Ozanne]

i think states should make it law to have NOAA weather radios in each and every house/school (probably already there anyways) ect.

Sirens arent meant to warn people already in their houses. someone should tell the news channels that

I'm not really sure how this fits into the current breaking news story, but its a typical knee jerk reaction. Your comments just resonate everything that is wrong with the media. Heart disease kills almost 1 million Americans a year, and the key to our safety is weather radios? Because 14 people died.

[Scott Olson]

Thread moved from W&C since 48 hrs has not yet elapsed.

[Danny Neal]

Engineers on CNN say that that church I think Our Lady of God Church(guessing) in Lady Lake could have with stood up to 150 mph winds and it is completely flattened and destroyed.....powerful.

[Terry L. Schenk]

I was up monitoring radar this morning as a squall line, ahead of a strong cold front, moved through Central Florida. Shear values went up dramatically and a supercell formed and moved across Sumter, Lake, and Volusia counties. I live in Seminole County but chose not to head north to intercept since, 1) most tornadoes that form in this kind of setup in Florida are rain-wrapped, 2) the cell was moving at 50-65mph, and 3) it was, of course, dark. This storm will again point out the need for folks to have a NOAA weather radio in their home as the death toll stands at 14 and will likely go higher. Shown below is a velocity shot of the cell as it moved across Interstate 4 a couple of counties north of Orlando. It is not unusal for us to have tornadic storms in Central Florida during an El Nino winter. In fact, we have had tornadoes on November 7th, November 18th, Christmas Day and now on Groundhog Day! All of that and we have not even reached the climatological peak for severe weather which occurs in the last two weeks of February/first two weeks of March. I am headed to the National Chasers Convention in Denver in a couple of weeks and plan to chase in the Plains several times this Spring. For now, however, the action is right here close to home!

Terry
www.SignificantEvent.com (http://www.SignificantEvent.com)

113

[B Ozanne]

Is anybody more familiar with how widespread the damage is? How many different towns?

It looks very widespread on tv, but you never know. They could be showing the same neighborhood.

[Jordan Hartley]

at least 14 dead here is an article on the storms out of S Florida,

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/orl-bk-weather02022007,0,1862774.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

7 reports of tornadoes, Florida decares state of emergencey.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070202/D8N1MRAO0.html

Deaf women heard tornado before home destroyed

http://www.local6.com/news/10912481/detail.html

Video of tornado damage and interviews with survivors,

http://player.clipsyndicate.com/player/play_clip/77997?cpt=8

[Danny Neal]

Is anybody more familiar with how widespread the damage is? How many different towns?

It looks very widespread on tv, but you never know. They could be showing the same neighborhood.

I have been hearing from Northern Sumter County from just west of The Villages through Lady Lake(3 dead) to Paisley(11 dead) through Deland and into New Smyrna Beach. SO a little around 50 miles of damage. I don't think this was ALL one tornado but it looks incredible.

[Marc Austin]

I, like many of you, was monitoring the situation late last night. I couldn't believe the strength and appearance of this monster supercell as it moved across central Florida. I even noticed on the radial velocity how one couplet weakened as another strengthened south and west of the original. I guess I would venture to say it looked like a cyclic supercell, which is very uncommon in FL, but it's interesting because I recall during 1998 we had a similar tornadic even in the Kissimee area. That was also an El-Nino year, so we are feeling the effects of the El-Nino, even if it isn't the strongest. Well anyway, here are some of the animtated radial and base scans:

http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s307/mda02/Feb12007baseanimationregional.gif?t=1170436606[/URL]

This is the regional radar from just before the storm hit Umatilla, FL.

http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s307/mda02/Feb12007radvelregional.gif?t=1170436569 (http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s307/mda02/Feb12007baseanimationregional.gif?t=1170436606)

This is the regional SRM from the same time. The storm was just NW of Eustis at this time.

[URL]http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s307/mda02/Feb12007baseanimation-1.gif?t=1170436490

Here is a closer look at the storm that caused all the devistation. This is from around the same time as above. Notice the apparent hook echo NW of Eustis, FL.

http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s307/mda02/Feb12007animation.gif?t=1170436530

Here's a closer look at the very noteable couplet as the storm was just about to strike Umatilla, FL.

[Danny Neal]

I have heard one mention of NOAA weather radio on CNN by Chad Meyer. He basically described it as a "box that you plug into the wall, and for maybe 10 years it will collect dust but, when a tornado emergency hits it will yell out tones from the national weather service." Hmm that explanation right there makes me want to jump out of bed and buy 10! None of these communities had tornado sirens. Shocking.

[B Ozanne]

I just thought it was a particularly bold statement to say that we need a nationwide law to make weather radios mandatory. Smoke detectors aren't even mandatory. Sure, they may be required in new construction or rentals, but nothing says you can't take the batteries out.

I'd say that Chad Meyers on CNN is doing a particularly good job. He has mentioned weather radios a few times.

[Danny Neal]

I just thought it was a particularly bold statement to say that we need a nationwide law to make weather radios mandatory. Smoke detectors aren't even mandatory. Sure, they may be required in new construction or rentals, but nothing says you can't take the batteries out.

I'd say that Chad Meyers on CNN is doing a particularly good job. He has mentioned weather radios a few times.

And to add onto that he is probably still a little shaken about the fact that his mom and dad live 3 miles north of the damage path. I thought it was an odd description of the NWR, but he is by far and away blowing away other coverage from the meteorological side of this story.

[richhorodner]

I spoke with a truck driving friend in New Smyrna Beach, Florida. His adult daughter, by mistake, set her morrning alarm clock 3 hours early. One minute after it woke her up, the house began to shake. She grabbed her baby out of the crib and ran to the interior closet. The roof blew off first; then a tree crashed into the bedroom and crushed the empty crib. The rest of the house came apart within a few seconds; but no-one got injured.

My friend had an early tractor-trailer run and ran into the super-cell on I-4. He said the traffic marker barrels were flying through the air like ping-pong balls, and then the tractor-trailer in front of him got flipped over by the wind. He pulled the driver up, out the window and carried him a quarter mile to a flashing blue light of the Highway Patrol car who was attending another overturned vehicle.

[Chris Vagasky]

I'm watching the WESH coverage right now. This is a topic over in W&C, about the public's perspective of the (E)F-Scale. The reporter in the field mentioned that some have said the damage is about 1/4 mile wide, which "might be consistent with an (E)F-3 or maybe an (E)F-4..."

The damage looks intense from what I've seen. I know that when I went to bed last night, around 1am CT, that the storms didn't look too bad -- I was monitoring because I have a friend in Citrus County, where it looks like the first touchdown was -- soon after the storms crossed onto the peninsula, they rapidly intensified.

If I had to make a prediction based on the arial footage I saw, based on the EF-Scale, I'd say probably EF-3 or (maybe) EF-4 in some places.

Something else I've noticed is that Florida is no stranger to severe weather, but their main interaction seems to be with hurricanes. When you listen to them talking about supercells and tornadoes, they seem a little unsure of themselves.

[Dan Robinson]

What a time to implement the EF scale - the first major event for the new rating system happens less than a day after it went into effect. I will be very interested to see the new assessment and rating process in action.

[Jeff Snyder]

From what I've seen, the worst damage, not surprisingly enough, seems to be concentrated in a few trailer / mobile home parks. The destruction of the mobile home does not strike me as impressive, but I haven't watched much TV. For what it's worth, looking through the EF-scale report ( http://www.wind.ttu.edu/EFScale.pdf ), single-wide and double-wide manufactured homes are Damage Indicators 3 and 4, where the max damage is in the F2 - low F3 range depending upon adjustment to the mean from Degree of Damage 10+.

[Chris Vagasky]

Jeff, what I've seen on TV are some single family residences in Lake County. Some of those homes are DIs 6-8, which would be consistent with high F2 - F3 range. Some houses I've seen are just the concrete slab with a little bit left of their structure. Those houses may have been on the southern end of the storm, where the tornado's wind added with the forward momentum of the storm.

[MClarkson]

Because I had friends in daytona, I watched this storm as it developed a rather impressive look(especially for florida) till it moved offshore. I remember 3 exact times... I called a buddy to tell him the storm was probably going to his south by about 5 miles but it looked pretty strong... that was 4am... then the circulation passed over I4 near deland at about 410am and over I95 south of daytona at about 420am. Then I went to bed, knowing the scope of any damage wouldnt be entirely evident till sunrise. Now its apparant that that supercell was producing tornados for a good chunk of its existance, including obviously at least 1 strong one.

[beaudodson]

CNN showed a car wrapped around a tree.

[Kiel Ortega]

Several of us here at the lab have been putting together some graphics of our WDSS-II rotation tracks product. I awoke at 5AM for no reason and thought the top news story would be the Groundhog and global warming report! After we get the images sorted out and all nice, I'll post them (though some of them may end up on the national networks later). Also, I put together a track of the circulation center (eyeballed from velocity) which we're piping into Google Earth. Coolest thing with it is when the rotation would strengthen there was a right turn in the track. From what I can tell, this might be a LONG track tornado (~65-70 mi) as the velocity images never really showed any occulsion or stop/slow in the low level rotation.

Another thing is we compared the lead times of certain places (the storm was in an area where 3 CWAs border). In the areas along the Lake-Marion county line, if you were in Lake Co. you got an extra 10-12 minutes of warning.

[Bill Tabor]

I spoke with a truck driving friend in New Smyrna Beach, Florida. His adult daughter, by mistake, set her morrning alarm clock 3 hours early. One minute after it woke her up, the house began to shake. She grabbed her baby out of the crib and ran to the interior closet. The roof blew off first; then a tree crashed into the bedroom and crushed the empty crib. The rest of the house came apart within a few seconds; but no-one got injured.


That's an amazing story Richard. If true, that is SO coincidental that it seems to be beyond that, and is really some type of "intervention". Amazing! Thanks for sharing.

[Justin Turcotte]

Seems to be the hot area of the state for tornado activity during El Nino. I did a paper on the subject a fears ago at UNL. While not significant statewide with high confidence the plots certainly suggest something goes on in central FL during El Nino versus La Nina. I also attached the ENSO neutral plot which looks similar to the Nino plot but with a little less frequency in central FL and more in the Panhandle. Plots are number of F1+ tornadoes per county of occurrence.
http://www.plainschase.com/misc/FL1.gif
http://www.plainschase.com/misc/FL2.gif
http://www.plainschase.com/misc/FL3.gif

[Alexandre Aguiar]

Death toll stands now at 19.

[beaudodson]

NWS MLB Preliminary Information is on their web site now

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/surveys/020207/index.html (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/surveys/020207/index.html)

[Bill Hark]

There is a very nice thread on the Eastern USA weather forums about that tornadic event. It is 11 pages and starts with some forecasting, then discussion during and after the tornadoes. There is slightly more "noise" than Stormtrack but some of the folks posted nice high level radar captures (velocity and reflectivity) and some data. The couplet is absolutely amazing.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=123011&st=0

If the above link doesn't work, try cutting and pasting the link below.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=123011&st=0


Bill Hark

Eastern Fury: Eastern Tornadoes Compiled on a DVD for sale
http://www.harkphoto.com/EasternFury.html
.
.

[Brian Stertz]

I wonder if the steady state nature may lead this to be discovered to be the longest tracked tornado in Florida history. I'll have to check this in Tom Grazulis' book. The closest one I can recall was the 2/23/98 C.Florida killer tornado that had a 38 mile long damage path across Orange & Osceola Counties.

[Tony Lyza]

Brian, I believe the Gibsonia F4 of 4/4/66 is recorded officially as going across the entire state.

[Chris Hayes]

There were 2 tornadoes on April 4, 1966 that crossed the Florida Penninsula. One was an F4, the other was an F2. Officially there were 2 tornados that day, but I wouldnt be surprised if one, possibly both of those tracks were broken up a bit. Maybe

[Greg Stumpf]

What a time to implement the EF scale - the first major event for the new rating system happens less than a day after it went into effect. I will be very interested to see the new assessment and rating process in action.
The National QRT has been activated, and Dan McCarthy (SPC) has been sent to FL. So has Jim LaDue of the WDTB (not a QRT member....yet). Both were instrumental in the development of the EF-Scale training for the NWS, and are there to test out the new scale and the EFkit PDA software in the field. You couldn't ask for a better set of surveyers on this first "EF Event".

[Greg Stumpf]

Several of us here at the lab have been putting together some graphics of our WDSS-II rotation tracks product.
Kiel...let me trump you. ;) Here is one of the graphics that Kiel, myself, and others have put together, viewable in Google Earth.

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff_examples/20070202/RotationTracks.kml

[Jeff Snyder]

Preliminary damage assessment for Sumter county:


...TORNADO WITH 140 TO 150 MPH WINDS CONFIRMED IN NORTHEASTERN
SUMTER COUNTY...

A PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY CONDUCTED BY STAFF FROM THE NWS OFFICE IN
RUSKIN HAS DETERMINED THAT A TORNADO...CONTAINING WINDS UP TO 150
MPH...CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES FROM NEAR WILDWOOD TO
THE VILLAGES IN NORTHEAST SUMTER COUNTY. THE TRACK BEGAN IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF WILDWOOD AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 301 AND
COUNTY ROAD 462...THEN RACED NORTHEAST FOR 5 MILES BEFORE CONTINUING
INTO THE LAKE COUNTY PORTION OF THE VILLAGES...ONE AND ONE HALF
MILES SOUTH OF COUNTY ROAD 466. THOUGH THE FINAL COUNT OF DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED HOMES...AS WELL AS INSURED DAMAGE...WILL NOT BE KNOWN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THE FOLLOWING DETAILS HAVE BEEN OBTAINED FROM THE
TEAM THUS FAR:

INTENSITY...LOW END EF-3 (SCALE 139-167 MPH). TRADITIONAL F-SCALE:
STRONG F-2 (F-2 SCALE RANGES FROM 113 TO 157 MPH). ACTUAL TORNADO
WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 140-150 MPH. THIS IS ALSO

--> http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/0702022209.nous42.html

[Danny Neal]

CNN was reporting this to be the worst tornado ever to hit the state of FL at first I thought "yeah right" but after thinking about it.....hitting at 3-4 AM, no warning sirens, mostly retirement communities, high speed possibly rain wrapped, it may be true. Now I know it probably wont be the strongest tornado to hit FL, but giving the fact it might be one long tracked very deadly tornado, I can see how it would be. Any thoughts on this? I wonder where most of the deaths were concentrated. I know there were 6 in Lady Lake and 11 in Paisley. Anyone know where the other 2 were confirmed? Is Paisley mostly a retirement community? or is it a trailor park town. I know its on State road 44, on the only live shots I have seen from there, it seems like its mobile homes....

[Kevin Bowman]

I have heard one mention of NOAA weather radio on CNN by Chad Meyer. He basically described it as a "box that you plug into the wall, and for maybe 10 years it will collect dust but, when a tornado emergency hits it will yell out tones from the national weather service." Hmm that explanation right there makes me want to jump out of bed and buy 10! None of these communities had tornado sirens. Shocking.

tornado sirens wouldve done little to nothing considering the time of day. if you are sound asleep you arent going to hear it let alone over a thunderstorm.

[Danny Neal]

tornado sirens wouldve done little to nothing considering the time of day. if you are sound asleep you arent going to hear it let alone over a thunderstorm.


That is not the point I was trying to make. I understand your point but, I mean if they don't even HAVE tornado sirens whats the odds they will have a NOAA weather radio. It is a lack of preparedness. And if they are anything like my grandma, then it wouldnt matter anyway. She has one, unplugs or turns it off because she claims its not necessary. Doesn't put a battery in it because she claims she has other uses for it. It really gets me angry because i specifically bought it for her.

[beaudodson]

Glad everyone on the board is okay...

Here are some images I made from GEMPAK this evening.

Feel free to grab them and save - use as you like.


Two Loops - one long and one short

http://www.usawx.com/feb22007floridatornado.htm

[Perry Williams]

i think states should make it law to have NOAA weather radios in each and every house/school (probably already there anyways) ect.



Yes, but how can any law MAKE a homeowner (or mobile home resident) TURN on their NOAA weather radio alarm before going to bed? Theaten to arrest them afterwords if their home is destroyed and they survive??
Sadly, anyone in the path of the vicious nighttime tornado last night inside a mobile home without having their weatheralert radio on is probably no longer here to arrest. :(

That's the problem....with Nexrad, NWS can provide excellent warnings, they can give adequate lead times; we can even mandate (force) mobile home residents to buy (or be given) a new NOAA wxradio. What we cannot do is make them keep a fresh battery inside that radio....or turn it on before going to bed...

If you live in a tornado prone area inside a mobile home; especially here in the southeast where significant nighttime tornadoes aren't uncommon.....you have to take some personal responsibility to save your life and the lives of those you love. If you fail to do so....you sadly suffer the consequences of your actions. Twenty men, women, and children paid the price in central Florida (IMO 95% who perished were inside a mobile home or trying to flee a MH) last night.....just as two dozen died in SW Georgia one stormy night in February 2000....and 13 in NE Georgia on a stormy pre-dawn March morning in 1998.

My family and I survived a pre-dawn tornado in 1974 (awoken by my frantic father only 30-40 seconds before the tornado struck); we survived because a) we were inside a brick home, and b) the tornado was relatively weak (110-120 mph IMO). If it had been a strong F3 or we'd instead been inside a trailer, I probably wouldn't be here today. Let me assure you, that terrifying spring morning woke my parents up to the danger of tornadoes. Less than a week later, we owned a NOAA weather radio (Atlanta was one of the first NOAA wx radio stations on the air); I haven't went to sleep inside a home without one since....

On second thought....maybe the answer to nighttime tornadoes in the southeast is utilizing some type of E911 call back to all homes when a tornado warning is issued. Only one problem.....some home, apartment, and mobile home residents don't have a telephone (or use a cellphone as their primary phone). Also, most new phones can easily be unplugged or turned OFF by the homeowner (I can turn the "ringer" off on both my phones). It all comes down in the end to taking personal responsibility for your safety....either you use common sense in tornadic situations and live or don't and die; the NWS and storm spotters can only do so much.....

My kudos to SPC and the WSFO offices in Tampa Bay and Melbourne....I was awake watching the situation last night; they did a heckuva job (esp. KMLB); did everything possible to save lives.

PW

[Scott Olson]

There are nearly 100 photos of storm damage avaliable from the Orlando Sentinel.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/orl-stormphotos-mg,0,4399274.gallery?coll=orl-home-headlines

At the moment this looks like it could be a very costly event in terms of destruction and loss of life. When astrong rain-wrapped tornado occurs at night, it's a trifecta for disaster.

I've put together an overview of the radar data from this event.
Radar Analysis of Florida Tornadoes (http://www.axisofnature.com/WordPress/index.php)

[Alexandre Aguiar]

I've put together an overview of the radar data from this event. Radar Analysis of Florida Tornadoes (http://www.axisofnature.com/WordPress/index.php)


Dear Scott

Extraordinary !!!! Your blog is great !! I would like to post a comment there, but It is unavailable. So I write here what I would write there: "Extraordinary Job". Thank you also for relocating the thread. The Orlando Sentil also has the 911 calls during the tornadoes:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/orl-tornado911calls-gallery,0,5608954.audiogallery?coll=orl-home-headlines

By the way, can anyone confirm if this is the wintertime most letal tornado outbreak or tornado event in Florida or the South ?

Alexandre

[Perry Williams]

Dear Scott

Extraordinary !!!! Your blog is great !! I would like to post a comment there, but It is unavailable. So I write here what I would write there: "Extraordinary Job". Thank you also for relocating the thread. The Orlando Sentil also has the 911 calls during the tornadoes:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/orl-tornado911calls-gallery,0,5608954.audiogallery?coll=orl-home-headlines

By the way, can anyone confirm if this is the wintertime most letal tornado outbreak or tornado event in Florida or the South ?

Alexandre

Deadliest winter tornado outbreak? No..

The February 22-23, 1998 tornado outbreak (also near Orlando and Daytona Beach) killed 42 people....25 in one large long track 200 mph tornado which struck Kissimmee. This was both the single deadliest (25) tornado and deadliest tornado outbreak in Florida history (42 deaths).

On February 21, 1971, a vicious tornado outbreak struck Mississippi and NE Louisiana. 121 lives were lost, mostly in western Mississippi as the result of three very violent tornadoes (one F5 and 2 F4's) which were all long track (one possessed a damage path almost 200 miles long).

The deadliest wintertime tornado outbreak however, occurred on February 19, 1884.....and struck the southeast as well as the Ohio Valley (but damage and deaths in Kentucky, Tennessee, southern Illinois and Indiana paled in comparism to the carnage farther south that day). Estimates of the dead ranged from 420 to 1200......as towns and rural areas from Mississippi to North Carolina were leveled. The best estimate is that 800 lives were lost that day. It was an extrordinarily violent tornadic swarm......some of the stories I've read about that outbreak are horrifying (multiple tornadoes striking the same location; a school in rural north Georgia where many died; an extremely vicious evening tornado near Rockingham, North Carolina in which bodies were strewn for miles along the twister's path).

This tornado last night was a bad one.....strong F3 IMO (winds 175-200 mph), but nothing close to the worst wintertime outbreaks in U.S. history.

PW

[beaudodson]

Yes, I believe the NWS said this would be the second most deadliest tornado in the history of Florida. That was reported by the media. Unsure on the accuracy of that.

[Scott Olson]

Dear Scott

Extraordinary !!!! Your blog is great !! I would like to post a comment there, but It is unavailable. So I write here what I would write there: "Extraordinary Job". Thank you also for relocating the thread. The Orlando Sentil also has the 911 calls during the tornadoes:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/orl-tornado911calls-gallery,0,5608954.audiogallery?coll=orl-home-headlines

By the way, can anyone confirm if this is the wintertime most letal tornado outbreak or tornado event in Florida or the South ?

Alexandre

Thanks! As Perry pointed out this wouldn't have been the deadliest but it looks like it might be the second deadliest tornado outbreak in Floridas history. Florida's deadliest winter outbreak (http://www.weather.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/cntrlfl.pdf) and the third deadliest also involved overnight tornadoes.

[Howard Robinson]

WSBTV Atlanta has some pictures of damage path.
http://www.wsbtv.com/index.html

[Mark Farnik]

I'd like to point out that as devastating and tragic as this storm was, it could have been far, far worse.The tornado tracked only 20 miles north of Orlando. If that supercell had tracked only 20 miles farther to the south, you would have had what looks to have been a quarter mile to as much as a half mile wide, strong E-F3 tornado plowing through the metro Orlando area, population just shy of 2 million as of the July 2006 census, at 3:15 in the morning. Sounds like the plot out of a tv disaster movie, doesn't it?
I know without a doubt that had this tornado struck Orlando, the death toll would have been considerably, if not staggeringly higher. And the damage could have easily reached into the tens of billions of dollars, especially if the storm had hit any of the countless multi-billion dollar theme parks that pepper the vicinity. Thank god it hit a slightly less densely populated (relative to most of Florida) area. It was still a terrible tragedy, nonetheless. My heart goes out to those who lost so much, whether it was their homes, their possessions, their loved ones or any heartbreaking combination of the above. My prayers, like the rest of yours, are with them.
I take some small comfort in the fact the tornado missed Orlando this time. Sooner or later, though, the Orlando metro will get hit by a significant tornado; the city lies right smack dab in the middle of a mini tornado alley prone to violent, nighttime tornado outbreaks. It's not a matter of if, just a matter of when...
We can only hope last night's tragedy in Lady Lake and Paisley will encourage all Floridians to buy weather radios. Because if they don't take heed, I have no doubt that when Orlando's number does come up, she will likely be the first major city to suffer 50 or more fatalities in a single tornado in over 60 years.

[Perry Williams]

I'd like to point out that as devastating and tragic as this storm was, it could have been far, far worse.The tornado tracked only 20 miles north of Orlando. If that supercell had tracked only 20 miles farther to the south, you would have had what looks to have been a quarter mile to as much as a half mile wide, strong E-F3 tornado plowing through the metro Orlando area, population just shy of 2 million as of the July 2006 census, at 3:15 in the morning. Sounds like the plot out of a tv disaster movie, doesn't it?
I know without a doubt that had this tornado struck Orlando, the death toll would have been considerably, if not staggeringly higher. And the damage could have easily reached into the tens of billions of dollars, especially if the storm had hit any of the countless multi-billion dollar theme parks that pepper the vicinity. Thank god it hit a slightly less densely populated (relative to most of Florida) area. It was still a terrible tragedy, nonetheless. My heart goes out to those who lost so much, whether it was their homes, their possessions, their loved ones or any heartbreaking combination of the above. My prayers, like the rest of yours, are with them.
I take some small comfort in the fact the tornado missed Orlando this time. Sooner or later, though, the Orlando metro will get hit by a significant tornado; the city lies right smack dab in the middle of a mini tornado alley prone to violent, nighttime tornado outbreaks. It's not a matter of if, just a matter of when...
We can only hope last night's tragedy in Lady Lake and Paisley will encourage all Floridians to buy weather radios. Because if they don't take heed, I have no doubt that when Orlando's number does come up, she will likely be the first major city to suffer 50 or more fatalities in a single tornado in over 60 years.

I've been thinking the same thing....as bad and tragic as both this tornado and the 1998 Florida tornadoes were, it could have been far worse.

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Well, yes, if I ever(even if it happens in 50 years) come to the USA, then the first thing I would do is buying a weather radio. I hope that any Estonians living in Florida weren't affected. I have found out that quite a number of them is living there.

[Jason McIntosh]

Every state has their historic tornado of all time. For WI it is Barneveld. Even though the New Richmond, WI tornado killed more people; Barneveld has always remained the unthinkable disaster. Just like the FL tornado(es) of 2/2/07; Barneveld was hit with a tornado in the middle of the night. As I watched the news this morning all I could think about was Barneveld and how it must have been to wake up to the monster. Regardless of the F or EF scale; it's amazing that more people didn't die. Barneveld was an F-5 and killed 9 people. The Lady Lake/Paisley looks to be an F-3 and killed at least 19 people. It's horrible that such a tragedy can happen. Yes it's possible that more can be done to get the warnings out to people. Even if there was a law to own a weather radio does that mean you have to turn it on? The NWS did it's job in warning the public whether or not they were listening. If there was a community of stormchasers like us we would all be outside of town. I hope that this tragedy can get more people involved so that next time this happens the people will be ready. This was a wake up call for everyone.

[GPhillips]

Preliminary estimate was a "low-end EF-3."
Yes, but that's just from the Tampa Bay office for a part of one county. The main tornado track and fatalities were in WFO Melbourne's county warning area. I'm not saying the rating will be any higher there, but it certainly could be.

[Miriam Lawrence]

...the city lies right smack dab in the middle of a mini tornado alley prone to violent, nighttime tornado outbreaks.

My apologies for asking a stupid question, but I'm a rank armchair lurker, and I know I should already know this but I don't... what is the exact meteorological explanation for that tendency for tornadoes to hit this part of Fla. at night in winter? Is it just that at this time of year, the upper level air only cools enough at night to enable explosive supercell development? Or is something else at work?

Again, very sorry for the "duh" question, but this isn't the type of answer that is easily Googled (I tried before embarrassing myself here!). Thanks!

[Scott Olson]

Some preliminary info from MLB:
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.nous42.KMLB.html

INITIAL FIELD REPORTS ARE THAT A HIGH END EF-3 TORNADO STRUCK THIS
AREA CAUSING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES...AND CAUSING
LARGE TREES TO BECOME DEBARKED WITH ONLY THE STUBS OF THE LARGEST
BRANCHES REMAINING. THE TORNADO AT PAISLEY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ONE-QUARTER MILE
WIDE.

[Jeff Miller]

To add on what Scott said, Some more information for users, adding on an EF2...

THEY HAVE REPORTED A HIGH END EF3 (~150-160 MPH) FROM LAKE MACK TO
THE LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE AND A HIGH END EF2 IN THE DELAND AREA.
THE TEAMS ARE STILL CONDUCTING THEIR SURVEY OF THE LONG DAMAGE
TRACK...AND ONE WILL SOON BE SURVEYING THE HEAVILY DAMAGED AREAS
FROM PAISLEY TO LADY LAKE AND THE VILLAGES

Really curious what they are going to estimate the Lady Lake damage at.

[Stan Rose]

My apologies for asking a stupid question, but I'm a rank armchair lurker, and I know I should already know this but I don't... what is the exact meteorological explanation for that tendency for tornadoes to hit this part of Fla. at night in winter? Is it just that at this time of year, the upper level air only cools enough at night to enable explosive supercell development? Or is something else at work?

Again, very sorry for the "duh" question, but this isn't the type of answer that is easily Googled (I tried before embarrassing myself here!). Thanks!

Miriam; not at all a dumb question, at least I hope not cause I consider myself an expert in severe wx, and i don't know the answer, or even if that's a valid statement. So maybe someone can enlighten us :)
What I do know from basic climatology is that strong/violent tornadoes in fla peak in the morning (~9am) although a good number do occur at night. Probably to some extent we're more familiar with nightime outbreaks since they tend to kill more people. There may be something to your idea of decreased destabilization (i dunno, but i doubt it) Or maybe the land-sea temp differences have something to do with it (you'd expect greater temp difference at night with any cold push, no?) Im really just grasping at straws. The main thing I would emphasize is that diurnal heating factors aren't gonna play a serious role for the number of outbreaks; winter outbreaks are going to be more dependent on strong dynamics (strong jet/front) which can occur at any time of the day/night, and obviously the jet is going to be well positioned this time of year. But I'm not really 'up' on Florida weather, so maybe someone can give us both a better response.:confused:

[Perry Williams]

My apologies for asking a stupid question, but I'm a rank armchair lurker, and I know I should already know this but I don't... what is the exact meteorological explanation for that tendency for tornadoes to hit this part of Fla. at night in winter? Is it just that at this time of year, the upper level air only cools enough at night to enable explosive supercell development? Or is something else at work?

Again, very sorry for the "duh" question, but this isn't the type of answer that is easily Googled (I tried before embarrassing myself here!). Thanks!

If the atmospheric conditions are favorable (as they were the other night), a strong to violent tornado can strike anytime of day or night.....at any time of year. Nighttime and early morning intense tornadoes aren't uncommon here in the deep south; in fact, the deadliest tornado in Georgia history occurred the morning of April 6, 1936....when a large F4 tornado struck Gainesville at breakfasttime (8:30 am) and killed 203 people. The deadliest tornado in Florida history was the Kissimmee F3 after midnight on February 23, 1998....which took 25 lives.

If this tornado turns out (as I believe it will) to be one single long track tornado from The Villages to Deland, it will become the 2nd deadliest Florida tornado of record.....with the death toll currently standing at 20.
Nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous....especially here in the southeast where many residents live in mobile homes/ mobile home communities. Of even more concern to me is the population explosion in many areas of the south in recent years. This tornado would have impacted far less people two or three decades ago (I'm old enough to remember when Lake county, Florida was rural and sparsely populated); as the population of mobile home residents continue to increase in areas prone to nighttime tornadoes, I fear we'll see more frequent tornado disasters of this proportion in coming years.....or possibly even deadlier :(

PW

[Jeff Miller]

Latest information (http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.nous42.KMLB.html) has come in showing that there are at least 3 seperate tornadoes in this tornado family (http://weather.ncbuy.com/glossary.html?action=LETTER&term=T), what is obviously a cyclic (http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/wwhlpr/cyclic_storm.rxml) HP (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/42/) supercell (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercell). As what seems to be the case often, the second of the three tornadoes appears to be the most intense and I believe the longest tracked tornado, with the third being the weakest. Ratings indicate no higher than EF3 and no lower than EF1 with the known surveyed tornadoes.

EVENT SUMMARY AS OF 5:34 PM CST

NUMBER OF KNOWN TORNADOES: 3

TORNADO 1
Name: The Villages/Lady Lake Tornado
Touchdown: Sumter county near Wildwood.
Fatalities: Lady Lake (6)
Maximum Rating: HIGH EF3 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/ef-scale.html) (155-160 MPH)
Path Length: 15 Miles
Time Struck Lady Lake: 3:20 AM
Maximum Width: 1/4 Mile

TORNADO 2:
Name: Lake Mack/Deland Tornado
Fatalities: Lake Mack (11), Forest Drive and State Route 44 (3)
Rating: HIGH EF3 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/ef-scale.html)(150-165 MPH)
Path Length: 22 Miles
Time Struck Lake Mack: 3:48 AM
Time Struck Deland: 4:02 AM
Maximum Width: 1/8 Mile

TORNADO 3:
Name: New Smyrna Beach/Ponce Inlet Tornado
Fatalities: 0
Rating: EF1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/ef-scale.html)
Touch Down: Just East of I-95
Path Length: 5 Miles
Time Struck Ponce Inlet: 4:27 AM

[Alexandre Aguiar]

The photos in the front pages of some Florida's newspapers are just incredible e justifiy what many folks said earlier in the thread: "it could be much, much worse". Here are the front pages:

Florida Today (http://www.metsul.com/__editor/filemanager/files/capa_tornado_florida_today.jpg)

El Nuevo Heraldo (http://http://www.metsul.com/__editor/filemanager/files/capa_tornado_el_nuevo_heraldo.jpg)

St. Petesburg Times (http://www.metsul.com/__editor/filemanager/files/capa_tornado_st._petesburg_times.jpg)

Star-Banner (http://www.metsul.com/__editor/filemanager/files/capa_tornado_starbanner.jpg)

The Tampa Tribune (http://www.metsul.com/__editor/filemanager/files/capa_tornado_the_tampa_tribune.jpg)

[Jeff Miller]

Thanks for the St. Petersburg Times reprint, Alexandre.

Not sure if anyone else here caught this yet, but how about "Supercells, Tornadoes that Last" article on the front page? The front page article goes on to tell how, and I quote,

"A Supercell is an especially deadly type of tornado that rarely strikes the state."

WRONG...as we all here are fully aware, supercells are NOT the tornado..a supercell spawns a tornado...and is certainly not an especially deadly type of tornado, as all tornadoes can be deadly. Heck, with their doctrine, we should start issuing "Supercell Warnings"!!!

"Supercells last longer than other types of tornadoes, which is why this twister stayed powerful enough to rip across three Florida counties".

WRONG. These tornadoes were a family of three, this was a HP cyclic supercell that spawned strong tornadoes of average path length and not totally abnormal intensity given the meteorological conditions. and again, a Supercell is NOT a tornado!!!

I would have at least like to have seen these journalists research their information with enough detail to appropriately state that the Supercell is the storm responsible for the tornado, and not a "type of tornado" in and of itself. If they want to talk about powerful tornadoes, they need to look at an article on EF ratings. I am not sure if I am the only one, but these kind of journalistic blunders really make me wonder how much research they really do in their stories -- or who their 'sources' were in the first place.

Now we have the city of St. Petersburg educated to watch out for them big ol' supercellnadoes. Sigh. If I was editor in chief of this paper, these writers would be at the least reprimanded and at the most, sent down for their new jobs -- refilling the ink cartridges down in the printing rooms.

[Tony Lyza]

Thanks for the St. Petersburg Times reprint, Alexandre.

Not sure if anyone else here caught this yet, but how about "Supercells, Tornadoes that Last" article on the front page? The front page article goes on to tell how, and I quote,

"A Supercell is an especially deadly type of tornado that rarely strikes the state."

WRONG...as we all here are fully aware, supercells are NOT the tornado..a supercell spawns a tornado...and is certainly not an especially deadly type of tornado, as all tornadoes can be deadly. Heck, with their doctrine, we should start issuing "Supercell Warnings"!!!

"Supercells last longer than other types of tornadoes, which is why this twister stayed powerful enough to rip across three Florida counties".

WRONG. These tornadoes were a family of three, this was a HP cyclic supercell that spawned strong tornadoes of average path length and not totally abnormal intensity given the meteorological conditions. and again, a Supercell is NOT a tornado!!!

I would have at least like to have seen these journalists research their information with enough detail to appropriately state that the Supercell is the storm responsible for the tornado, and not a "type of tornado" in and of itself. If they want to talk about powerful tornadoes, they need to look at an article on EF ratings. I am not sure if I am the only one, but these kind of journalistic blunders really make me wonder how much research they really do in their stories -- or who their 'sources' were in the first place.

Now we have the city of St. Petersburg educated to watch out for them big ol' supercellnadoes. Sigh. If I was editor in chief of this paper, these writers would be at the least reprimanded and at the most, sent down for their new jobs -- refilling the ink cartridges down in the printing rooms.
That doesn't irk me nearly as much as how many national TV outlets were calling the damage F2 damage when the Sumter County survey was the only one out, even though that survey mentioned the damage being of low-EF3 intensity.

[richhorodner]

I am not one to defend reporters, as I am well familiar with the typical half-knowledge reporters write on many a subject. It appears by the wording in the article that the reporter did do "some" research on the subject; likely by making one phone call to a local weather service. He was likely told that these tornadoes were supercell spawned; as opposed to most Florida (summertime) tornadoes, that are really landspouts, with little upper air support as are those in the central and southern plains. And a majority of these are F0 tornadoes, that last for only seconds or a few minutes.

Appears as if he "just" left the word spawned out of his story. He should have written supercell-spawned tornadoes are more often deadly; and that would have made his article a little more accurate to the science oriented, or storm chaser.

I would assume that almost every article in most newspapers that deals in any discipline that is "foreign" to the reporter assigned to cover it, contains similar "itty-bitty" mistakes in nomenclature; that when viewed by experts in that specific discipline, would be totally inaccurate and declared "WRONG" .

So, the reporter would not be fired when an expert in the field points out the meaning-changing wording the reporter used when trying to understand the details of his newly learned knowledge; or just condense his word usage.

As a case in point, just watch the Weather Channel. How many times does the on-camera guy/gal say west is east, or the Pacific Ocean is really the Atlantic Ocean, or "this dry area around the tropical depression will prevent its strengthening" just 6 hours before it deepens by two categories.

I would not worry that all people of St. Petersburg are now duly mis-educated; as most people that read the paper do not study the wording as if they were going to be tested on it, or do they analyze each word for its scientific accuracy.

I have lived in Florida for over 50 yrs. My head is in the clouds as often as any storm chaser or weather nut. I have seen many thousands of thunderstorms, but have NEVER viewed a rotating one. Now, I have seen dopplar radar based tornado warnings go out several times a year; so there is some rotation once in a while; but not your typically easy to confirm by people viewing these storms nearby.

[mrobinett]

I have lived in Florida for over 50 yrs. My head is in the clouds as often as any storm chaser or weather nut. I have seen many thousands of thunderstorms, but have NEVER viewed a rotating one. Now, I have seen dopplar radar based tornado warnings go out several times a year; so there is some rotation once in a while; but not your typically easy to confirm by people viewing these storms nearby.

Same here, been here 27 years, that about sums it up. One day about two years ago I got tired of the same Florida setups and stepped into the "Big Arena" I havent been the same since.

[Mike Hollingshead]

It has been pretty interesting how much more they are mentioning the term supercell. I wonder how many chaser sites are seeing some increase in traffic from folks looking up more info on this "new" term "supercell". Sure if you live around the OKC market I'm guessing it is not so new to people, and even to some degree around Omaha or other larger cities in the "normal" alley. I'm just not sure I've seen it used so often on all the larger networks covering something.

One thing I've seen a lot from the set of images of mine that go around and around, is that MANY people don't even need to see any form of funnel to call it a tornado. Over and over I've seen those images, without any sign of a tornado, called tornadoes. Hopefully they'll continue to use the term more so some can maybe understand things a little better.

[Danny Neal]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/surveys/020207/audio/NWS_Warning.mp3

Audio file of the TOR warning for Lady Lake. Thought it was interesting to hear. Sort of a "proof" that they were warned and if you had a NOAA Wx Radio, this is what you might have heard....

This is also found on the preliminary survey page of the tornadoes from MLB

[Mike Theiss]

Here is a link to some damage photos I took in Central Florida.

http://www.ultimatechase.com/Chase_Accounts/florida_tornado_damage_photos_2007.htm

Mike Theiss
UltimateChase.com

[Miriam Lawrence]

Nighttime and early morning intense tornadoes aren't uncommon here in the deep south

Thanks, Perry! Exactly -- but that's what I'm wondering: why is this true? I've heard it more than once, from reliable sources. For example, this comes from the Florida Division of Emergency Management page on tornadoes (http://www.floridadisaster.org/hwa03/tornado.htm), emphasis mine:
Over most of the nation large killer tornadoes tend to occur in the late afternoon and early evening hours. This is due to the afternoon buildup of heat in the lower atmosphere that lingers into the early nighttime hours. Florida is different. Tornado climatology shows us that strong to violent tornadoes are just as likely to occur after midnight as they are in the afternoon. This unique feature makes these tornadoes more dangerous, because most people are asleep after midnight and do not receive warnings relayed by commercial radio or television.
The only thing I can think of is that because the state is so narrow, surrounded by water, and tropical, that the air can remain energy-filled much later into the night and therefore more capable of fueling strong tornadoes. I'll bring this over to the general weather discussion to see what people say, if anything.

[Justin E. Reed]

I chased this storm down. I left Jacksonville about midnight. Kinda hung around in Bunnell, some damage from earlier storms, lots of street flooding. I tracked down another intense one in Andalusia. I saw the storm go from 2 strikes a minute, to over a dozen, drove thru heavy rain, and then pulled over in a gap between trees by a flooded field. DEAD CALM and the storm was glowing, lightning east, it sounded like a roaring waterfall directly overhead, and was rotating rapidly. The pines gently leaned to the W, then went N, W,S,E , and then blasted easily to the east at 65mph, many fell and a barn blew apart, scary stuff. Headed south to catch the Lady Lake one at 95 &4, all I saw was debris raining outta the sky, I called NWS Melbourne and reported it, that was their first confirmation that it did happen. Very intense storms, if the time comes again, shoot, I'd do it, just don't tell my chain of command.

[Mike Davis]

Minor damage to several mobile homes and one large building rolled at Ratliff Road/Thomas Creek in Callahan, FL. I am 8 miles from it, Vchased it, and received 7 photos laptopped from scene to study. With the NWS TOR Warn, and radar indicating a TVS with 41 k/s, the photos seem to confirm an F0.

Mike Davis, N4FOZ