4/3/07 FCST: TX / AR / TN / KY / MO / IA / IL / IN

[Kevin Askew]

Thought I would start it, Let the pros finish it. From what I can see This looks like first BIG threat of 07. Any takers?
Kevin

[Brandon Sullivan]

Im not sure yet.. Timing may not work out for me.. I would think that March 1st would have been the biggest risk.. Im headed back from IA, didnt see too much so myabe I will take a trip!!

[Danny Neal]

What makes you sure this is the first BIG risk of 07? At least give the reasons why you think so.....what is it exactly that you see and what exactly makes this so noteworthy? j/w?

[SteveCarter]

Not sure where you think this "BIG" outbreak would come from. Maybe I'm missing something somewhere. 2/24 and 3/1 were already pretty big. If I'm not mistaken, both were high risk days. I chased both, but don't remember which was what. Where do you see this severe wx coming from on Tuesday?

[Robert Dewey]

I think you really need to add IN/OH/MI to this thread too... If the NAM pans out, the GL area would be looking at quite an outbreak as very good low level shear exists above an area of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE on the order of AOA 2000J/KG), all ahead of a well established boundary. The system doesn't really blow up any warm sector precipitation until it reaches the IL/IN area, so there shouldn't be too much in the way of previous-day debris to contend with.

The positioning of the system is pretty close to the Palm Sunday 1965 event, but the strength is much weaker (i.e. Palm Sunday featured 500mb winds of 135knts).

I definitely wouldn't say with certainty that this won't be a big outbreak (at least a SVR outbreak -- TOR potential is always up in the air)... While the likelyhood is relatively small, it can't be completely ruled out.

[Kevin Askew]

Maybe I should have said for this region? Anyway for this region it looks good for at least a heck of a squall line but if other parameters come together IE sheer, this will be a good one.... Instibility is no question but wind fields look suspect for a "Major" event. Besides when I started this I took quick overview of setup. It still looks like the first big event for our region. Regardless of tornado threat. Hope this clarifies privious post Steve, Daniel...
Kevin

[Kevin Askew]

BTW, thanks for changing topic. I dont know how to change it lol.

[Danny Neal]

Maybe I should have said for this region? Anyway for this region it looks good for at least a heck of a squall line but if other parameters come together IE sheer, this will be a good one.... Instibility is no question but wind fields look suspect for a "Major" event. Besides when I started this I took quick overview of setup. It still looks like the first big event for our region. Regardless of tornado threat. Hope this clarifies privious post Steve, Daniel...
Kevin


It does thank you, just wondering what your point of view was. Not trying to be an ass. I really haven't taken a good look ahead, I am still focused on todays events. Although I think I may be on the cold side of this system if the dates match up with the temps predicted. I will go through it a little bit later on before I match up exactly what I want to say......

Danny

[Grady Joslin]

For some reason I just got an uneasy feeling about this. I probably be coming into this storm system late, but the thought of making a mad dash to Washington County, Indiana if not further north from Louisville after work is kind of unsettling.

Been looking at different forecast... its almost as if this low may come to a point where it may do a whip lash through southern Indiana. But then again I could be looking at this wrong.

I'll pack my stuff in my van that day and see what happens. But it could be one of the first biggest threats at least for my area.

Anyone in the southern Indiana who may consider going after this?

[SteveCarter]

Well, that clears it up a bit for me too. I haven't seen anything yet that looks that terribly good, but....that doesn't mean much, considering I've only glanced at the extended forecast. I hope something does happen in S IN since it's only a 7 hour drive from here, and THAT's not far compared to a lot of chases. One thing tho...southern Indiana is saying there IS a chance of severe weather tuesday afternoon, and evening...so....who knows?

[Jared Farrer]

This system is still looking good on the latest runs. One thing I thought I would share though is southern IN is a very hilly place, along with dense forests everywhere. Very frustrating place to chase, I have had experience chasing in this area and it sucks. Their are however pockets of better terrain here and there. But if things continue to look like they do the chase area will be widespread enough to warrant better terrain up in the northern areas.

And yes this will be (IF) the first real big day in a long time. I cant remember the last nadors we have even had modestly close to this area.

[APritchard]

I think it looks alright, but nothing to go ape about for chasing. This system just screams through the area. The front begins at 12Z in Missouri/Kansas and ends the day in the middle of Indiana. Surface winds could also be better. Southwest winds will make things want to go linear. Winds upstairs are good though, as is instability so I suppose it warrants watching. Doesn't scream big outbreak to me right now though. I'm also not sure why anyone would want to chase southern Indiana. You'd have better luck chasing Missouri. With the way the set up is looking now, you have plenty more chaseable options than that. If you don't want to pay for gas to go further, you may as well stay home because you'll just be wasting gas by chasing southern Indiana anyway.

[Brian Stertz]

At first glance of the 00z ETA, the hopes of sig severe would be across SE Missouri/MO Bootheel into extreme NE Arkansas. Lots of time for the models to sort this one out. Not a whole lot of upper support per se, but surface based instability ahead of the front looks late April like.

[Kevin Askew]

Weird some of the WFO's arent picking up on this. Seems SPC is thinking rapid development will be here & moving into ohio valley area wth threat of tornadoes. I would think as SPC gets better handle on it, so will local WFO's.

[rdale]

All HWO's that I'm seeing from the area talk about the potential so I'm not sure what you mean by "not picking up" on the event... If you expect them to add "tornadoes and damaging winds" to the zones at T-2 days that's a little much ;>

[Kevin Askew]

Yes most seem on same page, what I meant was not picking up on a severe wx episode in general. That was yesterday... Yes all seem in agreement a episode of some shape will occur. A few more sheer parameters come into place it could get ugly. Wont bet on anything until day 1. Regardless, will be chasing/spotting as usual. Havin fun doing it. Will hopefully get on the storm of the day in our region. LOL
Kevin

[APritchard]

I don't know. It's certainly a powerful system capable of producing a good sized severe weather episode, but looking at it for chase prospects it just doesn't look as good to me yet. I still don't like how fast the low moves. The low still looks to move from Missouri in the morning to near Ohio by nightfall. I can only assume any storms forming near the low are just going to be flying by. If I had to pick the most optomistic source of info for this set up it would be the SPC's day 3. They make it sound more enticing than looking at the models.

Instability still appears quite good, so that's a plus. I like that this is a fresh system, meaning that we aren't chasing the leftovers of a plains outbreak the day before. The air should be uncontaminated and we won't be worrying about recovering from a morning mcs. Winds upstairs are screaming, so speed shear is good. Directional shear is another story. Surface winds are still way too sw'erly for me to get too excited about supercells and tornadoes yet. As the SPC hinted at, it may be more of a wind event with bows and line segments, with maybe a chance at some ebedded supercells and rain hidden tornadoes.

We'll see, maybe with time the system will slow down a little bit, and we can hope it becomes a little more negatively tilted or I think we'll be chasing shelf clouds. As it stands, I will be chasing merely because I already have the day off and it looks like the last decent shot at severe weather for at least two weeks in the midwest.

[SteveCarter]

There seems to be a LOT of poossibilities with this system....for sure. Everything seems to be coming together, but the speed IS reason for concern. H5 Flow along the base of the upper low in excess of 100 KTS is a GOOD thing. Vertical shear, instability, DP's...all look favorable. To early to pick a target, but if I HAD to..lol...it would be Metropolis, IL to Mt. Vernon, IL. GREAT road structures there too. Straight roads, and a virtual checkerboard of paved roads, and VERY flat terrain. My favorite area to chase. Not getting very conclusive soundings from the NAM or GFS.

[APritchard]

Not sure I would call that part of Illinois "great" at all. Once you get south of Mt. Vernon it's basically all hills, and winding roads, very similar to southern Indiana. North of Mt. Vernon is a different story, however.

If I had to pick an area that looked the best based on 18z models it would be eastern Illinois into northern and central Indiana. The 18z run slowed it down a little, and actually slightly improved directional shear. Maybe we're on to something with that, but it always seems like the 18z runs like to have a mind of their own.

[david diehl]

Was trying to look at the buflit nam data, unfourtunally I cannot load any recet dats for it.
Looking at the GFS however, Lafayet indiana is showing a nice shoot to supercell by 19 Z and droping back out by 22Z, not sure, thinking about chasing it, but no gas, so unless I can find someone top chase with that day, I will more than lileky be sitting in the arm chair chasing that day

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Looking at models myself, as an Indiana chase is not terribly far for me in Dayton, OH.

I see a rapidly developing surface low, but moving rather fast and swinging a cold front through by 12z wednesday. Upper winds are WSW but surface winds are going to be SW (maybe SSW if lucky and they back a bit more).

I am debating whether to head out tomorrow, but I most likely will not venture too far west of Indiana given the fast moving system. Definitely wait for tonight / tomorrows early outlooks and data!

[Ray Walker]

How about adding Oklahoma to this thread? It looks as though the most intense storms will be in Arkansas and mossouri, but Oklahoma and NE texas also look ok. Instabillity will be very strong to possibly extreme across this area, and shear looks good given the amount of instability in place. However the only thing I see that is a problem is the cap. If the cap can, and probably will be broken then intense supercells appear likely.

[Terry Tyler]

i really like the forecasted nam sounding out of lzk...im probably setting up somewhere in northeast AR and find a good library, but i dont know...gas sure is expensive in a blazer...looks like a large hail damaging wind pattern with that uni-directional shear, so i dont know yet...im only going if it changes to a more tornadic profile...

[SteveCarter]

This is a tough one to call. The probabilities of tubes seem somewhat marginal at best. (Large)Hail likely, and some great storm structures too. It's spread out over such a large area, it makes it hard to zero in anywhere, and the speed of this thing is still screaming. On the plus side..for me..it's not a terribly long drive..about 450 miles one way. 6 hours..(I drive fast..lol) Dilemma. If I DID go, I think still...southern tip of Illinois. Thinking linear may be more of a reality here too.

[Robert Dewey]

I'm watching my local area here in MI as the warm front pushes north (hopefully). Low level shear will be quite impressive, and if we can build a tight enough gradient along and just south of the warm front, we might be looking at a decent (although weak) tornado potential. Elevated instability along and north of the front should provide a large hail threat...

Also, not exactly severe weather, but the potential for flooding is quite high. I know there is still a ton of standing water around my area, and with widespread 1-3 inch rains (locally higher), things could get wet pretty quick.

[APritchard]

This is a tough one to call. The probabilities of tubes seem somewhat marginal at best. (Large)Hail likely, and some great storm structures too. It's spread out over such a large area, it makes it hard to zero in anywhere, and the speed of this thing is still screaming. On the plus side..for me..it's not a terribly long drive..about 450 miles one way. 6 hours..(I drive fast..lol) Dilemma. If I DID go, I think still...southern tip of Illinois. Thinking linear may be more of a reality here too.

That's a LONG drive for this set up, especially if you plan on chasing in the forrests of southern Illinois. Not to be a downer, but I can't think of a worse place to chase in the area. Down there it will likely be a screaming squall line early in the day anyway.

I still plan to chase since it looks local and I have the afternoon off but I'm still not overly thrilled by the setup. Funny how this thread started off so active with talks of "palm sunday revisited" but now there's only a couple posts per day now that the event has finally arrived. Reality?

I'll probably set up near the Illinois/Indiana border and hope that I can catch a small bow or some rogue supercell that holds some tornado hope. Otherwise it appears I'll be setting up for shelf cloud photos, and then 5 minutes of high winds.

Instability is still good. Surface winds are doable... SSW to SW. Tons of forcing along the front though which is likely the killer in the event that will lead to the insta-squall line type day.

Those who were wanting to have their states added, any input on your areas prospects?

[rdale]

Looks like two chances for MI but neither really impressing me... History of 1" hailers over IA/WI/IL should be in the state by 4-7am, elevated instab still could result in some moderate hail but nothing too big.

Then the big question is amount of clearing combined with warm front final location, I'm not terribly excited about any tor chances in the state but another shot at hail in the late afternoon or evening.

[Brandon Sullivan]

The more and more I look at the new moderate risk, the more I want to head out... Im just worried about timing, and primary storm mode... It would be nice to be in the 10% tor risk, but nothing happened the last time I was in it.. Good luck to everyone who goes out.. Maybe I'll cya guys out there.. Take care.

[Shane Adams]

Longshot chance for an isolated surprise around the DFW area late today. WRF shows isolated activity by 0Z. Despite dreadful shear profiles in this area, the instability more than makes up for it, and could set the stage for one of those "nobody saw that coming" tornadoes. I'm choosing to work, but I'm taking my gear with me...just in case.

[Jared Farrer]

I think I might target the effingham mclean IL area for starters. I should be able to fly north or south if need be. Not to sure on this one but it could turn out ok. That initial early morning stuff should weaken and then dissipate. Return flow should start up by about noon, along with surface heating.

If I had to guess I would guess with the sheer profile, that their could be some splitting cells with right movers being dominate. And the area should be central to southern IL. But I think pretty much the whole area could pop.

[Jim Hunt]

With today a work day, I will be chasing close to home in north central Indiana. I think there will be some activity but my forecasting skill are not honed enough to say anything specific.

Good luck to everyone today.

[Doyle McIntosh]

Central to north central Indiana looks to be my target today as well. Everything is moving to fast to go anywhere else. The clear skies over Indiana this morning are also helping to encourage this choice. Good luck everyone, and lets some good pictures!

[cdcollura]

Good day, all

Planning on an afternoon chase and already getting ready to leave work early. I will target central Indiana near IND for starts. I am expecting a high wind / hail event but watch those cells on the south ends of those line segments, there could be a tail-end charley storm from those.

[Jim Cross]

Southeast Missouri into Northeast Arkansas looks to be a good area today.I will be heading to near Caruthersville Missouri shortly and stop there for more data at the Drury Inn (good wifi) along I-55.The areas east of here in southern Illinois and Indiana look good but im not chasing in the trees and hills.Hopefully i will get some storms west or south of Caruthersville before they cross the river.Good luck to everybody that makes it out today.

[Brian Stertz]

Probably not an exact repeat of last year's April 2nd event...but the possibilities are there for tornadic supercells. Looks like the primed airmass currently residing across SW Missouri into NW Arkansas will shove eastward towards the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley area this afternoon. A nice 6 degree 700mb cap will hold things in check until initiation after 4pm today from SE Missouri into NC/NE Arkansas. The supercells could get pretty tough as the approach the Mississippi River from S.Illinois into the MO Bootheel and NE Arkansas. This would be my chase target for this afternoon. I am liking today's potential more and more looking over the SPC Meso parameters. Good luck to those chasing today...even if the chase window is kind of short based on very tough east-southeast storm motions expected across the Mississippi River.

[Kelley Austin]

I agree with Brian on this one. My chase partner an I will target Jonesboro, Paragould AR area. Good WiFi around Arkansas State University and good road network to head ENE to Caruthersville to cross the river when needed.
Good luck to all those out there this afternoon and night, be careful.
The cloud cover here in North East AR ATM almost non existant. Things will most likely get heated up a little later this afternoon.

[Robert Dewey]

I'm pretty interested in the 0-3km CAPE across the lower MI area near the warm front. Looking at the case study of the April 20th 2004 event [Jon Davies], this situation fits in nicely. NAM is the most aggressive, with 0-3km CAPE in excess of 200j/kg, while the RUC is more conservative with 50-100j/kg (highest in the central portion of the state). While 0-3km helicity is somewhat impressive, most of the helicity is found in the 0-1km layer. However, a pretty big limiting factor for tornadogenesis could be LCL heights... The area near the warm front is generally AOA 1000m, while the 4/20/04 event was generally AOB 800m.

[rdale]

I'm beginning to get ready to drop MI from the sevwx threat - not thinking redevelopment will be severe up here...

[Andrew Herron]

Care to elaborate a wee bit?

I'm beginning to get ready to drop MI from the sevwx threat - not thinking redevelopment will be severe up here...

[rdale]

Good moisture and instability to the south of the state, squall line over IN should prevent anything from forming there and moving in, radar loop shows activity moving towards Chicago has fallen apart, everything along the front itself is meaningless.

[Jim Hunt]

Everything fizzled out in north central Indiana. About 1/3" of rain and some minimal lightning. It has all moved east now and should be all but gone from the state in the next 90 minutes.

Overall everything that did happen in the Indy metro area and south seemed to be wind events with dime to nickle sized hail. I am so glad I didn't blow off work for this.

[Kevin Askew]

Well, did get 2 of best of day. Bootheel & Meso and wallcloud, although it wasnt rotating, still a wallcloud. Guess we worked the spot just right with NE AR. cell splitter!