4/12/07 FCST: TX / OK / KS

[Stan Rose]

Was gonna throw this in the general discussion, since its unclear still if it's gonna be the 12th or 13th as a better day, but this is such a potentially significant event (probably deserves another thread for winter potential in CO, WY etc) that it deserves immediate attention. Both GFS and EC are pretty consistent in now bringing a significant trough (-30 deg at h5) through the rockies by thursday. The dynamics with this system look insane. GFS is progging a 979 mb low in CO by the 13th (!!). Big question (among many at this point) is timing and moisture return. The runs have been going back and forth with extent of moisture return, much depending on the strength of the preceding shortwave and attendant front. Latest GFS suggests decent dews wont be in place until the 13th, and may be too far east by then for me to consider a long roadtrip (although--if it really looks good, to east Texas i go! :) ). There's gonna be some significant severe wx somewhere, the where and when to be determined! Will be fun watching over the next few days.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

IMO I think the GFS is way to fast like normal. My current thinking is the threat will be from C KS into N TX eastward on the 13th. All the ingredients are coming together for a pretty signifcant severe wx event over this area though. It's to early to get into specifics, but I think it could be a good setup across the plains on Friday.

[David Drummond]

The only thing I didn't like were the progged dewpoints on the last GFS I looked at last night. As noted, it's been fast on these systems lately, so I suspect it will slow down some as it comes more clearly in to view.

I also suspect that possibly the moisture return may be underforecast, given the recent precipitation over the last couple weeks and the current winter event precipitaton going on, all which will keep things from being bone dry before the LLJ sets up again. I can foresee the reality of rapid moisture return for this system to work with. Especially in TX/OK.

[Ray Walker]

This system looks to have insane wind feilds and dynamics, however the moisture return doesnt excite me yet. However instead of this system being in eastern Oklahoma and east texas I think it will be across central or even Western portions of the plains when the storms fire. However moisture return is a HUGE??? right now. If moisture return is strong, then a massive severe weather outbreak is likely.
Thats the problem with such dynamic systems though, everything has to come together just right for significant outbreaks. This one looks as though it could be one of the big ones though. Especially given the way the season has started off.

[matt patterson]

Even though i think that this will be more a of a friday the 13th event :eek: i will keep my thoughts here until better guidence comes about. Anyway im with Dave on this one, i think that moisture is underforecasted at this time... The folks in SE and E TX are getting soaked right now and will continue to do so for another 12-15 hrs... Also to note that this same area will likley see rain again on Tues.. All this combined will really help in the moisture transfer dept.... Looks like this system has some potential... Also if the central ok target were to hold then we may see the years largest chaser outing to date...being on a friday and all!!!!!

[Adam Atkins]

I believe there is too much emphasis on surface layer/soil moisture. Deep moisture is not progged to return until Friday, which means if there is any mixing and insolation thursday, any moisture will be mixed out which is what the models have depicted. The best shot for any precip would be more of an upslope regime in E Colorado. Unfortunately attm Thursday looks like a waste of good dynamics.

[Mike Hollingshead]

I think anything in the typical plains is toast till after next weekend. Anyone looked at the surface down south lately? lol It's almost 5pm and it's 39 just sw of Houston. Snow reports south of Dallas. The gfs progs another front going into the gulf Wednesday. Friday may have a shot but probably well south into the trees and hills. I'm usually optimistic when it comes to moisture moving north, but man, this cold of air that far south.....OVER the gulf.....call me a pessimist this time! Then again maybe it just seems worse than it is. It doesn't seem like as nasty of a gulf killer as one can get this time of year, but this air outside sure makes it seem like it should be.

As it is, Thursday right now looks like a classic April waste of a system setup. Put some better moisture up along the high plains and it'd be huge, but, that's not going to happen. I'd give FAR sw TX some hope though. Friday if it were to slow down a bit could remind me a lot of April 15, 2006 where moisture made some serious ground and was JUST high enough in se NE for the Beatrice tornado. Drats, I've been trying not to be too optimistic and one post later here I am.

[Shane Adams]

Well, being it's April 7, I was in Waxahachie, TX all day (30 miles south of Dallas) and it SNOWED on me all day, I'm more than a bit pessimistic about ample moisture return. Even if rapid transportation happens in the 11th hour (like last year on 4-15-06 as H mentioned), how deep will it be?

I agree that dynamically this thing looks potent, but the gulf has been getting its arse handed to it all week.

[matt patterson]

I found this Kind of interesting.. It looks like Norman isnt buying into a speedy scenario that the GFS is forecasting... nothing concrete but interesting to say the least...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=4

[Kenny Drake]

Without even looking at the forecast models I can say that moisture return will be a problem before the end of the week. With the deep cold air intrusion last week that pushed into the Gulf I don't see anywhere except maybe TX seeing 60F dewpoints before next weekend. Remember, the May 28th event came after 2 weeks of southerly flow across the plains with no cold air intrusions. Now looking at the models. The slower the system moves the more time we should see for moisture advection. GFS has been too fast in moving the last few systems through the plains, so I would not be surprised to see the main action coming Thursday through the weekend.

[Mike Hollingshead]

Nice slow down on the 0z gfs giving the plains some hope. Better moisture return then too. The moisture return is better as the front ahead of system no longer plows into the gulf. This reminds me of an early system this year where that went away around this time frame out. Probably should change this date to the 13th or just start a new thread for that.

[Jason A.C. Brock]

I think things will slow down a bit and we will be looking more at the 13th perhaps even the 14th. If the Tuesdayish front doesnt make to the Gulf could we possibly see it become staionary and then move North as a warm front or will it jsut wash out? If so and themoisture has until Saturay to return we could be looking at a nice coulpe of setups. 1.along a dryline warm front cool front triple point 2. more isolated cells jsut along the dryline to the south of that area. As always this far out is more like being wishful thinking and a witch doctor than forecasting. Ill jsut be glad to see the severe weather seaso start back up within a week after it snowing in North Texas! I keep telling myself mother nature didnt show us all her goods in March and the rest of the season will be crap. I want this to be a season to remember....and not jsut from the March madness.

[Stan Rose]

I'm fairly impressed with the consistency of the global runs over the last 24 h. I can see why people are pesimistic about the moisture return, but hey--Spring is Spring. I don't think a little snow is gonna slow this one down. Neveretheless, the timing may favor a more eastern show, so i may just have to stay close to home and blizzard chase. I can live with that-:D

[Shane Adams]

After reading H's new post with slightly more optimism regarding moisture return, I went and glanced the h85 loop....there seems to be a 12-18 hour period where the h85 winds remain backed over the gulf prior to the Friday system's arrival. If that becomes reality, then I believe ample moisture could be in place before the dynamics arrive, albeit a smaller area than if we had days upon days of southerly winds leading up to this. Right now this is feeling like a N/C Texas event.

[Mike Hollingshead]

As it is, Thursday right now looks like a classic April waste of a system setup. Put some better moisture up along the high plains and it'd be huge, but, that's not going to happen.

Ooops! Figures. I'd say Thursday looks like the best day if the GFS is at all right. Southwest Oklahoma looks a bit delicious if that moisture return is close. Things certainly looking a lot more optimistic without that Wednesday gufl front. Hard to beat the shear profile currently progged for the area. I'm preparing my sunglasses for all the blinding lightbars I'm sure to see if it pans out.

[Dal Archer]

Wow! What a difference 24 hours makes. I was pretty pessimistic yesterday evening, but now I don't know.

I had not checked the GFS since yesterday afternoon and I was shocked with the difference in projected dewpoints over such a short period after just checking it again. What a major difference from yesterday. If (a big IF) the moisture does manage to return we could be in for a great day on Thursday.

Here's hoping a secondary shot of cold air doesn't wipe out our moisture return over the next few days.........

[SteveCarter]

Grrrrrrr, seeing a diminishing chance here for the entire week ahead. Looks like Wednesday's little system will run into dry air and do about nothing. Thinking this may also lead to a boundary of sorts setting up that inhibits any moisture from moving up into the plains. Just not confident..at all, that the system Friday can crank up to much being this mositure-starved. It's still early tho.(Sun PM) Had started clearing my schedule out for Thu-Sun...just in case. Think I may start filling it back in. I hope I'm wrong.

[Ray Walker]

I'm excited and yet worried at the same time. This system looks as though it is either going to be a bust, or a pretty nasty outbreak. This system looks as though Oklahoma and Texas could be in for a wild ride Thursday and or possibly Friday. If the moisture return is strong the I think we could be dealing with a pretty sizable severe weather event.

[Kevin Polston]

I just took a quick glance at the 00Z GFS. If the GFS is correct (and it is been showing from last nights 00Z run through the 12Z today and now the 00Z tonite).....moisture doesn't look to be a problem for late in the week. By 00Z Fri there are 60 deg dewpoints to the KS/OK border with a well pronounced dryline in western OK south into TX. By 18Z Fri 60 deg dewpoints are in ern KS with mid/upper 60 dewpoints into ern OK/TX. Seems to me with the dynamic system coming out into the plains and well pronounced boundaries and a decent sfc low.....things should be good to go. Assuming the GFS is correct of course.

[Tom Tackett]

Kinda slightly off subject, but guess what huge event will be underway here in North Texas this upcoming weekend, April 12-15??? NASCAR---Texas Motor Speedway (18 miles north of Downtown Fort Worth on I-35W) with 40,000 to 50,000 people in campers and RV's alone with an estimated 180,000 to 200,000 others in for the races. Might need to hope that this possible Friday severe weather event does not materialize. Will consider starting another thread elsewhere by midweek, to cover this aspect, if this forecast scenerio appears to possibly verify. TT in FW. :)

[Stan Rose]

SPC believes the cap will be too strong for anything thu afternoon. WRF soundings for thu do show the cap weakening by mid-day over the panhandles, so im not sure i agree, particualarly given how strong the dynamics are with this system.

[Chris C Sanner]

Thursday looks like it could be a sleeper type of day before the day event. However I'm not sure how much lift we will be getting along the dryline at the key point of the day. Winds are backed though, and the wind fields would support severe weather. I'm favoring SW Oklahoma if the chase comes to fruition. Moisture return is a definite negative for Thursday as I'm not sure it'll be all that deep but the further S you go the better your chances of a better moisture fetch. Either way, looks like Spring is coming back after old man Winter decided to return for a weekend :D

[Doug Mitchell]

I don't know exactly where to post this but I'm going to drive down to Oklahoma on Wednesday night and if anyone in the OKC/Norman area can house me for the night, I'd reimburse you for your troubles. Just PM me.

Otherwise, looking decent for Thursday. NAM/GFS are in general agreement of modest moisture return for NW TX/W OK area ahead of a strong system. I agree with the assessment as a "sleeper" event before a big day on Friday. I think initiation will occur along the TX Panhandle/W OK border...this all, of course, assuming the last few runs are correct (which they won't be). As with March 28th event, this system is probably progged to fast and we could be facing some more Caprock chasing later this week.

[Jeff Snyder]

Interesting possibilities for Thursday as more of a "day before the day" event. With strong flow at all levels, shear profiles will be quite significant. Fortunately, midlevel flow appears as though it'll be very manageable, which should provide for a relatively chaser-friendly storm motion. The primary concern that I have at this time is the quality (magnitude and depth) of moisture. Tonights 0z NAM shows respectable 850mb Tds, indicating that depth may not be a big problem. However, I don't like the meteoric rise in dewpoints in the NAM forecast between 12z and 0z. I assume much of that is attributable to the downward mixing of higher moisture that is advected northward on the LLJ Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but we'll have to wait to see if that really happens. I'm very much not a fan of "last-minute" moisture return, since it seems that few "big" days occur when substantial moisture is not in place the day before the event (3-28-07 being the obvious, most recent example). I can name what seems like a million examples of busts that occurred when the forecast last-minute moisture did not materialize... But hey, it's still April, so I can't be too picky about moisture yet.

The moisture forecasts remind me of the Feb 23rd 2007 "event" in the eastern TX panhandle in that dewpoints, IIRC, were overforecast, and we never saw the last-second advection of 60F tds. In this regard, Friday rings a few more bells than Thursday, since >60F tds should be in place in the warm sector by Friday morning. Alas, that's a different thread.

[Jim Tang]

Interesting possibilities for Thursday as more of a "day before the day" event. With strong flow at all levels, shear profiles will be quite significant. Fortunately, midlevel flow appears as though it'll be very manageable, which should provide for a relatively chaser-friendly storm motion. The primary concern that I have at this time is the quality (magnitude and depth) of moisture. Tonights 0z NAM shows respectable 850mb Tds, indicating that depth may not be a big problem. However, I don't like the meteoric rise in dewpoints in the NAM forecast between 12z and 0z. I assume much of that is attributable to the downward mixing of higher moisture that is advected northward on the LLJ Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but we'll have to wait to see if that really happens. I'm very much not a fan of "last-minute" moisture return, since it seems that few "big" days occur when substantial moisture is not in place the day before the event (3-28-07 being the obvious, most recent example). I can name what seems like a million examples of busts that occurred when the forecast last-minute moisture did not materialize... But hey, it's still April, so I can't be too picky about moisture yet.

The moisture forecasts remind me of the Feb 23rd 2007 "event" in the eastern TX panhandle in that dewpoints, IIRC, were overforecast, and we never saw the last-second advection of 60F tds. In this regard, Friday rings a few more bells than Thursday, since >60F tds should be in place in the warm sector by Friday morning. Alas, that's a different thread.

The models were pretty consistent in developing 50's dewpoints the days before the event on the 23rd, I believe.

Many big outbreaks do occur after last minute rapid moisture advection. Nevertheless I do agree that moisture could be a problem on Thursday. The models vary on the degree of how an initial trough will close off over the Northeast. If that thing bombs like the NAM shows, it will leave behind a continental air mass that will delay moisture return initially, until the LLJ picks up Thursday night.

As of right now, an initial target would be in southern OK near the Red River. I think the cap could remain an issue further south affording a nice tail-end charlie in that area. Great directional and speed shear and steep lapse rates should allow for some nice sups and possible tornadoes.

[Stan Rose]

Well yeah the 00z NAM is very optimisitic, but ill run win its optimisim and take the risk of a bust. Im not gonna ignore parameters that are off the charts from sw KS all the way thru OK (and if you believe the 00z, even E CO) I sure aint sittin home with the dynamics of this storm! If i gotta go south, south ill go.

[Jason Boggs]

With all the talk about moisture return, here is my scoop on things. After this last cold snap that took Td's down to the 30's in the gulf, significant moisture return is already occuring. Td's in the low to mid 40's are in place in the TX panhandle and western OK while Td's are in the low 50's in the Abilene area. A slight cool front on Wed. will damper the moisture return a bit, but the front is not that strong, and moisture will definitely be on the increase when the LLJ gets cranking bigtime early Thursday morning. I think Td's in the mid to upper 50's will be in place when the dryline sets up along the TX-OK border (possibly a little further west) on Thursday. I think SW OK and the Red River area will see Td's in the low 60's.

Good dynamics will be in place with a trough in the west. Good upper level diffluence will aid in lift, along with high lapse rates with the cold, dry air in the upper levels. Speed and directional shear will be quite favorable for rotating storms with surface based storms forming in the richer moisture environment. CAPE values should be over 2000 with the presence of good moisture and adequate daytime heating.

Going out on a limb, a favorable target area in my opinion is going to be in the Sayre, OK area because of the good road network and WIFI access.

[Adam Atkins]

I agree with the previous posters in regards to moisture return mechanisms...due to downward mixing and daytime advection. While this is of concern, I'm optimistic due to the presence of a warm frontal boundary and storm motions perpendicular to the dryline, while nearly parallel to the WF. The greatest theta-e ridge and moisture advection will be east of the dryline boundary meaning there might be significant forcing necessary for initiation off the dryline, because of poor moisture depth. Fortunately, the storm motions will quickly get developing storms off the dryline and into better moisture to the east. (NAM has trended to lower Td's since yesterday's 12 UTC run)

So the #1 issue is initiation potential, while the #2 issue is how plentiful the instability will be east of the dryline. These warm advection "day before the day" events usually have a low stratus deck over the bulk of the warm sector. The presence of the warm front will offeset this concern, slightly, but thin CAPE axis days are historically unsuccessful for me.

Large target area as of now, mesoscale features (mainly thermodynamic) will play a role in defining eventual location to head out.

[Jeff Snyder]

The moisture forecasts remind me of the Feb 23rd 2007 "event" in the eastern TX panhandle in that dewpoints, IIRC, were overforecast, and we never saw the last-second advection of 60F tds. In this regard, Friday rings a few more bells than Thursday, since >60F tds should be in place in the warm sector by Friday morning. Alas, that's a different thread.

The latest NWP guidance now suggests that areas north of I20 will not see Tds >55F, as I had feared. With a slower solution, the 12z NAM makes me a little more optimistic for a northern TX and OK chase on Friday, but it makes me much less optimistic about a Thursday chase... Unfortunately, Friday will see extremely strong 500mb jet streak moving across the risk area (80-90+kts at 500mb!), leading to 50-60kt storm motion per 12z NAM.

Back to Thursday... shear profiles look very good in the warm sector, particularly north of the Red River, and this morning's NAM indicates 65-85kts 0-6km shear (see HERE (http://wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_250M-6KM_SHEAR-VECTOR_60HR.gif)) across the eastern TX panhandle, southwestern Kansas, western OK, and northwestern Texas by evening. Given Tds only in the low-to-mid 50s, CAPE will likely only be 500-1250 j/kg across the area, which, I fear, will be much too weak in face that the very, very strong deep-layer shear. Of course, relatively low CAPE wasn't enought to prevent a violent tornadic supercell on Feb. 28th in southeastern Kansas...

Each new model run should shed more light onto the availability of significant (sufficient) moisture by Thursday afternoon, so I hope that this changes. Given the beating the Gulf has taken the past 10 days, however, I won't be holding my breath. Actually, looking at Td progs, it looks like the biggest problem for moisture return Thursday will be the cold front that will traverse the southern US today and tomorrow. This morning's models suggest that the cold front will hang up in the northern Gulf and extreme southern Texas Wednesday night, with Gulf moisture making headway north of BRO and CRP Thursday morning (way too late it to make it to western OK I fear... I'm not sure about moisture advecting 600-700 miles in 8-10 hours).

[Stan Rose]

Im afraid you're right, Jeff. I haven't thrown in the towel yet, but may have to just hope the system stays slow enough that i can have a shot at friday. On the other hand, the blizzard odds look good, so maybe ill just stay close to home and play in the snow! :)

[cedwards]

I am still holding out hope that a nice photogenic supercell can form in the Texas Panhandle. I am thinking Silverton is a pretty good target area. It is on the northern edge of the pathetic moisture. I don't hold out much hope of seeing any tornadoes, but with storms that rotate like they will tomorrow, they should be VERY photogenic. Now, if I can just star far enough away to capture the entire storm, and stay away from the hail, it should be a good chase.

[Tony Laubach]

Pathetic moisture doesn't really begin to describe tomorrow. Honestly, myself and crew are heading down out of convenience to chase Friday for the weekend getaway for those of us sick of snow here in Denver. Hard to justify making a trip to NE Texas for a single setup, so having this day in between makes us pretend we're not as crazy as we sound! LOL

With that in mind, we're hopeful for a good photogenic storm tomorrow. Shear looks very impressive and oughta make for something interesting. As the night moves on, we'll focus our attention to lightning and get all of that out of our system before the bigger day on Saturday.

We're leaving in a couple hours for Amarillo where we'll base camp for the night and check things out in the morning. I imagine we'll be plenty good on time to get a good night's rest before heading out.

Maybe some panhandle magic will squeeze itself out, and I certainly wouldn't mind a hailstone or two! Honestly, not expecting a whole lot out of tomorrow except to space out the drive for Friday!

[Jason Boggs]

Yea, forget what I said about the moisture return in my previous post. Td in Amarillo is -1 right now. It will be very hard to get some good moisture in the area by the time the dynamics arrive. I do agree that there should be some photogenic LP supercells somewhere in the SE Panhandle tomorrow. I think the tornado potential will be somewhat low due to the lack of good quality moisture. I guess we will wait and see...

[bill mudd]

just rolled in to Tucumcari NM....can't pass up a SLT even if it ends up only being a photo shoot
looks like initiation should start at the NM/TX border but the road networks are pretty weak in this neck of the woods (sage)

not expecting much but would welcome a PM if anyone has the time - would love an ol classic sup shot!!!

....and then there is this weekend:eek:

[Jay McCoy]

I am liking the fact that the models are not handling the moisture return well. The front didnt seem to sweep the moisture clean to the gulf and DP"s are about 15 degrees above progs. DP in Tulia in Tuliua is already 30 and 50s near Austin and San Antonia. With good ESE winds all night and morning I can see 50's easily getting back into the panhandle by 21z. Especially east of I27. Triple point setting up between Clovis and Tuccumcari, NM with front along I-40. Looks like Plainview to Silverton may have some fun late in the day. Oh boy I hope that cop is ready for chasers again!!!!:)

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target:
Matador, TX (45 miles northeast of Lubbock).

Timing:
Storm initiation: 5:30 PM CDT.

Storm mode:
High based supercell storms capable of hail to golf-ball size along with impressive storm structure.

Synopsis:
UA analysis indicated upstream lead shortwave which was accompanied by H5/H7 height falls over NV along with mid-level CAA over SRN CA. Throughout TX, the lower levels of the atmosphere were in extremely dry, owing to northwesterly flow in the wake of the exiting NERN CONUS system.

Discussion:
A narrow axis of modest and weakly capped instability is forecasted to develop in response to the aforementioned shortwave as SFC low pressure rapidly develops over NRN NM while strong SERLY SFC flow transports a shallow moist layer with dewpoints approaching 50F as far N as LBB by 21Z. The most likely location for storm initiation may be near the triple point of an advancing DL and the WF, which will be collocated at SWRN periphery of a mid-level cloud deck along and N of the Red River in association with WAA in the H7 layer. Storms may develop and move E off the Caprock where they would encounter increasingly backed SFC flow along with deeper moisture. Despite limited instability, large hodograph curvatures in the SFC-3km layer along with deep-layer shear approaching 60 kts should assist with storm organization. Additionally, the orientation of the flow at the SFC and aloft should tend to support a discreet storm mode for several hours following initiation. During the evening hours after the BL decouples, a strengthening 50kt LLJ will aid in the maintenance of one or more MCS’s which will move E into KS and OK.

10:30 PM CDT, 04/11/07

- bill

[Tony Laubach]

Chasing out of convenience... a nice luxury to have on days like this. Certainly not expecting a whole lot from today, but the panhandle has been known to surprise...

Excellent shear oughta be in place for any storms that do develop along the dryline later this afternoon. We're hopeful to get a nice LP sup or two with the off-chance of getting under a decent hailer. While we're certainly not expecting it, we're thinking that a slight tornado chance will exist later in the evening as moisture and LLJ increases and storms interact with the front.

So with that, we'll kill off a good part of the day here in Amarillo before heading out on I-27 for someplace between Plainview and Lubbock and chase our way into position for tomorrow's setup.

Its sooo nice to be chasing Texas in April... not Nebraska!

[Bill Tabor]

My thoughts are for daytime chasing (before 0z) the area near the slight will be tough except for elevated supercells with hail and wind. They may be photogenic though. At this moment (20z) I still don't see a lot of surface moisture reaching the area in near the southern Tx panhandle. I see mid to low 40's dewpoints with one reading of 52 at SNK. I don't have a lot of faith in that number though, but perhaps some moisture convergence could be piling there. I see the low to mid 40's extending quite a ways to the south and southeast from there. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates 100mb Mlcape of 250 uncapped near Lamesa.

SPC Mesonalysis - MLCAPE (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s3/mlcp.gif)

My expectation is that moisture will finally become somewhat reasonable after 0z will support some stronger severe possibly tornadic supercell storms between 0z and 6z in an area primarily bounded by Plainview, Hobbs, Odessa, Abilene.

This 0Z action does have me a little worried:
4km WRF precip. valid 00z (http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/tcolc_f24.gif)

However it is WRF based from the 0z run so I don't necessarily have a lot of faith in it.

RUC precip forecast is a little more conservative for 01z:
RUC QPF valid 1z (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc06hr_sfc_prcp.gif)

Earls Tornado forecast is inspiring for those of you wanting to hunt tornadoes in the dark:

Tornado mask valid 00z (http://wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_RUC236_TORNADO-MASK_12HR.gif)

I was strongly considering heading out today to check it but the dismal moisture this morning and early afternoon kept me home. Had I believed there was a stronger chance for daytime tornado chasing I would have gone and also checked out a lot of the night action. For those of you out in the field however; this evening could turn out to be an exceptional time for some good lightning photography or time lapse of very late evening supercells, possibly even a late night backlit tornado for those determined enough IMO. Good luck.

MOD: Edited to remove images in place of links (more friendly to those in the field on limited-bandwidth communications).