"forecast"...4/20 - 4/26.."everywhere"

[SteveCarter]

Mods, feel free to move this thread, but have NO idea where to put it. It appears that the next week may be AWESOME..with two major events taking shape. Even Friday 4/20 could be the initiation. Sat looks great, Sun..? Monday through Thursday another possible fantastic set-up. I didn't want to specify a day, or an exact location because it's just to early. What are your thoughts about the general week ahead, and where? A LOT coming up...it's going to be a chasers dream week. Specificially from the Plains...moving eventually into the Mississippi Valley, perhaps even into the SE...who knows?

[Jeff Snyder]

MOD Note: Since some of these potential events are >7 days out, and the areal designation cannot be definately outlined, a general discussion about next week's potential 'setups' is allowed here. When timing and threat areas become better defined, someone can feel free to start a FCST thread for that particular day and area.

[Brandon Sullivan]

I agree.. I am glad to see it too!! Im ready to go! Just hope things dont change!

[Karen Politte]

In my opinion - Saturday looks less than great (I don't equate bad trajectories with modified air coming at us from the east coast as great). I don't quite know where the models are getting their 65oF+ Tds in KS forecasts from but they worry me and I don't believe them. I don't care whether it's the fabled evapotranspiration or something else - I just don't see it happening.

The past couple of cold air intrusions into the Gulf have been horrific and I think we need to remember that when looking ahead to an upcoming system. The only significant thing I can say about the next 7 days is that they will see us shift back to the desired southwesterly flow and Pacific systems that are so desirable for chasing. The most important thing now is to get some systems that manage to come through the Plains without crashing a cold front down to kingdom-come into the Gulf behind them.

It seems (to me at least) that every single forecast thread nowadays seems to center around the alarmingly common misconception that every trough that swings in from the Rockies is going to bring about "outbreaks" and wipe some cities off the map of some poor state. I wouldn't describe this average-looking mid-April setup as "a chaser's dream".

We are talking about a COUPLE of troughs that are progged to come through and, so far, are still hanging out in dreamland as far as forecasting, meteorological or geographical accuracy is concerned. One of them looks semi-interesting as something to watch evolve while I eat my cereal in the morning, and the other looks like it's digging way the hell south as of today's GFS.

I just wish that that some wouldn't take every system as the next "major" system. Admittedly I don't claim to have been chasing as long as some on here - but I still do recall a time when we could look upon upcoming troughs without calling them "major" or "doomsday-like" or "outbreak-causing" or saying that we'd better start praying for those poor, poor people in the Plains. There is - as far as I can see - absolutely no reason to do so this far out with such a normal-looking spring setup. A bit stormy, yes, a chance of tornadoes, yes. Another May 4th or 8th, 2003? Probably not.

Sigh.

KL

[Terry Tyler]

looks good, but ive seen things switch up at the last minute...

no doubt somethings gonna happen

[SteveCarter]

It seems (to me at least) that every single forecast thread nowadays seems to center around the alarmingly common misconception that every trough that
swings in from the Rockies is going to bring about "outbreaks" and wipe some cities off the map of some poor state. I wouldn't describe this average-looking mid-April setup as "a chaser's dream".

We are talking about a COUPLE of troughs that are progged to come through and, so far, are still hanging out in dreamland as far as forecasting, meteorological or geographical accuracy is concerned. One of them looks semi-interesting as something to watch evolve while I eat my cereal in the morning, and the other looks like it's digging way the hell south as of today's GFS.

I just wish that that some wouldn't take every system as the next "major" system. Admittedly I don't claim to have been chasing as long as some on here - but I still do recall a time when we could look upon upcoming troughs without calling them "major" or "doomsday-like" or "outbreak-causing" or saying that we'd better start praying for those poor, poor people in the Plains. There is - as far as I can see - absolutely no reason to do so this far out with such a normal-looking spring setup. A bit stormy, yes, a chance of tornadoes, yes.




How about "significant", could you live with THAT? And also compared to the nightmare of the last 6 weeks, yes, this is a DREAM. This system coming into the Plains Fri-Sun?...could be, might be, a BIG one....Not every trough that comes through IS referred to as "doomsday"or whatever. ie...tomorrow. The SPC says...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT EVENT DAY 5. Day FIVE...significant from the SPC warrants a LOT of watching, and YES...it could be a MAJOR outbreak. If I thought it was definate, it would be posted in the FCST thread, but this thread is posted for discussion, which is what you, and others, are doing. Remember, this is STORMTRACK...for CHASERS, who relish the thought of severe weather, and naturally hope for the best possible set-up. As far as the actual forecast goes for this time period.....models are indicating anything from a "normal" April weather pattern, (which usually means a few tornadoes), up to a widespread significant severe OUTBREAK. So, while some may take the road less travelled, and sigh at the impending POSSIBILITIES, others will run with the better than 50-50 chance that they, and I...will be chasing this period from 4/20 - 4/26.

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

It seems with every run the GFS adds another day on to the list with a potential setup. It will be interesting to see which days and how many of them produce anything. Atleast there is not as much fluxuation with the track of the storms on the GFS as there was leading up to the storm last week.

[Shane Adams]

The common thought that every system will be the next outbreak is no different than the common thought that every system will be a letdown....it's simply a reflection of personality.....the glass is half empty or half full. If I cared for forecasting I'd interject my opinions as well, but because I don't, I choose to stay on the sidelines until the reality of the situation (will it or won't it actually happen) becomes clear.....then I'll throw my 2 cents in.

I consider myself a bit of an expert on ST forecast threads because I've read a zillion of them....and I know what the opinions will be based on the name at the top of the post....it's cool because that shows who's who as far as general outlook...pessimist, optimist, realist. All are fascinating to observe...and easily tolerated with a bit of understanding.

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Someone always has to crap in your frosted flakes. lol
This upcoming next week and a half look nice. Nobody is forecasting armageddon but jsut mentioning some good old time chasing fun. It will always boil down to one thing.....we can write forecast thread after forecast thread and get all fancy with the words but......Until the morning of an event happens.....we really dont know jack! and even then we dont know much. Even if you really think you do.
Id be focused Friday in the Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles
Saturday accross the Southern Central Plains I.E. Oklahoma North Texas (perhaps central Texas) Kansas and even Southern Nebraska. Sunday may be more towards the trees of Mizzou Iowa Arkansas. Then the next system tries to get back moisture and relaod and then who knows?
In my opinion (which means nothng) If you dont like or disagree about why a people are cominicating in a a certan thread.....then leave out your 2 cents as they probably are biased for whatever reason. When the majority see something on the Horizon.....SOMETHING is gonna happen.....and no it may very well not turn out to be an "outbreak" but its spring...and storms moving into even modest moisture can do some amazing things. Also my idea of an "outbreak" may be different from what yours is.....some say an outbreak is a tornado outbreak....some say its numerous severe hail and or wind reports.....even flash flooding can be added to that....its all what your looking for and how you look at it.
Ill be chasing this weekend. Those who think the system isnt that great can sit home and cry to momma. :-p Ill be watching my storms do what they always do....amaze me...be it tornado lightning winds rain or clouds.
Enjoy the WEATHER....not just your expectations of tornadoes.
Its April! Lets enjoy it and forecast and get into discussing our passion and work on our own forecasts....not telling other people they are wrong.....if they are wrong they will learn from theri mistake and become a better chaser for it.
Sometimes I wonder if there are alot of people who downplay others forecasts just due to the fact they are bitter about not chasing themselves? Maybe I am the only one who sees this? Maybe im jsut having a bad hair day or something. Such as the thread asking how people chase....and making remarks about them "skipping class" or how they get off work or make their money to chase so much.......WHO CARES! ITS NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS. Worry about how you can get yourself out in the field and stop wasting your time being backhanded and making sny remarks about others chase budgets of time and money.
Send you comments and hate mail to shadow123@hotmail.com Altho I have and wont mention any names.:-p
It still amazes me how people I know who are over 30 act like they are about 8. "My toy is better than your!" "Why does your daddy make less money?" " " I dont see what possibly could be so exciting about this weekend....what model are YOU looking at?" and we wonder why people have low self esteem problems.
Im not saying dont post your own forecast even if its a complete 180 of what others are posting....and you think they are wrong....jsut post your own forecast and leave other forecasts alone. If ya want to agree with them thats great.....but dont try to make someone else forecast seem like they are totally out of this planet and on Mars.
This kinda crap has been on forums for years and IMO a few new rules on tearing down peoples personal ideas should be added to the ST forums list of dos and donts. I can see why ALOT of members read ST everyday.....and never post a thing.....even I post as little as I can...usually a quick idea forecast the day before or of the event and my report. In the past anything else I posted was analyzed reanalyzed and it jsut became not worth it.
I may jsut be having a bad day is all maybe I need to quite watching all the depressing news..
This weekend should be a blast and alot of chasers will be out their "not having to skip class" and using their "less than idea" forecasts" to get some amazing images for those to enjoy who cant be out chasing. Instead of loathing them for getting to do it....be glad they give you the priveledge of seeing their photos at all.

[Jeff Snyder]

Let's keep this thread on-topic. Personal attacks, implied or otherwise, are not allowed.

If you have a problem with the comments of another, please use the appropriate means (e.g. Private Message if you don't think others will benefit from your comments) and appropriate language. Lambasting others is not an effective why through which to make your point. Yes, both sides of the issue (which I believe to be off-topic, by the way) are guilty of this, though one side seemed to take a more neutral, tactful approach.

Again, don't get all up in arms about another's comments. If you have a personal bone to pick, don't post in the public forums. No need to get offended by differing opinions. I don't know why we've seen a few threads in the past couple of days which which people seemed to get offended and reacted in a testy, temperamental way.

With that, all further discussion must remain focused on this extended forecast -- period.

[Dan Robinson]

I'm still holding on to my "wait for May" approach to 2007. The upcoming system looks interesting, but not like a "I-have-to-be-there" event to me. The trough moving in isn't too impressive IMO (not a May 8-10 2003 blockbuster), moisture return is still a concern, and we're still in fast storm motion season.

The trough does start showing a nicer negative tilt as it moves east of the Mississippi. Now that might be something I would bite on, as it's a day's drive round-trip, not 3.

Shane's right, every poster has their own perspective. I'm more cautious about jumping on a setup because I've got a +1,000 mile drive to the target. That reflects in my pessimism and optimism on a setup. For me to make that drive, it really has to be a great setup with few cons. This one has too many for me. If I lived in the TX panhandle or OK right now, I'd probably sound a little different.

Just like March 28, there may be tornadoes, but I'm not going to worry about missing them. I want the slow-movers of May and June.

[Reed Timmer]

If we have 57+ dewpoints, Saturday will be the apocalypse. Write it down.

If dewpoints reach the low 60s, we'll have a violent needle with two wedges rotating around it.

[Brian Stertz]

Chaser optimism or pessimism...this is what leaves some watching tubes while others are home watching the tube, mowing the lawn, or plopped down in front of their latest radars going "WTF" ??!! As we get later into spring, the chances for more chaseable events increases, and certainly in my opinion we are about to pass beyond the April 20th date. This is when I normally consider crossing the chase gateway between scepticism and get your butt out the door and chase !! Saturday represents one of those challenging times when it comes down to do you believe the models. I believe as decently consistent this has been in showing that a strong wave was moving towards SW Kansas and Texas Panhandle. Who cares if it is a F1 cone or a brush hog F5 with the look that the end of the world is near...outbreak or a more scattered supercell case ? Just enjoy the forecast, the beauty of storms, and learn by doing. I still have a self inflicted bootprint for not having "chaser flu" on 3/28 by the way. :mad:

[Ray Walker]

To me this is the fun part of chasing, no one can forcast weather. All we can do is use the tools given to us and predect (guess in a way) about what we think will happen. This is very evedent in the SPC forcast as every forcaster has a different opinion. Forcasting weather is a science and if we could forcast weather then we all would be seeing tornadoes when they occur and sitting at home when tornadoes would not be touching down. We all are different and have different opinions on setups and what they will produce or not produce. But the truth is we just dont know what will happen. Take may-3-99 for example. However I just know that I am out whenever I can be because I love weather and I have seen tornadoes occur in conditions no one would have ever dreamed of.
But anyway back on subject. I do think that we are looking at a very active period setting up. Yes there will more than likely be a pretty big outbreak somewere, sometime before April is up. But know one knows for sure. I am thinking that Saturday and then again tuesday of next week will be big severe weather outbreaks,(not nessasaraly tornado outbreaks) but severe weather defanatly. All I know is Unless these systems just dissapear on the next model run then I am chasing. Tornadoes or not.

[SteveCarter]

The fact that this is almost May, also makes ME get more interested than perhaps Feb. This time of year, things kick off SO easy sometimes, and looking at the past "Mays'....I'm afraid to keep waiting for the "big" one. The second round next tuesday/wednesday seems like it may go a lot further south, and if that happens, then TN/KY/MS/AL may be in for a long couple of days. To me....I don't need the F-5 Kansas tube either...give me the southern states, and I'll be happy. Some of the worst outbreaks in the last few years have been in Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and other states that a lot of chasers won't chase. I'm pretty stoked about these next 4-9 days...a LOT can happen, but....time will tell.

[Shane Adams]

I loathe forecasting, but it's a neccesary evil if you're to at least have a shot at consistent success. It all comes down to "how bad do you wanna chase?" On March 28, I didn't want it that bad....and paid the price....which sent me into a fury and made me wake up, pull my head outta my ass, and realize "hey dude, you're Shane Adams....you chase....that's what you do."

I've driven 1000 miles and seen nothing....and I've sat on my ass and watched radars filled with supercells I could've been under....I'll take the former.

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Chasing storms and tornadoes as well as forecasting the weather is Just like Playing Chess. Its just that your opponent is Mother Nature......and she is ALOT better chess player than you are. ;-)

[Matt Chatelain]

Yeah, even if these may not be insane huge outbreaks, it does look like we are in for a period of chasing, which always gets me excited. I like the fact that we may get a few more oppritunities than just one. And Reed I believe the needle between two wedges will be so violent that it will make a high pitched drilling sound.

[Jason Boggs]

I wil definitely be out on Saturday. Dewpoints don't look extremely impressive but they will be in the upper 50's in the eastern TX panhandle. South TX has Td in the mid 60's now so the gulf is starting to open up for business again. Remember the wedges and cones on the 28th? Dewpoints were in the upper 50's that day so I'm not worried about moisture for this next event. No, I'm not saying that Sat. will be another March 28th but it does have potential.

I think if upper 50's dewpoints transpire on Saturday, there will absolutely be a tornado watch issued in the eastern panhandle. Great speed and directional shear will result in rotating updrafts. I'm betting a moderate risk will be issued for the eastern TX panhandle and western OK. I will chase no matter what. When I'm out I never give up because as my friend Dan Skoff once said, "the chase isn't over until the head hits the pillow".

[Dan Robinson]

I like the second trough coming in on Tuesday per the 00z GFS run, though it may end up too far south. Between the two systems, if they can offer 3 or 4 decent chase days, I may break my no-April trip philosophy.

[Ray Walker]

Ya, chasing isnt a hobby, a job, or a thrill seeking adrenaline rush. Not for me anyways it is a passion. You drive thousands of miles to see an outbreak or just a good supercell and you end up in nothing more than rain or blue skies. But if you are persistent and keep it up the one chase out of the year that produces a tornado or that one intense supercell is worth all the other chases combined. In my opinion that is why it isnt a hobby, or a job it is a passion for most of us. Now it is a hobby for others but for the Jim leonards, Shane adams, Reed Timmers, Gene Rhodens, Tony labachs, ( sorry if i spelled that wrong) Verne Carlsons, and I could go on and on and on and on. But for these kinds of chasers it is a passion and that is why they see tornadoes and the massive supercells that plague the plains year after year. You have to bust to win.


But anyways I am REALLY likeing the Tuesday setup for next week. If it all comes together just right I could see some ugly storms in Oklahoma 4/24/07.

[SteveCarter]

This Saturday event continues to look pretty impressive. I'm thinking Saturday may be about it tho, and since I'm in SC, i may have to let this one slide by. HOWEVER.......tuesday - thursday? HMMMMMM. This one may warrant the annual long 3,000+ drive and so forth. Still so dadgum far out tho!! What I'm HOPING for is a slower-moving sustem that spins across the lower Mississippi Valley into s/IN - e/Tn areas. This would give me about 2-3 days of chasing, and bring it closer to home. Having said all that, Saturday still looks like a great chase day! I'm not looking for an "outbreak", I'm looking for a few good CHASEABLE tubes. SPC....THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SEVERE EVENT WILL INDEED OCCUR SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6-8 TIME FRAME OVER THE SRN PLAINS. (M-W)

[Mike Hollingshead]

I think every day with a cloud growing vertically, from here on out the rest of the year, will be HUGE. I think we now have enough chasers willing better outcomes, that the lord will answer these prayers, giving us massive tornadoes all the time. I'd just like to thank everyone for their wills.

[Tony Laubach]

Let them be with their wills! They'll all get bored and stop chasing and clear the highways so those of us who just enjoy being out in the weather can roam without the circus!

My two days of interest; Saturday and Tuesday... would like to see Tues become Mon in the interest of scheduling, but I'm good either way!

[Jay McCoy]

Same here Tony. I have Emergency Service training Tuesday evening so I would much rather it be Monday but will take what I am given. Saturday still looks like a very good day along the dryline. Please let all the doubters stay home so we can have some more room. With it being a weekend though I expect the usual zoo. I dont see much happening thursday or Friday except maybe an elevated hailer if that.

As for long term the GFS can barely get it close within 5 days.. anything past that is pure guesswork.

[Reed Timmer]

I've never had any issues with the zoo...it usually thins out within a half mile of the hose!

Saturday and Tuesday look huge...I'd prefer the slightly higher bases of Saturday as the tornadoes are often more photogenic. Hopefully we can get at Tds of at least 55 so we don't waste the INCREDIBLE shear.

[Mikey Gribble]

I don't see too many people on here driving five hours or more to chase when there isn't a chance at tornadoes. IMO part of being a good chaser/forecaster is knowing when NOT to chase.
I am still getting 20,000 miles a year, just as many tornadoes as the next guy, and burnt out by the end of season, so as far as I'm concerned I am doing plenty of chasing.

[Shane Adams]

I like Saturday simply because so many people have been worrying themselves to death about it. IMO the systems that seem like "locks" are usually the letdowns.....while these "well it looks good except for..." type days are usually the ones where I'm smiling ear to ear around sunset. But right now I'm far more intrigued by Friday....nothing I like better than getting the tube before the tubes.

[Reed Timmer]

If this trend continues we may be in New Mexico again on Saturday.

I like Friday as well...it looks like a LLJ magic type day.

[SteveCarter]

I couldn't agree more with what most of you said.....Let the skeptics stay home and then WISH they would have chased. Unfortunately for me, South Carolina is just to far away to chase ONE day, when Tuesday and Wednesday may BOTH be pretty good, so I'm banking on THAT system. Tuesday just seems like a better chance, but if not for the 14 hour (one way) drive to the western Plains, I'd still be on Saturdays chase. If I waited until the "perfect" set-up, I'd be sitting in my armchair ALL seaon, and that's not what a chaser does. BTW....to ME, a storm chaser chases STORMS...don't need a tube to have a great time here! Any thoughts into WHERE the sfc low will go Tues - Thur? It looks like it may be a closed L, so hopefully the thing will sit and spin it's magic for more than one day. You all that chase Saturday...good luck...think you'll be glad you chased! wish I was out there with ya, and who knows, maybe I'll get a wild hair up my a$$, and see ya anyways! lol

[John MacKay]

I still don't know which way I should take (NM and TX panhandle or KS/CO).

Looking at the driving time from Denver to the panhandle, I'm going with flying to Denver rather than Albuquerque (Denver would be cheaper minus the gas difference). It also will give me more options, as I'd rather go to KS (my former home state of 24 years).

With the last GFS and NAM runs, it looks like I won't have to drive far from either one. The question to be resolved will be how sharp the dryline is IMO, and that won't be known for another day of two. That would be my key to where I should be, as a 30 to 40 degree dewpoint difference will lead to explosive development in the forecasted environment for Saturday. I'll worry about LCLs the day of, as we won't have any accurate handle on that until Friday or early Saturday (thanks to the unknown of modified continental moisture vs. Gulf moisture). It's a 50/50 event on this being a big tornado producer or being a nice severe weather event with minimal tornadoes.

My goal is to see a supercell, and anything else I will enjoy (hopefully, that elusive tornado and not the gorilla hail). I'm getting thunderstorm deprived here, so expectations are low. I should see a line of thunderstorms at least on the way back to Denver (or sitting somewhere for the night).

[Marko Korosec]

TX/OK Panhandle into western KS looks pretty good on the latest 06z GFS run, thats the place I'd love to be on Saturday. And Friday looks good for w KS as well. Tds should be easily above 55F.

Ah wish I was there already...believe me, this is killing time waiting for my departure in two weeks and watching juicy maps for the Plains from home.

[SteveCarter]

next week......there is a lot to think about. This system seems to be a closed L, and should be a LOT better, and easier to chase. Moisture definately not a problem, and it APPEARS that this could be a rather deep low, so...with all that in mind, thinking perhaps cOK Tuesday, maybe AR/LA border Wed, and scAL Thu, then home to South Carolina. The thing(s) that stands out with this system is the MUCH slower movement than previous systems, the abundant WARM MOISTURE, and the vertical shear forecast for this. Not saying this will be a "super outbreak", but it will be one of the best shots so far this year..IMHO.