Andrea has formed!

[rdale]

WTNT31 KNHC 091443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES
...240 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Jesse V. Bass III]

pretty crazy to have it in may... this could be a sign of things to come.. or it could go the other way too.. but all indications right now is it will be busy!!

I was on the outer banks on sunday after it had moved through and skies had pretty much cleared.. i had a wind gust to 60mph on the bonner bridge in the evening.. sand blowing everwhere... here is a link to the video


http://www.vastormphoto.com/MyVideos/may62007hatterasweb.wmv

[J Kinkaid]

hopefully we can get this thing across FL and into the GOM so we can put out the fires and bring some much needed rain to the central gulfcoast.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_01.gif

[richhorodner]

What a waste of a good and pretty name; unless it turns totally tropical. Andrea could be Andrew's sister; and have long, flowing pitch black hair. One example of the con side of why naming these sub-terranian storms is not a good idea.

There is no corellation between May tropical storms and total storms for the upcoming season; one good reason being these May developments are almost always the result of baroclinic cut-offs; not of tropical origin. In this case, so far it has not transformed to a tropical system yet; and woudn't have been named before several years ago, when naming these things for public awareness reasons started.

One would have to look back through a century or more of daily weather maps to find the sub-tropical storms and cut off cold lows in May (or any other time) to try and develop some season-indicating corellation.
But since there is no corellation with true named tropical storms in May as the criteria, there is likely also no corellation with sub-tropicals.

It's like watching Dirk Nowitski hit 52 straight long jumpers in practice; but when the playoff game starts can't hit the barn door.

Hopefully, like Kinkaid mentions it will put out some fires; if not directly, from increased instability afternoon CBs that could arise from the left over mid level trough hanging over the hot Florida peninsula. The sky has been smokey here in east-central Florida most of the day.

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Even worse, the NHC started naming subtropical systems.

Insurance policies have a much higher insurance deductible for hurricanes (well, tropical cyclones).

My insurance policy is $1,000 deductible for wind damage, but if the wind damage is caused by a "storm with a name" (yup - that's what my policy says) ... Then it's $4,000.

So, a few years ago, if "Andrea" (or "unamed system" back then) knocked over a tree in Jacksonville and did $20,000 to a roof, the victim would pay $1,000, and the insurance would pay the rest ($19,000).

The SAME storm and damage TODAY, oops ... Dig deeper and pull up $4,000 ;-(

Politix ... Gotta love it!

[Marcus Opitz]

Some policies only apply the "hurricane deductible" only if there is a hurricane warning declared "x" amount of hours prior to landfall....I worked a claim that that was caused by a named tropical storm at the time of landfall only to have it upgraded to a hurricane after further analysis...needless to say, the non-hurricane deductible applied as a hurricane warning was not in effect at the time of loss. I was glad the lower deductible applied...It all depends on the policy...I hear Some states and/or insurance companies are using a 5% hurricane deductible,,ouch..

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

NHC says that Andrea has weakened to a subtropical depression. My comment based on forecasts in Advisory is: I have observed middle latitude cyclones what were worse than this.

[J Kinkaid]

Deep convection fireing now over the center ! She's looking like she's a real fighter

The 00Z model run of the NOGAPS still had something, at some level, moving into the GOM.

[J Kinkaid]

000
WONT41 KNHC 111856
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT IT LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Menno van der Haven]

Hmmm, I followed that system on the maps the last couple of days' and to me it only seems a cold upper low system over relatively warm waters.
Does Andrea really have (had) tropical characteristics? Normally tropical systems are initiated near the ITCZ and follow a course from east to west whilst developing. This time it obviously was not the case.

[richhorodner]

Does Andrea really have (had) tropical characteristics? Normally tropical systems are initiated near the ITCZ and follow a course from east to west whilst developing. This time it obviously was not the case.
They named Andrea because the hurricane hunter a couple of days ago found a rather warm profile in the eastern semicircle of the surface/mid level low. NHC Discussion for the first advisory read:

<<<<<THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES REVEAL A RATHER FLAT
THERMAL CROSS-SECTION...NOT INDICATING A DISCERNIBLE WARM OR COLD
CORE AT ANY VERTICAL LEVEL. THE WIND PROFILES...HOWEVER...SHOW
WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION
AND DECREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF. GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...BUT PRIMARILY IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT HINT OF UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW WHICH WAS COMPLETELY ABSENT YESTERDAY.>>>>>

It would not have received a name several years ago, because they weren't giving names to sub-tropical systems (I call them sub-terranian.) It also would not have gotten a name if the recon. didn't fly into it on that day because satellite alone did not indicate for sure any part of the "system" was warm at all.

But, sometimes, cold lows do break off from the main flow, and gradually become totally tropical. I would say 10-15% of all Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes form in this manner.

Here is one prime example, Diana, 1984:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1984/DIANA/track_s.gif

This hurricane reached a maximum intensity of 135 mph sustained winds when it was just east of the Carolinas. Not like the current "Andrea", the water temperatures under it from the beginning were well over 80 degrees F. (it was September.)

Note in the advisory table below the intensity evolution.

3 28.50 -79.20 09/09/00Z 45 1004 TROPICAL STORM
4 28.60 -79.70 09/09/06Z 50 1002 TROPICAL STORM
5 29.00 -79.90 09/09/12Z 55 1000 TROPICAL STORM
6 29.40 -80.10 09/09/18Z 60 995 TROPICAL STORM
7 29.70 -80.40 09/10/00Z 60 994 TROPICAL STORM
8 30.10 -80.30 09/10/06Z 60 995 TROPICAL STORM
9 30.50 -80.00 09/10/12Z 65 991 HURRICANE-1
10 30.80 -79.60 09/10/18Z 70 986 HURRICANE-1
11 31.30 -79.10 09/11/00Z 80 980 HURRICANE-1
12 31.80 -78.70 09/11/06Z 85 973 HURRICANE-2
13 32.60 -78.40 09/11/12Z 100 960 HURRICANE-3
14 33.40 -78.00 09/11/18Z 110 952 HURRICANE-3
15 33.90 -77.70 09/12/00Z 115 949 HURRICANE-4


Note on advisory 15 it was a cat#4, with max winds of 115 KNTS (135 mph or so.)

I personally left Miami one day to intercept a tropical storm Diana in N. Central Florida. Because it was weak and only a 3 hr. drive, I just wore my shorts, and took no change of clothes and other gear. Also brought my dog along for the ride; expecting to be back home in 12 hours or so. Diana never made shore there, drifted NNE at 5-7 mph for several days, intensified gradually to a Cat #4 as it did a clockwise loop east of Wilmington, NC. Four days later it came ashore, weakening, at Holden Beach, NC, where I snuck onto the barrier island and filmed it coming in.

Sleeping in the car for four days, my dog Hurricane threatened to bite me several times, and got pissed that a human could get so raunchy from living in a car for so long.