South Florida Hurricane Brewing for 5/30-6/2

[HAltschule]

Glancing at the extended range models revealed a rather surprisingly intense low pressure center (likely tropical) moving from the Caribbean to near Key West and Miami, FL in another week and a half. This same tropical system brushes the North Carolina coastline and give Cape Cod, MA a dangerous brush with wind and rain also. The GFS model then stalls the system out, reverses it on a westward track and brings it inland somewhere between CT/RI/Long Island, NY. (Wow...this could really be interesting IF it pans out).

While I know it is very difficult to determine the reality of such a system so far out...it will certainly be something to watch in the models. If it pans out, it could be a very active season indeed.

PS: Did Joe Bastardi predict a hurricane over Miami next week in his outlook from 2005? It wouldn't surprise me since he likes to issue site specific hurricane forecasts for such an irresponsible long range out.

[rdale]

GFS is showing high pressure over that area, are you sure you are looking at the right maps? Looks like a good sevwx setup over the central plains, not quite tropical...

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/mslp_f264_usbg.gif

[HAltschule]

Yes. I just looked at it again and the 06z run from this morning shows a moster storm off the Florida coast.

Check it out: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_240.shtml

Unless something funky is going on, check out the entire 6z suite for the time period above. It clearly shows the area in question moving from FL up to Southern New England.

Have a look and let me know.

[rdale]

I see now - I never look at op GFS > 168 hours, always ensemble. Given that the ENS MEAN doesn't even try to show anything there, the ECMWF shows nothing, and the GFS has a known bug of overdeveloping tropical systems, I can't be too concerned...

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/PN_GZ_240_0500.html

[HAltschule]

FWIW, there have been 7 back to back runs of the operational GFS that show some sort of low/poss. tropical development over South Florida region in the 200-280 hour range. Interesting...

[rdale]

Still - we're looking at a model that has a known error in developing tropical lows at long range. No other model supports it, even its own ensembles. ECMWF continues to hold high pressure over FL.

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/PN_GZ_216_0500.html

[HAltschule]

Agreed. But it's fun to watch the models...forgetting for a minute that there are those errors. Now, it would be something if the other models and ensembles came around to the ops GFS scenario. ;)

[Justin E. Reed]

All I'm goin to say is if it happens, kick this town's arse. Jacksonvile is wayyyyyyyy over due for a hurricane, its only been what, 40 something years. Plus, I'd sit right here and have to take the observations.:cool:

[HAltschule]

Gee...I thought you would have been more excited about the RAIN from it to quench some of those wild fires. :)

[Justin E. Reed]

Well speaking of tropical and rain, later next week, models show an incredible amount of tropical moisture coming up from Ctrl America, straight for Florida. Oppressivly humid tropical air, Florida sunshine and sea breezes, you can fill in the blanks. BIG RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR WHOLE STATE, and possibly much of the South

[HAltschule]

Me thinks this is the same system that I have been talking about in this thread. However, the operational GFS now indicates more of a hybrid low coming up the coast rather than tropical. But that can change easily. Eith way, it would mean big, much neede rains for FL indeed.

[HAltschule]

If you look at the date of my original post (9-10 days ago...May 21st), you will come to be surprised that the Operational GFS may have been "right on" in developing a subtropical/hybrid or tropical system so far in advance. This morning's NAM and GFS both still show subtropical/hybrid development in the Gulf of Mexico to East Coast of Florida over the next day or two.

Assuming that something does develop (based on model consensus), it is interesting to note that no model glitch/tropical bias in the GFS occurred 7-10 days ago. That said, I am fairly impressed with the accuracy of depicting a significant low pressure system 10 days out.

Perhaps this post is a few days early (and I might kick myself if nothing happens), but I thought it was interesting to point out that the Operational GFS looks like it may have outshined the ensembles on this one??!!

[Derrick Herndon]

If you look at the date of my original post (9-10 days ago...May 21st), you will come to be surprised that the Operational GFS may have been "right on" in developing a subtropical/hybrid or tropical system so far in advance. This morning's NAM and GFS both still show subtropical/hybrid development in the Gulf of Mexico to East Coast of Florida over the next day or two.

Assuming that something does develop (based on model consensus), it is interesting to note that no model glitch/tropical bias in the GFS occurred 7-10 days ago. That said, I am fairly impressed with the accuracy of depicting a significant low pressure system 10 days out.

Perhaps this post is a few days early (and I might kick myself if nothing happens), but I thought it was interesting to point out that the Operational GFS looks like it may have outshined the ensembles on this one??!!

There appears to be a weak circulation in the NW Carib now so at least there is some sort of exisiting disturbance. Another interesting aspect of the forecasts is the amount of low-level shear that develops over FL, especially in the WRF which deepens the low more than the other models. This could lead to a significant tornado threat for FL if the forecasts verify. In fact that threat is probably more dangerous than any TC that might develop since the strong u/l shear is likely to suppress significant intensification.

[HAltschule]

As of 6pm EDT on Wednesday, I do see a weak, low level circulation off the coast of western Cuba but there is no significant convection associated with it. Many models still develop this system and NWS Offices across the Northeastern U.S. are starting to pay clsoer attention to the storm potential in their discussions also.

[Justin E. Reed]

BRING IT ON MFer! We need the rain, heck, we want 8 inches in one day, then 15 total ffrom this, lord knows that wont happen, but theres a good shot of at least a few inches here in JAX.

[J Kinkaid]

Hybrid systems down there usually are not big rain makers . I do expect this to to listed as an invest today and head for south fl this weekened.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ft.html

[cdcollura]

Works for me ... I will be in FL this weekend to check house and family ;-)

Maybe a tropical cyclone chase my be on order - That'll be cool!

[J Kinkaid]

Invest 92L now and starting to look more like a tropical system :)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[HAltschule]

GEM, GFS and GFDL all bring this developing system near or north of Tampa, FL and then over the Jacksonville, FL area to along the East and Northeast Coasts by Saturday. The GFDL has it at Tropical Storm wind strength (but this could be Extratropical or Hybrid gusts too).

Will be interesting to watch. Hopefully we'll get a nice Tropical Storm thats a heavy rain producer so it can go over the very dry areas of FL and GA.

[Justin E. Reed]

Hurricane Hunter to visit this lil guy tomorrow to determine whether we have our first baby boy of the year. Maybe Barry will be born tomorrow, sure looks interesting. All signs show several inches of rain over much of the state, including Jacksonville, Tampa-St. Petersburg, Orlando, WPB, FTL and Miami. The heaviest looks to fall over the Okeechobee Basin, ironically a few days after hitting record low today of 8.94 ft.!

[J Kinkaid]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

[HAltschule]

At 3pm EDT on Friday 6/1, visible satellite loops in the area show a very well defined closed circulation. The Southern half of the circulation is relatively free of convection so the system is not well organized tropically right now. Thats not to say a TD won't be issued because it may.

Model Scorecard Check:

Operational GFS: 1
Long range Ensembles from 10 days ago: 0

[cdcollura]

Models doin' pretty good this year ;-)