Absolutely INSANE GFS Run

[Doug Mitchell]

This is probably a once in a lifetime run for a model that doesn't have a major glitch in it...tonights 0z run produced some monster...and I mean MONSTER numbers for next Wednesday in Nebraska, if these even half way verify, we could be in a for a very long long day.

Here are the main pictures...

0-1km Helicity (Yes, 0-1(!)km NOT 0-3km)
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v144/mitch445/insaneday/CENTRAL_GFS_0-1KM_SRH_96HR.gif

0-1km EHI
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v144/mitch445/insaneday/CENTRAL_GFS_0-1KM_EHI_96HR.gif

Sfc CAPE
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v144/mitch445/insaneday/CENTRAL_GFS_ATMOS_CAPE_96HR.gif

STP (Significant Tornado Potential) - For reference, NAM had STP progged for around 12 for the Greensburg event
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v144/mitch445/insaneday/CENTRAL_GFS_ATMOS_STP_96HR.gif

[APritchard]

Mike, you got any room at your place for an ole Illinois buddy?

[Bart_Comstock]

-cough cough- gee I feel really ill, guess I'll have to call in sick to work for a few days. :P

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

CAPE over 5000 J/kg? That's insane indeed. I smell another Greensburg...

[rdale]

I smell another Greensburg...

That smell is not outbreak - that smell is computer output at 4 days away...

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Looks like a 3-4 day long "spot" chase is on the order this week (June 6-9) for me.

May be going out there late tuesday till weekend if things with this trough keep panning out the way they appear to be...

[Shane Adams]

I agree it looks insane, and I attribute the majority of that insanity to the advertised cap. If that thing is still showing up in another day, I might start believing it.

[Terry Tyler]

that looks sick...i agree with shane, though...give it another day...

[Brett Adair]

Looks to sick to be true.....however, we all know that will change some but it is quite alarming to see that. As Rdale said though it's still 4 days away.

[Chris Wilburn]

Definitely looks too good to be true, but still early of course. This mornings NAM run is in and all I have to say is WOW! I have been forecasting for only a couple years now and have never seen data it is spitting out. With that said there continues to be a stout CAP shown so no need to get too excited yet.

977mb surface low http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta84hr_sfc_mslp.gif

50-60kt 850mb flow http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta84hr_850_wnd.gif

CAPE http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta84hr_sfc_cape.gif

Td's http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta84hr_sfc_dewp.gif

Just thought I would post those images to go along with what started the thread as they are pretty insane if you ask me. It may be all for not, but nice to look at regardless

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, the GFS has been pretty consistent in showing a relatively "insane" system (again, relatively speaking)... timing and location differences exist as usual, but looks like something big is in the cards.

Disclaimer: Yes, I know this isn't an ensemble analysis. Yes, I know it's a few days out. Yes, I know things are subject to change. Yes, I know there are more models than just the GFS. Yes, it is exciting to look at the models even if they aren't close to verification.

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

That smell is not outbreak - that smell is computer output at 4 days away...

Yeah. I forgot to add "If that thing verifies, then I smell..." to my post...

Well, let's see how things turn out.

[Joel Wright]

Wow, those parameters all look very interesting.

As far as that 977mb cyclone... didn't I read on here awhile back that very deep low pressure systems are less desirable than say one closer to 990mb?

Just thought I'd throw that out there.:-p

[mark humpage]

This puts me in a tad of a dilemma. Up until the 06z run I was ready to book my UK Tue flights ready for this. However GFS now has a great looking feature progd for the 11th onwards. I have a run or two before I need to make a decision as I cannot stay for both.

Mark

[Scott Olson]

This event is only four days away, as such we ask that any forecasts or analysis of the upcoming event take place in the FCST thread. If you wish to further discuss arrangements and chase plans that is okay.

[Marko Korosec]

I agree with some of you above... those maps for June 6th are just SICK!:eek: I am just looking at latest WRF 12z which confirms incredible setup for ne NE into se SD...man, it makes me thinking to book a flight and return to the Plains for few days.

[Ryan McGinnis]

I have Wednesday firmly on my "willing to take a day off if the setup is even a remote cousin of the current model run" calendar. I'm trying not to get too excited because it's a few days out and I've been burned by the "believe what the models tell you three days out" game before, but damn, that would be a nice setup in my back yard.

[Daniel Christianson]

As they say from that 70's show...burn burn burn burn lol... i hope this pan's out i will really keep an eye on this, i have wed off so works out for me but im almost betting there will be some changes in the next few days.....

[Shane Adams]

I just wanted to clarify that I meant if the strong capping inversion (which is supposed to ruin the day Wed) is still there in another day, I'll start believing it. As it is, I'm keeping Wednesday as my first "take off" day from work for what looks to be a busy weekend. Until those h7 and h85 temps recede a bit and precip starts showing up, I'm more intrigued by Fri-Sat.

[Justin E. Reed]

I can't say too much because it's classified computers and systems. The cap will be quite strong thru much of the day, but the models we run in the military, at least here in JAX, show it erroding by mid afternoon with incredible convective activiy with tops possibly as high as 60,000ft! Shear profiles are very similar to the day Greensburg was pummeled and this could become a very interesting day to say the least. I have a good friend on leave in his hometown of Harlington, NB and I'll keep him abreast and he'll keep me informed on conditions he will witness. If I could flip the chaser switch, I'd press the green button as good to go!

[Chris Hayes]

The 12z run of the ETA had the cap eroding over parts of NE Nebraska and SE SD by 00z. Hopefully this solution will pan out :)

[Jeff Snyder]

This event is only four days away, as such we ask that any forecasts or analysis of the upcoming event take place in the FCST thread. If you wish to further discuss arrangements and chase plans that is okay.

I'll reiterate this. If your post is specific to Wednesday, 6/6/07, please use the appropriate FCST thread --> http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=12755

[Darren Addy]

Gee, does this mean that we can put to bed all of those dire "end of the season" posts we were reading a week ago? ;)