INVEST 96L/ Future Chantel ?

[J Kinkaid]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb.jpg

models

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif

Abnt20 Knhc 030911
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Tue Jul 3 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The Low Pressure Area In The Central Atlantic Ocean About Midway
Between Africa And South America Continues Moving Westward At About
15 Mph. Associated Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Has Increased
Since Yesterday...but Additional Development Of This System...if
Any...is Expected To Be Slow To Occur.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

[Jim Leonard]

The wind profile and seasurface temps look favorable for further development of this system (96L) but the airmass ahead of the system is very dry so this may dampen further development of this disturbance. This is typical of early season tropical systems over the tropical atlantic. This is the main reason tropical storms are not common especially in early July.

[J Kinkaid]

000
Abnt20 Knhc 032128
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Tue Jul 3 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Over The Central Atlantic Ocean Is
Located About 1400 Miles East Of The Southern Windward Islands.
Associated Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Has Decreased
Today...but It Is Still Possible That This System Could Become A
Tropical Depression Within The Next Couple Of Days As It Moves
Westward At 10 To 15 Mph.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Knabb/landsea

[Jim Leonard]

I would say the way it looks now 96L is not going to make it as far as 50W with all that dry air ahead of it. The circulation should gradually unravel as it moves westward. The diurnal blowup of convection should gradually decrease as well.

[cdcollura]

The system looks OK on the visible but is essentially a shallow broad-low pressure area (LLC). There is very little deep convection.

Also, if you loop the Visible Sat, you should see that the higher tops (of whatever bursts of convection do fire) whisk rapidly away to the east, as the low level winds chug west = Aka: Vertical wind shear.

SHEAR is a WONDERFUL word for those chasing supercells ... But in a tropical environment, "SHEAR" can be analgous to "RIDGE" in the Central USA in May, or even worse - Yikes!

Having a bulk shear of only 20-30 Knots in the 6 km deep layer will effectively tear apart any developing tropical system.

Right now - For the broad Atlantic low ... Dont expect much ;-)

[richhorodner]

As Misters Leonard and Collura stated (disappointingly I am sure), this particular ITCZ disturbance is just one of the early season African born easterly waves that looks flashy (on satellite) for a short while, but just fades as it moves along.

Hopefully, as many a busy season can progress, each succeeding disturbance will bear a little more punch, substance, and internal fortitude