Typhoon 4/Man-yi [Archive]

Tom Mitchell

07-11-2007, 10:17 AM

Typhoon 4 is sneaking up on Okinawa. As usual, the JTWC has predicted a Cat 4 monster. JMA uses much longer periods for their wind measurements, so they are predicting 85 knot winds vs. 120 knots for JTWC. Regardless, at 2 days out the tracks are usually accurate, so it looks like the kids might just get a Typhoon day for at least part of the day on Friday.

Japan Meteorological Agency English Site
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0704.html

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

The timing is such that I might actually get to take some video of the trees bending in the 80-100 knot breeze, some big waves, and the people who seem to think that umbrellas are some kind of magic force field (it blows my mind to see people try and use umbrellas in a 50 mph wind.) To be honest, not much else happens during typhoons in Okinawa, unless the are really strong. Of course, the farmers take the brunt of the losses, but 90% have insurance to cover their losses. Hopefully nobody gets hurt. We usually don't even loose electricity, although winds over 100 knots can cause some disruption, usually about 25%.

I keep you all posted, for those that are interested...

Have a great day!

Tom

Jim Leonard

07-11-2007, 02:15 PM

Japan meteorological agency along with many other agencies around the world use the 10 minute average for maximum sustained winds. I think the one minute average is much better with tropical cyclones. In reality it is those instantanious gusts that do most of the damage which is much stronger than the sustained value. In the west pacific a 125kt typhoon has an average central pressure of around 925mb pressure. The same storm will have a 10 minute average wind of 85kts.
Tom if you take some video of this or any other typhoon let me know, just PM me, thanks.

Tom Mitchell

07-11-2007, 05:43 PM

I agree with you completely. After seeing first hand how things get battered in typhoons, I think the one minute averages are a better indication of the intensity of the winds. Just imagine if they wind speeds of torandoes were reported as 10 minute averages. Regardless, the Japan Weather Agency local anemometer is about 200 meters from my house, so I will have a pretty good idea of what the winds are here.

Sky and sea here are definitely pre-typhoon...heavy surf rolling in, upper level clouds speeding east, lower level speeding west, with the largest component of the surf coming in perpendicular to the winds. Most importantly, my wife's mother, who comes from a farming family, called us yesterday to tell us that she thinks a typhoon is "coming on friday." She is always right.

Derrick Herndon

07-11-2007, 05:54 PM

Jim Leonard

07-11-2007, 09:41 PM

Jim are you getting 85 kts by converting the 125 kts to a 10-minute MSW? I think the normal conversion is 90% of the 1-minute MSW which would make a 125 kt (1-minute) MSW about 110 kts.
The Japan agency in their outlook this afternoon was showing an intensity of 85kts in their 36 hour forecast the same time JTWC was giving 125kts.

Jim Leonard

07-11-2007, 10:04 PM

Tom
It appears now you will see CPA around late morning or noontime as it looks now so you should get some good video. Make sure your car is on the lee side of a strong building and away from any trees. I know Okinowa is built to withstand typhoons, I chased one back in 1992.

Derrick Herndon

07-11-2007, 10:15 PM

The Japan agency in their outlook this afternoon was showing an intensity of 85kts in their 36 hour forecast the same time JTWC was giving 125kts.

Yeah, I was stationed in WPAC in the Navy for 3 years and we had to deal with these discrepencies a lot. The 85 kts would convert to a 1 minute MSW of about 94 kts so they appear to think that it will not strengthen as much as JTWC does. However right now at 12/00Z the CIMSS ADT is at 140 kts, the 2 AMSU-based techniques are at 105-110 kts and the subjective Dvorak from SAB is at 115 kts. Thats a pretty good consensus of estimates > 105 kts. Even the Tokyo estimates for current intensity were 102 kts at 18Z and 127 kts at 00Z. Apparently the JMA folks doing the forecasts do not put a lot of trust in the Dvorak estimates from their folks down the hall.

Derrick Herndon

07-11-2007, 10:27 PM

Yeah, I was stationed in WPAC in the Navy for 3 years and we had to deal with these discrepencies a lot. The 85 kts would convert to a 1 minute MSW of about 94 kts so they appear to think that it will not strengthen as much as JTWC does. However right now at 12/00Z the CIMSS ADT is at 140 kts, the 2 AMSU-based techniques are at 105-110 kts and the subjective Dvorak from SAB is at 115 kts. Thats a pretty good consensus of estimates > 105 kts. Even the Tokyo estimates for current intensity were 102 kts at 18Z and 127 kts at 00Z. Apparently the JMA folks doing the forecasts do not put a lot of trust in the Dvorak estimates from their folks down the hall.

Hmm, on the otherhand it appears Tokyo uses a different Dvorak scale. So what would be a T6.0 is 93 kts and T6.5 is 102 kts, still both higher than their advisory intensities.

Tom Mitchell

07-12-2007, 09:57 AM

Sorry for no updates, but there hasn't been much to say. The northwest quadrant of the storm was fairly inactive, but now things are starting to pick up with winds steady at about 40 knots.

The other exciting news is that I was diagnosed with Infuenza type A. Fever, general malaise...just my luck. Anyway, I am going to step outside to feel the wind on my face...nothing like near hurricane force gusts to freshen you up.

Radar (sorry for the link, but I can't get the image to show...)

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1136/787603337_2d917842e6.jpg?v=0

(http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1136/787603337_2d917842e6.jpg?v=0)

Derrick Herndon

07-12-2007, 10:15 AM

MatthewCarman

07-12-2007, 02:22 PM

Looks like the small island of Naha could take a hit. A cat4 Typhoon is the same as a Cat4 hurricane correct?

http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a58/Teemster/OSEIiod2.jpg

Jim Leonard

07-12-2007, 02:28 PM

The power maybe out by now so Tom won't be able to send any updates. He is probably in the airforce stationed at Kadena AFB. Okinowa

Jeff Lawson

07-12-2007, 05:36 PM

Looks like the small island of Naha could take a hit.

Just a note, Matthew... the island marked as "Naha" on the map is actually Okinawa. Naha is the largest city on the island.

MatthewCarman

07-12-2007, 06:06 PM

I see that now thanks Jeff. Was wondering where Okinawa was. This Typhoon is heading strait for Okinawa I hope we do not have much loss of life from this hurricane.

Jim Leonard

07-12-2007, 06:27 PM

The typhoon's eyewall is now entering the south shore of Okinowa. The island should be experiencing the full force of its 100kt+ winds. The entire island should get the eastern eyewall during the next several hours. Tom should have a interesting story to tell once he has electricity.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RODN.html

Tom Mitchell

07-12-2007, 09:47 PM

Hi all. I didn't send any updates because I was too busy playing outside.

Winds in the eyewall are about 100kts. Gusts seem to be about 120.

We haven't lost electricity. I will leave you all to be amazed at that.

I wish I had an interesting story to tell, but basically, I don't. I went outside, took video, which was pretty boring. With not much damage, you can't really tell how strong the winds are. I did however, lose my glasses in one gust of 100+, but I found them about an hour later when we were in the eye.

Most people went to work, the only reason I didn't is because I work at a Japanese Public Elementary school, and needless to say, today is their version of a snow day.

There is some damage to the electric power lines near my apartment, and last night a transformer blew, but we lost electricity for only 10 minutes.

We have some water seeping in around the south facing doorwalls, which are directly facing the the south eastern eyewall, but nothing that towels haven't been able to soak up.

Like I said before, most people went to work, and the tv showed long lines of traffic going around a mini Van flipped on its said. When I say mini, I mean mini- 660cc engine, two seats, probably about 1500 lbs. The flipped car wasn't so surprising to me, but the thousands of other cars driving around in the eyewall were.

My computer decided it won't capture video, so until I figure that out, you will have to wait for the boring video.

To recap, nothing much is happening, except 100 knot winds, and 120 knot gusts. I won't say it is an anti-climax, in fact it has been great fun and good luck so far. Nothing like trying to move about in 80 knot winds, feeling the sting of the rain, and getting knocked down by a stronger gust. I am still trying to decide is it is really possible to ambulate during 100kt winds. By today's experience, I would say no.

Radar:

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1373/794515400_ee68d74364.jpg?v=0

Derrick Herndon

07-12-2007, 11:44 PM

It looks like Naha was in the eastern edge of the eye as winds dropped down to 25 kts with a pressure of 940 mb. Based on the wind and distance to the center it looks like the MSLP was around 935 mb. Naha experienced the eyewall twice but was more exposed for the second round with winds of 62G82 kts. These winds seem rather low and I have to wonder how exposed this obervation site is. Kadena to the north was similar with 66G86 kts and a gust to 91 kts 20 minutes later.

Tom Mitchell

07-13-2007, 02:24 AM

While it is difficult to judge wind speeds by eye, at my location the wind speed was stronger during the second eyewall. I would estimate 75-85 knots with gusts to 110. My location is much more exposed to the southwest, hence, the damage from the 2nd eyewall is a little more severe, but still only consists of broken branches, and light structural damage to secondary structures.

They only reason I allow myself to venture even a guess at the wind speeds is simply experience. I have seen several typhoons, including the big Miyako Typhoon in 2003, which had gusts to 160.

This storm caused the building to shake, and water to leak in past the window seals, which generally occurs at around 100 kts. Also, upon surveying the local area, there was tree damage, with healthy trees losing branches up to 3 inches in diameter, and minor structural damage to homes and outbuildings. I would say that most of the damage was due to gusts, and based on the damage those gusts were around 100-110, with a couple higher gusts to 120 likely.

I should note that my building is on a hilltop, about 50 meters above sea level, near the southern tip of the island. The southern tip is actually a kilometer or two west of Naha, and therefore we were a little deeper into the storm I believe. While the skies didn't clear, the winds were close to zero during the eye.

All this leads me to question the ability of forecasting wind speed. Every typhoon I have experienced has been forecast at 10-20 knots faster than actually occurred, with the exception of the Miyako Typhoon.

I have a fever of about 102, which is making it hard for me to make sense, so please excuse any completely incoherent things I have said :) Then again, even without a fever I can be pretty incoherent...

Will get some video up if I can ever get my computer to capture video again...

Tarmo Tanilsoo

07-13-2007, 02:46 AM

I have a fever of about 102, which is making it hard for me to make sense, so please excuse any completely incoherent things I have said :) Then again, even without a fever I can be pretty incoherent...
I would recommend to lay down in bed and get some rest instead. 102 degrees fever is no joke.

By the way, do you have any English language media over there?

Is it just me or the storm is very large?

cdcollura

07-13-2007, 09:48 AM

Good day,

Yup ... Got sick 90% of the time myself during any hurricane (same as typhoon) chasing - Sleep deprivation and adrenaline causes your defenses to go down and you catch anything. Hope you feel better.

I am wondering about the lesser-than-expected damage. You say the units are in Knots, right ... Are they saying Kilometers-Per-Hour, by any chance?

I know the metric system is used extensively outside the USA, so I am just wondering.

If the units are KM per Hour, then a value of 100 KM Per Hour is like 62 to 63 MPH, or about 54 Knots (a KNOT is 1.15 MPH, and a KM Per Hour is 0.625 MPH).

One Knot is also 1.84 KM Per Hour.

I am trusting the latter as Knots, and think the lesser damage is due to much stronger buildings there.

Oh, and not to mention that they work through those things and never take off unless it's a SUPER typhoon!

I guess if I lived in Japan I cannot use the excuse of not coming into work today as often if a system hits ;-(

Tarmo Tanilsoo

07-13-2007, 10:21 AM

Chris, actually, 1 knot is 1,852 km/h or 1 nm/h. I know it exactly, as its exact value of know in our scale is 0,51(4) m/s, which 0,51(4) m/s*3,6=1,852 km/h.

Also...
I guess if I lived in Japan I cannot use the excuse of not coming into work today as often if a system hits ;-(
Welcome to my home country. Storm surge might be about to rush in at the coast and winds could be in 70's, but offices, not to mention schools remain open. I don't know, what is this - some issue with mentality etc, like - ah, nature can never harm us or... nah, all the big storms are in USA and not here...

Derrick Herndon

07-13-2007, 11:18 AM

While it is difficult to judge wind speeds by ......eye, at my location the wind speed was stronger during the second eyewall. I
All this leads me to question the ability of forecasting wind speed. Every typhoon I have experienced has been forecast at 10-20 knots faster than actually occurred, with the exception of the Miyako Typhoon.

I have a fever of about 102, which is making it hard for me to make sense, so please excuse any completely incoherent things I have said :) Then again, even without a fever I can be pretty incoherent...

The winds quoted by the warning agencies are always for over water exposure and will be about 10% higher than anything experienced on land. The exception is for higher terrain where the gusts can approach the over water wind speeds/gusts. Winds at coastal stations often are less than the reported sustained wind of the storm. Unfortunately this often leads residents who almost never experience the full force of the storm to question the intensity. With that said I believe JTWC was a little high on their intensity for this storm.

Do you have a barometer?

Naha launched an 18Z sounding yesterday but I have been unable to find it, only the 00Z.

Jim Leonard

07-13-2007, 01:39 PM

My observation in landfalling hurricanes along the gulf coast and Carolina coast that I've been in is you usually hear the highest wind gust is either just under the highest sustaind value you hear in the advisory. In the deep tropics however like in the tropical islands you will see the sustained winds and the wind gusts either as high or somewhat higher than the advisory. This is probably due to the tighter gradient near the core of the storm and deeper convection in the eyewall of the storm in the lower latitudes.

Bill Hark

07-18-2007, 11:23 PM

I found some youtube videos of the typhoon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orqtMLBWO4M

This girl is not too smart.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgU_0JgEMVs&mode=related&search=

Love the horizontal rain
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpFx-FQt-Uo&mode=related&search=

Here's one more:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFIfTKwvtNg&mode=related&search=

There are alot more Man-Yi videos that come up on the related search. I am too tired too look at all tonight. What are your favorites?
Bill Hark

Adam Hill

07-30-2007, 09:58 AM

i am stationed in Yokosuka, Japan Man-yi hit us as a tropical storm with winds of 33knots with gusts 40 kts and some heavy rain right before it sped to the northeast and became extra tropical.

Tom Mitchell

09-09-2007, 08:23 AM

Ok, very late, but here it is. I finally got my computer to accept DV again so here is The totally boring video of Man-yi taken from my apartment (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j27Z0sFdALU). Please excuse my stupid comments...I had a fever of 102F.

I can't stress how boring this storm looked, despite the weather guys on the little hill above my apartment saying the max instantaneous gust they recorded was 62m/s, which is about 125 kts(lowest press at their station was 934). So my eyeball for windspeed was pretty good. Like I said before, it was this instantaneous gust, and the several other strong gusts that did most of the damage I believe. It was a weak Cat 3/strong Cat 2, which while isn't something you want to doodle into the wind at, it certainly wasn't historic, especially in a place that gets cleaned up by typhoons every year.

Have a great day!