The tropics will be heating up soon.

[Jim Leonard]

This time of year I hear the same old song from some in the media and from some people I meet when we have no hurricanes by this time. " This is such a quiet season, huh! I have to explain an average hurricane season does not really get into full steam until after August 15th. Some busy seasons have even started after August 25th. Historically most of the strongest storms occur in September, remember "Andrew" on August 24th the first of the season 1992.
Looking at this years overall pattern I see for one thing is the monsoon trough is beginning to shape up along and off west Africa very well. The global models show a real good SW and and west low level flow south of 10N out to about 45W during the next many days. This is typical this time of year in a season where one would expect to see at least one named storm within about a week. I will stick my neck out and say by the end of next week we will see at least a tropical storm develop between the Lesser Antilles and west Africa.
Usually when action starts in August you will see several storms develop in a few weeks time.

[Perry Williams]

I agree Jim.....prime time for major Atlantic basin hurricanes doesn't even begin until mid-August. July 2005 was an extremely rare event (two 150+ mph hurricanes in Dennis & Emily; Dennis becoming the first landfalling major U.S. hurricane during July since 1936) we may not witness again in our lifetimes.

This July has been typical for most hurricane seasons. I expect the late August into October time frame to become very active; with the current TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) levels in the western Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of Mexico, I have great concern that a powerful hurricane or two will strengthen rapidly as they move toward south Florida and/ or the U.S. Gulf coast.

[Brett Adair]

I wouldn't be surprised if we get a home grown system or two if this troughing in the east moves out. I think the Atlantic is about to heat up with very little dry air since the SAL isn't around very much.

I'm ready to see some Trichodonial Oscillations with the canes this year! :) Maybe they won't hit anything though.....however a good TS or weak cane that could sit over the SE US would be great right about now.

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like maybe something may gear up shortly...at least for the Bahamas in the Aug 9th-ish timeframe. May be a watcher for the NC Outer Banks eventually. Of course this is the GFS being referenced so the grains of salt are boulder sized.

[Austin Ivey]

I recall from various sources that the overall atlantic basin peak time, that is when the chance of a named storm somewhere in the basin is high based on the historical record since 1854, is September 10.

I think the Gulf of Mexico basin peak is slightly later.

It's not a gradual rise toward September 10...as others have pointed out there is quite a dramatic jump in mid-August followed by a dramatic slump after mid-October.

[Warren Faidley]

Yea, good note Jim. I'm tired of all the so-called pre-season forecasts -- favorable or not. Who really knows. It only takes one Katrina or Andrew to cause a disaster. I noticed that some commercial and "scientific" forecasters have already cut back their predictions by 50%, including WSI who did so yesterday. It seems like they are gambling to nail it right, then claim they were the "experts." I say we vote Tropical Jim in as the new TPC Director, but he would not be there during any good storm -- but hell, a live report from the Director would be great! (:

I'll wait unit the first good tropical system threatens, then head to Florida for some treasure hunting and chasing!

Warren

[Blake Michaleski]

Here in Mobile, People are tropical-aware this time of year given the several near missed we've had here. I've been continually asked since Jube 1st when we're gonna get a 'cane. Everyone is seeming to relax a little here lately since they are using July '05 as a benchmark to compare. I've heard alot of, "oh its a slow season huh?" To which I reply, "It's only July"...

If something threatens a few hundred miles east or west of here, I'll be ready though. We'll have to go to the oyster house again, Jim, if you make it this way.

[Jim Leonard]

Yo, Blake.
That was a good seafood restaurant, hope to get by there again sometime soon.
That disturbance in the western GOM is looking really interesting today. I see there is more and more anticyclonic flow showing up at upper levels. This is something Texas can do without. If a low level circulation gets going soon the system should at least become a weak tropical storm fairly quick before landfall.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Not much going on with the tropical system in the NW GOM ... If you look at the satellite image of it, it actually is a squall line (typical MCS) and not even round. There is an upper-high over the GOM, but this surface "feature" is on the NW edge of it and getting sheared apart.

I also agree with this season being much like 2004, we already had the "A" and "B" storms, so most likely, the "C" storm will be around mid August. Remember "Charley", then "remember" all the activity after that in '04 ;-)

Right now, the subsidence is high (trade wind inversion) and there is an east-coast trough in place (shear). The latter may persist, but the subsidence is usually gone by August.

Anyway, happy to be back in Florida after a 5-6 month computer "gig" in Ohio.

Back in hurricane "alley"!

[richhorodner]

Anyway, happy to be back in Florida after a 5-6 month computer "gig" in Ohio.

Back in hurricane "alley"!

Do you have hurricane shutters for all your windows, doors and garage door for your place in Florida??

-------

One major enjoyment of watching/studying hurricanes is that no two seasons are alike. One can find some similarities, like GENERAL areas of formation in a given year; but, it is hard to find two historical years where there are two or more hurricanes having similar effects in similar areas.

It is a "general" observation that the active seasons begin in late July or early August. BUT, when things are slow, there is always 1961 to refer to:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1961/index.html

Only one storm before Sept. Shortly, though, there were four hurricanes going at the same time, and the year ended with two cat. #5s, two Cat #4s, and three cat #3s. One hurricane was Carla, a famous Texas storm; one which would drive the price of gas way past $4.00 for sure in today's environment.

I seem to recall that there were small craft, gale, or hurricane warnings up along every mile of coastline of the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. Carla was an extremely large hurricane, and some advisories mentioned gale winds extending over 300 miles in all directions.

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Do you have hurricane shutters for all your windows, doors and garage door for your place in Florida??

Sure do. Just a pain putting them all up on 16 windows (2 story). I am seriously considering the accordian / roll-up type shudder system as a next investment.

Even a more scary scenario would be a violent hurricane like Frances back in 2004, coming ashore at UNDER 5 MPH to the west ... but with an intensity like Isabel in 2003 (annular storm, 175-MPH+ sustained, 70-mile wide eye) and hitting farther south than Frances did - It could happen, and maybe will someday.

Just a thought.

[Jim Bishop]

I'm liking what Jim L. is saying about the Eastern Atlantic tropical waves. A new one has just emerged off the African coast, and that may be the one many runs of the GFS, European and Canadian have been developing into pretty good tropical systems early next week. Even NOGAPS and the UKMET suggest lowered pressures out there.

We're still barely hanging onto the tail end of the enhanced convection from the MJO, so I'm cautiously optimistic about some type of disturbance worth noting within the next several days. At the very least this season is starting to wake up. I'm very optimistic about this year's peak season.