02/28 FCST: Texas Saturday

[Tim Vasquez]

I am starting this thread in case anyone needs to discuss today's pattern. Thanks for keeping discussions in their correct threads.

Tim

[John Cameron]

Good looking trough, nice cap. hard to get excited about the PBL temps and Dewpoints. Of course its not even noon yet. Has LBB issued their outlook yet?

[David Drummond]

Good looking trough, nice cap. hard to get excited about the PBL temps and Dewpoints. Of course its not even noon yet. Has LBB issued their outlook yet?

Yeah it's here:


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warn...WEATHER+OUTLOOK (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ035&warncounty=TXC303&local_place1=Lubbock&product1=HAZARDOUS+WEATHER+OUTLOOK)

Basically, storms going up by around 4 pm with high wind/hail potential. Looks like I will be going out today, time to start doing some surface analysis!

Looks like another big sandstorm in store for the area AGAIN tomorrow :roll:

[Jay McCoy]

Basically, storms going up by around 4 pm with high wind/hail potential. Looks like I will be going out today, time to start doing some surface analysis!

I and my partners (Kanani and Bill) will be headed out today also. probably going to target Dimmit to Littlefield and see what happens. Nice clearing on the TX/NM border today so best heat and instability should be found along it. I am sure we will run into each other as usual David. See ya in a few hours.

[David Drummond]

I and my partners (Kanani and Bill) will be headed out today also. probably going to target Dimmit to Littlefield and see what happens. Nice clearing on the TX/NM border today so best heat and instability should be found along it. I am sure we will run into each other as usual David. See ya in a few hours.

Hope we do Jay! Just looking over things....what a nasty cap! Can't complain about the windfields though for February for sure.

Things seem to be warming up nicely in the clearing there along the TX/NM border.

Good luck Jay!

[David Drummond]

Was just looking at the 20z storm relative winds over the TX south plains...

0-2km east @ 20kts
4-6km ssw @ 25-30kts
9-11km sw @ 60-65kts with upstream winds to 70 kts

too bad temps and moisture weren't just a little higher :?

[Tim Vasquez]

Here is an interesting play-by-play of what the 21Z RUC is doing after dark:

>> 03Z - http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/ruc06.gif
>> 06Z - http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/ruc09.gif
>> 09Z - http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/ruc12.gif

Red contours are convective precip, and green is theta-e.

It seems to want to break out precip NW of Lubbock after dark, then digs in with the main Texas squall line around the BGS-FST area after midnight. Let's see how good a job this run does. If it pans out, looks like a good light show on the tail end around the Del Rio area.

Also this may trash Sunday's possibilities. :(

Tim

[Bob Schafer]

I've been watching the radar images for a couple hours now, and AMA has been getting drenched for quite a while. The streets must be flooded everywhere there.

Radar indicated tops are only about 25K.

Bob

[David Drummond]

I wound up west of Lubbock along the NM border in Cochran County, where I encountered some decent CG lightning and some MASSIVE amounts of pea size hail covering the road to 3" deep in some places. It looked like we had just had a decent snow! The road was VERY slick! It was crazy!

Worked my way back east again to the community of Whiteface where I had stopped to download a current radar and the sirens start going off!!
I am like WTF? I can't believe they are sounding the sirens for this stuff. Then the next thing I know out come the firetrucks from the local VFD. Turns out just down the street lightning and sparked a house fire! Made for some dramatic video watching the firefighters do their thing while the rain and lightning moved in on them!

OK, now I have broken yet another personal record...TWO chases in February. I hope the rest of the season is as good as it started!

[Dan Cook]

Worked my way back east again to the community of Whiteface where I had stopped to download a current radar and the sirens start going off!!
I am like WTF? I can't believe they are sounding the sirens for this stuff. Then the next thing I know out come the firetrucks from the local VFD.

Forgot that small towns use sirens to call firemen to the house? :wink:

[David Drummond]

Worked my way back east again to the community of Whiteface where I had stopped to download a current radar and the sirens start going off!!
I am like WTF? I can't believe they are sounding the sirens for this stuff. Then the next thing I know out come the firetrucks from the local VFD.

Forgot that small towns use sirens to call firemen to the house? :wink:

Oh yeah I knew, just was the last thing I was thinking of during a thunderstorm. 8)

[Dan Cook]

Worked my way back east again to the community of Whiteface where I had stopped to download a current radar and the sirens start going off!!
I am like WTF? I can't believe they are sounding the sirens for this stuff. Then the next thing I know out come the firetrucks from the local VFD.

Forgot that small towns use sirens to call firemen to the house? :wink:

Oh yeah I knew, just was the last thing I was thinking of during a thunderstorm. 8)

Well it IS February and tornadoes weren't forecasted to happen.. :wink:

[David Drummond]

Well it IS February and tornadoes weren't forecasted to happen.. :wink:

Well, you also have to realize this community has about 600 people too. Structure fires in the middle of BFE weren't on my mind at the moment. :wink:

[Dan Cook]

Well it IS February and tornadoes weren't forecasted to happen.. :wink:

Well, you also have to realize this community has about 600 people too. Structure fires in the middle of BFE weren't on my mind at the moment. :wink:

Well now you're more prepared for Spring. ;)

[Jay McCoy]

I ended up west of Dimmit for a while then chased the "line" back up to Vega and into Amarillo. I didnt get into any hail but had alot of good CG for the first hour or so. The line seemed to slow down (storms moving north at 35 but the line moving east at 10) as the pressure falls from the approching system held it up. At least until the front got there and they met up. You could see the line expand rapidly over amarillo as they met. Officially only .88 out at the NWS east of town but on the north side of town it was between 3-4 inches. We had alot of flooding in the city.

David, We will try to meet up another time I guess.

It wasnt anything major but a chase in Feb. in the panhandle is a nice treat. Just good to see some CG and hear some cracks of thunder again. SDS has subsided somewhat.

[Tim Vasquez]

Here's how the RUC (21Z base time) performed, compared to the actual radar from Weathertap, overnight:

03Z - http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/ruc06.jpg
06Z - http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/ruc09.jpg
09Z - http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/ruc12.jpg

I'd say it did pretty darn good considering this originated off of 12Z upper air data. Not so good on the trailing stratiform area, but I didn't check the non-convective precip panels; they might be different.

Tim

[David Drummond]

Looks like it nailed it pretty good in the first and third panels there Tim. Is it always that accurate?