Christmas winter storm?

[Bob Johnson]

GFS continues to advertise a big storm around Christmas for the eastern U.S. You may be asking why are saying this this far out? GFS has been pretty well detecting big storms in the long range (7 to 10 days) Also the 12z ECMWF has been showing a major storm developing in southern Plains at 240hr. May be a interesting week ahead for the central part of the U.S. Strong positive EPO may flood warm pacific air back into the U.S. :mad:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_216.shtml

[Bob Johnson]

12z ECMWF/GFS continue to advertise a big storm around Chirstmas. ECMWF at 240 is closed of in central Illinois while GFS furthur south and deeper. Regardless how this pans out, alot of warm air will get advected into this system.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

(Tim, et. al., plz move where you wish)

OAX mentions a 'significant winter storm' 'somewhere on the central plains' this Saturday, which would take care of a white Christmas for whomever is in the path--anyone pin it down any further yet? Thanks and happy holidays!

[Mikey Gribble]

I was thinking Kansas would get hammered when the models were consistent with a slower moving closed low setup, but now that the last several runs are faster with an open wave I'm looking more towards the northeast for a major snow storm. Iowa, NE Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana are my best bet right now if you believe the last couple runs that have the faster solution. Who the hell knows though. The models are all over the place. I'm anxiously awaiting this mornings runs.

[Mike Hollingshead]

12z gfs really lights up se NE western IA this Saturday!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs132hr_sfc_mslp.gif

Should be some wind this go around. Hmmmm, if only it were closer. Sigh, another week of staring at model runs.

[Bob Johnson]

Indeed, not good folks for Great Lakes. SE ridge is raging like the T-givving day.

[Mikey Gribble]

Yeah the 12Z does look really good for eastern Nebraska, Iowa on on NE of there. Kansas is back in the mix now with the 12Z run. I hate the the closed low kicks out to the NE so quickly though. Still, if the 12Z were to verify central Kansas would probably get a good swath of >4 inches. Temperature looks to be an issue with Kansas on this storm though. With temps well above freezing up until the front comes through, cooling ground temperatures down enough for the snow to stick could take a while and we'll loose some accumulation because of it. I don't why I even bother putting that much thought into it though because we all know it is going to change. I just hope it moves slightly more South of the current track, slows down a little, and we should be money here in Wichita.

[Bob Johnson]

It will change like always. I am not buying it but I honestly wouldn't doubt a track west of Chicago.

[Dustin Wilcox]

The GFS has been remarkably consistent in advertising this strong system since 384 hours out. Timing has obviously changed but for the past 200+ hours its been bringing a strong trough across the plains region some time during the December 22-25 time period. If this mornings run verifies it will have almost nailed it just one day off.

http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/CONUS_2P5GFS_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_360.gif

http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/CONUS_2P5GFS_500_GPHTMPVORT_360HR.gif

[Mike Hollingshead]

The GFS has been remarkably consistent in advertising this strong system since 384 hours out. Timing has obviously changed but for the past 200+ hours its been bringing a strong trough across the plains region some time during the December 22-25 time period. If this mornings run verifies it will have almost nailed it just one day off.





Could be less than 1 day off if the ecmwf has anything to say. The 12z ecmwf is a bit slower than the 12z gfs.

When was our last white christmas around here? It sure seems like it has been a while, though it doesn't seem like it should be that long ago.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_500_spd_120.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Geopotential%20500%20hPa%21120%21 North%20America%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%2 12007121712%21%21chart.gif

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I am really hoping the track of the lo does not shift any further NW than what it is right now. ARX seems to think the snow/rain line will be from AT LEAST KGRB-KLSE-KALO...since I live only a smidge NW of ALO I might be on the line of this one. But Omaha and Quad cities are still talking major winter storm if not blizzard somewhere. There appear to be about a zillion isobars over my head on saturday thru Sunday...should be some impressive winds if nothing else.

[Dustin Wilcox]

When was our last white christmas around here? It sure seems like it has been a while, though it doesn't seem like it should be that long ago.


According to this, the last time we seen anymore then a dusting of snow actually fall on Christmas was 1964. 2000 was the last time we had any sort of a snow pack.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=christmas

I am really hoping the track of the lo does not shift any further NW than what it is right now.

OAX discussion mentions that they would expect any shifting of Models Solutions to be to the NW, though that seems to be nothing more then speculation.

[Bob Johnson]

Horrible. 18z GFS continues this. Flooding rains for GL if this continues.

[Nick Hartley]

Turns out parts of eastern South Dakota got a whiter Christmas. Sioux Falls recieved almost 5 inches yesterday, here in Brookings, I measured 2 inches. I know there are some businesses that offer free or highly discounted purchases if it snow 2" or more on Christmas Day. Poor merchants. I'm thankful for a nice white Christmas up here.

[rdale]

GFS continues to advertise a big storm around Christmas for the eastern U.S. You may be asking why are saying this this far out? GFS has been pretty well detecting big storms in the long range (7 to 10 days)

I've been offline for a few days - how'd that turn out?