Potential winter storm to affect portions of the midwest and or plains next weekend?

[Craig Maire II]

Just checked Desmoines IA hazardous weather discussion and forecast discussion and it seems that MAYBE my area will see yet another significant winter storm next Saturday night or Sunday: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/?n=outlooks

Looks like we might actually have a white Christmas this year!:D

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Yeah Craig I saw that too. I think areas such as KS, MO, IA, NE, IL, even OK may see some winter precip next weekend. I will be in Texas this weekend though so I will miss it. The 4-8 day outlook stated a possibility of severe weather in TX when I'm down there. So all in all it could be an active weekend for the Central US and New England by early the next week as yet another possible nor'easter may affect that region.

[Bob Johnson]

12z ECMWF is much stronger and furthurest north taking it north of Chicago. This would imply big snowstorm for Plains and Western Lakes. At this time would look like rain for Chicago and Detroit. Another fun week ahead. Take this baby furthur south.

[Mikey Gribble]

Been watching it too. The GFS has been very consistent up until this mornings run, where it opened the wave and sped it up. If we could get a slow moving closed low it could be a big snow event for Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Iowa. I haven't been watching this real closely, but I'm getting ready to. NWS in Wichita keeps mentioning it in their discussions and the latest forecast discussion mentions how they through out the 12Z GFS, so obviously they aren't buying the faster open wave solution. We'll have to wait and see, but I would love a huge snow storm. Especially with ONCE AGAIN getting screwed out of the snow on this snow storm that came through this weekend.

[Bob Johnson]

00z GFS/GGEM hooks the storm up to Fort Wayne, Indiana. Big snows for Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin as storm rapidly deepens.

Caution: 6 days out.

[Joel Wright]

The last few operational GFS runs look a little out to lunch to me. Way too progressive with what appears to be a decent storm. It was actually more in line with other longer range models yesterday and the day before. Even the latest 00z GFS seems too progressive and "open". ECMWF model shows a much less progressive/deeper low hanging back and evolving into a rather potent storm for the middle part of the CONUS by the weekend.

Could this be four weekends in a row there's a decent storm marching across the country? Wow.

[Bob Johnson]

06z GFS just steers the hell out of this storm and sends it up the western lakes. This almost looks like a T-givving day redux when all that warm air drove up into the ridge. Not buying this even though 12z ECMWF is furthur NW.

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I am going to have to agree with Joel that the last few GFS runs I think are on crack. Some old lady came into my work the other day and told me that you should never have a snowstorm on the 1st of December, then December will be horrible for storms. Probably an old wives tale but so far she has been correct. Quad cities says someone could have blizzard conditions on Saturday night. Here's hoping it's me :-)

[Bob Johnson]

Rain rain go away come back some other time. If 12z GFS verifies I will be singing that all weekend.

[Joel Wright]

This is going to be an interesting storm for two reasons. The first, it's going to guarantee a white christmas for the folks who get slammed by the snowstorm. The second, on the warm side of the storm, the warmer temps and big dump of rain will wipe out much of the snowpack already in place. Some of the surface temps may be a bit overdone east of the low track, due to the fact the colder air will be a bit more stubborn/harder to displace with all the snow on the ground. It still would get warm enough, and when combined with rain would cause a lot of melting. Actually, depending on how much rain fell in a given location it could be a small flooding threat in urban areas where drains could be blocked/clogged with snow.

Anyway, the new (12z) operation GFS run came back to reality and showed a deeper and closed low configuration.

[JIM SELLARS]

The models have the track all over the place on this next storm...But I still see a bushel of snow on the NW side of it and SVR on the SE side...My thoughts is about 100 miles farther north than this weekends storm in the midwest and a siimilar track across the "RUST BELT" and New England

[Bob Johnson]

Jim where do you live?

[JIM SELLARS]

Southwest Missouri....Springfield

[Bob Johnson]

00z NAM is out to 84hr. Looks like it may go furthur SE loking at 500mb vortex.

[Bob Johnson]

00z GFS is furthur SE. Looks good for western Lakes (West and North of Chicago)

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I hope the lo does not shift back to the NW as the track of the lo as it is now would be just about the golden path for me to get banged with snow. But still almost 5 days out and we all know how the models can be...

[Adam Lucio]

I dont like the latest runs, they spell nothing but rain for me and it seems the system has been sliding to the N with each run, models lately seem to be keeping the systems a little to the S of where they actually track.

Latest GFS bring the low almost directly over Chicago, if it jogs to the E a little bit we may see some wrap around snow but right now Im not excited yet,if I were in MN and IA I would be though.

This would be the 4th weekend in a row with a significant system!

Why cant this be SPRING!

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I am in Iowa, right around Waterloo so I am excited! I have gotten the shaft on the last two storms...both too far south for me to get any real precip; last one I a spit of fzr and then an even less spit of snow...but I won't get overly excited yet as it's still a way out!

[Dan Cook]

Good old GFS..now it's barely showing a low moving through the area.

[Rhyuan Janssen]

The GFS likes to make everyone wonder from time to time. Like yesterday when it opened the wave for one run and then went right back to closed...Even though it's still several days out I don't see some huge upset like it falling apart or the low going thru Kentucky or some weirdness...

[Josh Richardson]

Yep, not much to say about this mornings run. Still could see some accumulations up here in Northern IA but the low doesnt get really get going like Dan mentioned anymore for IL and GL region. Long ways out yet, we'll just wait and watch this thing flip back and forth Im sure.

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I seriously hope the GFS had some bad coffee this morning as it takes the lo from the boarder of TX/LA up thru TN and KY!! that would spell certain doom for any of my winter hopes here in IA!

[Rhyuan Janssen]

Looking back to my post about Kentucky; maybe I should have never said that as right now run looks to go right thru them. I am thinking that this is one of those weird GFS runs that just show up, like yesterdays one, and the run after this will be right back to where we were. If the next run comes out with the same thing and the other models trend towards it, I will get worried. Should be interesting to see what all the NWS centers say this afternoons package. My NWS just upped my pops to 70% on Saturday and saturday night, which will not happen if the low truly goes about 600 miles to the south of me LOL.

[Bob Johnson]

18z GFS continues to show a strong northern stream. Therefore there is no southern storm and it's quite progressive. However, massive artic air spills into the GL. Not buying this run at all even though it has some support. Remember yesterday when it was in central Iowa lol.

[Bob Johnson]

The 00z GFS is furthur SE with a stronger southern low. If that southern low can develop it will track along a cold front provided by the northern stream and could possibly send a big storm up the Lakes in future runs. 00z GGEM is similar but the 00z UKMET shows a split flow!

[Joel Wright]

Still a murky picture of what's going to happen this weekend. All kinds of phasing issues the models are struggling with. I think what will end up happening is a slower and deeper storm than what some of the models are showing right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see the heavy snow band get pushed back out towards Kansas and Nebraska/western Iowa, where it originally was placed a few days ago. This is based largely off of the consistency of the ECMWF model. Interestingly, it seems as if that model is the one that seems to keep things too progressive sometimes.

My gut feeling is the area from eastern KS up through about the western 2/3 of IA (clipping both NE and MO), and up into MN/WI will get nailed with this one. Time will tell.

[Josh Murfield]

The Omaha NWS office's forecast discussion this morning states that they are going with the notion that this thing is going to weaken as it moves through, they're only talking about 1-3 inches of snow here in eastern Nebraska. I sure hope they are wrong, I've had my hopes up for something big this weekend. :)

[Jim Zandonai]

Models now seem to be pushing low farther east..my guess is it looks to pass SE of N.IL and personally I think a light-moderately strong system will affect the area.
The 06z GFS yesterday morning showed a shift to the east with the track of the low. The 00z GFS run this morning continues to show a surface Low tracking to the southeast of my area but apparently weaker.
The European model has Low in almost the same spot as the GFS ..
So at this time I would go with a light/mod snow event somewhere in EC IA or NW IL..this is still a ways out so much can change. One thing that does appear certain and a given is another Arctic cold blast to follow with significant wind chills..Lets see how far till April ?
Anyway I am not getting overly exciting about this at this time..Time will tell.

[Joel Wright]

Definitely not buying the 12z GFS. Out to lunch city. This seems to always happen around the 84-120 time frame. A storm system that was forecasted with regularity suddenly drops off the map, only to suddenly reappear within the 84hr time frame. The western Pacific must be sampled better than the eastern Pacific or something.

If the storm system doesn't "reappear" to where it once was, further to the west and stronger by tomorrow's run, I'll buy everyone a round. Guess that'll have to be a "cyber" round since no one lives close to me lol.

[Joel Wright]

Actually, just took a peak at the new 18z NAM, and it's already trending a bit stronger/slower/further west in it's path. I think the 00z runs tonight will be quite telling on the future of the upcoming weekend...

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I am having some renewed hope for our big storm now!! This is from Quad Cities!

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED SEASONABLY COLD AND UNSETTLED...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT TO
MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT REGION SATURDAY.

ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION SHOW CONTINUED LARGE CHANGES IN RUN TO RUN
SOLUTIONS AND INTRA-MODEL VARIANCE DUE TO PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN JET STREAMS. 1Z ECMWF IS TROUBLING WITH RAPID DEEPENING OF
STORM SYSTEM OVER AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SFC LOW GOING
FROM 1007 TO 988 MB IN 12 HOURS...19 MB...OR NEAR CYCLONIC
BOMBOGENESIS CRITERIA OF 24 MB. MORE DISTURBING IS D_PROG_DT SHOWING
ECMWF MOST STABLE OF ALL SOLUTIONS...WILL GO WITH LIMITED INPUT FROM
ECMWF AND PASS TO NIGHT SHIFTS TO CLOSELY MONITOR DUE TO RISK AND
CONSEQUENCES FOR AREA OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS SYSTEM ENERGY DISTRIBUTION AND TRACK CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS FAVORED
FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TO INTENSE SYSTEM TO PASS OVER AND AFFECT
AREA. WENT WITH 12Z NAM-WRF/GFS/UKMET BLEND WITH AGAIN SOME INPUTS
FROM ECMWF FORCING KEEPING LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH DECENT WINDS
BEHIND FRONT. ADDENDUM...18Z NAM-WRF TRENDING TOWARD 12Z ECMWF WHICH
ELEVATES CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM
SATURDAY.


IF this really is the most STABLE solution we really could have a blizzard again! I wonder if this will pan out?! I am hoping so!!

:):):)

[Joel Wright]

Yeah, the ECMWF has easily been the most stable of all the models with this storm. With this morning's run it's even stronger with it. Although it may actually be overdoing it a little bit.

This storm system may end up being like the growling tornado that suddenly reappeared over the highway in Twister.

[Brandon Sullivan]

I agree with Joel, the ECMWF has held strong through the period.

Looking at the 0z MRF/WRF/GFS/ECMWF, I am confused. They still cant seem to agree.. It looks to me like they are faster with the movement/progression of the low.. And much more unorganized.

However, QPF amounts are still relatively high, and with my region staying in the cool sector, may still see some hefty snow amounts.. Time will tell..

Also of concern will be the pressure gradient winds.. Gale warnings already posted off the coast..

Anyone know what "D_PROG_DT " means?

[Joel Wright]

...Anyone know what "D_PROG_DT " means?


I could be way off, but the way it's worded makes it sound like it's some sort of algorithm used to calculate which forecast model has been the most consistent.

[rdale]

Delta prog (change in forecast) Delta Time (with change in time.) Measures how much a model run differs (or better yet -- matches) its previous runs.

No algorithm needed - your brain can do it, or just plot the 00Z 36hr forecast on top of the 12Z 24 hour...

[Rhyuan Janssen]

WOO HOO...LA CRoss and QCA have now issued Winter STorm watches..up to 8 inches...talking about thundersnow and snowfall rates over 2 inches with zero visability...YEE HAW!!

[Rhyuan Janssen]

ZIPPEE I am under winter storm watch now...everyone east of 35 in iowa...but they are talking maybe a nw trend... if this thing slows down a bit... we are really in for it!

[Craig Maire II]

I love severe weather including winter storms and this event could make my drive to Desmoines on Saturday a little interesting :D

[Jeff Miller]

Keep in mind a few things on the homeswing:

1. The system is still a little ways off due to the fact the models have been very inconsistent. This is the type of system that will dissapoint some heavily and will surprise others delightfully - as it's all still much in the air. FSD is still saying confidence is low in any given solution.

2. The storm's path is still very, very uncertain. It has gone from a Great Lakes Storm to a Plains Storm back to the lakes and now back to the Plains. I'm not being biased when I mention farther NW is very possible, especially if it comes out stronger than models are projecting. Therefore, heavier accumulations could, could occur west of I-35 even. Even though models are latching on, we're still dealing with many, many uncertainties.

3. The biggest story will be blowing and drifting with high winds even with as little as 1 to 2 inches. Therefore, if you aren't in any advisory or watch, low visibilities will still be a concern.

4. Icing will not be a concern with this storm. Rain, a rain/snow mix, or snow will be the predominant precipitation forms.

5. The fun part is those who get the snow will be almost guaranteed a White Christmas.

6. And finally, thundersnow and convective snows are possible in the heaviest banding areas due to potential upright or slantwise convection.

Personally, I expect a shift NW on the 00z run. But that's pure wishcasting combined with a hope of a more intense system.

[Bob Johnson]

Yeah and if it does take a more NW route it will only be weaker. The northern stream will just suck the southern storm in quicker.