Long range GFS/ECMWF indicating big storm 7-8...

[Bob Johnson]

00z ECMWF although quicker is showing yet another Lakes cutter as low tracks out of the sw and tracks up the OV. Lot's of changes ahead but I like this potential. This would be alot more widespread to. Def bears watching ecp a SW storm moving along thermal boundary which seems to set up from TX-IND. Will see.


12Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_204.shtml

00Z ECMWF:
http://models.easternuswx.com/euro/ECM_00_opNA_P2TS_168.png

[Bob Johnson]

http://models.easternuswx.com/euro/ECM_00_opNA_H50S_168.png

http://models.easternuswx.com/euro/ECM_00_opNA_H50S_180.png

http://models.easternuswx.com/euro/ECM_00_opNA_P2TS_180.png

Much like the GFS the 00z EURO 500mb pattern shows a trough swinging into the Midwest at 168hr-180hr. However much like the GFS it is weak and fast. This storm needs to slow down and deepen for a good storm to spin up the OV. These type of tracks are usually far eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan snowstorms. Will see.

[Brandon Smith]

I've been watching these too but as of now, it's anyone's guess at to where the actual track might be heading. If anything, it will probably be more to the northwest, as all of the systems here lately (as time has gotten closer) have had their tracks progress further that direction.

The latest model runs now show a storm during the first couple days of January, tracking from the Gulf Coast up through the mid-atlantic. It appears it will "closely" follow the previous storm which you are talking about Bob. This could be good as temperatures are still likely to be cold from the passage of the previous system. Just something to keep an eye on.

[Bob Johnson]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p60_138l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_102.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/fp0_084.shtml

The latest GFS and even the 06z NAM are suggesting a deeper and stronger solution with the next storm digging into the Rockies Thursday-early Saturday and tracking up the Great Lakes. Could see a potential winter storm mainly in the Great Lakes region. Some very interesting morning afd's regardless possible winter storm for early part of the weekend. Def bears watching as each model run gets stronger and stronger.

[Dan Cook]

Bob please don't keep making new threads. Use the one you already created until that time frame passes then make a new one.

[Bob Johnson]

Where do u see a thread about Friday/Saturday storm?

[Dan Cook]

http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=14628

[Bob Johnson]

00z NAM shows advisory criteria type snows for Iowa.

[Bob Johnson]

00z NAM is deeper and stronger with 500mb vorcity max at 54hr but then gets crushed due to a +EPO (flat pacific jet and kicker out in pacific NW) There is no closed 850mb low or strong CAA so therefore don't expect this to be a major storm Friday for Midwest/Great Lakes. Could see 1-3 inches for Neberaska/Iowa and strengthens as it becomes more neg tilted across the lower Great Lakes I'd say later Friday or early Saturday (not sure exact timing, it will be critical) with potential ADVISORY type snows for most of Wisconsin, extreme northern Illinois and Michigan (based on 00z GFS 12/25/07) Will see. Time will tell.

Bears watching though

Merry Christmas,

Dominic

[APritchard]

"Bob", not to be rude but are you even reading the posts in this thread that you didn't write?

Also, not to add to the rudeness, but maybe you can make all your comments on a model run in one post. That way we don't get pages added to a thread based on an hours observations. :)

Maybe the mods should just delete this thread?

Haha, I sure have the Christmas spirit don't I? Not tired yet I suppose.