Janurary 3-7: Major West Coast Storm

[Khristian Snyder]

All the medium range models are in very good agreement that a very large series of stroms will impact the west coast over the next several days....with the largest on late friday into saturday.

Everything about this storm is amazing:
There is plenty of moisture coming from the tropics....extremely strong winds to aid orographics, and plenty of dynamics.

Many areas should see several inches of rain and mountains which face into the wind will likely see double digit amounts.

What an incredible 5 day QPF!!:
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/4429/p120i00lk3.th.gif (http://img159.imageshack.us/my.php?image=p120i00lk3.gif)
I will be heading up into the sierras post storm to get some snowboarding in.
NWS Reno has blizzard warnings out and says that snow totals can range from 9 to 11 feet and even more in some areas...with the winds I cant even imagine the snow drifts!

[Brandon Sullivan]

Im in California now, and all locals are tying things down and preparing for this one. Very ominous wording over NWR, mentioning gusts up to 90mph!!

I just hope I can fly back to IL tommorow, but I bet my flight will be cancelled... :(

[Mike Hollingshead]

FRIDAY
STRONG WINDS. SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 7000
FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES...WITH 20 TO 30 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET. HIGHS 37 TO 47. SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. RIDGE
GUSTS UP TO 145 MPH.

LOL that sounds like fun. I'm not seeing this 9-11 feet thing mentioned anywhere though. Dang it, I wish I lived like half as far from there.

[fplowman]

What is Ontario weathers spin on this? Anyone know? lol

[Robert Dewey]

What is Ontario weathers spin on this? Anyone know? lol

Wind gusts to 250mph, 15-30 feet of snow for LA, and some massive wildfires between 3:03PM and 4:16:30PM January 6th, according to the advanced non-mathematical formula and charts. lol

[Jason Branz]

Definitely looks like a doozy. Winds are starting to pick up here in the Sac Valley and the first wave of rain isn't far away. Anyone who travels across the Sierra tomorrow is nuts...I-80 and 50 will be a mess with blowing snow and very strong winds. Looks like you SoCal folks will get some much-needed precip too.

The lastest model runs are starting to back off the QPF a little bit with this first wave, probably due to the very dry airmass in place right now. Tomorrow will be the main wave which should bring that crazy QPF, as posted earlier.

I think I'm heading to Yosemite after this thing passes for some winter photography.

[Khristian Snyder]

Here is a message someone on another forum recieved from the NWS in Reno concerning snowfall in the sierras:

The forecasted totals your are referring to are accumulations just
through Saturday Morning. We do expect portions of the high Sierra in
Mono County to receive 9-11 feet of snow when it's all said and done.
The very highest peaks could see much more than that. We have been briefing
Mono County Emergency Officials and they have activated their Emergency
Operations Center. They would have any information as far emergency
shelters and storm preparations.

Rhett

[Jason Branz]

The atmosphere is moistening up at the surface here in Sac, but down in the San Joaquin valley it's still pretty dry. The orographics with this storm should lead to large accumulations (it's slamming right into the range), but maybe a bit lower for the central Sierra at first due to the present dry airmass. NWS Reno has the following graphic:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/wxgraphics/GraphicCast.php?image=1

I'd fully expect Donner Pass (80) and 50 to be closed for a while tomorrow. But at least the snowpack will be better this year!

[Brandon Sullivan]

Man, just on the other side of the peninsula, down by pebble beach, it looks downright scary!! Black, and huge swells...

San Fran/Monterey has issued an Airport Weather Warning.. Anyone know exactly what that does? Does that cause Airports to cancel flights?

[Mike Smith]

Airports can be closed by local airport management, but only airlines cancel flights.

An airport weather warning is issued by the NWS when a set of circumstances unique to that airport (i.e., it will be different for SFO as compared to, say, ICT or ORD) is expected to cause operational hazards.

[Jason Branz]

This link is good to see CA and NV precip forecasts:

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipForecast.php?cwa=RSA&day=1&img=5

Day 2 (Friday) looks pretty impressive for the Sierra and the coastal ranges.

[Mike Hollingshead]

From Reno office:

MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO INCREASE ONLY FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE STORM. EXPECTING AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW PER
HOUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR 8 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THIS PORTION
OF THE STORM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA.


Well if one can't see in 6-8 inch/hour snowfall rates....I'm sure the 100+ mph gusts won't be doing them any favors. Nuts.

[Joel Wright]

Holy s#@$! 8" per hour? That is unbelievable. Man I'd love to be able to see something like that!

[Mike Kovalchick]

http://kamala.cod.edu/ca/latest.fxus65.KREV.html

NWS Area forecast discussion for the Sierra mentions gusts to 200 mph!

[mcrowther]

San Fransisco over 66 mph gust with numerous wind damage reports coming in already from across the region. Incredible snowfall rates in the Sierra right now, totals will exceed 8 feet by Sunday.

[Robert Dewey]

That would have to be some of the worst winter weather conditions on the planet... I can't even imagine 8 inches per hour... and adding wind gusts around 150MPH? That's completely insane. Does anyone actually live in these affected areas? Talk about a white hurricane.

[Brandon Sullivan]

Well, my flight just got cancelled. So now I'm stuck in California till Sat. or Sun.. Oh well, wont complain about having to miss school!! haha..


Things are really intense out here, we just got put under a Flash Flood Warning.. Storm Force Winds of 60-70 MPH are common. The airport lost power once, and has been flickering on and off all the time.. Lots of urban and small stream flooding... May try to go out and get some footage later today..

[Jason Branz]

Round 2 is over for the most part here in Sac. We had sustained winds that were at least TS force from about 3 a.m. to nearly 3 p.m, with some gusts that pushed 60 mph. Lots of tree damage here downtown, flooding in the 'burbs, and power outages across the city. My building downtown lost power around 9 a.m., so we were dismissed from work for the day (thanks Arnold!). But it was an interesting walk to work this morning, for sure.

The wind was the big story with this storm, at least here in the Valley. Looks like CalTrans is keeping up with the storm up in the high country, as no major roads across the Sierra are closed right now.

[Stephen Levine]

Did anyone see any lightning with these storms?

[Mike Hollingshead]

They need to take Bear Grylls out there right now and drop him on top of the Sierras.

0544 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W TAHOE CITY 39.17N 120.18W
01/04/2008 M163 MPH PLACER CA MESONET

[Jason Branz]

Didn't see any lightning in this area, although there were a few strikes off the North Coast as per Weathertap. We might see some isolated thunder tonight and tomorrow as the colder air aloft pushes through. Lots of downed trees and power poles here in town, numerous reports of trees in houses, etc.

The snow levels have dropped and the white stuff is piling up in the Sierra now. I-80 remains closed through the Sierra with whiteout conditions reported. 3-5 feet expected around 5000 ft or so...the higher resort areas should have plenty of snow after this passes.

Round 3 should move in tomorrow afternoon...not as windy but the moisture tap is still there.

[Grant Gutierrez]

956mb reported in the center of this low and 200kt+ in the jet streak. San Fran has nearly 1 million people w/o power, Mammoth Mountain already has over 2 feet of snow...this system is insane. And yet, we won't see a darn thing on the front range. Good luck to anyone out West...

[Gerrit Gulden]

Initial Concerns from Model runs have definetely come true. Although the lack of Interest with the post

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=14713

It definetely appears that this storm is a monster. Still remember when I first saw the Storm on the models, I imagined the worst.

Today I was in Flagstaff,Arizona, drove out there Wednesday for a Wedding and watched the TWC every day and was impressed about the news of the coming storm. As discussed in this post, there are some amazing wind speeds and snow totals per hour estimated and/or confirmed. You could imagine the concern I immediately had due to my drive today on the I-15 north all the way to Idaho. The Weather conditions were mostly cloudy for the most part till I reached Salt Lake City. From there the winds had started up and were around 15-25mph with gusts to 40. No precipitation till I got into Pocatello,Idaho and then the winds were 20-35mph with gusts to 65mph. It got a little hairy going thru a 7k foot summit but I was able to make it home safely before the snow (if the snow starts).

Currently Winds outside ranging 15-20mph with some stronger gusts. Cold front should be coming in around 2-3am for my area and could see some decent snow. Wasatch Mountains and Central Mountains looking at 1-4 feet of snow. Hopefully the snow could get started soon before the 7 inches of snow already on the ground melts. Crossing my fingers...

BTW- If anyone is interested and the Cameras are up you can go here http://video.dot.ca.gov/ and pick a camera (most are live so you need good internet) and you should see some impressive snow fall rates. The videos are all in California (north to south) and are great quality.

I will report my total Accumulations Tomorrow.

-gerrit

[rdale]

Initial Concerns from Model runs have definetely come true. Although the lack of Interest with the post

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=14713

It definetely appears that this storm is a monster. Still remember when I first saw the Storm on the models, I imagined the worst.

That post was made on the 30th regarding a storm for late on the 31st / early January 1st hitting the west coast... I'm not sure that happened? This seems like more than 48 hours from your outlook?

[Gerrit Gulden]

http://video.dot.ca.gov/asx/d3-meyers-50.asx

Lake tahoe Live Camera looking at the 50 at Meyers. Wow, cant make anything out except for the fact that it is a Highway and a car passes thru every 10 minutes and all you see is lights, the rest is White snow blowing everywhere. Definetely looks like a 3-5 inch snow rate per hour. WOW....

-gerrit

[Gerrit Gulden]

That post was made on the 30th regarding a storm for late on the 31st / early January 1st hitting the west coast... I'm not sure that happened? This seems like more than 48 hours from your outlook?

If I am not Mistaken this is the same storm on the forecast models that day. If not I apologize.

-gerrit

[Khristian Snyder]

im on my way out the door right now to go to Mammoth Mountain in the sierras to play in some fresh snow....many many feet of snow

Snow ratios up there this evening are 18:1 and several feet have fallen. Unfortunately, plows can keep up on the main highway thus it is now closed in both directions starting in Bishop....hopefully it will open back up once im there tomorrow....

[Jason Harris]

I've been living in East Lansing, MI but I go back to visit family on vacation in Sacramento, CA, and I was lucky enough to enjoy the wind storm of January 4th, 2008. Along with my brother, I took a walk to check out the damage: sign down, fence blown over, edge of roof peeled hanging over balcony of residential club house, torn flag, and tree blown on top of business causing some roof damage. Wind gusts probably in upper 60s we figured--as others have noted 69-70 were recorded in overall area. Here are some pics (first post by the way, please be forgiving if I'm breaking any rules--I looked up pics & images in the faq and seems like this is ok and pics are shrunk enough)