Severe winter weather conditions possible in Iowa this week!

[Craig Maire II]

Looks like very strong winds, 1 to 3 inches of snow and very cold temps will accompany a cold front as it swings through Iowa on Tuesday. Attention then attention turns to another strong system that may bring accumulating snowfall to portions of Iowa by Thursday and Friday

DMX Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/?n=outlooks

[Darrin Rasberry]

The one on Th/Fr looks to be weaker than I expected, with the T/W storm stronger. Forecast is calling for blowing snow on the roads, but there probably should be some additional concerns for a significant meltoff due to the 40-50 degree temps around the state. The water covering the roads and running down the streets like crazy is going to freeze over to a dangerous, thin sheet tonight, and the blowing snow is going to make dangerous spots hard to see on the road. This could be compounded a little with wherever rain decides to fall tonight, especially on large interstate roads that wouldn't have otherwise suffered end-to-end from a brief meltoff.

This edition of the Arctic Dip doesn't seem to be as bad as the last two, with high temps "only" as low as the lower twenties this time around, but the wind over the next few days is expected to be horrendous. I'm actually thankful it's coming, since even just a second day of 40+ might've caused some local low-lying floods. From the past two years I've witnessed a much more manageable meltoff as average temps rise into the lower thirties, contrary to the sudden spike seen today.

Hopefully there will be only one more of these nasties, but early March always seems to slap a surprise or two, so we'll see. Here's to hoping February ends the mess and brings on an ugly, terrible, and photographic tornadic Iowa (over properly insured and unpopulated cornfields, of course :D)

[rdale]

Looks like very strong winds, 1 to 3 inches of snow and very cold temps will accompany a cold front

If you consider 1-3 inches of snow with low wind chills to be severe - you haven't lived in Iowa very long :)

[Craig Maire II]

1 to 3 inches of snow accompanied by winds gusting to 50 mph and single digit temps/subzero temps (tomorrow night) seems severe to me :D A winter storm watch may be issued later today so I guess some of the folks at the Quad Cities and Lacrosse NWS offices also think we may get some severe winter weather :D I've lived in this state 31 years to long :)

From the Lacrosse Wisconsin Special Weather Statement:

THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINTER WEATHER ELEMENTS ADDS UP TO A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION FOR ALL AREAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. IF
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...DURATION...
AND LOCATION...VARIOUS WINTER STORM RELATED WATCHES...WARNINGS...
AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE DAY TODAY TO HIGHLIGHT
SPECIFIC THREATS...TIMES...AND LOCATIONS FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HIGH-
IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

Also, can someone please add Iowa and Minnesota to the thread title?

[Joel Wright]

I think what'll be interesting around these parts is the sharp drop in temps tomorrow. Most of the models support relatively balmy conditions in the morning, with temps in the 40s plummeting to the single digits by dusk accompanied by below zero windchills. Gotta love that!

[Darrin Rasberry]

50 degree 1-day temp swing cracked my motherfriggin windshield /=

[Joel Wright]

Well DVN just upgraded to blizzard warning for all of our immediate area. I highly disagree with this, as there will not be much snowfall in our immediate area. 2-4" at best. Many areas will likely only get an inch or two. With the existing snowpack melting down to near nothing, and in areas where it hasn't it will be like a rock when it refreezes, I don't see the above amount of snow causing severe enough problems to warrant the blizzard warning.

I hate to say it, but the hype this will cause will likely be laughed at by tomorrow night when all that materializes is a wind-driven light snow event. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it...

[Danny Neal]

Looking at a 1 inch snow 50+ mph wind event.....if it wasn't going to be so cold I wouldn't mind it.

[Josh Richardson]

Yeah Craig ya might have jumped on the "severe" winter weather term a bit quick there but for most our area we will see a tad bit of snow and some pretty decent winds. The latest WRF/NAM is certainly showing the more "severe" winter weather to be in the DVN forecast area hence the new upgrade to blizzard warning. For us up in Northern IA I would expect winds gusting around the low 40 mph range with an inch or two of snow.

[Josh Richardson]

Well DVN just upgraded to blizzard warning for all of our immediate area. I highly disagree with this, as there will not be much snowfall in our immediate area. 2-4" at best. Many areas will likely only get an inch or two. With the existing snowpack melting down to near nothing, and in areas where it hasn't it will be like a rock when it refreezes, I don't see the above amount of snow causing severe enough problems to warrant the blizzard warning.

I hate to say it, but the hype this will cause will likely be laughed at by tomorrow night when all that materializes is a wind-driven light snow event. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it...

You could be right about snowfall amounts, however, even if there is light snow for the duration that is expected than it would meet the below criteria. Of course similiar to DMX it really could go either way, blowing snow advisory or blizzard warning.

BLIZZARD WARNING -- A Blizzard Warning will be issued when the following conditions are forecast to last at least 3 hours. Falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility to < 1/4 mile AND sustained winds or frequent gusts > 35 mph.

[J Tobias]

Well DVN just upgraded to blizzard warning for all of our immediate area. I highly disagree with this, as there will not be much snowfall in our immediate area. 2-4" at best. Many areas will likely only get an inch or two. With the existing snowpack melting down to near nothing, and in areas where it hasn't it will be like a rock when it refreezes, I don't see the above amount of snow causing severe enough problems to warrant the blizzard warning.

I hate to say it, but the hype this will cause will likely be laughed at by tomorrow night when all that materializes is a wind-driven light snow event. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it...


I agree with you on this.

At 10 the local news explain why we were under a Blizzard warning and why it's not going to be as bad as what people think when they think of a "Blizzard" conditions.

The DVN office could of went either way with this because I believe this event will meet both criterias, but honestly I would of stuck with the blowing snow advisory and not hyped this up.

[Craig Maire II]

Ok folks next time I'll use the word adverse...lol looks like we are in for some ADVERSE winter weather today!:D lol Though if snow totals do exceed the 1 to 3 inches expected things could get a little more interesting :eek:

P.S. Keokuk Iowa is currently 55F with a blizzard warning for later today, expecting around a 40F drop in temps today! wow!

[Josh Richardson]

Ok folks next time I'll use the word adverse...lol looks like we are in for some ADVERSE winter weather today!:D lol Though if snow totals do exceed the 1 to 3 inches expected things could get a little more interesting :eek:

P.S. Keokuk Iowa is currently 55F with a blizzard warning for later today, expecting around a 40F drop in temps today! wow!

Yep, your right Craig...Here is a great example of the differential between where the cold and warm air is right now.

Current conditions: Keokuk 54F South Wind of 8 mph

Mason City 16F NW Wind of 30 mph gusts of 37/WC -4

[Craig Maire II]

Temps have plummeted from the upper 30s to the lower 20s here in Cedarfalls and the winds are howling with gusts to near 40 mph. Knocked my guard shacks sign down a few times and blew my door open :eek:

[rdale]

Ok folks next time I'll use the word adverse...lol looks like we are in for some ADVERSE winter weather today!

Or next time - tell us exactly what you're forecasting ;)

AKA - use actual numbers in your description...

[Craig Maire II]

Rdale wrote "Or next time - tell us exactly what you're forecasting ;)

AKA - use actual numbers in your description..."

Will do! :D Sorry if I came off as a little cocky etc. yesterday Rdale had to much sugar and not enough sleep...LOL Now that I have had time to think about it (and have heard from my peers :D) I probably should have used a different word choice than severe.

[rdale]

I probably should have used a different word choice than severe.

Or no words at all... "Severe" winter weather to you may not be "severe" to your neighbor. That's why a good forecast has actual numbers -- "Winds to 50mph, Wind Chills to 20 below" etc.

[Jeff Miller]

Speaking of actual numbers...

Sitting at 2 degrees. FROPA occured last evening. This morning, had wind gusts to 55 MPH, resulting in branches down and tree damage in scattered areas. A band of moderate to heavy snow moved in reducing visibilities to near zero for a couple of hours, and dropping an estimated 1 1/2" to 2" of snow in the heaviest band, however the amounts are hard to measure with the snow moving as fast as freeway traffic. Impressive cold air advection continues - but snowfall itself is tapering down.

On a note of interest, a snownado-type vortex scooted across an open field as well - with strong short lived rotation much like a dust devil, revealed by the blowing snow. Interesting little vortex it was!

[Craig Maire II]

Rdale wrote:""Severe" winter weather to you may not be "severe" to your neighbor"

I forgot about that and hastily put this thread together. Anyhow it is now 11F with winds gusting to at least 36 mph here in Cedarfalls and the Storm Prediction Center has stated that in some snow bands in northern Iowa we could recieve 1 inch+ snow falls per hour!

[Darrin Rasberry]

There's been a roughly one hundred degree swing from the low on Friday to the high on Sunday back to the current temperature here in Ames (5 to 50 to 2).

Incidentally, the hairline crack that was half a foot long yesterday now extends over most of my windshield. If someone's playing pranks on me, they forgot to check the door; I stupidly left my car unlocked after I unloaded all the groceries yesterday :D

Running my finger over the crack (stupid, yes) shows no indication that the crack is anything but internal. The winds were dead here yesterday and Sunday, so there's no indication something could've blown into it, and nothing hit my windshield while driving. There's no "splintering" that sometimes comes with an impact, either, and there's no indentation telltale of a crack on the outside of my windshield. Although it might be a coincidence, I'm beginning to concrete my conclusion that this windshield (replaced in Texas after hailstorm damage reported by the dealer that sold the vehicle to me) suffered this crack and the sudden subsequent extension due to the absolutely wild temperature change.

The roads here aren't covered at all, but are damp with the meltoff yesterday. It's all ice. I'm beginning to wonder how safe it is to drive on this.