1/31/08-2/1/08 Winter Storm: OK/KS/MO/IL/IN/OH/MI

[Brandon Sullivan]

Surprised no one has started a thread about this yet.

Long story short, a low will eject East Northeast into the Ohio Valley.. Accumulations up to 8-10 inches are likely Northwest of the low. Models are shaky with the path of the system. The WRF is varying the path and is pretty inconsistent..

It will be worth watching to see if Convection on the Deep south can get going, which could effectively limit the moisture feed somewhat, which could somewhat cut the snow totals by a few inches..

[Dan Robinson]

Classic Appalachian 'cold air dam' ice storm shaping up with this also - with high QPF painted over subfreezing temps through midday Friday for the eastern mountains and the Shenandoah Valley/Blue Ridge.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Winter storm warning is out for us calling for 5-8 inches of snow with fairly gusty winds as well. Maybe interesting to say the least, but I'd rather see tornadoes.

[Chris Wilburn]

Might need to add KS and OK to the discussion. Winter Storm Warning is in effect for a large portion of NE OK and much of eastern KS. The forecast is calling for 5-8 inches in portions of SE KS and extreme NE OK with lower amounts south towards Tulsa around 2-4 inches. The track of the 850mb disturbance should be in western OK by 12z tomorrow and NE OK by 18z. It looks like between noon and evening tomorrow should be the time frame for the best accumulating snow for NE OK and SE KS. I have not looked at points east of here but I am sure it will be more of the same of what were are going to recieve here.

[Chris Vagasky]

Looking at the 0z NAM for DTX on Bufkit right now...:eek:

Something doesn't seem quite right.

Showing snowfall rates of >2 inches per hour for several (5) hours and total snowfall of nearly 2 feet!

I'm a little shaky about that run's output. I'd still put SE Michigan in a zone of about 8-10 inches of snow.

[Matthew Fischer]

Winter Storm Watch for most counties in Chicago county warning area. Expecting 1 to 4 inches in the northwestern counties, 4 to 7 inches along Lake Michigan and then south between Joliet and Kankakee, down to La Salle. Then 6 to 9 inches south of Kankakee.

I would love if this storm tracked maybe 50 miles north of what it is now on the models. More snow for Chicago area and more people moaning about how the weather sucks and how cold it is outside.

[Andrew Francis]

Not really sure what is going on here in OK so far... Temps falling extremely slow its now (1:00am) and the temperature is 38F. Wind is picking up, and we had a wave of light rain come through earlier.

This is weird the way this system is coming out, it has a huge dry pocket in itself over nearly all of Oklahoma... And it appears the precipitation is decipating nearly everywhere with it.

Not really sure what is going on with this? Forecast is saying from 6am - 6pm in Oklahoma is when the heavy snow will arrive. I am confused when looking @ radar because it appears the system is moving fairly quickly and not putting down much precip?

Anyone else know anything or have any predictions?



Oh and im in Stillwater, OK (N. central ok)

[Chris Wilburn]

The 1006mb surface low is located near SW OK into NW TX near Childress and the 850mb disturbance/low is located in SW OK at this time. Surface temps. are still fairly warm east of I-35 and even points west of I-35 until you get to say NW OK and SW KS. Surface temps. drop off fairly rapidly in these areas opposed to areas just west of I-35 and east of I-35. There appears to be a cold front running from Wichita to just south of Pratt extending down into NW OK. I think later on this morning as the cold front moves further east into OK along with the 850mb disturbance moving out of SW OK into central/Eastern Ok we will begin to see heavy snow with accumulations in the range of what has been forecasted. It appears that with the track of the 850mb low being a bit further south than earlier forecasted that the area of concern may be from Stillwater to Tulsa and points east instead of SE KS and extreme NE OK that was predicted earlier. These areas will still get their fair share, but I have my eye on the Highway 412 corridor from Stillwater to Siloam Springs, Arkansas as an area to watch. This is also where forecasted higher snowfall amounts are reflected in the new run of the NAM that came out at 00z. Earlier runs of the NAM had the 850mb low further north and had the KS/OK border into SE KS getting hit hard, but that seems like it may have changed now, but who knows. I may be wrong on all of this, but this is what I am forecasting to see if it holds true or not. I would say later on this morning say between 7am-10am things will begin to get interesting and stay that way until near 00z when things should taper off.

[Andrew Francis]

reflectivity lightning up nicely all over NW OK and W OK and into TX panhandle.

looking better for a good snowstorm here in Stillwater. I just hope temps can fall in time for the main precip core





EDIT:

forget this storm... LAME

[Andrew Geil]

Aye aye aye... look at all the snow coming. Gonna suck tonight; as I have to travel from north-central Illinois to Springfield tonight about 8pm. Hopefully the snow will hold out until then, but ya never know... :)

They're calling for upwards to a foot now for central Illinois, plus strong winds. Gonna be nasty.

[Andrew Herron]

So, um, yeah. Looks like we're going to be under the gun here. Current guidance is showing about 8-12 inches here in Washtenaw and Wayne counties by 7PM EST... And I just got clearance to have the day off!

[Chris C Sanner]

Here's a pic I just snapped from outside the student union here at OU on my Camera Phone visibility actually is a bit better than it just was, couldn't see 100 yards in front of you...

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Here in Chicago-land area can be a 4-6 inch event. Snow started light this morning (9 AM) and is picking up to moderate snow ATTM near Calumet City, IL.

To the SE of Chicago, especially into Indiana, snow should be heavier in the 6-12" plus range.

Leaving work early today myself...

[John Farley]

Looking at this morning's runs, the RUC puts the heaviest snow just NW of the STL area, NAM right over it, and GFS just to its southeast. So we have the usual disagreement among models. Two main questions for our area are 1) does the snow cut off due to the effects of the gulf coast convection, and if so, for how long? and 2) where does the deformation zone set up? Right now there is some gap between the WAA snow in eastern MO and the deformation zone snow over OK and far SW MO, perhaps owing to the effects of the convection to the south. However, this is starting to show signs of filling in near SGF, so we'll see. The potential is definitely there for heavy snow in the STL area, but whether it happens will depend on the above issues.

Here in Edwardsville it has been snowing since about 11:30, but mostly quite light with an occasional heavier burst. Still not more than a half inch accumulation, probably a little less.

[Andrew Francis]

Here in Stillwater, OK - got heavy snow this morning for abour 2 hours and that was it... End result came out to just about 2 inches maybe a little more.

Actually I'm pretty dissapointed with this system. For once the Low trackt far enough south that it didn put a giant precip shield over Kansas unlike every other storm so far this winter. It was setup to hit northern OK and into extreme SE kansas into MO...

The convection to the southeast seemed to destroy the precip we got... Temps didn't fall to freezing until after it had been raining for a while and after they did fall there was a giant dry pouch in the system and it was directly over all of OK it seemed except NW OK.





I give this system a big fat FAIL

[Dan Robinson]

STL is a mess right now. Earlier, I checked the traffic camera network and saw a car slide off I-64 live.

http://stormhighway.com/blog/stl013108a.jpg http://stormhighway.com/blog/stl013108b.jpg

[Joel Wright]

Only supposed to get 1-3" of snow here, but we've already got a good inch and it's snowing quite heavily at the moment. The banding nature on radar makes me question the models somewhat as to the amount forecast for NW IL. I'm thinking more along the lines of 4-5" where I'm at. Chicago may really get nailed with this one.

[Joel Wright]

Really looking like the models (especially the GFS) dropped the ball on this one for the western fringes of this system. What was earlier forecasted to be a 1-3" snow is looking like 6"+ easily now. Up to 4" has fallen here already, with another 7-9hrs left of snowfall. According to the 00z RUC the heaviest snows have yet to develop as well. DVN is considering upgrading to warning for it's eastern areas.

Heavier bands of snow seem to be getting better organized over much of IL now, down where the heavier snows will eventually fall. Looks like this is the beginning of the heavier snows that'll eventually dump on Chicagoland on up into MI later on tonight...

[Jim Zandonai]

Looks like the LOT moved the Warnings over to the west by a county or two..we are still in the Advisory area here but looks like we'll be on the higher end of the totals here.. quite an impressive storm with much more moisture then the last ..very impressive damaging wind Squall line moved through Gulf states and Alabama area earlier..really makes you ancy for Spring here .

[John Farley]

Here in Edwardsville we now have just under 2 inches, with a heavy burst about to move in. Overall in eastern MO the deformation zone still looks a little showery and disorganized, but if it fills in we could get quite a bit more. If not, we could end up on the low end of what is predicted. I agree with others that it looks like the track of heaviest snow may be a bit north and west of what was originally predicted.

The St. Louis NWS office has mentioned the possibility of thundersnow in a couple of their forecast discussions, but thus far I see no evidence of that at all. Still hoping, though!

[Jesse Risley]

I'm currently sitting right at about 4". It looks like there are more lulls between snow bands than what was previously expected for central and SE Illinois. I still think locations along and SE of I-57 could easily see 8+ inches.

[Jarrod Cook]

Currently only 2.5" in Peoria so far. SE of I-57 some areas are getting freezing rain and sleet mixed in, which may hamper the totals a bit there (mainly south of I-70).

[Jacque Tiegs]

I'm here just outside of Detroit and it's the calm before the storm...schools are now posting closings..and most will decide by 4:30AM. So far there is nothing going on here and it's not expeted to develop until between midnight and 3AM.

[Joel Wright]

Ended up with 5.7" here at my house in Erie.

Some reports of a foot coming out of central IL now. Springfield measures 11". Looks like the Chicago area is approaching double-digit totals now too.

Impressive storm!

[Andrew Herron]

About 4" on the ground now as the dry slot finally makes it way into NW Wayne County. It's probably going to take another hour to 90 minutes for the backside to swing by and dump about another 4.

People at work might be scoffing now, but they only have to wait a little bit to be thankful we all stayed home!

[Matthew Fischer]

Well just measured around my backyard, we got 8 inches so far, but we are going to get more. Got maybe 2 more hours of snow left here in Westmont. Should be a great time getting to work tonight, hopefully all the main roads are plowed. Might have to call Mr. Plow.

[Dan Cook]

We've got around 10 inches here; snow's lightly falling still. Time to start the snow blower!

[Andrew Herron]

Well so much for SE Michigan being in the bullseye. Looks like the low is going to track more North and the dryslot has punched in pretty hard. Another inch throughout the day is all the more we're going to get here.

[Matthew Fischer]

Andrew you can come over to Chicago and take all the snow you want. We have plenty of snow!!

Looking radar looks like the lake effect is starting to take place now for at least in SE WI. But most likely the snow will come south and will get another half inch to 2 inches!

[APritchard]

Don't really feel like going outside yet today, but the LSR's surrounding my home put Urbana at anywhere between 8-10 inches. My official looking out the window measurement I'd guess we're closer to 8 inches.

[Danny Neal]

Well 10 inches of snow later and 3 hours of snow blowing....I am finally back in the warmth of my house. Mmmm winter.....how dreadful.

[Dan Robinson]

Beckley, WV stayed below 32F nearly all night last night, allowing the freezing rain to continue until dawn. I took a short drive up there to check out the black ice on bridges (and a few other places I didn't expect). Some photos and a couple of video clips here (http://stormhighway.com/blog/feb108a.shtml).

http://stormhighway.com/2008/feb1ice.jpg ("http://stormhighway.com/blog/feb108a.shtml)

[Robert Dewey]

We really got hammered here in southeast MI... Forecast called for 6-12 inches, and we ended up with 2-3 inches. LOL

[John Farley]

We ended up with seven and a half inches here in Edwardsville, Illinois. The 8.4 inches in St. Louis was, if the information in yesterday's Post-Dispatch was correct, the heaviest 24-hour snowfall in about 15 years in St. Louis (a sure sign of how mild recent winters have been). The storm remained weak and disorganized until around 11:30 last night, when snowfall over the STL area rapidly intensified, producing rates over 2 inches per hour for a while.

I have made up a Web page on this storm with my own observations, some photos, and some Web links with additional information on the storm as it affected the STL area. The Web page may be found at:

http://www.johnefarley.com/snow20108.htm

[rdale]

We really got hammered here in southeast MI... Forecast called for 6-12 inches, and we ended up with 2-3 inches. LOL

I did blow it for my eastern stations - I said 3-6" and only ended up with 2-4"... Not nearly as bad as other forecasts though :> Won't mention names, but some said Hillsdale/Branch region would get 10-15 inches and they ended up with 4-6 :eek:

VERY surprised to see Chicago-land get the most out of this event.

[Joel Wright]

Yeah, it appears the whole system tracked further west than progged. Areas that were supposed to get dumped on ended up on the eastern side of the heavier snow, and areas to the west that weren't supposed to get much at all got quite a bit. That seems to be the trend this winter so far. Models seem to keep things a little too fast and hence further to the east. Usually the storm system ends up slower and hooking more to the left.

Of course next time we'll all be expecting a storm to track a bit further to the west and it'll end up tracking as progged lol.

[rdale]

NAM had the path right, but the QPF horribly wrong... GFS had the path wrong but better QPF. It's amazed me how HORRIBLE the NAM WRF has been this winter. Who could have imagined that just years ago it was gospel. Now it's pretty close to useless... MANY entities have busted repeatedly this winter on it, yet still rely almost entirely on the output?!?

[Danny Neal]

Snowfall started here hours before predicted. By the time the main synoptic scale snow was falling we had already accumulated 2 to even 3 inches in some places. Some of the areas directly near the lake (near north side) had lake enhancement, while the heavier band in the western suburbs was from that earlier heavy snow band that just seemed to persist through out the day. Got about 10 here on the south side while NW and NC IN really didn't get anything. I think Valpo only received 4.1 inches or something.

[rdale]

Still got a good half-foot in that area...

MICHIGAN CITY LA PORTE IN 10.0 MEDIA
1 N GRANGER ST JOSEPH IN 8.5 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROLLING PRAIRIE LA PORTE IN 7.9 TRAINED SPOTTER
8 ESE LA PORTE LA PORTE IN 7.5 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N SOUTH BEND ST JOSEPH IN 7.5 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 WSW NORTH WEBSTER KOSCIUSKO IN 6.7 NWS EMPLOYEE
BENTON HARBOR BERRIEN MI 6.5 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 N NORTH WEBSTER KOSCIUSKO IN 6.3 NWS
1 E WARSAW KOSCIUSKO IN 6.2 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 NW GOSHEN ELKHART IN 6.2 COCORAHS
GIRARD BRANCH MI 6.0 TRAINED SPOTTER
BUCHANON BERRIEN MI 6.0 TRAINED SPOTTER
AUBURN DE KALB IN 6.0 EMERGENCY MNGR

[Joel Wright]

I agree about the NAM/WRF performing crappy this season. It used to be the model of choice within the 84hr timeframe. It has a tough time resolving important features up until about 48hrs out. Even then it's sometimes a little slow on the uptake compared to other models. Hell, even the NGM fairs better than the NAM sometimes lol.

As far as the GFS (operational), it has the wonderful habit of keying in on a storm system 150hrs out and staying fairly consistent. Then during a window between 72-96hrs out it'll forecast something completely different (often much weaker), only to re-establish it's previous way of thinking within the 72hr timeframe. Almost every major storm this season has been dealt this issue with the GFS. Overall though, it's been pretty good this season. For an operational model, it's performed pretty damn well beyond 100hrs. Much of the time the large scale features were nailed fairly early on.

[Heidi Farrar]

We could count AR in the winter storm activity from 1/31. :) We received two rounds (initial blast from between 8:30-11:00am and wrap-around beginning about 12 hrs later) totaling 6", with about 1/2" of sleet on top of the first round. We never did see 6" on the ground at once, though, due to the sleet and a warm-up mid-day.

I was pleased with the GFS, NAM & WRF's handling of this for us; they all seemed to come into pretty good agreement right toward the end, and so there were no huge surprises.

Here are a couple of photos from our woods; the wrap-around snow flocked the trees very beautifully:

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/020108pond1cr.jpg

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/020108pond2cr.jpg