2/5/08-2/6/08 WINTER STORM NOW: KS,MO,IA,NE,IL,WI,MN,IN,MI,OH

[Joel Wright]

Figure I'd start a NOW thread since the winter weather aspect of the storm is becoming more widespread now.

A large shield of heavy precip has moved across much of MO into parts of IA and now IL through the morning hours, dumping up to an inch of rain on KC. Meanwhile, just north into far northern MO and southern IA a small area of heavy snow fell. This area of precip is expanding as it pushes eastward. Back to the west, the precip across KS is lighter, but with the upper energy hanging back still, this whole are should get invigorated later today, and especially tonight.

Here in Erie, a mix of sleet and snow has moved in. Most likely this will change over to rain here shortly, since it's still too warm to support snow. Thickness values are still rather high, with 850mb temps still hovering around 3°C.

The true snow/mix line is out in eastern IA, and extends down to near the KC area. Some areas in northwest MO northwest of that line are still experiencing some light rain, but any burst of moderate precip would rapidly change it over to snow.

The snow/mix line should push ever so slightly southeast with each passing hour.

[Robert Dewey]

Not sure what we're going to get between the Detroit and Flint area. NAM is predicting incredible QPF amounts, though, for a lot of areas.

I've always had trouble with these type of events... the latest 18Z NAM shows us kissing the 0C to -3C 850MB isotherm, which would indicate snow to me; but that's marginal temperatures at best, and definitely wouldn't take into account any warm layers that sneak in.

Both NAM and GFS are trending slightly colder, with the 18Z NAM continuing the trend.

[Mike Kovalchick]

Temps have dropped to 35 in Lansing. Looks like the fun should arrive here towards midnight. 18Z NAM paints about 2" liquid equivalent to fall-mostly snow-especially Lansing Northward. The NAM QPF fields have been overblown most of the Winter it seems but you would think just by chance it would get it right sooner or later! :eek:

[Robert Dewey]

From what I've found, personally speaking, is that the NAM is usually 2-3 times actual amounts. So, I fully expect at least 0.75 to 1.15 inches of QPF over much of southern lower MI.

[Joel Wright]

I'm getting a little concerned with my own forecast at the moment. We weren't really supposed to have any snow until after sunset, and yet it's been snowing heavily now for a half hour. Picked up a quick 1/2". If this were to stay all snow it's downright scary how much could fall looking at all of the model QPF forecasts. NAM/GFS paint 1.50" right over me...

[Mike Kovalchick]

From what I've found, personally speaking, is that the NAM is usually 2-3 times actual amounts. So, I fully expect at least 0.75 to 1.15 inches of QPF over much of southern lower MI.

Upstream radars look very impressive to say the least. Perhaps the NAM might be on to something? I see the local NWS calling for upto 9" and locally higher amounts. Climatology in this area would tend to rule out much over a foot except very locally. I assume the OZ runs will tell the tale.

[cstrunk]

In St. Joseph we picked up about 1-2" of snow/sleet earlier in the day. It then switched to rain and it's been lightly raining or misting since then. We're sitting at 32 degrees and the light rain is starting to freeze on trees. I'm sure it will be switching back to snow within the next hour or two. A little heavier precip looks to be heading our way... but as has been mentioned, the storm hasn't wound up for round 2 yet, and I expect it to look a lot more menacing for this area by 7-8 PM.

[Robert Dewey]

Upstream radars look very impressive to say the least. Perhaps the NAM might be on to something? I see the local NWS calling for upto 9" and locally higher amounts. Climatology in this area would tend to rule out much over a foot except very locally. I assume the OZ runs will tell the tale.

I hope it is!

As DTX notes, there is quite a deep (and very strong) layer of instability present... and with winds stationary to the boundary, this is a perfect setup for a stationary band of extremely heavy snowfall.

DTX is going with around 8 inches here, but notes that amounts could be MUCH higher if such a band sets up - which is exactly what the 18Z NAM is hinting at.

EDIT: 18Z NAM snow algorithms are through the roof with +18 inch amounts (though, I've seen this before without verification) - http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

I'll be more inclined to jump on the bandwagon if the 18Z GFS continues with a cold trend.

[Chad Cowan]

EDIT: 18Z NAM snow algorithms are through the roof with +18 inch amounts (though, I've seen this before without verification) - http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

I'll be more inclined to jump on the bandwagon if the 18Z GFS continues with a cold trend.

I was about to post the exact same map... that's a scary sight for us here in Chicago. I'm not sure my shoes can handle any more of this. I might need to brush up on my pole vaulting skills to get over these snow packed curbs.

I'm hesitant to jump on the big totals here, the 12z NAM put the +6" totals north of Chicago and I'm a bit wary of these off hour runs.

[Joel Wright]

The heavy snow from earlier rapidly switched back over to just rain and sleet once the higher reflectivities moved on an hour and a half ago or so. We still picked up a quick .7" of snow in less than an hour. For a time the flakes were half-dollar size. Very cool to see. (Of course as I type this some snowflakes are suddenly mixing in again lol).

NWS DVN is forecasting a band of up to 18" of snow right through the heart of the area, from southern IA into northern IL. That seems a little bullish, but if we can get some thunder involved then I guess anything's possible.

Precip behind the first wave has really decreased, but the main upper support is still way out in New Mexico! I expect a few more waves of precip before the whole momma shoots out late tonight. That's when things should really come together.

[Jim Zandonai]

Well looking at the current radar I see a huge amount of thunderstorms to our south and some snow to the north..So far we had about 2" . What I see though are huge gaps in the snow shield over NW MO and around there..that means time without snow..Now It could fill in which is the idea behind the huge snowfall totals and extended period of snow..History shows me that whenever we have had amount of a foot or near that its been a steady snow shield of moderate to heavy snow with no let ups.. I just dont see it getting to a foot here.. yes I see energy behind it but most of that huge swath is almost east of us so am I missing something ?
I could be wrong we could get a snow burst etc but that area to the west is really going to have to fil lin and increase in intensity ..for now I'll stick with the lower end of the forecast around 9

[Joel Wright]

00z models rolling in looking pretty ominous. They continue to slow the storm down, keeping heavy snow in place longer for the areas impacted. I completely agree with DVN and other surrounding offices with the 12-18" snowfall potential.

The majority of the upper level energy will finally kick out later tonight, and develop a very intense, banded area of heavy snow in the deformation zone area from NW MO into IA. This will then SLOWLY progress eastward laying down a lot of snow in it's path. The heaviest snow will probably fall from Williamsburg IA to Rockford IL, to the extreme southeast tip of WI. My particular area will probably see a foot of snow, maybe a bit more if thunder gets involved. The heaviest may end up just a tad north of my exact location, but I'll be damn close.

Already heavier precip is beginning to organize in KS. This is the sign that the upper energy is beginning it's kick eastward.

Hey Jim, you may well be in the heart of where the heaviest snow falls man!

[Jim Zandonai]

Well Joel you may be right.. Winter Weather forecasting and Snowfall amounts have always been a headache in forecasting..but with all that incredible action to the south its hard to concentrate on this event..
Good Lord what an event ..esp for FEB. The bad news is there are injuries and fatalities..
Lets see how many days to Spring ?

[David Draun]

Wow, this system has really slowed down, I guess that happens when a low begins to close off. The main snow event for areas east of I-39 isn't supposed to start until much later tomorrow morning. Mostly rain and sleet changing to light snow overnight for the Chicago metro.

[Robert Dewey]

I'm not sure that it has really slowed down, rather it looks like more emphasis is being placed on deformation snows rather than the initial surge of moisture. Convection really limited the northward extent of precipitation this evening.

All of the models agree on very heavy snows setting up from NW MO northeastward through NY by the time it's all said and done.

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

[cstrunk]

I love reading you guys' enthusiasm about the strength of this snowstorm, but I really think the convection has harmed my chances here in St. Joseph of getting 10+ out of this storm. I've been watching the snow in KS get organized for an eternity now (like 5 hours, lol), and just recently has it been making it into the St. Joseph area. Every time it looks like it's ready to build in it falls apart again and builds up in KS. I'm waiting to see if and when it will build up and stay strong long enough here to give us the really big snows before it is out of here (which will still be a while). I think other places will have a better chance at 9-10+ rather than St. Joseph. I guess I should just go to sleep and see what happens in the morning...

[Mike Kovalchick]

About 30 in Lansing with freezing drizzle. Picked up about 1" of snow/sleet/freezing rain overnight-very sloppy mess.

Yesterdays NAM runs obviously bombed again with QPF totals only a fraction of what verified. The GFS didn't do much better. (Make mental note-the next High Risk day...count on convection messing up the moisture return into the cold air!!)

Still..the 2nd round of the storm looks to be quite respectable for this area but may now focus the heaviest snow just North of the main Southern Lower MI cities.

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_48HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif

[David Draun]

Still 10-12 inches with local amounts of 14 expected for the Chicago Metro, especially northern sections. NIU is closed today, so I'm happy. Radar is showing some nice convective banding of snow just exploding to the south and pushing north. I wonder if there will be some thunder and lightning with all this.

[Mark Manchester]

Snow is finally winding down here in far NW MO and we have roughly 6-7 inches on the ground, with reports of 8-9 inches roughly 30 miles south of here in northern Holt Co. Tapered off to flurries now with no additional accumulation expected.

[rdale]

Yesterdays NAM runs obviously bombed again with QPF totals only a fraction of what verified. The GFS didn't do much better. (Make mental note-the next High Risk day...count on convection messing up the moisture return into the cold air!!)

I'm not sure that convection down south was the cause... The NAM has been USELESS this winter, and it still has 16" coming today with no southern convection (NWS is forecasting up to 14" for Lansing) yet I'm calling for at the most 8 inches.

[Joel Wright]

5.8" so far here in E-town. We've received 3.6" here since 6am, so it's finally really beginning to come down. We had sleet mixing in as late as 6:30am this morning. I should mention that the snowfall so far has averaged less than 10:1 snow to water ratio. It's a classic "white cement" dumping.

Some areas northwest of me in eastern IA have already picked up 8-11" with snow still falling. A spotter in Cedar Rapids recently reported 11.8" down.

So far the thundersnow hasn't really materialized. I've only heard of one report so far just west of the QC about 3hrs ago. The snow is still somewhat convective in nature, just not quite vigorous enough to break into the thunder producing threshold I guess.

With almost 6" here and another 5-6hrs of snow on the way and snow to water ratios climbing higher I'm still expecting 8-10".

[Robert Dewey]

Judging by radar and 12Z models, NWS doesn't seem to bring the heavier accumulations far enough south.

FWIW... the NAM was only off by 2-3 inches for storm total snow across KS. So while the 15 inches it outputs for LAN might be a bit high, a foot wouldn't surprise me.

[rdale]

A foot would BLOW me away in Lansing... I'm thinking 6 inches at the most.

[Mike Kovalchick]

Looks like an intense band should pivot through the Lansing area around Noon.

The very rapid intrusion of dry air in Northern Michigan is interesting. I suspect it will limit the heavy snow to a rather narrow corridor.

[Joel Wright]

Holy crap guys. It's really been coming down (and still is). 7.7" as of 10:30am. That's almost 2" in less than an hour. A band of 30dbz+ has essentially been stalled right on top of me for the last hour and a half. No thunder though unfortunately.

I just talked to a buddy just 25 miles west of me out in the QC and he said it's been barely snowing for quite awhile. These bands of snow are apparently pretty intense, but in between them the snow is very light. There's definitely going to be some variation in snowfall amounts just across a county.

Many locations are in the double-digits for snowfall just north and west of me, and still snowing rather feverishly. The previous forecasts of 10-14"+ will verify.

Something to think about if you're out east...

[Robert Dewey]

A foot would BLOW me away in Lansing... I'm thinking 6 inches at the most.

What's your reasoning for such a low amount?

The radar presentation is looking awesome at the moment...

[Joel Wright]

Stuck in a lull at the moment. Only picked up 0.1" in the last 50 minutes. Definitely makes a difference when you're between bands. Went from 2"+/hr snowfall rates to 0.1"/hr lol.

Heavy banded snows continue across much of northern IL. Dekalb is about to get rocked over the next few hours. Chicago before too much longer as well. Further west out towards the Mississippi, the snow's becoming more stratified. This will rotate southeast into northwest IL over the next few hours bringing more consistent snowfall. Amounts with this will be somewhat less dramatic compared to the heavy bands of snow, but snow in this area will be more steady.

I'm thinking someone up near Galena or Freeport IL will come in with a 15-18" amount. That area has been stuck under heavy snow all morning.

So as of 11:20am, 7.8" here in Erie...

[Joel Wright]

Calamus in Clinton County IA reports 14.0" of snow, and still snowing heavily...

[Robert Dewey]

it's snowing quite hard here at the moment... Judging by the regional radar and WV loop, I'm thinking we'll stay out of the dry slot.

Some of these bands look convective in nature as well.

[Jim Zandonai]

We have been getting light to Moderate to occ. Heavy Snow this a.m So far we have about 5" since last night.The area is rotating around the region so it wont end soon..Will go with about 10" max here though no doubt some areas even close by obviously will receive more..Definitely makes a huge difference in amounts when you are in the heavy band of snow and how long you are under them.

[Andrew Herron]

We've had hard sleet since about 10am this morning. For a small while we had half-dollar snow flakes but right now we're back to sleet.

Like Robert said, we'll probably stay out of the dry slot since so much moisture has been pulled up from the Ohio Valley.

[rdale]

What's your reasoning for such a low amount?


Six inches is still a lot :>

GFS is going 8", dry slot already working into extreme SW Michigan, and again the NAM has had ZERO value in the winter around Michigan when it comes to QPF. Good on paths - bad on numbers. Well, worse than bad...

[Scott Weberpal]

Had to say exactly how much we've received here just east of Janesville, WI due to strong blowing and drifting. I would estimate between 6" and 8". Drifting is very impressive with many drifts well over 4', including a 3'+ drift immediately in front of my garage, doh! Luckily the tractor was able to plow right through it and clear the way!

(Click on thumbs for larger images)

http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm04t.jpg (http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm04.jpg) http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm02t.jpg (http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm02.jpg) http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm06t.jpg (http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm06.jpg) http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm08t.jpg (http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm08.jpg)

[Joel Wright]

9.4" with moderate snow still falling. Snow should begin winding down in the next few hours. I'm not looking forward to shoveling all of this snow.

[Jim Zandonai]

Well just measured around 8-9 " here..It seems like the area is developing some gaps over N.IL here but we can still see a couple more inches.. Snow was very heavy in terms of weight earlier when I tried to clear the first wave of snow from last night..to add insult to injury now we have gusts over 30mph and another Arctic punch coming later in the weekend..

[Mike Kovalchick]

Heavy snow with 1/4 mile visibility just East of Lansing. Couple of pics taken at 3:00 PM EST.

[rdale]

4.5" on the ground west side of Lansing.

[Scott Weberpal]

9" here with 40 kt sustained winds, gusts to 52. I love it!!

http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/jvl_metar020608.gif

[Joel Wright]

9.8" was what I measured at about 2pm, but I just remeasured a bit ago and it has dropped back to 9.2". Must be either settling a bit, or melting from underneath. Probably a combination of the two.

Spotter in Cedar Rapids reports 14.5". the biggest total I can find so far in my immediate area is from Lowden IA, where they report 15.5".

[Mike Kovalchick]

4.5" on the ground west side of Lansing.

5.0" on the East side of Lansing near Haslett. The most intense snowfall of the season occuring right now(5 PM) with estimated visibility down to 1/8 of a mile at times...looks a bit like the last hurrah.

[rdale]

In the 6-7" range now, looks like this is moving out but I'm slightly concerned about the upper-level low as it treks overhead.

Still not getting a foot :>

[Robert Dewey]

Six inches is still a lot :>

GFS is going 8", dry slot already working into extreme SW Michigan, and again the NAM has had ZERO value in the winter around Michigan when it comes to QPF. Good on paths - bad on numbers. Well, worse than bad...

Ah, okay... I just like some reasoning behind such statements. I like to read thoughts :)

[Joel Wright]

Well, the final total for me is about 10". I measured 9.8" earlier this afternoon, but when the snow lightened up a bit it started settling a little. Even with light snow still falling. Snowfall amounts drop off very fast just to my south, and were much higher just to my north. Just across my county snowfall ranges from 7" in the far southern end, to over a foot in the north.

Highest total I could find in northern IL was Winslow up in Stephenson County where they measured 18". Several other locations in northwest IL back into eastern IA report 12-15". Maquoketa IA reports 14.5".

Overall I think the models handled this storm pretty well. Even the NAM once the storm was less than 36hrs away did pretty good.

With a current snowdepth of 13", spring seems a loooong way away! :(

[David Draun]

Doesn't seem to be too deep here in Dekalb. I'll say MAYBE 5 inches here. Of course I haven't gone outside yet, it just doesn't look like much.

[Danny Neal]

Received a whopping inch of snow here on the south side. A lot of liquid, not much frozen.

[Jeremy Lemanski]

9 inches so far, 2.5 falling in the past hour and a half.

[MatthewCarman]

The site I checked said 13" for my area (Jasper County) in central Iowa and it did look like we had over a foot of snow. This was a strong system.

[rdale]

7" final tally in Lansing...

[Scott Weberpal]

14" later, just got done plowing the driveway at the farm for the 2nd time. Thankfully the wind has diminished significantly, and hopefully we won't have to plow again!
(click thumbs for larger images)

http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm09t.jpg (http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm09.jpg) http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm10t.jpg (http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm10.jpg) http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm11t.jpg (http://www.tornadofx.com/FebSnow08/020608_snowstorm11.jpg)

[Jim Zandonai]

We ended up with about 10-11" inches here..the official amt was 11.6
Originally I had stated about 10" last night..not bad..However, some locales obviously ended up over a foot. The local TV station WIFR reported 14.3. The Airport is somehow always lower..in the case of Dec 1st 2006 they had 10.6 where i measured about 13-14" here..just 6-7 miles apart..
I was pretty impressed with the higher amounts..Didnt think it was going to happen last night but an impressive storm.. Could be close to a record season here which is 74.5 inches in78-79..total now 59.4 I believe.. I am really looking forward to seeing some green grass again !

[Mike Kovalchick]

About 8" on the E side of Lansing...and as expected-the bonus snow fell North of town with as much as 16". Lansing season totals are upto 4 feet and counting. I suspect there is plenty more to come during the rest of the Winter as the current storm track should hold in place. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=12495&source=0

[Now-on to the next storm! I'm headed up to my second home SW of Gaylord, MI this evening for the weekend. [Season totals there are now at 10 feet] Looking at BUFKIT Saturday evening/Sunday morning time frame shows high winds out of the NW and very cold temperatures and decent moisture. With the direction and strength of the wind field..there should be excellent Lake Superior preconditioning as the air rushes across Lake Michigan and then strong vertical velocities where the winds plow into the SW to NE escarpment West of Gaylord and develop intense snow squalls. I expect at least near blizzard conditions in that area. I will give a report on location over the weekend if this storm develops as anticipated.]

[rdale]

Keep the updates - I do radio up there, and have been at Otsego Lake every summer for the past 35 years...

7-8" covered Lansing, so a nice healthy snow, but nowhere near the extreme predictions of some (well, one ;) ) outlets...

[Mike Kovalchick]

Keep the updates - I do radio up there, and have been at Otsego Lake every summer for the past 35 years...

7-8" covered Lansing, so a nice healthy snow, but nowhere near the extreme predictions of some (well, one ;) ) outlets...

Will do...I will be located about 3 miles WNW of Otsego lake.
http://www.partnershipsforchange.cc/otsego/downloads/otsego_07_risk_vulnerability_assessment.pdf

Per the maps in the file above.. NW wind would put me on the Eastern side of the highest risk area. (Attachment shows model vertical velocities generated in NW flow situation..maxing out in a SW to NE line in Antrim CO...with the most intense convection-spill over just downwind from that location. ) Typically the area from Starvation Lake to Lakes of the North to the hill just East of Elmira receives the most in this situation with noticeable drop off in the town of Gaylord running S through Otsego Lake to Waters. Higher winds tend to move it a bit further inland however. There is about 17" on the ground at my cottage tapering to about 11" at NWS Gaylord. (Below average snow depths due to all the thaws this year.) Based on my own observations..Elmira is undoubtedly the snowiest town in lower Michigan..and should get quite the storm this weekend.

EDIT: New models show more of a WNW event(i.e. little air parcel preconditioning from Lake Superior) and bit less wind for the Saturday evening/Sunday morning time frame. Will have to see how the Alberta Clipper develops and modulates the wind flow around the Great Lakes over the weekend.