2/5/2008 DISC: TX / AR / MO / IL / KY / TN / MS [Archive]

Jeff Miller

02-06-2008, 06:55 AM

Horrible news:

According to CNN, the number of fatalities for this storm has increased to 45. Tragic.

Some comparisons to consider:

This outbreak is now, unfortunately, in terms of fatalities, on the same rank and scale as the May 3, 1999 Tornado outbreak (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_Tornado_Outbreak) in Central Oklahoma that claimed 46 fatalities. The May 3 had far more injuries, at 665, I don't believe we have that amount with this outbreak at this time, with over 100 injuries reported at this point. The May 3, 1999 Tornado outbreak had 66 confirmed tornadoes. PRELIMINARY indications from the Storm Prediction Center are showing 68 tornado reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html), but this will likely be trimmed as tornado reports are congealed into single tornado events.

This has been the deadliest tornado outbreak in 5 years, since the May 3 - 11, 2003 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2003_Tornado_Outbreak_Sequence) "9 Days of May" TornadoFest that claimed in a period of 9 Days a total of 48 fatalities at that time.

This is the earliest tornado outbreak in a calender year since the Hazelhurst, Mississippi Tornado Outbreak (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbr eaks) in 1969 that claimed 32 lives, not counting the Central Florida tornadoes of February 3, 2007 - that was only 3 tornadoes and not considered an outbreak.

DISCUSSION:

This tornado outbreak has been significant for several factors: The massive number of tornado reports, the early season factor, and all conditions coming together perfectly. The Storm Prediction center nailed this with a High Risk early in the day, with a forecast of a significant tornado outbreak.

As the day went on, scattered to numerous supercells developed well in front of an approaching strong cold front in a high shear environment. The abundant moisture, dewpoints in the mid 60s, an unusually strong jet stream and approaching front combined with the high shear combined to give the perfect ingredients for an outbreak. The storms developed rapidly in the mid afternoon, and rapidly exploded into tornado producing High Precipitation supercells.

Chasers were certainly on the scene. Tony Laubach, a storntrack member, flew from Colorado to the outbreak, and was rewarded with a multiple vortex wedge tornado. Other chasers also caught tornadoes as well, as chaser turnout and spotter activity was extremely high. Hard work it was however, with storm motions at 55-60 MPH.

These incredibly fast storm motions are partly responsible for the high fatalities as the high speed of the approaching tornadoes simply caught many by surprise, despite the urgency and constant blast of emergency warning sirens.

PERSONAL THOUGHTS

I was up at my computer most of the day yesterday watching these events unfold with 30 other storm chasers in the #stormchase IRC chat room and was saddened at each new large tornado report and damage report coming in. It was sad how many large population areas were direct targets this time around - and very stressful when you realize you can't do anything about it but sit and watch and hope for the best. IT was exciting to watch, but the excitement is dampened this morning with such a large loss of life.

This tornado outbreak will go down in history - and my thoughts and prayers go out to all families affected by this tragedy.

Kevin Statler

02-06-2008, 07:54 AM

Well the May 2003 tornadofest doesnt really count as single outreak like this event which was over 24 hours. I think this number went up because it continued overnight,and when i went to bad there was numerous tornado warnings..

cedwards

02-06-2008, 07:57 AM

Horrible news:

This is the earliest tornado outbreak in a calender year since the Hazelhurst, Mississippi Tornado Outbreak (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbr eaks) in 1969 that claimed 32 lives, not counting the Central Florida tornadoes of February 3, 2007 - that was only 3 tornadoes and not considered an outbreak.

Are you not counting January, 2008 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2008_Tornado_Outbreak_Sequence) and January, 1999 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1999_tornado_outbreak_sequence) as outbreaks?

Alex Lamers

02-06-2008, 08:42 AM

http://wreg.images.worldnow.com/images/7827071_BG3.jpg
Tornado in Memphis Area - WREG

Chris Hayes

02-06-2008, 09:08 AM

With the toll now at least 48, it's the deadliest outbreak since May 31, 1985 :(

David Draun

02-06-2008, 09:13 AM

I'm not a tornado damage expert by any means, but looking at the extensive damage on CNN it seems there could be another EF5 in there somewhere. Houses are wiped clean off foundations and it takes a hell of a lot of wind to bring dormitory buildings down. There has to be at least several EF3 and EF4 damage paths from the storms.

Marc Austin

02-06-2008, 09:19 AM

David Yoho

02-06-2008, 09:26 AM

I don't know how many of you were watching the Union University webcam when the tornado hit, but it was just unbelieveable! I couldn't believe I was watching a tornado tear through campus. I knew there would be damage, but never thought there would be that much! 48 dead :eek: This is a true tragedy, especially for early February.

On a side note, is there any way to get the video from an archive for the Union University webcam? If someone could get that, it would be amazing. The tornado was so clear and it came within a few yards of the camera. I'm assuming all the images are saved to an archive somewhere?

Let's hope the fatality number is done going up for this outbreak!

Yeah...right when one of the member's (can't rember who) put up the link to the camera, I went to the link to find it dead. I thought it was due to internet traffic, not from a tornado destroying it. Amazing! I hope the camera was saving images, but I am not holding my breath. Prayers to everyone affected.

Chris Strahan

02-06-2008, 10:08 AM

Sam Sagnella

02-06-2008, 10:30 AM

Wow that's a pretty gnarly image (above)!!

The AP is now reporting an "undetermined number" of fatalities in connection with the Trousdale/Wilson County TN explosion and resulting fire. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23023302/

Thankfully, it appears that this was misinformation, as one of the sub-headlines of a WSMV-TV (http://www.wsmv.com/weather/15225132/detail.html) article is "Company: No Fatalities in Gas Plant Explosion."

Patrick Marsh

02-06-2008, 10:32 AM

With the toll now at least 48, it's the deadliest outbreak since May 31, 1985 :(
Not to nitpick, but the 3 May 99 outbreak also claimed 48 fatalities. Remember, you have to count ALL fatalities from tornadoes that day...not just the Bridgecreek - Moore tornado.

Chris Hayes

02-06-2008, 10:42 AM

I was using Severe Plot from SPC and plotted out the May 3, outbreak and it said 46. hmmm

Marc Austin

02-06-2008, 10:47 AM

I too caught that tornado live from the Union web cam. I scrambled to get a web cam shot. I tried to enhance it, but not much luck. Here is the shot anyway, for what it is worth...

http://www.weathernut.net/nado.jpg

I was the member who posted the link. I'm so glad someone was able to get a screenshot of the tornado. It was interesting to watch it change as it approached the campus and I think there was one lighting shot from above that illuminated the tornado perfectly. I sure wish there were a way to get to the archived video. Perhaps that's something that can be done after the tragedy on campus has been dealt with.

Chris, news agencies may be interested in this webcam capture you have. I would contact them if I were you, as most people don't have any footage of this tornado, especially just before it impacted Union U.

Chris Hayes

02-06-2008, 11:03 AM

CNN now reporting the toll is at 50

Chris Strahan

02-06-2008, 11:06 AM

I was the member who posted the link. I'm so glad someone was able to get a screenshot of the tornado. It was interesting to watch it change as it approached the campus and I think there was one lighting shot from above that illuminated the tornado perfectly. I sure wish there were a way to get to the archived video. Perhaps that's something that can be done after the tragedy on campus has been dealt with.

Chris, news agencies may be interested in this webcam capture you have. I would contact them if I were you, as most people don't have any footage of this tornado, especially just before it impacted Union U.

I have the original on my home pc that is un edited. Any suggestions on whom to contact or an addy?

Marc Austin

02-06-2008, 11:16 AM

I have the original on my home pc that is un edited. Any suggestions on whom to contact or an addy?

Many newschannels like CNN and FOX have their own accounts set up for viewers to send pictures. You can attempt that. The only person I somewhat know is a weather producer for CNN. His name is Brandon Miller. You might be able to find his information on CNN's personnel website sometime. I'm sure he'd be glad to put that picture on CNN for you. I think it's truly an amazing shot, and the news companies might want to get the entire video from wherever it's stored (hoping it is). That's my advice.

Chris Strahan

02-06-2008, 11:30 AM

anybody catch what building that camera was located on?

Thanks for the info... I will look there for upload info

Marc Austin

02-06-2008, 11:35 AM

All I know is that the camera looks out over the Great Lawn at Union U. I didn't see the sight mention what building it was mounted on. Does anyone know if there were any fatalities at Union U? I didn't hear of any last night, but wanted to make sure none of the students were harmed. I did see that several were trapped and injured. I'm not liking this death toll increase every hour!

Marc Austin

02-06-2008, 11:39 AM

CNN now reporting 52 dead.

Kevin Statler

02-06-2008, 11:41 AM

I cannot remember the last time a single tornado outbreak killed 52 in recent days,least not since i've been tracking tornadoes..maybe 98? but i dont think they had one single day tornado outbreak with that many..

David Yoho

02-06-2008, 11:45 AM

Mark Farnik

02-06-2008, 11:50 AM

Just call it a gut feeling, but I have the unfortunate feeling that this death toll is not done rising yet and will continue to climb through the day. There's still a lot of rural areas of the affected states that have yet to be searched by emergency crews, and there are people are still missing at this hour. By the time all is said and done, the final death toll for this oubreak may approach or, god forbid, even exceed 60. The Super Tuesday Outbreak will undoubtedly go down in history as the most deadly American tornado outbreak in decades... it goes without saying that prayers are needed for those affected by these terrible tornadoes:(

Kory Hartman

02-06-2008, 12:02 PM

Complete photo album from Highland, AR now up at
www.severestudios.com

109 pictures of homes moved off their foundations and considerable damage to vehicles and businesses

Eddie Natenberg

02-06-2008, 12:07 PM

IMO-

I actually thought the death toll would be low while I was watching the event last night (since there were few deaths reported during the event) and there seemed to be decent lead times, but I guess it happens when a disaster of this magnitude strikes.

I would like to say how impressed I was with the NWS and SPC who were able (I personally thought) to do an effective job communicating forecasts and warnings to the public in a timely manner.

I also wanted to say I noticed that some information traveled faster on the message board last night than on the TV stations I was streaming online. Maybe they should get an intern to keep tabs on stormtrack (just a thought).

Eddie

Brian Stertz

02-06-2008, 12:11 PM

The speed that those tornadoes smashed into things last night (45-65 mph), and the fact that many of the deaths occurred at night along long tracks...it's a tragedy that more fatalities are likely as the search and recovery goes on during the daylight hours today. These were not small tornadoes either so the large damage swaths probably are causing all kinds of troubles in reaching many affected areas. A very nasty outbreak indeed.

Marc Austin

02-06-2008, 12:11 PM

Sounds like an excellent idea. I think local NWS offices did an excellent job last night as well. There wasn't a single storm I saw that didn't have a tornado warning on it any later than I would have issued one. I think the main problem was the fast storm motions. People thought they had "lead" time, but in reality, the tornado was alredy knocking on their front door. And from the Union Univ. webcam I watched last night, those tornadoes were blasting off to the NE! The tornado finally came into view, and within less than a minute, it had taken the camera out, so I think people probably just weren't prepared for such fast moving storms. Also, the fact that some of the worst tornadoes occured during nightime hours doen't help either. An intern to monitor storm track sounds like a great idea!

Chris Hayes

02-06-2008, 12:12 PM

Marc Austin

02-06-2008, 12:17 PM

Chris, let's hope that doesn't happen. I know this is one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in February. Can anyone recall one that took more lives this early in the season?

Tony Perkins

02-06-2008, 12:41 PM

Source: www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/t...talday.htm (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/fatalday.htm)

The 20 Deadliest U.S. Tornado Days
(Since 1950)

Storm Prediction Center
Compiled by Joe Schaefer, SPC

DATE DEATHS
03 Apr 1974 308
11 April 1965 260
21 Mar 1952 202
08 Jun 1953 142
11 May 1953 127
21 Feb 1971 121
25 May 1955 102
09 Jun 1953 90
31 May 1985 76
15 May 1968 71
03 Mar 1966 58
21 Apr 1967 58
10 Apr 1979 57
28 Mar 1984 57
(05 Feb 2008 52+?)
03 May 1999 46

Dustin Wilcox

02-06-2008, 01:54 PM

As bad as this is shaping up to be, it is scary to think that it actually could have been a lot worse. The storm responsible for much of the damage in TN & KY tracked right over the heart of Nashville, in fact it appeared that the rotation passed right over downtown. Thankfully the storm appeared to by cycling over the city. Also props to the NWS for staying ahead on the warnings, with storms moving that quick through Metro areas it had to be a long night, also the SPC deserves a little respect, upgrading to High risk I'm sure made the weather the "coffee shop talk" of the day, putting many residence on alert. I can't really say the same for the Memphis news stations I was watching streaming live coverage over the web; after the round of tornadoes moved through the southern Memphis Metro, I think they seemed to focus too much on the past and not on the present/future, repeatedly new warning text was stating radar and storm spotters are tracking a large and dangerous tornado, this storm was moving right along I-40 towards Jackson, yet they seemed to deem it more necessary to report on a wall knocked down at a Sears store.

Brian Stertz

02-06-2008, 03:38 PM

Damage video from a news helicopter looks like very solid EF4 type damage near Denmark TN. Homes leveled to foundation and debris swept off hundreds of yards away....definitely a blasting force behind this fast moving very large tornado. Damage swath wider than a half mile from what I could tell.

Chris Hayes

02-06-2008, 03:45 PM

I agree with that Brian. I've seen some pictures and video clips of damage that is solid EF4 or perhaps low end EF5. I think it's evident that there were more than 1 violent tornado yesterday. Despite the fact that this was the deadliest tornado outbreak in 23 years, we're lucky it wasnt the deadliest since the Super Outbreak. Looking at the dorm buildings at Union University makes me wonder how everyone survived without critical injury. In addition, I was in the IRC chat room as one of the Tennessee supercells headed for Nashville. I thought for sure that would be the big story of the outbreak. Glad I was wrong.

Dick McGowan

02-06-2008, 04:04 PM

Live coverage of a press conference from the NWS in Memphis......just now covering the EF-scale.

http://www.wmctv.com/

Dick McGowan

02-06-2008, 04:09 PM

Hickory Hill - EF2 including mall.
Arlington...(was all I caught) - EF2
Lead time - 15 minutes.

Madison County (Jackson, TN) - EF4 ~170 mph
no fatalities at the time, serious injuries.

Lead time - 26 minutes

Matthew K. Hartman

02-06-2008, 04:12 PM

To whomever had been asking where the camera is located on the Union University campus... The cam appears to have been located atop Miller Tower, the clock-tower located on the west side of campus. The camera seems to have been able to move (direction wise) but likely was pointed towards the west at the time.

Also, I guess this is as good time as any for an announcement... If this is against the rules, moderators, feel free to contact me and/or move this to another thread, if need be.

Anyhow, I have had a web/weather-cam project in development for nearly 2 or 3 years now - geared mostly towards the arm-chair chaser and forecasters, alike.

Since I am mostly forced to work on this on my own time (I don't get paid for it - and it's very tedious work!), many areas are still to be completed - or started! Initial incarnations were focused on areas we forecast for at Meridian (http://web.meridian-enviro.com), but eventually it will branch out into other states. In hind-site, I really wish I would have had some cams plotted around where the outbreak was on-going last evening. Time is a major constraint for me during the winter (our forecasting responsibilities are much greater this time of year), but this spring and summer, I anticipate much work to be done.

If you are curious as to what I have thus far, feel free to check out the network of web/weather-cams I have put together:

http://webcams.mhartman-wx.com

Thoughts and prayers to all of those affected yesterday and last evening...

Howard Robinson

02-06-2008, 05:53 PM

Global National News is showing footage from the storms in the SE. They had SPC on talking about the warning system. Global was asking if La Nina was the cause of the storms last night. They are still showing footage, looks like they are going to spend a lot more time on this.

David Poch

02-06-2008, 06:12 PM

Kurt Wayne

02-06-2008, 06:18 PM

:( CNN now reporting death toll at 54 - 30 in the state of Tennessee alone.

Tony Laubach

02-06-2008, 06:18 PM

First thing I heard when I turned on CNN just now was that some areas had little or no warning about the storms or their intensity. Every station that had streaming coverage was wall to wall and the NWS did an awesome job getting the warnings out in plenty of time.

Just about everyone they interviewed said they barely had warning. Are people that oblivious as to what is going on, or was it the fast storm motions that caught them off guard?

I was there and I know plenty of warning was given! The Memphis tornado, for instance, was being covered wall-to-wall via radio/TV (listening to TV stations) during the entire duration of the event.

I bet storm speeds played a huge part in the "lack of warning". I also think the targeting of storms added to the tolls. Several heavily populated areas, including a college campus, took direct hits from these storms. The tolls seem pretty scattered, but just the number of tornadoes in these areas accumulated and added quickly to all the tolls.

Aaron Kennedy

02-06-2008, 06:30 PM

Just about everyone they interviewed said they barely had warning. Are people that oblivious as to what is going on, or was it the fast storm motions that caught them off guard?This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.
Pretty timely considering a recent paper in WAF concerning killer tornadoes:

"Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Tornado Fatalities in the United States: 1880–2005 - W. S. Ashley" and a bit from the abstract:
"Results reveal that most tornado fatalities occur in the lower–Arkansas, Tennessee, and lower–Mississippi River valleys of the southeastern United States—a region outside of traditional "tornado alley." Analysis of variables including tornado frequency, land cover, mobile home density, population density, and nocturnal tornado probabilities demonstrates that the relative maximum of fatalities in the Deep South and minimum in the Great Plains may be due to the unique juxtaposition of both physical and social vulnerabilities. The spatial distribution of these killer tornadoes suggests that the above the national average mobile home density in the Southeast may be a key reason for the fatality maximum found in this area. A demographic analysis of fatalities during the latter part of the database record illustrates that the middle aged and elderly are at a much greater risk than are younger people during these events. "

Can anyone say nail on the head??? What does one have to do to convince people in these states that late winter/early spring is "showtime" for tornadoes? Although we can certainly improve our understanding of QLCS tornadoes and improve POD/FAR for tornado warnings in general, one can't help but think the problem is more sociological rather than meteorological.

Jeff Snyder

02-06-2008, 06:37 PM

I bet storm speeds played a huge part in the "lack of warning".

I bet the thing that played the most significant role in the "lack of warning" is ignorance and lack of attention. As you noted, it was extraordinarily well covered. The SPC did their job, the NWS did their job, and, from what I saw watching webcasts from Memphis, the TV personnel did their job (though some of the explanations and descriptions of various things were absolutely horrendous). As such, the "I had no warning" really meant "someone didn't come up to me personally as say 'Hey, take shelter'", I imagine. Any claim of "lack of warning" was not for unavailability of information and warning, though. As long as the NWS issues a warning, and there are not technical difficulties with the AHR/NWR system, the vast majority of people at home have warning the majority of the time. Things are difficult if you are at work, in your car, or otherwise not at home, but there are still technologies that exist to deliver warnings when issued. Personal responsibility, I say. This is starting to trend away from event-specific discussion (and, thus, away from the bounds of a DISC thread), so I'll stop there.

On a different note, I'll start a W&C thread tomorrow evening (no severe wx discussion of recent events may occur outside of DISC/REPORTS/NOW/FCST if within 48 hours of the event) to keep a running log of tornado assessments (times, locations, tracks, intensities, etc). It's worth noting that at least a couple of QRTs are being dispatched (evidenced by EF4 rating in Jackson TN and mention of QRT probability in a recent LZK PNS), so we may not know ratings for a few days on the most damaging tornadoes.

Dick McGowan

02-06-2008, 06:46 PM

First thing I heard when I turned on CNN just now was that some areas had little or no warning about the storms or their intensity.

Hickory Hill - EF2 including mall.
Arlington...(was all I caught) - EF2
Lead time - 15 minutes.

Madison County (Jackson, TN) - EF4 ~170 mph
no fatalities at the time, serious injuries.

Lead time - 26 minutes

High Risk issued by the SPC the morning of. Mention of SVR by Memphis NWS the Thursday before. Outbreak mentioned by the Memphis NWS Saturday or Sunday. Numerous PDS tornado boxes up, warnings with enough time to grocery shop before taking cover (I kid) and specified with "Large and extremely dangerous tornado" or "Tornado Emergency." Live streaming coverage of tornadoes caught on the webcams. What more can you do?

David Poch

02-06-2008, 06:58 PM

High Risk issued by the SPC the morning of. Mention of SVR by Memphis NWS the Thursday before. Outbreak mentioned by the Memphis NWS Saturday or Sunday. Numerous PDS tornado boxes up, warnings with enough time to grocery shop before taking cover (I kid) and specified with "Large and extremely dangerous tornado" or "Tornado Emergency." Live streaming coverage of tornadoes caught on the webcams. What more can you do?

That is what I was thinking. What more can you ask for? They just had Greg Carbin on from NOAA on talking about the warning system and how it worked almost flawlessly. He talked about forecasting it 6 days in advance and how the watches were issued several hours before hand. He did mention the storm speed being of concern. I'm glad they had him on I can settle down a little bit now.

cedwards

02-06-2008, 07:04 PM

What more can you do?
Hit them on the head with a hammer and drag them into the basement.

Asside from that, there is nothing more that can be done. I think most of the time when you hear "We didn't have any warning", they just say that to get a sound byte. Maybe the media drags it out of them and maybe they have heard it before, so they repeat it.
There was live coverage after the Miami, FL tornado of a "witness" who claimed "it sounded like a freight train... toot toot" You know he didn't actually hear the freight train sound. He has just heard that statement, so it seemed appropriate. Based on his imitation of the sound, it was obvious that he didn't know what that sound was.

Brian Emfinger

02-06-2008, 08:30 PM

Heidi Farrar

02-06-2008, 08:46 PM

This has been a very rough day.

My home is 2.5 miles south of the damage path through Izard Co., AR. I live about 3 miles south of Franklin. The town of Zion (pop. 150 or so) is about 5 miles from my house, and sustained very heavy damage to at least 3/4 of the buildings in town. There was one fatality confirmed here.

I caught a glimpse of the tornado between lightning flashes last evening at around 6:30. I really could not believe what I was seeing at the time; it was about an hour later when I heard from a neighbor that his brother's house had (and I quote) "just been blown away " that the reality of what I had seen in that instant set in.

When I saw the tornado it was about 2 miles south of where my husband and I had sought shelter at our neighbor's. (We don't have a shelter at our house. My chase day was called off as soon as the sun set. I do not have mobile internet yet, and I was not about to go out after this storm on our roads after dark. I might be dead if I had.) At the time I glimpsed the tornado, it had a large stove-pipe condensation funnel 3/4 of the way to the ground, with what I now realize were "wedge characteristics" on the sides. (Basically, imagine a suspended wedge with a fat stovepipe coming out the bottom.) The cloud base was extremely low, and I could hear the roar. (It was not as loud as it was on 9/22/06 when the rotating wall cloud came over-top of us at the exact same location, however, since it was farther away this time.)

After learning of the damage so close to our house, my husband and I drove a couple of miles up our road to see whether there was anything we could do to help. Our progress was stopped when we encountered these trees, which were basically stuffed up the road for 100 yards. These are large pines and cedars, and have since been cleared, with the help of special machinery:

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/25roadblockcr.jpg

The above photo was taken this morning at about 8:00. I had to find another route to Zion because of the trees blocking the road. When I got there, it was a difficult scene.

Our friends own a blueberry farm about a mile and a half outside of Zion, and we were especially concerned about their safety. After mapping the likely damage path on our DeLorme software, it appeared that the tornado would have been very close to their farm. Their farm sits in a valley on Piney Creek, and was completely surrounded by large pines (hence the name). Their house was not visible from the road, and their farm was very secluded once in the blueberry field; the perimeter of their property was surrounded by very large, stately pines and hardwoods. Upon entering this valley, the road takes a wide turn to the left (if driving north). When I rounded this curve today, I could not believe my eyes, even after seeing the devestation in Zion.

The first thing I saw was the remains of our friends farm, fully exposed and scattered across a quarter-mile of what is now virtually treeless fields. Even from a mile away, I could tell that their place had sustained heavy damage, and I feared for their safety if they had been inside. Their house is a nice modular home and sat on a block foundation. They had many outbuildings for their business; all of this was now indistinguishable from a few of their neighbor's homes debris and the debris from a large chicken barn about 1/4 mile from their berry farm.

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/25berrybarncr.jpg
This was once their blueberry business "barn." It housed equipment, and was the retail center during picking season.

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/25blueberryfriendscarcr.jpg
Their vehicle; and I didn't blot out the license plate -- that's mud spray.

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/25offfoundationblueberryfriendshous.jpg
Their house. It was rocked about 5 feet completely off the foundation and is obviously a total loss.

Just north of their place (about a half-mile) was a very large broiler chicken opperation. This was about 1,000 yards total of chicken barns, along with a newly-built well constructed home. Here is what is left; the house sat at the base of the small hill on the right-hand side of this photo:

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/25severedamagepastberryfarmcr.jpg

The damage through this valley is approaching a mile-wide. I have an 18-35mm lens, and from a mile back, I could not capture the entire damage swath.

Also (and I did not take photos of this), a very large cattle opperation south of Melbourne, AR, near Sage, was hit hard. About 150 cattle were killed. There are dead cows all over the place, with reports of some of them being carried long distances. The damage in this area is about 1/3 mile - 1/2 mile wide. The damage the whole way along, where I saw, is anywhere from 1/4 mile to approaching 1 mile wide.

When I got home this afternoon, I discovered large pieces of yellow insullation hanging from a large oak tree in our back yard. I also found several large clumps of yellow (and pink) insullation in the pastures at our neighbors' ranch (where we had sought shelter). I have really not looked around much, but I suspect I could find other debris items as well.

(Of note: Highland, AR, is where we do our shopping. As you know, this area was also hit very hard; the commercial district of this city was virtually wiped out. I have not ventured to this area yet, so I do not have any additional photos. It's about 17 miles from home, and as I understand, the damage is between 1/2 - 1 mile wide also.)

EDIT: I failed to mention that there was at least one fatality in Zion and a number of injuries, some serious.
EDIT: I thought I should post this in the discussion because I wasn't actually chasing at the time; I was under the impression that REPORTS was only for actual chase reports. If I should have posted it in REPORTS, could a mod please move it (sorry for the hassle).

CHris Whitehead

02-06-2008, 09:20 PM

MODS: please move this as you see fit

If anyone can find video of the Memphis tornado (WREG broadcast from tower cam preferably) that I can embed via code or URL into myspace/facebook/etc..., please post.

John Farley

02-06-2008, 09:35 PM

On the "we had no warning" issue - I did see some news reports last night and this morning where people in the impacted areas were asked about warnings, and they said the warnings were very good. In fact, that was the case on all the coverage I saw where the issue of warnings came up. I believe some of these folks were local government officials and/or EM folks, but everyone I heard asked about the warnings said there were timely warnings that saved a lot of lives. So I do not think the media is being entirely negative about this, though I understand sometimes it is hard to resist giving air time to the folks who claim "we had no warning."

Matthew Havin

02-06-2008, 10:14 PM

Repeating what others have said...... I think the SPC and the NWS deserve a big pat on the back for their performance. They did an excellent job with such a significant event with fast moving tornadoes. Our local office (Huntsville, AL) provided excellent warning before the Lawrence Co., AL EF-3 and the Jackson Co., AL EF-4 (preliminary). Unfortunately, these moved thru in the early morning, leading to 4 fatalities.

Adding to the "we had no warning" debate......... I know most of Lawrence Co. in Alabama has no tornado warning sirens (where 3 died with the tornado just after 3 AM). Unfortunately, many people still don't have a a weather radio, or some other way of receiving tornado warning information (cell phone, etc).

Kevin Statler

02-06-2008, 10:30 PM

55 dead now. One more found in Tn. dear God..

Alex Lamers

02-06-2008, 10:59 PM

http://cfc.katv.com/videoondemand.cfm?id=8452&ref=home

Video of the Clinton, AR area. This was the area the LZK PNS referenced the possibility of calling in the QRT.

Kevin Statler

02-06-2008, 11:24 PM

Amateur footage of Atkins,Ar killer tornado..

http://cfc.katv.com/videoondemand.cfm?id=8458&ref=home

Amateur footage of Clinton,Ar tornado..

http://cfc.katv.com/videoondemand.cfm?id=8461&ref=home

Kevin Statler

02-07-2008, 12:00 AM

RELIMINARY STORM SURVEY INFORMATION FROM JACKSON COUNTY ALABAMA...

A PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY OF THE DAMAGE INCURRED ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY ALABAMA HAS BEEN COMPLETED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND JACKSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL. INITIAL FINDINGS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

* LOCATION: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 60 AND 177 BETWEEN THE ROSALIE AND PISGAH COMMUNITIES IN EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY.

* PATH LENGTH: STILL BEING DETERMINED
* MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 3/8 MILE
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 180 MPH
* PRELIMINARY RATING: EF-4
* FATALITIES: 1
* INJURIES: UNKNOWN

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION INCLUDING A MORE COMPLETE SUMMARY WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE LATER TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY ALABAMA

A PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY OF THE DAMAGE INCURRED ACROSS LAWRENCE COUNTY ALABAMA HAS BEEN COMPLETED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LAWRENCE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL. INITIAL FINDINGS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

* LOCATION: THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE PINHOOK COMMUNITY... NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BANKHEAD NATIONAL FOREST...AND CONTINUED AT LEAST TO THE MORGAN COUNTY LINE NEAR THE TRINITY COMMUNITY.

* PATH LENGTH: 18.7 MILES
* MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 1/2 MILE
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 150 MPH
* PRELIMINARY RATING: EF-3
* FATALITIES: 3
* INJURIES: 20-25

* SUMMARY: SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS SEEN IN TWO AREAS. THE FIRST... JUST SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF PINHOOK NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 92 AND 188. THE SECOND AREA WAS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 94 AND 183...JUST NORTH OF ALDRIDGE GROVE...WHERE THE THREE FATALITIES OCCURRED. NUMEROUS HOMES RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...INCLUDING A 2300 SQUARE FOOT / TWO STORY BRICK HOUSE...THAT WAS NEARLY LEVELED OFF ITS FOUNDATION. LARGE TREES...WITH DIAMETERS UP TO 4 FEET...WERE COMPLETELY SNAPPED WITH MANY UPROOTED.

BMcMillan

02-07-2008, 12:21 AM

Wikipedia already has a comprehensive summary of the outbreak completed...wow those guys are fast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday_Outbreak

Scott Lincoln

02-07-2008, 12:53 AM

Adding to the "we had no warning" debate......... I know most of Lawrence Co. in Alabama has no tornado warning sirens (where 3 died with the tornado just after 3 AM).

Whether or not Lawrence County, AL, has warning sirens doesn't really matter. Tornado sirens are an outdoor warning system. You are right about one thing - its weather radios that make the difference for nighttime tornadoes.

Khristian Snyder

02-07-2008, 01:27 AM

Here is a grab from the live cam feed in Memphis...not the best quality but still a interesting point of view...I saved the video and I will try to post it soon.

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/3686/clipmediumik7.jpg

Randall Roy Chamberlain

02-07-2008, 06:39 AM

First of all my heart goes out to all that lost their lives and to the families and friends of their loved ones and to all who were injured as well.

My mouth just keeps dropping every picture I see and report I found some information the NWS in Little Rock Arkansas has already put on their webspace. Nice information on the setup and radar on the event and follow up. Weather service is thinking one storm (storm #1) possibly went 120 miles with one tornado!? :eek: Here is the link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/html/svr0208.htm

Randall Roy Chamberlain

02-07-2008, 07:15 AM

Sorry for this guess I should've found this information before I reposted and enclosed it on my other post.

Found a link to WREG in Memphis Tennessee with all sorts of amateur video of the tornadoes and there is one with the Hilton webcam capturing the tornado in Memphis previously mentioned by Khristian. Can't wait for your link Khristian looks like your grab was closer to the tornado

http://www.wreg.com/Global/story.asp?S=7827071

Genaro Estrada

02-07-2008, 09:21 AM

I was also tracking some of these tornadic storms on GRLevel3 from California, I was totally awestruck at how many rotating cells there were embedded in that convective line, but also saddened to hear the clilmbing fatality reports. I don't know what more people can do, other than always be prepared, when an outbreak happens at night, and storms are moving at 50+ mph.

Scott Lincoln

02-07-2008, 09:41 AM

Sam Sagnella

02-07-2008, 10:24 AM

Does anyone know if it is normal for NWS Memphis to have absolutely no post-storm information on their main webpage? It looks like all the other offices have information posted already, including their surveys... but for Memphis it looks like you have to dig through public information statement text....

I'm not sure how long ago they put this up, but there is a link to the survey results below the point forecast map on their main page. ;)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/
So far they've posted the four PNSs, some pretty amazing pictures of the damage from their survey, and the power point of their media briefing.

Scott Lincoln

02-07-2008, 11:26 AM

Well, look at that. They did put up some information. I do remember looking down at that area recently and not seeing it... so I hope I'm not going blind.

Danny Neal

02-07-2008, 04:16 PM

If anyone missed it...the NWS in Little Rock has released preliminary information here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LZK/PNSLZK

From the survey of the EF3 in Van Buren County: THERE WERE TWO INSTANCES WHERE PEOPLE WERE LOOKING FOR THEIR VEHICLES. THE VEHICLES WERE THROWN FOR A DISTANCE AND COULD NOT BE FOUND.

I'm not sure I've seen that in a report before.

Directly above that text that Brian just posted:

"...VAN BUREN COUNTY...

THE OTHER TEAM VIEWED DAMAGE FROM AROUND SHIRLEY BACK THROUGH CLINTON AND CULPEPPER. MUCH OF THE SWATH OF DAMAGE WAS ONE HALF MILE TO A MILE WIDE...WITH THE TORNADO RATED AS AT LEAST EF3 THERE SOME CASES WHERE HOMES WERE SWEPT OFF OF THEIR FOUNDATIONS... INCLUDING AT LEAST ONE BRAND NEW HOME. "

Unbelievable. I haven't looked for or seen any damage photos from this area(other than the Atkins area), but I am sure this is at least on the upper end of the EF scale rating just by description. I am NOT sure about the home construction and material used in that area. (Single family, basement, Du-plex, etc) When I hear a brand new home swept off a foundation it really raises some eyebrows.

Kurt Wayne

02-07-2008, 04:57 PM

There's a second video clip of the Clinton, AR (Van Buren County, mentioned above) tornado, again on the KATV-TV/Little Rock web site (http://cfc.katv.com/videoondemand.cfm?id=8460&ref=home).

What's interesting about this particular video is it clearly shows a horizontal tube "sprouting" out of the Clinton tornado that ends up looking much like the one in the 1991 Red Rock, OK and 2006 Marmaduke, AR/Caruthersville, MO tornadoes.

Another thing about Clinton (as if this myth needed further dispelling)...it's located in a valley surrounded by some of the largest of Arkansas' Boston Mountains (the biggest mountains in the Ozarks plateau). Didn't stop the tornado from hitting the city, or the supercell from generating more tornadic "family members" in the also very hilly counties it tracked to the northeast of Clinton.

George Tincher

02-07-2008, 05:46 PM

Bill Meck, chief met at WLEX-18 TV in Lexington, KY said that there had been 17 tornadoes confirmed by survey so far across the state of Kentucky. That is pretty amazing. Combined with the number of touchdowns that appear to have happened across AR, MO, TN and AL, it appears this will also go down in the books as a very sizable outbreak in terms of total tornadoes as well.

Brian Emfinger

02-07-2008, 06:22 PM

Here is a little map I just put together to show the path the storm/tornado(s) took. The tornado started off in elevations of less than 500ft but past Atkins it went into the mountains and it went through extremely mountainous terrain as high as around 2000ft. The NWS Little Rock so far still thinks this tornado as being continuously on the ground. An air survey will be done tomorrow so they will know for sure then. BTW, I just want to say that John Robinson and the rest of the NWS LZK office are simply outstanding with absolutely everything from the warnings to the aftermath.

http://www.realclearwx.com/AtkinsClintonSupercell.jpg

NWS LZK has a lot more pictures on their site now including this one of a Jeep in a tree at Zion (Izard County)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/images2/storm020508j.jpg

Also, if anyone missed the story about the 18 month old being found in a field after being mistaken for a doll (his mother died in the tornado)...Here it is:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080207/D8ULP2CG0.html

Wesley Luginbyhl

02-07-2008, 06:36 PM

We drove up to Clinton about an hour after the tornado hit on the 5th while on our way back to Norman. Its pretty rough country from the interstate to Clinton, though the tornado would have likely still been quite visible from the highway coming from the south. There are lots of tall trees in this region, a few of which were blocking some of the side roads we drove down. I would have loved to see video of that tornado going up and down the hills near there.

Bill Hark

02-07-2008, 09:24 PM

Chris Hayes

02-07-2008, 09:34 PM

Has anyone heard about what the death toll is? I've been trying to find out but I'm seeing varying numbers. Wiki is saying it's up to 59, but I havent seen that anywhere. Wiki also says 47 tornados confirmed so far.

Brandon Smith

02-07-2008, 10:05 PM

Here is an interesting amateur video from someone who had a close encounter with a spinup in Southhaven, MS just south of Memphis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceh_p6sOCWw

This is the beginning of the tornado that tracked south and east of Memphis.

Bill Hark

Typing "Southhaven tornado" into Youtube brings up a couple other interesting videos of the event. The first one looks like it's taken from a second story bedroom and has no sound with it. The tornado can be seen forming in the distance. The second video is very ominous. A family tapes the tornado passing just outside their neighborhood. Although you know the tornado is there, you cannot see the cloud base or the tornado in the distance. Transformers around them are blowing up as the sirens start up halfway through.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLOPenXZijM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMYXBmSSdYI

Chad Cowan

02-07-2008, 10:20 PM

Video of Jackson, TN tornado posted by Youtube user "rforry":

C2mzZCOjDGQ

Dave Gallaher

02-08-2008, 02:07 AM

The Lawrence County, AL storm has been upgraded to EF-4. Photo of two large-diameter trees snapped just above ground level is pretty dramatic. This and others are posted at the NWS survey site http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/ along with radar loops of both Lawrence and Jackson County EF-4s.

Karen Politte

02-08-2008, 08:41 AM

Hey Brian,

That's a neat elevation map with the tornado track/s overlaid. Thanks for that. You sure don't see that sort of terrain lying under a tornado's track very often in the Plains - I'll second the notion that it would have been some sight to have seen this storm in daylight as it mowed through the woods and over hills and down valleys.

I had the pleasure of meeting with John Robinson et. al. during an AMS meeting the week before this event, and I'll also second that the NWS LZK and crew from NWS LZK are really an amazing team and - not only did they cover the warnings masterfully during Tuesday's dire situation - but they have had people out in the field SINCE Tuesday making sure that these tornadoes go down in the records accurately - which is a huge deal to anybody who cares about what we collectively care about. Bravo guys!

Incidentally - NWS LZK state (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/html/svr0208a.htm)that a fly-over of the Atkins/Clinton tornado track has been scheduled with the Civial Air Patrol for today (Feb. 8th) to help determine if it was a tornado family or if the damage was caused by one tornado with a 120-mile long track, and that there will indeed be a QRT on the scene during the day to assess the damage further. One wonders if Mr. Marshall is skulking amidst the piney woods somewhere north of here.......hope he's brought his thermals......it's 28oF out there right now. I also wonder if an EF4 will be rearing it's ugly head out of all this mess. I guess time will tell.

KL

Terry Tyler

02-08-2008, 09:22 AM

a freind of mine in memphis was up there when all that stuff was goin down...

i told him to grab a couple shots of the storm, but he looks to be on a different side of the storm...this is the picture he took...

http://a913.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/82/l_4c741c9442cc68d7853f77027ca26390.jpg

now, i told him there wasnt anything too outstanding about this picture, and if there was a tornado possible in this picture, it wouldent be visible because of his vantage point, and if there was something...it would be that little lowering behind the trees...you can see its obscured by the precip...

now, i showed him someone elses pictures of the same storm, but from a different angle apparently SE of him...now, im not too sure about this picture, cause the date/time says 1/13/07...but, they both look pretty similar...also, since only 1 wind report was recieved in southern, TX on 1-13-07, im assuming that the date might not have been set right...i found it on the WREG website too, saying it was from the "memphis storms" so im positive its the same storm...

http://wreg.images.worldnow.com/images/7827071_BG1.jpg

well, i told him to check out the mall...and see what all happened over there, and he went down there...and he took a couple pictures...

take a look!

http://a321.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/57/l_e98e4c3ed132d6b98a91bdd78474e3a8.jpg

thats a big daddys pawnshop in that strip-mall area...and here are a couple trees tore up...

http://a398.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/71/l_5ffa00a5866cab1fabdaa6dd56fdc925.jpg

some roof damage and whatnot...

http://a527.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/123/l_8d6545ed96230254d3a8f264e6249fe6.jpg

- credit sam slay for these photos...

Randy Bowers

02-08-2008, 10:57 AM

This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/surveys/images/020508/sumner_county/P1010100.JPG

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/surveys/images/020508/trousdale_county/P1010035.JPG

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/surveys/images/020508/trousdale_county/P1010028.JPG

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/surveys/images/020508/trousdale_county/P1010022.JPG

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/surveys/images/020508/trousdale_county/P1010011.JPG

Can anyone say nail on the head??? What does one have to do to convince people in these states that late winter/early spring is "showtime" for tornadoes?

I guess it's easy to judge when you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. For those of us that have any amount of sense whatsoever, it's self-explanatory. For others, I'll spell it out for you. In many cases, survival was not possible without being underground. If you would like for me to draw you a picture or otherwise illustrate, I'll be more than happy to. But, I think the above pictures do a well enough job of that.

I’m not saying that ignorance wasn’t a factor, but was certainly not the cause for the large number of deaths.

Sincerely,
One dumb southerner that hopefully will someday learn how to pull my head out of my posterior, buy some shoes, and get my teeth fixed. Maybe I'll eventually move up to a double wide from my single wide, too.

Karen Politte

02-08-2008, 11:40 AM

There's no point in finger-pointing after an event that has killed so many people, and that especially goes for when you're pointing the finger at the victims......even if they had had a few too many whiskeys before the NWR went off.

What I think we are failing to realize is that - outside of the chaser/weather enthusiast community - weather is really just a very, very small portion of every other person's life. It's the small sliver in the piechart of "What's Important" that never gets seen. It's something that never even warrants consideration unless it is interfering with social events. People are busy with their children, wallpapering the spare bedroom, working all hours, putting new tires on their cars and going canoeing. As much as a chaser's blood spurts out of their ears every time we see a local tornado victim who cries about how little time they had to prepare - we must bear in mind that this person is not a chaser and has absolutely no use for an internet connection in meteorological terms. They wouldn't know 250kts of GTG shear if it came up and smacked them in the arse, and a flying eagle is their Nation's proud symbol - not something to be scared of.

There is absolutely no way you can warn everybody and there is absolutely no way that you can make sure that everybody realizes the gravity of the situation. Unless the tornado is affecting their property at the time the warning comes out, most "normal" people will wait and see if the storms comes towards them......with probably only a passing thought about which room is their interior room, or the fact that they have no basement.

It is true that the Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb timeframe can be quite active tornado-wise for the southern U.S. states - but yet again to "normal" people this really doesn't concern them. They are not like us. They are not sitting at their computers every day looking at the GFS progs to see if the next Big One for Arkansas is on it's way.

Yet another factor in all of this is the fact that these storms were no slouches. They were travelling at 60mph or faster, and they contained extremely voilent tornadoes. We have all seen huge, intense shear couplets with hundreds of storms only to find out that it barely produced. Why this is, I don't know. It's one of the mysteries of tornadogenesis. On Tuesday, however, these storms all produced in a big way and had large, fast-moving, violent torndoes associated with them. What's more - Arkansas (and I'm sure states further east) have far more spread-out populations than the Plains states. Rather than one huge center of 1million+ people, Arkansas' population is very evenly distributed throughout regional cities and towns of 5, 10, 20 and 30,000 people. Consequently - when an event like Tuesday's happens and a storm produces a significant EF3 or EF4 tornado - that tornado has a far greater chance of mowing through populated areas, rather than churning harmlessly through Prairie such as in Oklahoma or Kansas.

Meanwhile, I await the QRT's findings with anticipation on the storms that completely destroyed several of my colleague's family's homes.

KL

Randy Bowers

02-08-2008, 11:58 AM

I couldn't agree more, Karen. That is certainly an issue—the lack of awareness, and should be a great concern to all meteorologists. I think, for the most part, it is. Although, it seems the importance of good communication and the value of outreach is underestimated by a handful of meteorologists. There’s a lot of work for meteorologists to do, not just in the science itself. The perception of warnings is a problem—not just in the south, but in the plains and other tornado-prone areas as well.

Dan Robinson

02-08-2008, 12:08 PM

The problem is despite how bad outbreaks like this can be, the reality is that the chance of getting hit by a tornado for any one person is so slim as to be negligible. Unfortunately, most people realize that and it affects their response. It's like worrying about a piece of an airplane falling off and hitting you in the head. No one is going to carry a helmet around to protect against that threat, they'll just take their chances.

This isn't to say that people shouldn't be responsible enough to heed the plethora of watches and warnings put out well in advance, but still, the "it's not going to happen to me" mentality will always be there. I think it's a matter of people getting the warnings but not heeding them. They accept the risk of getting hit because it is so slim, and therefore don't take action. Most people will never see a tornado in their lifetime, let alone get hit by one.

Brian Emfinger

02-08-2008, 12:08 PM

What's more - Arkansas (and I'm sure states further east) have far more spread-out populations than the Plains states. Rather than one huge center of 1million+ people, Arkansas' population is very evenly distributed throughout regional cities and towns of 5, 10, 20 and 30,000 people. Consequently - when an event like Tuesday's happens and a storm produces a significant EF3 or EF4 tornado - that tornado has a far greater chance of mowing through populated areas, rather than churning harmlessly through Prairie such as in Oklahoma or Kansas.
Thats an outstanding point of which I hadn't even thought. Arkansas and states east of plains doesn't have a large population and your exactly right about the distribution. You can't go too far in Arkansas (even in the most rugged areas) without finding a community or at least a few houses. This definitely goes into (along with terrain and night time storms) why the lower ms valley can have such high death totals.

Randy Bowers

02-08-2008, 12:16 PM

...but still, the "it's not going to happen to me" mentality will always be there [...] They accept the risk of getting hit because it is so slim, and therefore don't take action.

I agree with that, and I really don't know what can be done to change that mentality.

The risk that any one of us would be killed in an auto accident is slim as well. But most of us take precautions such as wearing our seat belt and minimizing any distractions. So, why would people not take similar precautions for tornado events (i.e. buying a weather radio)?

Heidi Farrar

02-08-2008, 12:19 PM

Karen, thank you. That was beautifully written. I thought I would have something to add, but I kept reading and you pretty much covered it.

This was the cover of The Batesville Daily Guard yesterday. I assume it's okay to post this photo, since credit is given. This is a captured video still taken by Chris Williams from Lunerburg, AR, which is sw of Sage & Zion, at 6:20 Tuesday. I believe he was about 5 miles from the tornado when he got his video (KAIT-8 Jonesboro is attempting to track down the video today -- if/when they do, I am sure it will be available online). I was about 2 miles away when I saw it; at that time it had more of a stove-pipe look to the base, with the wedge shape on the sides. Judging by the damage at the place where I saw it, I think it may have been lifting slightly at that time. The damage at this area was through heavy forest, and the tops are now sheared out of the trees for a good ways, and probably 1/4 mile wide.

EDIT: I forgot to say that this was captured during a lightning flash; he had back-lighting at the time, and there was more daylight at 6:20 than when I saw it at around 6:35.

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/2508tornadophoto.jpg

I hope it is okay to say this, too, but ST member Jeff Smith has organized a relief effort through his church in the Tulsa area. They're planning to be here tomorrow around lunch time. I cannot express how this affects me on a personal level. This community really needs the help.

Terry Tyler

02-08-2008, 12:53 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/surveys/images/020508/trousdale_county/P1010035.JPG
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/surveys/images/020508/trousdale_county/P1010011.JPG

One dumb southerner that hopefully will someday learn how to pull my head out of my posterior, buy some shoes, and get my teeth fixed. Maybe I'll eventually move up to a double wide from my single wide, too.

lol, you guys are messed up...

you actually want to blame those people for being killed, and then have the balls to call them ignorant?

take a look at those homes...it doesnt matter who the hell you are...you would not be able to survive the storm...no matter what your education, socio-economic status or whatever...

i think its rude, and unethical to make remarks like "natural seletion" against people who have lost their entire lives and all their property...making fun of southerners and keeping that "ignorant white trash hillybilly" attitude is disrespectful and unintelligent...

i just cant believe you have the nuts to come out and make fun of a major national tragedy like that...some balls...

Dennis Sherrod

02-08-2008, 01:02 PM

[QUOTE=Aaron Kennedy;166869]This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.
Pretty timely considering a recent paper in WAF concerning killer tornadoes:

Karen,
Your thoughts on this are much more reasonable and I believe accurate than a flawed concept of evolution pertaining to "natural selection." Using that thought process, the entire picture could be reversed and these people affected by a disaster could say that we have not learned over the years to even get out of the weather. As in: Taking pictures and video of standing out in storms in high winds, chasing storms, taking certain risks that may lead to possible injury or death just to fed our desires, fulfill some of our job requirements, or to enhance the science of weather.
Everyone's focus and understanding should be that natural disasters will always occur. Sadly, deaths and injuries inevitably will happen given the degree of the intensity of storms and the unfinished science of studying about these types of weather phenomena. As in evidenced in countless photos, videos, and other verified documentation, natural disaster deaths and injuries occur regardless of the type of structure or locale in which one lives.
We should be focused on helping the people affected, whether through our storm documentations, education, or by any other worthwhile means of assistance.
We do not need to be throwing stones at people because of their social or economic class and status that may lead one to "believe" is the cause of death and injuries.

Jeff Snyder

02-08-2008, 01:06 PM

Everyone take a deep breath! Some are starting to get defensive, and it's important to keep personal attacks and/or snarks out of this forum. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but throwing insults at another member will be grounds for an infraction.

I think most of what some have been saying is that it's likely that SOME of those who died were not following prudent safety procedures. Unless anyone wants to argue that every single person who died did so while hunkered down in a bath tub, covered by a mattress, in a bathroom located near the center of the house, then I think we can all agree that it's likely that some people did not heed the warning. I don't think anyone in here has thus far said that all deaths were "stupid people". Yes, I'm sure many folks took shelter and followed safety procedures that are prudent when a tornado is likely coming your way, but I certainly think that some people took the "it won't happen to me" and didn't do anything.

Not all of these were EF5s that obliterated every single thing above the ground. Frankly, we don't know enough about where, when, and how the all the deaths occurred to say much one way or the other right now. Unfortunately, you can't interview those who died, so there's not much of a way to figure out what they were thinking. Again, I'm sure many did hunker down as recommended by the NWS (and common sense), but I don't think it's "stupid" to assume that some people did not. Just because a few pics show very significant damage, does that mean that the deaths that occurred by that tornado occurred in that same spot those pics were taken? Do you know that the deaths occurred right where the pictures were taken? Perhaps a death occurred on the periphery of the tornado, when it was considerably weaker. Again, not saying this was the case, but we just don't know enough about ALL of the deaths to know for sure.

Finally, who said anything about "hillbilly" ignorant southerners? The same "it won't happen to me" mentality (not entirely unreasonable, given the extremely small risk of ever being hit by a tornado!) is likely shared by many households in this country. I haven't read anything yet that attributes this attitude exclusively to "southerners".

Heidi Farrar

02-08-2008, 01:18 PM

I would not be surprised to see an EF-5 rating for the Van Buren Co., AR tornado, that is some incredbile damage, i.e., the Jeep or whatever it was.

Just for the record, the Jeep is in Zion, in Izard Co. I haven't seen that one yet. There are a few side roads I won't even go down because it looks so bad. It does seem that things are leaning in the direction of EF-5 in Clinton, though, which is Van Buren Co. There are some areas outside of Zion that I have seen that could be EF-4. It will be very interesting to see what the LZK crew determines.

Randy Bowers

02-08-2008, 01:19 PM

Finally, who said anything about "hillbilly" ignorant southerners? The same "it won't happen to me" mentality (not entirely unreasonable, given the extremely small risk of ever being hit by a tornado!) is likely shared by many households in this country. I haven't read anything yet that attributes this attitude exclusively to "southerners".

Perhaps that wasn't stated, but it was implied, I felt. Nevertheless, to say that people react differently in the south than in other tornado-prone areas may be true to some degree, but there are many other factors to consider. From experience I can say that people in Tennessee were VERY aware of what was to come this past Tuesday. Awareness is not the issue here. Furthermore, I've seen from previous high-end events (5/18/95, 4/16/98, 11/15/05, 4/7/06) that people in the south do indeed pay attention and take it very seriously--as seriously as anyone in Oklahoma would take it.

Dennis Sherrod

02-08-2008, 01:26 PM

Jeff Snyder

02-08-2008, 01:48 PM

Hey Guys. This includes myself. We need to stop this mess before we let the uneducated and bigoted mentality of one person get us all in trouble on the forum. The warning need to be issued to the originating party who took the jab at a "perceived class" of people and that will hopefully stop his tirades against someone else.

I think there is some misunderstanding of Aaron Kennedy's post here. He quoted a published article, and he mentions that many of the deaths may be caused more by sociological issues than meteorological issues. As was noted, this event was forecast almost as well as it could have been (mentioned on Day 4-8 outlook, MDT risk on Day 2, HIGH risk on Day 1, PDS tornado watches out hours ahead of time, tornado warnings lead time was very good in most cases, etc). So, from a meteorological and warning system standpoint, the event was handled almost as well as it could have been. So, when it's well known that a tornado outbreak is likely (and occurring), how do we reduce fatalities in outbreaks like this one? If the warnings are out, if the TV stations are going wall-to-wall, how else do you tell people to heed the warning? Walker Ashley's article addresses such social factors as the relatively high density of mobile homes as a possible reason for the relatively high death count in similar outbreaks. Stats are stats, and I don't think many in here would argue that mobile homes are safer than most permanent homes. Statistically, deaths are much more likely in mobile homes than in permanent structures. In addition, statistics show that tornado outbreaks are more likely to occur after dark in the southern US, which means that people may need to take additional steps to ensure that they can receive warnings when they may be asleep.

More publications such as that by W. Ashley are needed to help understand the casualties that occur in various parts of the country in order to formulate ways to reduce such deaths.

Perry Williams

02-08-2008, 02:01 PM

This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.

Let's wait and see what the circumstances of the tornado victims were and final intensity of the tornadoes before automatically assuming the large death toll is due solely to mobile homes being struck. These tornadoes were very intense and moving over 60 mph in some cases; the deadliest tornadoes in Tennessee and both Alabama killers occurred well after dark. In addition, this outbreak occurred on an evening when many residents of the affected areas were tuned to national cable networks watching coverage of the Super Tuesday primaries; many were thinking only about politics......not the rapidly approaching deadly storms. IMHO if these tornadoes had occurred on Monday or Wednesday evening and night, the death toll would have been considerably less.

Jeff Snyder

02-08-2008, 02:10 PM

IMHO if these tornadoes had occurred on Monday or Wednesday evening and night, the death toll would have been considerably less.

Fantastic point that I don't think is being considered by many (myself included).I didn't think about the fact that many people were probably watching cable news networks that night either. As you noted, it would have been interesting to have seen the number of casualties if the outbreak had occurred the day before or the day after Super Tuesday. Even this, though, continues to harken on the need for people to own weather radios! In many rural areas, I can only assume that outdoor warning sirens are not common, which further yet supports the necessity of a weather radio (and, possibly, more reverse 911 systems).

Do you (or other members) know how some of the local TV stations handled the severe weather risk the day before? I wonder if many of them mentioned it on their nightly news. I would certainly hope it would have been mentioned as a "pay attn to the weather!" day given the MDT risk in place on the Day 2 outlook. I watched CNN and MSNBC most of the Tuesday evening and night, but they didn't start to give much (if any) attn to the outbreak until ~10 pm.

Dennis Sherrod

02-08-2008, 02:11 PM

Jeff,
I will make one more reply to this and then I am done. There was not an argument or issue in statistics of what type structure contributed to the total number of deaths. I feel the problem came about because of a bigoted and uneducated remark pertaining to "Natural Selection" being to blame for deaths and how and what "states" these people lived. Read his statement, how it was written, and see what the actual definition is of "natural selection." Obviously this type of bigoted comment has offended many people, otherwise why did so many respond in the manner we did? If this is not true, than I might as well say that because I have a Master's Degree, two Bachelor's Degrees, live in a brick house and am twice as old as the one who wrote that, than I am less likely to be killed in a tornado and I am twice as smart. Doesn't make much sense, does it?

Dennis Sherrod

02-08-2008, 02:18 PM

Kiel Ortega

02-08-2008, 02:26 PM

I feel the problem came about because of a bigoted and uneducated remark pertaining to "Natural Selection" being to blame for deaths and how and what "states" these people lived. Read his statement, how it was written, and see what the actual definition is of "natural selection." Obviously this type of bigoted comment has offended many people, otherwise why did so many respond in the manner we did?
Aaron was referencing comments that people on the news were stating that they received no warning. His comments were aimed more towards to the people who supposedly received no warning when this event was so well forecasted and warned for. I don't think he was making any comments towards someone's class (as Jeff has noted); further, as Jeff noted, Aaron was quoting a study that came to certain conclusions about this area of the country (as Jeff also noted). So, like Jeff said, everyone just breathe. Further, if Aaron's post was so offensive why did it take nearly 2 days and several pages of posts for it to be brought up?! Exactly...so calm down.

I think there are some important issues (this maybe outside the scope of the DISC thread , though I would argue for this event it is not, but since it's being discussed here I'll just chime in) brought up: what the hell was the national media (minus the Weather Channel) doing on this event?! There were umpteen million (exaggeration) tornado warnings out and they kept coming out for several hours and they kept spreading across the country? At what point do the national networks think "Hey, this might be important" Regardless of the elections--I mean seriously how many times can they repeat who is projected to win a state--how did the national media not jump on an obvious real-time, life-threatening situation?! I think it's pretty pathetic that even the next day it was difficult to get info of the damage off their pages due to the elections and the results of Heath Ledger's autopsy (OMFG!). I don't think they really jumped on it until they had nice "pretty" pictures of the damage. Overall, I think they local media outlets did great...not so much for their national partners.

Karen Politte

02-08-2008, 02:31 PM

I think there is some misunderstanding of Aaron Kennedy's post here. He quoted a published article, and he mentions that many of the deaths may be caused more by sociological issues than meteorological issues. As was noted, this event was forecast almost as well as it could have been (mentioned on Day 4-8 outlook, MDT risk on Day 2, HIGH risk on Day 1, PDS tornado watches out hours ahead of time, tornado warnings lead time was very good in most cases, etc). So, from a meteorological and warning system standpoint, the event was handled almost as well as it could have been. So, when it's well known that a tornado outbreak is likely (and occurring), how do we reduce fatalities in outbreaks like this one?

Jeff,

I've no desire to get enbroiled in a right vs. wrong or an argument about who said what - but I do feel that you've exemplified my previous points quite well. I feel that we are still thinking from a CHASER'S standpoint - not a civilian's. I work with 35+ common-or-garden Arkansans on a day-to-day basis and I can guarantee you that not one of them knows what a Day 1 Outlook is, a PDS watch is, or knows the exact meaning of a high risk, or even knows of the existence of sites such as THIS (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/), let alone how to utilize them. Case in point - over the past two years, I have sent out hundreds of emails at my workplace, linking to severe weather resources at SPC and the NWS when a severe event is in the making. No matter how many people I write to and no matter how many 3-page emails I send to my colleagues telling them where the best and most reliable source of warning and watch information can be found - they STILL come to me on the morning of a severe event and say "Oh Karen - I saw the weather this morning on Channle Eleven and Fox O'Brien says it's going to get real bad up our way sometime today - right??". Deeeeeep breath. Therefore, by posting about these facts - we are indeed only "preaching to the choir", nothing more. We can wax lyrical about how amazing the SPC's Day 2 and Day 1 outlooks were and how they "nailed it" here on ST or WX-CHASE or CFDG or WUnderground or any other of the wx forums - but the fact remains that we are not the public. We are not the people in Clinton, AR who now have no home left.

And, for what it's worth, I tend to agree with Randy etc. regarding Aaron's post way back on page 4 or wherever it was. His points are true to a certain degree - but his delivery was pretty poor and the odd comment about our good old ST buddy "natural selection" was not only a bit harsh on the families who have lost loved ones to this outbreak but also rather offensive to certain people.

KL

Jeff Snyder

02-08-2008, 02:43 PM

Jeff,

I've no desire to get enbroiled in a right vs. wrong or an argument about who said what - but I do feel that you've exemplified my previous points quite well. I feel that we are still thinking from a CHASER'S standpoint - not a civilian's. I work with 35+ common-or-garden Arkansans on a day-to-day basis and I can guarantee you that not one of them knows what a Day 1 Outlook is, a PDS watch is, or knows the exact meaning of a high risk, or even knows of the existence of sites such as THIS (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/), let alone how to utilize them. Therefore, by posting about these facts - we are indeed only "preaching to the choir", nothing more. We can wax lyrical about how amazing the SPC's Day 2 and Day 1 outlooks were and how they "nailed it" here on ST or WX-CHASE or CFDG or WUnderground or any other of the wx forums - but the fact remains that we are not the public. We are not the people in Clinton, AR who now have no hom
KL

Karen,

We're still saying the same thing. From a METEOROLOGY standpoint, this event was handled almost as well as possible. I used the SPC outlooks, watches, and warnings as examples of how the meteorology/science part of the event was anticipated, forecast, and warned.

From a SOCIOLOGICAL perspective, though, the question is how the warnings were received, and what people did when they received them. What did people do when they heard the sirens?
If there were no sirens, how many people had a weather radio to receive the warning?
For those who knew they were under a tornado warning, how many people actually took action?
If people went outside to work for a little bit, did they know there was a risk of tornadoes, and what did they do to ensure they would receive warnings while they were out-and-about?
How many of the deaths occurred when people went outside to try to "find" the tornado?
If we are talking about mobile home parks, how many people took shelter at the home parks' tornado shelters (if they had shelters)?
If we are talking about permanent homes, WHERE did people take shelter?
Did people go to someone else's home if they felt their home was unsafe (no basement, no center room, no shelter, etc)?
If people knew they were under a tornado watch, and they knew there was a tornado outbreak earlier, how many went to bed without any way to receive the warning?

There are a myriad of questions that need to be asked to figure out how to reduce life loss. Of course, some people likely just got unlucky and had to face an extremely strong tornado that left a much reduced chance of survival. But I have a feeling that many deaths will not be from "unsurvivable situations". Many people have survived direct hits from even EF5/F5 tornadoes, so there really isn't too much that truly is "unsurvivable" (really only the "foundation wiped clean" events with no basement, underground shelter, or safe room). Yes, again, SOME situations are difficult to survive, but I think it's much more common than not for there to be a "best action plan" that would significant reduce the risk of death if enacted.

Most of this is what I'll call the "action" part of the warning system. The issuance part of the warning system (largely consisting of the NWS, SPC, and local media outlets)did it's job. The action part (the public who receive the warnings and must act upon those warnings) appears not to have gone so smoothly.

EDIT: Per Randy's post below -- it's great to hear that some (presumably, many) did take precautions and did take action when they heard the warning!

Randy Bowers

02-08-2008, 02:50 PM

To address Perry’s comment regarding many folks watching the national cable networks—that is certainly a good point. Having not watched the national coverage myself, I cannot say to what extent the national news networks were breaking into coverage of the primaries. Based on Kiel’s comments, it seems like they didn’t do a particularly good job at cut-ins. That’s a problem that needs to be address, in my opinion.

To address the mobile home issue—yes, it’s no secret that the south has a higher percentage of people who live in them. However, there are so many more factors to this event that need to be considered.

From HUN’s blog:

“We met a father of 3 who heard the warning via NOAA Weather Radio, woke up his family and ran 150 yards to a storm shelter they share with a neighbor just in time as the tornado hit. In fact, the force of the wind blew the shelter door out of his hand. He recounted in vivid detail holding onto his wife and children to keep them from being sucked out.” – From Chris Darden, SOO

“Another wonderful story was the lady who woke to the NWR tone alert and hid in an interior closet. Their two story brick home was leveled, but she survived with cuts and broken bones.” – Also from Chris Darden

Reading further, it was obvious that this event impacted Chris quite a bit. You also gain the sense of how much of an impact this event had and thus understand how so many lives could have been lost.

“I can't get the images of childrens' toys laying in rubble out of my head. Of course, there will be another "big event" to come along in the future. I, for one, won't be quick to forget February 6th or the residents of Lawrence County that were impacted by this one.”

This blog entry is worth reading.

And as for taking a deep breath, I’ll take a deep breath when less people are killed in significant tornado events such as Tuesday's.

Brett Roberts

02-08-2008, 02:55 PM

I'm not sure anyone thus far has invoked a regional-stereotype explanation for the death toll ("dumb Southerners"), so I'm not sure where or why that idea got started. Seems overly defensive on the part of those who brought it up.

On that note, I have to say, it seems just about every aspect of a typical Southeast outbreak is working against efforts to keep people safe:

- Often after-dark
- Often during the cool season when, right or wrong, many believe tornadoes are unlikely
- Extremely fast storm motions
- Poor terrain for visibility
- Poor visibility/messy HP character of the storms themselves
- Greater/more spread out rural population

Taking this into consideration, I'm not so sure awareness is much worse in the South than in the Plains; or at least it's difficult to accurately discern if that's the case based solely on the higher death tolls. The same level of awareness that saves you from a 4:00 PM cone put down by a 30 mph classic supercell with 1000 m LCL's in May in Kansas may be completely insufficient in a nasty outbreak like this Tuesday's.

Plus, I have to say, I've seen plenty of signs of pathetic cluelessness in the Plains, too. I once ran into an older woman who claimed to have been a survivor of the May 3 event in Moore. She said she took shelter in an interior room just in the nick of time after seeing the wedge approaching from less than a mile away. Her explanation for why she didn't heed advance warning? She had "heard" on the news that the tornado had already "passed by" Moore and was now moving on to Bridge Creek - 10 miles to her southwest. If this doesn't demonstrate the fact that some people are beyond saving even in the face of modern warning systems, I don't know what does.

I guess my point is that the explanation for higher death tolls in the SE need not rely on the intelligence or socioeconomic status of that region's inhabitants, so there's really no reason to get up in arms about it!

Karen Politte

02-08-2008, 03:04 PM

Karen, thank you. That was beautifully written. I thought I would have something to add, but I kept reading and you pretty much covered it.

This was the cover of The Batesville Daily Guard yesterday. I assume it's okay to post this photo, since credit is given. This is a captured video still taken by Chris Williams from Lunerburg, AR, which is sw of Sage & Zion, at 6:20 Tuesday. I believe he was about 5 miles from the tornado when he got his video (KAIT-8 Jonesboro is attempting to track down the video today -- if/when they do, I am sure it will be available online). I was about 2 miles away when I saw it; at that time it had more of a stove-pipe look to the base, with the wedge shape on the sides. Judging by the damage at the place where I saw it, I think it may have been lifting slightly at that time. The damage at this area was through heavy forest, and the tops are now sheared out of the trees for a good ways, and probably 1/4 mile wide.

EDIT: I forgot to say that this was captured during a lightning flash; he had back-lighting at the time, and there was more daylight at 6:20 than when I saw it at around 6:35.

Heidi,

This is a spectacular image. I would like to research more about it. I'm stunned at the abundant daylight this far northeast of Clinton on the evening of Feb. 5th. What else does that newspaper article say with respect to the location of this photograph/video still? I cannot locate Lunerburg AR, but I HAVE found Lunenburg AR - which is SSW of Melbourne AR and I am assuming that this is the correct place. Perhaps you could fill me in? Did the photographer give any other details? Time? I thought the tornado was hitting Clinton right at dusk - and Lunenburg has to be at least 20 miles NE of Clinton.

This image is absolutely amazing - I'm surprised that I haven't seen it before now. I am sure that it will be distributed wider and wider once it receives publicity. Somebody HAS to get their hands on that video.

KL

Perry Williams

02-08-2008, 03:17 PM

Fantastic point that I don't think is being considered by many (myself included).I didn't think about the fact that many people were probably watching cable news networks that night either. As you noted, it would have been interesting to have seen the number of casualties if the outbreak had occurred the day before or the day after Super Tuesday. Even this, though, continues to harken on the need for people to own weather radios! In many rural areas, I can only assume that outdoor warning sirens are not common, which further yet supports the necessity of a weather radio (and, possibly, more reverse 911 systems).

Do you (or other members) know how some of the local TV stations handled the severe weather risk the day before? I wonder if many of them mentioned it on their nightly news. I would certainly hope it would have been mentioned as a "pay attn to the weather!" day given the MDT risk in place on the Day 2 outlook. I watched CNN and MSNBC most of the Tuesday evening and night, but they didn't start to give much (if any) attn to the outbreak until ~10 pm.

Thanks Jeff! I live in the metro Atlanta, GA area.....even though this area was never highlighted in a moderate or high risk area by SPC, both evening newscasts I watched on Monday mentioned the possibility of damaging storms in this area late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Several friends are meteorologists in northern Alabama; I know they were very concerned about the possibility of damaging tornadoes occurring in their viewing areas during the overnight hours (Huntsville-Decatur; Birmingham), and related this concern to their viewing audience.

Tim Vasquez

02-08-2008, 03:30 PM

This is a warning:

Any further discussion or reaction to the controversial remark that appeared several pages back is prohibited and will result in administrative action. Our rules specifically prohibit users from using the forums to impose their own personal standards on other users. This kind of thing not only starts flame wars but derails the topic and regurgitates the controversy. Discussing it in Stormtrack Community is not a solution as it still violates the rules.

If you don't like what someone says, contact a moderator privately and forget about it. If you don't like a person's comments, you have an Ignore List in your User Control Panel. Use it. There's plenty of other great points here to discuss. We do not look favorably on controversial posts and don't let them go unnoticed, but on the same token we are not going to spend our time deleting everything that can be construed as insensitive.

Discussion of the socioeconomic factors is fine, but keep it on topic and leave matters of someone else's taste or sensitivity to the staff.

Tim

John Farley

02-08-2008, 03:35 PM

Jeff and Perry,
Good point on the political coverage and cable networks. I have often wondered why the cable companies do not find a way of broadcasting some type of warning, tone or otherwise, to advise people to tune to their local stations for more info. I am sure the technology is there.

This issue came up on WX-Chase as well, so I will paste in a post I made there about this issue:

"Not sure how widespread this is, but in our area the cable systems can break in
on all cable channels to give storm warnings and other emergency information.
They have "required tests" on a regular basis. I thought this was mandated
nationwide now, but maybe not. I do know this system exists at least in
southwest Illinois and northern New Mexico, as I have seen these periodic tests
in both of these areas, but I am not sure whether or not it exists everywhere.
Thought it did, but maybe not."

Since I made that post there was a response saying the capability exists many places but is inconsistently applied. So maybe what is needed is consistent nationwide application. Clearly, the technology is there.

Aaron Kennedy

02-08-2008, 03:43 PM

Whoah whaoh guys. Settle down. No where did I stereotype in my post. Heck, I'd be the pot calling the kettle black considering I spent half my childhood in North Carolina and South Carolina and still have family in NC. I think you need to reread the last couple sentences of my post (as Kiel seemed to get my point sufficiently).

What does one have to do to convince people in these states that late winter/early spring is "showtime" for tornadoes? Although we can certainly improve our understanding of QLCS tornadoes and improve POD/FAR for tornado warnings in general, one can't help but think the problem is more sociological rather than meteorological.I absolutely realize that some deaths are not preventable, even given people take adequate shelter. THAT SAID, I know for certain at least some (maybe a majority) of them were. In addition, death rates for even strong tornadoes is pretty low (see the Union University campus). What it comes down to is educating the public on the dangers of tornadoes (when, where, etc.) AND the limits of our present warning making skill. Heck, I think many of you touched on that after I implied it with my sociological comment.

I could list pages of quotes from people interviewed that demonstrate we have work to do. I also plenty of quotes from people that attempted "natural selection" and lived to tell about it.

BTW: I stand by my description as being natural selection (but please note I didn't mean for this to be a blanket description). If there is a legitimate threat on your life, wouldn't you take precautions? It's no different than people killed in small accidents because they didn't strap their seatbelt on. If I were to move to California, the first thing I would do is learn about earthquakes/wildfires.

As a side, this has nothing to do with the south although Brett made a good list of reasons of why the south probably feels the biggest hurt. Last summer we had an EF-4 tornado in my county. One person was killed. This person was in a mobile home. His wife heard the warning and sought shelter (outside of the park) with friends. Her husband was stubborn and stayed behind with the "it won't happen here" mentality. Unfortunately, he paid for his decision with his life.

My apologies to those that took offense. Obviously I feel bad for those that lost loved ones. That said, it frustrates me when we do almost a perfect job meteorologically and yet we still end up with high death tolls.

Tim Vasquez

02-08-2008, 03:46 PM

For the record, Aaron posted that response within minutes of my own post preventing further discussion of the controversy, so we are going to let it stand. No more comments about it please except between each other in PM.

Tim

Rich Thompson

02-08-2008, 03:58 PM

Deaths in well-anticipated tornado outbreaks are frustrating, but I think they're almost unavoidable. Most of us watch the weather 24/7, but how many have had to make a life or death decision regarding a tornado after dark? I haven't, and I hope I never do.

Lots of factors contribute to someone being injured/killed, ranging from their awareness/weather experience, available shelter, available escape routes, visibility, time of day/season, and part of the country (how that impacts construction, weather awareness, etc.). It's difficult to say which of these plays the biggest role in any particular situation, and we can't ask someone who's no longer with us.

I seem to recall that the 3 May 99 tornado in the OKC area damaged/destroyed ~10,000 structures, and about 30,000 people resided within the damage path. Roughly 30 fatalities converts to 0.1% death rate in a large, violent tornado. Awareness was pretty high, it was before dark, and storm motion (~25 kt) allowed more time to react. Still, 30 lives were lost. To totally avoid deaths, we'd need to have everyone in the F2+ damage areas leave prior to the tornado, but we don't know those *exact* areas even seconds prior to the tornado! So, we'd have to evacuate 5 to 10 times (just a guess) the number of people that would be impacted, or *everyone* needs underground or reinforced shelter. The latter suggestion is the only thing I see as possible, *if* such structures were required and/or subsidized. That still doesn't account for folks on the road. All in all, it's surprising that *only* 30 people died.

I can understand the feeling of helplessness or frustration. I watched the radar images Tuesday evening and figured there was no way there wouldn't be fatalities. But what else can be done, aside from continuing to work with people to convey the threats?

Rich T.

Randy Bowers

02-08-2008, 04:07 PM

I wanted to address a few of the questions that Jeff posed...

From a SOCIOLOGICAL perspective, though, the question is how the warnings were received, and what people did when they received them.

From my prospective, having lived in both Oklahoma and Tennessee, I can say that the method at which warnings are received is quite different. The media in Oklahoma is substantially more aggressive with their coverage. Live images of the actual tornado during severe weather coverage are much less frequent in the Nashville market, for example. This is due to the fact that it is much more difficult for the local media to obtain these images due to terrain, convective mode, and frequency of nighttime tornadoes, much the same that it is difficult for chasers to have a successful chase in that area.

The ability for people to actually see the tornado live from Ranger 9, or KFOR’s tower-cam is a big factor, most likely. Psychologically speaking, seeing a large and violent wedge tornado does more than a scientific explanation from the local television met as to why there is an oddly shaped polygon over your county.

What did people do when they heard the sirens?

The population distribution in Tennessee is much different than in Oklahoma. Tennessee could still largely be considered rural, with large population centers such as Memphis and Nashville analogous to Oklahoma City and Tulsa. However, the population distribution differences lie outside of these major metropolitan areas. In Oklahoma, a rural county usually has most of its population concentration very near its county seat, with outlying portions of the county being rather rural farmland. In Tennessee, this is not necessarily the case. Population of a rural county is often scattered throughout the entire county with somewhat more concentration of population near the county seats.

http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c336/rb4341/mont.jpg

Notice in the above image from Google that 5-20 acre tracks with a modest ranch home (and, yes, in some cases a mobile home), are common. This makes tornado sirens much less effective than in Oklahoma.

Also, notice the west-southwest to east-northeast oriented road. Tennessee roads are not on a grid as they are in Oklahoma. There's more opportunity for a tornado to parallel a road with a concentration of population in Tennessee than Oklahoma, if you consider the typical direction that many tornadoes travel.

How many of the deaths occurred when people went outside to try to "find" the tornado?

This certainly could have been a factor that contributed to the number of deaths. However, you can argue that people in the South have accepted that they wouldn’t be able to see it and thus opt to take shelter rather than stepping outside for a glimpse.

If we are talking about mobile home parks, how many people took shelter at the home parks' tornado shelters (if they had shelters)?

Tornado shelters in mobile home parks are undoubtedly a big issue. This is something that Dr. Doswell has commented on extensively in many of his presentations. It remains to be seen how much of a factor this was in Tuesday’s event. But, at this point it doesn’t appear that large number of deaths occurred due to folks remaining in their mobile homes as was the case on November 6th 2005 in Evansville, Indiana.

Dennis Sherrod

02-08-2008, 04:15 PM

I read in the newspaper today where the Governor of Alabama was reporting that there are numerous rural locations throughout Alabama and other states that are still without weather warning sirens and that not everyone can afford to purchase weather radios. <(paraphrased) This is obviously true here and throughout numerous other areas throughout the U.S. As has been mentioned before, not everyone has the enthusiasm we do about severe weather and not everyone, sadly, can see it appropriate or feasible to be able to afford to spend the money on weather warning devices.
Warnings and education obviously play a large part in the overall picture of helping to eliminate some of the deaths and injuries. Maybe through our work, some type of charitable work sometime down the road, and some of our other efforts, we can all play a part in helping to save some of these lives that are lost each year.

Brian Emfinger

02-08-2008, 04:25 PM

Heidi updated the post about the picture to say that it was a vidcap with lightning and back lighting responsible for how it looks. Its certainly not easy to tell with the quality but as of right now I am skeptical to its authenticity.

EDIT: Definitely authentic. Kevin Ash posted this link to the video its from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEVmCvA6ujc

Brian Emfinger

02-08-2008, 05:23 PM

from NWS Little Rock today:

A MEMBER OF THE QUICK RESPONSE TEAM WAS IN ARKANSAS TODAY TO
EVALUATE DAMAGE FROM ATKINS TO CLINTON...MOUNTAIN VIEW...AND
HIGHLAND. A SINGLE TORNADO MAY HAVE TRACKED THROUGH THESE
AREAS...WITH THE TORNADO GIVEN AN INITIAL RATING OF AT LEAST EF3.
THE RATING HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO EF4.

Kevin Ash

02-08-2008, 05:35 PM

Here is a 28 second video clip from Izard County, AR. The picture posted earlier from the newspaper is a capture from 14 seconds into this video. You also get a good glimpse of the tornado again near the end at 25 seconds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEVmCvA6ujc

Also found some video from Oxford, MS that shows some great structure and some close lightning strikes. Be warned that if you have kids around or are offended by bad language you'll want to turn the sound down.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3LVeCqEtRA

Heidi Farrar

02-08-2008, 08:58 PM

I cannot locate Lunerburg AR, but I HAVE found Lunenburg AR - which is SSW of Melbourne AR and I am assuming that this is the correct place. Perhaps you could fill me in?

I've talked to Karen about this already, but in case anyone else was wondering: On my DeLorme topo map it says Lunerburg. On the Batesville Daily Guard it says Lunenburg. I trusted DeLorme, because, well, I've read the local newspapers in the past and have come to expect typos and misprints! ;):)

jladue

02-08-2008, 10:19 PM

I'm writing this post in regards to the comments about whether anything can be done to mitigate deaths in tornadoes amongst residents living in less than fortress buildings. I've surveyed a number of tornadoes in the southeast US and in the Plain states. Honestly the only difference I've seen is that the southeast US tornadoes typically occurred at night and were fast moving leaving someone with little recourse but to 'ride it out'. The demographics were similar for where people lived. A lot of people live in modular homes in both regions.

So the question I ask is how much can a homeowner do to make his/her structure more survivable? I really don't know the answer to this question because there are so few studies available.

Recent code changes in hurricane zones require mobile homes to have more frequent anchorings (I think 4' on center) and straps around the metal frames. The Lady Lakes tornadoes took everything above the frames of these new mobile homes. IOW, the next weakness of the mobile homes was exploited by the tornadoes: the cheaply connected stud walls.

I'm sure the better anchored frames may have allowed lives to be saved. Any homeowner who anchors his/her frame better takes one step up the ladder of survivability. But if everything's taken off above the frame, survivability is not likely to be very good. However, I've documented damaged mobile homes reduced to one wall where the occupants survived because of that wall. I'm more confident that it may not take much to allow at least one wall standing. What if the same homeowner who beefed up the frame anchoring added clips to the mobile home load path? Clips cost a single $. Add 150 of them and ideally you could get a big boost in survivability for relatively little cost. Now it's not always that simple to retrofit because you have to get behind the walls but I think the idea has been made.

Even with $150 worth of clips installed and a well anchored frame, a mobile home isn't going to be the fortress a concrete house may be but it could give you two steps up the ladder of survivability. Maybe more walls would be left behind. For someone barely able to make ends meet, perhaps $150 and a little sweat equity isn't so daunting.

Jim

Kevin Statler

02-09-2008, 06:37 AM

60 dead now apparently,according to SPC. Another death from the jackson county,al EF4. Its only Feb folks,and so far this year 66 deaths..

Gene Moore

02-09-2008, 08:00 AM

Brandon,I believe the national false alarm rate for tornado warnings is ~75% for counties. I've only seen statistics for Jackson MS for one year several years back, when 11 tornadoes occurred and 99 warnings were issued (these numbers might be off a little). The JAN probability of detection was 100%, but the false alarm rate was 89%. Or, only 11% of their tornado warnings were accompanied by a tornado report somewhere in the county. We'll have to see how that changes with the polygon warnings.Rich T.
Hi Rich, calling it a false alarm rate (FAR) to me is inaccurate, at least with the respect to the Dopper radar. The reason, the Doppler detects mesocycones not tornadoes, that's always been its job and in that respect it has a very high success rate. Unfortunately when the original project was lobbied it was being sold for wind shear, correct. That was justified off Fujita's original work concerning aircraft safety, down bursts and commercial planes falling out of the sky. It wasn't just about saving lives, it was about general trust from the public about commercial flying. Of course now we have on board radar in the expensive aircraft. Voices started saying these Dopplers will protect us against tornadoes....I remember certain people trying to tell the truth, but they were drowned out. Thus the billions of dollars was spent to upgrade the most populated areas of the nation first, finally getting down to isolated areas like Goodland. In the rare cases when we do see a tornado on the end of the hook what we are actually seeing is the debris ball; again much larger than the typical tornado. Even with the new and more powerful radars coming on line how does one see a 100-150 meter wide event at 65 miles distant. That is pretty much what we are asking that piece of equipment to do. Frankly I don't think it's possible even before we consider (a) curvature of the earth and (b) the +.05 degree tilt for environmental safety. With respect to the Doppler seeing the mesocyclone, we know that's accurate and as chasers we can verify it's rotating. For example, how many times have you sat on a rotating mesocyclone for 1-2 hours before that supercell produced a tornado. Remember the Hill City event last season? The supercell sat in that area for how many hours before it finally produced a condensation funnel to ground, at least four, would that be a fair assessment? Meanwhile, the Goodland Doppler sees a potentially tornadic mesocyclone the whole time and warning after warning is issued, most counting as false alarms. I wish the public understood the relationship between what the radar is doing (correctly) vs true tornadogenesis. Armchair chasing on Feb 5th I watched a lone supercell take over from a cluster in far NE LA, it was the first supercell of the day. It move into SE AR and immediately spun up a strong meso. In fact it had meso signatures early on and base reflectivity showed a classic supercell configuration. Yet that storm as threatening as it was traveled for at least 100+ miles I bet, before starting to produce real tornadoes. As it moved north other cells formed and trained that supercell finally moving into the Memphis-western TN region. It was there when they really let loose with tornado after tornado. To not put the warning on such a cell early would be tantamount to duplicating the infamous Fort Smith event where hours of warnings were issued prior to the destruction in that city...with no warning. Some supercells produce tornadoes within 30-45 minutes, others wait hours, but in the end the tornadoes are just as strong.

rdale

02-09-2008, 10:11 AM

Hi Rich, calling it a false alarm rate (FAR) to me is inaccurate, at least with the respect to the Dopper radar. The reason, the Doppler detects mesocycones not tornadoes, that's always been its job and in that respect it has a very high success rate.

But the job of the meteorologist is to take doppler data, combine with other sources, and issue a warning... The FAR ratings are not a rating of 88D algorithms - it's a rating of what the end user gets.

I don't think 88D was sold as a wind shear project - everyone back then felt that a large majority of mesocylclones resulted in tornadoes. I do recall at least 50% being given out - now we realize it's 5%

Sam Sagnella

02-09-2008, 01:18 PM

It has officially been determined that the damage along a >120-mile long stretch of western into northern Arkansas was the result of a single, extremely long-tracked E-F4 tornado.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLZK/0802091857.nous44.html

Chris Hayes

02-09-2008, 01:48 PM

That is the longest track tornado since November 23, 1992.

Jim Tang

02-09-2008, 01:52 PM

There were well over 1000 tornado warnings issued for this outbreak yet there were 70 reported tornadoes, many of these we are finding out were long tracked tornadoes and multiple reports for the same tornado. This means the NWS is getting 4-6% of the warnings right and this was on a historic outbreak were the storms were actually producing tornadoes.

There were nowhere near 1000 tornado warnings issued during the outbreak. The total was a little over 200 tornado warnings from 16 NWSFO's.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=&showtopic=155131&view=findpost&p=2507699

As for the central MS having a high FAR, well I think many tornado enthusiasts know that JAN issues far more tornado warnings for marginal/weak storms than almost all other WFO's in the country.

Rich Thompson

02-09-2008, 02:51 PM

There were nowhere near 1000 tornado warnings issued during the outbreak. The total was a little over 200 tornado warnings from 16 NWSFO's.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=&showtopic=155131&view=findpost&p=2507699

As for the central MS having a high FAR, well I think many tornado enthusiasts know that JAN issues far more tornado warnings for marginal/weak storms than almost all other WFO's in the country.

The numbers I provided were from sometime around 1999. They have probably changed some since then (just a single year), and I know JAN has experienced more active years than the one quoted (all 11 tornadoes were F0-F1, I think). I don't know that I'd call JAN the most aggressive TOR warning office in the nation, however.

Rich T.

Rich Thompson

02-09-2008, 02:57 PM

Hi Rich, calling it a false alarm rate (FAR) to me is inaccurate, at least with the respect to the Dopper radar. The reason, the Doppler detects mesocycones not tornadoes, that's always been its job and in that respect it has a very high success rate. Unfortunately when the original project was lobbied it was being sold for wind shear, correct. That was justified off Fujita's original work concerning aircraft safety, down bursts and commercial planes falling out of the sky. It wasn't just about saving lives, it was about general trust from the public about commercial flying. Of course now we have on board radar in the expensive aircraft. Voices started saying these Dopplers will protect us against tornadoes....I remember certain people trying to tell the truth, but they were drowned out. Thus the billions of dollars was spent to upgrade the most populated areas of the nation first, finally getting down to isolated areas like Goodland. In the rare cases when we do see a tornado on the end of the hook what we are actually seeing is the debris ball; again much larger than the typical tornado. Even with the new and more powerful radars coming on line how does one see a 100-150 meter wide event at 65 miles distant. That is pretty much what we are asking that piece of equipment to do. Frankly I don't think it's possible even before we consider (a) curvature of the earth and (b) the +.05 degree tilt for environmental safety. With respect to the Doppler seeing the mesocyclone, we know that's accurate and as chasers we can verify it's rotating. For example, how many times have you sat on a rotating mesocyclone for 1-2 hours before that supercell produced a tornado. Remember the Hill City event last season? The supercell sat in that area for how many hours before it finally produced a condensation funnel to ground, at least four, would that be a fair assessment? Meanwhile, the Goodland Doppler sees a potentially tornadic mesocyclone the whole time and warning after warning is issued, most counting as false alarms. I wish the public understood the relationship between what the radar is doing (correctly) vs true tornadogenesis. Armchair chasing on Feb 5th I watched a lone supercell take over from a cluster in far NE LA, it was the first supercell of the day. It move into SE AR and immediately spun up a strong meso. In fact it had meso signatures early on and base reflectivity showed a classic supercell configuration. Yet that storm as threatening as it was traveled for at least 100+ miles I bet, before starting to produce real tornadoes. As it moved north other cells formed and trained that supercell finally moving into the Memphis-western TN region. It was there when they really let loose with tornado after tornado. To not put the warning on such a cell early would be tantamount to duplicating the infamous Fort Smith event where hours of warnings were issued prior to the destruction in that city...with no warning. Some supercells produce tornadoes within 30-45 minutes, others wait hours, but in the end the tornadoes are just as strong.

Gene,

I can't really speak for the motivations of the folks that started the whole WSR-88D project. However, by the time I joined the NWS in '92, the primary focus was on "20 minutes of lead time" for tornadoes. That's where our problems started.

The earlier Doppler radars were not collecting data unless a "big" day was expected, thus the early storm samples may have been biased toward high-end mesocyclones and tornadoes. Hence the old "50% of mesocyclones produce tornadoes" statistic. We've come to realize the fraction that produce tornadoes is much smaller, likely somewhere in the 10-20% range (depends on how you define a meso).

Gene is correct - the 88D almost never resolves an actual tornado, thus it's not fair to "blame" the radar for everything. In reality, the decision thresholds and situational awareness of the warning meteorologists play the biggest role in POD and FAR.

Rich T.

Alex Lamers

02-09-2008, 05:37 PM

Does anyone have a listing of the longest tornado tracks on record...and where this one would fall?

AJL

Karen Politte

02-09-2008, 05:38 PM

This thread is a great discussion of Tuesday's events. Thanks, everybody, for making it so interesting and informative to read! :)

Jason and I have returned from our damage survey of the single, long-tracked tornado that affected Pope County through Sharp County, Arkansas on Feb. 5th, 2008. We surveyed the damage path from Atkins, AR in Pope County, through Shirley, AR in Van Buren Co.

Unfortunately, daylight and roads available, coupled with extreme traffic congestion in Clinton did not allow us to follow the damage path of this tornado any further than approximately >10 miles northeast of Shirley, AR in Van Buren County and consequently this is where our own damage survey had to cease. We did not get to view the damage in the Mountain View/Zion/Highland areas.

Our preliminary impression of the damage by this tornado is somewhat lower than we had expected given the news reports etc. in the days preceding this one. There is, of course, a large amount of tree damage - however, about 85% of the tree damage we encountered was simply a case of the “blow-down”, there was a complete lack of denuded and debarked trees in all but a very select few cases. The majority of the trees we saw were shallow-rooted evergreen trees that had simply been blown over in their original place, with turf-ball still in place around the roots at base.

There were two or three instances along our survey journey that unearthed questionable high-end EF-3/low-end EF-4 damage to brick homes. One was in a rural setting southwest of Cleveland, AR, and the other was a foundation that was missing a home in Clinton, AR. We will have to review the photographic data that we collected prior to forming a firm opinion on the ratings these structures displayed, however. It does, however, seem very likely to us that this was one single tornado - given the frequency of tree damage encountered along many single track back roads that we ventured into. At various points in time road passage was difficult.

More later, including images.

KL

Brian Stertz

02-09-2008, 07:05 PM

I went back on list of the long tracked tornadoes since 1950 and found one that may get the asterisk. According to Storm Data (March 1990), the C. Nebraska long tracked F4 tornado on March 13, 1990 had a 124 mile damage track. In contrast, Tom Grazulis' green book mentions this was 124 miles consisted of different "tornado family" members.

At any rate, its remarkable how a tremendous violent tornado can remain in such balance to create such a long damage track. This especially in a colder winter type severe wx setup with the main 850mb jet displaced over towards the Mississippi River and points eastward (where 0-3km SRH was shown to be well over 500 ms/s2 by early evening). The benefits and support were certainly there with the main 700/500mb wave pivoting the NW 1/3 of Arkansas and the 90-100 kts. of wind at 500mb. :rolleyes:

afischer

02-09-2008, 07:41 PM

The only other recent extremely impressive tornado (with regard to path length) that comes to my mind is the Stockton MO tornado of 5-4-03, with a path length of ~83 miles. 120+ miles is unbelievable. The 00Z Little Rock sounding showed ~1800j/kg MLCAPE which was obviously more than sufficient amidst the strong environmental wind fields. The temp profile was also "cool" with a 3km deep moist layer and a relatively impressive 125j/kg 0-3km MLCAPE... not terribly dissimilar to the thermo environment on 5-04-03. Seems to me a lot of the nastiest tornadoes vastly prefer a cool profile rather than having a significant elevated mixed layer. (e.g. Greensburg)

Karen Politte

02-09-2008, 07:45 PM

Hey Brian,

That's interesting about that central NE storm with the 124 mile long track that may be one single tornado. I hadn't heard of that one - maybe I need to do some more research.

I'd edge away carefully from thinking that Tuesday's AR tornado maintained it's intensity for any significant length of time, however. It was certainly impressive to see a damage path continue uninterrupted for so far - but from our survey of the path today it was apparent that the vast majority of damage was in the EF-0 - EF-2 range. The track varied in width at several points - it was wide at Atkins, narrower at points northeast of there. Most notably however was the fact that - at points northeast of Atkins and southwest of Clinton, it was sometimes very hard to determine the damage path - the circulation appears to have got very diffuse and weak. It was still fairly wide - but the level of damage it was inflicting was greatly reduced compared to east of Atkins. Sometimes all we saw were some snapped twigs here and there. So - I would assert that this tornado went through several stages and morphs along it's path - and maybe have been multi-vortex in structure northeast of Atkins for a time. EF-4 damage is extremely hard to come by - as is EF-3. Mostly the tremendously long path consisted of nothing more than downed trees and sheet metal wrapped around fenceposts.

KL

Karen Politte

02-09-2008, 08:35 PM

Perry Williams

02-09-2008, 08:48 PM

Unfortunately, daylight and roads available, coupled with extreme traffic congestion in Clinton did not allow us to follow the damage path of this tornado any further than approximately >10 miles northeast of Shirley, AR in Van Buren County and consequently this is where our own damage survey had to cease. We did not get to view the damage in the Mountain View/Zion/Highland areas.

KL

Karen, from what I understand, some of the most intense damage occurred in the Mountain View and Zion areas. In that area, several vehicles were reportedly thrown several hundred yards; others are reportedly still missing.

Danny Neal

02-09-2008, 09:11 PM

Not directly related to this specific event but along the same topic, didn't the June 2nd, 1990 outbreak produce some long tracked single tornadoes? I seem to remember an F4 from IL into IN on the ground for almost 100 miles. I'll try to look it up on Wiki or one of those pages.

Is there a timeframe on which this single tornado occured? I haven't looked at the NWS Little Rock page since I am not home and am on a dial up connection and it would take 2 hours for it to load.

Brandon Clement

02-09-2008, 10:26 PM

There were nowhere near 1000 tornado warnings issued during the outbreak. The total was a little over 200 tornado warnings from 16 NWSFO's.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=&showtopic=155131&view=findpost&p=2507699

As for the central MS having a high FAR, well I think many tornado enthusiasts know that JAN issues far more tornado warnings for marginal/weak storms than almost all other WFO's in the country.

Thanks for the info. I read earlier that a NWS employer said over 1000 tornado warnings were issued. I think the reporter meant over 1000 warnings now that you have provided the correct info.

I did not realize Jan was viewed by most this way.

Rob Satkus

02-10-2008, 01:58 AM

NWS LZK has just issued another Public Info. Statement confirming that the AR tornado's path from Feb. 5th was 123 miles long - making it the longest confirmed tornado path since 1950. I imagine to top it one would have to look towards the Tri-State event and other historical markers.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/cgi-bin/wxs1.php?pil=PNSMAIN&max=13

KL

I believe they are talking only about tornadoes that have affected Arkansas...there have been at least 3 with reported longer paths since 1990 elsewhere, including the previously mentioned 3-13-90 NE tornado at 124.0 miles, the Brandon MS F4 tornado of 11-21/22-92 at 128.0 miles and the already noted 11-23-92 NC F3 at 160.0 miles...whether these were adequately surveyed I have no clue. I would expect there were others from 1950 - 1979 with longer paths as well due to lack of surveys/knowledge of cyclical supercells.

RS

mcrowther

02-10-2008, 12:07 PM

I believe they are talking only about tornadoes that have affected Arkansas...there have been at least 3 with reported longer paths since 1990 elsewhere, including the previously mentioned 3-13-90 NE tornado at 124.0 miles, the Brandon MS F4 tornado of 11-21/22-92 at 128.0 miles and the already noted 11-23-92 NC F3 at 160.0 miles...whether these were adequately surveyed I have no clue. I would expect there were others from 1950 - 1979 with longer paths as well due to lack of surveys/knowledge of cyclical supercells.

RS

Grazulis in Significant Tornadoes is of the opinion that the 1990 NE tornado event was a family and that the NC event was as well.

Also, if compare that NWS list to the Grazulis book, there are some startling discrepancies:

2/20/1951: longest path length in AR...7 miles.

4/30/1954: 3 separate tornadoes in AR with lengths respectively...35, 23 and 35 miles.

3/20/1955: 40 miles.

12/24/1982: one 55 miles, one 48 miles.

I wonder where the NWS office got their data?

jladue

02-10-2008, 12:47 PM

Gene,

I can't really speak for the motivations of the folks that started the whole WSR-88D project. However, by the time I joined the NWS in '92, the primary focus was on "20 minutes of lead time" for tornadoes. That's where our problems started.

The earlier Doppler radars were not collecting data unless a "big" day was expected, thus the early storm samples may have been biased toward high-end mesocyclones and tornadoes. Hence the old "50% of mesocyclones produce tornadoes" statistic. We've come to realize the fraction that produce tornadoes is much smaller, likely somewhere in the 10-20% range (depends on how you define a meso).

Gene is correct - the 88D almost never resolves an actual tornado, thus it's not fair to "blame" the radar for everything. In reality, the decision thresholds and situational awareness of the warning meteorologists play the biggest role in POD and FAR.

Rich T.

Check out Trapp et al. 2005 (http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2FWAF864.1)

Latest stats for a algorithm identified mesocyclone (somewhat similar to a typical user defined mesocyclone) extending to within 1000m ARL is somewhere between 30 and 40%. These are the best stats out there with the widest representation. The 10-20% number considers all circulations that have 3km or more vertical continuity, and are at least rank 5 (see this online session (http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dloc/topic5/Lesson19/player.html) about the mesocyclone detection algorithm). I'm sure the lower and stronger the circulation, the odds are even greater.

Another interesting project to consider is a project that Adam Houston at U of NE is undergoing. They're attempting to create a climatology of supercells, not just mesocyclones. That is, any mesocyclone algorithm cannot associate mesocyclones to its parent storm and so we don't have a good view of supercell climatology. Hopefully Adam's project can have some success in defining a percentage of tornadic supercells and relate the percentages to their physical structural details.

Aaron Kennedy

02-10-2008, 04:19 PM

Hopefully Adam's project can have some success in defining a percentage of tornadic supercells and relate the percentages to their physical structural details.

I'm not familiar with the project, but it seems it would be subject to the caveat the study only includes significantly precipitating supercells... IE for classic and HP archetypes. Many LPs can be pretty darn anemic on radar.

Brian Stertz

02-10-2008, 04:56 PM

Jack Beven

02-10-2008, 11:12 PM

Karen and all,

This description reminds me of something.

I was flying into Oklahoma City on May 5, 1999 when due to some snafu in air traffic control my plane did a 360 turn while on final approach. As a result, I wound up doing an inadvertent aerial survey of the Moore-Bridge Creek damage track.

One thing I was struck by was that it was a bit difficult to tell where the tornado crossed the Canadian River. There were well-defined tracks on either side of the river, but the damage swath was less well defined near the river itself. How much of this was due to changes in the tornado and how much due to changes in what the tornado hit, I don't know. I would say based on the changes in the track and what I've seen in chase videos that the tornado did undergo some changes while near the rvier, then regained its wedge form before reaching Moore. Maybe the chasers who saw it could comment further?

Jack Beven

Hey Brian,

That's interesting about that central NE storm with the 124 mile long track that may be one single tornado. I hadn't heard of that one - maybe I need to do some more research.

I'd edge away carefully from thinking that Tuesday's AR tornado maintained it's intensity for any significant length of time, however. It was certainly impressive to see a damage path continue uninterrupted for so far - but from our survey of the path today it was apparent that the vast majority of damage was in the EF-0 - EF-2 range. The track varied in width at several points - it was wide at Atkins, narrower at points northeast of there. Most notably however was the fact that - at points northeast of Atkins and southwest of Clinton, it was sometimes very hard to determine the damage path - the circulation appears to have got very diffuse and weak. It was still fairly wide - but the level of damage it was inflicting was greatly reduced compared to east of Atkins. Sometimes all we saw were some snapped twigs here and there. So - I would assert that this tornado went through several stages and morphs along it's path - and maybe have been multi-vortex in structure northeast of Atkins for a time. EF-4 damage is extremely hard to come by - as is EF-3. Mostly the tremendously long path consisted of nothing more than downed trees and sheet metal wrapped around fenceposts.

KL

Perry Williams

02-11-2008, 02:12 AM

I have gathered info from all the various damage surveys and have complied a list of the EF3 & EF4 tornadoes from the Feb. 5th/6th outbreak. Below is the link to the page on Vortex Times. There are still some details that have not been fully presented, and will update those as soon as they become available.

http://vortex-times.com/252608Outbreak

Hi Brian,
Just a FYI: per an article in yesterday's Huntsville, Alabama Times newspaper (link below), the death toll from the Lawrence/ Morgan county EF-4 has risen to 4......a critically injured 86 year old woman succumbed to her injuries at a Huntsville area hospital :(

http://www.al.com/news/huntsvilletimes/index.ssf?/base/news/1202638523211330.xml&coll=1

Take care,
Perry

Karen Politte

02-11-2008, 12:49 PM

Chad Cowan

02-11-2008, 01:32 PM

Per NWS LZK, they should make available later today a track map with map coordinates from ground/aerial survey data for the Arkansas EF-4 tornado from Tuesday last week. I will post a link when it is online.

It will be good to see this - because I am curious as to where the EF-4 damage was found along the track. I am thinking that this type of damage may have been located up in the Zion/Highland areas, which is the exact area we didn't make it to on Saturday.

Based on some LZK data I have looked at, I would have to guess the EF-4 damage is located ~ 5-10mi sw of Clinton. The radar presentation at this time was remarkable and if I calcluated with the correct storm motion, the G2G shear at this time was over 150kts. I will be posting some of these GR2AE images in the next few days.

Danny Neal

02-11-2008, 03:56 PM

Was there really a "tornado" over Nashville? http://youtube.com/watch?v=l5u-kqBjWj8 I among others were watching the webcam live over Nashville and saw that amazing CG along with the wall cloud passing right over downtown....here is a view that maybe one didn't see. Another "chaser" decides to go out when storms are around.

Heidi Farrar

02-11-2008, 09:11 PM

As just about everyone knows, the monster tornado of February 5th missed our house by 2.5 miles. However, the debris from the tornado has been showing up in areas more than 10 miles from the path. This afternoon I decided to go out and see what i could find in our neighbor's 200+ acres of fields. I rode around on their Kawasaki Mule and filled the Mule's bed with debris: huge pieces of sheet metal, so much insulation that I stopped picking it up, boards with nails sticking out, a broken broom ... but I was after more indentifiable stuff. Earlier I had found a piece of paper from a doctor's office. It was obviously from their filing cabinet, because the date on it was Nov. 2001. I thought that it had to be from Mt. View, about 35 miles to our southwest, since I know their small hospital got hit pretty hard. However, just as I was finishing up my loop over their property, I found something that literally blows my mind.

I happened to notice a rather clean-looking piece of paper on the edge of one of their fields. As I got closer, I could tell that it was an envelope, with some strange items lying next to and underneath it. I knelt down and saw that there was a return address on the envelope. It said Clinton, Arkansas. The envelope contained dental X-rays. And for the record, Clinton is 75 miles from here, "as the crow flies."

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/dentalrecords1copy.jpg
Here's the envelope, X-rays and the sign-in sheet. Notice insulation, shingles and boards in the background.

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/dentalrecordscopy.jpg
There's a close-up of the envelope. The blackish rectangles are the X-rays. ... One thing I've noticed about the paper debris I have found is that it is all folded very strangely, almost like a paper airplane, with multiple folds in interesting directions. It's not crumpled at all.

Finding the dental records has to be the most mind-blowing thing I have ever experienced.

Karen Politte

02-12-2008, 06:25 AM

I have managed to get our informal thoughts and pictures from our damage survey of the Feb. 5th record-long-track AR tornado online. You can view it here:

http://stormskies.com/OpenDoor/?p=204

http://www.stormskies.com/Atkins03small.jpg

Or of course just click on the link to my Blog in my sig.

It's a pretty casual damage survey and in no way detailed - and of course we failed to make it to the end of the path in Sharp County - but it was still a very interesting exercise and still provided me with yet another great learning experience w/r/t tornadoes. Unfortunately, we were not able to do a walk-through inspection of any of the damage property we saw - mostly due to the fact that all of the structural damage was on private property in remote areas. We also wouldn't have felt good about walking through the damage and ooohing and aaahing about this being unanchored or that being poorly built when those poor families are trying to pick up the remaining pieces of their lives.

Anyway - hope it provides food for thought for some.

As I sit in bed and write this, we have 39oF temperatures outside, thunder, lightning and hail. I love weather diversity.

KL

Sam Sagnella

02-12-2008, 08:05 PM

PEORIA, Ill. (AP) - Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) said Tuesday it expects assembly operations for a wide range of its machinery to be sporadically affected over the next few months due to tornado damage at a Mississippi plant.
-->Caterpillar sees disruptions on tornado (http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22971539.htm)

Alexandre Aguiar

02-12-2008, 10:36 PM

I do not know if someone already posted, but TRMM website has nice imagery of the Super Tuesday Outbreak.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Chris Hayes

02-13-2008, 11:22 AM

Anyone know the confirmed number of tornados from the Super Tuesday Outbreak. Wikipedia says 73 confirmed. Dont know how true that is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2008_tornado_outbreak

rdale

02-13-2008, 02:00 PM

It takes 6-9 months usually for a final confirmed tally.

Brian Stertz

02-13-2008, 09:24 PM

The May 3rd tornado did cycle a bit once it crossed I-44 on the north side of Newcastle as it moved towards the river. While it morphed into a stovepipe and then a multiple vortex structure....it never seemed to weaken below F2/F3 strength as long as I watched it.

John Peters

02-14-2008, 07:12 AM

NWS Little Rock has posted a GIS file with more detailed info on the 123 mile track. Looks like there were two segments of EF-4 damage: One near Clinton and one further northeast near Zion.

Here is the link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/html/svr0208a.htm

Danny Neal

02-18-2008, 02:35 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/surveys/images/020508/ss080205_why_not_nashville.php

An interesting read to say the least.

Heidi Farrar

02-18-2008, 08:09 PM

Just when you thought it couldn't get any more mind-boggling than the dental X-rays I found that originated in Clinton, AR ... This afternoon I found this:
http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/21808debrisAtkins.jpg
I need to take a macro photo of the critical lines so any disbelievers will be satisfied, but, you need to know that David's Garage & Wrecker Service is located in ATKINS, AR!!! If my measurements are correct, Atkins is 91 miles from where I found this on our neighbors' property. It was dropped in a grove of cedars just off of a perimeter road, near a field edge. I have been meaning to scour the field edges on their property (I have found almost every item of paper on field edges so far) for over a week now. It's hard to tell what else I haven't found yet, but realisticaly, I never expected to find something from this far away. When I first started looking around at all, I thought something identifiable from Mountain View would be pretty amazing (that's closer to me than Clinton). I'm pretty sure I'm finding stuff from their hospital, which was badly damaged, but so far I can't nail that down because nothing I've found has anything like a name or address on it.

Regardless, my husband and I had a very difficult time wrapping our brains around the concept that this piece of paper made such a journey across the Ozarks and just happened to land, in relatively pristine condition, right here! In fact, this piece is actually in better condition than the other items I have found! As I said: It's mind boggling!

Dennis Sherrod

02-18-2008, 08:32 PM

Heidi,
Your finding this debris reminds me of the April 1998 tornado that hit parts of Jefferson County, Alabama, and touched down a couple more times all the way into Georgia. From what I remember, it was an F5 that caused numerous deaths and injuries. The one point it devastated in western Jefferson County was called Oak Grove. My Mom lives approximately 32 miles in an easterly direction, as the crow flies, from this area. I remember finding numerous pictures, papers, pieces of cloth, insulation, and clothing all along a path of approximately 1/2 mile around her house. I was able to drive some streets and follow the approximate path it took overhead by the debris found in yards, trees, and on the street. There were news reports of debris (supposedly verified) of some papers and debris found in western Georgia where it again touched down that came from Oak Grove. This was over 80 - 100 miles away. I remember hearing some of these reports and seeing them on TV and they are very similar to your findings and match what I also found.

Gerard Jebaily

02-20-2008, 12:27 AM

An amazing find Heidi. Ive heard of items being found tens of miles from their origination but that is quite a distance. Have you tried to contact the owner of the shop to make sure that the document wasnt displaced by a truck doing a mobile call in the area at the time of the outbreak? Just a thought to wonder if even some of that incredible distance was made by more than wind. Nevertheless, im still calling this the SuperCELL Tuesday outbreak that will be in the history books.

Greg Stumpf

02-20-2008, 07:02 AM

There is an excellent online resource for a tornado debris project that took place at OU several years ago:

http://www.gcn.ou.edu/~jsnow/Research/Debris/ (http://www.gcn.ou.edu/%7Ejsnow/Research/Debris/)

Although the project is no longer active, there are some links to some excellent papers about the subject.

Heidi Farrar

02-20-2008, 10:04 AM

Have you tried to contact the owner of the shop to make sure that the document wasnt displaced by a truck doing a mobile call in the area at the time of the outbreak?...

If I'm correctly understanding what you mean here (I hope I am :) ), there are several details I can add to kind of wipe out the chance of that happening, the first of which being that I'm pretty sure that there is a 0% chance that a tow-truck from this shop in Atkins was anywhere near Izard Co. that day. ;) The main thing, though, is that the date on the slip reads July 30, 2002. With that knowledge, I have to believe this came from a filing cabinet. All of the dated material I've found, from magazine pages to this repair order slip, is pretty old -- that is to say not current.

My intentions are to contact the shop (and the dentist's office) at some point. I am a little sensitive about doing that right now, though, because I feel like it's still too soon. On that note, my neighbor had some business in the Clinton area yesterday, and while he was there he toured the damage in town. Before he got there I told him about the X-rays, and it turns out he had actually visited that specific dentist a few years back, so he knew excatly where the office was. I spoke to my neighbor again yesterday after he got back, and he told me there is nothing left of the place. So ... I'm thinking that right now they would probably not be too charmed to learn that someone's X-rays from their office, or in the case of the Atkins debris, a repair order from their shop, landed all the way up here. But I may be wrong ... it might be an amazing curiosity for them.

- Thanks for the link to the debris project, Greg.