3/6 - 3/7 FCST (Winter Storm): OK, TX, AR

[Lance Maxwell]

I am really surprised this hasn't already been posted, but it seems that all models are coming into agreement for a not atypical early March snowstorm for central, south central, and eastern Oklahoma down into far North Texas and northeast into Arkansas.

Conservative estimates are anywhere form 4-8 inches but some estimates are upwards of 16 inches.

Here are a few 12z maps to peruse:

12Z NCEP ETA:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_60HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

12Z NAM:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212-PARA_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

12Z GFS:
http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_54HR.gif

0Z GFS:
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_60HR.gif

[Billy Griffin]

Enhanced OUN web page does have a graphic up mentioning "heavy snow," but glancing at the AFD, it appears the same fly-in-the-ointment is as typical for Oklahoma... the TEMPERATURES. Not sure how that will verify with high temps forecast in the mid 40s as of now.

Personally, I can wish for two feet of snow all I want (I would love it!), but if this storm is typical of Oklahoma winter storms, we'll be lucky to see an inch of snow! (sigh)

[Brett Roberts]

I share Billy's reluctance to believe after the past few years, but I have to admit, I can't recall the two U.S. models agreeing on significant accumulations from this close to the event (30-42 hours) before now in my three winters here. Still, forecasts for winter events are often extremely dynamic around here, with the eventual outcome completely different than expected from even the short-range. I'm guessing we'll see a narrow swath of significant snows tomorrow somewhere in the OUN CWA into the TSA CWA, but probably not the apocalypse scenario depicted on the 12z NAM.

[mark plate]

The NAM/WRF has been absolutely dreadful all winter...you pretty much know what's NOT going to happen after looking at it. It's reached a new level today though with its 30+ inches of snow accumulation in parts of SE OK.

The NAM/GFS/NGM all show significant snow as far north as TUL/OKC, but the ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian do not. The non-U.S. models are normally best in this part of the country, so I'll be surprised if heavy snow makes it as far north as I-44 in central and NE OK.

Surface temps will initially be warm, but significant precipitation will result in evaporational cooling, so expect T/Td of 33/32 or 32/32 under the heavy precip Thursday afternoon. It will be warmest before the precip occurs and also north of the precip in NRN OK. Highs in the 40s look OK to me for this reason.

Parts of far SE OK will see more rain initially so snow amounts may taper off in Choctaw/McCurtain counties due to this reason...close call there though. If it changes over quick enough, this is the area that could see 10+ inches.

[Andrew Francis]

I've been watching this, and am hoping for it to track further north than models show right now.

I would love to get a decent snow here in Stillwater. All winter long we have been forcasted for 6+ inches several times... along with a couple icestorms....

Nothing has verified at all. I think we have seen 2 inches @ most of snow... The forecasting has been terrible in OK for winter storms this year... sucks.

[CHris Whitehead]

Just got off the phone with Alex Lamers who works with OUN and basically what this comes down to is 10miles. If you recall there was a significant snow event forecasted 2-3 days out last winter for the OKC metro area (cant remember if it was Jan or Feb) and everyone busted (OUN to TV) b/c the snow was about 20miles west of forecasted leaving Edmond/OKC/Norman with cold rain. Everyone was pissed. A potential repeat is possible but this time I cant blame OUN since I know how tough forecasting snow can be, esp when theres a sharp gradient forecasted. It all comes down to the track of the low. This one is going to be hella close for Norman.

[Ronnie Bradley]

On a side note, the NWS in North Little Rock, AR is hinting at "thundersnow". A tidbit from the winter storm watch wording:
FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR IN THE WATCH AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WOULD ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES IN SOME SPOTS. GIVEN THIS...LOCALLY UP TO A FOOT
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

THE WATCH INCLUDES AREAS NORTH OF MURFREESBORO...LITTLE ROCK AND
AUGUSTA.
I live in White County, AR so all of this will be interesting to watch as the situation
develops. I'm thinking that NW AR will get the lion's share. I might get 5 to 6 in. I don't forsee
the roads getting too bad since it was up to almost 60 today and will be in the 40's tomorrow
before the white stuff starts falling. That will happen tomorrow night after I get in from
work or shortly before.

[mark plate]

00Z WRF/NAM and 00Z NGM both trending south...not that those models mean much, but it is a trend towards the normally reliable models. Don't really see any way Norman or Tulsa get 4+ inches of snow. 4 flakes is much more likely than 4 inches. McAlester into Nrn. AR is the place to be for heavy snow.

[Brian Emfinger]

This is obviously way off on the totals as this would be the biggest snow ever and probably break several yearly records as well BUT its still fun to see 22 inches forecast:


http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_54HR.gif

[Jody Radzik]

NWS ABX was calling for 1-3" overnight at my house. This morning I woke up to 13" (http://nmupdraft.blogspot.com/2008/03/surprise-dump-of-08.html).

[Billy Griffin]

At least OUN is finally realizing that this WILL NOT happen for the OKC metro area. Going to be SE Oklahoma, and a major winter storm for Arkansas and points northeast.

Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled, as well, for the OKC metro.

Alas, the "Norman Bubble" wins again. (sigh, cry)

[Adam Penney]

NWS here in Fort Worth, TX has now issued a WSW for the Dallas Metroplex. Expecting now 2-5 inches north of I-20, and up to six inches near the Red River. This is just nuts for March! Should'nt we be talking about severe weather, not winter storms in texas!?!?!......;)

[Andrew Francis]

blah of course. After many storms tracking north of the OK central area.... finally ones comes further south... and its TOO far south...

I think the Norman bubble needs to be upgraded to the 'All of central OK' bubble.

[Brandon Lawson]

The NWS needs to stop issuing anything for central Oklahoma. They do it every time, and every time, nothing happens.

[Brian Emfinger]

I have 3 inches already but only because we are at 1650 feet. Some places in the higher elevations of the Ouachita Mtns of Western Arkansas will likely get a foot or more! I took a drive down the mountain earlier and got video of the difference in snow vs elevation...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0te959y1XoU

[Dave Holder]

What I don't understand is why OUN went nuts after seeing one model run of the GFS and NAM. Perhaps they need to begin checking for run-to-run consistency before going with the winter storm warnings.

I also find it funny how I've been living here in Norman for almost 4 years now, and I think that the Dallas metro has now seen more snow than my 4 years combined. Go figure...

Of course I've never seen a tornado in this state either! :confused:

[Amos Magliocco]

Snowfall up to eight inches was pretty common around Denton. A friend who lives north of Lake Ray Roberts measured a foot in his front yard by 5:00 PM. I drove around the city and took some photos. (http://www.cycloneroad.com/2008march6.htm)

http://www.cycloneroad.com/images/chase2008/CRW_1382_JFR800.jpg

http://www.cycloneroad.com/images/chase2008/CRW_1393_JFR800.jpg

[David Wagener]

There is definitely something to be said on how OUN, and other offices, handle Winter situations in Oklahoma versus elsewhere. I believe the use of the stronger worded winter advisories get overused way to much, especially in a forecast that has so many questions. Eventually people will start ignoring the winter headlines as they continue to go unverified.

I've been in OK for about 10 years now, after growing up in Ohio...which are two totally different animals when it comes to winter weather, but not without their problems. On the west end of Lake Erie snowfall forecasts are tricky because if the lake is too warm then it isn't shocking to see rain or rarely a reverse lake effect snow machine in action. For Oklahoma so far which these snow storms it comes down to simple moisture availability it seems. Looking at radar it should have been snow in OKC, but everything was evaporating about 1000' up or so.

The situation just needs to be handled better with headlines. Don't get all excited. If the setup has a ton of questions, go with the watch until you know for sure its going to happen. This is just like the snow and blowling snow advisories last week - umm why? It just seems when it comes to winter weather, OUN is still off by a few beats - or they are just bored and hoping Spring gets going soon. :)

[Patrick Marsh]

What I don't understand is why OUN went nuts after seeing one model run of the GFS and NAM. Perhaps they need to begin checking for run-to-run consistency before going with the winter storm warnings.

I also find it funny how I've been living here in Norman for almost 4 years now, and I think that the Dallas metro has now seen more snow than my 4 years combined. Go figure...

Of course I've never seen a tornado in this state either! :confused:

While this probably shouldn't be in a FCST thread, I'll post it here anyways as a reponse to your post.

The 06Z run on 5 March of both the NAM and the GFS jumped futher north and painted large QPF over central OK. Then 12Z runs on the same day of both models shifted slightly further south and east, but still had considerable QPF in central OK. The 18Z looked a little less ominous, however it still had hints of a winter weather event. (However, by 00Z the trend south and east was clearly evident.)

In my opinion, the real issue here is not the issuance of winter weather headlines (if this vent had verified, OUN would be reamed for not issuing), but the fact they went from no snow to 4-8 inches of snow (Winter Storm Warning) in a span of 6 hours. A watch would have been the prudent route - ironically, the places where the watch WAS initially issued are the places that actually saw the snow.

With this said, I'm not trying to criticize OUN. The fact of the matter remains that winter weather forecasting is one of the hardest things to do in all of meteorology. Imagine having to know the correct CAPE to within 1 J/kg...

[CHris Whitehead]

OK I wasnt going to say anything due to potential conflicts of interest but at this point, esp after Patricks' post, I will say that one fly in ointment that was clearly evident from the get go was the extremely dry air at the low levels. Models were (and I paraphrase from OUN discussion that Wed) attempting to overwhelm the dry air rapidly. But like Patrick said, a Winter Storm Watch would have been more prudent.

[mark plate]

Yes the GFS and NAM were north, but the ECMWF and UKMET were not, and neither was the Canadian. Personally I trust the ECMWF and UKMET much more than the GFS or NAM when it comes to significant weather events. And if the ECMWF and UKMET both agree, then it's almost a sure thing they will be close even if the GFS and NAM both agree on something totally different. I have seen this many times, and have yet to see the GFS and NAM be right when they are in agreement and far different from both the ECMWF and UKMET. This storm chalks another one up to the ECMWF and UKMET.