3/4 FCST: Thursday Southern Plains

[mrobinson]

discuss:

[Dan Cook]

Little Rock's forecast discussion talks about a "significant tornado outbreak" for Thursday.

http://kamala.cod.edu/ar/latest.fxus64.KLZK.html

[George Tincher]

Looking at last night's GFS, I really liked Thursday over the lower MS Valley region. Looking at this evening's ETA and GFS, I still hold that opinion. Both show identical winds at all levels with the ETA showing SE sfc winds @ 20...while GFS shows more sourtherly sfc winds. The winds shift around to SW and increase with height. The position of the sfc low appears similar with both models. Both show good temps and dewpoints. As of right now, Arkansas and Mississippi look pretty darn good, with W TN perhaps getting in on the action as well. Especially if the ETA has the correct solution. Both appear in pretty good agreement though.

The one thing I am not confident about is the time the storms will trigger and if convection from Wednesday will linger and be a factor. Otherwise, Thursday actually looks better to me than either tomorrow or Wednesday, but be cautioned I am a relative newbie when it comes to forecasting. Nevertheless, I think Thursday could be a nice day for folks who may be chasing in AR.

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Very strong forcing and nearly unidirectional wind profiles over Arkansas and adjacent states points strongly toward a squall line being the primary mode Thursday. There might be enough instability and shear in the near-surface layer to spin up a few isolated tornadoes embedded in the grunge. Storms will be racing north-northeast into colder air at 50 mph in tree-filled and hilly terrain. A very poor chase setup in my opinion.

I think the better chance for something chaseable might be down in the AUS/SAT/CLL area of Texas, where winds will be more veered aloft and forcing will be weaker as the front sags into upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints.

[Dan Cook]

First moderate risk of the year!

THIS ACTIVITY COULD INCLUDE A FEW
STRONG AND/OR LONG LIVED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.



:)

[Shane Adams]

We've abandoned today for tomorrow, regardless of chaseability or terrain. There's a better chance for daytime storms tomorrow, it's somewhat closer to OUN than where we'd need to be today, and I think there's a decent chance of tornadoes, be they embedded in grunge or from a discreet supercell at the end of a line.

Horrible chase country, fast storm speeds, and early March. Nothing we haven't tackled before. I'll wait until tonight to start analysis because I hate looking at models anyway, especially when they've still got the better part of a day to change their minds. I'll add anything I come up with here later.

How's that for a pansy, Dan? :twisted:

[Dan Cook]

How's that for a pansy, Dan? :twisted:

Talk is cheap; prove me wrong. :P :D

I wonder if the SPC'll go with a high risk on later outlooks..

[Kevin Statler]

Anyone see the new SPC Day 2? Looks interesting..


LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND FORCING IN
A CORRIDOR FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ARKLATEX AND SERN OK WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING. DEGREE OF SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION COULD RESULT IN
LONG-LIVED STORM ROTATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLIC AND FAST
MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.

Cyclic? Wow...

WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RACE NEWD INTO
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRENGTH OF FORCING AND WIND FIELDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND EVENTS...AND POSSIBLY
SCATTERED TORNADO REPORTS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM AR/MO TO
THE MID MS VALLEY.

[Jay McCoy]

The way this seems to be playing out I am starting to think of targeting Childress to Wichita falls and south to Abilene. Depends on the exact location of the warm front but it should be moving north close to the red river with the dryline punching east. Another Throckmorton day in store (and this time i wont be late). Long lived and cyclic tornadoes?? in March no less. The SDS gods have figured we suffered enough. Ofcourse all of this is subject to change on the next model run :D

[Shane Adams]

Looks like things have shifted significantly west for tomorrow, and with the way the models have been handling this low, it's no surprise, as it's been getting slowed with each successive run. Main fly in the ointment is the obvious linear forcing due to a gradual shift to negative tiltage (sorry MkeH :D ), but the LL shear is decent and those areas of strongly backed flow (especially earlier in the day) look to be the spots where we can get it done tornadically. Best positive is twofold: overall diurnal event plus the westward jog puts it into a bit of a better road network, although Tejas in general is but a few rungs above pathetic in most places.

I'm excited as now the gamble seems all on us: the storms and (probably) some tornadoes will be there, we just have to find them. I get a lot more excited when the chase is ours to blow, not the system's. Will keep posting wishcasts/thoughts as they occur to me. Our earlier money restraint (which I mentioned on the 3/3 thread before) has been remedied, so tomorrow is all out: we go where we have to go, be it OK/AR/TX/LA/beyond the sun......

[Jeff Snyder]

Very eery indeed...

Any way we can change the name of this thread? I suppose we include TX/OK anyways, but stilll...

I'm looking for the 12z model runs, but seems that NWS HQ had severe data problems earlier and things won't be up and running until ~21z . At any rate, I am very concerned about instability and capping. It seems that capping may be weak to begin with. While I'd like more instability to increase volatility, I am concerned that insolation and warmer sfc temps will further weaken the cap, such that we may end up with an uncapped environment (SPC leans this way). I seem to be reminded of April 23rd last year, when we had no cap and experienced several rounds of convection, which mixed the atmosphere and killed sfc-based instability. However, the NWS WFOs all seem onboard for this one... Looks like I may start west of DFW and see what goes from there. Like to stay near WF but hope for some breaks in clouds...

Jeff

[David Draun]

Sounds good, wish I was an actual chaser, that SPC wording for "cyclic supercells" has got to be promsing for chasers to have a good day. I'll just stay up here at NIU ( at the NW edge of the slight risk area). Maybe I'll see some storms that develop from warm-frontal moisture overrun. (high based convection probably) Not expecting to see storm structure on the count of the overcast. Maybe some lightning and hail? Nothing like the hail storm that developed over my campus on Monday. :(

[Shane Adams]

It's been my experience that great LL shear can make up for lack of significant cap: anyone who chased SW Oklahoma on 5-4-01 can attest to that. The tornadoes were fast-moving, buried in muck, and short-lived - but they were still awesome. I'd almost expect an ongoing type of situation tomorrow to gradually build into nastiness as the upper support adds fuel to the fire.

Tomorrow isn't going to be easy, by any stretch of the imagination: you're going to have to play chess all day long, staying 2-3 moves ahead of where you'd normally play. As of now, with storm speeds likely to be in the 50+mph catagory, I'm making my initation forecast then calibrating my target from there, in an attempt to be well ahead of the things as they get it going. A day like tomorrow (if current data comes to pass) isn't for the impatient, spoiled, or finicky; only the SDS-raged and tornado freaks like myself will want to swing at this one. A good road at the right time, you could play tag with a cyclic cell for an hour or more, a bad road and the game is over before it starts.

As I said before, when the pressure's on me to screw things up, I can live with that. Had much experience :wink:

[George Tincher]

Yep, tomorrow is starting to look pretty dangerous and the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex seems to be sitting smack dab in the middle of the highest risk area. Let's hope the media there does a good job of alerting residents this evening, tonight and in the morning, to have them prepared for the events that may unfold as the day progresses.

I am still unsure what tomorrow will actually hold in store. If things continue as the models currently show, it could be a big day. But let's not forget some of yesterday evening's models had everyone ready to jump off the nearest bridge. LOL. And earlier in the day it appeared it would be farther east of where it appears it will be now. So the models have been changing from run to run, going from good to bad to good again. From a chasing standpoint, let's hope the later runs hold. But don't get your hopes too high just yet. And from a safety standpoint, let's hope that any of these strong, long-tracked tornadoes (if they occur) mentioned by the SPC stay out of populated areas.

-George

[Kevin Statler]

hey,

I never realized or heard about the outbreak of April 2, 1982 but I found some stats.

61 tornadoes
30 deaths
433 injuries
4 F4's
29 F2+'s

so wow.....

[Robert B.]

There was actually an F-5 on April 2, 1982...Broken Bow, Oklahoma. Twin supercells....debris from southern supercell lofted and deposited in damage patch of northern supercell. Amazing day.

[Jeff Lawson]

Good info on April 2, 1982 here. (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/staff/hart/outbreaks/1982/19820402.html) And yeah, the apparent similarities are a little unnerving.

I have tomorrow off, so I'll be on top of things. My plan right now is to probably hang here at home in the DFW area as long as possible, waiting for a particular storm to catch my attention. With the fast storm motion, intervening muck, and the potential for tornadic supercells all over the place, I don't think being out in the field right at initiation will do much good. Better to stay out ahead, keep an eye on data, and then go after the closest, best-looking storm I can get.

It'll probably make for a short chase, as I'm not going to follow anything into East Texas.

[Jared Mysko]

Come on guys, lets not forget that it was APRIL 2, not MARCH 4. We are one month early in the season.

I predict the first MAJOR BUST of the year! Let's not get too crazy here, remember how many tornadoes we have had in North America this week? ONE? TWO? 30 or 40 tornadoes do happen right out of the blue.

Of course, we may have to move off the continent if it does happen this early. Maybe we will see 200 tornadoes a day in May! We should ask some native elders if this ever happened before this early. This is very difficult to comprehend today when it has reached -28 C this morning in Saskatoon! I will certainly be watching Thursday afternoon from my Igloo in the Great Northern Prairies!

bored with snow in saskatoon

Jared

[Jeff Snyder]

Yeah, but the time of year does not matter if the synoptic setup is there. Granted, climatology does say that large outbreaks are very uncommon this early in the season, but then again, climatogology usually does not bring systems in of this caliber/type/etc until later in the season... How often do we get upper 60Tds in northerrn TX in March? Exactly...

Jeff

[Chris C Sanner]

Sounds like we have a jealous Canadian on our hands if you ask me :wink:

I'm going out and I'm still searching for my target. Dunno if there will be a target either. I'm probably going to find the nearest storm moving my way that looks decent and pick it up, because finding a storm tommorow will be pretty tough (similar setup to April 23 last year except for the fact storms will be racing this time)

[Jeff Lawson]

Come on guys, lets not forget that it was APRIL 2, not MARCH 4. We are one month early in the season.

Tornado outbreaks have occurred in this part of the country in January and February. The atmosphere doesn't keep a calendar. With a late Spring airmass in place (73/63 right now at DFW) and a big negative tilt trough crashing in, something's going to happen regardless of what month it is.

Of course, we ARE still a bit cool, so instability will be an issue - especially with clouds and precip getting in the way. But with the sort of shear and dynamics will be dealing with, any discrete storm that goes up is going to rotate. With any localized backing of the surface winds, the tornado threat is going to increase significantly. And if an area gets dryslotted during the morning and early afternoon (and it looks like just that may happen across Central TX), we may see better instabilites than anticipated.

Granted, the whole thing could go squall line right off the bat, but with such a blockbuster system crashing into such a juicy airmass with such good shear, a big event seems all the more likely.

I'm a big pessimist when it comes to these early Spring setups, but even I'm watching this one very closely.

[Jared Mysko]

Sounds like we have a jealous Canadian on our hands if you ask me :wink:



Correct!

I just wanted to get my 2 cents in on this! Looks like its gonna be a fun day for you guys down south, just be safe Ok?

Jared

[Jeff Snyder]

Just a cautionary note that was brought to my attention... ;) ... This system is already behaving differently than the 12z ETA had forecast. It seems that there is a very large data void where the upper storm currently is located, and any analysis, much less any forecasts, seem difficult. Go read the DDC (Dodge City) Area Forecast Discussion for more info...

Jeff

[Matthew Hatton]

Yes be safe that's the main thing. I will be doing an armchair chase this time tomorrow although it looks like things might kick off earlier. I also notice on Weathertap that there is a decent southerly flow bringing all that juicy air up from the GOM at the moment. Is this setting the scene perhaps?

[John Cameron]

Very eery indeed...

Like to stay near WF but hope for some breaks in clouds...

Jeff

Good for you . . we aim to please :wink:

My day will begin around 2am :cry: That's why I dont get as excited about severe wx as those of you who actually get to "enjoy" it.

[Tim Marshall]

Yes, tomorrow sure looks great on paper. There are plenty of positives like low-level moisture, tremendous lift, a great dry punch, and tremendous directional and speed shear. But are there negatives? Yes, cloud cover for one. Timing of the surface and upper air is another. Also, any storms that do form will be racing off to the northeast. It will be like trying to catch a speeding train!! I just hope that when I wake up in the morning there is not a squall line from Abilene to Del Rio. So, these are my concerns. But, I can't worry about it. The weather situation looks to good to pass up. So, I've already taken tomorrow off work and have cleaned up the cameras, and checked the batteries. I'm ready for the first chase of the year. Good luck everyone. TM

[Kevin Walter]

The incoming wave certainly looks great on water vapor imagery, and it's muggy as can be down here in SE TX. Agree that the lack of real upper level data to feed into the models at this time may limit this system's predictability (but it may not even matter if we can't get model data anywhere). 00z soundins from across TX show decent lapse rates, so I'm not sure why model soundings keep tending to show horrible lapse rates (looks to be indicative of subsidence) in a layer between 500-400mb tomorrow. If that happens, we may be in for bust-city as shear rips apart CAPE-starved cu's that reach 20k' and fizzle. If the model forecast soundings are wrong, then we could be in for a show.

Either way, the A&M stormchasing team will be out in force tomorrow. We're tentatively targeting the I-35 corridor, but frankly we're just going to have to wait until morning to see. Either way, we plan on forecasting a location for initiation and then backing off of that about 60km to the NE, in hopes of picking off one of these storms before they leave us in the dust.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow.

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

I'm increasingly pessimistic about chasing opportunities Thursday. This system reminds me a lot of the high risk day on 6 April 2001, just displaced to the southeast.

The system is coming out very far south and with a slight negative tilt, so winds in the mid troposphere should back to nearly due south in much of the warm sector. This makes the shear profile actually quite marginal, about 40 kts of speed shear and very little directional shear in the 1 to 6 km layer.

The only area where there might be sufficient shear for significant supercells and tornadoes will be in the vicinity of the warm front, but I expect the area north of the front to be socked in with stratus and elevated thunderstorms in the morning. Given south to north storm motion, any storms that develop near or approach the warm front will quickly cross the boundary into the cold air.

I ran a Bunkers et al. storm motion estimate based on the 00Z eta for McAlester valid at 00Z tomorrow night, and right moving supercells are forecast to move out of about 210 degrees at 55 kts!! This is simply not a feasible chasing situation in such terrain. The best one can do, I think, is find a high spot and watch as a storm roars by.

I expect elevated hail-producing supercells to develop in the hill country up into southwest Oklahoma in the morning and spread northeastward. The storms developing near Midland currently should become more organized as they approach the metroplex and southern Oklahoma in the morning, eventually organizing into an intense squall line with embedded circulations.

[Jeff Snyder]

My concern is also the backed 500mb and above winds. The sfc to 850mb shear is awesome, but above that, the winds back with height. I'm hoping the 500mb low comes out farther north than SW TX, so as to veer mid-level winds across s. OK and n. TX... Again, though, I'm not putting toooo much faith in the models seeing how there is very little data collection near the low right now...

Jeff

P.S. -- this thing isn't going to do anything tornadic if the ETA CAPE forecast is correct... I mean, everything north of DFW has CAPE <500! Are you kidding me?! Yes, this is a dynamic system, but no way are we going to have long-lived, tornadic supercells with CAPEs ~250 J/kg... It's now a necessity that we get some clearing and sfc temps can warm up... otherwise we'll all be chasing weak, strongly forced, and strongly sheared storms moving at 70kts...

[Angie Norris]

Got into Norman a couple of hours ago...looks like tomorrow will be a decent day for a little field trip instead of sitting in the NSSL conference all day :) .
Gonig to check things out in the morning before making a final decision on a target, but the DFW area currently looks good for starters.
Good luck and safe travels to all who are chasing tomorrow!!

Angie Norris

[Shane Adams]

I agree with Kevin - this is April 6, 2001 all over again. The good thing is, this time we know we're screwed. Our plan is to get down to DFW by noon, hope the ongoing line of storms SW of there (which I expect to be the same cluster currently down by MAF) hasn't made too much progress NE, and let the line come to us. The ETA shows backed surface winds along and just west of I-35 through 21z, which may be the only hope we have of tornadoes, at least viewable ones. As I said yesterday, this ain't gonna be an easy chase, but I'm ready for the challenge.

As of this posting, the area from Stephenville to brownwood looks best, with backed surface winds to almost 90 degrees. This will no doubt change/fluctuate during the day, but if any areas like this can develop along the line, there's a good chance of at least brief tornadoes.....and with energy like what we have tomorrow, a quick tornado doesn't necessarily mean a weak one.

[Kevin Askew]

Dont forget about So. Illinois towards Bootheel of Mo. timing & some sunlight should get things hopping here very well tomorrow. I dont get off work until 10 :( but wife will be out & hopefully we can both get some action around here. It POTENTIALLY looks good for sig. Severe weather.
Kevin

[Chris Sokol]

Rather than commit to a specific area, I am going to play the area just south of the warm front/precip shield. Probably end up starting between Pauls Valley and Davis.

Going to be an "interesting" day...

Chris Sokol/KD5ILI
Mobile Weather Concepts
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

[Kevin Statler]

High risk going to be issued soon in 1630 outlook.

A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1630Z DAY1
OUTLOOK. AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN
TX...CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. REFER TO THE 1630Z DAY1 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Chris C Sanner]

All I can say is wow. March 3rd and a High Risk :shock:

[Matthew Hatton]

Gosh I wish I was there with you. Rest assured there are many on the weather forums over here watching this situation as it develops - stay safe everyone chasing today or not chasing but in the risk areas!

[mrobinson]

Tornado Warning Glasscock TX till 10am..
http://www.swiftwx.com/bulletins.aspx?bull...S54-KMAF-041516 (http://www.swiftwx.com/bulletins.aspx?bulletinid=WFUS54-KMAF-041516)
I hope someone is on it

[Kevin Statler]

Now theres a PDS Watch..

http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/WW22.20.html

[David Douglas]

Damn things are moving WAY too fast

[Amos Magliocco]

Posters,

Please provide links to text products. Also it would be nice to add some analysis with these and not simply paste large blocks of text that most will have seen anyway. Remember, anybody who knows where this site is also knows where the SPC site is.

Here's some things I've been looking at:

The latest RUC demonsrates an impressive dryline punch into central Texas between 18-22Z. This area in co-located with the intersection of
jets and the best instability and could create extremely favorable 0-
1k profiles as winds should back locally there. I would make for
south of the metroplex, maybe fifty miles south of Waxahachie. I
would stay on the interstate if possible today to give myself a
fighting chance in terms of interception speed and vectors.

Skies look to clear as the dry punch works
in; it's already visible on the channel imagery and should work
north to south. However as the midlevel winds begin to veer (good
for directinal profiles) the debris from ongoing convection will
tend to spread more to the east than north and may replace the cloud
cover you lose. Instability is a problem with this setup, but I
think it can be overcome.

You're going to need data or a nowcaster today or don't even
bother. It's a fast-moving grungy mess with LCL's so low that
clouds will scrape the ground, making visual identification of
features difficult. Be careful!! Good luck to all!!

Amos

[Dan Cook]

GOING TO BE A HIGH RISK DAY!

...AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED
AT 1630Z...


A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1630Z DAY1
OUTLOOK. AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN
TX...CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. REFER TO THE 1630Z DAY1 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE DETAILS.



http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/0403041528.acus11.html

I wonder how far this will spread.

[Tim Vasquez]

Just some gee-whiz output from the 15Z RUC. I plan to compare these panels after-the-fact to see how well the RUC did.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/mar0421.gif - 15Z RUC 06h (for 21Z)
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/mar0500.gif - 15Z RUC 09h (for 00Z)
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/mar0503.gif - 15Z RUC 12h (for 03Z)

Blue - storm relative helicity; red - convective precip; purple - surface winds

Basically at dusk the RUC has a line from TUL-FTW with isolated cells out ahead in E and SE OK. Will be interesting to see how all this pans out.

Tim

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

[David Draun]

It looks like a LEWP with some embedded supercells/circulations. It seems pretty early in the day for a PDS Tornado Watch to be issued. Who knows what could happen this afternoon when more discrete storms could develop? That squall line must be sending out a strong outflow boundary. I think where ever that boundary goes, is where the big storms will initiate.

It is starting to look like a heavy rain event here in Northern IL, SPC has removed extreme northern IL from todays convective outlook, despite the fact that the temperatures could be 60-65 here by tomorrow morning. I'm hoping for some hail/gusty winds, and some brilliant CG's.

GOOD LUCK CHASERS! :D

[Matt LaMay]

I wish I still lived in Abilene

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1144 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL 1215
PM CST...

AT 1141 AM CST...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED JUST WEST OF BUFFALO
GAP...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. PEOPLE IN EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY FROM ABILENE TO POTOSI TO LAWN
SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW!

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF TAYLOR COUNTY AND WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MERKEL.

LAT...LON 3231 9992 3216 9980 3231 9964 3247 9973

[Chris Engleman]

The sun has broken through the clouds in the D/FW area, should get some surface heating going soon.

Chris

[Karen Rhoden]

This whole thing's going gangbusters. If you live/are chasing anywhere between Norman and Denton today - be on your guard.

I think we'll be investing in a tornado shelter this year when all is said and done, living in Oklahoma.

There is a huge risk out for an area in Oklahoma between Norman and Ardmore for tornado potential. Long lived, strong tornadoes.

You can't chase any of this. It'll be moving faster that you on a highway. Choose a secure spot to watch it roll over you, if you must. Maybe on top of the correct type of overpass - with scalable concrete girders underneath.

Nervously,

Karen Rhoden
South Norman, Oklahoma

www.stormskies.com

[mrobinson]

I've just hung up with TomT and David Drummond. They are on I-20 in Eastland County Texas. They report lots of low level rotation, the clear slot has closed there and they just reported 2 funnels and now rotation on the ground. He hung up so they could get out of the way.. ITS HAULING

[Dan Cook]

Latest SRV radar from Fort Worth:

http://weather.cod.edu/nexrad/floater/FWS/...S/FWS.SRMV1.gif (http://weather.cod.edu/nexrad/floater/FWS/FWS.SRMV1.gif)

Look at the rotation! :shock:

[David Douglas]

palo pinto county.

[mrobinson]

I just spoke with TomT and David Drummond. They have ended early due to being blocked on HWY 180 near Mineral Wells TX.. Apparently there is tornado damage, and the road is closed..
David is taking images.. more info to come


UPDATE: The road was just reopened and they are heading back out

[J.B. Dixon]

What an incredible bow echo NE of Whichita Falls!! This entire thing is out of this world.....and it's still early!!

How is this thing even chasable??

[Matthew Hatton]

It's not chaseable is it? Some of those storms are moving at 75mph!! :shock:

[John Gnuechtel]

Every time I refresh my radar, the bulk of the goodies seem to have moved way more than I'm used to. Based on the bows I've seen so far, I wonder if anybody will spot a clockwise funnel today.

[Tim Vasquez]

Wichita Falls 91 mph. Fort Sill (Lawton) reported gust to 70 mph -- labelled as estimated but they will carry estimated on anemometers when it's not the sensor on the active runway. Duncan got nailed with 59 mph. This is some serious stuff.

Tim


KSPS 041924Z COR 19054G79KT 0SM +TSRA FG OVC018CB 19/17 A2952 RMK AO2
TSB10E12B24RAB24 PRESRR TS OHD MOV NE FRQ LTGICCG RVRNO $=
KFSI 041955Z COR 23034G61KT 1/4SM +TSRA BKN008CB 0VC020 16/14 A2950 RMK PRESFR
FRQ LTGICCG TS OHD-8N MOV N SLPNO WR// WND DATA ESTMD COR 2010=
KDUC 042014Z AUTO 21027G51KT 2 1/2SM +VCTSRA BKN016 OVC022 17/16 A2954 RMK AO2
LTG DSNT ALQS P0019=

[Matthew Hatton]

I notice that SPC are expecting the serious stuff to hit the OKC Metro area around 3pm - I do hope people are taking note of the skies and NWS weather warnings!! There are also some more descreet cells forming ahead of the main front now.

[David Draun]

Latest doppler base reflectivity out of San Antonio/Austin shows that the cell looks to be begining to isolate itself from the main line. Chasers might want to investigate this cell WNW of San Antonio. There is a tornado warning for the storm.


Radar URL:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p1...0/si.kewx.shtml (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kewx.shtml)

[David Draun]

to add to my last post:

The San Antonio supercell has strong rotation and is a right-mover.

[David Sallee]

Tornado Reports so far........ 14....... 4pm...


http://spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif

[mrobinson]

Tom T and David Drummond just checked in with me. They are in Northwest Parker County. They have observed a steel frame building where some of the steel beams has been ripped from the concrete. He believes this to be at least F2 damage and will report more on what he saw when he gets back. BTW they have lots of pictures and video

[Karen Rhoden]

The whole day was a grungefest - neither unexpected nor surprising.

I'd be surprised if anybody has anything near photogenic from the mess today. The only good point was that a large expanse of the Southern Plains received very beneficial rainfall - and this should ensure a pleasantly green springtime.

That, and it was fun to watch a powerful, wound-up system like this blast out to the northeast and do it's thing.

This was our second chase of the year, and not as satisfying as the first. I probably won't write this one up - and won't be writing up on today's Reports here regarding it.

__________________________________
Karen Rhoden

www.stormskies.com

..

[Larry J. Kosch]

Hello Chasers,
I'm stuck in wet, cold, chilly Nebraska while all of you storm/tornado chasers are having a ball in the great state of Texas. Here's a doppler radar of NE Texas right about the time they issued a tornado warning for Red River County, TX : http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p3...r/si.kshv.shtml (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p37cr/si.kshv.shtml)
Can't wait to see all the great shots and hear about all of the adventures you lucky stiffs had in TX!! 8)

Larry

[Matthew Hatton]

I found this event very useful. OK, not out in the field but it was handy using SWIFT and seeing how the information came in and how to relate it to all other sources of information on the net. I am no expert when it comes to meteorology so rely on data created elsewhere. I will learn however, its one steep learning curve!

[Stuart Robinson]

Some images and reports of todays event

http://www.nbc5i.com/weather/2896839/detail.html

watch out for those pop up adverts ...

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

[Matthew Hatton]

So all in all not a bad March day then. I do wonder what this means for the rest of the season (I say 'rest' as I assume it has started now). Glad to see only one injury too...

*** 1 INJ *** DAMAGE TRACK FROM SOUTH SIDE OF CITY TO I20
ON EAST SIDE. SEVERAL WEAK STRUCTURES AND VEHICLES
DAMAGED. TRACTOR TRAILERS ON INTERSTATE ROLLED INJURING
ONE.

Not heard of any others as of yet.

[Matthew Havin]

Low vis, rainfall abundant, squall line, groggy soggy mess. Boy am I glad I stayed home today!

[John Cameron]

This is one of the few events where I'm kinda glad I wasn't out in the field. We had about 3-4 counties w/ tornado warnings between 11:30a and 1:30p. The majority of warnings gave speeds of 55 miles per hour . . .yuk. We have some obvious s/l wind damage in our "cwa" with no reports of significant tornadoes. the only thing local spotters could do get behind 'em and give damage reports.

ahh . . . to be a wxcaster in Texas :?

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: MINERAL WELLS TIME OF DEPARTURE: 11 AM This is the first chase
day of the year and a difficult forecast. Carson and I will head west on I-20
toward Mineral Wells just to get out of the DFW area. This would be the middle
of my target area anyway between Wichita Falls and Brownwood. We figure to
race back to Dallas later today and will be in seach of that isolated storm
ahead of the line. Other target areas of interest are northeast Oklahoma/southeast
Kansas ahead of the surface low, but I question the instability there -and
down in the Austin-San Antonio area as the morning RUC shows a nice dry punch
there around 00z. But, I don't want to head down there with a lifting system.
PROS: Lots of upper dynamics, surface moisture, and convergence/turning along
the warm front boundary. CONS: Lots of cloud cover, convection already
firing in west Texas, a fast-lifting system, and a 500 mb jet that is forecasted to
be oriented more southwest-to-northeast. This is more unidirectional than
prior ETA runs. I don't see a big outbreak today, but there should be a few
tornadoes out there. Good luck to those of you who go out. The summary of our chase will be posted under a different header - (3/4/2000 - Chase summary for the southern plains)

[Austin Ivey]

The only cell that looked semi-discrete and chaseable to me today ocurred in Bexar county (San Antonio Texas) around 230pm I believe. I saved some nexrad images where it looked as if the storm was developing a hook. I don't know of any chasers down there but you would have to be right on top of things because it was quickly absorbed back into the larger squall line racing east. There was a tornado warning issued on this cell as well.

I had some friends chasing near Norman and all they reported was a blown over trash can and some rain. I believe things were slightly out of phase. That said there were still many svr wx reports but, it's still winter! (We had 3 inches of snow in Los Alamos today)

[David Draun]

[quote]The only cell that looked semi-discrete and chaseable to me today ocurred in Bexar county (San Antonio Texas) around 230pm I believe. I saved some nexrad images where it looked as if the storm was developing a hook.


I saw that storm at about 2:30 as you said. It did appear to be trying to organize itself, I thought it was going to be the one that could produce the big one. One that could have been warned with the NWS wording, "tornado emergency," but it reformed with the squall line. Not to say that it would be a good thing though, that is a high populated area.

[Dan Robinson]

Just a quick question for those who chased today: How was the lightning quality in terms of visibility? All in the grunge with only flashes of light visible, or any nice visible channels coming out of the clouds? I would love to chase this tomorrow in Kentucky just to see some lightning, but if it's a sheet-lightning-fest I'll sit this one out.

Also, I just talked with my parents who happen to be in San Antonio on a short vacation. Unfortunately my mom came down with the flu and stayed in the hotel room all day today, but was watching the weather situation from the hotel. She reported brief gusty winds and copious amounts of small hail. Outside the hotel window, she watched several nest-building Herrons dig in and take the pummeling, noting that the birds seemed to handle the hail just fine.

[Aaron Kennedy]

I saw several CGs....

Aaron

[Lance Maxwell]

Ya, same here, the lightning within the squall was surprisingly good. There was quite a bit of CG.

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

[Larry J. Kosch]

message deleted. Sorry MRobinson LJK.

[mrobinson]

hey guys could you please repost those under 3/5/2004 FORECAST..

Since this isnt the 4th weather system you are posting in the wrong place. I changed the topic of that thread.