3/5: FCST: Friday MI/KY/TN/OK

[nickgrillo]

Wow... ETA bringing in some decent instability into the Great Lakes on Friday (with >1000j/kg CAPE in some spots) with some pretty good 0-1km SRH for the development of tornadoes (>200m2/s2 across southern MI during the afternoon).

Discuss FRI:

[rdale]

The model consensus (as the Americans catch up to the EC ;> ) is that the system will be in the Oklahoma area on Thursday - wouldn't this need to be a S PLAINS thread for Thurs and Midwest / Great Lakes on Friday instead?

Regardless of where it's at, I see no reason to compare this to the SuperOutbreak...

- Rob

[Robert Dewey]

Im not saying we will have a Super Outbreak, since conditions cannot be identical. I was just noting that the past runs of the GFS looked very similar at 500mb in respect to trough location, depth, and wind field. The sfc forecast is somewhat similar, not as much as the 500mb level, since both featured a sfc low of ~990MB southwest of Chicago (maybe has something to do with the 500mb being similar?). That is only at one timestep, however. During the Super Outbreak, the 500mb trough was actually much stronger on April 1 into April 2, the trough was closed off and the heights were less than 540/536. By April 3 and 4, the 500mb trough weakened and opened up, and that is the timestep that looks like the current model runs - the weaker opened up wave around KS/MO. So the big difference is, the Super Outbreak system was weakening, while this one is strengthening. Another huge difference, is the fact that I am using the actual analysis from April 1-4 1974, while for our forecast, I am using un-reliable models.

I just like to bring up old events, and compare them with ones that are forecast to occur, whether they are similar or not. :D

Robert

[Dan Cook]

SPC day 3 outlook has a slight risk from Texas all the way to Illinois.

[rdale]

FYI The second topic on this forum always links to the SPC graphics so there's no need to repost in each thread... Anyways I think that might be a little rushed bringing it all the way into southern MI before daybreak Friday. Just starting to get the new stuff in now and it looks like a farther west track of the low would lead to a slowing down of the sevwx threat. At least it's something worth looking forward to!

- Rob

PS Although NWS disagrees with all of us - Detroit, Grand Rapids and Northern Indiana make no mention of thunderstorms, let alone severe, for the end of the week!

[Joel Wright]

PS Although NWS disagrees with all of us - Detroit, Grand Rapids and Northern Indiana make no mention of thunderstorms, let alone severe, for the end of the week!


They are often a little gun shy about the thunder wording early in the year.

[rdale]

I understand the value in being 'gun shy' -- but how you can look at this system and say 'no need to mention the threat of thunder' is beyond me?!? The HWO is intended to give people a heads-up on possibilities at the extended range, and GFS/ETA both giving 850 winds of 75+kts, 400ft winds of 45 kts and plenty of juice headed in I find it hard to believe there's no chance for getting storms -- let alone a threat for severe.

At least GRR & DTX are mentioning the possibility of heavy rain, but Northern Indiana says no heavy rain, no thunder, and therefore no severe (yet SPC includes them in the outlook?!?)

Anyways enough of my NWS rant ;> which can be continued in another forum, for now I'm planning on heading into IN/IL Thursday night and hanging around through Friday.

- Rob

[George Tincher]

Hmmmm, guys, just wondering if I should stock my storm shelter with water and get the portable power supply hooked up to the lights before Friday? Hehe. If the stuff comes through here overnight Thursday or Friday morning, I may need to use it. Staying above ground in these lousy hills during darkness...looking for a tornado could be very hazardous to ones health! Hehe. What appears to be the timing and location of Friday's storms, as I haven't been able to look at anything past Thursday at this point.

-George

[mrobinson]

FYI The second topic on this forum always links to the SPC graphics so there's no need to repost in each thread... Anyways I think that might be a little rushed bringing it all the way into southern MI before daybreak Friday. Just starting to get the new stuff in now and it looks like a farther west track of the low would lead to a slowing down of the sevwx threat. At least it's something worth looking forward to!

- Rob

PS Although NWS disagrees with all of us - Detroit, Grand Rapids and Northern Indiana make no mention of thunderstorms, let alone severe, for the end of the week!

reposting the full SPC is against the rules.. however discussing it and linking to portions of it are allowed. If you feel that is redundent I'd be happy to take it up with the other moderators to discuss your concerns. Please feel free to PM me or any of the other mods with them. The rules and regs are a work in progress. All imput is valued so when chase season goes into full swing all the bugs are worked out.

Melissa

:)

[rdale]

GFS would bring the squall line across MI/IN/OH before daybreak, Eta holds it off til 18Z-ish.

[George Tincher]

Thanks for the update Rob. I suppose I'll have to wait until closer in to see which solution looks more likely. The overall severity could certainly be much different if the storms move through in the pre-dawn hours compared to mid-day or near peak heating. Depending on timing and how fast the system moves, my next concern would be whether or not there would be clearing and more heating take place prior to the passage of the front. If that were to happen, there could be a second wave of storms. But again, that's much too far into the future to plan for now. But it is something to watch. I think I'll go ahead and stock my shelter now though, just to be on the safe side! :mrgreen:

-George

[George Tincher]

Ok, giving this a quick once over, it appears Friday's activity will be a big ol' squally. It looks ripe for severe but the winds seem pretty much unidirectional at all levels (at least in the Ohio Valley). I would think any tornado threat would come from embedded supercells, while the bigger threat would be from damaging winds. As far as timing, it's still a wait and see situation. But as of right now, I don't see Friday as a big tornado day...although there could be plenty of severe weather. Of course this will likely all change 10 times between now and then. LOL. I am not very comfortable at times with model data 24 hours in advance of a system, so I sure won't rely too heavily on products 72-84 hours in advance. It is however fun to look at after a long, cold, boring Winter!

-George

[Robert Dewey]

Just got done looking at the 18Z Model runs. The 18Z ETA looks very good, GFS is still faster, but is slower than the 12Z run, ever so slightly.
Current ETA would have 2 waves of severe weather. The first wave, could be a significant squall line from southwest MO into northeast IL. Tornadoes may be possible, especially if individual cells can develop ahead of the line, where SFC winds may be more south/southeasterly, and SRH will be above 250m2/s2. SFC based CAPE in Chicago, right before the squall line moves through, is in the 500-750 range, and given the last event where CAPES were even smaller than that, this system should be able to sustain severe across that region. This line pushes east, with probably the brunt of it south of lower MI. Lower MI actually stays in the upper 30's temp wise until about 12Z FRI, then a rapid warm up is in store.

Then, the other wave of severe weather comes in, primarily for areas from southern IN into lower MI...and points east into OH. ETA 18Z run is now showing temps near 70F all the way up to Saginaw, MI by 18-21Z and this is possible, as the ETA usually has a better handle on low level temps and boundaries. I think the reason for the warm-up, is that a strong dry slot moves in after the first squall line, allowing for some sunshine/sfc heating. Dewpoints also creep up into the mid to upper 50's, so the atmosphere should be rather prime for severe weather across this region. Winds fields are excellent, to say the least. Winds at 850MB are around 65KNTS, increasing to 115KNTS at 500MB, but the ETA may actually be too strong with the upper level winds (another model bias). Strong 985MB sfc low will be slamming into this airmass, with very strong convergence, so initiating convection should not be a problem. Also of note, SRH across this area, after the initial 12Z squall line, increase to >400m2/s2, so it should be interesting to watch the storms in the afternoon. I just hope that if this whole scenario pans out, that the shear wont be too strong, and prevent storms entirely.

Robert

[rdale]

"SFC based CAPE in Chicago, right before the squall line moves through, is in the 500-750 range, and given the last event where CAPES were even smaller than that, this system should be able to sustain severe across that region. "

Surface based CAPEs during yesterday's event near CHI were 1000-1500, horribly underforecast by the Eta & GFS. If they stay in the hundreds like currently noted there would be no formation of cells in advance of the squall line.

- Rob

[Dan Cook]

If case 1 pans out, I'll be on my first chase as I got a road trip planned on Fri coming home. :)

[Robert Dewey]

I see where your coming from Rob. I don't get how the ETA can have a temp of 70F, dewpoint on lets say 56F, and cold air at 500mb, yet have such little CAPE?

Actually though, I have seen severe storms occur (mainly low topped, squall lines), with CAPES less than 500j/kg. An event such as this occured in December 6 of 1998 or 1999 right here in lower MI (your in Lansing, I think it may have developed just east of you). My location had a wind gust of 82MPH, and numerous trees were down over a widespread area. The temperature during that even was 45F, and obviously when temps are that low, dewpoints don't really matter. The squall line was mainly dynamically driven, which could be the case FRI for the Chicago area...

Robert

[rdale]

My GEMPAK hiccupped today (actually one of my daughters reset it) so I don't have all the 18Z stuff in yet ;> Anyways I know storms can form a squall line in that environment, but you were talking about supercells forming ahead of the line and that's very difficult to do in a low-CAPE environment.

Also anything elevated would not be a tornado risk.

- Rob

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, I seen that after I posted that you were talking about thesupercells/tornado threat, sorry... :D

Your run GEMPAK at your house also? I have several shell scripts to receive data from FTP - how do you get your data?

Robert

[rdale]

FTP to NCEP for model / satellite, HTTP to NCEP for NIDS, HTTP to universities for surface / profilers / upperair / watches / warnings / etc. More info on my homepage.

- Rob

[nickgrillo]

This system looks pretty dang good :) I'm definitley taking a day off on Friday for this one :)

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, I just checked the 500mb RUC analysis, and it actually looks like the storm is on track. I am getting anxious for the 00Z data to come in, which the ETA should probably be in within 2 hours from now, GFS about 3 hours. Nick...Did you read the AFD from GRR for this afternoon? "...SW MI GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME
INSTABILITY ONCE THE WAA PCPN LIFTS OUT...THEN SVR WX WILL BECOME A
CONCERN. ALL OF THE CLASSIC SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO EXIST FOR
A DECENT OUTBREAK OF SVR WX CLOSE BY... BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
KEY...". That sums it up pretty well. My AIM username is TornadoChaser200 if anyone wants to chat.

Robert

[rdale]

Running some 18Z Friday Eta soundings through NSharp and all I can say is -- if this was April I might be evacuating friends and neighbors ;> Not enough juice through the column to kick off supercells, but one heck of a squall line is a nice bet as things stand...

[Robert Dewey]

Checked the latest 00Z data, and I think the ETA has actually slowed some, as has the GFS, just a bit. ETA is a bit more unstable than the 18Z ETA, but nothing spectacular. Would really like to see CAPE above 1500 for supercells, and at this point it is impossible to say whether this will happen. ETA still has temps >65F for most areas in the warm sector, and dewpoints approaching 60F (up a few degrees from the 18Z run). Storm system deepens to 982MB by 0Z SAT. Right now, I have to agree with Rob, that it looks like a massive squall line or derecho situation. Wind profiles show extreme speed shear, with an 89KNT jet maximum above OH/IN/MI 18Z FRI! This is probably why the 0-3km helicity is running around 300-350m2/s2, since directional shear will not be too strong. IF instability looks a bit better than the current ETA suggests, a couple of supercells may be possible, especially right ahead of the line of main convection, where SFC winds may still be more southerly. Behind the system, late FRI/FRI night, it looks like the system will transition into a wind machine for lower MI, with ETA suggesting 10m winds sustained at 30-40knts, and some mixing of 50KNT winds possible (gusts to 55MPH).

P.S. 10 more model runs until the event (4 model runs per day), can they hold??

Robert

[rdale]

With the 12Z Eta in, nothing terribly different compared to 00Z - timing just about the same, SLP a few mb higher, wind speeds slightly lower -- but all-in-all nothing that's going to stop me from preparing for an overnighter Thursday into the day Friday around northern IN / southern MI...

[Amos Magliocco]

With the 12Z Eta in, nothing terribly different compared to 00Z - timing just about the same, SLP a few mb higher, wind speeds slightly lower -- but all-in-all nothing that's going to stop me from preparing for an overnighter Thursday into the day Friday around northern IN / southern MI...

How is the visibility and road network up there?

Amos

[rdale]

Vis is fine in N Indiana, hit-n-miss in southern MI. Roads are fine in both locations. I usually shoot down I-69, if I have a target out west or south I'll either cross the Toll Road or continue on I-69 -- if I'm meandering I usually take US20 across.

- Rob

[Tim Stoecklein]

Hmmm, chaser convergence in Michigan??? I'm in. They have given a good description of the downstate roads and such. If you get too far west, it can get a little tougher with trees and such. Of course when you come from Kansas, as I do, any trees are more than you are used to.

Anyway, let us know who is going to be out and about. I've already hit my 40 hour mark for the week since we've got intramural basketball playoffs going, so I'm not planning on coming to the office on Friday. I'm planning on heading down that way.

Tim

[Robert Dewey]

I have to agree with Nick and Rob...MI does have some good areas as far as visibility and road networks. Extreme Northern Oakland County and Macomb county (north of Romeo) are good areas, as well as south of Detroit.

I am having trouble viewing the 12Z data in full, as the only site with graphics is NCEP. The other sites such as RAP/UCAR and COD didn't produce any 12Z data...

From what I see on NCEP is like Rob said, conditions are pretty much the same, SFC low is a bit weaker, but I think 850mb Temps are slightly higher. As far as SFC temps etc., I have no graphics to go by.


Robert

[Robert Dewey]

Ok, the latest 18Z data is in for the ETA and GFS, and it is looking good. The 18Z GFS has slowed somewhat, leading to more confidence in the ETA solution. Still thinking that two waves of severe weather will occur. Late tomorrow night will feature a squall line from about KIND southwestward...with little or no severe weather further north.

By FRI afternoon, the 18Z ETA remains with its 65-70F SFC T and upper 50's to near 60F Td. Big difference in instability this go around...With the 18Z ETA showing SFC based CAPEs of 1000j/kg widespread across southwest lower MI and extreme northern IN, with max CAPEs of 1500j/kg near Grand Rapids MI. LI index also goes down to -4. I believe the reason for the increase in instability is the fact that 500mb trough is more rounded and there is better CAA, so temps are around 3C lower than the 12Z run. Speed shear is excellent...60KNTS at 850mb, 80-90KNTS 700mb, and 115KNTS at 500mb. Looking at helicity fields, 0-3km helicity is strongest right along the cold front with values of 300-400m2/s2. If SFC winds can back to the south or southeast a bit more, then helicity may be even stronger. So, if instability does get that high in the afternoon, then I believe a derecho or significant squall line is likely from about KIND northward to Central lower MI, with the potential for isolated supercells. If instability remains weak however, then I would still expect a decent dynamically driven squall line, but supercells will probably not occur.

Robert

[Brandon Redmond]

Hey, i'm from Eastern Indiana near Muncie, brand new to the board. I agree rdewey that it does look like the main threat will be in the form of a squall line. I think some elevated convection may develop during the day on Thursday and a storm or two may become strong if it can become surface based, but generally, the main severe weather event should be Thursday Evening, Night and into Friday.

[Ben Pinette]

Supercells or not, I'm in. Time to elleviate some SDS :)

As has been stated here already, those chasing SE MI, stay away from Wayne County and southern Oakland and Macomb counties. Very populated and road networks are not an option unless you like stop lights every 1/4 mile. Anywhere else you should be in good shape for viewing. Monroe, Lenawee, Hillsdale, and Branch County (IN,OH border counties) are your best for flat open terrain. Not like the plains, but the best you'll get around here.

I-69, US-127, US-12, M-50, M-52, US-23, I-94, I-96 will take you absolutely anywhere you need to go.

[Robert Dewey]

Still looks like the event is on tap for Friday. Have done some research on past severe weather events here in MI, and the last strong tornado to tear through was an F4 in Bloomfield Hills on March 20 1976, so March severe weather outbreaks can and do occur here in MI/IN/OH. Check out http://www.spc.noaa.gov/staff/hart/outbreaks/, they have 00Z and 12Z analysis and 3 hourly SFC analysis for every significant tornado event since 1970 (including the March 20 1976 event). I was actually quite surprised when I reviewed some of these events, as I thought system strength would have been stronger (March 20 1976, April 3 1974). The system slated for Friday is actually a bit stronger than April 3rd and March 20th events, but directional shear is not as good. The exact amount of directional shear will hinge on the shape of the sfc and upper level lows (wind direction usually follows the heights/isobars), which at this point is still anyones best guess, and has been changing from run to run.

Robert

[Ben Pinette]

Rob and Robert, thanks for the updates and keep them coming. I won't have time to look at anything now until at least 18Z today, if not 00Z Friday.

[Robert Dewey]

Just got done checking all the latest data from the 06Z models. Not much has changed as far as the event is concerned. I ran some forecast soundings through BUFKIT, and things are really looking good for severe weather. ETA 06Z run indicates the best timeframe will be between 18Z-21Z FRI. Bufkit momentum transfers are showing that 60KNT wind gusts wills will be able to mix down in the afternoon, and that isn't even in the convection. I do believe this is overdone, and that non-convective wind gusts to 50KNTS will be possible (~60MPH).
One big concern for tomorrow is instability. Regardless of instability, a squall line will likely develop, with damaging winds the obvious threat. However, bufkit indicates 0-3km helicity is over 350m2/s2 between 18-21Z, with extreme speeed shear between the SFC and 700MB. The problem is, we must have a CAPE of at least 1150J/KG to get any supercells to sustain themselves. The morning forecast discussion from DTX explains this situation well. Its hard to say at this point, but if sun does break through (ETA strongly suggests it does), than temps will near 70F, and with dewpoints in the mid 50's, will help to bring more instability. The biggest factor in determining the instability though, is the 500mb cold core. If the 500mb temps are a degree or two lower, than instability will be higher...ETA has been indicating a bit colder at 500mb for the past few runs, which is why it is showing more instability.

If for some reason we do end up with less instability, below 750J/KG...Then I would expect mainly a low topped and narrow squall line, possibly thunderless...With a pretty good threat of damaging winds.

Robert

[rdale]

I don't see any reason this wouldn't be a low-topped event regardless of supercells / squall line... Also with the Eta allowing for afternoon sun - PWAT's also drop down to 3/4" or less during the day which isn't good for standalone long-lived storms.

[Robert Dewey]

Rob, I just meant low topped as in lower tops than if instability was higher. I am talking about a line of damaging winds, with showers (perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder), that do not peak above 10K or 15K feet.

When I was talking about higher instability, I was generally meaning supercells with heights of 25K feet, which is still generally low-topped. Sorry about the confusion


Robert

[Caleb Lawrence]

I'm definitely looking forward to tomorrow. I had a dream there was a tornado south of me lastnight.

Ah, pre-season hopes...

[rdale]

IWX is going dry for northern Indiana / southern MI during Friday -- that's a gutsy call! I can understand why the Eta (even 18Z) suppresses all convection in the day but would be hard pressed to go with a no-storm forecast. I've not changed my forecast at all from the earlier posts...

- Rob

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, IWX dropped the mention of thunderstorms in the zone forecast for Friday afternoon, now they only mention light rain showers! DTX issued a special weather statement mentioning severe and the possibility of an isolated tornado. I just hope that mid level temps cool enough, and that there is enough convergence along the front to initiate thunderstorms. If storms do occur, they will likely be severe given winds aloft. I also noticed helicity is a bit higher with the 12Z run of the ETA, but only by around 50m2/s2, but this means nothing if there is no instability.

Robert

[Dan Robinson]

Further south into KY and TN may be favorable if the area gets any clearing during the day on Friday. Even without insolation, the higher surface temps should help get us at least some decent lightning - which is good enough for me at this point. I'm planning on heading southwest into central Kentucky tomorrow morning.

[Tim Stoecklein]

Well, what do you think fellow Michiganians? Are we still going to have a shot tomorrow or is it just going to be a significant soaking which may lead me to have to kayak to town?

I think we're going to have the moisture in place, but is the instability going to be there?

[rdale]

Actually I don't think the moisture will be in place tomorrow... The drying forecast to move in also caps things off. There won't be a lot of forcing with the unidirectional winds. But then again that didn't hurt things in TX where CAPEs were low and winds were strong. But I don't see how we could get a soaking tomorrow...

[Tim Stoecklein]

Well, that's what I get for not checking before I posted here huh? Just more snow I guess :cry:

[Robert Dewey]

Could be a decent soaking tonight in southern lower MI, but not tomorrow, unless your speaking for northern lower. Dewpoints currently in the upper 50's from Indianapolis south, with a few 60F reports in southern IL. Based on analysis and RUC forecasts, I believe dewpoints will likely reach the mid 50's tomorrow. If we do manage to scour out some of the clouds tomorrow afternoon, then temps should warm to 65-70F. I have two concerns for tomorrow...

1) Mid level warming - The layer between 700mb and 500mb really needs to lose about 2C, which may happen since there is a large dewpoint depression in that region, making it easier for temps to fall. If temps do not cool, then instability will remain weak.

2) Convergence along the front - Convergence along the front doesnt look so good (wind convergence/moisture convergence), making it hard to initiate thunderstorms. If we have better instability than the weak 500J/KG the ETA is showing, then I believe the actual cold front may be able to initiate convection. I do not have access to frontogenesis fields, but I am assuming that since there is a decent thermal gradient, frontogenesis should be decent.

Will have to see what the 00Z and 06Z ETA show...


Robert

[Blake W. Naftel]

Just now jumping into this forum/topic ... my brief take on the situation...

Was not extremely positive about Friday (today) as per the 00Z Thursday ETA; but with the current RUC and ETA data deepening the low; and keeping it farther W than originally anticipated.. backing E/SE surface winds across L. MI through pre-midday Friday.. coupled ample sheer at 850/700/500 points to a 50/50 shot at low topped SUPs; maybe an isolated tornado or two. Not too thrilled with forecasted Td's/moisture availability. CAPE is nearly non existent (small area of 500 J/Kg); but this may be being underforecasted by the RUC (the model Im glancing at attm). Td's reach the low-mid 50s across IN/OH/MI border by 12Z... mid 50 Tds by 15Z. Of course; flow becomes fairly unidirectional after 15Z... alas the window for rotating storms/pre frontal passage is slim, yet there.

Another other thoughts/analysis?

..Blake..

[rdale]

SPC has removed the slight risk completely from all of the area for today - which makes no sense to me. I'm still not gung-ho about this afternoon, but clearly not to the point of saying 0% chance of severe! IWX is still saying we won't get anything but a few light rainshowers in SW Mich this afternoon as well.

The interesting thing to note is that the low pressure system is 1) notably stronger and 2) farther west than the models' forecasts. The models also are not picking up on the warm / moist air, with temps near 60 and dew points well into the 50's just now edging into SW Mich. According to the computer, we'll see highs in the lower 60's and dew points in the 40's today - and odds of all that moist air retreating south and the mid-upper 60's not moving any closer are not good ;>

The low is centered in northeast Iowa, with an end to our area of rain crossing a Chicago to Indy line, and some clearing over the western half of Illinois. The sooner we get rid of this rain and pop out some sunshine the better.

After all that -- I'm still not terribly excited about today's threat but still expect to be out and about a good part of the early afternoon...

- Rob

[Tim Stoecklein]

Rob I had began to lose hope, but the sun is starting to try and peek through the clouds finally here in Big Rapids. There is 20 degree difference between GR and here. I agree with you, bring on the sun. I'll take anything we can get today.

Tim

[rdale]

I can't see dew points in the 40's being conducive to convection!

[Tim Stoecklein]

Yeah, I just got off the DuPage site....

Looks like a windy day and that's about it. You think if it had arrived a little later, like after lunch, we would have had a better shot?

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, I am losing hope fast for today. Looks like the mid level warming will completely cut off instability. Everything else is in place, mid 50's SFC dewpoints, mild temps, and extreme shear, just need colder upper air temps. I just looked at WI, and they had a severe thunderstorm warning for 3 counties around 5am. Also just checked the Wolcott profiler from IN, shows 85KNTS within the first 2K-3K feet!


Robert

[rdale]

I don't think it's necessarily a cold front moving through Indiana / SW Mich but simply mixing out all the dry air aloft when the sun pokes through at the surface (shouldn't have read the IWX discussion before drawing my maps ;> ) The cold front is back in central IL yet with the actual cold surge from Madison to SE Iowa.

I don't think we're too warm aloft (-15*C at 500, 3*C at 700) but too dry. However Chicago radar is giving me hope...

[Robert Dewey]

As you said Rob, I can already see the dry air mixing in...Looking at the latest 15Z Metar...dewpoints in extreme southwest lower MI have dropped, with a reading of 49F near South Bend. At this point, I would be happy with any kind of convection.

Robert

[rdale]

The cold front is moving through central Illinois at this hour, so time remains for development yet this afternoon (and an area of showers is now moving out ahead of the front over southern Lake Michigan) but it's possible that we just see sunshine the rest of the day with a few clouds here and there.

Regardless of our thunderstorm chances - it's going to be very windy with gusts > 30 mph throughout the afternoon and evening. Any shower and storm action would be well out of the area by sunset, and then the winds will gradually subside overnight with some flurries!

-rd

[Ben Pinette]

Starting to see some sun in ARB at this time, but I honestly don't see anything more than a non-convective wind storm for today. I'll be planning on a full day of work :(

[Jon Miller]

11 am(16 Z) est- west central Ohio

Skys are partly cloudy to clearing - winds from s.w @ 20-30 mph w/ gust to 40 mph
Temp-67 deg
dew pt - 54 deg

I don't think anything is going to happen here. We had a lot of rain yesterday and the front is progged to go thru in early afternoon. Not enough time for convective heating & instability to happen before temps drop. Besides gas prices jumped up again yesterday ($1.79) so will stay home and not waste gas.

[Robert Dewey]

Very wind here as of 11:30am, just had a gust to 50mph measured on my weather station. Current T/Td is 69F/55F. Not looking for any significant severe storms, but the tallest showers or isolated thunderstorms may be able to pull winds of 60-80mph down to the sfc. This is stated in the DTX hazardous wx outlook as well. Most of extreme southern lower MI is now covered by a high wind warning as well...


Robert

[rdale]

But we need some sort of instability to get convection - and the LI -1 readings in the area according to SPC's page are now moving out, and with it any hopes of thunderstorms today... And now we're clouding up with dew point of 51 and temp 63 (just 65/60 30 minutes ago!)

- Rob

[Dan Cook]

windy here. Sustained of 35-45 with gusts to 55.

[Larry J. Kosch]

message deleted. Thanks MRobinson. :( LJK.

[Robert Dewey]

Well today was a bust...But I still liked it because of the warm temps and strong southerly winds. Still have another 5 months of prime severe weather season for the Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley region (late March through early August).


Robert

[nickgrillo]

Can you believe this one?

I am currently writing this in a library in central Kentucky :?

Damn - I thought I would at least get something, but everything turned to crap.

Pudacuh Radar showed some thunderstorms moving toward me quickly and intensfying, but I dought I will see anything severe.

Wind gusts have been pushing 40+ mph - but I drove into the "slight risk" area for nothing - 5 hours away. :x

This is the last time I chase this early in the season. :x

Hoping for just some lightning.

[Ben Pinette]

Nick,

Driving all that way just to bust certainly is no fun. But, at least you got out and tried to make something of it!

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

[Caleb Lawrence]

Nothing here either. The warm winds was a nice change, and the wind was fun. Recorded gust of 54mph so far.

[nickgrillo]

Nick,

Driving all that way just to bust certainly is no fun. But, at least you got out and tried to make something of it!

Well, right after I wrote this a few thunderstorms passed over me -- one produced a 65 mph wind gust which I just reported via online to the NWS.

It was nice to get that far south anyway.

[Chris C Sanner]

Storms passed through here (Southern OK) and I got some lightning out of them:

http://www.maddenmania.net/images/chase/03...30504/mar5.html (http://www.maddenmania.net/images/chase/030504/mar5.html)