Big Blue Sky Bust Days

[Grant Gutierrez]

Are there any days that anyone can remember where models were looking really good for a chase day and NOTHING ended up happening? Be it too strong of a cap or anything? Myself and a friend are doing a research project for a class and we need a day where nothing really happened, despite the fact that conditions were looking very favorable. Any input or suggestion is appreciated.

[Dean Baron]

just a couple days ago in MN, July 16th, 2008. There is probably a better example out there somewhere but this one is the freshest in my mind...

[Darrin Rasberry]

If you are not specifically assigned to blue-sky busts, then you will open yourself up to wider gaps between the expected and the actual. For instance, while not necessarily a blue-sky bust, there's this High Risk day (http://www.nwas.org/ej/pdf/2007-EJ3.pdf) on June 5, 1999 that's documented quite well in the linked paper I read a few weeks back. Speaking of June 5th, one chaser labeled this year's version the "bust of the century" - recall that even though most of the HIGH was for 60/hatch winds, there was also a 30/hatch for tornadoes later in that day, over an area that was completely killed by blowoff IIRC.

July 31, 2002 and April 11, 2005 are high risk days (with high tornado expectation) with no tornado reports at all if Wikipedia is to be trusted.

[Shane Adams]

May 2, 1999. That was supposed to be May 3. But it was worth the wait.

[Jeff Bartlett]

I have at least a couple of blue-skies every season, but some of them seem to sting a little more than others.

One in particular that I have a hard time forgetting is June 7, 2007. At least for those of us on the Plains. I suppose someone in Wisconsin would disagree, but in Oklahoma, the day was primed for some juicy weather goodness. The only problem was the CAP. The dryline couldn't get the job done despite its best efforts. Of course, if you like turkey towers, then you were in weather-Nirvana. I hovered around the dryline for several hours waiting for any cell to break through, but it was not to be on that day. I took this picture later that night as the cold front finally moved through the area. This photo is titled "Chasers Nightmare". I was basically at the triple point looking due south along the dryline with the cold front just passing over my head. Those are not clouds that you see on the left.
http://i246.photobucket.com/albums/gg112/ElJeffe76/Random%20Weather/June720074.jpg

That is the boundary between the warm moist air and the much drier air moving over my location (moisture illuminated by the city lights of Stillwater). It was quite awesome and depressing at the same time to see the air mass that we had to work with that day get shoved off with only a small roll cloud (located just behind me in the photo) and no precip to show for it. Sorry about the blurry star-trails, but I let the shutter go a little long and the cold front was a little windy.

No matter how good you are at chasing or forecasting or how much experience you have, everyone busts every now and then. You have to roll the dice, especially when the conditions look good close to home. To me, nothing is more depressing than staying home and assuming the CAP will hold, only to check a radar later in the day and seeing a storm in NW Oklahoma going postal. Even worse is checking the Reports thread that night or the next day and seeing some pics from one of the Mike's (Umscheid, Hollingshead, Scantlin, Peregrine, Gribble, etc.) showing one of the most beautiful multi-tiered, sheared, monster updraft bases in recorded history with bolts shooting out and arching across the sky after the sun has set and the horizon is a palette of color.....makes me want to vomit. But, in the end, these are the things that keep this profession/hobby interesting and will keep me going out as often as I can and will continue to allow me to bust horribly every now and then.

[Bob Schafer]

July 19, 2006. I wasn't chasing, but I still have to laugh at the parameters that yielded essentially nothing in Iowa.

[Tony Perkins]

July 19, 2006. I wasn't chasing, but I still have to laugh at the parameters that yielded essentially nothing in Iowa.

I remember this day quite well. Eventually there was a warning or two after dark across the MN border, but it was a tough bust. This was the first experience for me where I later became to equate July + Iowa = Bust.

[Josh Richardson]

Bob and Tony pretty much already said what I was going to say, every year in July we have at least 1 pretty big blue sky bust up here. Its funny this thread was started because I just started a thread about this same thing over at different site, in that thread I was stating we had yet to have our "big" blue sky bust in IA this year. Shouldn't be long before it happens.

[Brett Roberts]

April 24, 2008, along the OK-KS border. It never looked like initiation was a guarantee by any stretch, but the models trended better and better into the early and mid afternoon, and the parameters would have supported a very nice event if anything had fired.

[cdcollura]

Good day...

http://www.sky-chaser.com/image/mwcl2005/m6bust3.jpg

Above: May 21, 2005 - near Wahoo, NE.

Here is our group of chasers as well as others including Tony Laubach, Eric Nguyen, and Scott Currens waiting and waiting for storms to fire in an extremely unstable airmass. Well, once again, the setup went to waste as a warm layer of air at 10,000 feet "capped" the atmosphere preventing initiation. Here the chasers are fearing another imminent "bust".

Nothing happened. There was also a moderate risk with 15% hatched tornado probability as well. But that means nothing if the LFC is out of reach ;-(

[Darrin Rasberry]

I remember this day quite well. Eventually there was a warning or two after dark across the MN border, but it was a tough bust. This was the first experience for me where I later became to equate July + Iowa = Bust.

Also:

High Risk + Iowa = Bust

or even better:

{Iowa severe setups} - {two horrendous days} = {rain}

[Chris Hayes]

When it comes to statistics of blue skies busts, I did VERY good this year. Out of 11-13 chase days, I only had one true bust day. I forget what day it was. Pretty sure it was in late may. There was a tornado watch issued for SE KS. A single storm formed but wansnt worth going after and we just watched it from like 20 miles away as it began to die off. There was a storm but I still consider it a blue sky bust day because it was so pathetic. lol. Every other chase day we at least saw some half way decent storms, if not tornados to boot.

[Darrin Rasberry]

July 19, 2006. I wasn't chasing, but I still have to laugh at the parameters that yielded essentially nothing in Iowa.

... that being said, the parameters looks like a "Bay of Pigs" scenario - if something should happen, then it's the end of the world, but it's likely not much will. Are lower CAP "tongues" surrounded by a diamond-hard CINH on all ends that reliable? Seems to be maybe a misread at KDMX or something that caused that tongue, everywhere else is huge, if it's a boundary I've never seen one oriented like that unless it's a warm front which won't tend to "initiate on the good side" unless it has other things to interact with.

[MatthewCarman]

Also:

High Risk + Iowa = Bust

or even better:

{Iowa severe setups} - {two horrendous days} = {rain}

May 22 of 2004 was a high risk for Iowa and we saw 36 tornadoes across central Iowa = our biggest outbreak ever. The day before had tornadoes aswell including the tornado that wiped out most of Bradgate IA.

[Jim Tang]

May 12, 1995, the day of the I-70 supercell, was a High Risk day. The cap never broke aside from that one supercell that went ballistic.

July 31, 2002 started off with a High risk and busted due to capping problems.

July 19, 2006 was a pretty epic cap bust with insane parameters, as was June 6, 2007.

May 11, 2005 was nearly a cap bust along the dryline if it weren't for supercells that fired after dark and produced the tornadoes near Ulysses, KS.

June 2, 2005 was a cap bust along the dryline.

May 11, 2004 busted in KS. I remember TWC calling that one to be a significant event several days out.

Not 100% sure of the date but I recall someone saying that parameters in KS on May 17, 2004 being pretty impressive, but the cap held.

[Shane Adams]

March 8, 1999 is another one I remember. We were set for an outbreak but it didn't happen. If memory serves, I think the triple point got "squashed" by a surging CF that overtook a slow-moving WF. We did manage a 10-minute shear funnel that day though.

[Bob Schafer]

Ya know, Darrin, if you'd like to see more data from that date, you can look it up here:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/u-make.html

I also have a few other graphics saved, inc. obs. Let me know if you'd like to see what else I have.

Bob

... that being said, the parameters looks like a "Bay of Pigs" scenario - if something should happen, then it's the end of the world, but it's likely not much will. Are lower CAP "tongues" surrounded by a diamond-hard CINH on all ends that reliable? Seems to be maybe a misread at KDMX or something that caused that tongue, everywhere else is huge, if it's a boundary I've never seen one oriented like that unless it's a warm front which won't tend to "initiate on the good side" unless it has other things to interact with.

[Darrin Rasberry]

May 22 of 2004 was a high risk for Iowa and we saw 36 tornadoes across central Iowa = our biggest outbreak ever. The day before had tornadoes aswell including the tornado that wiped out most of Bradgate IA.

I thought May 22 04 was mdt for Iowa and high in Nebraska? That was Hallam IIRC but I haven't seen the graphic from that day to be honest

Also, I think the Boy Scout tragedy happened on HIGH this year. But I think two more (June 5 in particular) turned out pretty shabby

[Darrin Rasberry]

Ya know, Darrin, if you'd like to see more data from that date, you can look it up here:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/u-make.html

I also have a few other graphics saved, inc. obs. Let me know if you'd like to see what else I have.

Bob

Aw thanks Bob, now I'm not going to emerge from my room for a month :D neat site!