10/21/2008 FCST: CO, KS, OK

[Verne Carlson]

NAM showing the best 500mb winds off to the west a bit but still a nice ribbon of 1200 J/kg2 ML Cape at 0z tomorrow ahead of a cold front diving into the plains. e CO/w KS border looks like the best shot at some hail and lightning in the afternoon and evening. I need to head out to Russell to winterize the house so I might chase out tomorrow afternoon, stay in Russell Tuesday night and then drive back weds day.

[Steve Miller TX]

I'd like the dynamics to come in abit sooner behind the departing impulse in the morning...mainly for my neck of the woods around Amarillo.

What is doing to be interesting to watch is the ongoing band of moderate to heavy precip from NM into the TX PH as I write. If the models are correct and it lasts into the morning hours, then it would reinforce the cool sector of the warm front and impede it's northward progress through the day and keep it a bit more defined at the surface. With some subsidence behind the departing morning impulse, that might be enough to bump up the surface pressures a tad to further hinder its northward movement as well. Subsidence might help with getting the clouds out of here too.

I'm tied up with business until late morning, but I will have all my gear with me and hit the road if things look good then.

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Definitely not the best looking day by any means, but there should atleast be some sunlight reaching the ground unlike the last setup. 50 degree dew points cover the Panhandles currently, but I dont think they well be going much higher than that. The 4km WRF shows a couple cells rolling down off the Black Mesa out of NM in the late evening tomorrow after the morning showers clear the area around noon. There just might be enough there to sqeeze out a decent storm or 2 tomorrow before 10pm. If they dont fire before dark, the late arriving upper level energy looks to atleast kick a few storms off.

It never takes much to get me to chase in October. It is a long 4 months of winter until March. Things in KS may have a better shot tomorrow, but I am going to do my best not to go north of OK/KS border, if I can help it.