What will it do in 2009?

[Randall Cooper]

With all this severe weather going on in December, I have just one question... What do you think will happen in 2009? Will it be another record breaking year with tornadoes, or will it be a disappointment? I'm interested to hear what you all think.

[Jason Boggs]

With no scientific background from my angle, all of what I say here is just my opinion, and my opinion only.

I think we will have to wait until winter gets going before we will know for sure. I know around here (Amarillo), when we have wet, snowy winters, the spring seems quite a bit more active than usual. Now, will we have a spring in the TX panhandle like 07? Maybe and maybe not. Last season around the TX panhandle, it was a pretty boring season, but of course the winter was a joke. We got 3 or 4 inches of snowfall all year, if that. All the action was up in KS.

I truly believe the winter this year around Amarillo will be fairly wet and snowy. Therefore, I'd imagine it will be fairly active leading up and into spring. Again, take this theory with a grain of salt, but I really believe the winter conditions can give hints to what the spring will be like.

[Shane Adams]

With all this severe weather going on in December, I have just one question... What do you think will happen in 2009? Will it be another record breaking year with tornadoes, or will it be a disappointment? I'm interested to hear what you all think.


Ask me again in July :D

[Kenny Drake]

I will risk it all and take Shane's comment to the next level and will get back to you in June, 2009. I may bite the bullet for it though.

[Rob Wadsworth]

I tend to accept the concept of the 7 year tornado cycle. It's not always accurate, but if one looks at the records and statistics over the last sixty-five years of tornado peak occurrences - the numbers are almost consistently rise and fall within that time span. This year is the year before the peak, so the coming year may be even more intense - if there is any truth/validity to this 'circadian rhythm' of tornadic occurrences.

But your question is ambiguous; what are you asking? Even wide speculation and the best computer forecast on the long-term have been wrong before. Computer forecasting is relatively new when one considers that modern meteorology is also a child of the past century. Really, the last sixty years is the point where forecasting has become relatively accurate. Just after the 1900's began, people didn't even talk about tornadoes - even though they were happening then as they are now. They spoke about it in low, quiet tones in much the same way that someone would if they were discussing pornography or scandalous behavior. And that was true at that time; the mere mention or thought of a tornado was too horrible to even consider just a mere eighty years ago.

As for what happens in 2009; who can say? I think if we see a large outbreak that begins in February - as it did this year - then I think that it may be safe to venture the thought that it will be another record-breaking year. One thing about computer models and forecasting; they are getting better at it every year as satellite, computers, and data collection get better and better.

I have not believed that global warning is the cause of these larger, more powerful outbreaks. I still reserve the right to believe that concept is somehow contrived and politically motivated. But after seeing a recent video of the rapidly-shrinking polar ice caps; one can only conclude that there is an undeniable element responsible for a rise on average ocean temperatures - but I refuse to accept the proposed reason/cause for it. There are many elements that can contribute to this happening, much larger than man has been able to affect. Hurricane's are a means for the atmosphere to equalize the extremes in temperatures between the equator and the polar regions - so it has been said. Since there have been more extreme hurricanes - and more of them on average over the last ten years - one would like to say that global warming is a fact. I would dispute the cause - not the evidence. For all we really know at this time, it can also be exacerbated by an abundance of solar light, heat, and radiation. So little is known about the effects of these factors, that kind of data has only been documented over the last forty years or so. Maybe the Earth's core is heating up as a response for large-scale solar ejecta/radiation trapped by our magnetic field.
Or maybe Bigfoot is real (lol!)...

Bottom line: Get a good viddy/still cam and get ready to film it!

[Shane Adams]

Do we really know that 2008 has been a record year for tornadoes?

I know it's been a record year for tornado reports.

[Jim Saueressig]

Has anyone ever figured tornadoes into the solar cycle? We are just leaving the solar minimum and it supposedly runs an 11 year cycle.

[Andrew Ryan]

Has anyone ever figured tornadoes into the solar cycle? We are just leaving the solar minimum and it supposedly runs an 11 year cycle.

I think that would fall under the same lines as global warming.

Solar radiation effects weather mainly on a synoptic scale level and not on a mesoscale level. Since tornadoes are influenced primarily on conditions on a mesoscale level, so it's hard to correlate something like an increase or decrease in solar radiation with tornadoes.

I don't know if that makes any sense or is it correct. It's just my opinion.

[MatthewCarman]

A friend of mine saw a tornado in July that is not in the reports for that day. I figure they never reported it. I saw the pictures so I know she was not lying. I wonder how many tornadoes a year do not get reported? I think it is safe to say with the many tornado reports for this year this is a record breaking year or in the top 5. That could be due to more tornadoes being reported then previous years and more storm chasers.

[Jim Leonard]

We can all speculate on what kind of storm season next year will bring. One thing is to watch where the long wave trough sets up during the early spring time frame. If this trough tends to set up out in the western states there will be a lot of severe storm days, if it is in the eastern states there will be no severe days out in the plains. One thing you don't want to see is a late season cold period in the eastern U.S.

[John Wetter]

What do you think will happen in 2009?

It'll snow...

Then it'll sleet...

Then it'll snow more...

Then it'll get warm...

Then it'll tornado...

Then it'll rain...

Then it'll get cold...

Then it'll snow...

One of those circular things in life.

[Jason Foster]

We can all speculate on what kind of storm season next year will bring. One thing is to watch where the long wave trough sets up during the early spring time frame. If this trough tends to set up out in the western states there will be a lot of severe storm days, if it is in the eastern states there will be no severe days out in the plains. One thing you don't want to see is a late season cold period in the eastern U.S.

Jim...I'm surprised you didn't comment on the tropical season outlook. I know that is my other focus for 2009.

I haven't started playing with my spreadsheets and charts yet. SPC has been doing some great stuff too on the chart and data sets along the lines that I use to play with. I do by into the cycle....but I don't see it as a stand 7 year cycle. I think of it more as a 6 and 10 year. It's kinda complicated...mostly because I haven't gone back far enough to add my theory to the data set.

I do believe in a balance of statistics. If there has been a dominate season for a few years, we'll see a break. If the northern areas of the plains were more active during one season, that it may shift further south...or maybe even way north. If the early part of the season is active, perhaps in the upcoming years the end of the season or year will be active. There are so many variables that it can get real complicated to predict some of the cycles, if they even exist.

On other mention, is about the Global Warming factor. I do believe in it to a degree. My point is that I don't the GW is the butterfly....I think GW affects will be not as extreme as predicted. Certainly GW won't have a huge affect on tornado stats for many more years to come....on the same front, I believe that for hurricanes.

All-in-all....I'm betting for a lack luster year.....because the gas is likely to be cheaper....it'll just be our luck that we won't need to drive much...because it'll be slow.

[Jim Leonard]

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2008/dec2008/dec2008.pdf
Hey Jason, CS early outlook is out. It is much as I expected, there should be no EL-Nino coming up next summer plus we are in the middle of an active cycle that began in 1995. Now, if we can get a year like 2004 where the severe season and the hurricane season were crazy we will be in business.

[Brian Emfinger]

Last year we had tornadoes on January 6 across 5 states (including the EF3 in Wisconsin) and February 5 and others... I am starting to think that with the significant early season advances of cold air out of Canada (that have and/or are forecast to occur) all the way to and into the Gulf that a lack of quality moisture return may prevent much in the way of winter time / early season chase opps.

[Shane Adams]

The only thing I've observed (and bought into) regarding the long-scale prediction of an overall severe storm season in the Plains, is a drought-type situation beginning in the previous Fall, and seeing how long it persists into the new year. In the Fall of 2005, the S Plains began a significant period of drought, and as early as December, I was hearing that some chasers were worried this would affect the coming storm season, due to a lack of quality "in place" moisture due to a lack of percip. As it turned out, 2006 was one of the worst Plains chase years in history. How much of that was a result of the severe drought, is anybody's guess.

But I really start paying attention around October if we've had no significant precip for a while, to see how the overall precip pattern plays out through March of the following year. Just something to help pass the days.

Also, the long-wave pattern Jim mentioned is probably the most basic parameter to watch; where the energy goes, the storms go.

[Jeff Passner]

It's obviously impossible to make such a forecast now. In my opinion, tornado records should be taken with the old grain of salt --- more chasers, more people, more educated people about storms, more media, more tornadoes. Who knows how many tornadoes there really were in 1951??? Really, unless it hit something, people never knew it happened. Radar surely did not show it, so who was watching at 2:00 a.m. in Nebraska?

The one thing you can bet is that it will be active "somewhere." 2009 might be great in Iowa, terrible in Texas. Who knows.. Maybe the Dakotas will bounce back in 2009 after a light 2008. Or maybe Texas will finally start acting like Texas again and it will active there. Jim Leonard's point about where the long-wave pattern sets up might be somnething to watch, but even that does not answer the question. In "bad" years you have to be creative; maybe go for the upslope storms in Colorado in June or move to Illinois for the season. Sadly, it's impossible to predict.

[Jason Foster]

bumping for fun post discussion of this old thread.

[Jacob Ferden]

2009 = two death ridges for the price of one. One really good day and three or four decent days. Most pathetic May I've ever seen. Enough said. I can't bear to talk about it anymore.

[Adam Lucio]

2009 tried to teach us to share. It seemed every setup [with yesterday being the first good exception] there was only 1 or 2 storms that ended up tornado-ing.

It also shows that mother nature wants to kepe herself a mystery. V2 had a death ridge, she gave them a little c*ck tease near the end and now went bonkers with plains tornadoes the moment they ceased operation.

Makes ya wonder...

[Austin Funderburgh]

now went bonkers with plains tornadoes the moment they ceased operation.


Not exactly bonkers but it certainly was spread out. Then in a couple days we'll just be back to a dormant state. I've been thinking for about a month that we won't hit 1000 confirmed tornadoes for the year. I stand by that, and I think the only thing that will prove me wrong is another Ivan (or overall busy hurricane-tornado season). It's hard to predict <1000 tornadoes in a year before that year starts. Especially given the whole reason this thread started (a relatively active December of 08)