New Chase Case #1

[Sam Kennedy]

I thought I would start up the chase case scenarios again.

So here we go:

1200z surface(South):
http://i42.tinypic.com/16axmoz.jpg

1200z surface(North):
http://i44.tinypic.com/2l9ih48.jpg

850mb:
http://i44.tinypic.com/2nbr4a8.jpg

700mb:
http://i41.tinypic.com/2m79s8x.jpg

500mb:
http://i40.tinypic.com/iz95yr.jpg

300mb:
http://i40.tinypic.com/feqbv6.jpg

Choose which state you will chase in, and if you want, which counties. I will give a few extra updates throughout the day(Visual Satellite, Radar). There is no bonus for guessing the date, since that isn't how chasing works :P

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Walnut, IA. (This is my first time trying this.) I noted the 68/68 at Red Oak, IA, the SW flow at 850, and I wish the 300 and 300 were more westerly.

Since I live in Omaha, W IA is my target--I don't know about KS and OK, though. Looks more unidirectional with height the further south you go.

I still need help with determining what cap, if any, there is.

[David Wolfson]

It looks like a pretty classic north-central KS setup to me. Lee low on the CO/KS border will develop somewhat during the day somewhat backing the winds, developing a modest dryline, and pulling the moisture toward the front on the KS/NE border. Enough cooler air looks to advect from the west to take care of what capping exists.

I'll call it for morning in Phillipsburg, KS, with good east/west options south of the front.

P.S. Thanks for doing this, Sam. These are fun, instructive, and avoid the perils of virtual chasing.

[Shane Adams]

Looks like the deep moisture is well-east of the dryline, meaning storms will fire and then have to move east before they become tornadic. I'm content to head to Medicine Lodge, KS and hang out eating Pizza Hut pizza and drinking a few beers, while severe storms to my west slowly come to me (and the juice). The gamble is they might not reach me before dark, but I'm betting they will :cool:

[Danny Neal]

Looks like the deep moisture is well-east of the dryline, meaning storms will fire and then have to move east before they become tornadic. I'm content to head to Medicine Lodge, KS and hang out eating Pizza Hut pizza and drinking a few beers, while severe storms to my west slowly come to me (and the juice). The gamble is they might not reach me before dark, but I'm betting they will :cool:

Lol, I was just typing my response saying I would be in Pratt, Kansas eating at the Pizza Hut waiting for isolated storms to develop. You stole my glory Shane-r! Low - risk/ High Reward move. I can sacrifice a chase to hope for a couple isolated supercells to fire out W of my target. Lack of appreciable moisture and slightly veered winds down here may be a thorn in the side!

[Jeff Duda]

This doesn't strike me as an obvious good set up for severe weather. Some fields look good, others not so much. There's definitely a warm front draped across southern Iowa through southern Nebraska, where it becomes more cold front-like down through Texas (significant drying down there, too). No obvious low pressure centers, just a generalized area of somewhat lower pressure from N OK northward through the rest of the plains. There's really good convergence along the boundary near Hastings.

Upper air analysis shows two jet streaks, one stronger than the other. The weaker one is rounding the base of the 300 mb trough over Las Vegas, and the associated upward motion from the right entrance region later on (if it moved that way) could favor action along the cold front in W TX/NW OK, possibly SW KS. The stronger one is zonal over the upper Midwest into southern Canada. The right entrance region of that streak favors areas north of the warm front for enhanced upward motion. Should the warm front really press north, it looks like places like N IA/S MN could be in a good spot.

700 mb chart shows some capping over W TX, so that would really make it difficult for any convection to pop up there. However, at 850, it's not much warmer and is significantly more moist in that same region. That could be due to elevation making the surface at W TX being nearly at 850, though. The northern target (NE/IA/MO/KS) isn't as warm at 700, but is pretty dry, but that's just moisture, not temp.

The one factor that really doesn't help the northern target is upper level vort adv. Both the 300 mb and especially the 500 mb trough axes are way west for significant PVA to kick in if this is at 12Z. Unless that trough is really cruisin (which upper level winds suggest it isn't), PVA will better impact the W TX target.

Since I'm based in IA and my budget is low, I probably wouldn't even chase this unless things really changed throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. But, if I could go, I would probably stick around central Iowa and see what the warm front does. I'd probably stay near it.

[Chris Allington]

I kinda struggled with this one for awhile... there are caveats to both targets.

One thing I really don't like about the northern target is the veered SSWrly surface winds across most of Kansas, Eastern Nebraska, and Western Iowa... but I like the better directional shear at the same time.

I like the surface winds better in the broad warm sector across OK/ TX but as Jeff pointed out... capping is much more pronounced and upper support seems to be lagging behind a bit.

That being said based on the current maps I'm going to stick to the norhtern target, mainly because I like the well defined boundary and directional shear a bit. I like would try to position (file://osition/) just south of the warmfront and near the surface low which appears to be located in South Central Nebraska based on the surface obs, and will probably move to about SUX later in the afternoon. Im gonna head just a bit northeast to Dunlap, IA. I don't want to get real far from that surface low and may move a bit later depending on the updates.

[scott r currens]

I'm making the 2.5 hour drive from Leavenworth to Salina. NW Kansas looks good but I'd like to check the 18z data before commiting to a target.

[Jason Boggs]

I'd set up near the Alva, OK area.

[Dick McGowan]

I'd be setting up shop in Hill City, KS.

[Doug Mitchell]

Probably near Hutchinson, KS with my vehicle pointed west.

[Dean Baron]

Hmmm... either i'm missing something or this is a pretty difficult setup to forecast. Like someone else said there is a really obvious warm front sitting across southern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Surface winds are weak on both sides of the warm front and moisture doesnt look as good as it does farther south. However, farther south it looks like the winds start to veer well ahead of the cold front (and dry line??) and im not impressed given this is a southwest flow setup. My guess is that the center of the low is sitting somewhere in northwest Kansas or southwest Nebraska with a cold front draped southwest in to southeast Colorado and well in to New Mexico. I would sit in either Grand Island, NE or Alva, OK.

[Bob Hartig]

I'm in Des Moines and ready to adjust from there. I think the veered 850s will back a bit, I like the backing surface winds and 40 kt H5, and it looks to me like the upper level jet will strengthen later on and provide some lift.

[Joel Wright]

I'll be sitting in Liberal Kansas.

[Charles Kuster]

I'll start in Belleville, Kansas and will be ready to move west if necessary.

[Matt Sellers]

Kearney, NE as an 18z "staging area." I would expect storm development to my west through southwest; US183 at Elm Creek offers a good north option if necessary. If the warm front doesn't move, then the storm could form right over my head.

[Mike Ridgeway]

I'll probably be heading toward Manhatten, KS. I think the dryline will become more pronounced across western Kansas as the day progresses and I like the upper level winds, especially at 300mb. I'll be curious to see where some of the jet streaks are located later in the day. I'm ok with the moisture (looks good to me) coming from the south. That air has got to rise in north central Kansas! And it should rotate. Although I have been wrong before, unfortunately.

[Andrew Revering]

Its tough to make a decision on the given data. The best guess is 'Nebraska'. We're looking at 12z data as far as I can tell, so with the SW flow we've got to move things downstream quite a bit... I'd guess Eastern Nebraska... thats the most precise I can get at this point.

[zach chappell]

I would be near Lincoln Kansas

[Dennis Dennison]

I will be sitting in El Reno, OK.......:eek:

[Andrea Griffa]

I would head to Quinter,Ks and see the update of the models: we still could have a good 500mb flow (about 40 kts). Anyway I keep an eye on SD.

[Tim Segraves]

Russell, KS was my first thought, possibly shooting south towards Stafford county if cells start popping to the south.

[Brian Stertz]

I would be positioned in Kingman KS and wait for making my later adjustment for the evening show. Things look quiet until early evening. Crickets and meadowlarks. It looks like a weak shortwave moves out of the C/S Rockies and moves into the warm sector. The dryline looks pretty diffuse at 12z, but should begin to sharpen by later in the afternoon. Warm front is enticing, but looks like there could be some capping subsidence by afternoon that should keep things more on the elevated side of things should anything go there.

[Verne Carlson]

I like the divergent flow aloft over central Kansas, I'll start the day at my house in Russell, KS and wait for further data.

[Michael P. Morris]

I would probably start out somewhere near Grand Island, Nebraska as there appears to be an outflow boundary positioned roughly WSW-ENE along Interstate 80. Mid and upper level temperatures seem strong enough to hold off convective development until later on in the day, while a modest shortwave trough at 850/700 looks to pass through the area in the afternoon. My only concern is being too far south for the really screaming 500/300 mb winds, but I have seen events do well with worse.

[Sam Kennedy]

Here is the 18z Radar and Visual Satellite:

http://i44.tinypic.com/35k4cpe.jpg

http://i43.tinypic.com/155m5x2.jpg

Make your final chase decisions before the 0000z update!

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I don't like that stuff in far north IA, referring back to the 12Z surface I think you'd be the Ty-D-Bowl man chasing in a circle.

I do notice two streaks of clouds from GID-SUX and York, NE-OMA. Again, referring to the 12Z the better dews were in SW IA, but that might mean HP grunge and 70/64 at HSI isn't that bad.

I'm heading to Wahoo, NE.

[David Wolfson]

I guess we've been naughty, so no surface obs for us! ;)

Well, from what my poor eyes can pick out, the front is still up by Kearney/Hasings with a hint of a triple-point emerging near there. Some towers may be forming just southeast of me in Phillipsburg consistent with where storms would tend to initiate relative to the above and move somewhat north of east. With the northern side of a minor streak visible near La Junta looking to propagate at 50 kts. or so in my general direction I don't want to be too far east when it arrives(?) in early evening.

So I am packing up to watch and wait a little northeast -- at Red Cloud, NE.

[Chris Allington]

Because of the early convection in N IA, I'm heading back SW twoards Waverly, NE and maybe just north of there on HWY 6. There are alot of road options in the are but with the Platte River, you can run into some occasional hills and trees.

[Dean Baron]

I'll stick with Grand Island, NE ready to head east.

[Dennis Sherrod]

I think I will try a Beatrice, NE. starting point.

[Bob Hartig]

Heading SW to Syracuse, NE. To the west, Cu towers on satellite also showing on radar, with a hint of a N-S boundary extending to their south; to the east, a river crossing at Nebraska City. Looking forward to surface obs.

[Michael P. Morris]

I think I'm in a good spot right now, with the outflow boundary just to my north and a triple point setting up to the SW which should propagate in my direction along with the mid-level disturbance evident on the morning analysis. If anything, I may drop just a bit south to Hastings, but the coffee at this diner is pretty good.

Of course, surface obs would help my decision...

[Andrea Griffa]

This time I will play the dry line, and I start moving toward Great Bend,Ks waiting for a surface analysis map and SPC Mesoanalysis (I probably would move to Pratt after have seen the models update)

[Danny Neal]

I am standing pat with Pratt, Kansas. I have data, I have US 54 and 281 for E-W and N-S options and I can see for miles. I start seeing towers go off....I am gone!

[Verne Carlson]

On the road now and drifting south out of Russell towards Great Bend, KS

[Jerry Prsha]

I've got to go with a setup and wait in Hastings, NE. Great spot to head to the action but I'd expect things to pop on the Kansas border and strengthen into Nebraska.

[Andrew Revering]

I'm going to go just northeast of Grand Island and sit in Central City, NE.

[Laura Duchesne]

Sitting in Hays, KS to eat some lunch and wait a little bit yet, with lots of road options. Might head north later. Would prefer to stick near the triple point low.

[Adam Lucio]

Id be chilling at the monkey motel in Russell, KS
'
I could easily drop south should things get going down there, and if the northern end lights up, it wouldn't be impossible to play catch up

[Jason Boggs]

I'm now high tailing it to the OK-KS border on I-35 to wait for initiation down the dryline. While most are north of my location, I will have a supercell or two to play with all by myself.

[Chris Frost]

I'm going where I didn't go the first time...Mulvane, KS.

[Brian Stertz]

Holding steady and patient in Kingman KS and will be awaiting further data...hopefully get some initiation before sunset within 30 miles of my camp out spot.

[Tim Segraves]

Holding steady in Russell, KS for me. I think somewhere between Russell and Pratt still looks good.

[Matthew Fischer]

I would be sitting in Wakeeney, KS. Just sit and wait for anything to happen, take a nap and hope the dry line doesn't come through!

[Shane Adams]

I'm on beer #4 and loving life in Medicine Lodge (it's ok, Bridget is driving today). The pizza's gone, and I'm about to tab out, and go sit on the west side of town to wait for 6 o' clock magic.

[Dick McGowan]

I'm going where I didn't go the first time...Mulvane, KS.

Come on dude, if you really did look up the day, keep it to yourself and leave the guessing for the rest of us. It's no fun to spoil it for everyone else. :rolleyes:

Anyways...I'll head south to Medicine Lodge, KS and play the dryline and hope I don't capbust. Be nice to at least have some surface obs instead of radar/vis sat!

[Danny Neal]

Come on dude, if you really did look up the day, keep it to yourself and leave the guessing for the rest of us. It's no fun to spoil it for everyone else. :rolleyes:

Agreed if you know it please just PM and not ruin it for the others :mad:

[David Wolfson]

Maybe Mulvane is the place to be in this case, but it's not the Mulvane day -- June 12, 2004. See http://members.cox.net/jondavies2/061204scks/061204scks.htm
(http://members.cox.net/jondavies2/061204scks/061204scks.htm)

[Chris Frost]

LOL...naw what I said was a total guess it just sorta reminded me of that day :) Also could be the Sitka bust day lol...dunno need a few frames later on the radar and the satellite
:)

[Mark Farnik]

I'm going to park my car on the west edge of Newton, KS and await initiation. I'm right at the junction of I-135 and Highway 50, so I can adjust north towards McPherson, west towards Hutchinson or south towards Wichita as necessary.

[Matt Sellers]

I'm staying in Kearney - at the I-80/NE-44 intersection.

[Tom Dulong]

I'm holding in Belleville, KS. Poised to head west, but also good road options other directions.

[CraigFisher]

I am going to hang at home for a bit, Beatrice, NE.

[jeremy wilson]

I'm gonna join Shane at medicine lodge and hope he buys me a couple beers. I like supreme stuffed crust by the way Shane. Looks like photogenic tornados right at dusk with the setting sun illuminating a nice stovepipe.

[Scott Weberpal]

I don't see this event occuring anywhere in W. KS, the 850/700 trof axis at 12z is already in W. KS (with shortwave ridging to the west) and I would assume it is moving NEward. 18z visible satellite indicates limited LL moisture in W. KS (no cu = limited moisture, little mixing).

My target is NC/NE KS into SC/SE NE. I guess Hebron, NE would be as good of a starting spot as any. I would expect storms to initiate along or east of the Hwy 281 corridor.

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm on 135 half way between Salina and Wichita.

[Danny Neal]

I decided to mosey up 281 from Pratt to Great Bend. About a 45 minute to an hour ride. Still puts me in prime position for the southern KS area and gives me a shot at NC KS.

[Brian Stertz]

I am camped out in Kingman watching some towers perculate all quads. Hurry up wave....need something during the daylight !! Some data would really be nice this late afternoon hour. On my second cherry limeade from Sonic and getting that nervous stomach that pops up pre-initiation. Oh I think a MCD is out....hmmmm.

[Sam Kennedy]

It is now 2000z

Tornadoes Reported in NE IA:

TORNADO
1928: 2 W HOLLAND IA
(DMX)

TORNADO
1938: 3 N GRUNDY CENTER IA
TORNADO CROSSING HIGHWAY 14 WITH DEBRIS. STATE PATROL REPORT.(DMX)

TORNADO 12
1949: 7 SWDIKE IA
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD DIKE.(DMX)

Do you speed North East to catch up with the tornadoes in IA, or do you wait for your own storms to develop:

2000z Surface:
http://i42.tinypic.com/2aqmiq.jpg

2000z Vis Sat:
http://i42.tinypic.com/akk7yh.jpg

2000z Radar:
http://i41.tinypic.com/35a28ut.jpg

Final Update will be at (real) 1800z tomorrow, if you want this time made later/earlier just PM me.

[Scott Weberpal]

Given my starting spot was Hebron, NE and I wouldn't make it into Northeast or Northcentral Iowa where the initial tornadoes are in time; I'd be moving straight north on Hwy 81 toward Norfolk to get on the front (and what looks like weak low pressure in the area) and hope for something to go up on the western end of the front near the low. Looks like the a nice cu field in the area and slightly backed surface flow, so I'll sit along the Hwy 81 corridor between Norfolk, NE and Yankton, SD and hope for something to go sout and west of the MO River.

[Danny Neal]

I think I am going to stick it out in Great Bend or thereabouts. The dryline is out to the west near DDC (95/39 SW wind) But those Cu in Central KS grabbed my attention as well. ICT area on down to the south has slightly backed winds. I feel confident I can catch anything from down there. Just hoping I don't get burned by convection firing near KC - TOP

[Bob Hartig]

Think I'm gonna drop down to US 136, mosey west, and see what happens with that Cu field on the other side of the clearing out ahead. Be nice if surface winds were backed, but I'll take southerlies; if a storm forms, it may just back the winds for me.

[Chris Allington]

I am gonna head north on HWY 6 to get closer to the front... I'm now in West Point, NE. After about 45 minuets, and I can see the towers of those two little blips in extreme Western Iowa.

[Josh Richardson]

Thankfully, I stayed put in my home area and am already on the currently warned storm.

Honestly though, looking at the 1800z sat image this event looked really familiar and now after the latest data and sat image I still cant seem to place my finger on what event this was. Considering this is in my neck of the woods Im kinda surprised by that.

[Michael P. Morris]

I decided to roll eastward towards Omaha, in the hopes that a storm will fire up here and travel northeast into deeper moisture along the NE-IA border. Now that the OFB has decided to push back to the north, it looks like the best spot is SE Nebraska.

[Josh Richardson]

Thankfully, I stayed put in my home area and am already on the currently warned storm.

Honestly though, looking at the 1800z sat image this event looked really familiar and now after the latest data and sat image I still cant seem to place my finger on what event this was. Considering this is in my neck of the woods Im kinda surprised by that.

Ok, I am heading back to the west to let the latest development in West Central IA come to me.

TARGET: Humboldt County IA

[Damon Scott Hynes]

there's the continuation of the NE IA stuff forming a DMX-Red Oak-Mound City line, but since I went to Wahoo, I'm going to drift west toward Columbus, NE.

That 90/65 in central KS keeps me from heading down there. If you're in Lexington or Ainsworth, game over. Whatever happens in NE/KS is going to be very localized.

[scott r currens]

My bust detector is going off for KS. The easy play from Salina is to drop south to the weak convergence line/CU in central KS. That seems like a low probability play. I don't have to work tomorrow so I'll make a run at E Central Nebraska. 237-miles to Greeley, NE if I don't jump on a supercell before I get there.

Target: Greeley, NE

[David Wolfson]

The upper forcing feature near La Junta two hours later has moved to the KS border at Tribune/Sharon Springs. It's even firing a few towers west of Garden City in high 30s dews. The Burlington obs -- 87/29 SW 15 -- gets my attention as does the diffuse surface low south of McCook. The front has decomposed into boundaries one of which appears just northeast of me in Red Cloud.

The bottom line is I'll stay put for now drinking diet Mountain Dew and watching sat and radar.

[Verne Carlson]

I'm way too far out of position to have gotten to IA. I like the slightly backed winds in Wichita and am now making my way from Great Bend, KS over to Hutchinson and posibly to Newton waiting for the CU field to start building to turkey towers.

[Dennis Sherrod]

I'm staying put for awhile. I like it here for now.

[Joel Wright]

Been sitting on my ass in Liberal Kansas since 12z, but decided to drop about 50 miles south into the northern Texas Panhandle near Spearman.

[Tim Segraves]

I'm probably going to slowly start heading south and east towards McPherson so I'm far enough out in front of anything that starts firing.

[Brian Stertz]

I am going to play this surface convergence boundary (Great Bend to Alva) to my west for initiation. Whether this happens before dark, I am a bit nervous. The T-Td depressions are a little high but are likely to come down as the wave moves in and winds begin to back a little more as sunset approaches. Lapse rates should be also pretty favorable for my area in SC Kansas too for some big daddy supercells. NE Iowa does look good at this point (20z) ....but we'll see if Kansas lights up and gets after it towards sunset. Better get the gear lined up soon after I grab a quick dinner to go...with my jumbo Mtn. Dew. Still parked in Kingman KS. Yee ha....love the sound of ripping south winds and meadowlarks in the afternoon. Hey there goes Jeff and Kathryn ;) !!

[Danny Neal]

It is 20Z, I am in Great Bend. I am too antsy to just sit still and wait for initiation....So I am driving east on US 56. Will end up in Lyons in thirty minutes to stop at the general store and grab a quick bag of chips.

Bust or not I am sticking it out in Lyons. US 56 and KS 14. Between McPherson and Great Bend.

If I bust today I am on a virtual chasecation so I will pray for another event or two in the coming days? lol

I don't expect tornadoes in KS today, it just doesn't look as conducive as IA and NE do. If I can get a couple supercells that are photogenic and produce monster hail, I will consider it a success

[Dustin Wilcox]

I got a late start so I have to stick to NE, I'd be sitting in SC NE somewhere Near Arapahoe, playing the "poke" region in the backed winds and upper 50 dews being pulled back West, cursing the fact that I can't see RUC Mesoanalysis page . I'm still awaiting the arrival of the upper level energy, but am becoming concerned with Cirrus just to my West, I am also VERY nervous that Brian is sitting 250 Miles to my South....

[Matthew Fischer]

I'm going to head north from Wakeeney, ks to Taylor, NE. The warm front looks good now. Google maps says it takes 4 hours i'll make that little less...depending on trucks! Just hope night doesn't hurt me!

[Doug Mitchell]

Driving north to Concorida, KS

[Adam Lucio]

I know I wont reach the stuff in IA, so I may start to head west a bit towards Hays, to get closer to the advancing dryline in case it erupts. It will also put me on a better road grid as well.

[Andrew Revering]

I'm re-adjusting after the latest data. I was in Central City, NE.... now I'm moving 86 miles to Norfolk, NE. Enhanced CU around what appears to be a strengthening area of low pressure, along the advancing warm front. Nice surface wind jet axis and moisture axis into this area. I don't know if the boundary/low will still be in the area after my 1hr 45 min drive to Norfolk, but we'll see what happens.

I have a feeling the stuff near Omaha is going to go bonkers in a minute... but I'll stick with my game plan and head to Norfolk.

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm moving along 400 to Kingman, hoping for at least 22Z surface analysis map ;)

[Sam Kennedy]

Okay 2200z updates.

Surface:
http://i41.tinypic.com/2z527va.jpg

Radar:
http://i39.tinypic.com/2075ovq.jpg

Satellite:
http://i42.tinypic.com/ao13q.jpg

Reports:
http://i44.tinypic.com/33a9edc.jpg

So are you calling it a bust and going home? or are you going to wait around another few hours and see if anything happens?

[Dick McGowan]

Edit: My decision was made based on the 2000z data.

I'm moving east/northeast to Pratt, KS. There's not much convergence along the dryline, and I can see something huge happening in SC/SE Nebraska...so I'll head there to wait till dark if nothing goes, and get hammered at a bar while watching everyone else bag further north! That is one deep surface low!

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks for the update;) I'm seeing just now a very good setup NE of Grand Islands,Ne (ahead of the low) but it's too late for me and I stay here in Kingman, waiting for the cap to break within 7pm. Edit: I like so much the four sided Norfolk-Columbus-Inman-S.Paul in front of the low.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Okay 2200z updates.

Bugger--my company's firewall is blocking the images :mad: Time to head toward the nearest CU and switch to local AM radio, LOL!

[Dean Baron]

I will also be hauling @$$ towards Norfolk, NE, coming frmo Grand Island. Depending on how things look I may just continue to the SD border if nothing fires before I get to Norfolk.

[Scott Weberpal]

Still liking the Norfolk to Yankton area along Hwy 81, looks good a bit to the west as well toward Ainsworth. Guess I'll continue to sit in Norfolk and hope something pops before dark here or slightly to the west. There's a little area of surface convergence just west of Norfolk where 15 kt SErlys are bumping against weaker 5kt winds to the west. Don't like how weak the sfc winds are in my target, but they are backed nicely and should yield enhanced LL helicity in the immediate area. Perhaps a weak tube if I can get a storm.

[Adam Lucio]

Im staying put in Hays, Im out of range for anything that is currently going on.

At this point given what I see there is still some potential for things to fire up anywhere from southern NE to southern KS...so Im choosing to put myself in the middle of "the zone" to increase my chances of being not too far should something get going...although my confidence is starting to go down, and Im thinking about beating the crowds to Applebees and getting my seat now.

[Dustin Wilcox]

I really like my position in Arapahoe now for at least seeing some convection, I have bubbling CU all around and starting to get some TCU to my South (even a little return now showing up) At this point I am getting pissed at the lack of reporting stations in NW KS and I'd really like to see some upperlevel charts, given the recent elevated convection in W NE I'd say the wave is knocking on the door, I'd be drifting East now giving myself an angle at more options (probably would end up near hwy 4 and 281 intersection, though given how fast things are happening I might choose a storm before then; I'm still relatively confident in the SC NE area...

[Bob Hartig]

I'll bite. Can't ignore those backing winds to the north any longer. I'm scrambling up US 81 as fast as I can for the US 20 intersection, and like Dean, may continue toward Yankton. Right now I'm just happy to be in eastern Nebraska and headed north.

[Jeff Duda]

Since I'm based in IA and my budget is low, I probably wouldn't even chase this unless things really changed throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. But, if I could go, I would probably stick around central Iowa and see what the warm front does. I'd probably stay near it.

Wow, I feel smart! Being a novice/intermediate chaser, I seem to have been in a good position initially to get to the storms in N IA. Admittedly, after I saw the 18Z radar data (assuming that's all I could see), I was headed towards Omaha. However, it seems after seeing the 21Z stuff, I would be flying up I-29 and looking for Highway 20 or some other west-east major US highway.

[Josh Richardson]

Ok, I am heading back to the west to let the latest development in West Central IA come to me.

TARGET: Humboldt County IA


Looks like Im in great position, I've made it back to the west in time to chase the explosive development in the Pocahontas and Humboldt County area. Wouldnt be surprised to see a decent TOR now.

[Andrew Revering]

Being in Norfolk I've got my eggs in this basket. But I haven't given up hope yet. Looking at satellite and obs I still like this area. I think the low is actually just to my west, and there's the teeniest blip on radar in eastern Knox County, Nebraska. So I'm drifting north out of Norfolk to the corner of 81 and 84, just east of Wausa, NE to intercept the blip... maybe it will turn into something more??

[Brian Stertz]

5pm and cap holding....will there be explosive development before dark? :rolleyes: Looks like the wave has reached the TX Panhandle so will be a close call for things in SC Kansas for before dark chasing. Things could be pretty interesting in the 7-9pm timeframe the way things are looking with the timing of the wave. I will hold here in Kingman a little longer, and make my decisions to move on as soon as things become a little more clear cut. The cap is holding tough no doubt about it. As long as I see some vertical development within the next hour, I should be fine....as will Andrea who is also hanging out in town. I would expect a tornado watch shortly. :cool:

[Danny Neal]

After a quick power nap from 4-5 pm in Lyons. I log on to see the 5PM update and see towers growing in the Texas Panhandle. I decide to shoot back west on US 56 and hit Dodge City in 2 hours and 15 minutes to see what happens!

Since it will be about 7:30, if nothing fires by 9 PM I can always get a room and see if Mike U is working ;)

(From Pratt to Great Bend to Lyons to end up in Dodge City..... Same general areas gotta love the KS scenery though. That's what storm chasing is all about!)

[David Wolfson]

Still holding in Red Cloud, NE. Expecting (hoping for) initiation within the next hour just a bit southwest of me as upper impulse starts to act on the upper 60s dews. If nothing in an hour or so I'll book my room in Hastings or Grand Island for tomorrow's action and start to mosey my way up there for sunset pics through the cirrus.... :(

[Mike Ridgeway]

I'm still throwing rocks at telephone poles just outside of Manhattan, KS. Wish I had more upper air data to go with, I'd like to look for some divergence aloft and see how that ties in with any convergence at the surface. But there is a blip on the radar and cumulus build up in NW KS that looks interesting. I still have time to go west, north or south from my location. But I'm also eyeing those towers in the TX panhandle. If they continue to blossum, I've got time to intercept their northeast movement. In other words, they'd be heading my way. So I'll wait just a tad longer for more radar and satellite data before making a decision.

[Michael P. Morris]

I think I am going to stick here in Omaha. Nothing has really changed in my area, and I'm too far east to race out to meet the developing storms near the Nebraska panhandle.

[Joel Wright]

Looks like the dryline might be trying to pop in the northern TX panhandle. I'm still in Spearman TX waiting for a good cell to go after. Obviously I'm waaaay too far south to get up near that active warm front in Nebraska and Iowa. Guess if nothing else maybe I'll get a picturesque storm along the dryline.

If I bust I'm going to Amarillo to see if I can eat that big steak (72oz?).

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Ok now that I'm home and can look at the satellite and the surface map...I'm heading south to US-6...to take train photos! I'm not driving to Norfolk, if anything pops in S-SE Neb I'll be in the neighborhood, and it's more or less on the way home.

[Chris Allington]

Staying between Norfolk, NE and my previous location in West Point, NE under the cu field and praying for something before sunset.

[Doug Mitchell]

Bahhh, I remembered the date now. I'm out.

[Verne Carlson]

I'm now driving slowly in the right hand lane along I-35 between Wichita and Salina. If something pops along the dryline I can shoot north or south to it. If nothing happens it's back to Wiskey Creek in Hays for dinner!

[Brian Stertz]

Things look ready to go...now the clock is ticking down before sunset. Hopefully the cap can be breached with a vengance soon. Growing a little impatient in Kingman but will hold my ground unless there is something more immediate and nearby to get me on the move. Tornado Watch is in effect. Wave is now approaching from sw so will the dryline fire to allow for some daytime chase ops?? Knowing my luck with SC Kansas chases, it will really get after it after sunset.

[Robert Edmonds]

I know I am a little late to starting on this thread... but I would have been in Liberal, KS... I'd probably still be there waiting. All the stuff in Iowa would be way to far to get to. Since it is a long ways back home, I'll be sticking it out till sundown too, unless there's a target for tomorrow.

[Laura Duchesne]

Now I see a cu field with slight instability developing in W KS, but I am not liking the inversion. It is roasting here in Hays. I am hoping for more development further E so going to work my way towards Salina, with options to go north or south later. Sfc winds are much better east of my current position.

[Scott Weberpal]

Staying put in Norfolk, still think it's the best area for potential tornadoes.

Given the data, here is how I think the day plays out (IF there are more storms).

It appears the dryline in KS has a slight shot of a big hailer developing somewhere between DDC and Salina. Tdd appears too large for tornado potential, so if there are tornadoes, they would likely be after dark when the LCLs come down a bit. I'm going with a 40% chance of large hail reports in KS.

In Nebraska, with a deep cu field already visible, getting a few storms before dark north of I-80 shouldn't be a problem. LCLs look like they'll be a bit on the high side as well with 85/67 reported at Norfolk. Fortuantely, along an just north of the active warm front (just north of Norfolk) temps are in the 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60's...much better for tornado making. I still think the only legit shot for daytime tornadoes (other than the ones already reported in IA) will be in NW IA or Northeast NE. I'm still hedging my bets on something developing in the area of strong ascent present in northeast NE. >65% chance of large hail and wind reports in Northeast NE/NW IA with a 10% chance of tornadoes. NOTE: My percentages are not based on percentages given by SPC and what they represent, I'm basically giving probabilities based on how I feel the day will pan out.

[Shane Adams]

Just waiting for the conclusion of this exercise. I virtual chase like I real chase, which means I've been in Medicine Lodge (where I started) eating pizza and drinking beer for four days now. Any chance of getting a solution to this event soon? I need to go to the bathroom.

PS - If you're gonna spout off in public about knowing the date, expect to be PMed about it and don't hold out....that's a chickensh*t move ;)

[Bob Hartig]

Been wondering the same thing. In my last post, I planned to head north up US 81, hoping to hit the WF with a little light to spare. I'm now way the heck up in Manitoba and starting to encounter dogsled traffic. Probably should turn around--I think I may have overshot my mark. No beers for me yet, but I did stop and pick up a six-pack of Schmoe's Hopknocker for later. Any of you guys hanging around NE Nebraska, I'll treat you to a cold one if you haven't all gone home by the time I make it back down to the lower 48.

Seriously, I'm sitting at US 81 and US 20 hoping for some fireworks. But the Hopknocker part is true enough, and y'all are welcome to one after the show.

[Dennis Sherrod]

I hope something happens soon. There are only 18 streets in Beatrice and I have been pulled over on 17 of them in the last 3 days.
But, I still hanging on here, hoping and wishing.

[Dick McGowan]

I found a couple of smoking hot college chicks home for the summer in Pratt and they're interested in chasing, then partying...so I'm gonna wait until sundown for initiation to my west and if nothing goes, I'm going to let these two ladies show me what Pratt has to offer.

[Adam Lucio]

I just found out about the party on Dicks facebook and have now abandoned my target and am blasting south towards Pratt. If I see one of these towers develop into something good I may take a detour...

[Danny Neal]

You guys are meeting in Pratt and then coming west on 54 to Dodge City riiiiight? ;)

Still holding strong in Dodge City, while noticing some towers starting to pop to my S and SW.....It may be show time!

Party at Umscheids!

[Dann Cianca]

Saw Dick's Facebook status. Stopping at the liq right now ...

[Jason Boggs]

Yep, I gave up now since it's dark. I'm heading to Pratt with the guys. Dick, you got some competition now buddy!

[Scott Weberpal]

Found the girls that washed the chase van back in 2004 in Norfolk and setup a little party for later that evening...(this really happened, local cheerleading squad was having a fundraiser 4 years ago). They all have to be over 18 now.

http://www.tornadofx.com/norfolk02.jpg

http://www.tornadofx.com/norfolk01.jpg

[Joel Wright]

Still sitting in Spearman Texas. Apparently I've found a worm hole since time has basically stood still for over a day.

I'm about to leave TX and head north to the big party in Dodge City...

[Bob Hartig]

Nice photos, Scott. Sam, you might just want to roll out the results before folks here get too preoccupied to even give a rip about storms. :rolleyes:

[Jason Boggs]

Nice photos, Scott. Sam, you might just want to roll out the results before folks here get too preoccupied to even give a rip about storms. :rolleyes:

I'm thinking that's already occured! :D

[Brian Stertz]

Now that is gold Dennis....laughed so hard I fell off my chair. Been there and done that before in Beatrice. Well I fear they have dropped the 15% hatched for a 2% and the stubborn cap won't budge. I am going to get some pizza and see if that works to get storms to pop. Seems to work in RL as a nice dinner means that eyes are off the sky and on to the plate....at which time things like to go crazy !!

Happy New Years btw everybody !! Seems like this chase really has rolled over into the New Year (said with sarcastic tone)

[Sam Kennedy]

Okay Everybody seems to have made their mind up so I will post the final storm reports:

0200z:
http://i39.tinypic.com/15ge7f6.jpg

There was a lot of hail through Kansas, and 2 tornadoes touched down in Nebraska, did you catch them? or were you too distracted by your plate? :D

0300z:
http://i43.tinypic.com/1enakz.jpg

More Hail in Kansas, and a Tornado was reported on the NE-SD border

0400z:
http://i41.tinypic.com/28jzh35.jpg

Hail in the Nebraska panhandle, and another Tornado Reported in Nebraska

0500z:
http://i43.tinypic.com/2s127gk.jpg

Some more Hail in Nebraska

So, was the Chase worth it? Was it a bust? Did you miss any storms or Tornadoes?

The Date was May 21st 2004

[David Wolfson]

No joy for me. Even missed the festivities in Norfolk. Nailed the next day, though http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040522_rpts.html :rolleyes:
(http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040522_rpts.html)

[Dennis Sherrod]

I don't feel too bad. I stayed around Beatrice the whole time waiting and two of the tornados were about 110 - 120 miles north. I may have just made one of those. Now the next day, I would have been a real happy camper if I continued to stay in this area.

[Shane Adams]

I always just try to guess what day it is and then do what I did for real.

I didn't even chase May 21, 2004, so you know I busted bahahahahaha.

These exercises are a perfect example of how I cannot garner any info from those upper air charts. They have always looked like scrambled eggs to me; I need pretty colored graphics to be able to discern what is what and where everything is...I guess I just cut my teeth in the internet age so the old-school style of map reading is lost on me.

The only thing I was able to understand was the surface chart, which I based everything off of. It reminded me of May 29, 2004 because of how far east the deep moisture was ahead of the dryline from southern KS southward into OK, so I just played it like I chased that day. If I'd had models to look at, I likely would've stayed home (apparently, since I balked at this day in reality).

Interesting fun...but I think 1-2 day solutions would be best.

[scott r currens]

Okay, so this was May 21, 2004 (http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/040521/index.html).

In real life I sat this one out opting to wait for May 22. May 22nd was one of my all time worst chases. I think I did everything humanly possible to avoid seeing tornadoes in Nebraska. To bad I didn't chase the 21st. The supercell that produced the Norfolk, NE tornadoes initiated at 0z 23-miles north of my 0z Greeley, NE target.

5/21/2004 REPORTS: NE/IA/SD/KS (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=508)
George Kourounis Norfolk, NE tornado (http://www.stormchaser.ca/Tornadoes/2004_05_21_Norfolk/2004_05_21_Norfolk.html)
Amos Magliocco NE of Norfolk, NE (http://www.cycloneroad.com/2004May21.htm)
Dan Robinson Norfolk, NE (http://wvlightning.com/may212004.shtml)


My bust detector is going off for KS. The easy play from Salina is to drop south to the weak convergence line/CU in central KS. That seems like a low probability play. I don't have to work tomorrow so I'll make a run at E Central Nebraska. 237-miles to Greeley, NE if I don't jump on a supercell before I get there.

Target: Greeley, NE

[Danny Neal]

I got some good hailers in Dodge City and beautiful structure from supercells that refused to rotate. I can't complain. I will wake up early the next morning and head N! lol

[Dean Baron]

sweet, I would've been in perfect position for either the Norfolk storm or if I had continued north, the storm near Yankton.

[Brian Stertz]

5/21/04 ...I did not chase this day in RL and this was when I still lived in Tulsa. This was certainly a day of Iowa and Nebraska tornadoes, but the more significant tornadoes were the Bradgate (F2) and Palo (F3) IA ones. I believe the HP structures on these two tornadic supercells made chasing a bit difficult as I recall from reading reports and seeing video. I kind of busted on this exercise....but were some good hailers out by Dodge. I should always know that my luck with Iowa warm fronts/outflow boundaries is pretty good. But then again I have seen more tornadoes in Kansas than anywhere else so had that on my mind too.

[Bob Hartig]

I'm a happy camper. Not only did I catch the two tornadoes by Hadar, NE, but I also witnessed the Hallam wedge the following day. Must have been traumatized by the Hallam event, since I have no memories of either of those days, so I'm just as pleased as can be to realize I was there.

I enjoyed this scenario because it gave me a chance to compare notes with some pretty seasoned chasers. Sam, you excerpted this from Tim's "Forecast Laboratory," right? I'll put in a plug for the Lab. It's a great learning tool. As Shane noted, it skips all the colored graphics, indexes, CAPE, and so forth, and gives you just 12z upper air charts and soundings, and hourly surface obs, radar, and satellite. I've owned the Lab for a couple months, now. The virtue of the thing, for me, is that it's forcing me to learn, think through stuff I otherwise would probably never deal with, and try to project what will have happened with 12z upper-air features by 21z and 00z. What has amazed me is, I've actually been experiencing a fair amount of success! For a fledgling forecaster, the Lab has been a confidence builder.

Bring on the next one, Sam.

Oh...and Happy New Year, everyone. :)

[Scott Weberpal]

I got some good hailers in Dodge City and beautiful structure from supercells that refused to rotate. I can't complain. I will wake up early the next morning and head N! lol

Doesn't a supercell by definition have to rotate? ;)

I know what you're trying to say, just giving you a hard time.

[Darren Addy]

Kudos to Sam Kennedy for starting this little exercise. (I'm pleased to see the wide range of chasers participating.) Based upon Sam's experience level however, (as indicated by this thread (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=18991&page=2)) I think that a more experienced chaser might provide a more complete/realistic set of information from which to simulate the fine-tuning of the chase day decision-making process for exercises #2 (and beyond?).

Any takers?

[Bob Hartig]

Kudos to Sam Kennedy for starting this little exercise. (I'm pleased to see the wide range of chasers participating.) Based upon Sam's experience level however, (as indicated by this thread (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=18991&page=2)) I think that a more experienced chaser might provide a more complete/realistic set of information from which to simulate the fine-tuning of the chase day decision-making process for exercises #2 (and beyond?).

Any takers?


Sam's case looks to have been excerpted directly from Tim V's "Forecast Laboratory," and if that's the case, then what you saw is pretty much what you get. The only way I can think of improving the exercise using the Lab would be to provide the full suite of hourly runs--or maybe two-hour runs--of surface obs, radar, and (if it's available) satellite, and then set a time limit for folks to respond, so that a one-day event doesn't get stretched out over a week. :)

I agree that more detailed info would be extremely helpful and more realistic, but I'm thinking it would take a lot more time to pull together.

[Danny Neal]

Doesn't a supercell by definition have to rotate? ;)

I know what you're trying to say, just giving you a hard time.

Lol its a New Years hangover....... I should say "produce!" :D

[Chad Cowan]

Kudos to Sam Kennedy for starting this little exercise. (I'm pleased to see the wide range of chasers participating.) Based upon Sam's experience level however, (as indicated by this thread (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=18991&page=2)) I think that a more experienced chaser might provide a more complete/realistic set of information from which to simulate the fine-tuning of the chase day decision-making process for exercises #2 (and beyond?).

Any takers?

I going to put Day # 2 together this afternoon as I'm watching football and nursing this hangover.

[Danny Neal]

I going to put Day # 2 together this afternoon as I'm watching football and nursing this hangover.

lol I hear that! This hockey game is giving me more pain then the celebration last night. Look forward to starting another one, it really passes the time (Least with me). Good work Sam, congrats on your first one!

[Andrea Griffa]

I saw some striatures near Pratt but I did abandon my sculpted supercell and headed to the Pratt's party: I couldn't resist:D See ya the next party.

[Joel Wright]

Wow. Didn't see any tornadoes in the northern Texas panhandle but was on a storm dropping 4.25" sized hail. Hopefully I was careful or the next day would have been spent getting the windshield replaced instead of chasing in Nebraska.

[Chad Cowan]

lol I hear that! This hockey game is giving me more pain then the celebration last night. Look forward to starting another one, it really passes the time (Least with me). Good work Sam, congrats on your first one!

No kiddin... what happened to the blackhawks?!?


** Any requests for data to be provided in the next one? I'm starting at 12z and along with upper air, soundings and surface plots I'm going to show some mesoanalysis data and maybe some RUC data if I can figure out the archive at Earl's wxcaster.

[Jason Boggs]

I saw some mammatus after dark near Pratt! Thanks Dick!

[Dick McGowan]

I saw some mammatus after dark near Pratt! Thanks Dick!

LOL! No problem! Those waking up in Pratt with a hangover better get north and east quickly or we're going to miss a monster in Nebraska!

[Brian Stertz]

Yeah I think Daykin NE is a good place to be Dick ....northbound for Day 2. Maybe this time I won't choose the big HP monster up by Fremont. That one had huge hail but was a big mess to chase.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

05/21/04...I was at a Dairy Queen in west Omaha that night...you could read a newspaper from the lightning 60 mi. to my N-NW. And I had no idea what the next day held...:o

[Andrew Revering]

I've apparently been concurrently working on a case study as well. I've got a boatload of maps, including some model forecast data that we can use along with the surface data from the morning. I'll post it probably later tonight ... as either Case #2 or #3 depending on if Chad got his posted before mine.

[Josh Richardson]

Looks like I ended up on the Bradgate TOR, of course I couldnt really see it anyway so it didnt matter.

[Tim Segraves]

Pretty much a bust for me. I guess I could count it as a visit to my dad in Stafford, KS. Looking forward to the next one. Thanks for putting these together!

[Dennis Dennison]

As I didnt have a chance to see any of the updated reports, my original point of el Reno was not the best, but had I been out there for real, I would have headed North, but catching anything this trip would seem doubtful

[Paul Austin]

I was late to this party, but just looking at the maps and picking an initial target and making adjustments with each update, I would have targeted an area around Hays and drifted toward Salina, KS. I probably would have waited the dry line out in this area trying to decide whether or not to move north. I probably would have stayed south. Iowa was way outside of my area.

[Dann Cianca]

Found the girls that washed the chase van back in 2004 in Norfolk and setup a little party for later that evening...(this really happened, local cheerleading squad was having a fundraiser 4 years ago). They all have to be over 18 now.

http://www.tornadofx.com/norfolk02.jpg

http://www.tornadofx.com/norfolk01.jpg

I still can't get over this one ... hahahaha ... love the guy in the van with the cam out.