Chase Case #2

[Chad Cowan]

It's mid-spring and there is a powerful system moving across the Rockies... there will be tornadoes and picturesque supercells today, but where? I will provide three updates (12z [this update], 18z, and 00z) and then reveal the final storm reports with pictures. Good luck!

EDIT: Once you pick your target I will put it on this map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/export/54011 or you can do it yourself if you sign up for a wayfaring account. TO BE POSTED ON THE MAP YOU HAVE TO PICK A CITY.


http://img367.imageshack.us/img367/4591/53513479lz9.jpg

12z 500mb geopotential height: (CLICK THUMBNAILS TO ENLARGE!)
http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/2592/12z500colorsp9.th.jpg (http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/2592/12z500colorsp9.jpg)

12z 500mb:
http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/6928/12z500uy9.th.gif (http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/6928/12z500uy9.gif)

12z 700mb:
http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/4794/12z700oq6.th.gif (http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/4794/12z700oq6.gif)

12z 850mb:
http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/42/12z850ww3.th.gif (http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/42/12z850ww3.gif)

12z sfc obs and features:
http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/2289/12zsfcgy6.th.jpg (http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/2289/12zsfcgy6.jpg)

12z IR Satellite:
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/7303/12zirgk6.th.jpg (http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/7303/12zirgk6.jpg)

12z Radar:
http://img224.imageshack.us/img224/7872/12zradarhi7.th.jpg (http://img224.imageshack.us/img224/7872/12zradarhi7.jpg)

12z CAPE and CIN:
http://img78.imageshack.us/img78/664/12zcapejf3.th.jpg (http://img78.imageshack.us/img78/664/12zcapejf3.jpg)



Regional surface views:

12z Temps: Midwest (http://img71.imageshack.us/img71/4232/12zmwteo8.jpg) , Southern Plains (http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/5788/12zsptyo9.jpg)

12z Dew points: Midwest (http://img387.imageshack.us/img387/9120/12zmwdpqe2.jpg) , Southern Plains (http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/6456/12zspdpgb1.jpg)

12z Precipitable Water: Midwest (http://img78.imageshack.us/img78/1605/12zmwpwatvc2.jpg) , Southern Plains (http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/1342/12zsppwatrr1.jpg)

12z Surface winds: Midwest (http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/3879/12zmwwfl2.jpg) , Southern Plains (http://img224.imageshack.us/img224/4908/12zspwtn7.jpg)


12z Soundings: (in alphabetical order)

Amarillo, TX (http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/503/12zsndgamawf6.jpg)
Dallas, TX (http://img166.imageshack.us/img166/9761/12zsndgfwdry5.jpg)
Davenport, IA (http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/35/12zsndgdvnlc4.jpg)
Dodge City, KS (http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/8454/12zsndgddcug3.jpg)
Midland, TX (http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/1238/12zsndgmafco9.jpg)
North Platte, NE (http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/9646/12zsndglbfev5.jpg)
Oklahoma City, OK (http://img113.imageshack.us/img113/6071/12zsndgounvy4.jpg)
Omaha, NE (http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/9191/12zsndgoaxkw7.jpg)
Topeka, KS (http://img224.imageshack.us/img224/3410/12zsndgtopal4.jpg)

[Sam Kennedy]

Okay I don't really know that much about forecasting, but the low and upper level jets are over South Dakota, and there is also Directional and speed shear there, so I would try and Position myself in Eastern SD, but something is telling me everything is going to pop further south, so I may edit this if I decide on a better target.

[EDIT] Even though the Texas/Oklahoma area looks promising, there is no speed shear, and too much directional shear, so I wouldn't want to be there, I will stick with SD and look like an idiot instead lol :D

[Sam Stone]

I'm thinking west central Kansas, possibly a little farther South.

Edit: I'm thinking more south and east now, more south central Kansas area.

Sam

[Danny Neal]

I think I would sit on I 35 at the KS/OK border. Seems like a triple point setting up in NE CO. Since it is on 12Z I have plenty of time to re-adjust to W KS or SW OK if I felt conditions warranted.

Wellington, Kansas - for now maybe casually drift west on US 160. Probably end up in Attica, Kansas

EDIT: After taking a quick look this morning when I woke up, for some unknown reason I am infatuated with the Triple Point and warm front. So I took a 4 hour drive up to Ness City, KS so I can position myself at the best of both worlds.

12Z - 16Z on the road to Ness City.

[Skip Talbot]

I think I might play south of the triple point along the dryline in western KS. Already some CAPE in OK but there is a hell of a cap and weak shear. I'm gonna hope we get a little moisture advection in points north and the boundaries don't shift too much during the day so I'm out of position. Near Dodge City for now I'd say.

[Bob Hartig]

Thanks for tackling this, Chad. It's a great way to spend the winter days.

I think I'm going to set up shop for the time being at westbound rest area M329, 35 miles west of Topeka. Surface winds are backed and I think they'll continue to stay that way in this area as the system moves east, bringing with it strengthening upper-level winds. I've got a moisture tongue advecting from the south, and the triple point between the dryline and the stationary front at the NE border is in the neighborhood and heading my way. CAPE should build with insolation and increasing moisture.

Edit: Just noticed that I need to pick an actual city in order to get shown on the map. Put me at McFarland, KS. But I'm really at the I-70 rest stop, ready to head west (and/or N/S) if and when I need to.

[Brett Roberts]

With the 500 mb trough axis all the way back in CA/NV, I'm thinking west of I-35 for sure. I think I'll start out in Medicine Lodge, hedging my bets between the triple-point in NW KS (with the most backed surface winds) and the dryline in W OK (where good low-level moisture already resides).

[Robert Edmonds]

I think I'll be sitting at Oberlin, KS. I don't like the lower dew points further north... but further south I don't like the winds. I might jump further south if I am a bone head, but I for now I think this is where I'd be sitting. The only thing is I don't remember much wifi in the town, that get's a bit annoying when you don't use an aircard.

[John Gnuechtel]

I would probably start near Salina, Kansas, and then make adjustments north or south in hopes of playing the triple point as it translates east.

[Charles Kuster]

I will start in Great Bend, KS and be ready to move north or south depending on what I see in the 18Z data.

[Scott Taylor]

Good stuff Chad... let's see, based on those current obs, without seeing any forecast maps beyond 12z, I'd plan on getting to Wichita, KS first as a starting point (not necessarily a target yet), wait for more data and go from there.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'd start by heading west towards Salina since the system is still out west and the triple point will likely move east. I will wait for the 18z data before heading south or north.

[Adam Lucio]

I would head to Coldwater, KS. CAPE is whats keeping me to a more southern target right now. Decent road options in the area for me to make adjustments and Im not too far off from the dryline.

I think once I have to adjust I will be heading east.

[Joel Wright]

I'll be starting out at Clinton Oklahoma.

[Nathan Edwards]

I'm going to start in Northern Kansas. Probably Hill City area. I'll be playing the dry line and keeping an eye out for any boundaries to latch onto. I'm not too great when it comes to choosing a start location from 1 set of data. I'm really going to appreciate a second data set later on so I see how things progress!

[Shane Adams]

I'm gonna hold up in Norman for a while. The obvious bullseye attm is NW Kansas and along the KS/NE border...but I'm interested in the area from Lawton_Childress_Abilene_Wichita Falls. I'm going to sit on my hands a bit, take the gamble (because I'll need to leave before too long to make the northern target), and see what the SW OK/NW TX area has to offer by 18z.

[Brandon Sullivan]

Hmm....

Pack the camera and computer!

I will start in Oakley, KS!

PS Thanks For Doing this Chad!

[Darin Brunin]

I think I'll start my day in Holdredge, NE.

[Andrew Revering]

Being from Minneapolis, I'm surprised I'm leaning towards the dryline in Texas. You tend to be biased towards your part of the country but here are my thoughts:

- The low should move into Nebraska perhaps setting up shop near the SD border near Yankton, SD... the problems here are limited moisture and instability.
- There are some warm 850 temps in Kansas. Those should warm and advect to the NE, which makes me feel like anything north of Kansas is going to be bust.
- Winds are not good south of there, but with the trough moving in, I'd expect these to increase, especially if the low to the north tries to strengthen, as it should. Moisture, instability look great along the dryline.
- My biggest concern with Nebraska/SD is that the 850 dews are really bad, and I'm not sure that with some dry air advecting in, if convergence alone will help to sustain enough moisture depth in this area.

I think with that I'd like to camp out in Childress,TX or Frederick, OK and keep my eyes peeled for anything within about 200 miles in Western Oklahoma or North/Northwest Texas along the dryline.

I don't want to get too far south though because those winds are going to kill me.

[Chris Lott]

I think I'm going to start in Oklahoma. I'm liking the surface winds better, although they aren't as strong as I would like. Also CAPE seems to be descent. If anything fires to the west I can head in that direction. I'm starting in Ponca City.

Edit: I'm really liking the dryline setting up in W. Ok. If something can fire off the dryline and make it's way into the juice I should be in position.

[Sam Kennedy]

Uhoh, I'm going to be the only person in SD, anyone wanting to keep me company? :p

[Scott Weberpal]

Uhoh, I'm going to be the only person in SD, anyone wanting to keep me company? :p

There's no moisture up there.

[Josh Richardson]

Im going to start off in Wichita with a final target to come later on with the 18z data, probably leaning towards flying down south quickly.

[scott r currens]

I agree with Shane and Andrew; I'm headed to Childress, TX for an 18z data stop.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I noticed alot of people are heading pretty far west. I'd be cautious because this data is at 12z, it is not at 12z for 0z or something. The storm system is well west of the region. 12z is only 6am remember. I mean I know this is for fun, but it may be helpful because that isn't really mentioned (not Chad's fault).

[Scott Weberpal]

I noticed alot of people are heading pretty far west. I'd be cautious because this data is at 12z, it is not at 12z for 0z or something. The storm system is well west of the region. 12z is only 6am remember. I mean I know this is for fun, but it may be helpful because that isn't really mentioned (not Chad's fault).

The trof axis is still well to the west in the intermountain region, so the way the surface looks now might be indicitive of how it looks 12 hours later...the features likely won't move east much. The approaching trof should back the surface winds on the high plains. The only thing that's throwing me right now is the wacky 850 flow. I'm leaning toward the Texas Panhandle at this point, but not completely confident with that pick. I'll likely start in Guymon, OK and blast north or south after the 18z data gives me a better idea of where to go. Seems like most events with the trof axis sitting this far west are upslope and/or high plains events.

And 12z is 7am, not 6am ;)

[JWallentine]

Being that i'm already in ICT, i'll probably hang here till the 18z analysis comes out. I'm going to have the mindset that i'll head north and west once the update comes out.

[Chris Lott]

The trof axis is still well to the west in the intermountain region, so the way the surface looks now might be indicitive of how it looks 12 hours later...the features likely won't move east much. The approaching trof should back the surface winds on the high plains. The only thing that's throwing me right now is the wacky 850 flow. I'm leaning toward the Texas Panhandle at this point, but not completely confident with that pick. I'll likely start in Guymon, OK and blast north or south after the 18z data gives me a better idea of where to go.

And 12z is 7am, not 6am ;)

12z IS 6am, if you're on Central time. It corresponds to the timezone you are in.

[Scott Weberpal]

12z IS 6am, if you're on Central time. It corresponds to the timezone you are in.

Yes, it is right now, but not during chase season. 12z is 7am starting at Daylight Saving Time in the Central Time Zone.

[Andrew Revering]

12z IS 6am, if you're on Central time. It corresponds to the timezone you are in.

Not if we're assuming this is 'chase season'. You're correct, this time of year (winter) 6am = 12z; but in spring and summer 7am = 12z.

[Verne Carlson]

okay I'm going to project the surface features and 500 mb winds through the day an say Kearney, NE for an initial target. Normally on the morning of I'd be checking the RUC for 18 - 0z projections but I'll do this by mental note to move things about a 1/2 state east from the morning.

[Chris Lott]

Not if we're assuming this is 'chase season'. You're correct, this time of year (winter) 6am = 12z; but in spring and summer 7am = 12z.

You guys are both correct. I was stuck in the current "winter" scenario, not even thinking about daylight savings time. Anyway, I'm ready for the 18Z update, still holding tight in Ponca City.

[Tim Segraves]

I'm going to start out in Phillipsburg, KS this early. I like the way southern NE is looking but don't want to commit this early since there is almost no CAPE so I'm taking a slightly more southerly position for now. I hope to see some more moisture and instability move up here in the next update.

[John Farley]

Since the data are for early morning (not a forecast of later), the instability is well to the east or southeast, and shear will be localized along the warm front, I'm going for the more eastern target, probably in NE Kansas. Less of a drive for me, too. So I will start out in Lawrence, KS.

[Dick McGowan]

Just analyzing the 12z maps, there seems to be dry air contaminating Kansas/Nebraska regions at 850 out of the SW...with a warm temp at 24 C, definitely a temperature advection going on, which may cap the warm front later in the day (or they may never be able to become surface based). I see rich, deep BL moisture heading up from Mexico, out of the straight South at 850 as well, with a rich, 16 dewpoint crossing the border. It should make it up to W. Texas and into the panhandles by 0z, so I'll start out in San Angelo, Texas and hope the dryline really starts to punch through by 21-22z to my west. Near El Paso, it's 63/16 with sfc winds at 15 knots from the W/SW...I like my spot for now and will be eager to see the 18z data...as I am ready to head north OR south if needed. I think the mid and upper level support should continue to increase throughout the day as the system out on the West Coast digs further south (I hope!).

[Brian Stertz]

I am going to start out in Hastings NE on the warm front and edge of the cap. Dryline looks tempting but am leary of the likelihood that LCL's may be pretty high. Some good moisture pooling is likely to occur on the boundary along the I-80 corridor. I would expect winds to steadily back at 850mb by later in the day. Should have a triple point nearby by late afternoon/evening and some pretty good directional shear. I'll set up camp and wait for more data and hopefully a good RUC panel.

[Dennis Sherrod]

Well, I am not 100% satisfied with my decision yet, but I will start off initially in Emporia, KS.

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm going to start the day in McCook, NE

[David Wolfson]

The low up near Julesburg and the front north of the KS/NE border is hard to resist, but... the upper pattern seems to be fixing to eject PVA off the mountains into the Clayton-Boise City-Springfield area. There's streamwise divergence according to my eyes with almost a split flow trying to develop at the higher levels. I think afternoon will find the Julesburg low dropping south to extreme southwest KS with some frontal development on something like a Syracuse - Wichita line. The DDC sounding isn't much, but the deeper moisture and temps should look pretty good south and east from there by evening.

So I'm starting out in... Coldwater, KS.

[Simon Brewer]

Hardcore cold air advection at 700mb over Southern Cal makes me think that mid-level closed-low will dig a little more throughout the day and not reach the plains, so I'm thinking there will be no height falls or maybe even height rises south of I-70 at 500mb as that ridge builds a little more in advance of the slow-moving mid-level closed-low. The trough propagating across Manitoba should reinforce the cold/cool air north of the warm front/stationary over southern Nebraska. Lee troughing over the High Central Plains and low-level pressure falls over, most likely, Colorado in advance of the slow moving mid-level closed-low should continue the moisture feed into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska...

Basically, I think it looks best to play the stationary boundary/warm front in southern Nebraska at the intersection of the dryline.. question is: how far east does the dryline mix? I'm gonna sit in Hastings, NE and wait for more data...

Simon

[Dennis Dennison]

I am going to sit in Alliance, Nebraska. My gut says something is possible in South Dakota too, but my confidence is only 50/50. I think this position will allow me to move quickly as I get more reports.
So Sam, I am with you to an extent.

[Bob Hartig]

Just analyzing the 12z maps, there seems to be dry air contaminating Kansas/Nebraska regions at 850 out of the SW...

Dick, where are you getting this from? I haven't been able to make out dews on this 850 chart. No problems with the Weather Graphics charts, but I'm having a tough time with this one.

I still have a hunch that moisture won't be problem around NE/NC Kansas. My personal tendency has been to underestimate just how far north deep moisture will reach between 12z and firing time. Looking forward to the 18z run to find out whether I guessed right or bombed.

[Chris Frost]

Well, I'm probably gonna get on I-70 west out of Lawrence for HILL CITY. My thinking is play the dryline close to the low, however, it's still early in the the day for an adjustment

That dryline bulge along the Red River is interesting but the winds aren't as good

[Darren Addy]

I'm posting this before reading any of the comments (as an exercise) because this is something I really need to get much better at and hopefully these exercises and the surrounding discussion will help.

I'm trying to think of where this set up will be 8 hours from now and thinking that the low (and associated dryline) should be sliding east. I don't want to be west of the dryline and I want to be south of the cold front. I think I'd select Russell, KS on I70 as my starting point and hope that the decent road options from there would put me in striking distance of the action as further data comes in.

[Dick McGowan]

Dick, where are you getting this from? I haven't been able to make out dews on this 850 chart. No problems with the Weather Graphics charts, but I'm having a tough time with this one.

I still have a hunch that moisture won't be problem around NE/NC Kansas. My personal tendency has been to underestimate just how far north deep moisture will reach between 12z and firing time. Looking forward to the 18z run to find out whether I guessed right or bombed.

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/42/12z850ww3.gif The red is temperature and the green are dewpoints. You can see the deeper moisture's contour lines on the US/Mexico border down there pushing northward. It's still 12z and I never wake up this early anyways to analyze anyways :D ! But at 7 a.m. and 24 degrees C at 850 mb in SW KS, the air there is most likely capped just above the surface...and it looks like it's advecting northward with the front. The 850 mb dewpoints are shallow right now up in KS....and I'm not a huge fan of SW 850's, but that's not to say things won't change by 18z. I'm most likely heading north at 18z into the Texas Panhandle...

[Paul Austin]

I'll set up shop near Kinsley, KS with several road options for adjustments to whatever the dry line and moisture axis do during the morning/early afternoon. A bit more CAPE further south, but the upper air support is further north. Like an idiot, I'll probably end up where neither exists.

Looking at the soundings: SW & SC Kansas appears to be strongly capped attm. I'm hoping the "juice" further south advects northward toward my target, but I'll probably get impatient and race S toward the higher CAPE and dryline bulge or N toward the boudary/low intersection with better backing and upper air dynamics, especially if I see clear blue skies by afternoon with promising convection N or S of my position. That's when I likely miss the big show near my initial target. I'm really good at bailing out of good target areas :o Hoping for a clearer picture with the 18z update.

[Bob Hartig]

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/42/12z850ww3.gif The red is temperature and the green are dewpoints. You can see the deeper moisture's contour lines on the US/Mexico border down there pushing northward. It's still 12z and I never wake up this early anyways to analyze anyways :D ! But at 7 a.m. and 24 degrees C at 850 mb in SW KS, the air there is most likely capped just above the surface...and it looks like it's advecting northward with the front.

Okay, I can see it now...provided I squint real hard. (Am I the only one who has trouble tacking numbers to isopleths on some of these charts?) Thanks for explaining! And I follow your reasoning re the warm advection at 850. The 700s don't look bad, though, at 9 C in W KS and with cooler air moving in by the afternoon (crossing fingers here!) as the low translates east. Still sticking to my bid for east of the triple point, though I suspect the 18z run will have me busting west a bit. Good chasing to you out there in the Panhandle. :)

[Connor McCrorey]

I think I'll start off in Blackwell, OK :)

[Chad Cowan]

Interesting selections so far, we're all over the place! Sam, I'll give you a hint... stay south of Canada and north of Mexico. I'm updating the map now with everyone's locations. It can be seen here: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/54011

I will release the 18z data at 4pm CST tomorrow, so get your targets in before then.

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm heading toward Red Cloud,Ne: I think Dick is right about his concern over the really high warm air advection at 850mb, even tough I think that some nicely moist air and some nice convergence in the low level can help the convection around late evening, along the triple point.

[Shane Adams]

I will release the 18z data at 4pm CST tomorrow, so get your targets in before then.

Actually, I'm waiting for the 18z update so I can choose a target ;)

[Brian Emfinger]

I would head west to Clinton, OK...hopefully getting there by 10-11am so I would have a chance to go farther north if I needed.

[JF Massicotte]

I'll start my day in Hays, Ks, redy to move up north when 18z is out...

[Tony Perkins]

12Z Data:
I'm going to start my day north and begin from Hays, KS

[Tom Dulong]

Based on the 12Z data, I have already decided to play a southerly target today. Currently heading southwest from OKC toward ABI, which I should reach by late afternoon. From there, I shall wait for scattered deep convection to develop in the warm sector east of the dry line.

[Matthew Harding]

I think that enough moisture will advect north into KS that the triple point will be in play. Based on road options and where I believe the triple point will be, I will start in Great Bend, KS and wait for the 18z data.

[Chris C Sanner]

There are some extremely warm 850 temps sitting out there right now getting ready to advect in the near dryline environment in Western Oklahoma. I'm thinking that the cap bust potential is rather high along the dryline. With that said, I guess I'm pulling out of Norman early this morning and driving up to Russell, KS with the anticipation I'll probably be readjusting N and E to stay ahead of the triple point and hoping for the best.

Target: Russell, KS

[Chris Allington]

Based on the 12z data... I do not necissarily like the Southern Target, but I do like the potential triple point that should set up somewhere in the North central KS or South central NE.

Prelim Target: Hastings, NE. I like the road options in the area as I can get South into KS in a hurry, or jump E or W on I-80. A short hour and 45 minuet drive for me and I'm visiting a couple college friends or in a hotel parking lot with wifi.

[Adam Lucio]

The northern area sure looks like a cold core set up in my opinion. We have a vigorous occlusion going on over ND and surface low development probably taking place through the day across northeast SD into southeast ND ~200 miles southeast of the 500 mb center that seems to be hinted at from the 00Z pressure graphic. The coldest 500 mb temps are in MN to the western Dakotas as well as the higher 850 mb dewpoints...also some 0-3km CAPE in this area as well. I'd be targeting somewhere southeast of Fargo, ND at this point, likely around the Fergus Falls, MN area for a northern target.

The southern target is a bit tricky but with a surface low in the OK Panhandle in the morning but hard to judge where the surface low would be by 00Z. Looking at some major moisture transport northward with 50 kts analyzed at 925 mb in OKC. Also a dryline setting up from western OK into western TX. I'd probably want to target the northern end of the dryline across western OK...maybe near the Hinton, OK area west of OKC.

Interesting case!

Hey Brad I think you meant this for chase case #3 maybe? Or maybe Im missing something huge here :p

Anyways, Im still chillin in coldwater, waiting for the updates, only a few hours away. Time to steal a power nap.

[Scott Weberpal]

The northern area sure looks like a cold core set up in my opinion. We have a vigorous occlusion going on over ND and surface low development probably taking place through the day across northeast SD into southeast ND ~200 miles southeast of the 500 mb center that seems to be hinted at from the 00Z pressure graphic. The coldest 500 mb temps are in MN to the western Dakotas as well as the higher 850 mb dewpoints...also some 0-3km CAPE in this area as well. I'd be targeting somewhere southeast of Fargo, ND at this point, likely around the Fergus Falls, MN area for a northern target.

The southern target is a bit tricky but with a surface low in the OK Panhandle in the morning but hard to judge where the surface low would be by 00Z. Looking at some major moisture transport northward with 50 kts analyzed at 925 mb in OKC. Also a dryline setting up from western OK into western TX. I'd probably want to target the northern end of the dryline across western OK...maybe near the Hinton, OK area west of OKC.

Interesting case!

I think you were looking at chase case 3 and posted here...

There are no 00z forecast maps with this case, and the dakotas have northerly surface winds and there's no sfc low in Oklahoma with this one ;)

[Danny Neal]

EDIT: After taking a quick look this morning when I woke up, for some unknown reason I am infatuated with the Triple Point and warm front/dryline intersection. So I took a 4 hour drive up to Ness City, KS so I can position myself at the best of both worlds.

12Z - 16Z on the road to Ness City.

From my earlier post..... May have been lost in the shuffle so just updating...

[Jason Foster]

OK, if we're going to role-play this:
7am CDT
Yawn....waking up early attm....after listening to my chase partner snore all night and not having had my coffee yet, but just thinking I like the triple point might be the place to be at first glance, but I love chasing dryline stuff in Texas. I'll likely pick a preliminary spot somewhere along the KS/OK border east of the dryline to start.

8am CDT OK, I've had my coffee looked at the data, and now I'm thinking my first stop region will be Alva, OK. I like to chase starting with a southern preference, and I'm thinking that the Kansas triple point area will have the most activity that is of the supercell style I like to chase, and Alva only puts me 4 hours outside of Russell, KS (according to DeLorme). However, I'm also favoring this location because I'm love to chase isolated supercells in the Texas panhandle....and if that option presents itself, I can go for that.....since DeLorme tells me it is 5.25 hours to Childress...and I know I can make it faster than that.

For this role play, I'll be in Alva by 1pm just about the time the 18z is coming out.

[Brad Nelson]

Hey Brad I think you meant this for chase case #3 maybe? Or maybe Im missing something huge here :p

Anyways, Im still chillin in coldwater, waiting for the updates, only a few hours away. Time to steal a power nap.

You are correct sir! I deleted it out of here and re-posted in Case Study #3. Still getting used to Stormtrack :D

[Patrick Martin]

I like triple point currently in NE CO and I think as the system back to the west deepens, that moisture return and flow in the west/central KS will improve. I am thinking also, as others have mentioned, the dryline/triple point will not progress east terribly fast.

It's 7am MDT (13z - assuming we are in DST already) and I am leaving the house and heading out on I-70 with an initial target of Hays KS. I should arrive in time to grab lunch, have a look at the 18z data, and adjust position as needed.

[Michael P. Morris]

I will target Emporia, Kansas, based on its proximity to the occluded/soon-to-be warm front, and the fact that the dryline will probably advance eastward pretty quickly today due to rather shallow moisture west of I-35. Plus, I am just on the edge of the strong mid-level baroclinic zone and expect significant warm advection to deepen the low center and assist in breaking what appears to be a decent cap (23C at 850 at DDC).

[Shelli Valdivia]

This is my first time trying to read surface charts. I am going to put myself in medicine lodge and see what happens...

[Sam Kennedy]

I've looked over the charts again and Dallas TX looks like a better place to be chasing, so I am Paying $400 and for a flight from Sioux Falls to Dallas TX, it will take 4:30 hours. I will also have to rent a car for when I get to Texas. So in 4.5 hours I will be in Dallas, TX

[Jeff Duda]

I'll be going to Red Cloud, NE to see if anything along the warm front or advancing triple point blows anything up. In my opinion, not much can happen north of the warm front to the north of central Nebraska, and shear is too crappy out west. I don't like the warm bubble at 850 over KS, though. However, out in central Kansas, 850 isn't THAT high above the surface, so maybe that will mix down to the surface and erode the cap.

[Chad Cowan]

18z UPDATE

http://img161.imageshack.us/img161/1563/18zmwsfcof2.jpg

http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/244/18zspsfcbk5.jpg

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/9660/18zradaruy9.jpg

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/1536/18zvisaq0.jpg

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/504/18zirlm6.jpg

18z 300mb:
http://img123.imageshack.us/img123/2278/18z300wm0.jpg

18z 500mb:
http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/5272/18z500bw4.jpg

18z 700mb:
http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/5504/18z700ej4.jpg

18z 850mb:
http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/2408/18z850oe6.jpg

18z MLCAPE:
http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/6369/18zmlcapelk4.jpg

18z Effective Shear:
http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/4428/18zeffshearfc4.jpg

18z 0-3km shear:
http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/4446/18z3kmshearyd9.jpg



1630z SPC Convective Outlook: (edited to remove locations)
http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/674/18zday1spoz2.jpg

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/7225/18zday1mwqm8.jpg

[Josh Richardson]

Im now hauling butt way back north again, would like to shoot for a Grand Island to Lincoln to Beatrice area so we'll go with Fairmont NE.

[Danny Neal]

Well it is 18Z and am sitting right on the dryline in Ness City. SPC outlook mentions 21Z-00Z rapid severe development. I am thinking about heading up to north of I-70 and perhaps east a bit too. It would take an hour and fifty minutes to hit Stockton KS and another hour to hit Belleville, Kansas. Close enough to the triple point and should be there by 21Z in time for I hope explosive development. I can see a broken line of supercells initiating along the warm front/dryline in E NE and trailing down to the I 70 area in Kansas.

Belleville, Kansas by 21Z

[Tom Dulong]

Guess I committed to the southern target (srn hi plains) too early. I am now way out of position to reach the "sweet spot" in eastern Nebraska. Oh well,
perhaps I can get a nice shot of an isolated LP near the dry line in west TX before dark.

[John Farley]

Sitting in Lawrence, KS, I realize I am either too far east or too far south. But which one? Based on the much better directional shear along the warm front, among other factors, I am now blasting north toward my new target of NEBRASKA CITY, NE. It would be easier to go west to central KS along I-70, and there certainly is potential there, but I think with the good shear along the WF, somewhere in central to SE Nebraska will be the place to be.

Mapquest says this is about a 2.5 hour drive, so I should be in OK position to catch some daytime storms, if the warm front doesn't move north too fast.

[Sam Kennedy]

I'm still sticking with my decision for Dallas TX, I would be about half way there already.

[Verne Carlson]

Not moving from my initial target of Kearney, NE - I like the shear along the WF, ample CAPE and ongoing insolation.

[Patrick Martin]

Aargh, pretty certain I am to far south and west. The triple point appears to be riding the KS/NE border and should continue to pull up better moisture so I'm hoping for a play along the hwy 81 corridor between Grand Island and Concordia.

I am on the move north and then east working to reach hwy 81 in Hebron NE by 4pm CT.

Edit: On second thought, I still believe I am to far south, but don't want to panic to far east just yet. The triple point is moving east, there appears to be a dry punch coming north out of SW KS, and dews should continue to rise in the area to my east and in the area closer to the WF. I'm still moving north, as I can be in Red Cloud NE in 2hrs (3pm CT) which will give me plenty of options to continue up 281 towards Hasting & Grand Island or east on 136 towards Hebron.

New Target: Red Cloud NE

[Charles Kuster]

I am now racing north from Great Bend and am heading for Grand Island, Nebraska.

[Dick McGowan]

Hey Chad, can you add either 250 or 300 mb (since you had it on the first one)?

[Scott Weberpal]

AHH...I need to blast north fast. In Guymon, OK can make Grand Island, NE by 00z averaging 71 mph, and have an hour and a half or so of sunlight left (assuming this is mid-spring). Hoping the 430 mile trek from Guymon at 18z to Grand Island at 00z is worth it, but I have no doubt in my mind at this point the northern target is the place to be as the sfc obs along the southern high plains are hot and mixing hasn't even fully commenced yet.

I'm a little worried about the cap further north, but looks breakable along the front by 00z. However, this could play in my favor if storms hold off until late evening.

[Skip Talbot]

Woah, the dryline blew past me pretty quick while I was in western KS. I'm blasting northeast up 56 to 81 north into Nebraska! Good shear along that warm front!

[Adam Lucio]

Given my location Im now blasting north on 183 to Phillipsburg where I should arrive around 21Z. From there Im thinking Im going to have to head east on 36....

I will stop in phillipsburg to check up on the 21z update and live conditions and base my move from there, to see If I should head north and hope the TP lights up, or If I want to go east and play the warm front.

Im hoping the cap can hold just a bit longer than progged.

[Nathan Edwards]

I think I'm in a good position in Hill City. I think I'm right on the dry line (*squints at the maps*) and I'll follow this north east if it overtakes me. I'm tempted to make the move North East now into Southern central Nebraska as it would be easier to drop down onto anything that forms south of here but in reality, staying in one place and concentrating on the data rather than driving around seems like a better option right now.

[Darin Brunin]

Damn...I guess there are no places to grab a meal in Holdrege. I will make the 20 minute trek to Elm Creek, get some grub, and hang out along I-80.

[Chad Cowan]

Hey Chad, can you add either 250 or 300 mb (since you had it on the first one)?

Done.

I'm going to be adding two MD's tomorrow morning and then the 0z update either tomorrow night or Sunday.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Well after shortly after we got into Salina we checked the 18z data and we are now heading north to Kearney should be there around 20-21z with sometime to micro adjust.

[Brian Emfinger]

I will head north to Alva, OK for now but likely would head farther north later.

[David Wolfson]

Things just don't seem to be coming together in southern KS. Likewise at 18Z I bowed to ground truth and am heading north on US 183, passing through Hays at about 20Z, Phillipsburg at 21Z with muti-purpose stop, and Elm Creek about 22:30Z, if the 21Z data doesn't change the plan. For plotting purposes I'll call the 00Z target as Wood River, NE, just southwest of Grand Island.

[Matthew Harding]

I will be making the trek from Great Bend, KS to Belleville, KS to check data and make any subsequent changes from there.

[Bob Hartig]

I'm on my way to York, NE. Probably don't need to go into detail, and that's good, because I'm not in the mood. Let's put it this way: the maps for Chase Case #3 don't work for Chase Case #2, and vice versa. You definitely don't want to confuse the two.

[Michael P. Morris]

I'm going to move a little further north to Manhattan and make another data stop, perhaps continuing on to Beatrice to keep up with the lifting warm front. I'm looking for any cell that can ride right along that boundary, and the modeled storm motions look to favor that sort of scenario.

[Jeff Duda]

I'm slowly moving north from Red Cloud towards Columbus, NE.

[scott r currens]

I'm making the 4-hour drive from Childress, TX to Dodge City, KS.

Target: Dodge City, KS at 22z

[Andrew Revering]

I'm not terribly concerned with my position in Childress. Things look decent to the north, obviously in south-central Nebraska, but I still have concerns over limited moisture and instability to work with. A handful of storms may cluster along the triple point and ride the warm front. If one or two can stay descreet, they could tap into the moisture and instability and with the amount of shear go gangbusters... BUT... I'm down in Childress, so I play the hand I'm dealt.

I think I'm pretty happy with where I'm at actually. Visible satellite shows a hint of some CU building in the panhandle of TX, and Infrared supports that with some very cold cloud tops there. The dryline/cold front is VERY sharp with a ton of instability and moisture on the warm sector side. I'm going to reposition 75 miles to Wheeler, TX on the east-central Texas Panhandle and watch things from there. I should be there by 2-230pm.

[Chris Allington]

Headed North East from Hastings, NE just to keep ahead of things even though where I am I should be able to jump on anything in the I-80 corridor within about 45 minuets. Moving to Central City, NE to stay on the WF.

[Joel Wright]

I'm staying right where I am in Clinton Oklahoma.

[Scott Taylor]

I'm going to sit tight in ICT for a while longer... I still like the combination of moisture, shear, instability and the approaching boundary from the west.

[Dennis Sherrod]

I think I will take a leisure drive northward from Emporia toward the NE. line. Mainly because I have a habit of picking slightly too far south on the original plotting. It is only about 100 miles, so I am in no rush yet.

[Chris C Sanner]

Going to move even further north from Russel to Smith Center, might go east and north up to Red Cloud depending on what we see out there as far as development. Wanting to play just S and E of the Triple Point.....

[Shane Adams]

Ok, got about what I expected from the 18z update.....so I'm haulin' butt southwest to Paducah, TX.

[Robert Edmonds]

Taking the short drive from Oberlin to Phillipsburg, KS...

[Chris Frost]

Well based of the 18z data...

I think my initial target of Hill City is just a little too far west. So with that said I'm gonna trot back east and go for Concordia Kansas. I see cooler 850mb temps (not much) , better mean layer CAPE, and winds at the surface there are out of the SE so there is a little bit better turning with height there.

Now if I could just find a gas station bathroom that didn't smell so bad I'll be on my way to Concordia where I should make it by 20z. Nope no luck...guess I'll find dirt road on the way. :)

[Danny Neal]

Still on my way to Belleville, Kansas. More or less on the NE border. I still have a sneaking suspicion that NC KS might get into some fun so I really don't want to totally commit to the North in NE..... So by 21Z I will be hanging around Belleville, Kansas. Hopefully seeing the towers on the dryline go up to the western horizon

[Tim Segraves]

I'm pretty happy with my initial decision of Phillipsburg so I'll stick around until the next update. I still think extreme southern NE is looking best (maybe around Alma, NE) but I'll wait for the next update before heading north.

[Chris Lott]

I'm thinking a better chance for supercells will develop north of my location in Ponca City, so I'm shooting over to I-35 and heading to McPherson,KS which is about 2 hr. 20 min. away.

[Shelli Valdivia]

Lets see..since I am in Medicine Lodge, KS I am going to head North up 281 to Red Cloud, NE and head east on 136 to Hebron and wait for the next update. I think I am going to target south eastern NE.

[Dennis Dennison]

I've looked over the charts again and Dallas TX looks like a better place to be chasing, so I am Paying $400 and for a flight from Sioux Falls to Dallas TX, it will take 4:30 hours. I will also have to rent a car for when I get to Texas. So in 4.5 hours I will be in Dallas, TX


You moved?? CHICKEN!!!


I will be in Grand Island in 5 hours, I still think there will be storms where I am at now, but better chances where I am heading to

[John Gnuechtel]

Leaving Salina, KS. Funk, NE seems like a good direction to head, but not in a big hurry. This whole area seems pretty close, so I'd spend more time monitoring satellite for CU fields denoting the dry line...and try to stay about 20 miles east of it.

[Darren Addy]

I'm moving from Russell, KS to Belleville, KS. (East on I70 to Salina and then north on 81). Keeping my head on a swivel in case there is initiation before I can get there.

[Tony Perkins]

There is not much convergence coming my way with my 12z start in Hays, so at 18z I'm heading north from Hayes up towards Holdrege and I-80 along the warm front.

[Mark Farnik]

Currently sitting in Smith Center, KS at 20Z and patiently biding my time as I await the next update. My thinking is that south central and southeastern NE is going to be the sweet spot today in/of the vicinity of the warm front, where shear is maximized and surface winds are most strongly backed.
I strongly suspect that once the 00z data comes in, I will be adjusting north into Nebraska towards the I-80 corridor on Highway 281 in order to get closer to the warm front, but I don't want to get suckered too far north, in case something fires further south ahead of the advancing TP.

[Dick McGowan]

EDIT: Maybe it's not...I'll stay put for now and maybe drift a bit northward to Throckmorton, TX.

I am pretty sure I remember this day now and even saw several tornadoes on it. Funny how one map on here I remembered from this day, one isobar sparked the day.

[Corey Sloan]

TARGET: Belleville, KS--Waiting on latest data and Vis Sat for CU fields--Tending to lean slightly south at this point

EDIT: Ok, found the 18Z data and am comfortable now between Belleville, KS and Hebron, NE...good road structure and not a bad spot to wait on more data

[Brian Stertz]

Am going to stay put in Hastings NE ....things could be very good if we can get a nice supercell move east and ride the boundary. Deep layer shear looks very good and nice veering wind profiles all across C. Nebraska. I like the chances here or very close to here.

[Brett Roberts]

Glad I chose to hedge my bets instead of biting on my gut reaction of SW OK! From Medicine Lodge, I'll be flying NNE towards Concordia, hoping to arrive by 22z. Moisture return from 12z to 18z was quite impressive in this area, while the 18z LCL's down south are quite off-putting (and should only get worse with further afternoon heating).

[Matthew Harding]

I like where I am at, so I think I am going to hold tight here in Belleville, KS.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Getting in late, so looking at the 18Z...

Beatrice to Hebron to York looks good. Any further west and that early morning cloud cover might not have burned off early enough. I'm liking the surface winds at Fremont, Columbus and Lincoln, and those are some sexy T/TD spreads.

[Doug Mitchell]

I'll move east to Alma, NE.

[Paul Austin]

I'm a little nervous about ditching my initial target attm, though the more obvious area is along the warm front as I originally figured it would be. I'm going to hang tight here at Kinsley, KS for a couple hours watching sat images, the sky, and the dryline progression before adjusting. The strength of the inversion should buy me at least a couple hours and still give me enough time to race 3+ hours north or a couple hours south before dark. Gotta love DST.

[JWallentine]

Alright, after hangin out in Wichita for lunch and to see the 18z update, i'm going to bite on the higher shear and tongue of instability wrapping up into SC NE. So, i'll head due north to Hebron, NE and wait there for initiation if it doesn't already start before I get there. Mapquest is telling me it takes 3hrs to get to Hebron so i'll be there around 21-22z just in time for the show hopefully.

[Andrea Griffa]

I think I'll stay put here in Red Cloud,Ne and see what happen, because I think the low is gonna moving in this direction and because I have a not bad road option.

[Chad Cowan]

21z Update

http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/9448/21zvissatqo6.jpg

http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/9369/21zmwradargn8.jpg

http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/8530/21zspradarsb8.jpg

http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/2381/21zmwsfcgd3.jpg

http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/2640/21zspsfcwp8.jpg

http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/5792/21zcapebz9.jpg

http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/7594/21zeffshearzp9.jpg

http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/2442/21z300mbco4.jpghttp://img127.imageshack.us/img127/3614/21z500mbpm7.jpg
http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/6929/21z700mbfc4.jpg http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/1553/21z850mbbv8.jpg



http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/2427/21zspmdmn3.jpg



http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/6589/21zmwmdba4.jpg

[Joel Wright]

After seeing the 21z update I'll be departing Clinton Oklahoma and head west to Erick Oklahoma. New convection looks to be firing in the eastern TX panhandle.

[Danny Neal]

I am in Belleville it is 21Z, based on the new out look I am heading to Geneva, NE. It is 50 miles away, so I can make it there by 22Z. I see an agitated mass of Cu in N KS so the dryline maybe ready to go. No watch out yet, but I expect one shortly.

[Robert Edmonds]

I'm still sitting tight in Phillipsburg... I think a watch box is still coming to the area.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

We were just west of Hastings and it appears the dryline has just pasted Kearney a bit so we will head back to Hastings and wait there. We can see some cu to our S closer to the KS/NE border, but we will be patient in Hastings.

[John Farley]

I'm happy where I am in Nebraska City. Satellite and radar suggest stuff trying to fire just to my NW, and with a little back building once they get going, I could be in the perfect spot. I also could be too far south, but if so, I can blast north on 29 and catch the storms as they cross into Iowa.

[Chris Lott]

I'm staying in McPherson,KS. I wish I stayed in OK, but I have already made the drive and it's too late to head back. I'm staying where I'm at and will make a play off of what develops, if it's close enough. Looks like a cell going up on the KS/NE border. I'm looking for development SW of that to move my way. Still hoping for a cell to come off the dryline and move in my direction.

[Verne Carlson]

Holding tight in Kearney, NE - CU field to my northeast and initiation going on in northcentral KS. Waiting to see which way to go.

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like I need to be just a tad north so will head into Grand Island for a pre chase bite to eat. Love the 50 kts. of deep layer shear and strong directional shear in LL. Think this may be a fruitful chase.

[Connor McCrorey]

I am leaving Blackwell, OK, and heading to Vici, OK. I should get there just before 0z.

[Jeff Duda]

Staying in Columbus, NE

[scott r currens]

I'm making the 4-hour drive from Childress, TX to Dodge City, KS.

Target: Dodge City, KS at 22z

With the stuff going up in the E TX PHL I have holted my progress north at 21z in Laverne, OK. I'll sit here and watch the TCU to my SW. It is hot and I don't like the tornado prospects in SW KS and W OK because of that. The best shot at a tornado appears to be within an hour of sunset. I should have gone to NE or far SW TX.

[Michael P. Morris]

I made it to Beatrice and saw the little blip on the visible satellite on the KS-NE border, hoping that it is the start of something big here around the warm front. It's still a little capped out here, but LCLs should come down a little bit with additional moisture being brought in by the 850 mb flow. If anything appears to break the cap I am well on my way to meet it down 103/136.

[Derek Weston]

based on 18z I liked SE Neb to SW IA possibly. (with the option to head SW into N Kansas) Lincoln area would be OK as I'm coming in from Eastern Iowa.

21z confirmed that I had a workable location, will stay here until further notice...

[Corey Sloan]

TARGET: Moving from Belleville, KS to near Chester, NE a short drive up Hwy 81. INITIATION: 0Z to 02Z.

Road structure is not optimum, but manageable in all directions from this area.....like what I am seeing on the vis sat as well as the forecasted wind fields and CAPE....sure hope I have Internet connection here in NE to look at SKEW-T Data from the area!

[Chris Frost]

I too am moving up US 81 coming from Concordia for Hebron Nebraska. I'm thinking that the north target should get going by 23z or so. Either way I'm still happy as I have spent virtually $0 on gas...lol

[Shane Adams]

I'll be leaving Paducah, TX headed southwest, methodically working my way towards the Midland/Odessa area. Lotta daylight left and in good position, so no worries.

[Andrew Revering]

Its still looking fairly well capped in Nebraska, however CU are starting to build around the Triple Point.

I'm down in the Eastern Texas panhandle city of Wheeler, TX and I've got a cell popping about 60 miles to my Southwest. I'm going to let that thing mature and head right toward me. I'm pretty certain I'll have myself a severe storm, but the LCLs are sky high, so I have little hope for a tornado out here.

[Matthew Harding]

I am still putting my money on the northern target getting going by 23z, so I will likely stay put here in Belleville, KS and move once I see signs of initiation. Best of luck to those playing the southern angle.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I'm still liking Fairbury/Hebron.

[mikegeukes]

Sitting in Aurora Nebraska.

[Brett Roberts]

From my 21:30 UTC position in Concordia, I'll hop north and east to Fairbury, NE and arrive by 23 UTC - shouldn't have to worry about being late to the show, judging by the current vis sat/radar imagery.

[Darin Brunin]

After grabbing a bite to eat in Elm Creek I am going to move east towards Wood River, NE. It seems like a decent place to hang out and watch the Cu field to the northeast while holding true to my original target at Holdrege.

[Josh Richardson]

Still sitting here in Fairmont, NE off to the east of Hastings, realizing there is nothing to do in this town so I hope initiation happens soon.

[Tim Segraves]

I think I'll stick it out here at my initial target of Phillipsburg, KS and watch these towers go up to the west. I've got the car pointed north and ready to go if things start firing in southern NE.

[Dennis Sherrod]

Glad I left Emporia several hours ago and worked my way into S. NE. I did not go back to Beatrice after my last chase. So, I will look at the 13 streets of Auburn now.

[Adam Lucio]

Time for me to go east from phillipsburg to 81. Probably going to head N into Nebraska, towards Hebron. Ive seen a good chunk of Kansas today. Time for a change of scenery

[Dennis Dennison]

leaving grand island for Belleville KS

[David Wolfson]

At my 21Z multi-purpose Phillipsburg, KS, stop. Cell going up near me could blow and worth keeping an eye on. But have decided not to divert for it and to get north to I-80 ASAP. Keeping to original plan of 23/00Z at Wood River by way of Elm Creek at 22:15Z. If this cell warns in the next hour I'll take US136, NE4, or US34 east to close with it.

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm going to sit where I'm at in Alma and watch the area of interest right along the KS/NE border.

[Nathan Edwards]

I've followed the dry line east since my last position which has left me in North central Kansas. Ideally I now want to be heading north into the better shear, but I'm also tempted to latch onto whateer appears to be showing on vis sat in the Phillipsburg area. This cell would move into a more favourable area assuming the good shear doesn't move north also! :) I expect I'll be into Southern Nebraska before too long, either on this cell as it moves north east, or ditching it and playing catchup with some decent tor producers just out of reach in the area bounded by Grand Isle, Lincoln and Columbus, NE.

[JWallentine]

I'm liking my spot in Hebron and will just sit and wait here for initiation. Possible cu field going up to my northeast and maybe the first tower of the day to my west just south of the KS/NE border. Watch should be up around here soon. Playin the waiting game now.

[Dick McGowan]

S***, I second-guessed myself with everyone heading north for the northern play and didn't hold on to my original starting point of San Angelo, TX. I'm heading back south and west to Midland and will intercept these storms south of there as they are firing now. (BTW, I was thinking Throckmorton was in the eastern Texas Panhandle for some reason, but was mistaken!) The SPC jinx of a blue box can only mean good things for me. I hope I can make it in time...

[Corey Sloan]

Busting *** to the east into southern IA. Probably not going to make it....but it is my best shot from the location I am in. However, it will get me to the I-35 corridor and only 3 hours from home once I get there. :)

[Bob Hartig]

I'm going to stay put here in York, NE, for the time being and make my adjustments as things start to pop. No need to move till then. I like the dewpoints and LLJ where I'm at, and I can bump west in a heartbeat if and when I need to.

[Paul Austin]

I'll set up shop near Kinsley, KS with several road options for adjustments to whatever the dry line and moisture axis do during the morning/early afternoon. A bit more CAPE further south, but the upper air support is further north. Like an idiot, I'll probably end up where neither exists.

Sitting here west of the dry line in indecision with only 3 hours until the 24z update and about 5 hours of daylight. I could get to southern NE in 3 hours or perhaps south towards Woodward within a couple of hours.

I think I'll resist the urge to fly northward in favor of a less crowded target. I'll finally leave my initial target of Kinsley and bail toward the Buffalo to Woodward to Arnett general area, depending on what I can see going on with the dry line convection. Again, my prediction was that I would get impatient, leave my target, and watch with horror as the cell I want goes up where I was before. But I think this is unlikely this day. It's more likely I miss the NE action.

[Sam Kennedy]

After looking at the 21z data I would start a 3 hour drive from Dallas TX to Oklahoma city, depending on whether I'm actually in TX yet?

[Patrick Martin]

Been sitting in Red Cloud for a bit, and am going to drift north to Hastings to top off the gas, and wait on initiation. It's been a while since I've seen the O'Keefe's, so I'll stop and say hello if I see them.

[Chris C Sanner]

I've been chilling out in Red Cloud for a little bit, but I'm going to jaunt Northward now to the warm-front/triple point-ish looking feature...I'm expecting development from Kearney to Alma sooner or later along the Triple Point/dryline. If the storms decide to latch onto the warm front, it could be Tornado city in the I-80 corridor area with the shear in place as well as increasing instability.

[Scott Weberpal]

Just curious as to whether or not the wayfaring map is going to be updated for our later targets? Started in Guymon at 12z, but should be to the Grand Island area by 00z ;)

[Shelli Valdivia]

I am going to stay where I am in Hebron and hope it fires up to the NE of me.

[Mark Farnik]

I've decided to leave Smith Center, KS and have taken a 30 mile jaunt up Kansas Highway 8/Nebraska Highway 10 to Franklin, NE, placing myself about 20 miles east of the dryline/triple point intersection, which now appears to be roughly in the vicinity of Phillipsburg/Alma, judging by the highly agitated cu field which is developing on the KS/NE border area. Expecting cells will rapidly fire near the DL/TP intersection from Alma to Elm Creek, so I'm prepared to blast north on Highway 10 towards I-80. I have plenty of east/west road options between Franklin and I-80, so I can adjust either direction as necessary to intercept. I expect a tornado watch will be issued for extreme north central KS and all of south central NE shortly.

[Dann Cianca]

Got out of work late again ... haulin' ass across eastern Colorado. Hope to bee in Dodge City soon.

[Verne Carlson]

Heading east from Kearny, NE to Grand Island, NE - I like the CU field developing.

[Brian Stertz]

Got my lawn chair out and just waiting for things to go. I do believe that I have found the magic spot within 20 miles of me. Grand Island magic.

[JF Massicotte]

After reading 18Z update I decide to rush towards Hebron, Ne from Hays, Ks, it's a 3hr drive so should be here for the 21Z update.



After 21z update I sit down in hebron, pretty confident that if something is going to heppen I'm in the right place...

[Chad Cowan]

0z - Final Update Reports, date and pictures will be revealed tomorrow evening.


http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/1585/0zvissatoj0.jpg

2330z
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0z
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2330z
http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/7259/2330spradardl8.jpg

0z
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[Verne Carlson]

I have a beautiful supercell just to my west in Grand Island, NE - got great position on this one!

[Joel Wright]

I'll be leaving Erick Oklahoma and heading west on I-40 to somewhere east of Amarillo to intercept the storms there. They aren't looking very tornadic but it's my only play at this point LOL.

[Chris Allington]

From Central City I saw initiation and headed just SW to Grand Island to get on the storm.

[Paul Austin]

Well, my only play is the linear-looking storms near and south of Pampa, TX. Pampa is about 2.5 hrs from my present position, so if I race that direction, I might catch a half hour to an hour of pre-dark action, depending on storm speed toward my position. This is certainly not the best position to be in. I'm currently kicking myself for choosing the southern dry line setup over the warm front. though the roads are relatively clear of the normal chaser congestion down here. It's better than a blue-sky bust. I'll take whatever nature offers at this point.

[Brian Stertz]

Thar she blows....a nice sculpted beauty and am right beside the towering beast west of GRI. If it keeps east, it should tornado nicely.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

With the 0Z, I'm going to drive from Hebron slowly up US-81, going no further than I-80. I won't have to go far.

[John Farley]

By 2330Z I was crossing into Iowa and booking north on I-29 toward Missouri Valley, IA, hoping new cells will form along the WF between the ones firing northeast of there and the other stuff farther west in Nebraska. If a new cell or two forms along the front just NW of Omaha as I expect, I will be in position to intercept just north of Missouri Valley before dark.

EDIT - Looks like if this strategy actually works, I'll have the storm to myself as everyone else converges on the Grand Island storm, which was too far west for me to take a shot at.

[Danny Neal]

Hootie-Hoot! I am in Geneva, Nebraska, just south of York and just east of Grand Island, and I LOVE what I see! I think I will stroll up 81 to just W or NW of Central City, should take less than an hour, but time doesn't matter anymore with this bad boy perusing the prairies!

[Bob Hartig]

Yeah, BAYbee! Here we go, yesyesyesyesYESSS!!! (Leave it alone--it ain't what it sounds like! :) )

I headed west out of York down US 34 as the storms started going up and am now approaching US 281 and feeling the adrenaline. After last spring's comedy of photo errors, I've learned how to use my camera. Looks like I just might finally get some decent tube shots.

[Adam Lucio]

North on 81 I am going to get the cell near Grand Island or perhaps any new development. Aiming for York right now, Im a bit behind but I think I can make it.

[Mark Farnik]

Upon spotting the beautiful supercell on the northern horizon, I blast north from Franklin on Highway 10 to I-80 and tear east/northeast to Highway 281, work my way through Grand Island in a rapid fashion and move to intercept the cell on Highway 30 as it moves between Grand Island and Central City. The chase is on!:D

[Scott Weberpal]

Hopping on the developing supercell between Grand Island and Central City and will follow it toward York. What amazing structure on the storm!

I'm streaming live video of the event...

http://www.tornadofx.com/live.wmv

[Dann Cianca]

I'm giving up on Dodge City, seeing the cells in the Texas Panhandle. I'm not going to make it to Nebraska in time, so I'll drop south close to the Oklahoma border (Englewood, Kansas) and wait for the cells to move north and east. If anything, it's going to be a good lightning night!

[Andrea Griffa]

I left toward Grand Islands just 15 min ago and I'm starting to see some nice towers in the distance.

[Doug Mitchell]

Still following the initial development that occurred along the KS/NE border to the NE towards Grand Island, NE

[Michael P. Morris]

Heading for the storm near Grand Island like everyone else. You can make out the warm front on the OAX radar, so I am hoping this one tracks just north of east, remaining along the boundary, and goes crazy.

[Dennis Dennison]

Man, flipping a Uturn back towards grand island-I am going to predits touchdowns in and around Aurora-That my final stop
although i do believe something possible in and around Pampa tx area too.... but its Aurora for me

[Josh Richardson]

Im on 81 just south of I-80 in Fairmont and in perfect position to intercept, taking a leisurely stroll up 81 a few miles to the York area or maybe a little north...either way hopping on this supercell.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Have intercepted the beautiful supercell near Grand Island! WOOOO

[JF Massicotte]

Move from Hebron to the north (York area) to intercept this supercell near Grand Island.. Pretty confident I will celebrate a tornado with a steak after the chase.

[Corey Sloan]

Checked data in Lanham, NE...liked what I saw and made a beeline for Knox, NE just off I-80...will check radar trends when I arrive and refine my final target location....but my initial thoughts are around the Kearney, NE area.

[Tim Segraves]

Well, I seem to be a little too far south so I'm going to head north out of Phillipsburg, KS towards Alma, NE then east to Red Cloud, NE and finally north towards Hastings. If anything goes up directly to my northwest on the way I'll stop to take a look.

[Shelli Valdivia]

Heading north on 81. Hopefully make it to York in time to intercept that supercell!

[Patrick Martin]

Phew am I glad I've moved north through the afternoon! I am loving what I'm seeing! Left Hastings and am set to intercept the cell near Grand Island.

[David Wolfson]

Per plan I ditched the Phillipsburg cell that never took off and arrived 23Z at Wood River -- about 20 miles southwest of Grand Island. BTW, I targeted Wood River over Grand Island for the NE11 north highway option that avoids going through the city.

Lo and behold (for once!) I just had time to gas up, clean bugs off the window, etc., etc., when the cell-of-the-day blows up a few miles to my northwest. At 00Z I'm at the nexus of an intensifying virtual chaser convergence trying to negotiate a view into this HPish beast without getting pummeled.

[Brett Roberts]

Shouldn't have strayed east from US-81 it looks like! Flying out of Fairbury towards York, where I should arrive by 0130 UTC - hopefully just as the GRI cell is rolling in.

[Matthew Harding]

Headed from Belleville, KS to York, NE where I hope to intercept the Grand Island supercell.

[Chris Frost]

After looking the Final update...

Well, like everyone else that was in the Hebron area, I'm headed for the US81-I-80 area. It's about a 50 mile drive so hopefully I can make it in time for any tornadoes.

[Chris C Sanner]

Looking at this BEAUTIFUL Supercell off to my west here on I-80...looks like I got a nice lowering with some decent rotation developing...or maybe that's just my imagination talking? :D

[Chris Allington]

Hopping on the developing supercell between Grand Island and Central City and will follow it toward York. What amazing structure on the storm!

I'm streaming live video of the event...

http://www.tornadofx.com/live.wmv

Is this that day? I didn't think any other trailing convection developed that day down into Kansas like it did in this case.

[Robert Edmonds]

On my way to intercept from Phillipsburg KS... heading north east into Nebraska.

[Danny Neal]

From York, I am heading to Benedict (just north of York) To enjoy the show all evening long. I am sure I will run into many of you so "Hey" in advance! Got my cams locked and loaded.

[Andrea Griffa]

Is this that day? I didn't think any other trailing convection developed that day down into Kansas like it did in this case.

Looking the radar the initiation is quite similar to may 10 2005, but I'm not sure that is right...Let's wait for the real conclusion:)

[JWallentine]

As i watched the towers go up to my north and west(was sitting in Hebron) I jetted northwest to the cell near Grand Island. Looks like it has the potential to be a beast.

[Darren Addy]

I'm way too far south and now heading north on HWY 81 out of Belleville and hoping to catch something coming my way in Nebraska before dark.

[John Gnuechtel]

Pretty happy with my decision to head towards Funk, NE. With a name like Funk, it couldn't fail. Would like to think I'd head a bit northeast to try and chase that nice storm near Kearney. Whether I would've made the right choice in real life is an entirely different matter. :)

[Paul Austin]

Looking the radar the initiation is quite similar to may 10 2005, but I'm not sure that is right...Let's wait for the real conclusion:)

Not to hijack the thread, but as an aside, I was thinking the same thing. But I think the cell in Iowa was a bit further north and drifted S/SE toward Des Moines. The boundary was clearly evident on radar in Iowa on that day as well. We were late to the Grand Island storm (intercepted right at dark just W of York), as we had left Pine Bluff, AR after 9am that day to intercept whatever we could reasonably reach in NE (we were visiting relatives). I originally thought this might be May 11, 2005, when we ditched our original target for the warm front and were "rewarded" with cold precip-filled straight line winds and no visible cloud structure, while a beautiful photogenic cone tornado was photographed within about 20 miles of our original target on an isolated classic supercell along the dry line in SW/SC KS just prior to sunset. This is one of the reasons I resisted the urge to move up into NE on this chase case.

[Darin Brunin]

Don't drive into that thing...I just got all of my windows smashed by baseballs ;)

[Shane Adams]

If I'm not mistaken, isn't the reveal about six hours late now? Is there anyway to get these cases done and over before 3 days go by? I don't even remember where I'm at anymore.

[Paul Austin]

Not to hijack the thread, but as an aside, I was thinking the same thing. But I think the cell in Iowa was a bit further north and drifted S/SE toward Des Moines. The boundary was clearly evident on radar in Iowa on that day as well...

Actually, I might be wrong about this. The link below is the reports for 5/10/2005.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/050510_rpts.html

It matches up pretty well. If I had noticed it earlier, I certainly would have played the I80 corridor. So? How about the reveal? Can we see it soon?

[Joel Wright]

Yep, that's gotta be it. Everything matches up perfectly.

If that is indeed the date then I busted. I was east of Amarillo and only saw some marginal hail/wind. Should have stayed closer to home up in Nebraska I guess.

[Scott Weberpal]

You guys are right, compare the SPC text Chad posted with the SPC text from that day, it's exact (sorry Chad, you took too long, the natives were getting restless). Here are my pics from that day on the Grand Island storm...

http://www.tornadofx.com/stormtrack/051005_st02.jpg

http://www.tornadofx.com/stormtrack/051005_st03.jpg

http://www.tornadofx.com/stormtrack/051005_st04.jpg
http://www.tornadofx.com/stormtrack/051005_st05.jpg

[Chad Cowan]

Sorry I'm late, the date is indeed May 10, 2005 (http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/050510/index.html). Although the radar presentation wasn't as good as the Iowa supercell, multiple tornadoes were reported with the photogenic storm near Grand Island, NE but I believe most of them were brief spinups. This was likely due to the high dewpoint depressions/LCL's. The lone supercell in Iowa had 4 tornado reports attributed to it. Storm structure in the TX panhandle was generally multi-cellular thanks to the lack of upper support and veered surface winds due to the dryline bulging out to the north. Does anyone know about the tornado report in northern KS? Looking at radar, there was not a storm in KS at the time it was reported. The awesome pictures below are Mike Hollingstead's of the Grand Island, NE supercell. Congrats to all who picked the NE/ northern KS target early on!

Initial target map:
http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/export/54011

Forecast thread:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4127

Now thread:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4177

Reports thread:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4197

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/050510/act-plot.gif

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/7608/iagd5.jpg

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/6443/71660849rp4.jpg

http://www.extremeinstability.com/stormpics/05-5-10-3385.jpg

http://www.extremeinstability.com/stormpics/05-5-10-3393.jpg

[Andrea Griffa]

Ok, we did guess it. Anyway, I'm pretty convinced that there wasn't any tornado in Grand Island. Maybe we saw some funnels with ground condensation. I saw some incredible RFDnadoes and one of them did catch me.
Here are some pictures of the early stage of the supercell taken by me and 2 video in Gran Island with the wall cloud and the RFDnado hitting us taken by my chase partner Fabio Giordano.

http://it.youtube.com/watch?v=bV1LH-gnOhE

http://it.youtube.com/watch?v=MIklQ2cp52Y&feature=channel_page



http://www.thunderstormteam.it/Sito_Thunderstorm_Team/La_supercella_di_Grand_Islands_del_10_Maggio_2005_ files/CRW_0248.jpg



http://www.thunderstormteam.it/Sito_Thunderstorm_Team/La_supercella_di_Grand_Islands_del_10_Maggio_2005_ files/CRW_0255.jpg

http://www.thunderstormteam.it/Sito_Thunderstorm_Team/La_supercella_di_Grand_Islands_del_10_Maggio_2005_ files/img43144cb33f6a8.jpg

[Shane Adams]

LOL that's now three chase cases from days I stayed home, so I continue to stink it up.

[Josh Richardson]

Probably due to the fact that all 3 chases cases have involved main targets in the NE/MN/IA region, I was actually kind of surprised by that.

[Adam Lucio]

Good work Chad these excercises really keep you on your feet.

For me the forecast was a bit of a loss because I targeted further south in Kansas to begin with...I was baking on a dryline event with the better CAPE showing up in the south...however if this were an actual chase day I probably would have adjusted the right way and been able to at leaste get on the storms in NE...weather or not in time to see the best stuff....well who can say for sure? But since for me the main point is to make a good forecast off the bat ill take this one as a loss...I did better on 3 though.

Good stuff. Keep em coming.

[Tim Segraves]

I guess I would have been close to some of the action but whether I would have seen anything is a whole other question. :)

[Damon Scott Hynes]

On that day, I chased to Blair, NE. Three years later, I picked Hebron. That's interesting in and of itself :eek:

[Andrea Griffa]

I guess I would have been close to some of the action but whether I would have seen anything is a whole other question. :)

Tim, that day was not too difficult to chase; I remember there was a big chasers convergence in Grand Island. A lot of chasers were starting to give theirself up because skies were clear till 7pm. Then suddenly a tower started and everyone headed to that. If that supercell has been tornadic, the major part of the chasers would have nailed the tube.

C'mon, let's start with the new case, now (who's the next one?)!

[Matthew Harding]

I thoroughly enjoy doing these. I nailed this one, and didn't do so hot on case#3. I feel that these cases help reinforce to me what I have been reading. Keep 'em coming!

[Bob Hartig]

Chad, you did a great job. Many thanks!

I'm really enjoying these chases. I busted in West Texas on chase #3, but I feel good about nailing this one. These scenarios are a great way to while away the cold months tightening down my forecasting skills for when it counts.

[Jeff Duda]

Thanks, Chad. Great scenario.

I'm happy I was in a good spot to hit at least one of the storms (I was sitting in Columbus, NE, so getting to the Grand Island supercell would've been a snap). Turns out I would've seen more if I had stayed home in central Iowa, but that's how chasing goes.

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks, Chad. Great scenario.

I'm happy I was in a good spot to hit at least one of the storms (I was sitting in Columbus, NE, so getting to the Grand Island supercell would've been a snap). Turns out I would've seen more if I had stayed home in central Iowa, but that's how chasing goes.

Jeff this was the brief tornado you lost, taken by twister sister site:

http://www.twistersisters.com/051005.htm

[Scott Weberpal]

I'll take the Grand Island structure that day over any of the brief low-contrast tornadoes on the Iowa storm. Still to this day the best "structure" storm I've ever been on.

[Dann Cianca]

I busted hard in SW Kansas. Anyone want to get a beer?

[Darren Addy]

Well, it appears that even though I didn't play it well I would have had plenty of time to get north out of Belleville in time to catch some Nebraska action. Even if I didn't leave until the 00z update - the York tornado (3 miles north of town) that was reported at 9:41 pm was only 90 minutes north of me. Unfortunately, that would have been after dark, I believe.

I remember this day very well because I couldn't chase, but I watched that monster just sit there and grow on the intersection of Custer, Hall, Buffalo and Howard counties (25 steeenkin' miles from me). It didn't start moving east for a VERY long time. Its radar presentation was just killing me.

[Chad Cowan]

If that supercell has been tornadic, the major part of the chasers would have nailed the tube.


Andrea- can you (or anyone else who chased that day) clarify where all those tornado reports are from with the Grand Island supercell? With all that RFD dust being kicked up I'm sure there were quite a few false reports. Verne Carlson has video of a tornado dark from that storm as LCL's dropped from loss of diurnal heating:
http://www.stormchaserco.com/20050510_T1_1.jpg

[Paul Austin]

Andrea- can you (or anyone else who chased that day) clarify where all those tornado reports are from with the Grand Island supercell? With all that RFD dust being kicked up I'm sure there were quite a few false reports. Verne Carlson has video of a tornado dark from that storm as LCL's dropped from loss of diurnal heating:


I would bet there were quite a few false reports.

I don't have any images or vidcaps, but we got on the storm just NW of York on the south side of the airport. We observed what we believed at the time to be a very weak tornado around the time of that 9:41 pm report (it was after dark, Daren), but with so much dust, we figured we could have been mistaken. Supposedly, there was some minor damage near the airport, but we never went back to confirm. Perhaps I can capture a still from our video.

[Brian Stertz]

LOL and in RL this day I chased the supercell that meandered over by Audubon IA. It was pretty high based and seemed to struggle overall with getting things condensed down to lower levels. Pic from that day :rolleyes::

http://vortex-times.com/vault2.jpg

[Dennis Dennison]

I settled on Aurora,Ne, I went strictly on the maps put up, I didnt try to find matching maps, and went on my own instincts-although I did waste a lot of time driving around, I managed to pick a point that was near 20 miles of the big storms-and I am certain had i actually been there that day, I would have been watching the sky and got into something--so I feel good that i would have scored a hit. There was also severe weather not far from Pampa,Tx, but no tornado.

[Dennis Dennison]

Yes, I forgot-Thanks for these--It is good practice,and C H E A P!!!!!

[John Farley]

Well, I put myself in a pretty good place for the Iowa storm in Nebraska City, but as is often the case, what I would have seen had I actually chased this would have depended on decisions in the field. If I had gone after the Iowa storm as soon as I saw it on radar or visually, I might have scored. By the time of the 2330Z radar Chad posted, it would have been difficult to catch, but of course the storm was there earlier so I might have moved earlier. From the Twister Sisters' photo, it looks like the tornado was visible from behind the storm, so approaching from the SW might have been fine. OTOH, the structure was obviously better with the Grand Island storm, which I was too far east for. Still, since my mid-afternoon position was within 70 miles of where tornadoes occurred after 000Z, I put myself where I had a chance if I made good decisions once the storms went up.

BTW - I looked this day up on the NCDC storm events page, and it indicated 3 tornadoes on the Iowa storm and 2 on the Grand Island storm (but lots of funnels also on the latter).

Thanks for all the work on this, Chad - great exercise!