Chase Case #3

[Andrew Revering]

I spent a good chunk of the day putting this one together, and I know we have Case #2 going on concurrently, but I've got so many maps that I thought we could take this one slower and let people feast on it while they work on the other one.

I've got groups of data that I'll release:
12z Observations & Model Forecasts for 00z = Available Now
15z = I'll release it Friday around Noon
18z = I'll release it Friday around 6pm
21z = I'll release it Saturday Late Morning
00z = I'll release it Saturday Night
Storm Report (Results) = I'll release it on Sunday

So here we go!

12z 250mb Observation
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12z250mb.gif

12z 300mb Observation
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12z300mb.gif

12z 500mb Observation
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12z500mb.gif

12z 700mb Observation
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12z700mb.gif

12z 850mb Observation
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12z850mb.gif

12z 925mb Observation
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12z925mb.gif

12z CAPE/CIN
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12zCAPECIN.gif

12z Infrared Satellite
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12zIR.jpg

12z Lapse Rates
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12zLapse.gif

12z Radar
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12zRAD.gif

12z Surface
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12zSFC.gif

12z Shear
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12zShear.gif

12z Vorticity
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/12zVort.gif

13z Profiler
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/12z/13zProf.gif

***************MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID @ 00z*********************

00z Pressure
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00zSFC.png

00z Temperatures
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00zsfctemp.png

00z Dew Points
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00zSFC_Dew.png

00z Surface Theta-E
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00zSFC_ThetaE.png

00z Surface Based CAPE
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00zSBCAPE.png

00z Mixed Layer CAPE
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00zMLCAPE.png

00z Surface Based CIN
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00zsbcin.png

00z Mixed Layer CIN
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00zmlcin.png

00z 850mb Temperatures
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z950temp.png

00z 700mb Temperatures
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z700temp.png

00z 850mb Dew Point
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z850_dew.png

00z 850mb Wind Speeds
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z850mbSpeed.png

00z 500mb Temperatures
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z500temp.png

00z 500mb Wind Speeds
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z500mbSpeed.png

00z 6km Deep Layer Shear
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z6kmShear.png

00z 3km MLCAPE
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z3kmmlcape.png

00z 3km Helicity
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z3kmHel.png

00z 2km Lapse Rates
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z2kmlapse.png

00z 1km VGP
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z1kmVGP.png

Place your bets!

[Dennis Dennison]

I see this just went up--so I am putting out my first thoughts based on a quick scan. I believe I am going to head for Altus, Ok and see how things go.

[Mike Ridgeway]

Lots of great maps! I'm starting in Wichita, KS. I'm ready to make a move into OK if I need to. Wow, how about the winds both upper level and surface. And I do like the moisture transport from the south. Something big is going up and I'll be ready for this one to come to me!

[Adam Lucio]

Hmmm I see a northern target area and a southern one.

Due to local bias I would pick the northern target, but an occluding low and the thought of veering winds [not to mention largely unidirectional at this time]would deter me. Although there is some decent turning in the lower levels. Id probably sit at home and wait for the latest runs before deciding if I want to play the northern target...NC Iowa...or head down to the southern target and go for NC Oklahoma.

Of course if this were the start of a multiple day chasecation in the plains [or a weekend] I would take that...but Ill assume this to be a 1 day event.

Still sitting at home...waiting for updates.

EDIT: On second thought, im always too antsy so Im going to leave and hangout in Walcott, IA at the Iowa 80 truck stop and wait for updates there. Nice large cafe with a wendys.

[Danny Neal]

Well since I am starting in Chicago, I might as well play the northern target even though my heart is down south lol. That being said I am on the road for Des Moines, Iowa. Can be in Iowa City in time for the 15Z outlook. I can't ignore the divergence going on in Northern Iowa per the 250 MB and 300's. With a warm front also laying accross Southern Minnesota. SW winds in the lower levels with a SSE surface wind does grab my attention but with an occluding low I fear veering winds and a largely unidirectional mess is on tap. I am so-so on the early morning convection as it may keep down instability (there is marginal CAPE as is) but it MAY lay down and outflow boundary and wreak some havoc along and south of the warm front. Id like to see Temps and Dews raise another 10 degrees each but now I am getting greedy. Not to much of a convective inhibition and still pretty cold 700 MB's so I fear it may be "when one goes they all go" type scenario...... Certainly something to ponder as I am driving west on I 80 lol. Like on November 5th of 08 though.......Can still make it to SE KS by 2 PM ;)

[Chris Lott]

I'm going to start in Woodward,OK and wait for the next update.

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm flying towards Mankato, MN

[Paul Austin]

Always a concern for a cap bust further south, especially with the morning cloud cover. But I don't like the cooler surface temps SE of the northern target and the potential for a mess of rapid moving storms. I'll take a chance on possible slower moving storms along a TX/OK dryline, even with weaker upper air support. I'm gonna park my chasemobile near Clinton, OK and wait for further data to adjust N or S.

[scott r currens]

I'll go with the cold-core target and head to Summit, SD.

[Darin Brunin]

I think I'll start out in Wahpeton, ND.

Edit: Lol Scott...As I was just looking at the data I was wondering which city you were going to pick in that area. Come to ND and see a tornado with me ;-)

[Chad Cowan]

I'm stimulating the local economy of Ortonville, MN, due west of MSP right on the SD border waiting for initiation. Looking at IR, there was a strong mid-level dry punch that mixed out the low clouds behind the overnight convection. I would expect to top the 65 degrees that is progged. This area has a great thermodynamic profile that isn't shown well with the forecast CAPE because of the low surface moisture. I'm banking on an intense string-of-pearls developing shortly before 0z as lift is enhanced in this left-front region of the 500mb jet streak.

[Josh Richardson]

Well this time Im up in the area already so sticking with the northern target of course, heading for Nicollet, MN and will re-position from there.

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm starting in Ft.Dodge,Ia along the cold front, even if I see a possibility of a cold core setup in the Dakotas.

[Darren Addy]

I don't mind telling you that this one confuses the heck out of me. I guess I'm liking the winds in NE Kansas and hoping that the tongue of the moisture return will be there by showtime. I may be in no-man's land with no surface lows or fronts in the vicinity, but I'm hoping that I'll get lift from the big divergence at the 300mb level there. I'll take Hiawatha, KS for now but I may be making a BIG adjustment later, if there is time.

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like I will position myself in the Sioux City area and make some later day adjustments from there. First wave roaring through this morning so should have some good clearing behind it with some pretty cold temps. at 500mb ...ie some good steep lapse rates later in the afternoon.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I think I will head to Mankato, MN along the warm front. The on going storms may provide an outflow boundary in S MN or IA and I have seen some crazy storms on Iowa outflow boundaries so I want to be in position for something like that.

[JF Massicotte]

I'll start in Mason City, Ia

[Verne Carlson]

At 12z I would only hope to be in the right tri-state area. Based on what I see I'd start in Sioux Falls, SD

[Danny Neal]

Had slight change in plans while driving. Decided it would be 2 and 1/2 extra hours to shoot up I 90 through Madison, WI and hit Albert Lea, MN. Figured it would be way easier to drop south and chase anything coming out of IA and having I 35 right there intersecting with I 90, than having to chase it up north. 12Z - 1730Z/18Z on the road to Albert Lea, MN.

Will make a pitstop on the 15Z outlook and see what things look like. I will be in Madison, WI, at that time so we will go from there.

Can't ignore all that helicity in WI but everything would most likely be elevated as there is no CAPE and barely enough decent moisture. Do like the Dakotas border area too, lots of vorticity with that L.

[Dennis Sherrod]

I didn't look at this one as much as #2, so I will probably change my location. For now, Cedar Rapids sort of catches my eye, so I will park it here for awhile.

[David Wolfson]

Thankfully I don't have to think about a 1,000 mile trip back to the TX/OK dryline. If I were I'd stick around in northern OK -- Ponca City, say -- and wait for noonish data to see where development might focus.

The upper features don't seem quite right for a cold-core setup. Anyway, the axis of moisture and forced development at12Z extends down to something like Bethany in northwest MO where the tail-end storm is showing a divergent 'v' on satellite. The 00Z models show pretty good nosing of moisture, instability, and winds. There's a hint of an elevated trough axis and associated triple-point around Des Moines. I'll just go with trend and simple-mindedly project this mess into the afternoon.

So for this trip, I would head northeast and start out on the Mississippi in extreme southeast MN at Dakota, MN.

[Sam Kennedy]

SD did look promising again, because of the shear, but there is not much moisture, and a cold front is about to move through which will make everything sucky. I would start in Oklahoma city, because there is a weak LLJ bringing in moisture from the gulf, and there is some CAPE and no CIN, there isn't much shear but that might change through the day. I will wait for the next set of maps. So My starting position is Oklahoma City

[Tony Perkins]

I'm going to buck the trend and go to Blackwell, OK.

[Matthew Harding]

This one is a toughie, as you could make an equally viable case for both targets. That said, since I am already in SC KS, I will make my way toward Emporia, KS and wait for the next set of data.

[Tom Dulong]

Since there would be no way for me to make the northern target from OKC, I am heading west to Clinton, OK. I will wait there and see what happens.

[Dean Baron]

I'll head down US 169 towards Mankato, MN, but may head a bit west depending on later data.

[Chris Allington]

Ugh... this one is tough for me too. Based on proximity alone I'm going to be chasing the Northern Target. Plus, I'm not terribly thrilled about the much warmer mid levels (capping) and terrain on the N. TX side of the Red River Valley, atleast not from the limited amount of time that I was there on my way to Austin once. I'm heading for Brookings, SD and will more than likely check the 15z update from either Souix City or Souix Falls depending on how fast I can make it out the door. I can adjust north or south on 29 and I really like the wind fields better with the northern target.

[Brad Nelson]

The northern target sure looks like a cold core set-up in my opinion. The 00Z pressure graphic is hinting at low pressure into southeast ND into northwest MN and around ~200 miles or so to the southeast of the 500 mb low. I'd probably want to target somewhere southeast of Fargo, ND near the Fergus Falls, MN area at this point.

The southern target is tricky and I don't think it looks all that great, but I'd want to position myself west of OKC and somewhere near the Hinton, OK area and wait for initiation on the dryline. Further south, I'd be worried about capping problems but this looks like some nice, soupy air so if it could overcome the cap there should be some decent storms, especially with the 65 degree dewps and higher CAPE nosing into this area by 00Z.

Interesting case!

[Michael P. Morris]

My initial thoughts would be to target Fort Worth, Texas, as the low level jet promises to keep the moisture fairly deep and prevent the dryline from rapidly advancing eastward. The upper level winds are a little uncertain as of 12Z, but the southern edge of the shortwave trough over New Mexico should pass directly over my head. The 250/300 mb winds should become a little more westerly as the cold core cyclone in the northern plains deepens and moves off to the east.

[Andrew Revering]

15z Data

14z Visible Satellite
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/15z/14zVIS.jpg

15z Visible Satellite
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/15z/15zVIS.jpg

15z Infrared Satellite
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/15z/15zIR.jpg

15z Profilers
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/15z/15zProf.gif

15z Radar
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/15z/15zRAD.gif

15z Surface
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/15z/15zSFC.gif

[Bob Hartig]

This is a freakin' HARD choice! Put me down in Hollister, OK, and keep me away from small arms so I don't shoot myself for not choosing the northern target. If I did, I'd start in Albert Lea. But I'm going to try my hand at the dryline. I'm sitting under a pretty stout cap, but it weakens within driving distance, and enough of the right could stuff converge to make things interesting this afternoon. Update should be coming shortly; guess I'll practice my sax till then.

Edit: Whoops, there's the update, right on cue.

[Doug Mitchell]

10am in Mankato. Sounds about right to kick back a few beers. Anybody else care to join me?

[Robert Edmonds]

There's an ongoing MCS... there's been allot of chases where my target is in the wake of this stuff. I don't like the NW upper level winds once you get up to SD and ND, maybe an extreme south eastern SD part of SD may be in play (after looking at 15z not sure about SD in play). With the upper level winds weakening in KS this leaves me to think eastern Nebraska. But where... for now I think I'd just be sitting somewhere in central eastern Nebraska. Maybe someone more wise than me could give me a reason to go more north or south.

hold on just noticed the 15z update...

I think I'll head south till I find a clearing in the couds

[Patrick Martin]

I freely admit I am more than a bit stumped on this one. Since the northern play would be to far out of reach for me, I'll play the southern one. I'll commit myself to Alva OK for now, liking the moisture return, and sitting north of the top of the heat axis, although I am worried about the upper level flow. Hopefully I am not so far off the mark that I can actually reposition as needed.

[Michael P. Morris]

From the satellite image at 15Z, there appears to be a subtle wind shift line extending from Bartlesville-Okemah-Dallas, and it appears to be moving in my direction. I still think Fort Worth is a good spot for now.

[Danny Neal]

12Z - 1730Z/18Z on the road to Albert Lea, MN.

Will make a pitstop on the 15Z outlook and see what things look like. I will be in Madison, WI, at that time so we will go from there.


Still on the road! Right now its 1530Z just a little past Madison, WI and heading west on I 90. Will run into the leftover MCS in about 75 minutes and still hit Albert Lea by about 18Z. So we are on target.

[Jeff Duda]

Initially I was buying into the developing low level low in SW KS and heading towards Junction City or somewhere else in NE KS, but ready to move north at a moment's notice. After looking at the 15Z stuff, I still want to sit towards the south, but I'd probably be looking for I-29 and be ready to head up towards E NE.

EDIT: By the way, Andrew, you said you were going to take this one slower than chase case #2, yet you are scheduling updates every 6 hours and having the end results out less than 48 hours after initiating the case. That doesn't sound very slow to me compared to the other two chase cases. Might I suggest giving people more time to "feast" on the data? There's a heck of a lot of it.

[Scott Weberpal]

Still on the road! Right now its 1530Z just a little past Madison, WI and heading west on I 90. Will run into the leftover MCS in about 75 minutes and still hit Albert Lea by about 18Z. So we are on target.

Careful Danny, I'm about an hour ahead of you and the Wisconsin State Patrol is running a speed trap near the Dells. I'm initially heading toward Mankato then I'll make a final decision whether to stay put or blast toward the cold core setup. I don't like the stratus filling in behind the ongoing convection.

[Brandon Sullivan]

Put me in Leavenworth, KS

[Bob Hartig]

Hoo, boy. Can there be two of me? The me sitting up in Albert Lea would be getting backed winds and probably wishing for a bit of a cap, if anything. The me down here in SW Oklahoma would be more than happy to swap the me up there a bit of CINH for some southeasterlies.

I'm not astute enough with remote sensing to extrapolate a lot from satellite imagery alone. I think those are mid-level clouds just to my east, which suggests moisture advection, but I should be doing just fine with deep moisture right where I'm at. Not crazy about these veering surface winds, though. My gut tells me I need to head northeast a bit, closer to OKC, but I'm going to stay put until I see more upper air charts.

[Danny Neal]

Careful Danny, I'm about an hour ahead of you and the Wisconsin State Patrol is running a speed trap near the Dells. I'm initially heading toward Mankato then I'll make a final decision whether to stay put or blast toward the cold core setup. I don't like the stratus filling in behind the ongoing convection.

Thanks for the heads up! ;) Yeah the stratus/subsidence or whatever you want to call it after MCS bites a little. That dry punch in SW MN is encouraging and makes me want to head for Willmar. But that is still 4 hours away from Albert Lea and would put me there by 22Z. 18Z will come out when I hear Albert Lea and hopefully by that time a nice clearing will evolve somewhere close. I don't think South Dakota is an option for me unless we are talking about a 7PM or later event.

[Shane Adams]

I'm a bit confused because the maps go from 12z to 0z....so is the whole day in one post? I was gonna go to Medford, OK to start but all those oz maps make everything south of I-70 look like crap....which is kinda a contest-killer cause the 12z stuff sure makes those southern areas look good. I guess I'll just stay in Medford because the 12z stuff made me go there, despite the fact the 0z stuff makes it look like HP blobs with little shear....but I'll take it.

So Medford, OK to start...and finish I guess, since the 0z maps are already posted too?

[Verne Carlson]

Not much change from my location in Sioux Falls, SD - but I may head north on I-29 to Brookings, SD just because my OCD makes me have to keep moving. I like what I see on the 15z visible sat for eastern SD!

[John Farley]

I am glad this is a fantasy chase because it's too darn far for me in Edwardsville, IL. But since I can fantasy-drive, I am on my way to NEW ULM, MN. I was thinking Albert Lea earlier but with the updated data I think I need to be a bit west of there to put more distance between myself and the worked-over atmosphere from the earlier convection. And at least if I bust in New Ulm, I can fantasy-drink some of that good New Ulm beer after the chase!

I'm lovin' that divergence in the jet that is going to move over MN; that's what drew me to the northern target to begin with.

[Bob Hartig]

I have a hunch that I'm screwed. But I made my bed in Oklahoma and I'll sleep in it. Time to head north as fast as I can for Alva. Great moisture and MLCAPE of 3,500 right where I'm sitting down here in Hollister, but it's capped pretty well and there's just nothing in the way of shear. But up there in the TX panhandle, a cu field is moving in, and upper-level winds start putting in some kind of an appearance. DeLorme tells me I can make my target in 3 hours and 44 minutes. Bet I can make it there by 21z.

EDIT: GOOD GRIEF!!! I can't keep my cases straight! Never mind any of the above. I looked at the wrong set of charts. I'm still sitting in Hollister. And I think I need a beer. Or maybe not.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Still sitting in Mankato, we are chillin at the local Pizza Ranch chowing down on pizza and wings with a nice Coke. Still thinks the front will be the place to be.

[Adam Lucio]

Man this is a toughy. Whatever the results will be, Im glad to say I will surely learn from this one. Sitting at Iowa 80 Im glad I didnt jut so far west. I dont like that cold front plowing through SD by 15z. Shear looks largely Unidirectional so to me im thinking linear mess. The dry punch is encouraging but will the atmosphere recover in time. ARGH.

But since the day is underway Im going to start heading west and keep a hawks eye on how things evolve. For some reason Im not sold on the north but dont know If I can make it south. Since Im closer to the northern target I will head north On I-35 and hope the morning crapvection lays down a boundary and then the dry punch can mix out the clouds and something will get going near the IA/MN border.

Ill meet Danny and Scott around ALbert Lea.

I know all about the Wisconsin speed traps too....Chased near Menomonee in late march of 07 and the state troopers were everywhere with radar guns on every bridge...squads were lined up on the ramps ready to go after people. ugh. glad Im on 80 where the speed limit is 70 ;)

[Charles Kuster]

This is a tough case. Based on the data up to 15Z, I will start in St. James, MN.

[David Wolfson]

Echoes are developing south-southwest of me ahead of the approaching line. I have a hunch I'll end up crossing the river later, but for now I'm still waiting in Dakota, MN, with the best road options on both sides of the river.

[Chris Allington]

Based on the 15z data I'm staying in Brookings where I moved earlier. I actually just got here a short time ago and had to check the 15z in Souix Falls. Getting ready to grab a quick lunch and fill up the gas tank for later.

[Josh Richardson]

Still sitting in Nicollet getting really really bored....might have to run over to Mankato just for something to do since its only a few minutes away.

[Andrew Revering]

I'm a bit confused because the maps go from 12z to 0z....so is the whole day in one post?

I'm jumping around here so maybe someone responded to this already... but 12z stuff is the observations, and the 00z stuff is forecast data for 00z. So I was trying to make it more realistic as if you sat down in the morning and had observations and forecast data to look at to pick your target. All further updates are observations at XXz.

[Andrew Revering]

By request, I have backed off the frequency of the updates. See the first post in this thread for the updated data release schedule.

Here is the 18z Update!

17z Profiler
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/18z/17zProf.gif

19z Profiler
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/18z/19zProf.gif

18z Infrared Satellite
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/18z/18zIR.jpg

18z Visible Satellite
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/18z/18zVIS.jpg

18z Radar
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/18z/18zRAD.gif

18z Surface
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/18z/18zSFC.gif

[David Wolfson]

Still a murky picture for me in Dakota, MN. The blokes out west of me near Mankato are seeing something, but if that's the show then I'm screwed and might as well get a few hours in back toward the high Plains. It's still early so I'll let the dynamics come to me a little bit. Plenty of daylight left up here, so holding for 21Z.

[Chris Allington]

Based on the 18z data I think I'm going to head southeast into NW or NC Iowa. Possibly the Ida Grove area. It should take me atleast 2 and a half hours and I hope the show will wait for me. I like the warmer surface temps and the subtle warm front.

[Danny Neal]

Seems like a storm is developing out of the stratus mess. Since it is 18Z I am heading west out of Albert Lea for a possible intercept?

EDIT: Nah, I just compared to where I think the cell is to where I am and I am not doing it. I hang out in Albert Lea and wait for the border region to flare up

[Josh Richardson]

Well I guess I'll stay where I am near Mankato, kind of wishing I was a little further south into IA but right now Im going to stay put and see what happens.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I will also stay near Mankato and watch these developing cells to see if they do anything interesting. If they don't I will likely head south to the MN/IA border.

[Robert Edmonds]

I think I'll be hanging around the eastern NE KS border maybe more on the KS side... This seems familiar to something I did before.

[Jeff Duda]

I'm now bustin' ass down highway 30 or I-80 getting as far east as I can. I'm guessing that ring/line of clouds in eastern NE is where anything is going to go up south of the triple point. I may have missed this one too far south, but I'm heading for W IA now. If I make it, I may start to head north along 71 in W IA.

EDIT: Wrong case. I'm actually driving up towards Nebraska City and then towards Omaha ready to cross the river at a moment's notice.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

After a tough debate we have decided to head to I90 and hang out near Worthington, MN for the time being and see if the warm front to the south and can lift north. If not we may make a last minute attempt to get into Iowa.

[Chris Lott]

Staying in Woodward, likely to bust.

[Michael P. Morris]

Still sitting tight in Fort Worth, if anything I may jog a bit northwest to greet the dryline-cold front intersection near Wichita Falls.

[Adam Lucio]

Not too confident in my target at this point. I already made the trip though so I will stick with my ALbert Lea target and hope some magic can happen. ALthough part of me wants to head back south again to Around Mason City, IA

Im beginning to think central OK was the place to be...

what a brain buster...

[Josh Richardson]

After a tough debate we have decided to head to I90 and hang out near Worthington, MN for the time being and see if the warm front to the south and can lift north. If not we may make a last minute attempt to get into Iowa.

I had been already contemplating that as well, Im heading to the Blue Earth Pizza Hut for a quick pit stop and wait for more data....more than likely heading back towards NC IA.

[Tony Perkins]

Ah shoot, I missed that many of those first maps were 0z model data and not 12z. That mistake leaves me in no mans land along I-35 in northern Oklahoma. I don't like the way things look, but I'll start heading west towards Ava, OK, even though the cold front is overtaking the dryline up here.

[John Farley]

I'm moving out from New Ulm now to stay ahead of the cells firing in the area. Likely my intercept will be somewhere east of there as the cells need a while to develop if, as I hope, this is the beginning of the show.

[Dennis Dennison]

I am leaving Altus, and heading for Joplin, too far south for any far noth intercepts, but Altus isnt gonna happen

[Darin Brunin]

Still sitting all by myself in N. Dakota waiting on the line of little guys to fire to my SW :p

[Verne Carlson]

I'm stair stepping my way down to Spencer, IA closer to the lifting WF where the temps are in the low 70s instead of low 60s north. Don't believe the initial convection near Redwood Falls, MN will be the show but I'm keeping my eye on it as I go east then south.

[Bob Hartig]

Still sitting tight in Fort Worth, if anything I may jog a bit northwest to greet the dryline-cold front intersection near Wichita Falls.

I'm thinking the same thing, only coming from the opposite direction. Not sure what to make of this scenario. Wind profiler shows PBL winds weakening over time, but also backing very slightly close to the surface while still veering decently with height. Wichita Falls it is. I'm either smart or skunked. But I'm sitting in the land of rich moisture and Heap Big CAPE, so my hopes are up. Speaking of which, Andy, would you kindly provide some CAPE/CINH indices on the next run?

[Brian Stertz]

I am seeing covective enhancement off to my east (north thru northeast of Ft. Dodge) and it looks like that could become a low topped supercell threat area. I had better fudge my way east-northeast and get into the higher shear and modest instability zone along/north of the boundary over N.Iowa.

[Josh Richardson]

LOL, Im so undecided that I keep drifting a little further south....now from Blue Earth I've made the short trek down 169 to Algona IA and am staying put for sure now until further data comes along.

[mikegeukes]

Hanging out in Carroll, Iowa

[Matthew Harding]

I will be moving taking the jaunt on I-35 to near Bethany, MO to check data and move from there. Likely to head N for some WF action.

[Charles Kuster]

Based on the 18Z data, I will move south towards Spirit Lake, Iowa.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I've never chased in MN before, so the first time I'll go it'll have to be a really obvious day--which this one ain't. I'm tempted to head to Onawa or SUX, but I can't really pull the trigger.

Early in this exercise, I liked Holton, KS but I have absolutely no confidence in my forecast this time. I don't see any two parameters lining up at the same time.

Altus looks good if I were south.

[Doug Mitchell]

Ick, I don't like this at all. I'm going to head south on 169 to Fort Dodge, IA and play the WF.

[S. McMullen]

If this is the day I think it is I'm hanging out in Stratford, IA and Woodward, IA. In fact I was hanging out in Stratford, IA that day.

[Dean Baron]

I think i may keep heading down 169 in to Iowa, maybe meet up and bs for a while with Josh. Like everyone else I dont see one area that really sticks out. hopefully later data will make it a little more obvious.

[Marc Austin]

Well, I'm coming into this one somewhat late in the game, so I suppose I have an unfair advantage, but my initial target was Omaha, NE area. After the most recent update, I would most likely head east on I80 into IA toward the warm front and keep my eye out for some convection within the warmsector, second guessing myself the whole way.

[Andrew Revering]

Speaking of which, Andy, would you kindly provide some CAPE/CINH indices on the next run?

I don't think I have any model data I'm going to be posting anymore, the rest will be observations, radar, satellite.

I will say that the model data on the first post of this thread is actually the RUC analysis valid when "the ***t hits the fan" (or not).

[Paul Austin]

I was busy outdoors all day, so this is a response to the 15z update. I haven't read beyond that point yet.

I'm gonna continue to hang out around Clinton, OK, hoping the cloud deck breaks and we get some sun to weaken the cap. I'm still favoring the dryline setup, but I could see this turn into a giant bust.

[Paul Austin]

Upon viewing the 18z data, I'm gonna hurry up and wait a little while longer. Cloud cover is burning off, dry line is developing, I can drift N or race S for adjustments. I would like to see surface winds backed a little and a more veered vertical wind profile, but I'm here now, so I'll sleep in the bed I made. I do think the juice will erode the cap and some nice storms will develop, but how soon before dark?

Edit: On second thought, it's already after 3pm CDT. If I'm gonna do much moving, it'll have to be soon. I think I'll drive the 1 hour 18 min drive down to Snyder, OK. Skies are a little more clear further south and I'll have more of a play on the existing dry line. CAPE has been progged to be much higher in TX by 0z as well. If skies continue to clear, I might head a little further south toward Electra, TX.

Edit: OK, I did this at about 4am, so sleep depravity and info overload led me to the conclusion that 18z is 3pm (just like a real chase scenario, after days in hotels with late nights and early mornings, LOL)- correction 1pm, but I'll stick to my original adjustment toward Electra, TX.

[Danny Neal]

Going to head south on 35 for a bit. I think Iowa is the better play. Gonna set up shop in Mason City for now.

[Adam Lucio]

Going to head south on 35 for a bit. I think Iowa is the better play. Gonna set bup shop in Mason City for now.

Im already here. Meet me at the local McDonalds.

[Paul Austin]

I just realized Marc and I are chasing separately today. Marc, how did you get so far north without me? You left me at the hotel without even discussing a target? Well, I guess one of us is gonna bust big (hopefully not both of us). I've got a sinking feeling about this. Good luck up in IA!

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm at subway in Ft Dodge,Ia

[Mike Peregrine]

Got held up at work this morning, but finally broke free and am steaming up to Denison, Iowa. The moisture and wind ahead of the CF in NE Kansas caught my eye, but it looks like there's enough CAPE in Iowa for something to happen. Cold core is another option. I probably should have gone with Currens today.

[Kevin Crawmer]

This is tough. I glanced at this the first day it was out and my first impression was Altus, OK. Right now I am thinking that maybe the Wichita area because of decent roads to get out of town. I am not buying the northern target right now because of the limited CAPE and lack of clear skies. I could be wrong though. I am going to stick with the Wichita area for now and make a move from there. I hope there is enough forcing for something to fire....moisture, CAPE, and decent shear appear to be there, although the winds appear to be backed more in IA/MN.

[scott r currens]

Got held up at work this morning, but finally broke free and am steaming up to Denison, Iowa. The moisture and wind ahead of the CF in NE Kansas caught my eye, but it looks like there's enough CAPE in Iowa for something to happen. Cold core is another option. I probably should have gone with Currens today.

As usual I got up and left way to early. I've been sitting in Summit, SD since 12z. :rolleyes: Next time I'll try to get to the target at a reasonable hour. LOL

The good news is that I expect a WW and CI in this area within the next 2-hours. I may have to drift east a little as the front is almost on top of me.

[Josh Richardson]

If this is the day I think it is I'm hanging out in Stratford, IA and Woodward, IA. In fact I was hanging out in Stratford, IA that day.

Its not that day, if I remember correctly(I was in Texas at the time though) temps were a bit cooler than what the surface obs are showing in this case. Also, 18z radar images of this case and that day dont match up either.

Oh by the way...I am still sitting in Algona...perfect spot to head south down 169 or west on 18 relatively quickly.

[Beau.Gjerdingen]

Lisbon, ND.... Sitting heating up in the dry slot all day, 55 degree dews sneaking up under the cool upper low. Currently sitting in a field enjoying the quiet and smell of manure.

[Brian Stertz]

Its going early...need to get in position in the Fort Dodge area. Low topped supercell magic is about to begin. Iowa is pretty notorious for these "show pony" type supercells.

[Corey Sloan]

Target: Wichita Falls, TX to Lawton, OK area.

Cloud cover will be the fly in the ointment but I like the dry line play. Other severe parameters look better in this area as well. I do believe there will be svr to the north along the cold front, but I am going to stay south and see what happens. I am smelling a big BUST potential on my target location but it will not be the first time. LOL

EDIT: Cloud cover may not be as big a problem as I anticipated near my target location.

[Andrew Revering]

21z Observations

21z Infrared Sat
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/21z/21zIR.jpg

21z Profiler
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/21z/21zProf.gif

21z Radar
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/21z/21zRAD.gif

21z Surface
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/21z/21zSFC_Big.gif

21z Visible Satellite
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/21z/21zVIS.jpg

[Mike Peregrine]

I should have known he'd pick a Minnesota day ... :)

[Jeff Duda]

Looks like the cold front is beginning to light up in SW MN. I'm in far SW IA hoping the line continues to ignite farther south. I'm currently looking for Highway 71 near Atlantic and will be heading north and east from there.

[Danny Neal]

Ah decisions decisions. I am right on the border of IA and MN. Do I bank on the line lighting up in NW IA or do I make an all or nothing push for SW MN......

The line looks to be from about Willmar down to Worthington MN. Since I am in Mason City I will drift west on US 18. By the time I get to the Spencer area I think I will be able to see something very interesting I hope.

[Josh Richardson]

Same thing for me, Im in position though to catch any of this in reasonable time really, drifting a tad north up to Hwy 9 and slowly heading to the west a little now. More towards a Spirit Lake area, I will have no problem jumping north if I need to from there.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

In Worthington, MN just watching the cells to my immediate west waiting for a cell to jump on, hopefully a tail-end charlie.

[Chris Allington]

I'm right on the front and heading east to stay ahead of the tail end of the developing line. Leaving Ida Grove and heading east twoards the Ft. Dodge/ Webster City area. I can reasonably intercept anything in the immediate area now.

[David Wolfson]

Ok, pretty much according to plan. My action area is on the IA border southwest of Albert Lea at 21Z. On the road from Dakota west on I-90 for Stewartville, MN, (south of Rochester) about 22Z. Re-evaluate there with likelihood of heading south to Spring Valley and Chester, IA, at 23Z.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

If I were out, I'd be willing to go to Panora, IA and stay on the front until I-35. A lot depends on what day of the week this was, since I'd be heading away from home and no telling if I have to work tomorrow.

[Chad Cowan]

I'm stimulating the local economy of Ortonville, MN, due west of MSP right on the SD border waiting for initiation. Looking at IR, there was a strong mid-level dry punch that mixed out the low clouds behind the overnight convection. I would expect to top the 65 degrees that is progged. This area has a great thermodynamic profile that isn't shown well with the forecast CAPE because of the low surface moisture. I'm banking on an intense string-of-pearls developing shortly before 0z as lift is enhanced in this left-front region of the 500mb jet streak.

They kicked me out of the Ortonville, MN gift shop for loitering and then a cop ran me out of town for 'stealin wifi' so I sat on a desolate farm road for a few hours, saw the tower go up just to my south and blasted ahead of it. I'm now 30 miles away from my target hoping that the storm I'm on remains the dominant one.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/544/81012971xq0.jpg

[Adam Lucio]

Im also heading west on 18. Since the "show" has begun I probably wont be targeting any city, just going after what I think looks best. At this point Ill be happy to get some hail and hear the sound of thunder. Central OK looks like a crapshoot now so I feel better in my target choice. The cold front on this system really is a beast. ANy chance down south seems to be in NC texas and I wouldnt have made it that far, so given my circumstances I made the better decision I think

[Verne Carlson]

I'm parked in Worthington, MN with Michael - watching the line of cells waiting to see which one takes over and dominates.

[Mike Peregrine]

I guess I had time to make it up to the Windom-Lake Crystal, MN area.

(and LOL @ Chad for getting caught stealing WiFi)

[Scott Weberpal]

I'm beginning to think this day will have quasi-severe low topped storms racing northeast at 50 mph. Good thing I'm only 3.5 hours from home!

I'll probably head south a little into Iowa where the better instability is.

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm going to drive west out of Fort Dodge, IA and just hope that the storms continue to develop further south.

[John Farley]

After initially getting suckered east by the early stuff, I am passing back through New Ulm on the way west to intercept the broken line that looks like it will be the main show. Would like to be on the strong cell near Granite Falls (It's not THAT day, is it?), but I won't be able to intercept it as it races NE, so I will hope for something farther down the line. Proceeding west to around Lamberton or Sanborn.

[Kevin Crawmer]

I'm watching bluebirds in Kansas and waiting for the next flight out of Wichita for Minnesota!

[Brian Stertz]

I am going to drift out to the northeast of Fort Dodge...looks like a line of back building low topped supercells to my northwest that I need to get ahead of asap.

[Michael P. Morris]

Well, my wife and I decided to go visit her parents in Burkburnett, Texas. We are waiting for the developing low to track in our direction, and sitting with our feet in their pool, constantly refreshing satellite.

[Shane Adams]

Looks like my target busted...so I'll be heading south now towards Lawton, OK, with possible adjustments west from there. I'm not a fan of running scared to the action area once my forecast fails, but I think I've got enough time for a leisurely drive south to adjust and possibly catch a late-day show east of that surface LOW track in NW Texas. I should be in Lawton by 0Z.

[Matthew Harding]

I will be enroute to Wells, MN to intercept the broken line to the west.

[Dean Baron]

I'm racing back towards Minnesota. Target is Redwood Falls, hoping for some backbuilding or an OFB to spark another storm farther south towards the IA/MN border since i'm an hour or two from my target. Depending on storm motion, I may head east towards my original target of Mankato, MN, unless of course we get another storm to fire on my way north.

[Andrew Revering]

I'm really enjoying watching people drive to; from and through cities that will get rocked by tornadoes shortly....

...and don't always assume you're in the right state!

am I giving you hints or leading you astray... we'll find out tomorrow.

[Darin Brunin]

I am going to move just a tad east to Fergas Falls, MN and will wait a few scans to see if something will develop further north along the boundary or if I should blast SE on I-94.

[Andrew Revering]

00z Observation Data

00z Surface
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/00z/0zSFC_big.gif

23z Infrared Satellite
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/00z/23zIR.jpg

23z Radar
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/00z/23zRAD.gif

23z Visible Satellite
http://www.f5data.net/case/1/00z/23zVIS.jpg

[Danny Neal]

I stopped in Algona, IA after noticing explosive development just to my south near Ft. Dodge, will be all over this as it moves N-NE.

[Chris Allington]

Staying on the new convection around the Fort Dodge, IA area!

[Darin Brunin]

Hopefully that line just to my south is doing something and I am watching a tornado right now. Those storms are small enough that I can't really tell if they are crap or putting down hoses. It might be hard to see them in the fog if I go much further east :p

[Adam Lucio]

Zipping south on 169 now....kicking myself in the head for letting myself get suckered into going north when I knew better. At this point its a cat-n-mouse game with the ongoing development...

[Scott Weberpal]

I don't think there'll be explosive development anywhere with this low cape system. Looks like one of those days where the super kinematics have to compensate the the lack of cape. Too bad we don't have forecast 0-3km cape maps, that's where I'd be :)

[Michael O'Keeffe]

After drifting east watching the initial convection east with little luck, we saw the storm exploding near Ft. Dodge and blasted south down US169 to highway 9 where we plan on heading east and then blasting south on US69 and going to try and intercept the storm near Ft. Dodge. We will likely be a bit late to the show, but we are trying.

[Jeff Duda]

Oh, son of a $%*!#

Shoulda stayed in NE KS where I was. Nice stuff popping along the cold front 3 hours to my south. Want to head back, but committed to the stuff that has just gone up in NW IA.

[Chad Cowan]

I don't think there'll be explosive development anywhere with this low cape system. Looks like one of those days where the super kinematics have to compensate the the lack of cape. Too bad we don't have forecast 0-3km cape maps, that's where I'd be :)

From the first post: http://www.f5data.net/case/1/Models/ruc00z3kmmlcape.png

That's a big reason I'm up in Minnesota.

[Dennis Dennison]

I am leaving joplin and going up t6o Pittsburg Ks -wait and see-i think the two small looking cells will head far enough south to hit that mouisture about the tim the front comes thru

[Mike Peregrine]

...and don't always assume you're in the right state!

am I giving you hints or leading you astray... we'll find out tomorrow.

Well, since I'm sitting in Windom, Minnesota, there's no doubt in my mind there will be a wild and crazy tornado roaring through the northeast Kansas countryside imminently. If this were a realistic representation of reality, that is exactly what would happen. Eh ... I'm going to get out the frisbee and watch the pretty clouds until something more certain shows up. Calling Brunin to tell me what he's seeing ...

[Dennis Sherrod]

Well, since I'm sitting in Windom, Minnesota, there's no doubt in my mind there will be a wild and crazy tornado roaring through the northeast Kansas countryside imminently. If this were a realistic representation of reality, that is exactly what would happen. Eh ... I'm going to get out the frisbee and watch the pretty clouds until something more certain shows up. Calling Brunin to tell me what he's seeing ...

Mike stay out of the mud. I am still digging that hardened rock mud off.

[Mike Peregrine]

Mike stay out of the mud. I am still digging that hardened rock mud off.

lol ... well it's been raining off and on here in Windom and there's a road closure up ahead, but I can take a quick little shortcut on a short patch of mud (don't worry, I think I can do it this time) ... better keep that cell phone handy just in case. ;)

EDIT - - - what is UP with this monster mosquitoes in Minnesota anyway??? Someone remind me to pack some Off next time ...

[Josh Richardson]

Well should have stayed in Algona but I only drifted about 20 mins out of my way, blasting back toward the SE again now dropping south of 18 and then heading east on Hwy 3 towards Clarion from there I will intercepting the cell heading into the Ft. Dodge region as it moves.

[Darin Brunin]

Calling Brunin to tell me what he's seeing ...

I am back in North Dakota on a cell that I am racing up I-29 near Bismarck. Shortly after seeing 10 tornadoes on the storm in MN I decided I wanted to stick to my original target just east of the surface low and seem to be on a decent little storm now per my laptop radar that only allows me a national view. Although with daylight ending soon it seems as if the chase is almost over...damn diurnal setups.

All of this is true except the 10 tornadoes part :p

[Mike Peregrine]

All of this is true except the 10 tornadoes part :p

Well, if this was a real day, you would be seeing ten tornadoes while I play frisbee and get pulled out of a ditch by Dennis. So if you told me you saw ten, I would believe it. I'm eyeing that dingaling cell that popped up near Topeka down there ... phooey.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

After reviewing the 23Z-00Z info, I'm still going to make my stand in Panora.

[Darin Brunin]

The sad part is...I don't remember any day in the last 8 years where there's been an isolated cell in ne KS that's produced any kind of worthwhile tornado, with a couple of exceptions, and this sure isn't May 4th or May 8th in 2003.

Hopefully we don't have to make the 8 hour drive home after watching a storm put down a tornado less than an hour from home lol. I think the cold front will light up soon though from IA to TX in a big linear mess.

[Mike Peregrine]

hey ... good point ... I think you're right ... that CF stuff isn't going to amount to anything worthwhile. Actually, I don't remember any day like that either - I'm staying put and hoping for the best. Will get some good lightning shots if anything.

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm tailing the stuff that just went up in NW IA back towards Ft. Dodge.

[Marc Austin]

Heading north on I35 toward Ft Dodge, IA. Hoping these cells are more impressive than they look on the national mosaic. I do think cells will continue to fire further south moving toward evening with a weakening cap over more southern chase terrain. I'm anxious to see what the storm reports reveal in IA for this case.

Paul, sorry I had to leave you behind but your recent run of bad luck has left me no choice but to venture out on my own. I had to sneak out while you were sleeping at the Vagabond Motel and have been driving all night frantically to get from Clinton, OK to Omaha, NE. It's been a long damn night! I hope this pays off. Good luck to you! I'm hoping to bag my first tornado in Iowa!
__________________

[David Wolfson]

On reaching Stewartsville at 22Z and checking the good radar and sat loops (not the tiny little ones that Revering guy doles out every three hours ;)) the dance of forces seemed to be heading more toward me, so I held in this vicinity. I'm with the higher DBZ isolated echo on the 23:30 radar that shows a divergent 'v' indication on the 23Z IR sat. That's my show and I'm sticking to it. Hopefully it won't drag me into MSP or across the Mississippi.

[Corey Sloan]

Holding tight in Wichita Falls, TX.

[Kevin Crawmer]

Well no flights to MN from Wichita. I guess I will stay put and keep my eyes to the north and see if things can develop a little further SW. Looks like some after dark fireworks.

[Bob Hartig]

Also staying put in Wichita Falls. I like what's happening with the dryline/triple-point to my west, and these backing surface winds have got me feeling a lot happier.

[Robert Edmonds]

Heading from the eastern KS NE border to the cells south... fortunately I said I would hang south of the border.

[Paul Austin]

Racing west along US 62 now toward Childress, TX, watching for any sign of towers going up along the way to adjust positioning along the dry line. I'd like to see stronger upper level winds in this area, but I'm happy surface winds have picked up a bit and with a potential for at least a little backing with the development of a partial warm front/stationary front type boundary with the approaching low. I'm also happy to be north along the dry line as I'm not a big fan of the steeper dewpoint depressions further south. I'm quite pleased with the clearing skies, hopefully not too little - too late. Now if we can get enough lift along the dryline, perhaps a little magic can happen within an area from Childress to Vernon to Wichita Falls to Seymour to Paducah area before dark...or a blue sky bust.

I see lots of potential for the northern targets, but I'm happy to be a little less crouded in the clear air down here. I'll take my chances today.

Maybe my luck is about to change, Marc...and yours as well ;)

[Andrew Revering]

Too bad we don't have forecast 0-3km cape maps, that's where I'd be :)

Actually you do... It's the 30th map on the first post of this thread... titled: 00z 3km MLCAPE

[Scott Weberpal]

Actually you do... It's the 30th map on the first post of this thread... titled: 00z 3km MLCAPE

Yup, caught it after someone informed me of it about 20 posts back ;)

I still don't know where to go, lol!

[Andrew Revering]

Yup, caught it after someone informed me of it about 20 posts back ;)

Yah, sorry about that. I should have read all the posts before replying.

[Paul Austin]

Looking more and more like a classic bust for me with only a couple hours of daylight left and no convection in sight. I made it to Childress with time to turn more toward Paducah, but my faith in this dry line setup is almost gone. Perhaps a cell will fire and at least give me a nice after dark light show, but even that would be disappointing. I will wait around and maybe drift back toward the east if I see something going up.

[Mike Peregrine]

Yeah, well earlier I realized I'm an idiot and why this couldn't be the day I was thinking of ... even though the boundaries are lining up pretty similar, I'm way off on instability for that day. So I'll just be the sole blip off by himself on Spotter Network that everyone laughs at for having the targeting skills of your average 4th grade short bus candidate. Think I'll take some pictures of cows. Don't be jealous ...

[Chris Lott]

Still holding tight in Woodward.

[Andrea Griffa]

Still holding tight in Woodward.

I don't want to change position: still sitting in Ft.Dodge,Ia.

[Shane Adams]

Made good time and got to Lawton before 0Z. Now cruising west on US62 towards Altus and Hollis, hoping for something east of that surface LOW.

[Andrew Revering]

I wasted WAY too much time putting this map together. but regardless, here it is... the map of everyone's location to the best of my knowledge at this point:

http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/widescreen/54047

I won't be editing it further, this is just stupid to be wasting so much time on this! :)

[Mike Peregrine]

I won't be editing it further, this is just stupid to be wasting so much time on this! :)

Not getting the map to work here for some reason, but this is fun and you know it ... ;)

[Darren Addy]

Well, I've got to believe that my Hiawatha, KS choice put me in good shape to notice those big storms going up in extreme NE Kansas. Hope I picked the one that will produce! Now trying to figure out how to stay close and still get a river crossing.

[Patrick Martin]

Based on seeing just the 21z update: Arrived in Alva right about 21z. As I was coming east on hwy 64, knew I was still behind the front. Gassed up, grabbed some quick food on the go, took a look at the update. Going to try and position ahead of the surface low as that is likely my only play for today. Am now heading south on hwy 281 to Hobart OK. Should be there shortly before 0z. I have a sinking feeling that not leaving the house until 7am MDT (13z) is going to leave me trying to chase from behind.

Now off to check out the 0z update.

[scott r currens]

I'm at Stewart, MN trying to stay ahead off the line mini supercells that have produced several photogenic tornadoes. Oh wait, that might have been fog on my window. I guess I don't have any clue what I have seen.

Is it time for the results yet?

[Patrick Martin]

After the 0z update: Made Hobart just before 0z, and given my position relative to remaining daylight, going to stay put. Can not reasonably make a major reposition of more than perhaps 40 miles before dark, so I'll wait with with the hope that something fires in my vicinity, otherwise it will have been a marathon drive for not.

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm at Stewart, NM trying to stay ahead off the line mini supercells that have produced several photogenic tornadoes.

Are you using a chase teleporter these days? Pretty slick trick to get from North Dakota to New Mexico. I guess this has been going on long enough for us to pretty much retarget anywhere and make it before the event. Let's hear the results and see our bad decisions for the day -

EDIT - thanks for the work you did on this Andrew .... Lots of fun-

[Chad Cowan]

I wasted WAY too much time putting this map together. but regardless, here it is... the map of everyone's location to the best of my knowledge at this point:

http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/widescreen/54047

I won't be editing it further, this is just stupid to be wasting so much time on this! :)


That link doesn't work, use this one: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/export/54047

Why did it take so long to put the map together? It took me about 20 seconds to add each person.

So does the winner of this Chase Case win a lifetime subscription to F5Data? :D

[John Farley]

I'm now on the back road east of Truman, MN heading east to cut south to Winnebago to intercept the isolated cell indicated by radar near Fairmont, MN. I will likely do or die with this cell, as it seems to be my last, best chance. Wishing now that I had joined the Iowa crowd.

As it is getting toward evening, I am also trying to avoid Minnesota's state bird, the mosquito! Yes, they ARE bigger in Minnesota! Mosquitos, I mean.

[Bob Hartig]

I wasted WAY too much time putting this map together. but regardless, here it is... the map of everyone's location to the best of my knowledge at this point:

http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/widescreen/54047

I won't be editing it further, this is just stupid to be wasting so much time on this! :)

You forgot me! I'm in Wichita Falls. If it's a hassle to add me, don't worry about it.

[Dann Cianca]

I'm a bit late to the punch again, but I'll try and go through my thoughts. When the first info was posted, I immediately though, this would be a day that something strange happened, so that sort of polluted my brain.

I thought Minnesota immediately, maybe around Morris.

Then as later updates came out, I shifted farther south and a bit to the east. Maybe Fairmont, Minnesota.

[Andrew Revering]

Why did it take so long to put the map together? It took me about 20 seconds to add each person.

20 seconds x 45 people = 15 minutes... thats a long time to me.

So does the winner of this Chase Case win a lifetime subscription to F5Data? :D

Sadly no. I'm not feeling that generous.

[Andrew Revering]

You forgot me! I'm in Wichita Falls. If it's a hassle to add me, don't worry about it.

I think you are there. Its just that there are multiple people there and you're underneath someone else. Look for your name in the list.

This is where I spent some time on the maps too... around Fort Dodge I went back and moved everyone slightly away from others in Fort Dodge so you could tell there were multiple people there... After I spent so much time doing that for one city, I gave up on the rest.

[Andrew Revering]

"Case 3"; The results show!

http://www.f5data.net/case/1/stormreports.gif

There are several of you that NAILED Fort Dodge, IA pretty early on, and I tip my hat to you. Very nicely done. The tornadoes in MN certainly were to some degree correlating with the high low level instability (3km MLCAPE). I think for me the two things to note in this case were certainly that low level instability in Minnesota, but also the nose of the 500mb winds in Iowa... for me, you just aren't going to get much action if your mid level winds are under 30 knots, so that pretty much sealed the deal for me to be in the Upper Midwest, or certainly in Iowa specifically.

Good job everyone. Who's doing the next one?

EDIT: I just noticed a tornado by Seattle. Nobody wanted to chase Seattle?

[Danny Neal]

Sweet! I didn't bust, my original target of N IA was spot on! Good work Andy!

[Shane Adams]

Another day I didn't really chase....no wonder I'm bombing these.

[Chris Allington]

I'm in the opposite boat... I get these but suck at real chasing haha.

[Paul Austin]

I see lots of potential for the northern targets, but I'm happy to be a little less crouded in the clear air down here. I'll take my chances today.

Maybe my luck is about to change, Marc...and yours as well ;)

Marc, you were smart to ditch me in Clinton. The only thing worse than busting is busting alone while nearly everyone else scores. I take my earlier statement about being less crowded back. In hindsight I guess I would have wished to be with the crowd on this day. But I knew I was taking a chance.

Congrats on all who bagged today. Thanks, Andrew, for the Case. It was fun.

[Verne Carlson]

I'm parked in Worthington, MN with Michael - watching the line of cells waiting to see which one takes over and dominates. I'm going to say I was caught in the middle with tornadoes north and south but me in the middle. That never happens to anyone! ;)

[Damon Scott Hynes]

This was a Wednesday, I wouldn't have chased this day no matter the setup. If I had, Panora, IA wasn't that far out of position.

BTW, this day was the 25th anniversary of the Mount Saint Helens directed blast eruption:rolleyes:

[Jeff Duda]

Thanks for doing this, Andrew. It was nice to practice the skills I've learned in the classroom and in actual situations.

[Bob Hartig]

Gee, I guess the SPC neglected to log the big wedge 30 miles west of Wichita Falls.

What's that? You say there wasn't a wedge?

Oh. I thought there was a wedge. Nutz. Looks like I busted.

Still a blast, though, and a great way to while away the winter. Thanks, Andy--great job!

[Brian Stertz]

This was the NWS DMX write up on the tornadoes that day:

Tornado moved from Calhoun County into Webster County. It moved through mostly open country and have a very intermittent track from Slifer on northeast. Damage occurred to several grain bins, then tornado lifted for some time with another tornado forming over Hamilton County. The frontal boundary from Nebraska moved into western Iowa during the evening hours. The airmass was unstable, but not overly so. CAPE values were around 1500 J/kg with Lifted Indices around -2. There was about 45 kts of effective shear in place. A few thunderstorms developed ahead of the boundary with one of the cells becoming severe. The first tornado occurred in Calhoun County at 2358 UTC where the tornado dropped into a farm field between York ave and Zearing Ave south of 320th St. about 2 miles north of Farnhamville. The tornado was an F1 tornado as it crossed the intersection of Zearing and 320th St. IT destroyed dome outbuildings north of the intersection and continued moving northeast toward Slifer in Webster County. The tornado remained on the ground crossing the Calhoun/Webster County line crossing County Road D46 between Zebulon Ave and County Road P29. The tornado destroyed three grain bins and just missed a farm. Debris was tossed over several hundred yards before the tornado weakened and lifted for the first time prior to reaching Slifer. The F1 tornado was on the ground for about 4 miles during this time with F1 strength and a width of 50 to 100 yards. The tornado was reported on the ground very intermittently from this point on with numerous reports southwest of Callender, northeast through the Woodman Hol State preserve and into the Brushy Creek State Reserve. At this point, the tornado lifted. The parent storm continued into Hamilton County. A brief touchdown was reported in Hamilton County north of Blairsburg. No damage was reported and the tornado roped out quickly.

[Dennis Sherrod]

UH, I don't know. I would give myself a 50/50 on this one. I was about 90-120 miles away. Depending what time they came through, I might or might not have made it. 90 maybe, 120 miles away, maybe not.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Sounds like I would have been just a bit late to the show. O well.

[Dean Baron]

Hmm, it would've been a stretch for me to get to those tornadoes up somewhere west of Wilmar, MN, but I probably could've made it. Thanks for doin this Andrew!

[John Farley]

I'm going to say I was caught in the middle with tornadoes north and south but me in the middle. That never happens to anyone! ;)

Well, it happened to me, too, Verne. And it also happens to me more than I like in real life :mad:.

Looks like that cell I saw up near Granite Falls but could not get to did produce - other than that, nothing in MN. Time to head back to New Ulm one more time for a cold one!

Thanks for putting this together, Andrew.

[Marc Austin]

Well I guess I got lucky this time. Usually I'll play it further south, but the high temps down there made me skeptical of the cap ever eroding. This was a lot of fun! I can't wait for another. Thanks Andrew!

Paul, at least half of the team saw something today. Not sure who the Danish guys were with. I'll meet you halfway in Witchita and we can talk about tomorrows setup.

[Dann Cianca]

Hmmm ... started in Morris, MN and then went south and east (toward Fairmont) ... although on the way I would have probably stuck on the developing storms and watched the tornados cross the highway (US 12) I was on ...

Should I give myself that one?

[Andrea Griffa]

Ehi Iowa went crazy! Thanks Andrew for this enjoyable case. Congratulations on all the chasers who nailed the tubes. I'm at outback in Ft.Dodge, I'm looking for someone who want to join my group and have a steak with us.

[Michael P. Morris]

Oh well. Nothing to see here, but I can go back to the in-laws and have a drink and crash instead of making the drive back home.

[Dennis Dennison]

Well I missed the boat-the storms I thought might produce only put down 1" hail and not as far south as I had hoped--I may have been able to get near to them, but it was a bUST here. Maybe some decent CU pics.

[Josh Richardson]

Well I started off the day in Southern MN but thankfully abandoned that and kept drifting south down 169 all day which put me in perfect position.

Oddly enough, I dont even remember this day at all for some reason.

[David Wolfson]

Well, none for me, and the 1,000 mile drive back. Thermodynamics won the day, while I was banking more on aerodynamics. Also I like to mull over all the surface obs and realize I incorrectly discounted the surface analysis because it showed only a few stations at large scale. Usually I reeely like triple-points.

Thanks also, Andrew, for taking the time and effort to put this together!

[Patrick Martin]

Ooof, major bust!!! Congrats to those that nailed it.

Andrew thanks for pulling this together. It was fun.

[John Farley]

Well, none for me, and the 1,000 mile drive back. Thermodynamics won the day, while I was banking more on aerodynamics. Also I like to mull over all the surface obs and realize I incorrectly discounted the surface analysis because it showed only a few stations at large scale. Usually I reeely like triple-points.

I made that mistake, too. As I sit here in New Ulm sipping my beer, I am thinking that a related thing that threw me was the initial surface analysis showing the "warm front" in Minnesota and the later ones putting it back down in IA. With few stations on the surface analysis, it was hard to tell whether the placement of the WF was correct, and I had my doubts about whether the front would really have retrograded south that much. I guess it did.

[JF Massicotte]

My starting target was about 90 miles to the NE at 12Z... I suppose there is about 60% chance I would have taken the right decision to aim for 3-pt to my SW and 40% I would have ended up with Verne with tornadoes to my N and S...

Wasn't there to finish the exercise so let's see next time. Thank you for posting a hard case like that... Very good challenge!

[Robert Edmonds]

Probably saw some hail and wind in KS. It was atleast not a clear sky bust. Probably some good structure out of it all.

[Mike Peregrine]

Since my goal these days is just to be in the same state with a tornado after targeting, I feel this was a highly highly successful virtual event and all my goals were achieved flawlessly. Thanks again for the fun - -

[Darin Brunin]

hey ... good point ... I think you're right ... that CF stuff isn't going to amount to anything worthwhile. Actually, I don't remember any day like that either - I'm staying put and hoping for the best. Will get some good lightning shots if anything.

Sure enough...on May 18, 2005 I chased the crappy KS storm that we were making fun of lol. It looked good for all of about 2 minutes until it got undercut by the CF.

[Brian Stertz]

Yep got the tube so steak dinner in order Andrea. Wondering when/where next chase will be??

[Mike Peregrine]

Sure enough...on May 18, 2005 I chased the crappy KS storm that we were making fun of lol. It looked good for all of about 2 minutes until it got undercut by the CF.

LOLOL ... that is just too awesome. I went back and looked because I figured I was probably on it too, but can't find anything about it - must have sat it out. I have no memory of this day at all for some reason.

[Bob Hartig]

...for me the two things to note in this case were certainly that low level instability in Minnesota, but also the nose of the 500mb winds in Iowa... for me, you just aren't going to get much action if your mid level winds are under 30 knots, so that pretty much sealed the deal for me to be in the Upper Midwest, or certainly in Iowa specifically.

The H5 jet was one of the things that nagged at me even as I opted for West Texas. From the initial maps, it looked like I might see 35 kt 500s edge into the area out of New Mexico, but I didn't feel confident about it, and the weak mid-levels overall were a concern. Another concern was the cap. I think I was in the right place to be if things down there had fired, but from the looks of it, I wound up sitting under a hot, sticky blue sky.

This was a good opportunity to learn from my mistakes. I was a hair's breadth from starting in Albert Lea instead of Hollister, OK. I've gotten one or two concepts reinforced. Nice to have a chance to troubleshoot my reasonings without burning all that gas on a bust chase.

[Scott Weberpal]

I'm working on chase case #4 and should have it up later this evening.

[Dann Cianca]

I'm working on chase case #4 and should have it up later this evening.


Scott, I'm chomping at the bit!!! :)