Chase Case #6

[Dustin Wilcox]

With the current chase nearing its climax, it’s not too early to start thinking about the next chase. This chase case presents a “typical” chase day, it’s not a gigantic outbreak and you’ll likely have to work hard to earn that steak dinner, though there will be some treats out there for those who happen to play things right… No need to rush things, I won't give a 15-18Z Update until later Monday evening, and then 20Z updates will be added around midday Tuesday, with 0Z updates and final results Tuesday Evening…
I didn’t want to fill the thread with images so the following link contains the 12Z information….
http://severechase.com/stcc.html

I hope this map deal works…
http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/54216

[Andrew Revering]

Unfortunately the SPC 13z map shows the lightning strikes for the next 24 hours, so it gives us some idea of what happened... but with that said, stuff is everywhere so its kind of like deciding which areas are just crap storms and which are chasable, tornadic storms.

I think my eye spent a lot of time with the upper level system to the north, but with very limited moisture, instability, ongoing morning convection, items being out of phase, etc. I quickly discounted the northern chase.

I'm going to head to Midland, TX in hopes of better instability and shear for organized storms via a dryline or some upglide.

[Kevin Crawmer]

I am waking up in Omaha, NE and having coffee and a stale bagel at a cheap hotel. I have a full tank of gas and my car and I am thinking about heading northwest.

[Danny Neal]

Running a little short on time right now so this won't be as detailed as I would like to make it. Being from Chicago, I believe my best chance for severe weather is heading west on 80 into Nebraska. The upper levels show divergence, some decent surface winds , and doable moisture. The early moisture has moved out of the area, leaving some breaks in the clouds which should boost instability a little but nothing even worth considering modest. It is a long shot for Nebraska/South Dakota to have sustained supercells and tornadoes based on the 12Z. But a 16 hour drive round trip is easier to handle than an 30+ hour one to SW TX

[Michael O'Keeffe]

My dad and I drove down to Denton, TX the night before and stayed with family anticipating a chase today. We are initially targeting Midland, TX as well. Looks like a good W Texas event.

[Verne Carlson]

I'm leaving Denver and heading up to central NE where there's good h500 diffluent flow, ample moisture and a weak surface low. Initial target: North Platte, NE

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Is that some bad data on the 700 north of Cuba? Lot of lightning there, too...

I might be heading to GRI and wait for the 1630Z, or wait until then and decide.

[Greg McLaughlin]

My initial thought is to head west on HWY 412 to Woodward, OK. I have quite a bit of doubt as to what is going to happen this day. My idea is to be in Woodward around noon which will give me plenty of time to adjust west/north/south with the next update.

Moisture is bottled up over Texas, and despite the negative tilt trough which often draws moisture quickly, I am still concerned about moisture return to the north. Because of this I am reluctant to head further north at this point. I am hoping from Woodward I will have enough time to head further north if moisture return appears to be sufficient by 18z. With meridinal flow from central Kansas north I will likely play the dryline near the periphery of the base of the trough where mid-level flow will be more southwesterly.

[Adam Lucio]

Since this is virtual Im going to start in Amarillo, TX. Ive never chased TX so lets see if I get lost or not. The AMA sounding was a little better than most and the lapse rates are maxed along with a better chance for some CAPE.

If this were real life I may sit this one out.

[Derek Weston]

Ideally... SW OK......(based on 300/500/850) realistically... somewhere a little west of 80/Omaha in Nebraska.

[Matthew Fischer]

well taking a look at things looking at the early morning soundings, big curved hodo's in oax, oun, and top. with lapse rates being high all around, also the low 700mb temps to the north will be an early show to the north of i-80. There be more discrete cells to the south of i-80 today. So i'm going to start my day off in Wichita, KS. Wake up around 10 am have a good breakfast then head out with the new data that will come in later to either had north alittle or south.

[Patrick Martin]

Starting the day (as I normally would) north of Denver, and will make the drive up I-76/I-80 to North Platte, NE, sit, and wait on 18z data.

[Brian Stertz]

Think I am going to hang out west of Sioux Falls SD on I-90. Looks like strong directional shear and just the right amount of moisture pooling along the boundary. The elevated morning convection surely is a prime signal that later on...things may get interesting. This is especially true with the first negatively tilted wave lifting out leaving subsidence and eventual clearing by afternoon and strong shear in place.

[Dennis Dennison]

For me-I wasn't able to gather enough info for myself. However I think the moisture down in Texas is going to get drawn up into Kansas, and there interact with the moving air--So I am leaving Kenesaw, Ne and going to Pratt, Ks. Eat some lunch at Sonic.

[Corey Sloan]

INITIAL TARGET: Sioux City, IA

Like the Dp's, the lapse rates, wind profiles, capping and the weak low in WY....as well as the promise of some outflow boundaries after the morning MCS just to the north.....just not up to a TX chase today....will check data when I arrive in beautiful Sioux City :) Most likely not a real chase day for me.

[scott r currens]

I'm leaving Denver and heading up to central NE where there's good h500 diffluent flow, ample moisture and a weak surface low. Initial target: North Platte, NE

I think I'll meet up with Verne in North Platte, NE. The 12z data looks very familiar but I haven't figured out the date yet. The 500mb charts look similar to Brady, NE May 17, 2000. Maybe I'll know the date when I see the 18z update.

http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/50012.gif

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/000517/500-oa-12.gif

[Joel Wright]

I'll stay down in Kansas closer to the deeper moisture. I'll start our in Great Bend Kansas.

[Dean Baron]

I'll head down I35 and jump west on I90 towards Sioux Falls, SD ready to readjust from there. The SPC outlook really helps.:rolleyes: I'll sit in Sioux Falls till the 18z update before I make any major adjustments.

[Mike Ridgeway]

I think I'll play the dryline with this system. Hoping to get some isolated supercells. So a good start will be Childress, TX. I remember staying in a cheap motel there back in the 90's, so that's where I'll be.

[Brian Stertz]

Nope Scott...no Brady NE tornado day here on this one. But this does look familiar to me :confused:

[Bob Hartig]

Guymon, OK, for me. I'm torn between Amarillo and Dodge City, so this is my compromise. I can see the dryline setting up in Texas, but I'm not experienced enough with dryline chasing to know how well the Td contours will tighten up in Kansas. Assuming they do, I may head north, but here is a good place to hang for now.

[Dann Cianca]

Seeing the lightning definitely polluted my line of thinking. Originally I was thinking SW Nebraska (not the panhandle) ... but now I want some of that Montana action. I really want to chase SE MT ... but I'll take Hayes Center, Nebraska.

[John Farley]

Ignoring the lightning data I would not have ahead of time, my target would probably be the OK panhandle. I like the upper divergence, directional shear, and the sharp dryline that will be moving into this area from NM.

[Marc Austin]

I think I'm going to start the day in Perryton, TX. This will allow me to easily chase into the TX Panhandle or western/central KS. This is another baffling case and I can't wait to see the results. Those slight risk days are sometimes the most rewarding and surprising.

I see marginal dews over most of the map and with fairly weak surface winds over the southern plains, I don't expect too much more moisture to advect northward, but I don't think 60's dews are unreasonable by late afternoon as far north as the OK/KS border. Although soundings for OUN look good now, clouds from early convection will most likely hinder the amount of CAPE by late afternoon. I'm betting something fires from SW KS into the central TX/OK panhandles. I will grab some breakfast and await the 18Z update to see if I need to scream northward or southward.

[Marc Austin]

Since this is virtual Im going to start in Amarillo, TX. Ive never chased TX so lets see if I get lost or not. The AMA sounding was a little better than most and the lapse rates are maxed along with a better chance for some CAPE.

If this were real life I may sit this one out.

You probably won't get lost as long as you stay away from Wichita Falls, TX:). We've gotten lost in that town on more than two occasions, and the last two times, we've had GPS!:p Texas offers some of the best chase terrain, but don't get down into the hill country.

[David Wolfson]

I just have a feeling that upper subsidence in the wake of the honking vortmax rotating up from eastern CO is going to squash some of the action in the southern high Plains. The short wave hanging back over western AZ may be a good sign in a few days, but not today.

Also the synoptics in eastern WY/MT and the western Dakotas have pretty good cold-core potential for later IMO, with all levels pretty well closed off (except the 700Mb, which I suspect is, too, but escaping the analysis). The surface low is in extreme northwest SD with nicely backed winds through the central and eastern Dakotas plus dews well up in the fifties -- almost as good as way down in OK and TX. I want to stay south of the front in far south ND angling east-southeast into northeast SD, where daytime heating will have a chance to work. The ABR sounding isn't half bad when you add a bit of mid-level cooling, daytime heating, and somewhat higher upper wind speeds -- all of which should occur later.

So my morning starting point is really hanging out there in the sticks, at Mobridge, SD. Fortunately I don't have to worry about the drive back to OK and TX.

[Jim Tang]

Going up north to N Platte, NE. Marginal moisture days typically don't work out if you're very far south of the base of the trough. LLJ a bit veered too. But am willing to change on a whim pending further data... tough case.

[Mike Peregrine]

The lower instability/TDs combined with UL winds make me think this may be an earlier spring day. I'm also targeting southwestern Nebraska at this point, but I'm going to McCook because I don't want to be like everyone else, and because my options are good there.

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm starting from Guymon,Ok: moisture is gonna rising up, shear is already nice, there's no a terrible cap, I will have a dry line, I love those zones; what do you want more?...It could be a nice place to start.

[Matt Gingery]

Based on 12 Z soundings, I imagine that things begin to destabilize more rapidly in the warm sector across S and Central Texas. Personally I would take my chances and head somewhere from Wichita Falls Tx to San Antonio. I would want to get out ahead of the system and hang out in Wichita Falls to wait for the dominant storm. Although Nebraska looks good, maybe hang in Lincoln until storms initiate. I don't base a whole lot on 12z soundings. I base alot off the soundings to get me in the general area, but the visible satellite is my baby when I am in the Lions Den. MLCAPE looks more favorable across the S. Texas area, but by 15z I am sure the energy rapidly pushes north. So, I would be in Wichita Falls Tx, storms line up SW to NE and if it looks bad north, it is much easier to head south to intercept.

[Brian Stertz]

Need some 18z data bad. Timing of the second neg. tilted wave will be critical. I may be too far to the northeast and under large scale subsidence behind that first strong wave. I am considering a trip down into Nebraska towards Ord area and will have to make that commitment soon.

[Dustin Wilcox]

You can't have 18Z data at 10:30 in the morning... Some 18Z data will be posted at about 18Z... The 15Z RUC is in though...

[Charles Kuster]

I will start in Alma, Nebraska and wait for the 18Z data. I am not a fan of the marginal moisture, but it should improve at least somewhat as the day progresses.

[Michael P. Morris]

Looks to me based on the morning data and the instability profile that Northwest Kansas will be the place to start out. I woke up really early this morning to get on the road to Goodland, KS, but will have time to change my target en route based on the data that comes out later.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Some new 18Z information, including a couple 9hr charts from a mock 15Z RUC...

http://severechase.com/stcc18.html

[Joel Wright]

Thanks for the 18z update.

Based on that I'll be leaving Great Bend KS and head north to Hays KS. I really like the surface convergence in that area and it's juxtaposed south of the 500mb jet streak. I'd like to see dews a bit higher but overall this setup looks okay.

[Andrea Griffa]

Some new 18Z information, including a couple 9hr charts from a mock 15Z RUC...

http://severechase.com/stcc18.html

After 18Z data update I decide to stay put in Liberal,Ks and wait for the next run to see if it's better playing in Tx Panhandle or not. This time I want clear skies and explosive towers into the blue.

[Jim Bishop]

I'm jumping into this a little late....but,

Based on the 12z data I would have headed for Liberal, KS. After seeing the 18z data I'm driving south toward Western Oklahoma near I-40, hoping to get into better position to catch some cells firing to my southwest off the dryline.

[Dean Baron]

Based on the 18z data and the MD's I'm moving somewhere between Sioux Falls, SD and Pierre, SD. Nebraska looks to have some really shallow moisture plus the surface winds on South Dakota are more backed, some places in central and eastern Nebraska look like the winds are already veering. I'll stick with the 62 degree DP and the SE surface winds in (Pierre??) for now, although I may head east again as the front approaches. Unfortunately 60 degrees looks like the highest DP we will be getting today.

[Brian Stertz]

In fantasy land you can Dustin...lol. Need sustainance. Have the jitters about this case.

[Brian Stertz]

OK I am seeing the picture clearer now...am heading off to C. Nebraska and will have to pick up my pace. Looks like the next wave is poised to move into Nebraska by evening as indicated by strongest pressure falls. Right now I will make my moves with St.Paul NE as my target.

[Danny Neal]

After heading west on 80 for the majority of the morning....I hit OMA and travel WNW on US 275. I will probably hang out in Norfolk and see what happens to my south and west.

[Dennis Dennison]

Repositioning despite some feelings not to . Leaving Pratt,Ks and heading EAST to Wichita.

[Greg McLaughlin]

After looking over the 18z data I believe I am out of place. I am really looking at the dryline buldge forecast in west Texas. Since I am currently in Woodward I will bust tail south on HWY 34 towards Altus, OK. I will be trying to get into position to intercept any supercells that develop north and east of the dryline buldge. Its at a two hour drive, so I don't expect to be around Altus until 3:30 or 4pm. I hope I am not too late.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

My dad and I are moving northeast to Guthrie, TX and I am really liking my target choice at this point!

[Matthew Fischer]

After having a good breakfast in Wichita i hit the road and is heading for Medicine Lodge, KS. Going to stock up on Mountain Dew Code and some turkey sandwiches. Going to see what comes off the dry line into the more moist air here.

[Michael P. Morris]

Made it to Salina and saw the update, and now do not think that Goodland is far enough east. Planning on setting up shop near Hill City as I feel like the low developing in Colorado should track fairly close to my location. That 850 "forecast" worries me a bit due to the lack of deep moisture and potentially high cloud bases, but I didn't drive all this way to turn around now.

[Dustin Wilcox]

20 Z update....

http://severechase.com/stcc20.html

Next update will be later this evening, I am going to go play around in what has become a full blown Blizzard!!!

[Dann Cianca]

Well, I like where I'm at in SW Nebraska ... (still would rather be in Montana thanks to the lightning map), but I'm doing to drop a bit south to US 34 and follow these storms that are overhead right now.

[Kurt Hulst]

I was going out on a limb here as I was initially targeting Shamrock, TX. I might be moving to Childress or further south, but will sit tight as I watch the CU field develop to the west.

[Danny Neal]

Gonna head west and play with the wind and hail producers in Central Nebraska.

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks,Dustin for this further help;) I did need these fine surface plots. It seems to me to catch sight of a bulge just in Tx Panhandle, if I'm correct; that said, it is a synoptic structure I like so much when I decide to stay along the dryline. I'm moving from Liberal,Ks to Pampa,Tx.

[Bob Hartig]

I'm leaving Guymon and heading as fast as I can for Childress, TX. Wish I was closer to the dryline bulge, and that is really my target, but it's a long way off; right now I just want to head south along the dryline and see what pops up along the way. Street Atlas says it'll take me 3:47 minutes to reach Childress. Street Atlas is an old maid. Subtract one hour from that time and that'll be about right.

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Going to hang tight in Guthrie as I can see a great cu field to my west. I am just NE of the dryline bulge and I like the new MD.

[Marc Austin]

I'm going to go north on 83 out of Perryton, TX then east on 270 towards Seiling, OK. The dryline progressed eastward much faster than I thought it might. There looks to be a zone of surface confluence over the far eastern TX Panhandle. I'm hoping initiation will occur along the dryline and kick up some isolated sups in western OK. I'll keep an eye on the sky and look for the next update as I'm moving east to reposition. Directional shear looks decent, moisture looks ok, although dew could be a little higher. If nothing else, perhaps I'll get an LP sup with some great structure!

Edit: After looking at 20Z data and just having arrived in Seiling, OK, I will move southwestward closer to the dryline in the eastern TX panhandle. I'm making a move SSWwd toward Childress, TX. I know this is still far east, but it's a 3 hour drive from here and I'm hoping to catch anything that moves northeastward toward me. I have a sinking feeling about this case, but I won't give up just yet. The dryline has a way of pulling a rabbit out of the hat at the last minute.

[David Wolfson]

At 18Z the situation that brought me to northern SD at Mobridge hadn't changed much. By 20Z I'm thinking of heading a bit south, but I dunno... I will stay put for another hour and see if things come to me from the triple point east of Rapid City.

[Corey Sloan]

Going to move from Sioux City, IA to O'Neill, NE...gives me somewhat of a better road structure to move around if need be based on later data.....like the wind profiles here...moisture is limited but with the increasing jet and any outflow boundaries this is my only show based on my initial target choice....will see what happens....

[Greg McLaughlin]

After looking over the 18z data I believe I am out of place. I am really looking at the dryline buldge forecast in west Texas. Since I am currently in Woodward I will bust tail south on HWY 34 towards Altus, OK. I will be trying to get into position to intercept any supercells that develop north and east of the dryline buldge. Its a two hour drive, so I don't expect to be around Altus until after 3pm. I hope I am not too late.

I guess I am in better shape then some, but I still don't like my position. I have made it down to Altus, OK from Woodward and have just looked over the 20z data. From what I can see the dryline buldge that the 15z 9hour RUC was forecasting (was in the 18z data package) is materializing. That is what prompted me to head south. At this point I am going to continue south and west from Altus to Childress, TX and then decided where to go from there. I feel like I am still a little behind schedule and a bit out of place, but sometimes you can still have success when you make the right adjustments in the nick of time. I just hope this is the right decision. With no cu development evident in this area on satellite I have a little bit of time to get in better position before initiation.

[Joel Wright]

Hmm. After looking at 20z I think I still like my location and will still in Hays Kansas for now. May have to head northwest later, but for now will sit here. Deep moisture convergence is pretty nice in this area. Not too thrilled to be in a severe box, but at least I should see something today lol.

[Jim Tang]

Gonna move a bit north to Valentine, NE; winds are getting too veered for my liking down in North Platte. Starting to regret not going south to OK/TX but I guess we'll see.

edit: actually, maybe just east of that.

[Patrick Martin]

Some new 18Z information, including a couple 9hr charts from a mock 15Z RUC...

http://severechase.com/stcc18.html

I had to defer looking at anything until this evening b/c all the images of the data were blocked at my work, so I'm playing catch up starting with 18z data.

After having had a chance to digest data in North Platte, and seeing as tomorrow will be a down day, I'm going to make the 4hr run up to Murdo SD. I'm committed to a northern play at this point anyhow, so might as well follow the moisture. Also like the upper flow over s/c SD.

20z update: (ok, not so far behind with updates as I thought I might be) As I was heading up hwy 83, noticed the storms going up in my vicinity. Given that the road network is absolutely horrible where I am, playing the hwy 83 corridor north of Thedford, pretty much following a storm for a while, then dropping back south to the next one to see if one can really get going. I don't want to venture to far north on 83 though as I need an east option available just in case. Starting to think all I may get out of the day will be elevated hailers.

[Kevin Crawmer]

I am just getting caught up now too. After the 18z update I decided to high-tail it from Omaha towards Ainsworth, NE. 4 hr and 40 min drive. I should be there in time for showtime (even if it is just some wind). It would be nice to be on that dryline in TX though. Gotta stick to my guns.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Next update (including the days results) will be posted at 4Z...

[Mark Farnik]

I'm getting into the game a little bit late, but better late than never, I suppose.
My initial target would have been Lexington, NE, where I would have stayed put through the 20z update, but after analyzing I'm not particularly liking how veered the winds are becoming along the I-80 corridor, and I'm seeing some deeper moisture/more favorable winds in far north central NE/south central SD, and seeing as tomorrow is going to be a down day anyway, I'm rocketing north on Highway 183 to Ainsworth, NE and wait for a dominant cell to emerge out of the line forming to my west/southwest and intercept from there. I have a gut feeling that I likely will not see anything particularly exciting on this day, but anything is better than a blue sky bust. And besides, this move puts me in position to make a short jaunt back to the Badlands and shoot some scenery on tomorrow's down day... gotta look at the upside of my target choices! :)

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Some new 18Z information, including a couple 9hr charts from a mock 15Z RUC...

http://severechase.com/stcc18.html

And on this note, I'm bugging out and heading home (and it's even money I stayed home in the first place). Too far to drive for not much potential.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

20 Z update....

http://severechase.com/stcc20.html

Next update will be later this evening, I am going to go play around in what has become a full blown Blizzard!!!

And I'm glad I stayed home--way too dry for my tastes :(

[Paul Austin]

12z:

This is a tough one. I see some potential for two areas in particular.

As usual, the dry line setting up along the TX/NM border catches my eye. Moisture is sufficient here. The dry line is already pretty well-defined and will provide a focus for surface convergence. The 850 mb trough lines up well with the dry line for additional convergence focus. Mid and upper level winds are sufficiently strong to enhance vertical shear. Capping seems modest in the panhandles. And upper air lapse rates are maximized in this area, though much of this cooler air aloft should advect ENEward. Capping would be a concern, and vertical wind profiles appear for now to be either linear or backed from surface to upper levels.

Another area of interest for me would be NC to SE NE and NE KS. Diffluence aloft is pretty strong here to enhance lift. Vertical wind direction appears veered from surface to upper air. Dewpoints at or above 55 are advecting Nward through this area. Surface winds have a backing component in response to the approaching trough and 850 mb low center in NE WY. Concerns would be warmer 850 mb temps advecting ENEward out of E CO and backed upper level winds with approaching 500 mb low center.

I’m going to buck my own dry line trend and make the drive from Dodge City, KS (from Chase Case #5) up to an initial target of Kearney, NE. This should take me about 4.5 hours or so, so hopefully I can get some updated info en route. This will probably be a SW KS or TX panhandle day, since I have chosen a northern target. Actually, the more I look at it, the more I like Liberal, KS to Garden City, KS, but I’m sticking to my plan for now.

[Matt Gingery]

Well, Everything is still looking ok. Just ate a rack of ribs here in Wichita Falls, even got a round of golf in today. We are still in the same position that we originally chose. Now we are beginning to see initial convection develop to our SW on visible satellite as of 20z. Just dominating the situation. According to the 20z MD we should get some development as forecasted. We will hang here in Wichita Falls and if it gets jiggy in the next few hours we may jog east or northeast a bit.

[Andrew Revering]

After the 18z update, hanging with the dryline. Moving northeast and should be in Spur, TX by 430. After the 20z update, I'm hanging tight and monitoring. I see some low CU on satellite, but it still has a capped look to it. I do like the dryline bulge a hair to my south. Great convergence as well.

[Dustin Wilcox]

By 5 storms formed out ahead of the pre-existing line further West, and by 5:30 they are severe..


http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/CP22330.gif



At this time tornadoes are being produced, did you make it to the lead cell?


http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/CPradar0Z.gif


By dark the Western linear convection over takes things and a linear mess forms



http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/CPradar330.gif



Folks down in TX have a little hope, by 0Z some cells try to organize…



http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/TX0Z.gif



Struggling, but it’s still hanging on…



http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/TX003Z.gif



Bummer, by dark they have pretty much fallen apart, the small towers likely provided for some cool sunset shots though…



http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/TX2Z.gif



Despite the Blue boxes (something it seems you hardly ever see anymore) the day yielded a few tornadoes. The day was May 7th 2005, I am guessing this was likely a marginal day at best for most who chased, though I know some caught the brief tornadoes in NE. I’m actually amazed at how well a lot of people did on the chase case (though many others also started to bail on SC NE), when I was studying this day, I determined I would likely have positioned in SC SD, and if not there, I would have rather been along the DL in TX, C and SC NE would have been my third target and ultimately I would have missed tubes in my own state. A lot of disappointed chasers (and SPC forecasters) down South, a lot of chasers further North might have committed to the initial line of convection further West just a tad quick, though I suspect a lot flew SE once they saw that storm first firing in SC NE, rather or not they could have made it is another story... Those who hung out near Kearney and I-80 likely were all over it, Brian made a nice 18Z adjustment in opting for ST Paul, likely putting him self in position for an intercept, Danny might have made it if he decided to move SW early enough.
http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h260/dwunl68/reports.png

[Joel Wright]

Very interesting. Thanks for posting this case!

I was in Hays KS at 20z. After seeing convection at 23z to the north in southern NE I probably would have flew north in an attempt to intercept but I wouldn't have made it.

[Mike Ridgeway]

I'm still happy I started out in Childress. It's not too hard for a cap to break on May 7 along the dryline. I did see one isolated cell, so all is good. Not sure what would have happened on May 8, but I'd likely be heading to OKC for that day to chase.

[Bob Hartig]

Aaaaarrrr! I was in a good position to get my hopes dashed by the cell in the southeast TX panhandle. I am many miles from home, probably many miles from a gas station, and ready to grab dinner and find a motel for the night. The show was all up in Nebraska. Congrats to those of you who chased there.

Nice case, Dustin. Thank you!

[Paul Austin]

18z:

I like some of what I’m seeing. I think I’ll head wnw to North Platte and chill with the Carlsons, if they’re still there by my arrival around 1930z. I’m liking the dry push near the KS border with surface convergence occurring just south into KS, the clear air behind the front for continued destabilization, and the 500mb jet max almost overhead. Moisture could be a little richer, but is plenty ample for the forcing and destabilization. I might need to be a little north or maybe even south, and those options are available at North Platte. I prefer not to have to go too far north, as the sand hills don’t offer much in the way of road network. I do, however like the backed surface winds up more towards SD. I’m glad I chose the northern target, although there appears to be some nice surface converge from around Spur to Paducah, TX and decent clearing behind the morning cloud deck.

[Dean Baron]

Well I would've gotten some hailers and hopefully some nice structure in South Dakota but no steak dinner for me tonight.

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Post-mortem: I wonder what exactly I would have seen, looks like the hoses were touch-and-go (and then done) so I would have had to been lucky 'cause I ain't that good!

[Marc Austin]

Well, I busted again on this case. That's two successful chases out of four cases so far. I can't wait to participate in another! I wasn't too worried about capping due to the relatively cool morning temps, but apparently there was some upper-level warming. I most likely would have taken some video/pics of the cell west of Childress. Possibly some good lightning, but I'm sad to see no severe reports associated with that storm. Congrats to all who scored! It was a tough day.

Paul, not sure if you've finished with the case yet or not, but you were in the perfect spot from the very beginning! Great job! Looks like breaking your habits is sometimes rewarding. Say hello to Verne for me!:)

[Paul Austin]

20z:

Well, I’m not sure whether or not to bite on the ongoing stuff right near my location, which is undoubtedly racing northward, or to simply track them for a short distance for any possible development and wait for anything developing further south. I just don’t want to get caught behind the front if things get moving fast. The 2015 sat image has some decent-looking towers going up SE of me near Norton, KS. My initial target of Kearney, NE looks like it could be under the gun. I think I will twitter around with the stuff along the front between here and Stapleton, NE. If it looks linear or elevated, and the towers SE of me beckon, I might tear off back toward Kearney. I’ll have to move more east eventually anyway. I thing the cells back in CO might be a little elevated. As for TX, things look to have developed nicely southward along the dry line. Even north of Lubbock in the southern panhandle, the cu field looks ripe. I'm not down there, but I would love to be a little NE of Lubbock right about now.

[Brian Stertz]

I may have been able to have timed the intercept as it moved out of the Kearney area. This was the write up from the NWS Hastings on this event:

The initial "big" severe weather event for the 2005 season was quite a deal across south central Nebraska as several tornadoes were sighted. Of all the tornadoes, the most significant one occurred just east of Holdrege. The tornado set down south of Holdrege and bounced its way to the northeast side of town. About 5 miles south of Holdrege, two sheds were destroyed. This tornado damaged a hanger at Brewster Field and hit another farm just northeast of town. Five windows were blown out in the farm house along with other minor house damage. A barn was destroyed. Across the road, a center pivot irrigation system was heavily damaged. As the evening continued, there were numerous other tornado reports from Holdrege to east of Kearney. In Buffalo County, several twisters were sighted. One tornado displaced a barn onto a garage at a farm northwest of Gibbon. Another tornado kicked up quite a large dust cloud, but fortunately was in open county as it passed well north of Shelton. In Hall County, yet another tornado set down north of Wood River, but again causing no damage. The severe thunderstorms brought the usual entourage of hail, some wind and a little rain. Hail to the size of baseballs was reported in Kearney and there was vehicle and home damage scattered throughout the city. Golf ball size hail was reported at Oxford. Moth ball size hail was reported at Loomis and two inch in diameter size hail was reported near Palmer.

[John Farley]

Based on the 18Z data I repositioned SE from the OK panhandle to near Sayre, OK. After looking at 20Z, I'm poking a little west on I-40 into the TX panhandle, hoping but not real confident that something will fire on the dryline.

I've only looked at data up to 20Z, so if there is more available I will post again after I look at it.

[John Farley]

Well, seeing the outcome, maybe I got some sunset pictures on the non-severe storms in the TX panhandle. Nothing beyond that, for sure!

[Paul Austin]

Paul, not sure if you've finished with the case yet or not, but you were in the perfect spot from the very beginning! Great job! Looks like breaking your habits is sometimes rewarding. Say hello to Verne for me!:)

Hopefully I didn't "twitter" around with those frontal cells for too long. If I would have given up on the hailers early enough, I could have gotten on the cell near Holdrege or certainly by the time it was over Kearney, but that is up in the air. It depends on the data I would have had (hopefully not just Threatnet sat and radar images - I definitely would have missed the show) and what I was seeing near North Platte. It sounds like the cells in W NE were compelling enough for most who chased that day to have stayed on the "sure thing" until it was too late. Once the first T-warnings were issued, I could have possibly made it to the show late, but it's certainly in doubt. I'll give myself partial credit and settle for a Valentinos dinner bar over the steak :D

I am quite pleased that my initial target panned out. Now if I could only do something about my level of patience...

[Dennis Dennison]

I wasn't too hot on this day, but went anyway-didn't drive a lot-guess I should have stayed at my starting spot? However that moisture I saw did in fact get up and thru my place I was sitting at in Kansas, but otherwise I missed it,

[Dann Cianca]

Well, I like where I'm at in SW Nebraska ... (still would rather be in Montana thanks to the lightning map), but I'm doing to drop a bit south to US 34 and follow these storms that are overhead right now.

Well, I was heading east on US34 following the storms that had moved into Nebraska. Not sure I would have made it to the storms forming "ahead of the previous line"

Pretty close, though. Hard to say. :)

[Greg McLaughlin]

Well, it looks like I busted, but I was in position had anything become established northeast of the dryline buldge. You win some and you lose some. This wouldn't be my first bust chase.

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks Dustin for this case.
I busted too in Tx Panhandle...To be sincere I'm a "triple p." man, but this time I couldn't resist to remain in Tx Panhandle, after have seen a good shear, and a "bulging" dry line like that.

I wanna call your attention, guys, after have seen surface analysis map from 15.43Z till 3.43Z: I think there's a pretty nice low formed in NW Ks; I would have expected a focus of convective development just in Hill City neck of the woods, and I would have been pretty sure to see a supercell forming. Instead we had the convection started at least 60miles north, I think in Beaver City,Ne.

I would have bet that tornadoes would have formed between Hill City and Edmond with that low. Don't you think the same? It sounds a little strange to me and don't understand the reason.

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/surface/ict/20050507/sfc_ict_2005050722.gif

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/surface/ict/20050508/sfc_ict_2005050800.gif

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Man I busted too. Good case though Dustin.

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks Dustin for this case.
I busted too in Tx Panhandle...To be sincere I'm a "triple p." man, but this time I couldn't resist to remain in Tx Panhandle, after have seen a good shear, and a "bulging" dry line like that.

I wanna call your attention, guys, after have seen surface analysis map from 15.43Z till 3.43Z: I think there's a pretty nice low formed in NW Ks; I would have expected a focus of convective development just in Hill City neck of the woods, and I would have been pretty sure to see a supercell forming. Instead we had the convection started at least 60miles north, I think in Beaver City,Ne.

I would have bet that tornadoes would have formed between Hill City and Edmond with that low. Don't you think the same? It sounds a little strange to me and don't understand the reason.


I mean, I would have expected something like June 9 2005; compare both of them with surface analysis. Those look like very similar except thermodynamic fields.

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/surface/ict/20050609/sfc_ict_2005060920.gif

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive1/surface/ict/20050508/sfc_ict_2005050800.gif

[Kurt Hulst]

I remember this one and i chased here like i did that day. It was a beautiful sunset. If i remember right there was a larg convergence in Shamrock, but I could have that all mixed up because the best western always seems to be a chaser convergence.

[Adam Lucio]

Busted this one as well. TX hates me. Luckily for me if this were real life I probably would have been in NE instead. Since these are virtual though I assume I can have a starting point anywhere.

Good case though and one I will probably look over closely a few times to watch how things evolved and perhaps look into why TX never took off.

Thats the name of the game though, to think youre gonna never bust is just foolish. Now its time to chase the next best thing, those purdy southern cowgirls who can down more shots of jack than I can.

[Michael P. Morris]

If this were a real chase, my timeline would have put me in Hill City at about 20Z, with a chance to catch the storms in Nebraska as they fired up and started producing around 22Z. However, I would have probably screwed it up if I was actually there.

In real life, I sat at the Best Western in Shamrock, Texas along with a million other people and saw nothing. Go figure.

[Verne Carlson]

I actually chased this day and from the same area around North Platte, NE : http://www.stormchaserco.com/20050507.html

I'm going to say that from central NE I would have been all over the line of tornado warned storms but on the 'real' day I had to be back in Ft. Collins to meet Amanda and watch one of her triathlons that I promissed - so I left the chase early after some severe hail. :)

[Patrick Martin]

Aaargh, going to call this a bust! Got to antsy and moved north out of North Platte, when I should have stayed put and/or moved east. That's what I get for putting myself in Cherry cnty NE I suppose. I know there is likely no way I would have had a chance to reposition back in time to intercept the sups that went up as I would have been chasing from behind. Good challenging case!

[David Wolfson]

Virtually traveling up to northern SD was a higher risk play that didn't pan out, though I "saw" some severe storms. A bust on this case.

[Jim Tang]

Well fudge. I knew moving out of N Platte was a bad idea. Oh well, at least I was fairly close to the action.

[Corey Sloan]

Was in the game....but to far north by a few counties....radar trends would have most likely prompted me to move south....but all in all a good chase study! Thanks for putting it together!