NOAA U.S. WINTER OUTLOOK UPDATED

[mikegeukes]

NOAA U.S. WINTER OUTLOOK UPDATE
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2332.htm
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2326b.htm

Mike

[Robert Dewey]

I see the temperature outlook has changed.

I personally find all "long range forecasts" useless...

[Mike Johnson]

I'm surprised no one (official) has come out with
a 6 month severe weather (tornado) outlook! I
bet you it will happen someday!

Mike

[Tony Laubach]

Originally posted by Mike Johnson
I'm surprised no one (official) has come out with
a 6 month severe weather (tornado) outlook! I
bet you it will happen someday!

Mike

My prediction, tornadoes in the Great Plains from April through June! :) Does that count?

[David Draun]

Originally posted by Tony Laubach+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tony Laubach)</div><!--QuoteBegin-Mike Johnson
I'm surprised no one (official) has come out with
a 6 month severe weather (tornado) outlook! I
bet you it will happen someday!

Mike

My prediction, tornadoes in the Great Plains from April through June! :) Does that count?[/b]

I think Mike was talking about a forecast similar to how an annual hurricane forecast is issued. It would be like a rough estimate of how many tornadoes and intensity level of the tornadoes are expected to occur in a year. Such a forecast is probably impossible.

Hypothetical Example Forecast for 2005:

An all time record dangerous tornado season has been forecast for 2005.
We expect over 2000 tornadoes to occur next year. We expect about 500 of the storms to be signficant. (of F2 damage or stronger) Above normal troughing of the jet stream, and increased frequency of the eastward bulging of the dryline may cause local record seasons for the states of TX, OK, KS, NE, MO, and IA. An active storm track during the summer may cause numerous thunderstorm and tornado events over MN, IA, WI, IL, IN, and MI. Be advised, this is only a preliminary forecast, and future updates may forecast a greater or lesser severe weather season.

We assume no liability for any unrest, panic, or unnecessary evacuations of the forecast area caused by our forecasts.


Like that? :lol:

[Glen Romine]

Originally posted by David Draun

I think Mike was talking about a forecast similar to how an annual hurricane forecast is issued. It would be like a rough estimate of how many tornadoes and intensity level of the tornadoes are expected to occur in a year. Such a forecast is probably impossible.


Maybe not impossible, but difficult indeed. Efforts have been made to try and look at the long term predictability of severe weather - and those efforts have not had much success. Possible I suppose that someday we will come up with a better predictor - but unlikely it will be anytime soon. Climate forecasters struggle enough with just getting the temp and precip trends.

Glen