Peculiar GFS/WRF QPFs

[Jeff Duda]

The 12Z GFS and WRF runs show some peculiar QPF images over the southern great plains for the next few days. They look like mesoscale/synoptic scale supercells! Notice how each image is from a different model and at a different forecast hour, yet in a similar location.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~jdduda/portfolio/WRFmesoscalesupercell.gif

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~jdduda/portfolio/synopticsupercell.gif

[Mike Johnson]

these features are almost certainly convective feedback. its quite common with the GFS due to the convective parameterization and geostrophic adjustments. These "QPF Bombs" are discussed here (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpfbombs/display.html).

[Jeff Duda]

I just got around to reading that article on QPF bombs and now understand what I found.

I have to laugh, though. When I first saw these images, I thought they were just cutesy little peculiar QPF fields and that my mind was doing a Rorschach test and seeing the supercells. It turns out, the models really are putting some sort of supercellular bomb on that image! Amazing :eek: