INVEST 93L Western Carib

[J Kinkaid]

This could impact somebody next week along the gulfcoast


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif

[Stuart Robinson]

Some models build this system up to a TS (Ana?) in about 60 hours time.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

[Justin Pullin]

its looking quite disorganized at this hour..

Update: It is looking alot more impressive than it did earlier. If it does intensify into a tropical storm, it will indeed be named Ana.

[Stuart Robinson]

NHC just upgraded to Orange alert

"THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS."

Update:
The latest early cycle SHIP's intensity model says CAT1 Hurricane in 100 hours - too early to tell yet...

[Connor McCrorey]

As big convective blobs go, this one sure does look nice. I would be surprised at this point if we didn't get Ana out of it sometime before it hits the Gulf coast.

[Stuart Robinson]

Some disturbing output from the 00z HWRF. CAT2 Hurricane off Western florida in 96 hours. However GFDL refuses to devlope this system.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2009062700-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Mike Deep]

Just noticed the similar track from the ensemble. I think I liked it the other way.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Just noticed the similar track from the ensemble. I think I liked it the other way.

310
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[Stuart Robinson]

LOL Chris,
93L held some promise for a while – there was even a RECON flight scheduled for Sunday (which was cancelled)

93L actually had circulation at 700mb for a while, but was unable to achieve any surface circulation. I followed 93L across the Yucatan and never saw a Westerly surface ob at all!

Overall 93L remained just an open wave.

I guess that we will have to wait longer for Ana to form…

[J Kinkaid]

Actually they did fly into the GOM and do some test runs and I think that we already had Ana it made landfall on Dauphin Island Alabama in May. I expect for it to get upgraded after the season is over.