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richhorodner
07-09-2009, 01:31 PM
From the NOAA site today



El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10

July 9, 2009

NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

Sea Surface Temperatures the week of July 2009.

Sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Eastern Pacific, as of July 1, are at least one degree above average — a sign of El Niño. Animation.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

El Niño's impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.

El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean. These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.

In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.

El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns.

NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
July 9, 2009

NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

Sea Surface Temperatures the week of July 2009.

Sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Eastern Pacific, as of July 1, are at least one degree above average — a sign of El Niño. Animation.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

El Niño's impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.

El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean. These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.

In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.

El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns.

NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

Jason Foster
07-10-2009, 03:19 PM
Dupe threads (with the same time)...haha!
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?p=235094

cdcollura
07-11-2009, 05:15 PM
Good day all,

That figures...

2009 sucked to begin with ... Now my hope was hurricane chasing, now that's hosed ... Sounds like my love-life ;-(

2009 will go down as an Anti-Chris Collura year.

Mark Blue
07-12-2009, 02:50 PM
Hang in there Chris! We've been grinding and doing our level best on every chase and my wife and I have only witnessed a rotating funnel cloud that was half way to the ground from the cloud base this year. Other than that we've seen our share of nice structure, rain, wind, hail and lightning, but no bonafide tornado sightings. Seems like the year of the outflow dominant storm to me, yet others have cashed in from what I've read here.

It will be interesting to note what kind of chase prospects occur in the near future now that we know for sure we're in an El Nino pattern. By the way, I enjoyed the DVD of your Punta Gorda chase when Charley roared ashore on August 13, 2004.

Rob Wadsworth
07-12-2009, 05:06 PM
This is kinda cool news - to me. The last time there was an 'official El Nino' year was 1998 I believe. In which case, it was the first time I saw a tornado - here in California to boot! At this rate, I might get the opportunity to do some CA chasing.

What does the statistics look like for the Plains in an El Nino year - MGeukes? That is what we need to see here - the past stats on El Nino years and its relationship to severe storms on the Great Plains - imo...

Can you do that for us?
Thanks in advance!

Stuart Robinson
07-12-2009, 08:39 PM
1998 Hurricane Mitch!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/981026.html

Jim Leonard
07-13-2009, 04:27 PM
The EL-nino was mostly in 1997, it weakened sharply in 1998 so that hurricane season was in a cold ENSO. The 1997 hurricane season really stunk in the atlantic basin, the pacific was crazy active in both basins eastern and western. They even had 11 supertyphoons in the western pacific, a record..

Jason Harris
07-15-2009, 02:05 AM
Interesting data on El Nino increasing favorable conditions for tornadoes in FL during dry season:

The historic El Nino's of 1983 and 1998 set the stage for historic tornado activity in Florida. This brief study indicates that El Nino's of the magnitude of 1983 and 1998 increase the chances of severe weather outbreaks and stronger ET tornadoes simply by providing more opportunities for all the right ingredients to come together. The only recorded F4's in Florida history (4/4/66 and 4/15/58) occurred in relatively strong, but lesser El Nino years. The deadliest tornado outbreak prior to February 1998 occurred in a neutral year (3/31/62). History tells us we cannot rule out devastating tornadoes in any severe weather season, regardless of the state of El Nino. History indicates tells the threat of increased severe weather activity when significant El Nino's are forecast should be taken very seriously. There are very clear preparedness lessons for Florida: tornado watches and warnings issued in the dry season in the presence of strong jet stream dynamics in the late evening to mid morning represent particularly dangerous situations. This scenario could occur in any year, but is more likely in a strong El Nino year.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/sls19paper10-1.html

Chris Carter
07-17-2009, 05:33 AM
Well from what i can remember from 1998 in the plains, we had an unseasonably cool Fall, which lead to the October snowstorm, but right about the time from November to January it was Golf Central with warm temps and very little precip. It wasnt until Feb - Mar we got back into some cold and snow. Ill never forget 1997-1998 winter for Nebraska, i was so excited after the Oct snowstorm, and then it went down into the dumps (I am a snow lover). Definitely reminded of my quote "Just when you think things are going your way, nothing happens."

After looking up the severe weather season from 1998, it seems that if the current El Nino transitions into a strong La Nina for the spring and summer of 2010, the southeast will see more of the severe weather than the Great Plains. Sigh, whether its El Nino or La Nina, the Great Plains seem to get screwed over each time. haha.