Will the tropics ever come alive?

[Rocky Rascovich]

As we close out the month of July, there has yet to be one named storm, or even a depression (that I'm aware of). The latest visible satellite of the Atlantic basin shows nothing even remotely possible for tropical development for the next couple of days. What I am seeing is alot of dust that continues to be transported off the African continent. I would think that this would normally subside by now. Any thoughts on how much the budding El Nino has to do with this? and just how unusual is the amount of dust that's in the atmosphere over much of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea? Also, I read that tropical activity, not just in the Atlantic basin, but over the entire northern hemisphere has experienced the least amount of tropical cyclone activity ever recorded for the month of July.

So, what say you about this?

Rocky&family

[richhorodner]

As we close out the month of July, there has yet to be one named storm, or even a depression (that I'm aware of). The latest visible satellite of the Atlantic basin shows nothing even remotely possible for tropical development for the next couple of days. What I am seeing is alot of dust that continues to be transported off the African continent. I would think that this would normally subside by now. Any thoughts on how much the budding El Nino has to do with this? and just how unusual is the amount of dust that's in the atmosphere over much of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea? Also, I read that tropical activity, not just in the Atlantic basin, but over the entire northern hemisphere has experienced the least amount of tropical cyclone activity ever recorded for the month of July.

So, what say you about this?

Rocky&family

Keep in mind that the average number of named storms by July 31st is ONE; so we are one behind average.

As far as El Nino; the direct atmospheric response that dampens Atlantic Basin activity is upper level (about 200 mb.) westerlies and south-westerlies that stream out of the E. Pacific, cut across Central America, and sweep across the Carib. and the SW Atlantic. This atmospheric response has yet to occur.

The 200 mb winds west of Central America have so far been steadily east and NE; but as time goes by, if this changes, activity in the Atlantic Basin, especially west of longitude 60, is in trouble.

Now, I am not familiar with other worldwide atmospheric responses to a strengthening El Nino that might also dampen Atlantic Basin activity. If a weaker than normal monsoon in SW Asia is caused by a general El Nino pattern; that could affect hurricane activity, because that area is the genesis zone of the easterly waves that are the acorns that develop over the Atlantic.

Or, if a drier than normal W. African rainfall regime is an El Nino affect, that too could dampen Atlantic activity due to a lack of strong and viable easterly waves. The two things just mentioned above are also seemingly connected as well. Are they a result of the El Nino pattern?; someone else might be able to answer that.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Will the tropics ever come alive?

Remember the mid 80's?

Storms raging in the Pacific, NOTHING in the Atlantic (despite "watch out for season 1987" hype)?

So here we are...

Sort answer is: No.

My avatar tells you how 2009 has been.

[Bryan Brownlie]

You never know. The Atlantic has all kind of fast upper level winds that are making development next to impossible. It was slightly busier last year this time of year, but not by much, with similar upper level winds causing problems.

Personally I'm all for a quiet season, but it only takes one hurricane to do a lot of damage if it makes landfall in the right place.

There's enough stock footage of hurricanes and satellite images of hurricanes to sake my curiosity about them. My desire to see another one up close after Ike last year is significantly lower than it used to be. That sucked. Lol.

[Michael Nicolaou]

My desire to see another one up close after Ike last year is significantly lower than it used to be. That sucked. Lol.

Amen to that. After working 3 weeks in our Emergency Ops Center and seeing our store in Galveston damaged beyond repair, I'm ready for a few nice Tropical Storms to give me some forecasting opportunities but no major issues on landfall.

It's too early to put this season to bed just yet. Yes there are certainly mitigating factors (crappy upper level winds, El Nino effects, etc) but I am old enough to know that we'll still have stuff to keep our interest up come late August - October.

[Jason Foster]

If you build it, it will come....now just to figure out what I'm suppose to build, for the hurricanes to come?

Rocky...I'm sure we'll still see our share of the action. I am more worried of actual landfalling chances that actual tropical activity. Of course 2006 and 2007 were lacking in the US landfall department too...but they did have decent activity in the A.B.

But of course....I'm also more than happy to wait a year, so I can get my financial in better shape, as well as the fact the US certainly doesn't need a hit to drive fuel up, and another record setting damage and insurance claim year.

[Jason Harris]

Looks like signs of life, medium-risk of development as opposed to the low-risk waves recently:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[richhorodner]

http://i31.tinypic.com/2vmwuts.gif

from "calamity", forum "x"

[Jason Foster]

^^That's purdy...:D

Man...I've really got to see what the timing is going to be with that, and will it stay out to see....I'm so bad at tropical forecasts this far out.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Sure ... It'll come alive.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090806_hurricaneupdate.html

But my be slow...

[Rocky Rascovich]

^^That's purdy...:D

Man...I've really got to see what the timing is going to be with that, and will it stay out to see....I'm so bad at tropical forecasts this far out.

NOBODY is that great forecasting that far out. I don't even pay attention to the models until 240hrs, anything past that I only look at for possible trends.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Tropics finally coming alive: TD 2 has formed - Soon to be the first TS (fish storm not affecting land)...

NOBODY is that great forecasting that far out. I don't even pay attention to the models until 240hrs, anything past that I only look at for possible trends.

Also keep in mind that the general guidance 240 hours (or less) applies to very large-scale weather systems (troughs, mid-latitude lows, jet-streams, and such).

Tropical cyclones are MUCH smaller systems, slightly larger than the "mesoscale" in some cases (the smallest of synoptic scale weather). The smaller the system, the harder (more "granular") the models will have time forecasting it.

For chasing in the Plains, I'll start looking at a model 180 hours out or less. For tropical cyclones, I'll focus on the models mainly for track, not intensity, and go about 96 hours out - tops!

As of now, most models fail on intensity forcasts for tropical systems, but verify OK for track guidance (will it recurve? etc).