ATLANTIC: Tropical Storm Danny

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Another disturbance north or Puerto Rico shows promise of some development, and is soon to be our next depression.

The track should also be another "fish" storm and stay well off the US East coast, and well west of Bermuda ... So forget intercepting it (unless you get on a Hurricane Hunter flight or something) ;-)

The eastern US "vaccination" trough / condom is doing it's job well...

[Jason Foster]

The track should also be another "fish" storm and stay well off the US East coast, and well west of Bermuda ... So forget intercepting it (unless you get on a Hurricane Hunter flight or something) ;-)

The eastern US "vaccination" trough / condom is doing it's job well...

HeyHeyHey...was that a crack at me or something:D:D:D

I see the few models running 92L show a NW course up to about 30N and then bend it pretty quick. If I wasn't getting ready to fly out of the country, I certainly would consider a New England intercept, even at it's weak levels. The reports of the surf with Bill made me wish I was out at the shore in MD/DE/NJ.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

HeyHeyHey...was that a crack at me or something ... The reports of the surf with Bill made me wish I was out at the shore in MD/DE/NJ.

No, not pointing at you ;-)

Just these storm tracks this year do indeed require you to either be on a ship, be a fish, or on an airplane to intercept / experience them. El Nino is here and FL has been extremely quiet weather wise. Hurricane Bill actually made LESS waves in FL, if you can imagine that (2009 LOL).

Recon is investigating the 92L area this afternoon, let's see what they come up with.

[J Kinkaid]

Seems like the models are wanting to slow down the cold front. This may give Future Danny a chance to get close to the east coast. We should have more reliable model data later on this evening after 2 planes fly into 92L

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

[Marcus Opitz]

Seems to me that its crossing the point of no return with regards to turning north to avoid the SE or NE. It wont have much time to strengthen if it continues in this fashion with the upper low nearby. Although the convection appears to be lower, it looks more defined and a center appears evident.

I would be curious to see how subsequent model runs treat this system in the next day or so.

[J Kinkaid]

LLC showing up on the visible and west winds found.This will be upgraded to Danny very soon and watches will be posted at 11am

[Chip Redmond]

Watching this very carefully. Wouldn't mind intercepting Danny to be if indeed it makes it to the Carolinas/Virginia. Most models are still taking it out to sea based of 6z runs but a few outliars are still trying to bring it just onshore. Todays satellite does look much better and it will probably happen at next update although I will have to agree with Marcus, I don't think it will have the time to strengthen. However, it has slowed down since yesterday and if this trend continues, it may have a chance at a low Cat 3/upper Cat 2.




Chip

[Patrick Martin]

As luck would have it, I am flying into CT on Saturday afternoon. I'll be monitoring this pretty closely. If there is a southern New England landfall later in the weekend, albeit a weak one most likely, I'll have pics to share.

[MClarkson]

Pretty much same the same story here Patrick. By shear coincidence I am flying away from the northeast... to RDU where a friend has a wedding Saturday night. If it comes onshore at Cape Hatteras(as a hurricane) Saturday morning i will be there. Although I dont like our odds... if it comes close but misses just offshore we will be on the weak side. I like the odds for the very tip of Cape Cod better but only marginally so... the GFS just scrapes that cape as it recurves.

I do like the NAM forecast. I know the wrf structure is better at tropics than the eta... but years of automatically disregarding the NAM makes me distrust it still.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I will be up for a Hattaras trip this weekend myself. Right now I see an exposed center and shearing from an upper level low over Cuba.

LOL ... "Shear" when you don't need it (like "Ridge" in May, ey)?

Anyway, watching the western leaning models and hoping the shear will lessen and this storm can ramp up in intensity for a weekend intercept.

[Jason Foster]

Good day all,

I will be up for a Hattaras trip this weekend myself. Right now I see an exposed center and shearing from an upper level low over Cuba.

LOL ... "Shear" when you don't need it (like "Ridge" in May, ey)?

Anyway, watching the western leaning models and hoping the shear will lessen and this storm can ramp up in intensity for a weekend intercept.

Chris:

I'm checking out my schedule right now (and budget) to see if I am going to NC for this. Obviously the track also plays a major part in it for me. I'm thinking Nags Head area which is just up the road from Hatteras. Not worried too much about surge with this (like Isabel on Hatteras).

For me Nags head is about a 6 hour drive and 300 miles. Since I'm only getting 20mph off the Subaru (and a range of only around 230 miles) I'm not happy with my vehicle for chasing. Plus It's lowered for sport handling and cannot take on any surge more than a few inches (I wish I got an taller Outback style Legacy now).

Obviously I would also prefer a Mid-Atlantic coast storm or New England storm...I little more historic and a lot less driving. However I'm also squeezed for time being that I leave for my trip to S.America soon.

Edit: Chris, can you still edit the original post to change the title to reflect the TS designation? Maybe a mod. can do it. Or should a new thread be started?

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Edit: Chris, can you still edit the original post to change the title to reflect the TS designation? Maybe a mod. can do it. Or should a new thread be started?

Thanks Jason ... I already reported the thread to change (to TS Danny) yesterday to the MODs when they upgraded it.

Looking at this mornings track, I am severely disappointed - again. 2009 blows. Period (for me at least). I got to move out of FL.

Anyway, each update shows either the storm re-forming and / or bumping farther NORTH. With winds ar FL's lattitude blowing in stright out of the east, these northward jogs only take the storm close and closer to the recurving point.

This is why NHC keeps adjusting the track farther and farther to the RIGHT. Right now, a NC weekend trip - again - is off for me. In my opinion, the storm should stay well off the US east coast, and should come into Nova Scotia as a "perfect storm" type extratropical storm.

Hey George Kouranis?

For us "low lattitude" folks, we NEED a system forming in the Caribbean / Gulf to be of any chase-able "use". I am sure when a system is near Jamaica there would be a stout Bermuda high and no trough (and whoever goes to Jamaica to chase it would get mugged) ;-)

[Adam Penney]

Perhaps don't give up too quick...

Danny continues to look disorganized this morning. Seems to still have alot of dry air impacting to it and continuing to shove all of its convection well to the east of the exposed center.

NHC's 11 a.m. now sees to be showing some hesitancy in its track, calling it "erratic motion". It appears to my eye anyway, that in the last 3 hours satellite motion shows that Danny has been moving nearly due west and is roughly 50-70 nm south of the latest NHC forecast point.

They had this to say on their 11 a.m. upadate...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

...CENTER OF DANNY WOBBLES WESTWARD...

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

[MClarkson]

The 12z GFS has moved further inshore(it is now in good agreement with the NAM)... very near the coast of the Carolinas and then striking Cape Cod. I dont think I am going to drive to the Outer Banks for this one... maybe if it keeps jogging west? If you are near Cape Cod it might be worth something... if it can strengthen properly and keep moving west. Typical of higher latitude TCs this storm is going to be moving fast when it approaches the lattitude of Cape Cod... making the weak left side that much more worthless.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is interfering a lot with Danny. The center is exposed and sheared, and dry air is entraining into it.

Locally here in FL, the sun is even hazed (from the SAL)!

Interesting to see at one point the entire LLC moving due WEST once it is de-coupled to the upper airflow.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Danny is barely a tropical storm ... But has made that northward turn.

This storm should not affect the US.

[Chip Redmond]

Good day all,

Danny is barely a tropical storm ... But has made that northward turn.

This storm should not affect the US.

It appears that way. So much for that. Guess we'll have to sit and wait for the next one and hope the trough doesn't push it away too.


Chip

[Larry J. Kosch]

The latest VIS SAT clearly shows Danny's "naked" core circulation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

I imagine if you were able to strip down a major hurricane down to the bottom cloud layer, it would be close to what TS Danny looks like. :)

[Marcus Opitz]

This has been a remarkable year climate/weather wise. I rarely see a storm in this part of the atlantic that is affected by the SAL/dry air like poor Danny.... The lack of water vapor in the atlantic basin as depicted by satelite this year seems abnormal to me. Most of the hype in the media centers around sea surface temps; clearly this is only a small piece of the puzzle that builds a large and powerful hurricane. All the ingredients just did'nt "fit" together for Danny to intesify despite the relatively warm waters nearby. Kind of similar to the busts during the spring...Lots of CAPE and moisture and no mid/upper support or vice versa...

[J Kinkaid]

This thing hasn't been a tropical storm since about 33 hours ago. Wonder why the NHC will not downgrade it when recon hasn't found anything to keep this a Tropical Storm. Time to focus on 94L cause it's looking like a Carib runner.

[B Ozanne]

It looks like the COC slid between Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. We stayed dry all day in western CT. A fairly big forecast bust from as late as this morning.