Tropical Storm Fred

[J Kinkaid]

We have Invest 96L now off the African coast . Already code orange in the 2 from the NHC. Early model runs look fishy but time will tell.



http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/96L18Z.gif

[Josh Morgerman]

Invest 96L looks very impressive, but it makes little difference to me, at least. I've given up on the possibility of a chaseable African cyclone this year. It just doesn't seem to be in the cards. I think our best bet is a late-season, home-brewed system in the W Caribbean or Gulf.

[Adam Penney]

Josh, very much agreed. 96L looks like the healthiest African wave we have seen since Bill, imo.

However, id give it a VERY slim chance of making the long trek across the Atlantic.

Peak Hurricane season is reminding so much of this years peak time of tornado season...a whole lot of nothingness.

:(

Also, looking at the recent quickscat images, Invest 96 looks like it should become Tropical Storm Fred at anytime now.

[Ryan Orlando]

Invest 96L is now officially a tropical depression as of 21Z. Not liking the projected path of the storm according to NHC which has it a fish storm the whole time. :(

[Adam Penney]

As of the 11:00 p.m. update, we now have Tropical Storm Fred.

Looks like a "fish" to me, however, the GFS Ensemble members have been continuously hinting that the ridge will restrenthen sending Fred back on a westward if not a WSW course by the end of the weekend, FWIW.

So something to atleast keep tabs on for awhile...

[Jeff Duda]

If the big cutoff low(s) that the GFS progs to find a home over the Midwest at the end of this weekend stay as far west as the runs have been taking them lately, then this system could stand a chance at moving west instead of turning back out to sea.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Relax guys.

Does anyone think that will make it all the way across without turning out to see ... I don't think so.

When we see an "orange" or "red" in the Gulf of Mexico or SW Caribbean, then getting excited is "excused".

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day all,

Relax guys.

Does anyone think that will make it all the way across without turning out to see ... I don't think so.

When we see an "orange" or "red" in the Gulf of Mexico or SW Caribbean, then getting excited is "excused".
Based on the posts in this thread, it doesn't seem like anyone is excited about this.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

The "Fish" storm we are talking about on this thread should be moved to TS "Fred".

[Warren Faidley]

Looking at long range GFS data, it would appear that the Atlantic hurricane season will have a difficult time producing any real US threats for the near future.

W.

[Stuart Robinson]

I agree Warren *if* you are looking for a Cape Verde born storm - the lack of any real Azore high means massive recurve towards the central atlantic, a fish storm.

Perhaps we need a "future of the tropical season" thread...

[Josh Morgerman]

Like I said above, I don't think Africa is going to produce a good landfalling cyclone in the USA or Mexico this year. This recurve pattern seems too entrenched. Our best bet is something homegrown-- if the darn shear over the Gulf and the W Caribbean would let up a bit.

TS Fred is, to me, just another example of what a waste of time it is to look to Africa for chase subjects. This just doesn't seem to be the year for that. (Even on a good year, most Cape Verde cyclones curve out to sea. It's really a rare occurrence for one to actually make it across and hit the USA as a major hurricane.)

[Brian Osburn]

I dedicate this Atlantic Tropical Storm to the memory of Henry Corden, who performed the voices of both "Fred" Flintstone and Charley The "Tuna."

Seems only appropriate, imo.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Looking at long range GFS data, it would appear that the Atlantic hurricane season will have a difficult time producing any real US threats for the near future...

Yeah ... No sh_t Shirlock.

Again something in the Gulf or Caribbean will be promising.

I am sick of this agonizing wait seeing a Cape Verde storm trudge it's way acrosws the Atlantic only to re-curve, or - if is doesn't reecurve - Get ripped apart by the shear before reaching the US.

Currently on week 2 of therapy for SDS and on my 2nd bottle of Prozac for it (just kidding - but I feel that way). 2008 = spoil me, 2009 = c_ck tease.

A "future of the tropical season thread" will be great ... I am sure there are many others who wanna vent. I understand.

[Adam Penney]

As of the 11 p.m. advisory Fred is now a CAT 1 Hurricane. However, he will soon enough encounter much higher levels of shear(heard this scenario before??) and is forecasted to become a depression by Sunday night.

:(

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

As of the 11 p.m. advisory Fred is now a CAT 1 Hurricane. However, he will soon enough encounter much higher levels of shear(heard this scenario before??) and is forecasted to become a depression by Sunday night.

Storm rapidly intensified during nightime diurnal cycle (clouds tops at night radiatively cool into space causing more heat flux from sea surface below) and is now a well-defined CAT-3 (yes, the second MAJOR hurricane of the season).

...FRED BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...NO THREAT TO LAND...
http://dclips.fundraw.com/thumbdir/johnny_automatic_fish_top_view.jpg
Unless your a fish ... No one will be intercepting this one.