Rick (EPAC)

[Josh Morgerman]

A decent cyclone is brewing in the E Pac. It's going to be named TS Rick at 8 pm PDT, and the NHC (and the models) make it a major hurricane in a few days. The big question is whether it will recurve toward the coast. Some of the models fish it, and others bring it ashore on the Baja Peninsula, in the general vicinity of where Jimena came ashore. It already presents beautifully on the infrared-- a real quality system in the making.

I'm absolutely ready to go after this one of it looks worthwhile-- although that won't be clear for several more days.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Many possible tracks bring to-be Rick over the Baja penninsula for another Jimena-type storm.

Folks with ease of getting to Baja may have a last chase-opp coming next weekend.

[Jason Foster]

Josh....if you do go to Baja, at least you got a bit of a feel for the location this time around. Certainly would be a neat chase. I'm sure Chris and I (as well as a slew of others) if schedules and such were different. A few of us balk at the risky terrain of Baja...and the few other risks involved with that area.

[Josh Morgerman]

Josh....if you do go to Baja, at least you got a bit of a feel for the location this time around. Certainly would be a neat chase. I'm sure Chris and I (as well as a slew of others) if schedules and such were different. A few of us balk at the risky terrain of Baja...and the few other risks involved with that area.
Hey, Jason!

Yeah, totally-- I do have a little bit more confidence now that I've explored the region. It was a bit daunting the first time around-- for Jimena-- and I imagine it would be easier going again.

The Baja Peninsula is definitely not the easiest chase turf, with the rough terrain, the lack of towns, and the language barrier-- but, hey, I've just been so desperate for action this year-- and for a Southern Californian like myself, it's really cheap and easy to get down there.

I'd say my chances for a chase this time around are around 50/50. It could fish or it could hit-- the models are just not agreeing and the NHC is splitting it down the middle.

[Stuart Robinson]

As an aside - the GFS seemed to have a handle on the formation of Rick many days ago. (Well done GFS).

The GFS seems determined to right turn Rick to make landfall - question is where?

I best start looking at flights ....

[Josh Morgerman]

As an aside - the GFS seemed to have a handle on the formation of Rick many days ago. (Well done GFS).

The GFS seems determined to right turn Rick to make landfall - question is where?

I best start looking at flights ....
I agree that the GFS has had a good handle on this system-- but to me it definitely does not look determined to turn Rick toward the coast.

The GFDL and the HWRF are way more aggressive with the recurve and they bring it into the Baja.

The GFS keeps it way S and only bumps it N very slowly-- suggesting it would not be a really interesting chase subject if/when it made it to Mexico.

As far as chasing goes, we want the GFDL/HWRF solution. The GFS scenario would really suck.

[Josh Morgerman]

P.S. Stuart, if you have to fly thousands of miles to chase, why not go after Typhoon Lupit, which should come ashore in Luzon as a Cat 4? It seems awfully far to schlep for an EPAC cyclone that's not a likely major landfall. :D

I mean, I personally adore the EPAC-- but that's partially because it's my backyard. :cool:

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

For those lucky enough (no pun Mr Edds) to work the Pacific basin this year, I would focus more on the typhoon season as per Josh.

Luzon (main portion of the Philippines) has already gotton struck multiple times in the past year (reminescent of unlucky Florida in '04), and looks to be hit again by typhoon Lupit.

Keep an eye on Rick but I am already seeing trending of keeping this storm farther offshore (left of the previous tracks). Rick is currently encountering waters of 30 degrees C and 10 Knots of effective shear (or less) - Excellent parameters for rapid (or even explosive) intensification. Rick (should) be a hurricane by this afternoon.

Besides the track staying out at sea on some models, including the GFS (which I suprisingly saw Rick being progged last Sunday on it - !). Second, with a recurving track, the storm will move WNW, then NW, then slow down considerably to a N motion. With this scenario, I see the storm tracking towards Baja - However, there are some potential problems. First, some higher effective shear (30-40 Knots) will impenge on the storm. Second, it will cross into waters of about 25 degrees C or less.

This will cause weakening after 3-4 days out. With the low N motion after day 4, and still off Baja (if that track verifies), the combination of shear and cooler waters will weaken the storm substantially, bringing Rick into Baja by next weekend as a minimal hurricane at best.

That's my 2 cents, but anything can change.

Ofcourse, next weekend I am on a business trip to Buffalo, NY, but I am more concerned about this cold front passing through Fl (today) will stall and form something locally here in the Gulf / Carribean. But that's like wishing for a wedge tornado in the FL keys ;-)

[Josh Morgerman]

It's looking a tad less likely as a chase subject today. The model consensus and the official forecast have shifted left a bit-- although the GFDL and HWRF still turn it toward the Baja. It's irritating to have such strong ridging in late October.

Anyhoo, I'll just watch and wait-- no need to make a decision now.

[Josh Morgerman]

The 18Z models hint at a rightward shift, with the GFS showing a slightly more pronounced recurve. I know these are just the 18Zs, but still-- it's interesting.

It's hard to ignore the fact that the GFDL, HWRF, and Euro have been rigidly insistent on a landfall in SW Baja or Sinaloa for many runs now.

I won't give up on this one just yet.

[Josh Morgerman]

The models nudged right today, with the GFDL, HWRF, Euro, and even GFS now suggesting landfall.

The Euro is the most aggressive, showing a sharp recurve and an intense landfall in Sinaloa (the mainland). The GFS shows a slower recurve much further N-- into the Baja-- meaning a much weaker system-- but it's interesting that the GFS is even showing a landfall. The shift is significant.

Let's see what the 00Z models say...

I'm starting to think this might actually materialize. I'm certainly more optimistic than I was this morning.

[Josh Morgerman]

The 8 pm PDT Discussion suggests this will, indeed, threaten the Baja in 5-6 days. The question then becomes: how strong will the cyclone be at that time? As there's no known instance of a Cat 3 hitting the Baja's W coast, climatology alone suggests Cat 1 or Cat 2 at landfall. But if the models continue to trend right and start to show a Mainland landfall further S, this could get more interesting.

[Josh Morgerman]

It's a handsome cyclone.

The official intensity at 8 pm PDT was 85 kt-- but judging from these recent images, I can't imagine it's less than 100 kt now. The eye poked through just in the last couple of hours, and look at the spectacular outflow fanning out like that. It's really bombing out tonight:

[John Peters]

Looks like we've increased to 115kt/948 mb, and very impressive satellite presentation.

the inner core seems to have organized significantly over the past few scans, and a new large eye is emerging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/avn-l.jpg

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Models bringing Rick back over Baja by late Wednesday night with 80 Knots intensity or so. Looks like another "Jimena" in the same place!

The storm will NOT, however, be the "monster" it is now when it finally comes in next week because of the shear / cooler waters.

Category-5 status SHOULD be reached by tonight (10-17 to 10-18) or sooner ... Rick is a storm of impressive power ... If I died today I hope I would be a fish / dolphin in my next life :)

[Josh Morgerman]

Some of the models-- like the Euro and the crazy HWRF-- show a much stronger landfall further S.

The latest NHC forecast suggests a Cat-2 landfall on the Baja, as the 80 kt at Day 5 is after the cyclone crosses the Peninsula-- suggesting it would be stronger at landfall.

The models have been trending right, showing a sharper recurve, so I'm wondering if subsequent forecasts might show a stronger landfall further S, on the mainland. The trend is what I find interesting here.

[Josh Morgerman]

The latest advisory put the intensity at 130 kt-- however, the very latest satellite imagery suggests it might even be pushing Cat 5 (140 kt). Models are shifting E and faster, suggesting an increasing possibility of a Sinaloa landfall-- which from my point of view is much more desirable than a Baja landfall, as it would be stronger.

If I do this chase, I'm doing it with a Mexican whom I've been chatting with for years on another forum. I did my last two Mexico chases alone, and while I managed, it was tough because my Spanish isn't amazing. Having a Mexican chase partner will make it much easier this time around.

[Josh Morgerman]

In the words of the NHC, Rick is "spectacular". The current intensity is a whopping 906 mb/155 kt-- making it the second-strongest hurricane in EPAC history. Only Linda 1997 was stronger-- and it's still strengthening. Just a total whopper. The infrared and microwave presentations are breathtaking.

[Brian Osburn]

I'm ready to go. Josh, check your pm

[MClarkson]

Dr. Avila is correct in calling the sat images "Spectacular". If this isn't the best IR presentation I have ever seen it certainly ranks high among the contenders(Wilma, Isabel?). Almost perfect symmetry of the eye and CDO and cloud tops colder than almost any other hurricane. Its too bad there isn't going to be a recon plane. Id bet the central pressure is below 906mb.

[Danny Neal]

http://i119.photobucket.com/albums/o124/ILSvrWxTorChsr/7727_703844577969_30820927_39875623.jpg - Stunning!

[Josh Morgerman]

Dr. Avila is correct in calling the sat images "Spectacular". If this isn't the best IR presentation I have ever seen it certainly ranks high among the contenders(Wilma, Isabel?). Almost perfect symmetry of the eye and CDO and cloud tops colder than almost any other hurricane. Its too bad there isn't going to be a recon plane. Id bet the central pressure is below 906mb.
Totally agreed. It's heartbreaking that there isn't a recon mission into this thing to get hard data-- it's a pretty historic system. If it gets any stronger, it could beat out Linda 1997 as the strongest EPAC cyclone on record.

[Bart_Comstock]

I really wish I had the resources and time to chase down into the Baja Peninsula. As others have pointed out this has to be one of the best looking cyclones I have ever seen on satellite imagery. I can't wait to see what this thing looks like in the sunlight today. This is a classic example of a annular storm.
It looks as if Rick will keep strengthening a bit today before it starts its curve north so there is a good chance that it will surpass Linda. Right now his winds are currently up to 180mph (156knts) and the NHC thinks the winds could rise up to 185mph (160knts) so that would tie it with Linda's winds! It is a shame that they can't get a bird into her.

I am currious, how strong was the El Nino of 1997–98 when Linda was spinning over the ocean in comparison with the one we currently have in place right now?

http://photos-b.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs235.snc1/8217_1186319192087_1651511003_484204_7114458_n.jpg

For those who don't know Linda's record here it is: 185 mph (295 km/h) (1-minute sustained) Lowest pressure 902 mbar (hpa; 26.64 inhg)
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=303052&id=1651511003

[Josh Morgerman]

The models have been trending toward a sharper, faster recurve, which would mean a stronger, earlier landfall further S, on the Mainland. I'm hoping for this scenario to pan out-- it would make for a better chase.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I got to move to California / Mexico or something ... Rick is a STRONG cat-5 at the 180-185 MPH sustained - Gusts are well over 200.

Certainly a site to behold.

Unfortunately, I am not chasing this one as I am really fed up with 2009 (saving my patience for 2010), and my presence out there will probably ruin it (jinx) for anyone else going :)

Most likely, the landfall (if in Baja) should be Cat-2 at best.

It is highly fortunate Rick is where it is now, gusts over 200 MPH are the SAME kind of destruction an EF-5 tornado will do - Or like someone putting their hand out a window of a jet plane after taking off - Something awesome to think about.

[Josh Morgerman]

Most likely, the landfall (if in Baja) should be Cat-2 at best.
Climatology would agree, since no Cat-3 hurricane has ever hit Baja's W coast.

However... The models have been trending right, and some show a sharper recurve with a landfall further S. The cyclone may miss the Baja entirely, and a further-S landfall on the Mainland could be stronger. In fact, the chances of it hitting the Baja are only about 50-50-- which course presents an interesting dilemma Re: where to go-- Baja or Mainland? I'll decide tonight.

[GPhillips]

I am currious, how strong was the El Nino of 1997–98 when Linda was spinning over the ocean in comparison with the one we currently have in place right now?
The 1997-98 El Nino was the strongest on record, and it also started early, and was strong early. The latest 3-month average (JAS) SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region are only +0.8C, while at the same time in 1997, they were +2.0C (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml). That was truly extraordinary.

[Bart_Comstock]

The 1997-98 El Nino was the strongest on record, and it also started early, and was strong early. The latest 3-month average (JAS) SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region are only +0.8C, while at the same time in 1997, they were +2.0C (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml). That was truly extraordinary.
Wow that is incredible. I knew the 97-98 was the strongest El Nino on record I just didn't know it became so strong so quickly.

[Josh Morgerman]

I'm on the fence about this one as a chase subject. The NHC forecast is pretty aggressive about weakening, and I don't feel inclined to fly to Mexico for a rapidly unraveling Cat 1. A Cat 2, yes-- but anything less doesn't seem worth the hassle-- even given how convenient it is for me to get down there.

My chase partner, Jorge, and I still have time to think about it.

[richhorodner]

cdcollura Good day all,

. Rick is a STRONG cat-5 at the 180-185 MPH sustained - Gusts are well over 200.

Certainly a site to behold.

It is highly fortunate Rick is where it is now, gusts over 200 MPH are the SAME kind of destruction an EF-5 tornado will do - Or like someone putting their hand out a window of a jet plane after taking off - Something awesome to think about.

I've got to add that seeing Rick on satellite was a sight to behold, for sure. How often do we get to look at something that well organized and powerful. It gave me a hard one, that's for sure.

It is kinda neato to have such a spectacular hurricane with my name (despite Richard being one of the most common names on earth); but tempered extremely by the fact it is occurring in the most worthless tropical basin in the world - per storm chasing. I recall back before satellites, that the hurricane textbooks stated the the average number of hurricanes per year in the east Pacific was 2.2 (5.7 tropical storms); which indicates just how "unimportant" almost all the storms over there are.

GFS 84 hr. at time of predicted landfall by them has 40+ KNTS 200 mb SW winds (shear) at point of landfall.

One could get a saucer shaped balloon from "fellow" storm chaser Mr. Heene and get up there in the strong flow.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/epac/gfs/18/images/gfs_200_084m.gif

[Charles Kuster]

Rick is still an impressive looking category 5 hurricane with a well defined eye, though it does not look as incredible as it used to. Dry air is obviously impinging on the western side of the storm and outflow is only well established in the eastern two quadrants now.

Rick should make a rather sharp turn to the north and then northeast later tomorrow into the early morning hours on Tuesday as a trough over the western U.S. amplifies and slides east. Most models (most notably the GFDL) have Rick missing the Baja peninsula though I would not be surprised if it took a slightly more northerly track as shown by the HWRF and NAM.

I expect Rick to weaken rapidly as it approaches land late Wednesday. Models show continued dry air entrainment and strong southwesterly wind shear (~40 kts per the NAM) impacting the storm. These factors should lead to a Category 1 storm at landfall. Good luck to any who chase! :)

[Josh Morgerman]

Good luck to any who chase! :)
I definitely won't if the satellite presentation continues to deteriorate and the prognosis remains grim. It's way too much hassle to schlep there-- even from Southern California-- for a dying Cat 1.

However... The cyclone looks to be turning more NNW now and is apparently right of the NHC forecast track. If it recurves more sharply than expected, it could perhaps make for a more interesting scenario.

[Josh Morgerman]

The cyclone is looking a bit less virile this evening-- it's lost most of the super-cold cloud-tops-- and the NHC weakens it very aggressively as it approaches the coast, showing 70 kt just after landfall in Sinaloa. A chase is looking less likely tonight.

I'm almost relieved-- I have a hell workweek coming up. Leaving town for three days would have made it even worse. :D

[Josh Morgerman]

Wow-- Rick is spinning down as fast as it spun up. The 2 am PDT intensity is 110 kt, although even that seems charitable, judging from latenight infrared imagery. It'' continue to unravel-- however, it should still come ashore as a hurricane.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Rick is weakenign due to both the effects of increasing shear, and completion of an eyewall replacement cycle. The slowing down is the first signs of recurvature.

The storm may actually just graze / miss the southern tip of Baja, putting that area in the LEFT semi-circle of the storm, which would be much weaker than the right semi-circle.

If this latter track materializes, and the weakening trend continues, the storm may pass south of the southern tip of Baja and hit mainland Mexico about a day later. The SST's there not as cool as west of Baja, however, with the shear over Rick, weakening will still continue and Rick may be barely a cat-1 at that point.

During the CPA (closest approach) to Baja (or in Baja if it strikes there), then we're talking about a high-end cat-1 / low-end cat-2.

[Josh Morgerman]

It has really fallen apart this morning! I was surprised the 8 am PDT advisory puts it at 100 kt. It's the worst-looking major hurricane I've ever seen.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

It has really fallen apart this morning! I was surprised the 8 am PDT advisory puts it at 100 kt. It's the worst-looking major hurricane I've ever seen.

Night is to day ... As best is to worst - That's Rick! What a RADICAL change in 24 hours.

I hope no one is already got tickets to go there (Mexico), and if they did, I hope they did not book on American Airlines!

Hint: AA has the highest fees to cancel / change a ticket ... Yes, I'm hinting this hurricane IS NOT worth chasing anymore :(

Another waste...

[Tyler Burg]

Night is to day ... As best is to worst - That's Rick! What a RADICAL change in 24 hours.

I guess! thats just crazy, satellite looks like crap now... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/vis-l.jpg

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Based on visible satellite ... We almost have an exposed center.

Amazing how a "little bit of shear" can quickly prevent a disaster of biblical proportions!

Edit: Storm as of 2 PM down to 100 MPH ... Looks like even my previous post of a high-end Cat-1 near Cabo was a bit generous. Maybe a high-end tropical storm at landfall / CPA at this point.

[Brian Osburn]

Now, it's going to miss Cabo entirely!

I was there earlier this summer. That spud of land sure has some mojo!

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day all,
I hope no one is already got tickets to go there (Mexico), and if they did, I hope they did not book on American Airlines!

Hint: AA has the highest fees to cancel / change a ticket ... Yes, I'm hinting this hurricane IS NOT worth chasing anymore :(

Another waste...
I sure didn't. I always wait until less than 24 hours before to buy, so I'm cool. Anyhoo, flights from LAX to locations on Mexico's Pacific coast are cheap and plentiful.

I'm almost relieved this one crapped out-- it would be have been a pain in the azz to miss a few days of work this week. I'm totally busy right now. It was fate! :)

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I'm almost relieved this one crapped out ... I'm totally busy right now. It was fate! :)

QSL - Same here!

Edit: Funny seeing my post sitting here ... Maybe I should now say "low-end tropical storm" will be the landfall.

I have never seen a violent Cat-5 go to a tropical storm in less than 36 hours - That's a first for me.

[Josh Morgerman]

The cyclone is having a bit of a resurgence this evening. It's definitely getting better-organized, and looks like it could make a run at Cat-1 intensity again. The satellite presentation now, as compared with 24 hours ago, is remarkably improved.

[Josh Morgerman]

It made landfall near Mazatlan this morning as a lame-azz tropical storm. The end.