New Years Monster Storm?

[Mike Hollingshead]

Just watching the very extended GFS's overall ideas is getting me excited for something big to happen. Just a heads up for anyone looking for something to look forward to. Too bad the definition of COLD has to follow a monster storm like what looks to happen sometime after new years day.

[Amos Magliocco]

I'm excited about the warm air in advance of the trough melting some of that snow mountain waiting for me back in BMG. Bring it on!

[mikegeukes]

Warmer air over a colder surface, with the recent snows, with
several inches on the ground, at times can produce advection fog.

Mike

[Rocky Rascovich]

Merry Christmas Mike and everyone else on Stormtrack. I've been following the models on this storm for the last 3 days now...and I'm not enthused...this will act to send copious amounts of mild air into the upper midwest, this warm air advected over the deep snowpack of the U.P of Mich. will result in a sloppy R/ZR/IP mix over this area as well as notheast MN. and up toward YQT where signifigant icing may occur.

After all the lake effect powder that has descended upon the snowbelts of the Keweenaw over the last two weeks, a good foot of that will melt as this killjoy of a system hits by New Years Eve....Just when my son Leif and I arrive for some real winter time activities. This 10F temps here in Oklahoma with snow just doesn't cut it with me. If its going to be 10, I want a foot of snow with it!...

Anyway, all the models pretty much coalesce a fairly stout cyclone anywhere from 982 to 990mb. over the Dakota's by 12/30 then weaken it as it gets sheared east by New Years Day over northern downstate Mi. A pretty decent rain event is expected across MN., WI. and The U.P of Mich.
Even a thunderstorm may not be out of the question below an MSP-GRB line.

Still alot can happen as its still 6 days out, one thing is that the GFS has been aggressive in its last few runs of a signifigant surge of artic air after 1/8, with the upcoming systems progged to affect the upper midwest starting later this next week, a fairly good snowpack maybe laid down, so as to slow the modification of the airmass. Another consensus of the long range models is the return of the "pineapple express" after New Years across the southern plains, look for the return to above normal precip. especially for TX. and OK. and just maybe..... a svr wx event for the lower south to start the New Year out in good fashion.

Any thoughts on this would be much appreciated...I just pray that the models in the shorter run move this storm further south and east so we'll stay on the "white" side of things in the CMX area...
Merry Christmas!!!!

[Tim Vasquez]

I'd have to say I'm most impressed by the 384 hr GFS (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_384m.gif) for Jan 10... 468 dam thickness over Sask with a 1048 mb arctic high west of the Prairies. <add obligatory voodoo incantations> A good analogy for that is 12/23/90.. icebox freezes west of the Rockies.

Tim

[mikegeukes]

The Upper Peninsula sure gets it share of snow year after year
for example. here are some links for Hancock/Houghton Michigan

Historical Climate Data

Snowfall Summary
Station: 203908 HOUGHTON FAA AIRPORT, MI

1971-2000 Averages
http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/Snow/MI/203908_ssum.html

Climatology for Hancock/Houghton
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/index.php?page...ormals/totalCMX (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/index.php?page=climate/normals/totalCMX)

Upper Peninsula Season Snowfall Totals Maps:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/0203snow.jpg
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/0304snow.jpg

Mike

[Mike Hollingshead]

Still alot can happen as its still 6 days out,

Yeah what I'm talking about is not the Thrusday lead wave, but the big momma that could follow it a few days AFTER Jan 1.

[Dan Cook]

CHI's mentioning a "big storm" for next tues.

[Howard Robinson]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
I'd have to say I'm most impressed by the 384 hr GFS (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_384m.gif) for Jan 10... 468 dam thickness over Sask with a 1048 mb arctic high west of the Prairies. <add obligatory voodoo incantations> A good analogy for that is 12/23/90.. icebox freezes west of the Rockies.

Tim



Yea one problem with this, I AM IN SASK!!! HEH, I was telling some coworkers to get ready for a snow storm.

[Robert Dewey]

Well, according to the ETA, the second system coming in just after New Years Day would be a pretty good ice storm for some areas. ETA outputs close to an inch of QPF into sub freezing SFC temps with 850mb temps around 5C. Could be pretty interesting, as I am in one of the prime areas, at the time. Folks in IL/IA/WI are also in the target area...

[Jordan Manderfield]

Originally posted by rdewey
Well, according to the ETA, the second system coming in just after New Years Day would be a pretty good ice storm for some areas. ETA outputs close to an inch of QPF into sub freezing SFC temps with 850mb temps around 5C. Could be pretty interesting, as I am in one of the prime areas, at the time. Folks in IL/IA/WI are also in the target area...

Southern Minnsota could see some snow with this system too and accuweather tends to agree but accuweather sucks

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_images2/english/forecast/winter/400x300/us__snowice48.gif

[Jared Mysko]

I'm ready for a good storm but the forecast is not giving us much in the way of accumulated snow. It is and will be windy enough to make driving a nightmare for some and an adventure for others.

Jared
in Saskatoon, SK

Happy New Year all...

[Robert Dewey]

Models still showing a decent ice event. Each model run features a stronger high near the Hudson Bay, which translates into colder air within the easterly SFC flow across the Great Lakes.

DTX:

TO BE HONEST...PLENTY COULD GO WRONG WITH THIS WEEKENDS FORECAST THE
ETA PAINTING A VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ...

[Kurt Silvey]

Ya! I’m leaving this morning for KC, then Des Moines, and then spending the weekend in Minneapolis. Perhaps I’ll see some snow! But then have to drive home through Iowa’s ice! Nice.

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_p60_156m.gif (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_156m.gif)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_144m.gif (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_144m.gif)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_300_144m.gif (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_144m.gif)

Yep, pretty big snowstorm looming out there for the Wednesday timeframe.

[Glen Romine]

The operational run might be a bit of an outlier - the ensemble suggests considerable spread still with this system:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f144_us.html (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f144_us.html)

What they do agree with is an impressive ridge building in over the Yukon, which favors dislodging a cold air mass to sail into the northern plains - so at least that much appears a good bet. There were meaningful words of caution also in the NCEP discussion today:

...CENTRAL...
ECMWF REMAINS PREFERENCE HERE WITH MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND ESP SFC LOW REFLECTION LIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LAKES REGION WITH MUCH LESS FRONTAL PENETRATION SWD THAN GFS SERIES DAYS 5-7 SUN-TUES.

As such, you might be cautious of GFS forecasts for a few more cycles.

Glen

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Glen Romine
The operational run might be a bit of an outlier - the ensemble suggests considerable spread still with this system:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f144_us.html (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f144_us.html)

What they do agree with is an impressive ridge building in over the Yukon, which favors dislodging a cold air mass to sail into the northern plains - so at least that much appears a good bet. There were meaningful words of caution also in the NCEP discussion today:

...CENTRAL...
ECMWF REMAINS PREFERENCE HERE WITH MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND ESP SFC LOW REFLECTION LIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LAKES REGION WITH MUCH LESS FRONTAL PENETRATION SWD THAN GFS SERIES DAYS 5-7 SUN-TUES.

As such, you might be cautious of GFS forecasts for a few more cycles.

Glen

Yeah, plus it's still a good ways away. Since everyone here seems to be talking about different storms, I may go ahead and start an "Ice Storm" thread, as the ETA and other models are still consistant in the 72-84 hour time frame of a good precipitation event occuring over a shallow cold layer in the Midwest/Great Lakes. Also warranting a new thread, is the fact that this one was designed for a "New Years" event, and now we are kind of straying beyond the original time frame.

[Mike Hollingshead]

It might not end up being a big wound up nasty blizzard, but it sure looks to cover a large area this week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ta_p60_084m.gif (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/00/images/eta_p60_084m.gif)

That would certainly be alot of snow in the very cold regions on the north side of that track, and alot of ice for many. Weeeeeeeeeee.