1/6/2005: SIGNIFICANT PLAINS/MIDWEST WINTER STORM [Archive]

Robert Dewey

01-02-2005, 09:07 PM

Past couple runs of the ETA have been interesting as far as winter weather is concerned. A large swath of potentially very heavy snows (based on the 00Z ETA) should be extending from IA to southern MI is just north of a very tight baroclinic zone between 48-84 hours, with a nice overrunning event setting up. Temps at 850mb are generally in the -6C to -8C range with deep moisture and strong VV's in the low to mid levels. SFC temps appear to remain in the low to mid 20's for the event duration, and given the local 20:1 snow ratio for the past big event at these temperatures/setup, I would also say this could be a 20:1 ratio. QPF on the ETA is generally above 1 inch, and PWATS just south of the baroclinic zone reach a healthy 1.85 inches (very high for January!), so this could get very interesting!

Looks like the ones who missed out on the last event may get hit big time with this one (Joel, Dan, Me, etc.)...

This event is still a few days out, and I have yet to check the other models, but this certainly gives me high hopes!

Andrew Geil

01-02-2005, 09:26 PM

Looks like we're gonna get a decent icing down here in Illinois. Oye, and the 60 degree temps were so nice. I knew we were gonna have to pay for it somehow...

Dan Cook

01-02-2005, 09:53 PM

Dewey, I AM going to hold this to you if it bombs out. :twisted: 8)

Jeff Lawson

01-02-2005, 10:03 PM

It looks like we'll finally be in for some snow here in eastern Nebraska on Tuesday and Wednesday. Before that, there's the potential for some semi-significant icing tonight. My, how things change in a hurry.

Alex Lamers

01-02-2005, 10:48 PM

With only 3.9" here officially thus far in Milwaukee for the winter season...we're kind of snow-depressed, the snow lovers anyways. A nice +12 incher would be an effective remedy. Even blending the 00z GFS and ETA amounts would yield about 9-12 inches here. This far out...I like to halve amounts to keep me honest and not get too excited. So 4-6" would make me happy :)

...Alex Lamers...

Joel Wright

01-02-2005, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by Dan Cook
Dewey, I AM going to hold this to you if it bombs out. :twisted: 8)

Me too! :-p

It does look like a good snow storm for a lot of us. The temp range from north to south across the conus is very impressive!

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 12:08 AM

Most of the medium range models seem to be agreeing on this system, GFS has been trending towards a deeper and further north solution (compared to the JAN 02 2004 12Z run). The baroclinic zone will be very tight and will make or break this situation...

Joel Wright

01-03-2005, 03:16 AM

The latest ETA actually has my area getting more freezing rain again. In fact, it would be a rather impressive ice storm, with up to an inch of ice accumulation. Of course this is from just the one run, so I am not putting too much credence into it. Nevertheless this is a very interesting storm. It's nice to have some action again, something to track.

I gotta tell ya, as much as I love springtime storms etc, I really do enjoy tracking these winter storms!

Kevin Scharfenberg

01-03-2005, 03:49 AM

Strong words from HPC/NCEP:

IF THE GFS/ETA ARE CORRECT... THE FREEZING RAIN
ASPECT COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY HISTORIC.

Unfortunately, I am catching a connecting flight at O'Hare around noon Wednesday. :roll: I hope they have only snow there or it could be a long week!

Chris Hayes

01-03-2005, 05:31 AM

I'll either be getting freezing rain or snow from this. Neither the ETA or GFS model is exciting me this round. Last night's GFS run showed me in the 6-10" of snow range. That changed today. I'm praying for a good snowstorm. I'm not too optimistic though. The county I live in has a bubble over it preventing anything more than 6" of snow from falling. :? :evil:

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 06:44 AM

Sitting here just north of Detroit, I should get either freezing rain or snow, and alot of whatever one I do get (hopefully)... What I DO NOT want to see, is a mixture of snow/sleet/freezing rain! LOL

Joel Wright

01-03-2005, 08:48 AM

Wow, this storm system seems to be getting more and more interesting. What I do like about it is it's longevity. Snow will accumulate well over a foot in the heavy snow swath. And it looks like a fairly wide area will see a long duration icing event with accumulations in excess of an inch! Power crews across the midwest are going to be putting in some OT this week I'm afraid.

Right now the NWS in DVN is calling for mainly snow in my area, however all the models show thickness' above 540 during most of the event. This is going to be a very close call. If this ends up being all ice it will be one incredible storm, one for the record books possibly.

*Okay some of that may have been a little bit of wishcasting...:-p

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 09:22 AM

The 12Z ETA is a bit further south than the 00Z run, and a tad weaker... This actually keeps me in the all snow, but the heavier accumulations would be about 50 miles to my south.

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 02:32 PM

Winter storm watches already being thrown up for areas of the Great Lakes and Midwest, or about 36-42 hours BEFORE the event even starts. NWS offices are taking this storm very seriously, as apparent by the early watches. 18Z ETA looks more like the 06Z ETA, and took a slight jog further north again...

Dan Cook

01-03-2005, 04:00 PM

WSW issued here.

Tim Stoecklein

01-03-2005, 04:28 PM

We'll let you know, as we'll see it here tomorrow into Wednesday. They've been giddy about this one for several days now, as apparently we all have. I just want to see some snow......

Tim

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 05:56 PM

Things still look interesting... The 18Z FSL RUC is beginning to pick up the event, and is quite moist with this system. The FSL RUC verified pretty darn well in regards to the last strong winter storm (Ohio Valley) in terms of QPF and SFC low positioning.

I am also trying to decide whether or not to run the Workstation ETA using the GFS as initialization, on a 12KM grid scale and KF convective scheme, just to see how the QPF sets up (since the GFS appears to be more stable with the track, and is currently doing a better job at verification). But, I have found that doing this will actually kill a winter storm :wink:

NWS DTX has a watch out for greater than 8 inches of snow, and that is pretty rare considering the event is still quite a ways out, and DTX only reserves the "greater than 8 inch" wording for the strongest of storms (or so I have noticed, most of the time it's "greater than 6 inches").

Dan Cook

01-03-2005, 06:00 PM

LOT's waiting for the 00 models to upgrade their watch any further.

Jeff Lawson

01-03-2005, 06:12 PM

Winter Storm Watches are up here in eastern Nebraska, and OAX seems confident enough in the models and their forecast to go ahead and set start times for the Winter Storm Warnings (Noon tomorrow for my location). Forecast calls for as much as 12 inches of snow.

EDIT: Actually, looks like NO Winter Storm Watch. They just went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Warning for the entire CWA, starting at various times of day tomorrow for certain zones. So, technically, the Winter Storm Warning has been issued, but it's not yet in effect. Weird. Or perhaps it's normal, and I've just lived in Texas too long.

rdale

01-03-2005, 06:24 PM

"So, technically, the Winter Storm Warning has been issued, but it's not yet in effect."

That's normal... Same thing for a watch - my area is under a winter storm watch tomorrow issued today (wouldn't make sense to wait til an event starts to send the warning!)

I'm calling for 4-8" in the Lansing area with 8-12" south and east towards the state line.

- rd

PS No need to post "we're waiting for the next model run" because we're all waiting for the next model run, and no need to post just stating that your area is under a watch or warning because we all see the national graphics with watches & warnings...

Jeff Lawson

01-03-2005, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by rdale
That's normal... Same thing for a watch - my area is under a winter storm watch tomorrow issued today (wouldn't make sense to wait til an event starts to send the warning!)

I've seen it done with Winter Storm Watches, but never a Warning. Not to say it doesn't happen...it just surprised me, especially given that, for some locations, the warning wouldn't kick in for another 24 hours after issuance. Seems like it would make more sense to issue a Watch today and then upgrade to a Warning tomorrow at the necessary time.

When I was a student intern at FTW years ago, I don't remember ever being around when a Winter Storm Watch or Warning was issued, so I didn't remember the exact protocol off the top of my head.

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by rdale
PS No need to post \"we're waiting for the next model run\" because we're all waiting for the next model run, and no need to post just stating that your area is under a watch or warning because we all see the national graphics with watches & warnings...

Hey, ya gotta keep the thread on top somehow! :o

Anyway Rob, it's interesting to see your forecast -- Our local ABC station (WXYZ) didn't mention any accumulations, and didn't even mention the watch until well into the 6:00PM edition, which I was quite surprised at.

Your forecast looks about right, no need to go bonkers with totals when the storm is just barely making the CA coast as of now. Things can always be tuned up or down as the situation evolves...

David Schuttler

01-03-2005, 06:53 PM

Me think RD is looking for a mod job ...... :o :o :o

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by Jeff Lawson+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Lawson)</div><!--QuoteBegin-rdale
That's normal... Same thing for a watch - my area is under a winter storm watch tomorrow issued today (wouldn't make sense to wait til an event starts to send the warning!)

I've seen it done with Winter Storm Watches, but never a Warning. Not to say it doesn't happen...it just surprised me, especially given that, for some locations, the warning wouldn't kick in for another 24 hours after issuance. Seems like it would make more sense to issue a Watch today and then upgrade to a Warning tomorrow at the necessary time.

When I was a student intern at FTW years ago, I don't remember ever being around when a Winter Storm Watch or Warning was issued, so I didn't remember the exact protocol off the top of my head.[/b]

I think the reason for the early warning, is that many NWS are expecting this to be a pretty significant event, or at least that's how it looks right now. Still time for things to change, but better to get the warning out early than to have no warning at all. My personal guess, based on observations over the years, is that our local NWS (DTX/GRR) won't issue a warning until tomorrow afternoons package or perhaps even as late as the Wednesday A.M. discussion... They usually give a 12 hour lead time...

rdale

01-03-2005, 07:31 PM

"Seems like it would make more sense to issue a Watch today and then upgrade to a Warning tomorrow at the necessary time. "

It's a confidence thing... For some areas this is a high confidence event, so no sense putting off something.

As for Detroit's TV weathercasters - they aren't well known for the meteorological abilities.

- Rob

Joel Wright

01-03-2005, 08:08 PM

This storm appears to be sort of a two parter. Looks like a quick shot of precip will shoot out tomorrow and tomorrow night, while the main energy takes it's sweet time in coming through. I wouldn't be surprised if the main part of the storm slows down even further in future runs allowing for a much larger break between "waves", possibly over 12hrs. So it would almost be like two different storm systems all together. A lot of times when this happens snow amounts are overforecasted a bit. This is just my little observation. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by Joel Wright
This storm appears to be sort of a two parter. Looks like a quick shot of precip will shoot out tomorrow and tomorrow night, while the main energy takes it's sweet time in coming through. I wouldn't be surprised if the main part of the storm slows down even further in future runs allowing for a much larger break between \"waves\", possibly over 12hrs. So it would almost be like two different storm systems all together. A lot of times when this happens snow amounts are overforecasted a bit. This is just my little observation. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Actually, I think you may be looking at the "overrunning" event before the actual storm swings through... In cases like this, forecasted snowfall amounts are usually UNDER forecast (i.e. very similar situation with the deformation zone in the Ohio Valley on the 12/23 monster snowstorm). I can already say this about the ETA -- It appears too weak with the 500mb trough just off the CA coast... OBS indicated the 540 height contour making it into western CA, where as the ETA don't even have a 540 contour.

Mike Umscheid

01-03-2005, 08:16 PM

In Dodge City, KS, we are bracing for a major ice event...especially for high plains standards... as climatology/geography does NOT favor southwest Kansas for major freezing rain events... they occur, but the .50 to 1.00"+ ice storms are about a 15 to 20 year event (that's a guess, I'd have to look at the actual LCDs)... December 1984 was a big event... in a typical major winter storm, the cold layer in western kansas is deep enough for most of the event to be in the form of snow... it is very rare to see the high plains of southwest kansas getting all freezing rain event... or the majority of the event being freezing rain. just northwest of here, it appears the cold air will be deep enough in the lowest layers for sleet... prolonged sleet is also very unusual, and it appears this will happen in a narrow strip across western Kansas.

Then wednesday morning, as the 10-15F arctic air plunges south, driving north winds on the high plains will sway the ice-laden trees/powerlines, creating a hell of a time. Needless to say, winter storm warnings are in effect for much of kansas already for largely a prolonged ice storm (somewhat similar to January 29-31, 2002, but probably not as much precipitation). We've used verbage such as "power outages can be expected" in our warning for southwest kansas.

Mike U

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 08:21 PM

NOTE: I changed the title of the thread to incorporate the ice event and expand the potentially affected areas.

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 09:29 PM

After looking at the ETA, and using the GEM and NGM as a "first guess" model (to see if they are in similar agreement), things are looking good for a very significant snowstorm across the Great Lakes region (of course, other regions are affected, I am somewhat biased to the Great Lakes -- IL/IN/MI/OH/WI).

IF, and this is a big IF, the 00Z JAN 03 2004 run of the ETA is correct with the amount of moisture, vertical velocity, frontogenesis, vorticity, and ultimately the location of the bariclinic/deformation zone, I would venture to say that a pretty broad band of 16-20 inches would be a pretty good bet from eastern IA to southeastern lower MI. QPF in this region is on the order of 1.15 inches, and I decided to use a snow ratio of 1 to 18 as opposed to the previous 1 to 20, since the air will be slightly warmer than previously thought. Within that heavy band, it is quite possible that CSI may allow for a very intense band of snow given the direction of the flow, orientation of the baroclinic zone, and system movement along the boundary. I would not be at all surprised to see someone end up with 24 inches, again, if the ETA verifies.

Obviously no true forecaster is going to stick their neck out and paint such a snowy picture, but for the sake of this forum, for kicks, and the fact that I called it on the Ohio Valley storm by some lucky pick of the straw (I actually underforecast that one), here we go. :wink:

EDIT: The latest GFS is in, and it certainly put a kink in things. It has trended pretty far south with the QPF axis (over the Midwest/Great Lakes) compared to the ETA, NGM, FSL RUC, and Canadian GEM models. The 00Z FSL RUC seems to have some problems at 500mb at the 48 hour time frame by being overly aggressive. So, the ETA is the farthest north and would produce the most snow, while the GFS appears to be the furthest south, with the least snow...

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 11:36 PM

Looks like I'm not the only one thinking this is gonna be a big one:

IF CONVECTION TO
OUR SOUTH DOESN/T ROB SOME OF THE MOISTURE INFLUX...THEN
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE 50 MI WIDE SWATH OF 12-16 INCHES NORTH
OF QUAD CITIES FROM HIGHWAY 30 TO HIGHWAY 20. STORM HAS
POTENTIAL TO PACK AS MUCH PUNCH AS THE JAN 1-2 STORM OF 1999.

I really hope things stay on track, and don't start to trend towards the GFS, or else you can kiss the January 2, 1999-like event goodbye...

Dan Cook

01-03-2005, 11:42 PM

You better not jinx it! :evil: :P

more on the jan 1 storm:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extrem...blizzard99.html (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/january/blizzard99.html)

Robert Dewey

01-03-2005, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by Dan Cook
You better not jinx it! :evil: :P

more on the jan 1 storm:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/january/blizzard99.html

I sure hope I don't jinx it! I certainly didn't jinx my previous thread on the 12/23 storm for the lucky folks who got over 30 inches, LOL...

While this system looks like it may produce very heavy snowfall amounts, I don't think it will be a big wind maker, so blizzard conditions probably won't be met... Also, there doesn't appear to be a significant blast of true arctic air behind this system as was the case with the Jan 1999 event (where highs barely got above 0F the next day). None the less, the current ETA run does paint a pretty significant and perhaps historic picture as far as snow accumulations and ice accumulations...

Joel Wright

01-04-2005, 07:32 AM

Right where I am sitting we appear to be right on line between the ice and snow. If we could stay all snow, it would look like we would easily get a foot. However, 850mb temps are above freezing until Wed morning, or about 12-15 hrs after precip onset. This is a bit further north than the earlier runs. So, it looks like we may get half ice, and half snow. I would rather have one or the other. Definitely a very difficult forecast.

It looks like someone out in north-central IA will get more than 20" of high ratio snow.

Jeremy Lemanski

01-04-2005, 07:34 AM

well, if the gfs is the farthest south then the 0z gem must be the farthest north. it has a low over indy. at 60 hours and then takes it almost over toledo. That would mean a huge ice storm for metro det. :shock:

Hopefully we, the great lakes region, get a decent snow out of this after losing all of our snowcover to last weeks warmup/storms.

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
well, if the gfs is the farthest south then the 0z gem must be the farthest north. it has a low over indy. at 60 hours and then takes it almost over toledo. That would mean a huge ice storm for metro det. :shock:

Hopefully we, the great lakes region, get a decent snow out of this after losing all of our snowcover to last weeks warmup/storms.

The latest 12Z GEM is also the farthest north operational model again, with the 12Z ETA coming in second along side with the NGM. The farthest north out of both operational and mesoscale models would be the 12Z FSL RUC. The 12Z GFS has also trended the QPF axis about 25 miles further north than the 00Z GFS run... So, I would be willing to say that a farther north solution, as far as the QPF is concerned, should be about right. BUT, from the NCEP model bias/performance website, this is said for the GFS:

QPF verification historically better than Eta
Rely more heavily on QPF from GFS - especially beyond 36 hours

Dan Cook

01-04-2005, 10:20 AM

So how much snow do you think we'll see? 8)

Mike Hollingshead

01-04-2005, 10:27 AM

http://grib2.wxcaster.com/wxcaster4/CONUS1...OWFALL_48HR.gif (http://grib2.wxcaster.com/wxcaster4/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif)

Man ETA is still painting a nasty picture. Blotches of 15+ at just a 10:1 ratio. Hate to see a 20:1 ratio.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p1...koax/latest.gif (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.koax/latest.gif)

I noticed this interesting boundary on radar returns last night stretching from just north of Omaha(or right on me) clear northeast to more returns. The eta forecast snowfall is tracing that line. The line/boundary is still there this morning. I would expect that line to see the strongest banding and most constant banding.

Bill Schintler

01-04-2005, 10:32 AM

Forecast:
Light freezing drizzle has been falling since midnight and will continue to do so throughout the day, with little or no accumulation. Snowfall will start in the Iowa City around 7 PM and Cedar Rapids around 8 PM tonight. It will be heavy between 12 AM and 6 AM, and "thundersnow" will be possible during this period, leading to some very high snowfall rates. Tomorrow, the snowfall will taper off to lighter rates until late in the afternoon at which time heavier snowfall will begin again. The snow should exit the area between 3 AM and 6 AM Thursday morning.

Snowfall amounts:
9" - 12" along and 20 mi either side of a Creston, IA, to Iowa City to Quad Cities line.
6" - 9" along and south of a Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Clinton line.
3"-5" along and south of a Storm Lake to Waterloo line.
South of a Creston to Washington line, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain will mix in with lighter snowfall totals. Further south in MO and IL, a very significant ice storm will occur.

Discussion:
At 12Z today, a strong baroclinic zone was noted from SERN OK through SRN MO through SRN IL. Surface low pressure is advertised to develop and ride along this boundary over the next 36 hours in response to a very nice coupled upper-level jet structure as the upper-low in the SWRN states shears out and opens up. The first of a series of shortwaves will approach the upper-midwest this evening, enhancing an area of strong isentropic assent that will be in place during the period. An extended area of deformation zone precipitation will also occur late in the day Wednesday, as a second shortwave approaches. The 12Z Eta initialized well with regard to heights and temperatures in the upper-air data, as well as current precipitation fields. Total storm Eta QPF appears to be around 1.5" along and 50 mi either side of the I-80 corridor. During the first period of heavy precipitation tonight, a 6:1 snow/water ratio will be occur SE of a Muscatine to Bloomfield line with sleet and freezing rain mixing in; while an 8:1 ratio will be found S and E of a Clinton, Iowa City, to Chariton line; a 10:1 ratio will be S of a Dubuque to Des Moines line. Given pockets of elevated instability (MUCAPE), shear, and strong upward motion; convective banding should occur during this period between Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, providing locally higher snowfall rates. Late in the day Wednesday during the second round of heavier snowfall, overall ratios will be higher - on the order of 15:1 along a Clinton to Des Moines line - higher to the north and lower to the south.

- bill

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by Bill Schintler
...During the first period of heavy precipitation tonight, a 6:1 snow/water ratio will be occur SE of a Muscatine to Bloomfield line with sleet and freezing rain mixing in; while an 8:1 ratio will be found S and E of a Clinton, Iowa City, to Chariton line; a 10:1 ratio will be S of a Dubuque to Des Moines line. Given pockets of elevated instability (MUCAPE), shear, and strong upward motion; convective banding should occur during this period between Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, providing locally higher snowfall rates. Late in the day Wednesday during the second round of heavier snowfall, overall ratios will be higher - on the order of 15:1 along a Clinton to Des Moines line - higher to the north and lower to the south.

- bill

I would be careful about going as low as 10:1 ratio -- Climatology suggests that a temperature through the column of -6C to -3C in the low levels would yeild a 15 to 1 ratio, not to mention the good snow growth potential/flake size. The last event in the Ohio Valley, which was also a southern stream storm, with a column temperature of -3C to -5C yeilded a 15 to 1 ratio... Howerver, the 8 to 1 looks right for the mixed precipitation areas.

rdale

01-04-2005, 11:08 AM

Good snowfall ratio site at http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowra...tio/sr_intro.pl (http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_intro.pl) says about 10:1 for Mid-Michigan which I'll take...

Jeff Lawson

01-04-2005, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead

I noticed this interesting boundary on radar returns last night stretching from just north of Omaha(or right on me) clear northeast to more returns. The eta forecast snowfall is tracing that line. The line/boundary is still there this morning.

I noticed that feature as well (it was visible when the radar was in clear air mode, at least).

I'm prepared for at least 10" here in Bellevue, perhaps more. The question, really, is how much sleet will mix in early this afternoon. Looking at the radar (UEX), the precip shield approaching from the west has a snow appearance along and north of I-80, with a patchy sleet appearance to the south. That meshes pretty well with current surface obs. I have a feeling I'll be in all snow here before too long.

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by rdale
Good snowfall ratio site at http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowra...tio/sr_intro.pl (http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_intro.pl) says about 10:1 for Mid-Michigan which I'll take...

I have been messing around with that site for awhile now, I found it during the past event. With a 10 to 1 ratio, snow should stick to everything :D

Hopefully we can get some convective snows, which doesn't look completely out of question... The last time I see lightning and snow was the Jan 1999 event, and then 1996 during a lake effect event near Marquette.

I was looking at some records, and Detroit sets at 24.5 inches set back in April of 1886. The snow was reported to be so wet and heavy, that they had to use crobars and ice picks to "brush" the snow away. I am guessing a 10 to 1 ratio was also used for that storm given the warmer air, and that would be an unheard of 2.45 inches of liquid!

\"Snow began at 12:30 AM and fell light until about 4:30 AM when it began to fall heavy and a tremendous fall of snow continued all day, ending at 9:00 PM. The fall at 7:00 AM was 4.6\" and at 3:00 PM was 17.1\" and at 11:00 PM, 2.4\" making the total of 24.1 inches melted from the snow gauge. The rain gauge was soon snowed full and was practically useless. Total fall of the snow on the level was 24.5 inches. The snow was badly drifted by the heavy gale. The drifts in some places were 12 feet high and the snow in the street was from 10\" to 40\" inches deep. A heavy north gale set in at 1:45 AM and raged in fury all day reaching 40 miles north at 2:15 PM and continued all the remainder of the day. Its force with the snow was appalling. It blew the snow in fine particles against the face, cutting like a knife.\"

Source: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/1886-1974.htm

Tim Stoecklein

01-04-2005, 11:58 AM

Well, while you guys in Nebraska are deciding how much snow you're going to have to shovel, we are wondering how much ice it will take to knock out our power, lol.

We will most likely be on the "mix" side of things and they're calling for 1/2" to 1" of ice followed by a lovely coating of 1 to 3 inches of snow by tomorrow. The trees are already slouching under the weight of minimal ice cover from the last two nights. Another round of ice will take many trees and powerlines down for sure.

Good news though...I just got word that they are shutting down the University so my office is closing as well. Time to go hall some firewood up to the house in preparation for power outage :o

Tim

Mike Smith

01-04-2005, 12:28 PM

In northeast Wichita, just west of KAAO, we have about 1/3 of an inch of ice coating trees. Some branches and even tree limbs down.

Andrew Geil

01-04-2005, 12:29 PM

Lisa Wadlow

01-04-2005, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by Andrew Geil
Down here in the middle and southern parts of the state, it looks like we're just gonna get rained and rained and rained on. Break out the ark.

Same for here in MO although we did get a bit of lightning/thunder :D . More heavy rain and slight chance of t-storms through tomorrow but the temps should stay above freezing until tomorrow night. I'm loving the rain...I'm dreading anything frozen that might come our way tomorrow night. The bit of lightning/thunder the other night did help relieve my SDS a bit.

Aaron Kennedy

01-04-2005, 12:55 PM

Well, if yer in northern Illinois, it sounds like yer going to get socked. Down here in the middle and southern parts of the state, it looks like we're just gonna get rained and rained and rained on. Break out the ark.

Doh!!!! Someone has it out for me.... I'm sitting in Rockford... 20min from the WI border and get the car back today with a new transmission (I'm already a week late coming home), and now this! I wanted to see snow, but my break has been ruined as far as getting things done. With all this bad luck.... I'm due for something good to happen (orange bowl anyone!!!).

Aaron

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by Aaron Kennedy
Well, if yer in northern Illinois, it sounds like yer going to get socked. Down here in the middle and southern parts of the state, it looks like we're just gonna get rained and rained and rained on. Break out the ark.

Doh!!!! Someone has it out for me.... I'm sitting in Rockford... 20min from the WI border and get the car back today with a new transmission (I'm already a week late coming home), and now this! I wanted to see snow, but my break has been ruined as far as getting things done. With all this bad luck.... I'm due for something good to happen (orange bowl anyone!!!).

Aaron

The latest 18Z ETA actually brings the heavy snow into your location by 06Z tomorrow (or tonight rather, depending on how you view it). The ETA breaks precipitation out much sooner, as it has increased it's 700mb RH values and vertical velocity across that region compared to the 00Z and 12Z runs... Someone (or quite a few people) are going to get socked from IA to MI with snow, and then the damaging ice storm a bit further south of that from KS to PA.

EDIT: Wow, I was checking the 12Z ETA for a more in depth review of the mid level features, the ETA shows a very intense and elongated TROWAL setting up from PA westward to IA! Typically, areas near the TROWAL get the heaviest snows, particularly when the column is saturated and good lifting is present. CSI is also looking intense, with a few areas showing low level theta distrotion/decreasing value with height, indicating the possibility of pure convective instability... Again, combined with the frontogenesis and saturated column, things could get real interesting -- Thundersnow anyone?

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 03:06 PM

Just read the latest discussions and it confirms what I thought about the TROWAL and CSI (who's da man?! LOL):

Source: GRR
AN DECENT TROWAL(TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) SETS UP ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR WED NIGH AND THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWS
SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THIS HEAVIER SNOW MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS COULD GO HIGHER IF THE SNOW TURNS
CONVECTIVE. IS DID NOTICE SOME THETA E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT WED
NIGHT.

Obviously I didn't have to post that little quote in here, because people can look it up elsewhere, but I find it extremely important to the current conversation, and well within the constraints of ST guidelines... In addition, many people probably wouldn't look up little ol' Grand Rapids NWS :lol:

rdale

01-04-2005, 03:25 PM

This is the same forecaster that called for up to 3" yesterday and we got 1/2", and the same office that up til just now said we weren't going to get any accums tonight...

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by rdale
This is the same forecaster that called for up to 3\" yesterday and we got 1/2\", and the same office that up til just now said we weren't going to get any accums tonight...

Yeah, but at least his analysis of the TROWAL and CSI is correct. As far as accumulations, I can't really say, but the 18Z ETA has beefed up QPF across our region compared to the 12Z run, while keeping cooling the low levels slightly over the extreme southeast portion of the state. I don't think 8-12 inches (and possibly more) is out of the question...

Dan Cook

01-04-2005, 03:40 PM

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 06:04 PM

Just wanted to put an update in on the 18Z GFS... The QPF axis has trended slightly to the south, where the ETA has actually trended a bit to the north. Looking at the current NOWRAD and comparing it to the 18Z ETA for the 21Z-00Z timeframe, it appears to be slightly too light with QPF over central IA, where it is currently snowing moderately with visibility around 1/2 mile, and in southern MN, where there is already 2 inches on the ground.

Overall, the ETA depicts the snow across southern MN and IA better than the GFS, but it doesn't do so well with the precipitation over the Ohio Valley. The GFS does a better job over the Ohio Valley, but is over 25 miles too far south, and it's also too light over northern MO.

Dan Cook

01-04-2005, 07:58 PM

Just started up here; snow's very wet.

Joel Wright

01-04-2005, 08:15 PM

Well since we don't have a NOW thread for this, and I'm not sure if we would even do that for winter weather, here's my local report..

It's been lightly freezing rain here for the past few hours. The trees and powerlines already had a thin coating of ice (roughly around two tenths) from the freezing rain yesterday. It is coming down pretty good right now. The snow line is about 20-30 miles north of here and is fighting very strong waa. So it looks like it could stay ice here much of the night which would spell big trouble for sure due to the above. My home thermometer reads 31.3° and has remained nearly steady.

It's kind of spooky, just sitting here with music on low I can still here the trees make that crunching sound when the wind blows. Erie...

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by Dan Cook
Just started up here; snow's very wet.

Wow, I just did a Mapquest for your location, you look like your right on the edge of the rain/snow/mix line... I'm actually surprised your not getting sleet or freezing rain...

Joel Wright

01-04-2005, 08:24 PM

Hmmm, now I'm starting to wonder. I just checked the latest ob from DVN, which is about 15 miles as the crow flies northwest of me and they are now reporting snow. Now I'm starting to wonder if it's going to switch to snow here much sooner now. I'm going to start losing my hair!:-p

rdale

01-04-2005, 08:32 PM

TAMDAR sounding on a plane that just landed at Quad Cities show max temp of 30* at 8080ft.

Andy Wehrle

01-04-2005, 08:33 PM

Light snow falling near Stoughton (southeast of Madison). MKX gives us a range of 6-14 inches possible over the next 36 hours. Winter storm watch and snow advisory out. Looking forward to perhaps the first decent heavy snowfall in my corner of south-central Wisconsin in several years.

Tonight: Periods of snow, mainly after midnight. Low near 19. North wind between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday: Periods of snow. High near 23. Northeast wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Periods of snow. Low around 17. North wind between 9 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible

Dan Cook

01-04-2005, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div><!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook
Just started up here; snow's very wet.

Wow, I just did a Mapquest for your location, you look like your right on the edge of the rain/snow/mix line... I'm actually surprised your not getting sleet or freezing rain...[/b]

Northern IL's in the freezing line?

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 08:42 PM

NGM and ETA have both upped their QPF amounts towards 1.25 inches, at least for my neck of the woods. However, the ETA has also pushed the 850mb 0C isotherm into my neighborhood at 36HRS, and shows some sleet mixing in. I really hope the ETA could slide the 850mb 0C isotherm about 25 miles to the east, because I HATE sleet, it doesn't accumulate well, and kills snow accumulations.

The NGM sets me confortably below freezing in the low levels (the SFC will be in the 20's, no matter what model is used), and would produce more snow -- But, the NGM usually sucks at forecasting thermal profiles, to put it bluntly...

Joel Wright

01-04-2005, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by rdale
TAMDAR sounding on a plane that just landed at Quad Cities show max temp of 30* at 8080ft.

Wow. That's some pretty cool info.

And I'm an idiot. I just stepped outside and guess what? Sleet and HUGE flakes of snow are now coming down. And with that, I am done making forecast lmao!!

Well anyway, since the latest (OZ) models all forecast nearly 1.25" of liquid for my immediate area, I guess that means we're going to get a foot of snow now if that verifies.

Obviously this could be overdone, some of that covection to the south could easily cut some of that down. And there's always the possibility in these banding situations to get caught in a "lull band" for quite some time. Which can kill amounts as well.

So basically I'll believe it when I see it. ;-)

Robert Dewey

01-04-2005, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by Dan Cook+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dan Cook)</div>Originally posted by rdewey@
<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook
Just started up here; snow's very wet.

Wow, I just did a Mapquest for your location, you look like your right on the edge of the rain/snow/mix line... I'm actually surprised your not getting sleet or freezing rain...

Northern IL's in the freezing line?[/b]

Okay, for some reason I was thinking you were in Macomb, IL... Which is above 0C at 850mb. I then seen a post that said Rockford is about 20 minutes north of you, which would actually put you right on the 0C 850mb line, take your pick, LOL

Jeff Lawson

01-04-2005, 08:52 PM

Originally, it was expected we'd start the event off with some sleet and freezing rain here around Omaha, but when the precip really got going around noon, I saw about two minutes worth of sleet before the snow kicked in. It's been snowing non-stop ever since. Accumulations are only about 2-3" so far, but I DO have a 27" drift inside my patio door. (http://www.jefflawson.net/wx/funky_drift.jpg) :P

Forecast here calls for 10-15" with isolated amounts to 18". That's a lot of snow.

Dan Cook

01-04-2005, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div>Originally posted by Dan Cook+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dan Cook)<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey@
<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook
Just started up here; snow's very wet.

Wow, I just did a Mapquest for your location, you look like your right on the edge of the rain/snow/mix line... I'm actually surprised your not getting sleet or freezing rain...

Northern IL's in the freezing line?[/b]

Okay, for some reason I was thinking you were in Macomb, IL... Which is above 0C at 850mb. I then seen a post that said Rockford is about 20 minutes north of you, which would actually put you right on the 0C 850mb line, take your pick, LOL[/b][/quote]

How about NE IL? 8)

David Schuttler

01-04-2005, 10:11 PM

1 to 1& 1/2 inches of ice predicted for n.w. and n.central oklahoma tonight and wed.

Ben Prusia

01-04-2005, 11:38 PM

Right now out here in the Kansas City area, we got about a 1/2 inch of ice on the ground here in western Shawnee, the streets have a coating of sleet on it, a slushy kind of sleet. The freezing rain/sleet mix has picked up again and looks like we are in it for the rest of the night, hopefully my power doesn't go out!

Jeff Wear

01-05-2005, 12:38 AM

looks like the northwestern quadrant of Oklahoma may currently be seeing a repeat of the 1/29/2002 ice storm - thunderstorms are continuing to fire over southeastern NM and the southern TX panhandle and training northeast over the cold air into northwest OK. we could be seeing a lot of mangled trees and brand new power poles across chase country this spring if it's anything like the 2002 storm.

still 35.1 and drizzle here in Norman - hope our trusted force field holds up and keeps the freeze line north of us.

Sam Sagnella

01-05-2005, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by Jeff Wear
looks like the northwestern quadrant of Oklahoma may currently be seeing a repeat of the 1/29/2002 ice storm

Am anticipating fairly significant icing here (SW Connecticut), but was scanning the AFDs and came across this strong wording (necessary) from the NWSFO OUN:

..A DEVASTATING ICE STORM WILL BE THE RESULT..AND MAJOR ICE ACCUMS ARE NOW EXPECTED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE I-44 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ALMOST ASSUREDLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ICE STORM WARNING FARTHER SOUTH SOON...PERHAPS INCLUDING THE OKC METRO AREA.

Jeff Wear

01-05-2005, 02:24 AM

looking at mesonet data quite a few stations across northwest OK are reporting calm winds or no wind data - a sign that the anemometers are probably iced up....

http://www.mesonet.ou.edu/public/current.html

Robert Dewey

01-05-2005, 07:14 AM

I expect to see some pictures of the ice storm! LOL

Well, sitting here just north of Detroit, the NWS has downgraded our winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory for a total of 5 to 8 inches of snow. I already have 2.5 inches, and it's still coming down at a moderate clip (my area wasn't supposed to have hardly any snow yet).

Looking at the infrared loop, a massive core of -65C cloud tops has started to develop just to the northwest of the main heavy precipitation axis over MO and IL. Watervapor loop also shows an extensive area of moisture headed towards my area. Looking at radar, it appears that a nice band is trying to setup to the northwest of the main precipitation axis, which could mess up the current forecast of 1 to 2 inches for today. It will be interesting to watch over the next hour or so, and see if that development weakens, rotates to the east, or blasts into the area...

rdale

01-05-2005, 07:41 AM

"my area wasn't supposed to have hardly any snow yet"

Just curious - why didn't you think you'd see any snow overnight? I had 1-2" for most of the region with 2-4" south of I-94 last night...

Robert Dewey

01-05-2005, 07:49 AM

Originally posted by rdale
\"my area wasn't supposed to have hardly any snow yet\"

Just curious - why didn't you think you'd see any snow overnight? I had 1-2\" for most of the region with 2-4\" south of I-94 last night...

Well, I expected light accumulation, but NWS DTX didn't mention any accumulations except for 2-3 inches for the far southeastern 4 counties (thus the winter storm warning because of the additional snow last night/this morning). Our local TV stations also didn't mention anything overnight for areas north of Detroit either...

Joel Wright

01-05-2005, 08:06 AM

Wow. I'm impressed. It's been snowing now for almost 12hrs off and on. We are almost up to a whole inch. At this pace we could get close to a whole 2"!

So far the models have way overestimated QPF at least here locally. We were forecasted by most of the models to have over .50" liquid. Granted the main part of the storm hasn't arrived yet, but I am far from impressed.

Dan Cook

01-05-2005, 08:33 AM

Just came back in from snow blowing: we've got about 5 inches I'd say. NWS still saying main event later today and tonight.

so far:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v230/dbc100/jan%205%20winter%20storm/P1050001.jpg

Just looked outside: snowing pretty good again.

Jeff Lawson

01-05-2005, 09:14 AM

We have about 7" of accumulation so far. The snow let up for a brief period around sunrise, but it's picked up again over the past hour or so. Heavy snow expected later today with the approaching low.

http://www.jefflawson.net/wx/jan05_snow_morning.jpg

I think the guy across the street ran the snowblower across his lawn.

Andrew Geil

01-05-2005, 09:35 AM

Gotta protect that grass from the evil snow.

No snow here yet around Champaign-Urbana (Illinois), but in the last ten to fifteen minutes, we went from a steady soggy rain to ice pellets falling and covering everything in sight. Cars and mailboxes are already glazed over, and the trees are turning white.

Mike Hollingshead

01-05-2005, 10:09 AM

http://www.extremeinstability.com/stormpics/d2732.jpg

Looking outside my window this morning. This stuff is blowing around like nothing I've seen, about. Winds aren't real strong or anything, it just started off powdery ontop of a coat of ice and is blowing off of everything. Notice my car, center car, I've not moved it since it started, so it has not been cleaned off. Going to be some big drifts when the real snow starts later today. Already is some pretty nice drifting happening, obviously.

Tim Stoecklein

01-05-2005, 11:12 AM

Once again Mike, you've stolen our snow from us. We were in the transition area here in Manhattan, so we've got about a quarter inch of ice on everything. It sleeted all last evening, so we have a hardpack on the lawn that I could even break through when walking out to the shed to get another load of firewood, lol. Now it has finally started snowing this morning, but not fast enough to catch up with Mike's drifts.

Oh well, they closed the University so I don't have to go to work again today :P Better get the shovel out H, or you're not going to be able to find the car by this evening. Enjoy it, you guys in the "midwest", sounds like Chicago is getting it already with the airport delays.

Tim

Jeff Lawson

01-05-2005, 12:26 PM

I didn't fully realize how much snow we had until I got to shoveling the driveway. And we're going to get another 8-10" on top of this? (http://www.jefflawson.net/nowhere/inline_images/010505b_large.jpg) Jeez. I'm moving back to Texas.

Robert Dewey

01-05-2005, 01:02 PM

Well, I'm not so sure I'm going to be gettin all snow after all... The 12Z ETA brings in a pretty thick warm layer aloft, reaching close to 5C at 850mb, with nearly 0.50 inches of QPF, which would most likely be ice. Both the NGM and GFS are colder, and would be all snow... All of the mesoscale models keep the 0C 850mb line pretty far south of my area, so I would be more inclined to say all snow, but who knows...

Jeff Wear

01-05-2005, 01:13 PM

Here in Norman icing was fairly minimal - there is a light coating on bushes and especially cars, but thankfully the period between the time the temp fell below freezing and the precip changed over to sleet was fairly brief. Sleet was quite heavy at times between about 9-11am. Temp is down to 23.0 now so everything has turned to ice - including all the standing water around from the 1"+ of liquid rain we had early this morning.

I put up some pics of my ice covered car and the sleet covered ground here....

http://www.theperksofchasing.com/accounts/...5/pix050105.htm (http://www.theperksofchasing.com/accounts/2005/050105/pix050105.htm)

Jon Miller

01-05-2005, 01:19 PM

We're currently (Wed) having an ice storm here in west central Ohio - got about a 1/4" of ice on everything so far since this morning - 1/2" to 1" of ice predicted for this area by tomorrow -which I hope they're wrong ! I'll take snow any day over ice but better yet - rain.

Mikey Gribble

01-05-2005, 01:57 PM

In Wichita we have some serious power problems. We had significant icing on trees and power lines but the roads didn't start to freeze until it changed to sleet so the streets aren't real slick. We lost power at our house Tuesday morning and it still hasn't come back yet. They were saying on the news that it could take up to a week to get all the power back on. The tempature in the house was in the mid 30's this morning. Wichita has the layer of ice and sleet and then maybe an inch of snow. This sucks.

Aaron Kennedy

01-05-2005, 02:35 PM

4" was the average measurement as of 2pm in Rockford. 11" was the max in drifts.

Aaron

Robert Dewey

01-05-2005, 03:48 PM

Doesn't look like our NWS offices are communicating with each other very well:

We have a snow advisory for 5-8 inches of snow, surrounded by a winter storm warning for 5-8 inches of snow, with a winter storm watch just north of the advisory. And, of course, I live in the "advisory" area... Looks like their always out to ruin my storm! :lol:

http://www.waveformpc.com/warnings.JPG

Jeremy Lemanski

01-05-2005, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by rdewey
Doesn't look like our NWS offices are communicating with each other very well:

We have a snow advisory for 5-8 inches of snow, surrounded by a winter storm warning for 5-8 inches of snow, with a winter storm watch just north of the advisory. And, of course, I live in the \"advisory\" area... Looks like their always out to ruin my storm! :lol:

http://www.waveformpc.com/warnings.JPG

oh, i love what DTX has done. We have a winter storm watch up about 12 hours before the event starts. APX has up to a foot along lake huron because of lake enhancment, which means the thumb should get roughly around the same. they have winter storm warnings up. :?: :?: I'm confused.

BTW, you notice there seems to be alot of new forecasters at DTX based on there little sig. at the bottom of the discussions. maybe they are rookies and don't have the knowledge of the local area?

Robert Dewey

01-05-2005, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeremy Lemanski)</div><!--QuoteBegin-rdewey
Doesn't look like our NWS offices are communicating with each other very well:

We have a snow advisory for 5-8 inches of snow, surrounded by a winter storm warning for 5-8 inches of snow, with a winter storm watch just north of the advisory. And, of course, I live in the \"advisory\" area... Looks like their always out to ruin my storm! :lol:

...

oh, i love what DTX has done. We have a winter storm watch up about 12 hours before the event starts. APX has up to a foot along lake huron because of lake enhancment, which means the thumb should get roughly around the same. they have winter storm warnings up. :?: :?: I'm confused.

BTW, you notice there seems to be alot of new forecasters at DTX based on there little sig. at the bottom of the discussions. maybe they are rookies and don't have the knowledge of the local area?[/b]

Yeah, actually APX is calling for close to a foot for tomorrow, GRR says roughly 5-8 tonight/tomorrow (with a warning), while DTX says 5-8 tonight (with an advisory)... I thought 8 inches is warning criteria? For a 12 hour period, 6 or more is a warning, and for a 24 hour period, 8 or more is a warning... :?:

Robert Dewey

01-05-2005, 04:15 PM

Does anyone know what's going on over CO with this upper level low on the WV loop?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/...lt_big&itype=wv (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv)

It looks like the upper level low is actually spinning clockwise, as of 5:15PM ET.

Aaron Kennedy

01-05-2005, 04:59 PM

5" or so around 4pm in RFD.... heavy stuff just started.

http://weather.ou.edu/~akennedy/snowfortback.jpg

I'm still stuck in Rockford and bored so I decided to practice my snow fort skillz ;)

Aaron

Joel Wright

01-05-2005, 07:50 PM

Haha, nice pic Aaron.

I haven't looked to see what we've got officially, but it looks like about 3-4". A few more hours of snow left, so we'll probably end up with about 5". I've been more impressed by Alberta clippers....

Jeff Lawson

01-05-2005, 07:51 PM

It's been snowing heavily here since 5:00 PM, although it looks to finally let up in the next couple of hours.

Before I shoveled the driveway this afternoon, I measured 8". Just went outside a minute ago and measured a new 6" in the same spot. So, that would bring my storm total here on the south side of Bellevue to 14" so far. Given the snowfall rates and looking at radar, I'm guessing we could pick up another 1-3" before all is said and done. Tonight's snowfall has been VERY productive.

Mike Hollingshead

01-05-2005, 08:03 PM

LOL Aaron. Man, while you are building forts I was snow blowing a damn long rock driveway. It was a fun couple hours, at first anyway. I have never in my life ran a snow blower. I was always fortunate enough to own shovels. After dragging the thing 70-100 yards from the shed through 1-2 foot piles of snow it got more enjoyable. Why my dad didn't take the thing out of the shed and bring it to the driveway yesterday I haven't a clue, other then knowing he'd just mention it to me incase I "felt motivated". I was bored so I decided to do their driveway and man those things are fun. Was laughing so damn hard shooting the snow up and over the wall in the driveway, I'd guess 20-30 feet high into the air. I was ready to snow blow all of Blair at that point. Anyway here is a pic outside my apt window around 7:30 just now, snowing like mad. Shadow is the lens.

http://www.extremeinstability.com/stormpics/d2737.jpg

Robert Dewey

01-05-2005, 08:08 PM

Well, here I sit just north of Detroit with roughly 2.0 - 2.5 inches of snow. It snowed all last night and this morning, and then started again at 5PM ET. The snow has been real powdery and the flakes are very small in size, so it doesn't accumulate well.

The system seems to be developing more precip on the back side (and looks somewhat convective in nature), just to the east of Joel, which would slide through my region. Maybe I will get lucky and get stuck under one of those rare convective snow bands for 8 hours, LOL...

One thing is for sure, this definately wasn't a January 1999 style storm for me!

David Schuttler

01-05-2005, 08:32 PM

Here is some pics from my weekly trip to Winfield , KS today

http://www.stormdriven.com/winterof05.html

http://stormdriven.web.aplus.net/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/0105053.jpg

Joel Wright

01-05-2005, 10:06 PM

This storm was just an average little snow here. We are just about to be dry slotted and that should end the storm. I have a bit over 4" here. If I would have known this is what we would have got, I wouldn't have even watched the storm.

Just like I said the other day, sometimes you can get stuck in a "lull band." That's exactly what happened here. Heavy bands would approach and litterally evaporate as it neared here. Then a new band of intense snow would form later on on the otherside of us and move on. I guess sometimes luck is not on your side if you want snow.

Oh well, I'm hoping for an Alberta clipper, maybe that will bring some excitement here. :x

Robert Dewey

01-05-2005, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by Joel Wright
This storm was just an average little snow here. We are just about to be dry slotted and that should end the storm. I have a bit over 4\" here. If I would have known this is what we would have got, I wouldn't have even watched the storm.

Just like I said the other day, sometimes you can get stuck in a \"lull band.\" That's exactly what happened here. Heavy bands would approach and litterally evaporate as it neared here. Then a new band of intense snow would form later on on the otherside of us and move on. I guess sometimes luck is not on your side if you want snow.

Oh well, I'm hoping for an Alberta clipper, maybe that will bring some excitement here. :x

I'll tell ya, one of our biggest snowstorms was an Alberta Clipper. It was last year, I believe, and was the strongest clipper I can remember. I got nearly 12 inches from that storm... Our original forecast called for 2-4 inches, upped to 3-5 inches with a snow advisory, and then quickly switching to a winter storm warning for 8-12 inches (all within 12 hours). What made the storm what it was, was the very high snow ratio of nearly 40 to 1, with QPF only amounting to 0.30 inches or so.

Jeff Lawson

01-05-2005, 10:36 PM

Snow is finally coming to an end here. It's still snowing lightly, but I doubt it'll amount to more than an inch before completely ending.

Anyway, my storm total (since the onset of snow Monday afternoon) in Bellevue, NE (Sarpy County) is 17 inches.

fplowman

01-06-2005, 01:38 AM

check, check, .. testing.... It colder than hell .. well It cold here.. .lol

Lisa Wadlow

01-06-2005, 11:16 AM

Only a little dusting of snow and ice here but a lot of flooding problems starting and the rivers aren't expected to crest until tomorrow. A lot of crazy people trying to drive through flooded roads and getting carried away by the water. This storm set a record for 2005 for having the most precip the first 5 days of Jan here. They're predicting more rain in a few days so that will add to the problem.

Bill Schintler

01-06-2005, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by Bill Schintler
Forecast Snowfall amounts:
9\" - 12\" along and 20 mi either side of a Creston, IA, to Iowa City to Quad Cities line.
6\" - 9\" along and south of a Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Clinton line.
3\" - 5\" along and south of a Storm Lake to Waterloo line.
South of a Creston to Washington line, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain will mix in with lighter snowfall totals. Further south in MO and IL, a very significant ice storm will occur.
- bill

Official snowfall totals:
Iowa City: 10"
Cedar Rapids: 12"
Clinton: 8"
Waterloo: 10"
Des Moines: 10.1"

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/snowfall.shtml

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/...all20050106.png (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/20050106_Snow/Snowfall20050106.png)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/...0050106Snow.htm (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/20050106_Snow/20050106Snow.htm)

General comments: it looks like some significantly heavier amounts in northeastern IA then forecasted... Alot of banding set up there in the deformation zone, along with much higher snow-to-liquid ratios there - perhaps well above 20:1 in northeastern IA. Also, as far as guidence, it looks like the GFS probably did the best for QPF from for the period 6hr to 24hr before the event, in Iowa. The 12Z Eta (yesterday) still had very high QPF in southeastern IA for the period ending 06Z, which in reality ended up getting dryslotted early in the evening. The GFS was also better for upper low position and strength, main vort max, and UVV's for the same period as these features tracked across IA yesterday evening - bill

Robert Dewey

01-06-2005, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by Bill Schintler+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Bill Schintler)</div><!--QuoteBegin-Bill Schintler
Forecast Snowfall amounts:
9\" - 12\" along and 20 mi either side of a Creston, IA, to Iowa City to Quad Cities line.
6\" - 9\" along and south of a Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Clinton line.
3\" - 5\" along and south of a Storm Lake to Waterloo line.
South of a Creston to Washington line, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain will mix in with lighter snowfall totals. Further south in MO and IL, a very significant ice storm will occur.
- bill

Official snowfall totals:
Iowa City: 10"
Cedar Rapids: 12"
Clinton: 8"
Waterloo: 10"
Des Moines: 10.1"

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/snowfall.shtml

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/...all20050106.png (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/20050106_Snow/Snowfall20050106.png)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/...0050106Snow.htm (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/20050106_Snow/20050106Snow.htm)

General comments: it looks like some significantly heavier amounts in northeastern IA then forecasted... Alot of banding set up there in the deformation zone, along with much higher snow-to-liquid ratios there - perhaps well above 20:1 in northeastern IA. Also, as far as guidence, it looks like the GFS probably did the best for QPF from for the period 6hr to 24hr before the event, in Iowa. The 12Z Eta (yesterday) still had very high QPF in southeastern IA for the period ending 06Z, which in reality ended up getting dryslotted early in the evening. The GFS was also better for upper low position and strength, main vort max, and UVV's for the same period as these features tracked across IA yesterday evening - bill[/b]

I would agree about the snow ratios, once the baroclinic zone moved away...

The comma head precipitation was pretty well forecasted by the ETA forecast of a very strong TROWAL at 500-700MB combined with good frontogenesis. Also, the theta surfaces on the cross sections showed good CSI, and in some cases flat out convective instability (decreasing theta with height) through the TROWAL. This combined with the wrap around moisture to allow for some decent banded precipitation to develop.

This event also had alot of dry air working against it... If you were unlucky and got caught in one of the "holes", you ended up with little snow (like me). There was another event last year that had a very similar setup -- Dry high pressure just to the north, and a very moist system to the south -- The original NWS forecast called for 8-12 inches, but then dropped quickly as snow flakes remained very small, and snow never became heavy (ended up with 2-3 inches). I have now learned my lesson, and will be very skeptical of heavy snowstorms if there is a center of high pressure within 500 miles of the area of interest (maybe I will do some case studies on this)...

As for this past event, I ended up with 4.5 inches of powdery snow...

Aaron Kennedy

01-06-2005, 12:51 PM

9" total at the house in Rockford, IL. Not too shabby since I told my mom 3 days out we could see around 10" of snow lol. She thought I was joking. Just the week before Dr. Mom who thinks she has a metr. phd was telling me about how the climate has changed drastically and Rockford never sees large snows anymore. Haven't heard her say anything else lately ;)

Aaron

Darin Brunin

01-06-2005, 01:22 PM

Here in Lawrence we escaped the most of the snow getting about 1"-2" but got a decent amount of ice.

A few pictures that I took can be seen at:

http://photobucket.com/albums/v226/brunind...da/ice%20storm/ (http://photobucket.com/albums/v226/bruninda/ice%20storm/)?

Darin

mikegeukes

01-06-2005, 03:04 PM

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 AM CST THU JAN 6 2005

...SNOWFALL TOTAL REACHES 14.1 INCHES AT OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD...

THE SNOWFALL THAT BEGAN THE EVENING OF JANUARY 4TH AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE EVENING OF THE 5TH WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS
THE MOST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SINCE 1987.

ON MARCH 28TH-29TH 14.1 INCHES OF SNOW WAS ALSO REPORTED AT OMAHA
EPPLEY AIRFIELD.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE OTHER TWO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLS THAT EXCEEDED 14.1 INCHES...

#1 18.9 INCHES MARCH 14-15, 1923
#2 18.5 INCHES FEBRUARY 11-12, 1965

* THE GREATEST 24-HR SNOWFALL IN OMAHA 18.3 INCHES FEBRUARY 11, 1965
Snowfall Totals from NWS Chicago:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KCHI/0501061625.nous43.html

Snowfall Totals from NWS Davenport:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDVN/0501061811.nous43.html

Snowfall Totals from NWS Des Moines:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDSM/0501061347.nous43.html

Snowfall Totals from NWS Detroit:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDTX/0501062046.nous43.html

Snowfall Totals from NWS Gaylord:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KAPN/0501062047.nous43.html

Snowfall Totals from NWS Grand Rapids:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/0501061956.nous43.html

Snowfall Totals from NWS La Crosse:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLSE/0501061956.nous43.html

Snowfall Totals from NWS Omaha:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOMA/0501061817.nous43.html

Mike

mikegeukes

01-06-2005, 05:06 PM

Preliminary Snowfall Map Totals
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/wxpns/jan06_snow.gif -NWS Chicago
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/...0050106Snow.htm (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/20050106_Snow/20050106Snow.htm) -NWS Davenport
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/WX_events/Snow...n05-06-2005.jpg (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/WX_events/SnowfallTotalsJan05-06-2005.jpg) -NWS Des Monines

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/events/snow200...00501061550.php (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/events/snow200501061550.php) -NWS Detroit
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/ifps/SnowMap/ -NWS Grand Rapids
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/display.php?fn...jan05/snow.html (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/display.php?fname=svrwx/events05/05jan05/snow.html) -NWS Hastings

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/events/Snowfal...lTotals0106.php (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/events/SnowfallTotals0106.php) -NWS Kansas City
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/events/jan0505.php -NWS La Crosse
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/jansnow.gif -NWS Milwaukee

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/ahps/images/cl...ps/Snowfall.gif (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/ahps/images/climatemaps/Snowfall.gif) -NWS North Webster
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/news/map.jpg -NWS Omaha

Mike

Robert Dewey

01-06-2005, 05:13 PM

That snowfall total around LOT appears to be lake enhancement. Seems they always get that during their winter storms, with events that come from the S and SW being of most impact (due to lake trajectory).

Dan Cook

01-06-2005, 06:04 PM

I think we got around a foot; I'm close to Wheaton and that's what they got.

Aaron Kennedy

01-06-2005, 06:23 PM

LOL

Check out the discrepencies between Des Moines and Davenport. Some of the eastern counties have conflicting values of over 5".

Aaron

Jeff Lawson

01-06-2005, 07:04 PM

http://www.jefflawson.net/wx/vw_snow.jpg

I don't know if I'd park MY car there.

Anyway, I've never managed to get myself stuck in mud while storm chasing (not while I was driving, at least), but I've at least discovered what it's like to get stuck in snow. While turning off on a farm road to park and shoot a photo, I mistook a drainage ditch full of snow for the road surface itself. Next thing I know, I've got my passenger side tires stuck in 15" of powder and my driver side tires almost in the air. Thankfully, I had a shovel with me, but even after digging the tires out, there was nothing doing. I was stuck.

Farmer Bob see me, however, so he gets his tractor and comes to pull me out. Unfortunately, he makes the same mistake I did, and before he even gets to me, HE drives off into the ditch.

Eventually, more locals show up, and we get to work trying to get the tractor out. After a half hour or so of digging, pulling, and dismantling (in 2 degree weather, mind you), we manage to pull the tractor out. After that, they pulled me out (only took one try).

Thank goodness for the kindness of Iowa farmers.