4/17/04 FCST:PLAINS [Archive]

Jason A.C. Brock

04-11-2004, 01:31 AM

Dont knwo if this is a good thing or not but I had a dream about two weeks ago of an F3 tornado striking Wichita Falls. Large elephant trunck shape that touches down at the intersection of Seymour Hwy & Fairway near the KFDX TV-3 station and the traverses accross a few open fields & then accross loop 11 then kinda down Iowa Park rd and dissipates before it gets to Sheppard AFB. Also in my dream the event occurs on the 17th and I am film,ing the twister from the Kell Blvd & Fairway overpass on top of it with my chase partner. BTW I checked and my chase partenr has the day off Saturday.......Its also one week after the 25th aniversary of the Red River Terrible Tuesday event next week. Of course since I said all this it wont happen :-p.

Melissa Moon

04-11-2004, 02:34 AM

It's too soon to trust anything really right now for sure, BUT I do have my faith in Saturday. Wanna know why? It's cause the GEOL class at OU is having their second field trip, and that class is full of met majors. It never fails! Their first one was on March 27th and I think both days last year turned out to be good days (I forget what days). Ha! I'm so superstitious :P .

But being realistic, I'll hold my true opinion about this weekend for later on in the week when we can count on more than just how the butterfly flaps its wings.

George Tincher

04-11-2004, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by Amos Magliocco
Do you feel lucky?

LOL! I can't read that without thinking of the classic line from "Dirty Harry" as Clint Eastwood stands over a wounded bank robber, who is contemplating going for his own gun. "I know what you are thinking. Did he fire all 6 shots or only 5. To tell you the truth, I kind of forgot myself in all this excitement. But being this is a .44 magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off, you've gotta ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky? Well do ya punk?"

Ok, now after taking a trip down movie memory lane, I'll attempt to address the real topic. Hehe. Based upon what I've seen, I think next weekend has promise too. It's far to early to say with any certainty what exactly will happen, but I think it's safe to say that at least there will be a system on it's way. And what's even better is that it appears there may be more than one in the not too distant future. Hopefully this rather stagnant and boring pattern we've been in comes to an end next weekend. I think it may. And with that the gates into a very active period may be opened. Again, it's too early to get overly excited, but being the optimist I am, I think there's a good chance for some action. However, I am only willing to say that it will be somewhere between the Rockies and East Coast at this time! :) That's about as far out on a limb as I am willing to go as of right now.

-George

Mike Peregrine

04-11-2004, 09:55 AM

GFS - or whatever the heck they're calling it these days - 96 hr. shows precip nearing SE CO and TX panhandle - 108 shows it over the plains and 120 progresses over NW MO/IA. Looks like there will be some sort of response to low pressure developing alright. Crossing fingers -

Yesterday at spotter training in Lawrence, the wcm from Pleasant Hill said ... "so how many of you are already aware that next weekend might be interesting?" - you know we're stretching looking this far ahead, but I feel lucky.

Robert Dewey

04-11-2004, 02:31 PM

Looks like a the threat for severe weather exists over a wide area late in this up coming week/weekend, from the southern plains into the midwest. If anything else, it will be getting warmer across these areas with temps climbing into the upper 70's as far east as the Great Lakes.

Latest 12Z GFS is also interesting by 180HR showing strong lee-side cyclogenesis (989MB) in the Plains, but thats over a week away, so no telling what will really happen...

Robert

Joel Wright

04-11-2004, 03:53 PM

The system seems to be getting pushed back again. Right now it looks as if southeast Nebraska down into eastern KS and OK may have a lot of fun Sunday. Temps could be pushing 80 with some nicely veering winds aloft. I'm a little pessimistic about low level moisture return however. I'm also a little worried about the system becoming negatively tilted the more the models may slow it down. Oh well, at least it's something to watch. I know I'll personally enjoy the nice warmup even if the storms don't materialize.. 8)

Blake W. Naftel

04-12-2004, 01:31 AM

Stay out of Iowa... very bad!!!

I'll get more serious as to this discussion when the system is 48hrs. out; but for now as per the new GFS, it's looking like a chainsaw chase to northern Wisconsin (off limits for me).

..Blake..

Scott Roberts

04-12-2004, 06:11 AM

I'll throw my hat in with an active upcoming weekend, even without looking at any of this morning's model runs.

Why? The amount of chatter about it among the "weather community." As those of you who were at the Severe Weather conference in Norman early last month may remember, the statement was made several times about the May, 2003 outbreak that "we knew this was coming almost a week out." I distinctly remember the level of chatter about upcoming storms increasing before both the May 2003 and May 1999 events.

My first clue was when the "weather geek" of the station's meteorological staff e-mailed me and the station's primary chaser Sunday with a heads-up for possible severe wx next weekend. The word "severe" doesn't fall out of his mouth unless he's fairly certain. Then I look at the ICT HWO, and they're talking the possibility of severe Sat through Monday. The discussion is even more explict, describing a round on Saturday and a triple point developing in the area on Sunday.

Then I log on here to start a thread about the upcoming weekend, and find it's already been started! Already, five to six days out, we have convergence developing :)

This morning, I fully expect to find all the discussions in the area looking at the severe threat for the weekend. I won't be terribly disappointed if it's all fallen apart -- after all, this is April, but it's also time for the southern jet stream to shift back north, and that is typically an unsettled time.

Other unscientific indicators: we had a dip below freezing this weekend. When the winter pattern makes an appearance in Wichita the second weekend of April, I've noticed a tendency for the storm season to start fairly soon thereafter.

Those who are looking at chasing in this area this weekend, please do me a favor...drop by my web page, http://www.ksstorm.info/about.html and send me an e-mail. I'd like to talk with you about phone reports and possible video ;-)

Now, off to find some shred of scientific backing for my gut instinct reaction to the early chaser convergence :lol:

Scott
(Chase Coordinator, KWCH TV 12, Wichita)

Amos Magliocco

04-12-2004, 11:25 AM

A group of us stayed up late to watch the GFS roll in--dorkiness only true chasers could understand. And while the 0Z wasn't quite as perfect as the earlier run, it's still depicts a powerful system crashing into a juiced boundary layer on Saturday. The potential for severe weather, based on last night's run, looks good from northwest Texas through southwestern KS. Ensembles concur for the most part.

I'll open a second forecast topic for Sunday the 18th, since this looks like a 2 day show.

Eric B'Hymer

04-12-2004, 02:00 PM

I have been looking forward to a servere weather event when i am not working. Fortunately i have sat-tues off and i will be watching the models the rest of the week and getting my equipment ready. If there is anyone from Missouri or eastern kansas that wants to tag along and share expenses give me an email. It is in my profile. Hope to see evryone out this weekend.

Anonymous

04-12-2004, 02:36 PM

I was just thinking what Scott was thinking, I came to post a possible severe weather event in or near the plains and here we are, over 20 posts into this topic already.....I fortunately have the weekend off (for once) this weekend so I will be out if the weather continues to follow our predicted track. I will be where the weather is, I live in OK so I am hoping for somewhere in southern or central OK. We will see.

J.B. Dixon

04-12-2004, 05:08 PM

The latest GFS (120 hr) is putting the warm front action right over SE Nebraska, with a good punch of 60+ dewpoints. If you can get over the horrible visibility aspect, these kind of early north season setups can pay off big time (I'm thinking 8 Apr 99, SW Iowa outbreak).

Why I'm getting fired up this early is beyond me. I know I'm in for a letdown.

Matthew Havin

04-13-2004, 02:04 AM

For the late nite dreamers:

The 0Z Tue 13 Apr AVN run is up....... so let's highlight a few things.

At 0Z Sun (5 days out):

1. NE and IA in left exit region of 250mb jet maxing over NE NM at 117kts.
2. 850mb LLJ from S near 45kts over N central OK and E KS.
3. Central pr near Goodland KS a bit under 996
4. Sfc T >75 and near 80 over W KS, E NE, and S IA (Sat evening)
5. LI -6 over much of IA (CAPE likely >2000)
6. Veering profile 60-70 degrees over KS, IA
7. Model showing 2 good days of Plains warming (Thurs and Fri >75 highs)

I'm not allowing myself to get excited yet, but if the models keep up continuity until Thursday, I'll start packing.

Tony Laubach

04-13-2004, 11:57 AM

Things look like they'll be a bit closer to home for me, at least in terms of a not-so-marathon chase as March 27. If things maintain about the same position, I think I'm going ot head out regardless because I can.

Temps will stay pretty warm throughout the week, and looks as if the moisture will get in there as well. Everything else is still a ways away, enough not to warrent too close a look, but CAPE values look like they could punch 2000, so maybe that'll hold (or get better 8) )... my only concern is the April curse I've had for 4 years now, but with one chase under my belt, I'm hoping to shake that curse.

Still waiting til about Thursday before making any real decisions or excitment, but it gives me something to watch for the next few days. I imagine I'll go as long as the position of things remains about the same in later runs simply because I can be up and back in a day (less mulah). Also have a light week in terms of take-home work as I have exams Wednesday, and had one last Thursday, so nothing too major to keep me in chains. Just hope the car hangs on a bit longer! :)

Ben Cotton

04-13-2004, 01:49 PM

I've mostly been looking at Iowa because that's about as far out as I can go for a Saturday event (a Sunday event would have to be even closer, of course). Given that I live in Indiana, a severe Saturday in Iowa might be my only chance for a while. That having been said, the 12Z GFS doesn't
instill a whole lot of confidence. The shear profile is very nice on
Saturday, in both direction and speed. 2M temps should be in the upper
60s, and there's the chance of some Gulf moisture being brought up by the
850 winds. The big concern is the location of the surface low. 18Z
Saturday, the low will be over southeastern WY, with a warm front
extending across the NE/KS border and just south of IA/MO. By 0Z, the low will still be in sern WY, but the warm front will have moved north into
southern IA and the cold front will be along the CO/NE border and across
the OK/TX panhandles.

It looks like Iowa will be out of the warm sector for most of the day, so
northern Missouri might be a better option. Then again, the target area
might have to be moved further west due to the timing of the system.
Still...this is 100 hours out, so there's plenty of time for conditions to
improve. Tomorrow's 12Z Eta will start picking up on this, and we'll see
where it goes from there.

Ben

Robert Dewey

04-13-2004, 04:42 PM

I have to agree Ben, I'm gonna wait and see what the ETA does, since it is higher resolution and can get a better handle on things in general. I don't have time to head over into IA this weekend, but I'm hoping any leftover activity will be able to make its way into IN/MI region late Sunday.
Anyway, late FRI also looks like it could feature a couple of severe storms across the Great Lakes, with a nice trough swinging through and a bit of directional/speed shear and instability.

Robert

Gabe Garfield

04-13-2004, 06:37 PM

Major turn-around from the 12Z models (and the 18Z ETA) with regard to moisture availability for this weekend. The ETA and now even the GFS (which typically underforecasts moisture) are indicating at least lower 60s dewpoints starting Friday. ETA progs mid-upper 60 dewpoints across the entire southern plains by Friday evening. The Gulf looks like it will open wide, so we should see our first maritime tropical airmass of the season in the southern plains.

With this in mind, I believe this weekend(and into next week) WILL be awesome. Wind fields are now the concern, not the moisture. Mind you, wind fields already look decent (as progged by the models). I have been extremely cautious with this system (since models vary so widely 5-7 days out), but it looks like the moisture issue (which was my main concern) won't be one after all.

Gabe

Blake W. Naftel

04-13-2004, 07:19 PM

Discussing the upcoming system with others off the forum; Not a fan of model wishcasting until down to the final 36-24 hours before a chase, however GFS is staying persistent (shifting the low slightly east). Now swaggering into a "believable" time frame -- I think this is one point that should be noted!

Similar to 30-April-2003, it appears there will be a secondary target of interest much further from the surface low along the warm front where the LLJ noses in at about 0Z. Waterloo is "squeezed" between the right entrance region of the mid-level jet and the left exit of a screaming LLJ. The flow is similar to 30-April-2003 where there were a couple fairly significant tornadoes in IL well away from the surface low NW MO/SW IA where 99% of chasers were. I had to blow off this day for the most part as I was due in OKC the following day to start work for Tempest Tours (still got on early evening convection E of ITC). Like the southerly surface flow with NNE flow immediately north of the warm front giving ample push from the surface.

Yet another significant factor to be noted is that if Td's which are progged verify along the warm front, a rough calculation would give ~2500-3000 j/kg of MUCAPE.

Wait... hold the beans here... I'm talking UP IOWA!?!?! That is whacked out and trippin'!!!

..Blake..

Austin Ivey

04-13-2004, 11:28 PM

I guess I will throw in my two cents on the prospects for this coming wknd. There's no use repeating what others have said, especially with several days until the possible event. However, one interesting thing of note are the extremely saturated grounds along almost all coastal areas of Texas extending several hundred miles inland in some cases. Some areas have received 5-7 inches of rain in the past week+. I've never read any research about this but it seems to me the abnormally "wet" soils and terrain would undoubtedly help the moisture recovery and possibly drive dewpoints to higher levels more quickly than if the soils were drier.

One possible example of this can be seen by examining the NWS observation from the Brazoria County Airport on the immediate Texas coast (south of Houston) from tonight. The dewpoint at 5pm local was 44 but after the winds calmed down the dewpoint rose to 52 by 9pm. I think this dramatic increase speaks to the extremely waterlogged soils mentioned earlier. 8 degrees is a large difference! Certainly the models don't account for soil moisture/evpotransporation because it's hard to quantify. Then again I'm not an expert on the schematics of the models. Any comments?

Brazoria NWS station:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KLBX.html

Kevin Scharfenberg

04-14-2004, 12:10 AM

Good observation Austin. The southern plains should see a lot of sunshine the next couple of days to aide in evapo-transpiring the water on the ground. I believe there is some element in the eta model that tries to take this into account based on what soil moisture observations are available, but I think its success is mixed (no pun intended!).

That said, the Gulf is being hosed of the deep, tropical moisture, and despite the sun, will probably not reach full equilibrium in time for the weekend (still, 60ish dewpoints will not be too shabby). That said, the forecast pattern suggests that even if the first wave were to go by with limited moisture, the gulf will not get scoured this time, and there is still plenty of energy crashing into the southwest U.S. during the next week. So, stay tuned...

Jim Bishop

04-14-2004, 02:56 AM

Kevin raises a good point. Even if the abundant moisture isn't available this weekend, there will not be a cold front to affect it due to the southwesterly flow aloft. And, the GFS is showing shortwave further upstream being very intense. So, cross your fingers for a possbile west Texas chase early next week.

Jim Bishop
http://stormgasm.com

Amos Magliocco

04-14-2004, 01:10 PM

I agree next week looks enticing too, and probably wetter. But ETA and GFS both insist on lower 60 dewpoints east of the dryline over the weekend, despite all the objections we've raised about the condition of the Gulf, unfavorable trajectories, lack of corn, etc etc. LOL. So if you can't beat em, join em, right?

With a jet streak progged to reach the Texas panhandle around peak heating on Saturday, combined with the strong height falls, vorticity advection, and favorable deep layer shear, I have to like that area again for severe on Saturday. We even have something of a strong cap forecast that could help keep storms isolated. Or, with the depth of moisture problems, keep them from appearing at all--heh.

Perhaps I'm reading too much into RH values at 850? I surfed around for forecast soundings that far out and found no sites that offer them past 60 hours. I had to surf because I don't trust forecast soundings and so I never use them and don't know where they are. Living 1000 miles away from Vega, though, forces you to use all tools at your disposal, no matter how blunt. So I know I sound like a broken record with my depth of moisture worries, but otherwise the setup looks solid.

There is a second area of interest up north along the warm front. At this point, I think a single topic can handle both discussions. But if it the volume gets heavy and people want to split the topic for the two target regions (north plains and south plains), we can do that too.

Amos Magliocco

04-14-2004, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by Jonathan Merage
I'm based out of Lafayette, IN, (Purdue U.) and based on current model ouput, especially the most recent ETA, my prime target location is definitely southern IA. According to the 12Z ETA, all areas around DSM will have the highest CAPEs (~3000 J/kg), with the best mix of deep-level moisture and frontal lift right around there on Sat, not to mention LIs down to -8!!. ETA also projects that area to be in the right-exit quadrant of a decent jet streak, which will provide the upper-level support the supercells need once they get started. As far as the central & Southern Plains are concerned, good LUCK to all chasers headed out there! Even with a fairly potent dryline, assuming CI starts up on Sat., the CAP's gonna make targeting the right cells a chore!
I'm going to base myself somewhere in western IA and wait for the warm-front to come through,Jon

I'm including a lengthy quote from Jon because I believe he intended to post about Saturday in this thread, so any replies should be in here of course.

My take is that the cap is strong in Oklahoma, definitely, and that's not a bad thing--LOL--as long as it breaks. What will also be in Oklahoma is a strong belt of midlevel winds, rapid height falls, vorticity advection, and a tight dryline. I also prefer the southern target because the moisture should be at least as rich in western Oklahoma as in Iowa. I know what the model shows, but the southern plains have the distinct advantage of being closer to the Gulf. Here's a snippet from today's SWODY3, which I think could easily apply to what we're seeing on Day 4:

"AS WAS THE CASE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN FORECAST BY THE 00Z/14 ETA AND GFS MODEL RUNS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE ON DAY 3 OVER THE CNTRL PLNS."

Iowa is enticing because its so much closer for me (I'm in Bloomington, Indiana) but as of the 12Z run, I really think the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma have more going for them.

Jeff Snyder

04-14-2004, 06:47 PM

I agree... I think Saturday could be significant for the OK/KS area. On top of >2500 CAPE and nice shear, the 12z ETA does break out convective precip across western OK by 0z. Check out http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_SVR_C...HSWEAT_84HR.gif (http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_SVR_CAPESRHSWEAT_84HR.gif) if you read this before the 0z runs come out... There seems to be a CIN minima immediately ahead of the dryline by Saturday afternoon. The capping will likely ensure that convection stays isolated, as does the fact that 0-6k shear vector is perpendicular to the dryline.

I'm not really concerned about moisture return, as the models have been persistant in giving us decent dewpoints. I'm slightly concerned about high LCLs, but we're still too far away to give that much thought.

Beyond Saturday, I think Sunday could be decent too, though I'm not as thrilled about it as Saturday.

Getting slightly beyond the scope of this thread, the longer-term model seem to keep the western US in a mean trough through at least the next 2 weeks. Also, the CPC seems quite favorable towards numerous severe weather outbreaks for the next two weeks... check it out at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ts/threats.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.html) ..

Bob Schafer

04-14-2004, 11:12 PM

Having looked at the 18Z ETA, I am beginning to become concerned with timing. The upper level dynamics may arrive just about 6 hours too late to get the cap broken and get convection in PH's/KS before dusk Saturday.

Bob

Shane Adams

04-14-2004, 11:21 PM

I'll be in Elk City by noon Saturday......stop and say hi if you're in the area.

Amos Magliocco

04-15-2004, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by Shane Adams
I'll be in Elk City by noon Saturday......stop and say hi if you're in the area.

Shane, was about to PM you and say my target was Clinton and we should meet up out there, but after looking at these model initializations, I have to put the entire weekend back into the "iffy" category. Only because I live 800 miles from Clinton. If I lived in Norman, it would be a no-brainer.

As badly as the model initialized this morning (and apparently has for the last several runs) concering the pool of moisture in the Gulf (which exists only on graphics and nowhere in reality), I have to throw out the rest of the run in terms of moisture and instability progs. It seems to me that this has profound impact on the character of the dryline as well, not to mention the theta-e value of our warm sector boundary layer. While I have much more confidence in the southern plains recovering faster, everything I thought I knew about the weekend was apparently based on some very wacked out moisture progs.

I guess we'll see what really transpires over the next 24 hours. I'll be sticking closely to obs, vapor loops, and soundings.

Austin Ivey

04-15-2004, 11:13 AM

Here is an interesting article publicly available at the SPC website. Authored by Rich Thompson, this paper documents the process of bringing the GOM back to equilibrium after frontal passages in the cool season (roughly nov.-apr.). It also gives a useful chart for finding what the equilibrium DP might become based on SST observations at a certain buoy.

I thought this would be an interesting read especially given the debate on mositure return for chasing prospects this coming wknd.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/thomp...n/buoy/buoy.htm (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/thompson/buoy/buoy.htm)

Amos Magliocco

04-15-2004, 11:58 AM

Excellent link, Austin. I knew Rich Thompson had done a lot of work in this area, but hadn't taken time to find his articles. He's using Buoy 42002 for this analysis, obs for which are here:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtm...l?station=42002 (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=42002)

Here's three very important points from this paper, with direct implications for our weekend:

"Surface buoy observations from the NOAA buoy 42002 were the primary data source for this study...This location was considered ideal for investigating the open water characteristics of surface return flow affecting the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This buoy is located south of the shallow continental shelf waters. The shelf waters experience relatively large seasonal variations in temperature and are not considered relevant when evaluating air-sea equilibrium during cool season return flow episodes (Thompson et al. 1994)."

"Equilibrium thermodynamic principles can be applied successfully to forecasts of deep convection. From operational experience, the majority of southern/central United States outbreaks of strong/severe thunderstorms during the cool season are associated with return flows having greater than equilibrium dewpoint temperatures for much of the Gulf (dewpoints >21 C). Examination of several years of cool season SST data reveals that the area of the Gulf near buoy 42002 typically supports equilibrium dewpoint temperatures ranging from 17-19 C during the late winter and early spring months (late January through mid/late March). Thus, dew point observations at or greater than 21 C (~69 F) suggest region(s) of warmer SSTs (Bay of Campeche, Loop Current, Caribbean Sea) are the likely source for those return flows associated with the strongest severe thunderstorm episodes."

"Super-equilibrium" conditions were almost always associated with cases where return flow duration exceeded offshore flow duration (ratio Rfd/OFd >2), implying ample time for airmass modification and surface trajectories originating over warmer waters of the southern Gulf or Caribbean. "

I am now wondering if perhaps the higher dewpoint readings along those shelf buoys Thompson discounts in his methodology section (along with the saturated Texas coast surface stations?) could be to blame for the ETA's delusion about a pool of 65F dewpoints off the coast?

Robert Dewey

04-15-2004, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by Amos Magliocco
I am now wondering if perhaps the higher dewpoint readings along those shelf buoys Thompson discounts in his methodology section (along with the saturated Texas coast surface stations?) could be to blame for the ETA's delusion about a pool of 65F dewpoints off the coast?

This is quite possible...And once the ETA initializes the higher dewpoints/instability, which are in error...It basically creates a "chain reaction"... The excessive instability produces storms, which produces quite a bit of precip, which in turn adds more low level moisture, and which in turn cycles back into excessively high Td's...At least thats my theory.

Robert

Bob Schafer

04-15-2004, 02:45 PM

I thought about starting a new thread for this question, but since it so directly applies to Saturday, I proceed:

Go to CoD's 6Z ETA run from today (4-15), and look at vert velocities at 700mb for 0Z Sunday.

What is that happening in W TX?

I don't know that I've seen (certainly didn't notice) such downward vert vel directly upstream of upward vert vel before.

My first thought was "derecho???", but Mike Geukes provided some info about very strong 500mb winds being a primary key parameter for derechoes, which isn't present in that area 0Z Sunday.

So what is up with that down vert vel?

Computer glitch?

scratching bald head........

Bob

Robert Dewey

04-15-2004, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by Bob Schafer
My first thought was \"derecho???\", but Mike Geukes provided some info about very strong 500mb winds being a primary key parameter for derechoes, which isn't present in that area 0Z Sunday.
Bob

That is correct, derechoes tend to have 500mb winds in excess of 50knts from >260 degree angle (WNW). While a strong 500mb jet is nosing into the western TX region, it is from the SW...That and many other ingredients are missing, so no derecho.

Originally posted by Bob Schafer
So what is up with that down vert vel?

Computer glitch?

scratching bald head........

It appears that the strong positive VV's are in response to the cold front/dryline initiating convection (creating upward motion/positive VVs), while behind the deep convection, very strong subsidence is occuring (negative VVs/downward motion of air). This ETA has the right physics here, but whether or not this is what will really happen remains to be seen. This is just my theory, correct me if I'm wrong.

Robert

Jeff Snyder

04-15-2004, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div><!--QuoteBegin-Bob Schafer
My first thought was \"derecho???\", but Mike Geukes provided some info about very strong 500mb winds being a primary key parameter for derechoes, which isn't present in that area 0Z Sunday.
Bob

That is correct, derechoes tend to have 500mb winds in excess of 50knts from >260 degree angle (WNW). While a strong 500mb jet is nosing into the western TX region, it is from the SW...That and many other ingredients are missing, so no derecho.

Robert[/b]

I think it's important to be cautious how you characterize derechoes as occuring in environments with WNW 500mb flow... I seriously doubt the absolute direction has much to do with anything here. I think derechos tend to occur in WNW flow events not because there is something special about WNW winds, but because of boundary orientation. Consider how most derecho's occur in the warm season, and many during the summer months, when instability can be quite extreme. More often than not in derecho cases, a stationary boundary is oriented pretty close to E-W, making is nearly parallel to the 500mb flow. Depending upon the location of the instability axis and many other elements, this orientation allows the complex to ride right along the boundary, similar to good tornadic supercell situations... However, I think the key here is both the strong 500mb flow and the fact that it is parallel to the boundary. With that said, I think there is a very similar chance at having a derecho in SW flow IF the other parameters are in place (strong instability upstream, flow parallel to a stationary front, etc)... Granted, I don't think that's the situation for this weekend, but I just wanted to make that comment....

This is kind of similar to saying "supercells like southwest flow aloft". To this, I'd say "no". In the central US, southwest flow aloft can lead to a supportive synoptic environment (lee troughing, good directional shear, etc), but the fact that the 500mb is SW is not what makes a storm become supercellular. You can shift everything clockwise 90 degrees and have the same favorable environment for supercells (NW 500mb flow, SSW sfc winds, etc etc etc)... So again, it's not the direction of the flow itself that it important, but the fact that the direction of the mid-level flow TENDS (climatologically) to create a at least a semi-favorable synoptic environment...

Scott A. Kampas

04-15-2004, 06:56 PM

Chris noted most of the things I was going to mention about moisture in another thread. The western GoM has recovered quite well, though most of the Gulf is still horrible (40s T/ds not uncommon). However, there is a nice Cu field going up I35 right now too. 50s T/ds have reached well into E KS. Sfc T/d and theta-e progs continue to look decent, and even depth of moisture looks good for this weekend as far north as the Upper Midwest.

A few more days of a strengthening fetch from an improving source region should bode quite well to raise T/ds and the depth of the moisture. You can see moist Pacific air streaming in aloft, as well, on vis and wv (though the GoM still looks sick). The big event may be the middle of next week, but I'm torn between chasing the S Plains Saturday and/or the Midwest on Sunday. Hopefully Saturday's stuff stays discrete whether or not I chase that day, so it doesn't interfere with the moisture streaming north. I'm relegated to weekends for long chases until school ends, and expect all hell to break loose during finals week as happened last year... so, I'm am ready to go.

I like those H850 winds: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...r48hr60hr72hr84 (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_850_wnd&hours=hr48hr60hr72hr84)

Scott

Tony Laubach

04-15-2004, 07:22 PM

Car passed the inspection.. now just to figure out where to go...

Been eying the models, but haven't seen them since this morning to comment on.. I briefly went over the forum and caught myself up on the discussion.. finally see the forum split the South and North Plains possibilities.. I'm still thinking south.

I will take stock in mid to upper 50s dewpoints east of the dryline (23Z SFC OBS). Looks like the moisture may try and sneak its way in there by Saturday.. still a bit iffy on the timing of the system.. I can only squeeze one chase day over the weekend.. so gotta pick the best one! I like the chance of discrete storms, though.. would definitely make for easier chasing! :D Will stay tuned...

Bob Schafer

04-15-2004, 07:49 PM

Guys, guys, guys....

Anyone have an answer to my question?

What's the deal with the pronounced downward vertical velocity in W Texas? :roll:

Bob

Robert Dewey

04-15-2004, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by Bob Schafer
Guys, guys, guys....

Anyone have an answer to my question?

What's the deal with the pronounced downward vertical velocity in W Texas? :roll:

Bob

That is just strong subsidence...That usually occurs behind strong cold fronts or drylines...especially when there is convection ahead of them (all that upward motion for convection has to come down somewhere). It could also be enhanced by topography. This is just my theory however...

Hope that helps some, I did reply to this earlier...

Robert

Jeff Snyder

04-15-2004, 08:35 PM

Oh for those who are interested, I pulled off some ETA Point Forecast Soundings for Saturday late afternoon while at work today... The thermodynamic environment, for the most part, is very nice...

http://www.tornadocentral.com/end21z.gif
END 21Z

http://www.tornadocentral.com/wcok22z.gif
West-central OK 22Z (Notice the lack of much CIN/cap)

http://www.tornadocentral.com/ict23z.gif
ICT 23Z

For the most part, ~3000 CAPE, along with other parameters all appear to be quite nice!

{My apologies for the large size and thus any right-left 'scrolling'}

mrobinson

04-15-2004, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Since I can't post images in the Target Area section (... why?...), I believe pictures are allowed in Target Area and the inconsistancy in the way the rules read has already been pointed out. Its being looked at but in the meantime until Tim gets a chance to review it go ahead and post your images.

Robert Dewey

04-15-2004, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>Originally posted by rdewey@
<!--QuoteBegin-Bob Schafer
My first thought was \"derecho???\", but Mike Geukes provided some info about very strong 500mb winds being a primary key parameter for derechoes, which isn't present in that area 0Z Sunday.
Bob

That is correct, derechoes tend to have 500mb winds in excess of 50knts from >260 degree angle (WNW). While a strong 500mb jet is nosing into the western TX region, it is from the SW...That and many other ingredients are missing, so no derecho.

Robert

I think it's important to be cautious how you characterize derechoes as occuring in environments with WNW 500mb flow... I seriously doubt the absolute direction has much to do with anything here. I think derechos tend to occur in WNW flow events not because there is something special about WNW winds, but because of boundary orientation. Consider how most derecho's occur in the warm season, and many during the summer months, when instability can be quite extreme. More often than not in derecho cases, a stationary boundary is oriented pretty close to E-W, making is nearly parallel to the 500mb flow. Depending upon the location of the instability axis and many other elements, this orientation allows the complex to ride right along the boundary, similar to good tornadic supercell situations... However, I think the key here is both the strong 500mb flow and the fact that it is parallel to the boundary. With that said, I think there is a very similar chance at having a derecho in SW flow IF the other parameters are in place (strong instability upstream, flow parallel to a stationary front, etc)... Granted, I don't think that's the situation for this weekend, but I just wanted to make that comment....

This is kind of similar to saying "supercells like southwest flow aloft". To this, I'd say "no". In the central US, southwest flow aloft can lead to a supportive synoptic environment (lee troughing, good directional shear, etc), but the fact that the 500mb is SW is not what makes a storm become supercellular. You can shift everything clockwise 90 degrees and have the same favorable environment for supercells (NW 500mb flow, SSW sfc winds, etc etc etc)... So again, it's not the direction of the flow itself that it important, but the fact that the direction of the mid-level flow TENDS (climatologically) to create a at least a semi-favorable synoptic environment...[/b]

I was going by the standard derecho "checklist" - located at the NWS - http://www.crh.noaa.gov/techpapers/service...rc-dmgwnds.html (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/techpapers/service/tsp-10/6forc-dmgwnds.html). It has been noted, that this checklist is usually wrong. Just like the 50knt 500mb wind threshold that Mike noted...I believe that some conditions may compensate for others...Like extreme shear in the 0-3KM layer may override the fact that 500mb winds are only 35-45KNTS.

As far as the northwest flow aloft...I am not sure why that is in the criteria, but I believe it to be that most derechoes occur in the midwest during the mid summer "northwest flow" pattern...So as you said, typical climatology would suggest northwest winds aloft.

As for any derecho (or any MCS for that matter) chances this weekend...They look very slim, but I wouldn't rule it out just totally. ETA is showing the warm front (which could be considered a quasi-stationary boundary) across areas from southern MN eastward into MI with a parallel mid level flow, relatively unstable air along and south of it, as well as decent lifting. Only problem I see is that these conditions don't persist upstream for 250nm, because the jet structure changes. My bet is that storms would be organized into a "cluster" if anything, but with mesoscale evolution, who knows.

Robert

Robert Dewey

04-15-2004, 08:58 PM

Jeff...Those are some very impressive soundings, sure spell out supercell pretty nicely! Too bad you didn't save a hodograph.

Robert

Jeff Snyder

04-15-2004, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by rdewey
Jeff...Those are some very impressive soundings, sure spell out supercell pretty nicely! Too bad you didn't save a hodograph.

Robert

Yeah, I was going to save the hodos, but forgot. If I recall correctly, the western-OK sounding had only decent low-level shear as represented in the hodograph. The hodographs from ICT and END, however, looked pretty good, though.

Jeff

Robert Dewey

04-15-2004, 09:09 PM

Looks like its time for me to fire up my GEMPAK machine (your nsharp images persuaded me!), and possibly a run or two of the WSETA...Some pretty interesting stuff looks like its coming up...

Robert

Tim Vasquez

04-15-2004, 09:29 PM

The rule on images is under review -- you may ignore it at present, and we may formally back down on this since there has been excellent use of graphics so far.

Our main concern for this has been that nowcasts don't take 5 minutes to load for people on mobile Internet out in the field and to discourage posting of SPC images that are readily available on SPC's site. If anyone has suggestions on how we can amend this your input would be valuable.

Tim

Jeff Snyder

04-16-2004, 12:07 AM

Well... the latest ETA run is considerably different from previous runs... Mainly in regards to CAPE forecasts... now +3500 j/kg in northern KS, down to +2500-3000 CAPE down through nw OK. The 500mb jet streak is yet again farther west than previous forecasts, but shear profiles still appear adequate for decent supercells and a tornado risk... IF the cap can be broken. Because the main trough is so far west of the area, there will be very little upper support for any convection. Therefore, the only real trigger we may have is the dryline... And we all know how 'finicky' the dryline can be! I'm getting more and more optimistic by the model-run. It'll rpobably be a "boom-or-bust" type of day. Granted, deep-layer shear is particularly good, but adequate enough. C'mon baby!

Scott Roberts

04-16-2004, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Oh for those who are interested, I pulled off some ETA Point Forecast Soundings for Saturday late afternoon while at work today... The thermodynamic environment, for the most part, is very nice...

Where do you get those soundings from?

Jeff Snyder

04-16-2004, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by Scott Roberts+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Scott Roberts)</div><!--QuoteBegin-Jeff Snyder
Oh for those who are interested, I pulled off some ETA Point Forecast Soundings for Saturday late afternoon while at work today... The thermodynamic environment, for the most part, is very nice...

Where do you get those soundings from?[/b]

Scott,
Those particular soundings were done on NSharp, part of NTL, on an NAwips machine. It's an awesome program.

Moving on... The latest 12Z ETA is, well, blah. While it's encouraging to see =>60 tds across most of OK at this hour (10am), the ETA seems to have cooled the low-levels and warmed the mid-levels on Saturday (on Sunday, for that matter). As the trough continues to slow down (run-to-run), associated mid-level cooling is being pushed farther and father west, away from central/western OK and central KS. Right now, it's looking more like a very strong cap that is looking less and less like it's going to break...

Jeff
Jeff

Amos Magliocco

04-16-2004, 11:45 AM

After an agonizing 48 hours, I've decided to stay home for Saturday.

This morning's soundings indiciate only a shallow moist layer working into the southern and central plains. With a strong cap getting stronger under a southwestly 850 and the addtional diffusion of the moisture from mixing, I don't have enough confidence to make the drive out for Saturday. I was targetting south central Kansas and still think that area has some potential, but not enough for the time and money such a trip involves from Indiana. As for Iowa, I never bought into the idea of sufficient moisture depth there by Saturday and I still don't.

If tomorrow's soundings aren't substantially better, I'll write off Sunday too. I'd feel differently if I lived closer. Man, I can't WAIT to live only 5 hours from ICT again! Once I get back, I'll never complain about driving to Kansas targets from Texas ---LOL!

Good luck to everybody chasing this weekend.

Mike Hollingshead

04-16-2004, 11:45 AM

http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...STATIONID=72548 (http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?model=ETA&fcsthr=033&STATIONID=72548)

Then click on eta in upper left corner.....that is for Waterloo IA at 21z Sat.

Tony Laubach

04-16-2004, 12:25 PM

I'm still bouncing back and forth between whether or not to make the trip. If I decide to go, I'm likely to target Central/North Central Kansas because it is a few short hours away. As it stands now, I'd probably hang around the Salina area early in the day and see what fires where. That allows me options west (Hays), east (Topeka), north (Lincoln), and south (Wichita). May jet out late this evening and stay overnight someplace close by and pull up some morning data to give me a better idea what to shoot for. Things are still way unsure at this point, but I think Iowa is going to stretch the limits of my time and money, so I'd feel much better sticking close. Kansas works well. With SPC's morning 2 Day Outlook, they run a narrow slot of 15% Probs through Central Kansas.. although the odds are better in Iowa, I think I am going to gamble in Kansas.. that's my synopsis as of now.. will wait for another couple runs before making a final decision.

Mike Peregrine

04-16-2004, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...STATIONID=72548 (http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?model=ETA&fcsthr=033&STATIONID=72548)

Then click on eta in upper left corner.....that is for Waterloo IA at 21z Sat.

Good grief - nice wind environment ... look at those parameters. Please let there be deep moisture ...

Supercell pct: 100.0
SWEAT: 565.8
CAPE: 3579.3
LCL hgt: 1144.3
LFC hgt: 1593.5
Storm Dir/Speed: 258@20kts (oh please be true)

I almost wish I wouldn't have looked at that - - I'm sure I'll have a nervous breakdown by 1630z tomorrow as I realize that everything has begun looking like poop. Still wondering about the cap and CINH as well.

Mike Hollingshead

04-16-2004, 12:48 PM

As for the real world and the moisture. Umm.... http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oax.gif That should show you exactly how much those sfc TDs mean right now. That is for Omaha.

I'm hoping the Waterloo forecast sounding becomes reality. I'd say I believe in that deep moisture happening...ooh......5%...lol....but i'm 100% full of hope somehow it will. Looking around the plains right now says no way. But, that is not to say less then that can't be fun too!

I put this in both 4-17 threads, but for whatever reason it didn't copy over to this one when I did that forecast sounding.

MIke

An even cooler looking hodo.... http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...STATIONID=72650 (http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?model=ETA&fcsthr=036&STATIONID=72650) Spencer IA 0z Sun

Mike Peregrine

04-16-2004, 01:00 PM

Thank you both for keeping my head on the ground. That sounding from OAX is just rough. If moisture-temperature were any further apart at 800mb they'd have to make a separate diagram. This could easily go either way - may need to stay up late tonight and watch.

And Chris, if we end up with emotional scars, at least we can all share. I hear that therapy helps. We can always add this to the list along with the '01 KS high risk bust to console ourselves with.

The hodo on Sunday still looks interesting, but not sure about better - apart from moisture, which significantly improves. Looks like more cap and inhibition, and slightly faster storms ... still perfectly do-able.

Mike Peregrine

04-16-2004, 01:19 PM

This is cool - you can use this to compare ETA, MM5 and GFS skew-t's over Waterloo (33hr - valid 21z Saturday).

http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewts.php3?f...STATIONID=72548 (http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewts.php3?fcsthr=033&STATIONID=72548)

Tim Vasquez

04-16-2004, 02:50 PM

You can all post graphics if you need to... just try to minimize it, especially toward the nowcasting timeframe tomorrow when people are on mobile connections. We decided to prohibit only these graphics: Images consisting of SPC outlook and watch box products in FCST or NOW threads. Chasers are already looking at these and know how to get them.

Tim

Shane Adams

04-16-2004, 06:20 PM

Just took my first serious look at the day (Saturday) that everyone else has been freaking out over since last weekend. Let me first say thanks to all of you guys for sitting and obsessing over these models days upon days; I don't have to because all of you do it for me :wink:

As usual, I'm surprised very litte yet optimistic about tomorrow's chances. Everything I've looked at (via ETA/GFS) says that there's a decent chance of storms tomorrow from SW Oklahoma through SW Kansas. I just don't see the capping inversion that everyone is talking about; last time I checked, 8c at h7 was pretty much perfect. And high teens/low 20s at h85 is pretty doable as well. Maybe with the lack of the main 500 jet max (until Sunday) everyone is thinking the little impulses moving around the trough won't be enough? Possible, but certainly not probable (or inprobable) at this point. So I fail to see the cap issue.

Next on my list is the moisture issue. I saw very adequate theta-e profiles at both h85 and h7, didn't see anything near the mess we had on April 9th (and we had storms that day). Perhaps I'm over-simplifying my analysis, but I don't see a big moisture issue either.

UVV profiles show initiation along the OK/TX pan border by 0Z. Decent shear, temps, and moisture are shown to exist in this corridor around this time. I live and die by UVVs. I only wish I'd paid attention to them prior to 2002.

Of course, this is the ETA/GFS we're talking about, both of which completely blew April 9th's initiation while the RUC was all over it. Again, I'm quite content to sit and wait for tomorrow's early RUC runs, and I'll go exactly where its UVV spikes are.

Another day that looks to hold wonderful potential and prizes should one trust oneself enough and the models less. I'm enjoying these types of set-ups leading up to events; lots of pessimists out there and the fewer people I have to deal with in this horribly-overrated state, the more I love it 8)

Mike Peregrine

04-16-2004, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Shane Adams
I have to deal with in this horribly-overrated state, the more I love it 8)

Never thought I'd see the day - - - :)

Actually I'm still optimistic about tomorrow as well and will also be paying attention to the RUC (for what it's worth - about as 'trustworthy' as any these days). The possibilities remain interesting. The question for me revolves more around playing with the DL or putting stock in the WF ... which will produce ... will either ... the wind environment is certainly favorable, and I hope for moisture depth to improve during the overnight. Would be so nice if we could blow some of it up off the surface a ways.

Anyway - all the best to everyone heading out tomorrow. I'm thinking more along the line of the DL, only because it's KANSAS and not IOWA and I am just anxious to drive around in the open country, blue sky or not.

Austin Ivey

04-16-2004, 07:48 PM

Great comment Shane. Like you said, one of the reasons I will head to Liberal tomorrow is that their probably won't be many people out. At least not compared to the mid-March event in OK.

Where do you get your graphics for RUC UVV's??

Thanks
Austin

Tony Laubach

04-16-2004, 07:51 PM

Off to Kansas I go! In less than an hour, I'll be leaving Denver for Hays where I will crash overnight and await the morning's data (I'll be at the Hays Public Library at open).

I'm siding with Shane on his positive attitude, but I won't lie and say moisture depth isn't bothering me a bit. Still, I imagine something's gonna go.. just a matter of where and when. In any case, I'll be looking for tomorrow's runs and analyze the situation further.

Good luck to everyone heading out, and for those heading to Kansas, maybe I'll see ya! Be watchin' for the 'WX NERD' from Colorado!

Happy Hunting!

Shane Adams

04-16-2004, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Austin Ivey
Where do you get your graphics for RUC UVV's??

http://weather.cod.edu

Just follow the easy menu and choose the model run of your choice :arrow:

Amos Magliocco

04-17-2004, 12:50 AM

Originally posted by Shane Adams
. I'm enjoying these types of set-ups leading up to events; lots of pessimists out there and the fewer people I have to deal with in this horribly-overrated state, the more I love it 8)

Ouch. I guess I would be counted among the pessimists for this event anyway. But the soundings are what they are, and the ETA is wrong about moisture--that much we know. We can compare what it shows and what there really is. I don't necessarily think that means there won't be supercells or even torndoes; all it means is that the guidance is faulty.

Shane Adams

04-17-2004, 09:07 AM

As promised, I stopped looking at models late last night and decided to let the RUC spell it our for me this morning. While I've yet to see any 0Z runs, the 21Z model I looked at spelled it "C R A P."

SPC's latest outlook (much like the previous one) speaks pretty much the same tone. I'm willing to sit here monitoring conditions all day from the comfort of the puter desk, but I'm beginning to concede defeat, after having just returned from a stroll to the neighborhood store and having witnessed a ton of mid-level cloudage racing north on the 850 jet. So as if things weren't complicated enough as is, this final "kick while we're down" element probably just ended my hopes of a chase today.

But anything can happen, and I'm not turning my back on this quite yet....

Mike Peregrine

04-17-2004, 09:21 AM

Yes, the mighty cap is already rearing it's ugly head. I'm still wondering if there will be enough of a push along the dryline anywhere to overcome it, and will probably take a look at the areas around NC KS and SC NE before the morning is out ... but otherwise I'll use the day to continue shaping the car up for tomorrow.

Kevin Scharfenberg

04-17-2004, 10:20 AM

The 12Z soundings are pretty bleak...the available moisture has little depth and there is a substantial cap (note: the moisture sensor on the 12Z OUN sounding was defective).

It looks like mid-upper 80s on the dryline will be sufficient to pop a few high-based storms. Given the dewpoint depressions will be on the order of 30F, it's doesn't look like it's worth it to me to take the drive from Norman into the panhandle. I'll save my pennies for later in the season.

Michael Shively

04-17-2004, 10:56 AM

well....anybody look at the day 1 outlook? they are predicting a fairlly good day...even with the cap so strong and all...i think i will make the treck to DSM and then further north probably.....hope to see some of you up there

Good Luck everyone

Mike

Gabe Garfield

04-17-2004, 10:57 AM

Maybe it's just my eyes deceiving me (I just woke up), but the sfc analysis now shows dewpoints in the 70s along the Gulf coast. Only a narrow plume of moisture may be available(since these higher Tds are only located in the W. Gulf), but it might be significant enough to warrant a greater risk for tomorrow. Also, the moisture doesn't appear too deep, but it is much better than anything I've seen in soundings for the past 2 days. I'm not giving up on this one quite yet.

Gabe

Larry J. Kosch

04-17-2004, 12:27 PM

Good Morning,

Thought I would put in my two cents worth for my Target Area that I picked this morning. In spite of wishful discussion about some of you that wanted to chase in Kansas today, I think the action is going to be smack in the heart of Iowa today.

I did most of my analysis on the NWS website, using the experimental graphic maps they have set up. Look at the morning's dewpoints for Iowa in this link:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphica...ppermissvly.php (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/uppermissvly.php)

You will see a dewpoint difference zone running from the SW corner of the state to the middle of the northern tier. As you run your mouse over the morning and afternoon hour boxes, you will see the dewpoints for the S-SE part of Iowa jump into the 60s and peak nearly close to 65 in the middle of the state.

Then run your mouse over the MIN/MAX TEMP box, you will see the SW corner of IA will be cooking in the mid-upper 80s by 5 p.m..

Taking into consideration the forecasted movement of the frontal boundary northward thru Iowa today, I have selected...drum roll...an area N-NW of Des Moines IA to be the Target Area. The convective heating and the bumped-up dew points in SW Iowa will combine to initial CBs. They will develop as they move northward. The storms will max up once they pass the I-80 corridor. Either a supercell or a squall line will develop and you have your storm chase, folks.

Have fun chasing. I pulled an all-nighter at work and I need to rest up. Besides I may get a ringside seat tomorrow when a low pressure center and a cold front will combine to produce severe storms in KS and NE. No chasing here. Just step outside and enjoy the view!! 8) LJK.

Tony Laubach

04-17-2004, 12:40 PM

Kansas looking like a big ol' bust.. defininetly looks as if Iowa is going to take the brunt of today's action. Although the threat for severe weather hasn't totally been called off, I would imagine a long day for those who ventured out this way *raises hand skeptically* I've flirted with the idea of blasting north into Iowa, but my limited finances are playing a roll and I may elect to swallow my pride for today and kick back for tomorrow's potential as the cold front digs in.

As for today, SPC did take away the SLIGHT risk in the Kansas area due to a large cap in place. However, any storms that can break the cap will likely go severe, even as hail and wind may be about the only threat. No one down here will be heard uttering tornado, I would imagine. CAPE values along the dryline are forecasted to be about 2000J/kg with shear values at 35knts. Not the greatest of chances, but something there for a storm that may bust the cap.

Guess we'll see.. will play around here and see what (if anything) pops, and if not, hibernate away tonight in hopes of better luck tomorrow.

Jay McCoy

04-17-2004, 01:01 PM

Looks like I get to play the home area chase today. The cloud shield that was expected is still to the west/southwest allowing max heating in the panhandle. The dryline is not pushing as far east as forecast so the central panhandle is now in it. The SPC finally caught on and threw in a slight for this area. Will sit around waiting for something to happen if it does.

Shane Adams

04-17-2004, 01:13 PM

Jay pretty much beat me to the punch. I too was going to comment on SPC's sudden optimism (relatively speaking) regarding the lack of expected cloud coverage over the TX pan region. However, the drive is now an hour further away, the risk is still slight, but more-to-the-point, the chance for tornadic love is anorexic-slim. Dewpoint depressions of 25-30 with the shallow moisture isn't a great recipe for spinning convective tubes of joy.

There will of course be that lone, discrete cell that pops up that will have everyone going "damn" but I'm not betting it'll be tornadic. Been a strange year to this point; not so much because of a lack of tornadoes but a lack of chaseable days period. We're smack dab in the middle of April and we've hardly had anything to even go after. Two of my three chases this year were jokes. Looks like this could be an all-time low April for me, as far as chases in general

Kevin's comments don't sit well with me either; he mentiond maybe Thursday is salvagable....I was kinda hoping for Tuesday. But we'll see. Just a blah pattern that can't seem to get the moisture thing right....very frustrating. Hate to be the harbringer of doom here, but for all practical purposes, minus March 27 this is looking like a 1988 to this point.

Where are the chaseable systems????