Late May

[Robert Balogh]

Anyone have any ideas about how the latter part of May might shape up?

[Mike Hollingshead]

Warmer than it currently is.

Seriously, I bet you'll get some funny answers on this one. It is asked often and no one really knows. One thing that looks to happen is a nice trough in the west starting late this week and kicking out disturbances by late weekend into early next week(if you believe the gfs). I don't see any reason not to believe it. I've yet to see a trough really stay put for any real length of time, say greater than 2 weeks. I myself would be more worried about late May than the period starting early next week(following Sunday or Monday I guess). The big troughs eventually come out and you don't want to be on vacation just after that. Look at after May 15 2003. The last 2 weeks of May sucked...bad. The 2 weeks before that were fantastic(though a bit fast). Look at after May 29 2004. A good period of down time. So if the big trough starts setting into the west starting late next week I would be concerned about last week of May....if you are really wanting to worry about it at all that is.

[Cstok]

Now I'm worried... that's when I'll be out there... 21st - 31st.

[Matthew Hatton]

well I am out there this Saturday until the 28th - will just have to wait and see what happens this year.

[mrobinett]

well I am out there this Saturday until the 28th - will just have to wait and see what happens this year.

Count me in. Ill be there all of next week, I wish I had the rest of May!!

Look for the white 2003 Astro with my company name on the side and lots of antennas!!

[Mike Johnson]

This is still looking like a southern jet year. (AMA, LBB, MAF, etc.)
It has been way too quiet down there for too long. Once upon
a time - Hale County, TX was rated as the no. 1 tornado spot
in the nation. Sooner or later the weather shifts and this might
be the year. Too bad gas prices suck!

Mike

PS: I would not write off a stray storm in E. NM this Thursday.

[Cstok]

Well looking at the long range GFS... it does seem that there might be some action May 22nd and 23rd.... But I am a rookie, so I could be way off. Also I realize we are talking about 15 -16 days from now so...

Any thoughts??

[Simone Lussardi]

Well, from the other side of the ocean I can tell that... any anomaly do not go alone (this sound like "warmer than it currently is" :lol: :lol: ). Here we are having a stronger and lower latitude jet than normal, with 500 hpa troughs that come often.

I believe this year for you guys the season will start late but the potential energy for the storms will be higher.

Moreover, as Mike wrote above, I believe it will be the year of the southern regions (Texas, Oklahoma) which the latest years didn't count many events like in the past.

Just my thougts :)

:wink:

[Andy Wehrle]

Originally posted by Simone Lussardi
I believe this year for you guys the season will start late but the potential energy for the storms will be higher.

Well, the season is already starting "late"...just like last year. Everybody's record tornado numbers were set in the period May 22-29. So I'm still holding out hope...keeping fingers crossed. Besides, Wisconsin's "season" lasts through all of June and into July...any March/April/May storm days are just a bonus. :D

[Marcus Opitz]

A late spring would not nessesarily be a bad thing, as My access to NE and IA is easy. The middle to latter part of June has been good to those areas in the past.

[Cstok]

Any opinions on how late May is shaping up. It does look like a good pattern is setting up around 22nd - 24th. Am I way off??

[Mike Johnson]

There are always storms to chase! Today, May 15th., there was a
TVS meso storm near Limon, CO. The cloud levels were too high
for a touch down (?) There are always storms if you want to take
a chance!

Mike

[Alex Lamers]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

I dont know...it looks kind of bleak to me based on the CPC graphics. Extended range GFS loops show a huge neg height anomaly setting up across the Ern CONUS which means northwesterly flow over the heartland and rather meager chase conditions. June should be better.

...Alex Lamers...