Is The Season Over?

[Brian Press]

Hey St'ers,

I'm stuck here in California with a little money saved and wondering if I'm gona get one more chance for some big stuff. I know it could happen but what do you all think?

I was chompping at the bit to go out June 8th - 13th but because of other obligations it was a no go and I was dying this last week watching you guys get the storms of the year.

Anyway, looks like a nice healthy ridge getting ready to build in for a while. I wish that trough on the West Coast would slam it down and move on in.

From your experience is our tornado days limited untill fall?

Thanks,

B.p.

[John Sickels]

Yeah, it looks like a ridge is going to keep things quiet for the next 7-10 days.

From my experience living in NE Kansas for 15 years, there is often a window of severe weather in late June/first week of July ("natural fireworks"), but by July 10th at the latest the chance for tornadoes pretty much dries up around here. We'll have the occasional nocturnal MCS, sometimes airmass/popcorn storms on the days when the heat cap is weak, but I pretty much stop worrying about tornadoes by the 10th of July.

Up in Iowa and Nebraska, things can stay active for longer tornadowise.

[Mikey Gribble]

I think once the ridge gets pushed out, we will get one more good system to come through that will produce a fair number of tornadoes. It will more than likely be up North though. Late June can be very good to chasers. Look at the Manchester SD tornado from June 24, 2003.

[Jeff Wear]

the GFS has been pretty consistent the past few days of sending the energy from the West Coast trough up into Canada as the ridge continues to build northward across the Plains. I'd say chase opportunites are the most part over for the Plains for at least the next week or two.

if I were in southern CA right now I'd definitely be keeping my eyes on that west coast trough however. the disturbance forecast to move into northern CA beginning Friday is looking extremely impressive for this late in the year, and if it ends up as strong as forecast I would not at all be surprised to see yet another tornado report in the Sacramento Valley sometime this weekend.

[Brian Press]

Yeah, I was thinking of maybe doing a Northern Cal chase. Never chased up their but 6 hours away, hummmm.. might be worth a go. We shall see.

[Alex Lamers]

We're going to be high and dry here in Southern Wisconsin for awhile. Next forseeable chance of precip: Mid-Late Next Week.

Ugh...there goes the grass. :(

...Alex Lamers...

[Justin Turcotte]

Looks pretty quiet down south for a while but I am becoming increasingly optimistic that my area in the far northern plains will have several chances of heavy weather as shortwaves ride the ridge. See you all in the great white north.

[Craig Maire II]

The chase season isn't over for me until October 31st.... :D

[bill mudd]

Brian,
Instead of driving 6 HRS into N california try the round trip thing to Denver for $400 (frontier) and stay there in a cheap hotel till you get the daily forecasts (oh yea you need to rent a car too)
there is plenty of action up there this time of year in the upslopes and the structured cells going through there are like none others....
Just an idea...and one that worked real well for me.... after months of waiting and looking at options for June.
Bill
PS the Sierra Nevadas do start to go off in August with some great monsoon flows...plus the south end of the sierras provide some great lenticulars and ocassional wall clouds..

[David Wolfson]

It looks like the southwest monsoon flow may be setting up early, with some decent (for summer) upper shear. We may not need to go far :D .

[Brian Press]

Thanks Bill,

Yeah, I have a friend that can get me to Denver for $100 bucks. He flys for united.

I just have to be mindful of the Family. Being married with kids and another on the way makes timing an issue. But Yes. I like the Denver idea. Have considered that as well.

I am hoping for a 2 or 3 day chase in the next few weeks.

Keeeping an eye on the systems.

Thanks for your insight,

B.p.

[davecarlsen]

The season is just getting underway for us northerners! 8)

[Joe Zemek]

Aboslutely go chasing in late June/early July.

NE Colorado, most of Nebraska (stay out of the Sandhills), Iowa, & South Dakota will give you plenty to see, as well as beautiful, less crowded country to chase in.

[Joel Wright]

As long as it's still the "warm season", the season's never over in my opinion. We're coming up on the time of year when we can see some incredible CAPE values. I would never turn my back on high CAPE, even when all else doesn't seem to be coming together.

I also seem to have an unusual love for the nocturnal MCC's that frequent the midwest in mid summer. This is usually the time when the highest wind gusts blow out of fast moving derechoes....

[APritchard]

As long as it's still the "warm season", the season's never over in my opinion. We're coming up on the time of year when we can see some incredible CAPE values. I would never turn my back on high CAPE, even when all else doesn't seem to be coming together.

I also seem to have an unusual love for the nocturnal MCC's that frequent the midwest in mid summer. This is usually the time when the highest wind gusts blow out of fast moving derechoes....

As a fellow Illinoisain, I too share that love. Those things also seem to bring the most prolific nighttime lightning displays.

Great to just park yourself out in the country, watch the light show, and then brace for the winds!

The summer months also seem to bring more early morning events, usually in conjunction with those mcs's. Not uncommon for me to wake up in some form of a watch box during morning hours during July and August.

[Anthony Silver]

IMO, the chase season isnt over until late fall. Sure we're getting closer to summer now, and the window for major severe weather outbreaks is coming to a close, but tornadoes and other severe weather can still occur well into the summer months, even though the events tend to be more isolated. Summer usually brings MCS activity to the Plains region, and with that comes lightning photos!

[Andy Wehrle]

Not by a long shot. Not even in the southern Plains-Oklahoma is getting a big honkin' derecho (which organized from earlier supercells) blasting through right now. The CPC Hazards Outlook ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ts/threats.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.html) ) hints at an active severe weather pattern continuing for much of the Midwest. They only have one area outlined on the map, but talk about several others in the discussion.

I think some areas are going to be quiet at least until mid-next week thanks to ridging, but as long as troughs out west keep sending shortwave energy across the country... :D Not to mention that in mid-late June into July, it is not uncommon to see RICH 70+ moisture well into the northern Plains.

[Warren Eckels]

Don't think Oklahoma City...think I-94. A passport may come in handy. So will lots and lots of water.

I just checked out the 6/18 0Z GFS run and the SPC convective outlooks, and the Plains south of I-80 are in for a heat wave with little precipitation. The Dakotas, Canadian Prairies and the Midwest plan to host the northeast quadrant of a ridge over the central and southern Plains for the next two weeks.

In very rough terms, a weak cold front will go through the Great Lakes on June 21, but the Plains ridge will assert itself on the 23rd in brutal terms (97 F in Minneapolis and Chicago, 100 F in Des Moines). On the 24th, an area of convection from Minneapolis to Detroit is expected.

Beyond that, models can only tell the most general trends. It's tempting to say that the I-94 corridor will be hovering around 95 F from June 23 to July 2, but more than a week out, all that can be said with any assurance is "above normal temperatures likely".

[Geoff Boyle]

Nah, it's just starting for me. I hope the first 2 weeks of July are as good as last year.