Too Much Hype?

[Cole McConnell]

What do you think?

[Chris Strahan]

I say no, just because of the safety factor for those living there. As it is, many did not evacuate or are now heading home. I think if this had not weakened so much over the last 24 hours, there would not be much of NO left today

[John Erwin]

I don't think anything was overhyped on this; the storm itself has proven to be quite strong and damaging; luckily New Orleans managed to once again avoid the full brunt. Better for people to be prepared and take precautions rather than the alternative...

We still a few hours to go though.. lots of damage over Biloxi way and inland to consider.

[Jeff Snyder]

Absolutely not. All indication were that New Orleans faced a very real POSSIBILITY of catastrophic damage. Hurricanes are NEVER entirely forecastable. The storm took a relatively huge hit overnight (just look at the IR loop) which dropped winds from Cat 5 to probably more like Cat 3. A track only 30 miles to the west would have brought the eyewall across downtown New Orleans, and I seriously think we'd definately be looking at a different scenario. Unfortunately, there is NO way to forecast at 15-20 mile resolution 24-48 hours out. The track wasn't too surprising, but the relatively quick drop in intensity (the central pressure rose 20mb in 12 hrs) surprise me (and most I'd think).

The main problem here is that a "catastrophe" was anticipated, and it largely busted (FOR NEW ORLEANS). Yes, there's likely some signficant damage in New Orleans, but absolutely nothing like what was anticipated. This situation seemed to be similar to digital signals -- either a 1 or a 0. Things either were going to be "pretty bad" (levees hold, etc) or catastrohpic (levees break, massive flooding and loss of life). Again, certainly can't blaim the forecasters, since the wobble was within the noise level (in the words of an NHC forecaster last night). However, you absolutely cannot bust a "doomsday" forecast. Again, the NHC has been saying "POSSIBLE CATASTROPHE" for a while, but the media has made it seem like a catastrophy was a guarantee. FAR is critical for high-end events... People who didn't get out of the way for a cat 4-5 forecast certainly won't get out next time... There was already a mentality of "these things always weaken or move", and this certainly doesn't again. I was reiterate a third time -- this is not a comment on the forecasters. The forecast was largely a huge success since they've hit on a hit east of New Orleans for a couple of days.

If small parts of the roof of the Superdome were removed with 80-100mph winds this morning, what in the world would have happened in 175-200mph. I can't imagine that structure would have held up to that type of wind. Yes, only very small parts of the roof lining were removed, but a double in wind speed essentially yields a 4-fold increase in wind energy.

[Miriam Lawrence]

Absolutely not.

Seems to me that 20 miles made the difference between some nasty damage and real catastrophe. If the storm hadn't taken that tiny jog to the east as it made landfall, much of NO would probably be under water right now. Better safe than sorry. If ever a situation deserved hype, this was it, IMO.

Pretty much the strongest language was coming out of the emergency managers and the municipal government. The media was just reporting what they were saying. Oh, and let us not forget that unbelievable NWS statement last night. That document was practically predicting the Rapture!

[HAltschule]

Now if the poll was asking whether The Weather Channel and some of the other channels had too much hype, then....well, yes. When a field reporter is saying that sustained winds are really blowing furiously, somewhere around 30mph (?@!?!), that doesn't impress me. 30 MPH...so what. It does that all winter in Albany. And when a field reporter is talking, stumbling and losing their balance...and then a citizen walks behind them pretty casually without any problem...it doesn't impress me. It tells me they are trying to sensationalize the story. Having been a TV Met. for 7 years, I know what the TV biz is all about. And my conclusion can be summarized as such: "Save the drama for your mama and just tell us and show us the facts". Unfortunately, some of the veteran Met's are guilty of this too.

[Cole McConnell]

Now if the poll was asking whether The Weather Channel and some of the other channels had too much hype, then....well, yes. When a field reporter is saying that sustained winds are really blowing furiously, somewhere around 30mph (?@!?!), that doesn't impress me. 30 MPH...so what. It does that all winter in Albany. And when a field reporter is talking, stumbling and losing their balance...and then a citizen walks behind them pretty casually without any problem...it doesn't impress me. It tells me they are trying to sensationalize the story. Having been a TV Met. for 7 years, I know what the TV biz is all about. And my conclusion can be summarized as such: "Save the drama for your mama and just tell us and show us the facts". Unfortunately, some of the veteran Met's are guilty of this too.

Exactly, why I started the poll.

[HAltschule]

Do there names rhyme with, I don't know, Pefanie Jabrams or Kim Santore?

[Kurt Silvey]

I voted no, BUT … I would like to separate the NWS & NHC for the mainstream media. Did they over hype … NO. They did their jobs, as they should. They gave warnings of very real possible scenarios. The people of SE LA are very lucking this morning. As for the Mainstream media YES, the headlines and lead-ins I saw on Fox last night were nothing short of scare mongering. “ Deadly Cat 5 Storm Kills 7 in Florida” The storm was barley Cat 1 when it went through FL 3 days before. These sort of headlines don’t do anything but try to hype.

[Rob_Davis]

If anything, I would say it appears that they UNDERhyped the threat to Mississippi and Alabama. But that doesn't translate to an OVERhype of the New Orleans threat.

[Miriam Lawrence]

Fair enough. I've been watching exclusively streaming coverage from the local NO stations (we don't get cable at our house so I don't watch TWC or Fox or CNN) and I think they have done a very good job of getting the facts out -- and the few field reports I caught were quite reasonable too.

[Edward Ballou]

My wife and I were watching CNN yesterday and a lady was giving the weather analysis of Katrina. She was stressing over and over how bad it could be. She was giving one last roundup of the situation and says, "Absolutely <insert CNN name here>, this is a very intense situation as there will be a hellheck of a lot of rain as was seen from when Katrina went through South Florida."

My wife whipped around and was like, "Did she just say a hell?" I nodded my head and we laughed about it.

The meteorologist was noticeably nervous and angry afterward.

Maybe they just need to get that crazy guy in from the Charlotte station to emphasize how bad things could be.

[HAltschule]

One TWC anchor/reporter was standing behind a backdrop of a casino in Biloxi, MS and as he went to commercial said, you see this casino behind me, it won't be there tomorrow. At least something to that effect. That is just irresponsible and I'd expect more professionalism from a Meteorologist.

[Rob_Davis]

My wife whipped around and was like, "Did she just say a hell?"
Sheppard Smith did the same thing on Fox. He said something about "a hell of a lot of rain" and the studio hosts got kind of big eyed for a second.

Of course, that wasn't near as good as the guy on the street who told Smith that it was, "NONE OF YOUR FU**IN' BUSINESS!!" on air. :lol:

[Chris Carlson]

My wife whipped around and was like, "Did she just say a hell?"
Sheppard Smith did the same thing on Fox. He said something about "a hell of a lot of rain" and the studio hosts got kind of big eyed for a second.

Of course, that wasn't near as good as the guy on the street who told Smith that it was, "NONE OF YOUR FU**IN' BUSINESS!!" on air. :lol:

Yeah, that was funny but also uncalled for. As for if it's over hyped, I'd say no. Most of the hype really didn't even happen until Saturday Morning. Once it went to 5, that's when the media started to go crazy. But anyway, how many storms are there they do major damage to a sports arena (see photo below, remember roof should be all white)?

http://us.news3.yimg.com/us.i2.yimg.com/p/ap/20050829/capt.ladm11408291538.hurricane_katrina_ladm114.jpg

[David Wolfson]

I don't think there was too much hype, but there was (and is) far too little attention to the danger and damage potential away from the track and inland. For example, the radar right now shows Hattiesburg on the point of getting cored as the massive storm pulls in its angular momentum. And the reports from the Mississippi coast are anything but reassuring.

It also isn't clear to me that NO won't fill up like a bathtub. If indeed major levees are breached, the flood won't happen instantaneously, but will be very bad nonetheless.

[Brandon Clement]

Anderson Cooper went way overboard. He was in BR near the Ms river brige screaming ove the really high winds (less thean 30mph gusts) and going crazy showing the surge from the Ms river??? I guess he was just trying to make a story, but why when there is so much more going on. Other than that it has been much better than Dennis. Dennis was nothing compared to K and was hyped up just as much if not more.

[rdale]

Before we blame the media - let's recall that the NWS in New Orleans said:

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

They didn't say it was the worse-case scenario - they said IT WOULD HAPPEN.

[Billy Joe]

Miami thought they dodged a bullet too. They thought Andrew was over-hyped too. Then... they saw the path of the eye... Homestead.

This isn't over yet... soon we will witness the aftermath. It won't be pretty.

[Justin Turcotte]

Before we blame the media - let's recall that the NWS in New Orleans said:....
They didn't say it was the worse-case scenario - they said IT WOULD HAPPEN.

We have yet to get much information east of N.O. Sounds like there was a Camille type storm surge in MS.

[Brandon Clement]

Come to think of it the Ms gulf coast and mobile area where not hyped near enough and New Orleans was looking at a natural disaster like this country has never seen so I don't think it was overhyped for the most part.

[John Erwin]

Before we blame the media - let's recall that the NWS in New Orleans

They didn't say it was the worse-case scenario - they said IT WOULD HAPPEN.

While I agree the language was particularly strong in that report, let's not forget that it's one persons words and our interpretation of what he/she meant.

I still think it's better to err on the side of caution rather than not warn at all about the potential. It's hard to win though.. no matter what they do the NWS is bound to be criticized by certain groups..

[Jeff Snyder]

While I agree the language was particularly strong in that report, let's not forget that it's one persons words and our interpretation of what he/she meant.


I don't really agree with this... Forecasters issue products on behalf of the NWS organization. The product at hand was officially issued by NWSFO LIX, so it wasn't like it was a blog on that particular forecaster's website. I do think they should have denoted a little more uncertainty than they did. That said, there's a difference in what they did (in trying to protect lives) than some of the media folks who make a 40mph wind seem like 200mph winds.

[Brandon]

Check out this story.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/w...hebigone_1.html (http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html)


In your opinion, is this article realistic or overblown?

[John Erwin]

While I agree the language was particularly strong in that report, let's not forget that it's one persons words and our interpretation of what he/she meant.


I don't really agree with this... Forecasters issue products on behalf of the NWS organization.

Agreed, but I notice that not eveyone uses the same "language" or style of writing in their report. Some forcasters seem to convey things a little better than others...

[Bill Tabor]

Whereas I don't believe the storm was really over hyped because there was a real chance for catastrophic damage in NO what I don't quite get is why there were really no forecasters discussing the real possibility that this thing may weaken. I was talking with Gene Moore yesterday and he mentioned how Tim Marshall was already talking of the likelyhood of dry air entrainment causing a weakening of the storm. This was more than 12 hours before landfall. That is exactly what ended up happening IMO. That tells me there were some forecasters that probably saw this coming, but no one was speaking up - at least not publicly. Perhaps because of this there really is some hype by the media and a tendency to supress any info that would lower the strength and decrease their ratings. We really didn't hear of any weakening until it was already apparent that it had occurred. Additionally NO is about 35 miles from the true coast so some weakening will occur just because it is beyond the initial landfall area.

With that said, I know it is still a roll of the dice. Perhaps they didn't know how much the dry air would weaken it. Perhaps they want to hype it enough so people take it seriously. My guess is the people that came out worse on this were the people to the east closer to the eyewall and surge that weren't in the city of NO.

[Anonymous]

Absolutely it was overhyped, as every landfalling hurricane is. I totally understand that it can be justified by saying it saved lives, and that catastrophic destruction was/is possible. But the key word is possible. Virtually the only person i heard who mentioned the likelihood of weakening was Lyons on the wxchannel, despite all meteorological considerations indicating weakening. Everyone else said "definite Cat 5, definite levy breaks etc" Consider Geraldo's "verbatum" reading of the infamous NWS (which he referred to as National Weather Center) Public Info Statement, as images of Homestead were shown in the background. Cut to some "expert" from Accuweather who literally gauranteed a Cat 5, and said 70% of NO would be under water from the 25+ foot surge. That's not hype?? Yeah, it may have saved lives, but how many people next hurricane will say "yeah, they said it would take out concrete hotels last time too" and proceed to put themselves in front of real 200 mph winds? those people will die, thanks to the so-called well-intentioned hyping by the media. Stan

[nickgrillo]

Absolutely it was overhyped, as every landfalling hurricane is. I totally understand that it can be justified by saying it saved lives, and that catastrophic destruction was/is possible. But the key word is possible.

Well, I would have to disagree with you there... Not EVERY hurricane is overhyped. This hurricane was looking to bring death and destruction to New Orleans like we've never seen before... So, I could understand why everybody was "hyping".

[Anonymous]

Before we blame the media - let's recall that the NWS in New Orleans said:

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

They didn't say it was the worse-case scenario - they said IT WOULD HAPPEN.

That is what most people on here were saying would happen.

[nickgrillo]

Before we blame the media - let's recall that the NWS in New Orleans said:

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

They didn't say it was the worse-case scenario - they said IT WOULD HAPPEN.

That is what most people on here were saying would happen.

Becuase it was almost a sure bet that it WOULD happen...

[HAltschule]

Amazing. Whether the storm was overhyped or not by the NWS or the media...PLENTY of warning and urging for evacuations was given to everybody. Now comes word that residents are stranded on rooftops and houses where flooding has occurred and is worsening. I have one word to summarize them: Idiots!! From what I'm hearing (esp. in Biloxi and Gulfport, MS areaa), the Fire Department is saying oh well...we told you to evacuate and you didn't. Now we're not risking our lives to come get you. We'll get you when the conditions become safer.

Good for the fire department!!

Sincerely,

The artist formerly known to hate dumb people.

[HAltschule]

But I hope they survive this and are safe. I'm not that mean.

[Scott Olson]

Katrina didn't just fizzle away and cause no harm. Yeah the wording is a little strong the NWS message but alot of us believed the potiental for a catastrophic event was real and serious and the forecasters at NHC have to kind of take the worst case sceanrio when it comes to these things. Imagine the hell they would get for underforecasting it or for making it sound like it was not a very serious situation if it then went and caused devastation. Preliminary reports makes it looks like NO has not been submerged into water. But it appears that Katrina has caused some major damage in some areas and considerable damage in a wide swath across SE LA and SW MS. I don't fault the NWS or NHC for that matter for anything except doing an exceptional job in the face of insurmountable pressure. As for the media they did some hyping but that's usually what I expect from them and maybe it is determental to the next time a Hurricane comes through but this event was hyped across the board because of a real danger a major Hurricane posed in this region. My only real complaint is the same as Jeff's regarding so called 'media' reported windspeeds.

[Alex Lamers]

Flooding is indeed catastrophic. Have you seen the warnings? Advising people to chop their way to their roofs. Cantore had water coming into the retirement home he was at 1/2 mile inland which was 27 feet above sea level! This could be record surge! No way was it overhyped

[Cindy Simons]

Flooding is indeed catastrophic. Have you seen the warnings? Advising people to chop their way to their roofs. Cantore had water coming into the retirement home he was at 1/2 mile inland which was 27 feet above sea level! This could be record surge! No way was it overhyped

Agreed. We have yet to fully comprehend the magnitude of the devastation.

[CCASEY]

I would have to agree with the previous post. From what I have read, it seems as if there were two options when Katrina hit land--it would have strengthened or weakened. Hence, the art and science of forecasting, which means you are predicting the probablity of something happening. I am not an expert by any means, but if the possibility exists that it might have strengthened, it makes sense that the worse case scenario be presented. And, even when the worst case scenario was presented, people did not automatically move or leave. Also, even for those who think it was overhyped, the "over hyping" or presentation of the worst case scenario may have set certain teams into mobilization faster than if a lesser warning was posted. Thus, it may appear to look over hyped because response teams were in place to react to it.

[Andrew Khan]

I do not think the "Over-Hyped" it, but rather, were trying to save peoples lives by constantly talking about it.

[Lisa Wadlow]

IMO "overhyping" is better than "underhyping". Had they erred on the side of caution in their warnings and the damage and loss of life was totally catastrophic everyone would have wanted their heads on a platter. Better safe than sorry.

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Sorry ... I have to bust on FOX news

I loved the line from FOX news "Katrina doing damage doing the gulf coast, what will it do to your state and what will you expect, find out in the chilling forecast tonight ..."

Then there was the female meteorologist wanting to know what meteorologists think about this while getting really choked up about the storm ... that was so priceless

Geraldo in his infinite wisdom went on and on about doomsday this and that while talking about Andrew, talking about the National Weather Center(?), and drawing more American troop deployments in the sand

Sheppard getting scared of being in NO while experts are talking about all of NO flooding

Accuweather just hammering to the audience how it will be a Cat 5, total catastrophe and destruction, NO will be totally flooded ...

Anderson Cooper making a freakin' big deal about a swinging crane no where near any human population ... he was sitting in some sort of boonie area along the mighty mississippi where only a pedestrian bridge reside

FOX cameras set upon hotel signs, etc, just waiting for them to fall and be all excited!!! OOOOOHHHH!

I'm sure there are more examples

Did the storm get hyped? NO ... there are currently a lot of idiots in extreme SE Louisiana where the Mississippi drains ... Cat 5 or not, there's very little means of getting out of there ... what were those people thinking? And now they are on roofs begging for help? Truly amazing, and now others have to risk their lives for the stupidity of others.

[Anonymous]

Yes, there were two possibilities (strengthen or weaken), but which was more likely? How many times has a 170 mph storm become stronger 24 hours later? When it is entering more shear, shallower waters, poorer environmental conditions, and is already showing signs of dry air entrainment? Yes, there's not much precedence and our intensity forecasts are not super-reliable, but that's not the point. The point is that it was more likely to weaken than strengthen--and this is not monday morning quarterbacking because the true experts i saw yesterday all pointed this out yesterday--just read the nhc discussions. The media did NOT report this as they should of, and that is avoiding the facts in favor of hype. Whether it is "over" hyping or not i guess is just according to the way you look at it-Stan

[guest aaron]

ya know, i can see this storm getting lots of news coverage, this is what new orleans had been fearing for some time, and we still yet dont know the extent of the damage, however, i dont think it is necessary for the news crews to create fear among the viewers of their programs

[John Erwin]

however, i dont think it is necessary for the news crews to create fear among the viewers of their programs

It looks like some of those people currently camping on the roofs of their homes could have used some of that fear before this storm hit....

[Anonymous]

thats a good point Erwin, what i meant was unneccessary fear, there is no need to start screaming over a small tree getting uprooted, they are trying to make viewers feel scared so they will feel "protected" by them and keep watching....besides, anyone who stays at the landfall point for a hurricane like this is not playing with a full deck of cards....i can see a 2 or maybe even a low end 3, but not this

[guest aaron]

thats a good point Erwin, what i meant was unneccessary fear, there is no need to start screaming over a small tree getting uprooted, they are trying to make viewers feel scared so they will feel "protected" by them and keep watching....besides, anyone who stays at the landfall point for a hurricane like this is not playing with a full deck of cards....i can see a 2 or maybe even a low end 3, but not this

[John Erwin]

what i meant was unneccessary fear, there is no need to start screaming over a small tree getting uprooted

Well I would agree with those kind of cases... a lot of those reporters can be real drama queens, or tend to tunnel-lock onto anything visually stimulating at their location...however I'm treating the entire situation as a whole.

[Dave Kaplow]

Yes, there were two possibilities (strengthen or weaken), but which was more likely? How many times has a 170 mph storm become stronger 24 hours later? When it is entering more shear, shallower waters, poorer environmental conditions, and is already showing signs of dry air entrainment? Yes, there's not much precedence and our intensity forecasts are not super-reliable, but that's not the point. The point is that it was more likely to weaken than strengthen--and this is not monday morning quarterbacking because the true experts i saw yesterday all pointed this out yesterday--just read the nhc discussions. The media did NOT report this as they should of, and that is avoiding the facts in favor of hype. Whether it is "over" hyping or not i guess is just according to the way you look at it-Stan

The media might not have reported this as they should have, but IMO they weren't really much more apocalytic then us "experts" here at Stormtrack. Yesterday the forum was filled with talk about doomsday scenarios and disasters of epic proportion. And with good reason: the potential was there, and the weakening trend wasn't apparent until late last night. In short, it's only human to focus on the worst case scenario, and that is what everybody did. The media has much to atone for, but in this case they mostly just reported what the knowledgable people were saying. Maybe their tone was a bit more alarmist, but the sense of the words was essentially the same as what we were saying right here.

Disclosure: At least that's the impression that I get. I didn't actually watch TV yesterday - I seldom do, ever - so most of what I know about the on-air media coverage of Katrina is 2nd hand. I did check out all the major web sites, though, and I can't imagine that the online content was all that different from what the media was broadcasting.

[Anonymous]

Yes, I thought it was over-hyped, and I can say so because I didn't over-hype it. Doesn't matter hopw serious it might be, a hurricane landfall is always going to be wonderful television. I'm not interested in tropical weather to begin with, so the past few days have been pretty grating for me personally.

[Anonymous]

Originally posted by HAltschule
<snip> PLENTY of warning and urging for evacuations was given to everybody. Now comes word that residents are stranded on rooftops and houses where flooding has occurred and is worsening. I have one word to summarize them: Idiots!!


I know this a little off-topic, since this thread is supposed to be about hype, but I had to comment on the posts like the one above berating people who "chose" to ride out the storm.

It sure makes for great TV to show the old-timers who say they've never left and they'll never leave, and it makes for great journal posts to decry the idiots who seem to be getting what they deserve by not following an evac order.

But let's remember something -- some of those people likely stayed in their homes (or in shelters) because they couldn't evacuate for some reason, not necessarily because they didn't want to do so. What if you live in the city and don't own a car? What if you're a homebound person? What if you're dirt-poor like a lot of folks in rural LA-MS and you don't have enough cash flow to load the fam up in the car, drive hundreds of miles, and pay for a Motel 6? If I'm in a low-income family with no disposable income, maybe we roll the dice and stay home, hope that you'll be back at work on Wednesday -- it'll be hard enough to make ends meet with those two or three lost work days. You'll be looking pretty dumb if you screw the family finances for months but the storm didn't hit as hard as it could have.

Don't get me wrong, I've always thought there was an element of "We told you so" when a cyclone hit a coastal or near-coastal community -- it's like, if you're worried about hurricanes, live in Kansas! (Of course there you have tornadoes...) I'm just saying, though, it's easy to beat up on those people, but we really don't know their situation and circumstances. Something to think about.

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by Lisa Wadlow
IMO \"overhyping\" is better than \"underhyping\". Had they erred on the side of caution in their warnings and the damage and loss of life was totally catastrophic everyone would have wanted their heads on a platter. Better safe than sorry.

Yes, underhyping could cause immediate danger to peoples lives.

[Anonymous]

[quote] <snip>
But let's remember something -- some of those people likely stayed in their homes (or in shelters) because they couldn't evacuate for some reason, not necessarily because they didn't want to do so.

Yes, you are right about this. There were some people who couldn't evacuate for whatever reason. That is a different story.

But, if they are not mobility impaired in some way, they could have walked to one of the local shelters. 10K+ other people did just that.

I simply don't understand the thought process of those who were able to leave, but chose to ignore the rational advice of experts.... to get out!
Survival of the fittest perhaps.

[B Doss]

I suspected this would be the sceanrio before I went to bed last night, however, as more reports are coming in, I'm concerned that there's more to it than meets the eye. Reports of a collapsed hotel, collapsed apartment buidlings, people trapped, muted screams, widespread distress calls, mutiple total structual failures. Oil rigs floating away. A cruise ship broke in half and sank into the Gulf. Numerous torandoes on the ground, with damage being reported, massive storm surges, 40,000 or more homes under water in New Orleans. Gasoline now jumping from $2.54 to over $3/gallon locally. Reports coming in of cathastrophic damage in Mississippi. Multiple large structures leveled. Highways removed. Some pictures of the New Orleans skyline remind me of Ft. Worth's downtown after the 3/28/2000 F2. While parts of New Orleans were grazed by the bullet, it appears to be a fatal shot for east Lousiana and Mississippi.

[Warren Eckels]

At midnight CST, Katrina's winds were estimated at 160 mph and the NWS discussion gave reasons that the storm could weaken or had already weakened. Katrina hit with winds of 145 mph, a weakening of 15 mph. Further, the NWS repeatedly stated over the evening and early morning that the storm was expected to hit as a Cat 4 or a Cat 5.

Now:
IF the storm had been travelling at 10 mph instead of 15 mph,
IF the storm's eye had crossed metro New Orleans five miles further west,
IF the storm had struck four hours later, after it repaired its eyewall, or
IF a bunch of dry air didn't hit the northwest flank of the storm overnight,

we could have seen the doomsday scenario.

And, of course, the people of Gulfport, MS probably do not believe that Katrina was overhyped.

Anyway, we now return to Aruba for the very latest on the Natalee Holloway disappearance...

[Jim Tang]

No overhype this time, despite the weakening and the sudden wobble, Katrina remained a formidable hurricane and has caused catastrophic damage.

[Alex Lamers]

First and foremost, a Category Four hurricane is nothing to sneeze at. People are saying this was overhyped because they aren't seeing images of rows of houses just destroyed. The reason you aren't seeing this is because you are only seeing what the media is seeing right now, and they are isolated to specific locations because of flooding and damage. The worst damage probably has yet to be shot by the media.

But what about those obs stations, and those reporters? No ASOS/AWOS stations reported 145-150 mph winds, what about that? Well obviously they reach a point where they do get destroyed and if you think of the actual land area that those stations cover, it is EXTREMELY limited in sampling wind speeds. As far as the reporters, of course they are going to EXAGGERATE. They'll say its really windy and only have gusts to 20 mph. They're trying to get a story. If anything, their exaggeration saved lives. Again, they don't cover a very broad area either.

Therefore the current sampling of data we have is extremely limited and it is difficult to make a case for this being overhyped...or not as damaging as expected when you haven't seen the worst damage!

Don't forget that this was the fourth strongest storm ever in the Atlantic Basin and showed no clear and obvious signs of major weakening. They had to stress the potential danger of this storm.

But above all, how can you make a case for this being overhyped even based on the data that we DO have? An oil rig was blown loose and is now lodged under a bridge in Mobile, AL! Boats were floating across paralleling highways. Looking at video of New Orleans, most of the city is underwater because Ponchatrain spilled over the levees or the levees were breached. There was as much as 20 feet of water in some areas of the New Orleans metro. Of course while the storm was 145 mph...that is in a limited core and the winds are weaker on the backside but they were still strong enough to cause serious structural damage and peel the surface off the Superdome, etc. That was to be expected. But the flooding is incredible and that will spawn more problems, disease, snakes, fire ants, etc. Hundreds of people were stranded on their roofs because of the rapidly rising water. To say that New Orleans was spared is ludicrous. Unless you live in New Orleans and your house was impacted, you can't really say that and be credible. It is irresponsible and you'd look like a jerk telling that to a guy who had water up to the edge of his roof.

And let's not forget Mississippi and Alabama. The levees were topped in Mobile Bay too! From what I've heard in Mississippi, entire buildings are just gone and the damage is incredible. A recent post said that some chasers said that Biloxi and Gulfport are "unrecognizable". Jim Cantore was in a retirement home and 27 ft above sea level 1/2 mile inland and water came in on the first floor! Another report I heard was a location 30 ft above sea level had the first floor filling up too. The surge was tremendous and the area that received the core of the eyewall winds should be extremely damaged.

Finally you have to measure it by the people that it impacts, and from the video I've seen, residents viewing areal shots are in shock...some crying. This was a devastating storm, a major hurricane and as such was not overhyped. They forecast New Orleans would fill up with water and they were right.

Sorry for the rant, but thats my story and I'm sticking to it. Everyone under the hurricane warning was adversely impacted and got what was forecasted.

...Alex Lamers...

[B Ozanne]

Its getting a lot worse down there. Seems like this always happens after the big ones!

[Rob_Davis]

Reports of a collapsed hotel, collapsed apartment buidlings, people trapped, muted screams, widespread distress calls, mutiple total structual failures. Oil rigs floating away. A cruise ship broke in half and sank into the Gulf. Numerous torandoes on the ground, with damage being reported, massive storm surges, 40,000 or more homes under water in New Orleans. Gasoline now jumping from $2.54 to over $3/gallon locally. Reports coming in of cathastrophic damage in Mississippi. Multiple large structures leveled. Highways removed.
To really put the magnatude into perspective, stop for a moment and realize that any single one of those incidents by themselves would have been major national news for a week!

But since they all happened at once, the coverage of all of them total will hardly last more than a week. It's like when your body experiences so much overwhelming pain that it simply shuts down your ability to feel it anymore, leaving you feeling like you really aren't hurt as bad as you are. Perception is sometimes very deceptive.

[Anonymous]

[quote]Reports of a collapsed hotel, collapsed apartment buidlings, people trapped, muted screams, widespread distress calls, mutiple total structual failures. Oil rigs floating away. A cruise ship broke in half and sank into the Gulf. Numerous torandoes on the ground, with damage being reported, massive storm surges, 40,000 or more homes under water in New Orleans. Gasoline now jumping from $2.54 to over $3/gallon locally. Reports coming in of cathastrophic damage in Mississippi. Multiple large structures leveled. Highways removed.

A cruise ship? I havn't heard this yet. Where can I find that information?

[Anonymous]

NO! This was ABSOLUTELY NOT overhyped!

[Kurt Wayne]

...and we don't even yet know what effect this is going to have on Mississippi River shipping traffic through N.O. or at the mouth of Ol' man river, only our most important U.S. waterway (linking and taking all traffic from pretty much all the other important ones, like the Missouri, the Arkansas, the Ohio and the Red).

[Bill Tabor]

Well, it is now becoming apparent that this was absolutely not overhyped. This storm had landfall as Cat 4 and 140mph winds and track passing 30 miles or so east of New Orleans.

I am now seeing that they are reporting up to 80% of New Orleans is flooded and the level is rising as rivers are approaching max. Because hurricane force winds were so widespread (like 150 miles from center) the damage to areas far away is still great. This true also inland as the hurricane continued to cause wind damage as it went inland. Finally it appears flooding and storm surge will be the real killers. I think a large majority of poor, elderly, and handicapped people didn't leave. There was a large number of them that built homes near the coast in substandard housing. Most likely over a large area many of these were washed away. Still people are trapped because of high water over a large area on their roofs, in the superdome, and in their attics. The high water will make it difficult to get help and assistance to the area quickly which will provide more time for sewage, bacteria, and disease, along with mosquitos to do their part and provide the real killers...disease. Keep in mind people can't live long without fresh water also and this is still August and temps are very high for those exposed and not used to being outside.

While the strength of the hurricane weakened from that of Camille at landfall and New Orleans didn't end up sustaining a direct hit it now appears the levees were barely damaged just enough to now cause them to begin failing. Water levels may not rise to 3 stories as previously mentioned in the worst case scenario, but may in many places be up to the roofs of single story homes - particularly in poor areas.

It seems it will be days or weeks before we know the full magnitude of this disaster just as we didn't know immediately the full effects of the Indian Tsunami right away. I'm afraid this may end up making the damage and destruction of Andrew pale in comparison primarily because of where it hit, and what it was able to do with levees and low lying areas.

[Robert Edmonds]

I origionally said maybe due to some of the storm's weakening, but if I could I would change my vote to no it is not over hyped after seeing some of the aftermath.

[Cole McConnell]

I second that.

[Rob_Davis]

Yeah, since it took so long (half a day) for the media to really get in gear and be able to present the big picture, a lot of us got lulled into believing that the worst had not come to pass. After all, reporters were still walking down a perfectly dry and clear Bourbon Street within moments of the wind and rain passing, so it couldn't be that bad, right? Of course, once the footage started coming in a few hours later, we realized the horrible truth.

[Anonymous]

I agree...I didn't think it was that bad in the immediate aftermath. I guess we all found out otherwise, didn't we?

[Adam Taylor]

Yah me too it took awhile for the scale of it to sink in. Now I relize that this is just horrible. Very bad situation down there. I pray that they can straiting things out fast.

[B Ozanne]

Not only did it a take awhile for the damage to become clear, New Orleans wasn't flooded yesterday. It wasn't even flooded last night. Its flooded now and still flooding. The worst case scenario for New Orleans is now unfolding.

[Anonymous]

I knew today would reveal a different picture. The same thing happened with Andrew in Miami. Everyone felt relieved because Miami escaped severe damage, but then.... they looked to their neighbors to the south. A very different picture. The flooding makes this one so much worse than Andrew.

The flooding in New Orleans today... now that was totally unexpected. I worried about the Mississippi's level rising, but I didn't expect New Orleans to get hammered today.

[Gabe Garfield]

Not only did it a take awhile for the damage to become clear, New Orleans wasn't flooded yesterday. It wasn't even flooded last night. Its flooded now and still flooding. The worst case scenario for New Orleans is now unfolding.

This is true...in some ways, this is like the World Trade Center attacks. We saw the airplanes go in, and we were horrified because we knew the fate of those in the planes and those who were above the point of impact in each tower. Then our horror turned to disbelief when we saw the South Tower collapse. We knew that in that moment, many people had just lost their lives.

In the same way, the initial shock of this event has given way to horror as we realize that many people will lose their lives, and there isn't much we can do about it. The only thing we can do is pray that God is merciful.

Gabe

[Kevin Bowman]

No, just watch CNN if you need to be convinced

[rdale]

Remember - hype means you exaggerate or mislead people. I don't know if you can say anyone went overboard in coverage or warning those ahead of time, so I'm not sure how people can say this was "hyped" or especially "overhyped"!

[Sam Sagnella]

New Orleans is filling up like a bathtub. If anyone thinks this has been hyped up I'm gonna need convincing.