Bad News for South Florida?

[Sam Sagnella]

One look at the current IR satellite image tells us that we are no longer dealing with the 17kt TD we had earlier today. Rita is looking quite healthy as of 2345z and the LLC appears to have reformed to the north underneath constant bursts of deep convection. The 00z update from the TPC has the latitude at 22.7N and has (very importantly) changed the direction of motion from W to NW; I would say if this system can make it north of 23.5N then we'll be looking at a mainland FL impact. With lessening shear forecast over the next couple days, hot SSTs, and a major metro area in its possible path, I fear this could deal S FL a pretty significant blow. From what I hear, the local media is getting everyone down there's attention, so thats at least some good news, but is anyone else worried about this cyclone's pre-Gulf legacy?

[B Ozanne]

Those convective flares this afternoon were impressive, I was thinking the same thing you were Sam.

What's more interesting is the latest BAMM run. It may not be the best hurricane model, but its a recent run, and the track shouldn't be ingnored.

[Sam Sagnella]

The 06z GFDL brings Rita to 921mb ( :shock: ) and ~140kts (Cat5) while it is still EAST of the Keys. FWIW.

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by Sam Sagnella
The 06z GFDL brings Rita to 921mb ( :shock: ) and ~140kts (Cat5) while it is still EAST of the Keys. FWIW.

What are everybody's sources for these intensity forecasts? I'm still working on my punch card forecast model over here :).

Edit: Thanks for those sites Jeff, very helpful.

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by B Ozanne+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(B Ozanne)</div><!--QuoteBegin-Sam Sagnella
The 06z GFDL brings Rita to 921mb ( :shock: ) and ~140kts (Cat5) while it is still EAST of the Keys. FWIW.

What are everybody's sources for these intensity forecasts? I'm still working on my punch card forecast model over here :).[/b]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/gui...dance/index.htm (http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm) (click the intensity link)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Andrew Khan]

Am I starting to see an eye in Rita? I think I am beginning to see the rain tapering off in the center..

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan
Am I starting to see an eye in Rita? I think I am beginning to see the rain tapering off in the center..

By the looks of this image, I would say there is a definite eye begining to form:

http://www.waveformpc.com/eye.GIF

Sorry, I couldn't resist! :lol:


Seriously though... The models do deepen this storm quite a bit, and I am guessing that it will be our next major hurricane...

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div><!--QuoteBegin-Andrew Khan
Am I starting to see an eye in Rita? I think I am beginning to see the rain tapering off in the center..

By the looks of this image, I would say there is a definite eye begining to form:

http://www.waveformpc.com/eye.GIF

Sorry, I couldn't resist! :lol:


Seriously though... The models do deepen this storm quite a bit, and I am guessing that it will be our next major hurricane...[/b]

LOL, yep that has GOT to be an eye! If it intensifies then we could have a problem though, like rdewey said.

[David Wolfson]

Ahhhhhhh! I knew the Illuminati were behind these hurricanes! :shock:

Seriously, don't see an eye quite yet in the satellite pics -- infrared or WV. The sun set on the vis a little while ago. :wink:

[Andrew Khan]

The eye does not always appear at it’s beginning phase, on the satellite view. Infrared scans can confirm it, even before it makes a physical appearance.

[B Ozanne]

There is a clear eye-looking opening in the short wave IR. I'm not that familiar with looking at the short wave scans. Maybe somebody else can confirm that.

Useful link to the Cuban Weather Service Radar: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=...LAS&TB1=RADARES (http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES)

Edit: After watching the short wave IR loop its not an eye, just a dry spot. Not saying there isn't an eye there, at 2025est there was none visible in the shortwave IR though.

[Anthony Silver]

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div><!--QuoteBegin-Andrew Khan
Am I starting to see an eye in Rita? I think I am beginning to see the rain tapering off in the center..

By the looks of this image, I would say there is a definite eye begining to form:

http://www.waveformpc.com/eye.GIF

Sorry, I couldn't resist! :lol:


Seriously though... The models do deepen this storm quite a bit, and I am guessing that it will be our next major hurricane...[/b]


Yeah, by the looks of things, this storm could become a monster once it gets out in the Gulf. The NHC 5 day cone has Southern Louisiana shaded, which is a very bad thing for recovery efforts. However it doesnt appear that it will make a direct strike there. It looks like SE Texas will get the brunt of it.

[Justin Turcotte]

Semblence of a center developing on Miami 88D Long Range:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-...r/si.kamx.shtml (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml)

A better view on Cuba Radar:
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=...CIENFUEGOSA.GIF (http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/03Cienfuegos/CIENFUEGOSA.GIF)
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=...maguey/MaxA.gif (http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/MaxA.gif)

[JP Santiago]

Rita has been upgraded to a Cat 1 hurricane at 915am EDT.......

[Andrew Khan]

I am wondering, what category do you think Rita will get, once it gets into the Gulf-how high do you think she'll get? I'm curious.

[JP Santiago]

2pm EDT, she just got upgraded to Cat 2.......... :shock: