Hurricane Alpha? -- contest

[Tim Vasquez]

What say we make some bets on if/when Tropical Storm Alpha will reach named status. To make it interesting, I'll toss in a signed copy of Storm Chasing Handbook for the person who guesses closest. If you don't pick a time, I'll assume it's 0000 UTC. I'll also make this a poll so the naysayers can be heard.

I don't chase hurricanes, but Alpha pans out and makes landfall, I'd have to go chase it just to say I was there. I'm not sure the paths are that optimal that late in the season; if I recall correctly they either stay way down south or get sucked up along the Atlantic seaboard.

Tim

[Khristian Snyder]

I say October 6 at 18z

[Jeff Snyder]

I voted "There will be no Alpha"... We have 4 more named storms to go, and climo indicates rapidly decreasing tropical activity through the next two months (refer to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/peakofseason.gif ). The central and eastern Atlantic hasn't been very conducive to tropical cyclone formation for most of this season, as evidenced by the relatively small number of "cape verde" type of storms this year. More often, healthy tropical waves would traverse the rather hostile environment (lots of dry air and shear) in the central and eastern Atlantic before experiencing a more hospitable environment nearer the Antilles and east of the Bahamas.I think it'd be really COOL to see advisories for Alpha, but I'm not sure it'll happen. I'm rather 50/50 regarding the situation.

EDIT: some cool figures at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

[Jeff Lawson]

October 23, 12Z.

[Angie Norris]

I'll take Halloween at 0700Z. No particular reason why...just because 8)
I almost voted for my birthday, but Mom Nature's been sending tornadoes for that, so maybe she'll keep up the new tradition :wink:
Angie

[Sam Sagnella]

21z, October 19.

[Justin Walker]

October 21, 12z

[Robert Dewey]

October 17th @ 06Z

I would say the odds of this happening are against us, but then again, "odds" went out the window along time ago...

[Ben Leitschuh]

Nov. 2nd, 05z

[nickgrillo]

October 25th @ 12Z

[Dick McGowan]

October 29th 18z

[Dave Kaplow]

October 27th 23z

[Colin P.McIntyre]

Nov 20to 30,the way this year is going anything is possible.

[Colin P.McIntyre]

sorry 21to30 i mean

[David Schuttler]

Oct. 15th 06z

[David Wolfson]

Oct. 16th, 15Z.

[Joel Wright]

November 12th, 13Z.

[Marko Korosec]

3rd November, 12z.

[J West]

Nov. 4th

18z

[Michael P. Morris]

Nov 23, 15z

[Bryce Stone]

October 30th, 12z

[Scott Olson]

Oct 26th 18z

[Lisa Wadlow]

Oct 28 15z

[John Sickels]

November 19, 2005, 11am.

Alpha will become a tropical storm but will not reach hurricane status, topping out just under 70 MPH.

[Kevin Myatt]

Dec 25th 0z

Brief weak TS way out past Bermuda

Merry Christmas

[David Draun]

anytime on November 23.

[brody_clifton]

October 22, 1300Z

[APritchard]

I'd say October 23rd at 6Z

[Kurt Silvey]

Nov 8th 0200z

[Helge Tuschy]

21. November 12 Z

[T. W. Miller]

November 22, 19Z

[MClarkson]

11 am, november 10.

[Tony Laubach]

Since its been an odd year all around, I'll go with an odd date... November 20; 1400z - My birthdate! :lol:

[Natalie Kilpatrick]

I'll say October 29 1100Z

[Carrie Halliday]

I am like 0 for 99 this year in guestimating, but what the hey.
My luck could change. I doubt it but I will say...

Nov. 8th 1300Z.

[Tim Vasquez]

Just occurred to me I'll probably have to "lock" this contest in a week or so, so that no one calls it at the last minute.

[David Dildine]

Wait! Gi'me a rope or somethin' ... let me slip my vote in before I loose Ohio again. Hyperventilating... ::huff huff:: Now I'm flustered. Februa... NO! Okay, ready...

29 November 2100Z

I do submit we're in for a big lull what with that upper low pussyfooting around out there. I wish my dryer didn't take so long. ::Yawn::

[Justin Turcotte]

Nov 13 @ 0600 UTC

[Tony Cook]

Nov 1, 17Z

[Chuck Vlcek]

November 14, 12Z

[Tim Vasquez]

To make things fair, the contest is now closed for new entries. Good luck to all!

[Jeff Snyder]

Advisories will be initiated at 5pm. So, the winning date and time is: October 22 at 21z.

And the winner is....
1. brody_clifton -- October 22, 1300Z -- Off by 8 hours.
2. APritchard -- October 23, 0600z -- Off by 9 hours.
3. Jeff Lawson -- October 23, 1200z -- Off by 15 hours.
4. Justin Walker -- October 21, 1200z -- Off by 33 hours (1 day, 9 hours)

[Tim Vasquez]

Thread is unlocked now (was locked for the purposes of keeping out late entries). Thanks Jeff for tallying that up. Unless there is a mistake here, brody is the winner and I'll E-mail him to get him his book. Congrats! What a season; many of us thought we'd never make Alpha.

Also our members got the prediction perfect, selecting the right 10-day window for the majority vote. Great bunch of forecasters here.

Tim